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Author Topic: Latest PIOMAS update (September, mid-monthly update)  (Read 1489596 times)

Wipneus

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Re: Latest PIOMAS update (March, mid-monthly update)
« Reply #3600 on: March 18, 2021, 01:54:09 PM »
PIOMAS has updated the gridded thickness data up to the 15th of March. Volume calculated from that thickness was 21.72[1000km3]. That is the fifth lowest value compared with previous years.

Here is the animation.

Wipneus

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Re: Latest PIOMAS update (March, mid-monthly update)
« Reply #3601 on: March 18, 2021, 01:54:57 PM »
Updated Fram volume export graph.

Wipneus

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Re: Latest PIOMAS update (March, mid-monthly update)
« Reply #3602 on: March 18, 2021, 01:56:54 PM »
Updated volume and volume-anomaly graphs.

Wipneus

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Re: Latest PIOMAS update (March, mid-monthly update)
« Reply #3603 on: March 18, 2021, 01:58:35 PM »
Some people have good use for the updated regional data files.

daily:
https://sites.google.com/site/arctischepinguin/home/piomas/data/PIOMAS-regional.txt.gz

gerontocrat

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Re: Latest PIOMAS update (March, mid-monthly update)
« Reply #3604 on: March 18, 2021, 06:35:00 PM »
So here is the PIOMAS data in the format I use for JAXA extent data

PIOMAS  Volume as at 15 Mar 2021  21,715 KM3

- Volume gain from minimum on this date is 17,686 km3, 874 km3, (5%),  more than the 10 year average of 16,812 km3.

- Volume is at position #5 in the satellite record

- Volume is  352 km3 LESS than 2013
- Volume is  2,070 km3 MORE than 2017
- Volume is  327 km3 LESS than 2020
- Volume is  43 km3 LESS than 2010's average

Projections.

Average remaining volume gain (of the last 10 years) would produce a maximum volume in April 2021 of 22,882 km3, 2,100 km3 above the 2017 record low maximum volume of 20,782 km3.
_____________________________________________________
Daily volume increase well above average in the first 2 weeks of March
___________________________________________________________
N.B. Click on image  for full-size#
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The Walrus

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Re: Latest PIOMAS update (March, mid-monthly update)
« Reply #3605 on: March 18, 2021, 07:28:19 PM »
What is intrigue with the volume anomaly graph is that 19 out of 20 years over the past two decades show a fairly even anomaly from Jan. through May.  2021 was the exception, starting with a higher anomaly in Jan. and decreasing significantly until March.  Any thoughts?

kassy

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Re: Latest PIOMAS update (March, mid-monthly update)
« Reply #3606 on: March 19, 2021, 10:52:11 AM »
It is also very close to 2013. This is just delayed ice growth.
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BornFromTheVoid

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Re: Latest PIOMAS update (March, mid-monthly update)
« Reply #3607 on: March 19, 2021, 11:25:05 AM »
Some of my contributions. Stand out is the higher volume along the Russian Arctic coast. Unlikely to see a repeat of the early opening last year
I recently joined the twitter thing, where I post more analysis, pics and animations: @Icy_Samuel

gerontocrat

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Re: Latest PIOMAS update (March, mid-monthly update)
« Reply #3608 on: March 19, 2021, 02:06:27 PM »
It is also very close to 2013. This is just delayed ice growth.
As can be shown in the Laptev, where refreeze was very late. (Ignore erratic thickness data in September 20. It happens when both volume and area are very low).

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gerontocrat

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Re: Latest PIOMAS update (March, mid-monthly update)
« Reply #3609 on: March 19, 2021, 02:48:14 PM »
Here are some thickness graphs to Mid-march.

Currently at 2010's average as near as makes no difference.

click to enlarge images
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Wipneus

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Re: Latest PIOMAS update (April)
« Reply #3610 on: April 05, 2021, 07:46:51 PM »
PIOMAS gridded thickness data was updated. Volume (calculated from thickness) at 31st of March was 22.47[1000km3], which is the 6th lowest value for that day of the year.

Here is the animation.

Wipneus

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Re: Latest PIOMAS update (April)
« Reply #3611 on: April 05, 2021, 07:49:22 PM »
Updated volume and volume-anomaly graphs.

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Re: Latest PIOMAS update (April)
« Reply #3612 on: April 05, 2021, 07:50:27 PM »
Updated Fram volume export graph.

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Re: Latest PIOMAS update (April)
« Reply #3613 on: April 05, 2021, 07:53:59 PM »
Thickness map of March 2021, compared with previous years and their diff'd.

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gerontocrat

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Re: Latest PIOMAS update (April)
« Reply #3615 on: April 05, 2021, 09:50:01 PM »
Some people have good use for the updated regional data files:
One hopes it is good use

PIOMAS  Volume as at 31 Mar 2021  22,473 KM3

- Volume gain from minimum on this date is 18,444 km3, 879 km3, (5%),  more than the 10 year average of 17,565 km3.

- Volume is at position #6 in the satellite record

- Volume is  377 km3 LESS than 2013
- Volume is  2,089 km3 MORE than 2017
- Volume is  220 km3 LESS than 2020
- Volume is  72 km3 LESS than 2010's average
Projections.

Average remaining volume gain (of the last 10 years) would produce a maximum volume in April 2021 of 22,887 km3, 2,105 km3 above the 2017 record low maximum volume of 20,782 km3.
___________________________________________________________
N.B. Click on image  for full-size
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gerontocrat

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Re: Latest PIOMAS update (April)
« Reply #3616 on: April 05, 2021, 10:06:06 PM »
We talk about pros & cons of volume, area, and extent a lot. I attach the graphs of those 3 measures for the CAB (as defined by Wipneus).

Summer ice volume minimum of the CAB is now well under half of what it was in the 1980's.
Extent - at most around 30% loss, area approaching 50% loss.

The winter / spring volume maximum is now 25% lower than in the 1980's. Extent and area - just about zilch change.
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gerontocrat

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Re: Latest PIOMAS update (April)
« Reply #3617 on: April 05, 2021, 10:47:51 PM »
I attach the March Monthly Average Volume + deviations from the trend graph.

The March 21 average of 21,628 km3 is 5th lowest in the satellite record, 329 km3 less than March 2020, but 742 km3 above the linear trend value for March '21, and only 85 km3 below the 2010's March average.

click to enlarge
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VeliAlbertKallio

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Re: Latest PIOMAS update (April)
« Reply #3618 on: April 06, 2021, 12:01:11 AM »
Central Arctic is showing ice volume weakness in parallel to 2017 & 2018, much of overall outcome of ice volume minimum depends on peripheral seas and coastal seas if volume is going to hold on.
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The Walrus

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Re: Latest PIOMAS update (April)
« Reply #3619 on: April 06, 2021, 01:30:43 AM »
I attach the March Monthly Average Volume + deviations from the trend graph.

The March 21 average of 21,628 km3 is 5th lowest in the satellite record, 329 km3 less than March 2020, but 742 km3 above the linear trend value for March '21, and only 85 km3 below the 2010's March average.

click to enlarge


Will the 16-year deviation oscillation continue? 

BornFromTheVoid

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Re: Latest PIOMAS update (April)
« Reply #3620 on: April 06, 2021, 09:32:46 AM »
A few images from myself
I recently joined the twitter thing, where I post more analysis, pics and animations: @Icy_Samuel

Wipneus

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Re: Latest PIOMAS update (April, mid-monthly update)
« Reply #3621 on: April 19, 2021, 10:21:45 AM »
PIOMAS has updated the gridded thickness data to day 105 (normally the 15th of April). Volume (calculated from thickness) on that day was 22.4[1000km3], which is third lowest for that day.

Here is the animation for April so far.

Wipneus

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Re: Latest PIOMAS update (April, mid-monthly update)
« Reply #3622 on: April 19, 2021, 10:23:17 AM »
Updated volume and volume-anomaly graphs.

Wipneus

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Re: Latest PIOMAS update (April, mid-monthly update)
« Reply #3623 on: April 19, 2021, 10:27:00 AM »
The updated Fram volume-export graph.

Wipneus

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Re: Latest PIOMAS update (April, mid-monthly update)
« Reply #3624 on: April 19, 2021, 10:28:32 AM »
Some people have good use for the updated regional data files.

daily:
https://sites.google.com/site/arctischepinguin/home/piomas/data/PIOMAS-regional.txt.gz

BornFromTheVoid

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Re: Latest PIOMAS update (April, mid-monthly update)
« Reply #3625 on: April 19, 2021, 11:57:13 AM »
Here's a few graphs from me.
I recently joined the twitter thing, where I post more analysis, pics and animations: @Icy_Samuel

gerontocrat

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Re: Latest PIOMAS update (April, mid-monthly update)
« Reply #3626 on: April 19, 2021, 12:56:13 PM »
PIOMAS  Volume as at 15 Apr 2021  22,403 KM3

- Volume gain from minimum on this date is 18,374 km3, 464 km3, (3%),  more than the 10 year average of 17,910 km3.

- Volume is at position #3 in the satellite record

- Volume is  741 km3 LESS than 2012
- Volume is  1,664 km3 MORE than 2017
- Volume is  565 km3 LESS than 2020
- Volume is  472 km3 LESS than 2010's average
Projections.

From the current maximum of 22,550 km3 on the 3rd April, volume has declined by the 15th April by 147 km3. In only 2 of the last 10 years has volume gain from the 15th April been enough to give a new higher maximum.

So the question is -does the sentence below hold good.

Average remaining volume gain (of the last 10 years) would produce a maximum volume in April 2021 of 22,550 km3, 1,768 km3 above the 2017 record low maximum volume of 20,782 km3.

If that is so then the maximum occurred 12 days earlier than in any of the previous 10 years, which would certainly count as an event.

see the 1st table attached.
___________________________________________________________
N.B. Click on image  for full-size
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Wipneus

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Re: Latest PIOMAS update (May)
« Reply #3627 on: May 05, 2021, 10:06:51 AM »
PIOMAS has updated the gridded thickness data up to the 30th of April. Volume calculated from that thickness was 22.4[1000km3]. That is the sixth lowest value compared with previous years.

Here is the animation.

Wipneus

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Re: Latest PIOMAS update (May)
« Reply #3628 on: May 05, 2021, 10:08:08 AM »
The updated Fram volume export graph.

Wipneus

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Re: Latest PIOMAS update (May)
« Reply #3629 on: May 05, 2021, 10:10:12 AM »
Updated volume and volume-anomaly graphs.

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Re: Latest PIOMAS update (May)
« Reply #3630 on: May 05, 2021, 10:14:07 AM »
Thickness map, compare with previous years and their diffs for day 120.

Wipneus

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Paul

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Re: Latest PIOMAS update (May)
« Reply #3632 on: May 05, 2021, 10:53:40 AM »
Thickness map, compare with previous years and their diffs for day 120.

Always been wondering this but why does the map for the 30th April 2021 on the post I quoted does not match up with the map showing in post #3627, surely that impacts on anaomoly charts you posted?

BornFromTheVoid

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Re: Latest PIOMAS update (May)
« Reply #3633 on: May 05, 2021, 12:29:54 PM »
A few graphs from myself. Thanks as always for the data, Wipneus.
I recently joined the twitter thing, where I post more analysis, pics and animations: @Icy_Samuel

gerontocrat

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Re: Latest PIOMAS update (May)
« Reply #3634 on: May 05, 2021, 02:04:38 PM »
Let's hope this is good use of Wipneus's data...

PIOMAS  Volume as at 30 Apr 2021  22,428 KM3

- Volume loss from maximum on this date is 122 km3, 154 km3, (56%),  less than the 10 year average of 276 km3.

- Volume is at position #6 in the satellite record

- Volume is  671 km3 LESS than 2012
- Volume is  1,748 km3 MORE than 2017
- Volume is  116 km3 LESS than 2020
- Volume is  239 km3 LESS than 2010's average
Projections.

Average remaining volume loss (of the last 10 years) would produce a minimum volume in Sept 2021 of 4,669 km3, 996 km3 above the 2012 record low minimum volume of 3,673 km3.
_______________________________________________________
When NSIDC area and extent data say melting has stalled, so does the PIOMAS data
___________________________________________________________
N.B. Click on image  for full-size
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
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gerontocrat

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Re: Latest PIOMAS update (May)
« Reply #3635 on: May 05, 2021, 02:14:13 PM »
Wipneus gives us monthly data sea by sea going back to 1979.

here are three graphs from that data - High Arctic, Peripheral seas, and the CAB.

Note how the High Arctic maximum volume is not yet, while volume in the Peripheral seas is already in decline.
Note also how this year the peripheral seas are losing volume quickly, while in the High Arctic volume remains above the 2010's average.

However, Central Arctic Basin (CAB) volume remains well below the 2010's average.
« Last Edit: May 05, 2021, 05:06:02 PM by gerontocrat »
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Glen Koehler

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Re: Latest PIOMAS update (May)
« Reply #3636 on: May 05, 2021, 06:40:16 PM »
    Must be that thick ice along shore of the ESS skewing the numbers.  At latitude 72 I don't see that ice lasting until Sept.  So when/if it melts, with a weaker CAB and Atlantic front attack on the NP, the ASI total at minimum could be very low.  All depends on the 2021 summer weather of course.  The ASI looks wobbly and less resistant to what the weather brings than previous years.
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Re: Latest PIOMAS update (May)
« Reply #3637 on: May 05, 2021, 11:11:17 PM »
Always been wondering this but why does the map for the 30th April 2021 on the post I quoted does not match up with the map showing in post #3627?

#3627 shows the first frame of animation. You should be comparing with the final frame of that animation.

However having just done that myself, there does indeed still seem to be a difference.
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Re: Latest PIOMAS update (May)
« Reply #3638 on: May 06, 2021, 12:26:46 AM »
Always been wondering this but why does the map for the 30th April 2021 on the post I quoted does not match up with the map showing in post #3627?

#3627 shows the first frame of animation. You should be comparing with the final frame of that animation.

However having just done that myself, there does indeed still seem to be a difference.

Yep I should of said at the end of the animation, the difference is pretty obvious so is that having an affect on the anaomoly maps?

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Re: Latest PIOMAS update (May)
« Reply #3639 on: May 06, 2021, 09:40:29 AM »
Hi Paul.
Is the problem a scaling and projection difference?....giving an optical illusion of difference.

Would have to map both on the same background map to see if that might be correct.
Afraid I am too lazy :-\
all the best
Dave

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Re: Latest PIOMAS update (May)
« Reply #3640 on: May 08, 2021, 10:28:54 AM »
Thickness map, compare with previous years and their diffs for day 120.



That seems to be the thickness map for 30 January 2021, rather than 30 April 2021?  Compare with the maps you posted upthread a few months ago:

https://i.imgur.com/T3kFfuI.gif

Jim Hunt

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Re: Latest PIOMAS update (May)
« Reply #3641 on: May 08, 2021, 11:11:18 AM »
That seems to be the thickness map for 30 January 2021, rather than 30 April 2021?

It does indeed. Well spotted!

Here's the last frame of the January animation from the GWC archives:

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Wipneus

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Re: Latest PIOMAS update (May mid-monthly update)
« Reply #3642 on: May 19, 2021, 08:59:33 AM »
PIOMAS has updated the gridded thickness data up to the 15th of May. Volume calculated from that thickness was 21.8[1000km3]. That is the seventh lowest value compared with previous years.

Here is the animation for May so far.

Wipneus

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Re: Latest PIOMAS update (May mid-monthly update)
« Reply #3643 on: May 19, 2021, 09:06:27 AM »
Update volume and volume-anomaly graphs.

Wipneus

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Re: Latest PIOMAS update (May mid-monthly update)
« Reply #3644 on: May 19, 2021, 09:37:32 AM »
Updated Fram volume export graph.

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Re: Latest PIOMAS update (May mid-monthly update)
« Reply #3645 on: May 19, 2021, 09:37:55 AM »
Some people have good use for the updated regional data files.

daily:
https://sites.google.com/site/arctischepinguin/home/piomas/data/PIOMAS-regional.txt.gz

Wipneus

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Re: Latest PIOMAS update (May mid-monthly update)
« Reply #3646 on: May 19, 2021, 10:10:27 AM »
Sorry for the mess-up with the thickness maps. It must have mistaken 30 (day of the month) where 120 (day of year) was required. It is a manual entry, which clearly needs to be automated.

Anyway, here are the corrected maps for day 120, 30th April 2021.

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Re: Latest PIOMAS update (May mid-monthly update)
« Reply #3647 on: May 19, 2021, 11:01:39 AM »
Some numbers to compare.

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Re: Latest PIOMAS update (May mid-monthly update)
« Reply #3648 on: May 19, 2021, 12:33:17 PM »
PIOMAS  Volume as at 15 May 2021  21,796 KM3

- Volume loss from maximum on this date is 754 km3, 407 km3, (35%),  less than the 10 year average of 1,161 km3.

- Volume is at position #7 in the satellite record

- Volume is  215 km3 LESS than 2012
- Volume is  1,674 km3 MORE than 2017
- Volume is  68 km3 MORE than 2020
- Volume is  64 km3 MORE than 2010's average
Projections.

Average remaining volume loss (of the last 10 years) would produce a minimum volume in Sept 2021 of 4,922 km3, 1,249 km3 above the 2012 record low minimum volume of 3,673 km3.

This minimum would be 8th lowest in the 43 year satellite record.
___________________________________________
Note how volume has crept up above the 2010's average and 2020.
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N.B. Click on image  for full-size
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

gerontocrat

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Re: Latest PIOMAS update (May mid-monthly update)
« Reply #3649 on: May 19, 2021, 01:41:37 PM »
PIOMAS data from Wipneus - some more

The attached graphs show how the High Arctic is the main driver of the slow start to the melting season.

Note also that average thickness increases - area loss is happening but this is mainly of thin ice while air temperatures are low enough for ice to thicken in places especially in the High Arctic.

click to enlarge images
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)