Time for some regional analysis - many thanks to Wipneus for providing the data in usable format.
Let me just mention I agree with the sentiment echoed above. It seems PIOMAS is overestimating thickness in the region above Greenland, even considering that PIOMAS models ridges that skew the average thickness upwards. However, with no data available for current thickness of typical floes in the vicinity, despite the Polarstern passing that way recently, this criticism remains in the realm of intuition.
Onto the data.
* CAB loss in H2Aug was a respectable 693 km3, passing the losses of 2012 and 2007 by a smidgeon, though a far second to 2016's 888 km3 loss. Remaining CAB volume for the date passed 2019 and is now 2nd lowest. Highest past losses from now until the minimum were 328 km3 (in 2008) and 258 km3 (in 2012).
* CAA losses slowed sharply, both because of continuous import from the CAB through the PGAS "garlic press", and the refusal of the ice in the main channel to disappear. It seems current volume will remain rather stable going into the minimum.
* Beaufort losses were also far too slow considering the magnitude of remaining volume. Unless the Beaufort arm disappears very soon, anomalous volume will remain through the minimum. Loss from now to minimum should be 50-70 km3, up to 100 km3 in an aggressive scenario.
* Greenland Sea volume had already crashed in H1Aug, and remained stable in this period. The remaining volume is at the lowest level normal for the minimum, except for 2017 and 2018 which were highly anomalous in the Greenland Sea.
* Remaining volume in other seas is a meager 25 km3.
Summing expectations moving forward, with total remaining volume at 4311 km3:
* Passing 2011's 4302 km3 is guaranteed, thus a 3rd place finish is secured.
* It's easily plausible to lose a further 259 km3 and pass 2019's 4052 km3 for a 2nd place finish.
* It is reasonable with a late minimum scenario to break the 4000 km3 barrier.
* However passing 2012's 3673 km3 appears to be impossible, excepting some melting disaster/miracle.
Click to enlarge.