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Steven

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Re: Latest PIOMAS update (September, mid-monthly update)
« Reply #3800 on: June 09, 2022, 09:10:03 PM »
I've also reproduced Wipneus' Fram export volume numbers.  Here is a spreadsheet with my calculated daily values from 1979 to 2022:

https://www.dropbox.com/s/lnwru1n95jc32r2/piomas_fram_export.csv

(Values are negative if there is import rather than export).

And here is a graph showing the cumulative sea ice volume export through Fram Strait from the beginning of the year:


gerontocrat

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Re: Latest PIOMAS update (September, mid-monthly update)
« Reply #3801 on: June 10, 2022, 01:45:25 PM »
& here is the May analysis using the standard "JAXA" layout

PIOMAS  Volume as at 31 May 2022  20,233 KM3

- Volume loss from maximum on this date is 2,992 km3, 28 km3, (1%),  less than the 10 year average of 3,020 km3.

- Volume is at position #10 in the satellite record

- Volume is  642 km3 MORE than 2012
- Volume is  2,137 km3 MORE than 2017
- Volume is  532 km3 MORE than 2020
- Volume is  419 km3 MORE than 2010's average

Projections.

Average remaining volume loss (of the last 10 years) would produce a minimum volume in Sept 2021 of 5,266 km3, 1,593 km3 above the 2012 record low minimum volume of 3,673 km3.

This minimum would be 10th lowest in the 43 year satellite record.
_____________________________________________________________
The PIOMAS data reflects the slow May sea ice loss shown in the extent and area data
___________________________________________________________
N.B. Click on image  for full-size
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be cause

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Re: Latest PIOMAS update (September, mid-monthly update)
« Reply #3802 on: June 10, 2022, 03:34:15 PM »
If PIOMAS is accurate why does it show 3m ice north of the New Siberian Islands when Worldview paints a very different picture ?
2007 + 5 = 2012 + 4 = 2016 + 3 = 2019 + 2 = 2021 + 1 .. it's 2022 !

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oren

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Re: Latest PIOMAS update (September, mid-monthly update)
« Reply #3803 on: June 10, 2022, 03:36:37 PM »
Do recall that PIOMAS is a model and can easily go wrong. It tracks ice movement and models ridging, this is probably the reason for the thick ice shown against the islands.
OTOH, Worldview is 2D, one cannot always tell ice thickness from its surface.

be cause

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Re: Latest PIOMAS update (September, mid-monthly update)
« Reply #3804 on: June 10, 2022, 04:21:07 PM »
that would suggest PIOMAS is no better than HYCOM . There has been OPEN WATER there for weeks , not 3m thick ice . I just plcked that area as a random test of it's accuracy . It failed badly .
2007 + 5 = 2012 + 4 = 2016 + 3 = 2019 + 2 = 2021 + 1 .. it's 2022 !

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Steven

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Re: Latest PIOMAS update (September, mid-monthly update)
« Reply #3805 on: June 10, 2022, 07:46:52 PM »
If PIOMAS is accurate why does it show 3m ice north of the New Siberian Islands when Worldview paints a very different picture ?

that would suggest PIOMAS is no better than HYCOM . There has been OPEN WATER there for weeks , not 3m thick ice . I just plcked that area as a random test of it's accuracy . It failed badly .

I don't see a problem near the New Siberian Islands.

The JAXA image below shows the sea ice concentration on 31 May, which is the same date as the PIOMAS image.  (JAXA image rotated 180 degrees for easy comparison.) 

In the first 10 days of June, the open water near the New Siberian Islands expanded greatly due to southerly winds drifting the ice away from the coast.  That doesn't mean the ice melted out.

Also note there may be some minor artifacts from the way I created the PIOMAS image.  PIOMAS uses a peculiar grid, which I mapped onto the NSIDC grid to create the images.  But this grid mapping is not one-to-one and there are some minor differences in the land masks and due to interpolation of missing pixels etc.

gerontocrat

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Re: Latest PIOMAS update (September, mid-monthly update)
« Reply #3806 on: June 12, 2022, 11:17:19 AM »
I have produced a couple of graphs and a table from Steven's data to supplement his graph.

The first graph shows the daily Fram export for the 1980, 1990's, 2000's and 2010's, and 2022. And it is a mess. So I did it again using the 7 day trailing average - which looks a bit more useful.
I also attach a table of yearly totals.

The 2022 data shows March Fram export very much below average, with significant Fram IMPORT in mid-March.

ps: The trend shown in the FRAM export 10 year average totals is of a decline in FAM export. The 2010's average is 26% below that of the 1980's. Does this reflect overall thinning of the ice sheet and especially the loss of thick MYI?

click images to enlarge
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gerontocrat

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Re: Latest PIOMAS update (September, mid-monthly update)
« Reply #3807 on: June 12, 2022, 03:26:36 PM »
I also attach a variation on Steven's cumulative Fram Export graph, looking at Fram export for the 1980, 1990's, 2000's and 2010's. I also include 2012, 2018 and 2022.

The most obvious comment is the reduction over time in Fram export.
My second comment is that individual years are highly variable.

And lastly 2022 looks so far as a lowish year for Fram export

I also atttach a revised table of annual averages, revised due to an error by me in the 1980's calculation. It shows a greater fall in annual Fram export from the 1980's to the 2010's.

click image to enlarge
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Glen Koehler

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Re: Latest PIOMAS update (September, mid-monthly update)
« Reply #3808 on: June 12, 2022, 06:39:01 PM »
<snip> I've also reproduced Wipneus' Fram export volume numbers.  Here is a spreadsheet with my calculated daily values from 1979 to 2022:

https://www.dropbox.com/s/lnwru1n95jc32r2/piomas_fram_export.csv
    Thanks for the Fram Export data Steven.
« Last Edit: June 12, 2022, 06:53:30 PM by Glen Koehler »
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uniquorn

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Re: Latest PIOMAS update (September, mid-monthly update)
« Reply #3809 on: June 13, 2022, 01:21:49 AM »
1. CAB (left scale) with 365 day moving avg vs Fram export(right scale) with 30day and 365day moving avg.

2. CAB vs cumulative Fram export(sep21-sep20)
« Last Edit: June 13, 2022, 01:36:08 AM by uniquorn »

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Re: Latest PIOMAS update (September, mid-monthly update)
« Reply #3810 on: June 13, 2022, 12:33:03 PM »
I've also reproduced Wipneus' Fram export volume numbers.  Here is a spreadsheet with my calculated daily values from 1979 to 2022:

https://www.dropbox.com/s/lnwru1n95jc32r2/piomas_fram_export.csv

(Values are negative if there is import rather than export).
<>

The Fram export data has very wide daily variations, probably due to the low number of data points. If the data is calculated based on the image below then 18 modelled data points, half of them often open water, should perhaps be taken with a pinch of salt. ;)  Thanks again for the number crunching Steven.

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Re: Latest PIOMAS update (September, mid-monthly update)
« Reply #3811 on: June 13, 2022, 06:19:32 PM »
1. CAB (left scale) with 365 day moving avg vs Fram export(right scale) with 30day and 365day moving avg.

2. CAB vs cumulative Fram export(sep21-sep20)

A 1441-day moving average might be better, knowing that perturbations in Arctic ice usually regress to the mean in about 2 years. A period twice the length of regression to the mean.

Steven

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Re: Latest PIOMAS update (September, mid-monthly update)
« Reply #3812 on: June 13, 2022, 07:37:24 PM »
The Fram export data has very wide daily variations, probably due to the low number of data points. If the data is calculated based on the image below then 18 modelled data points, half of them often open water, should perhaps be taken with a pinch of salt. ;)

Regarding the calculation: PIOMAS has 18 grid cells along the Fram boundary line.  Each grid cell is 2-dimensional and is modeled to have an internal distribution of sea ice thicknesses within the cell.  The Fram calculations use only the average thickness within the grid cell, as well as its sea ice velocity component perpendicular to the Fram boundary line. 

This is the same calculation as Wipneus used.

I'm not sure if a model with higher resolution would have less fluctuations in the daily Fram export data.  Weather is volatile and wind direction can reverse from one day to the next.

Steven

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Re: Latest PIOMAS update (September, mid-monthly update)
« Reply #3813 on: June 20, 2022, 09:38:13 PM »
There has been a mid-month update of the PIOMAS gridded data. 

PIOMAS volume for 15 June 2022 is 17.367k km3, which is 9th lowest for the date. 

Volume loss over the first half of June 2022 is 2.866k km3, which is slightly more than the average loss over the past 10 years (2.820k km3).

Here is a spreadsheet with the daily volume values for 1979-2022:
https://www.dropbox.com/s/4p5w1alhsfvtput/piomas-daily-volume.csv

I've also updated the csv-files with daily regional volume and daily Fram export, see upthread for the links.
« Last Edit: June 20, 2022, 09:45:44 PM by Steven »

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Re: Latest PIOMAS update (September, mid-monthly update)
« Reply #3814 on: June 20, 2022, 09:45:29 PM »
Some graphics:

PIOMAS volume anomalies:


Sea ice thickness on 15 June 2022:


Thickness loss over the first half of June 2022:


Thickness anomalies vs 2012-2021:
https://i.imgur.com/Vp30prs.png

Cumulative Fram export:
https://i.imgur.com/YBrInHe.png

gerontocrat

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Re: Latest PIOMAS update (September, mid-monthly update)
« Reply #3815 on: June 21, 2022, 08:36:02 AM »
Thanks again. Steven

Here are two Fram Export Graphs...

- Cumulative Fram Export shows how Fram Export slows From June to September, and 2022 in June do far follows that trend.

- Daily Fram Export (7 day average to smooth the variations a bit) shows that in 2022 the only big event so far was Fram Export going into reverse gear in mid-March.

click images to enlarge
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gerontocrat

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Re: Latest PIOMAS update (September, mid-monthly update)
« Reply #3816 on: June 21, 2022, 09:04:12 AM »
PIOMAS  Volume as at 15 Jun 2022  17,367 KM3

- Volume loss from maximum on this date is 5,858 km3, 17 km3, (0%),  more than the 10 year average of 5,841 km3.

- Volume is at position #9 in the satellite record

- Volume is  1,365 km3 MORE than 2012
- Volume is  1,755 km3 MORE than 2017
- Volume is  389 km3 MORE than 2020
- Volume is  369 km3 MORE than 2010's average

Projections.

Average remaining volume loss (of the last 10 years) would produce a minimum volume in Sept 2021 of 5,221 km3, 1,548 km3 above the 2012 record low minimum volume of 3,673 km3.

This minimum would be 10th lowest in the 43 year satellite record.
___________________________________________________________
N.B. Click on image  for full-size
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gerontocrat

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Re: Latest PIOMAS update (September, mid-monthly update)
« Reply #3817 on: June 21, 2022, 09:23:09 AM »
I attach graphs of sea ice volume and thickness for the High Arctic and the Peripheral Regions of the Arctic.

They show that while Volume & thickness in the Periphery have crept below the 2010's average, in the High Arctic are both at above the 2010's average.

Note: Thickness is calculated as PIOMAS volume divided by NSIDC sea ice area

click images to enlarge
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Steven

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Re: Latest PIOMAS update (September, mid-monthly update)
« Reply #3818 on: July 06, 2022, 01:43:09 PM »
PIOMAS gridded data have been updated. 

PIOMAS volume for 30 June 2022 is 13.479k km3, which is 9th lowest for the date.  The volume loss over the second half of June 2022 is 3.888k km3, which is slightly more than the average loss for the past 10 years (3.635k km3).

I've updated the dropbox spreadsheets:
daily volume
monthly regional volume
daily regional volume
daily Fram export

gerontocrat

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Re: Latest PIOMAS update to 30 June 2022
« Reply #3819 on: July 06, 2022, 08:14:46 PM »
PIOMAS  Volume as at 30 Jun 2022  13,479 KM3

- Volume loss from maximum on this date is 9,746 km3, 271 km3, (3%),  more than the 10 year average of 9,475 km3.

- Volume is at position #9 in the satellite record

- Volume is  1,184 km3 MORE than 2012
- Volume is  1,326 km3 MORE than 2017
- Volume is  703 km3 MORE than 2020
- Volume is  609 km3 MORE than 2021

- Volume is  72 km3 MORE than 2010's average

Projections.

CORRECTION !!
Average remaining volume loss (of the last 10 years) would produce a minimum volume in Sept 2021 of 4,967 km3, 1,294 km3 above the 2012 record low minimum volume of 3,673 km3.

This minimum would be 9th lowest in the 43 year satellite record.
______________________________________________
Most of June saw an above average daily sea ice volume loss
___________________________________________________________
N.B. Click on image  for full-size
« Last Edit: July 06, 2022, 10:31:28 PM by gerontocrat »
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oren

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Re: Latest PIOMAS update (September, mid-monthly update)
« Reply #3820 on: July 06, 2022, 10:08:43 PM »
Quote
4,967 km3, -271 km3 above the 2012 record low minimum volume of 3,673 km3
Gero, there is some arithmetic error here.

gerontocrat

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Re: Latest PIOMAS update (September, mid-monthly update)
« Reply #3821 on: July 06, 2022, 10:32:18 PM »
Quote
4,967 km3, -271 km3 above the 2012 record low minimum volume of 3,673 km3
Gero, there is some arithmetic error here.
Yep, corrected. Autopilot error.

Thanks Oren
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Blizzard92

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Re: Latest PIOMAS update (September, mid-monthly update)
« Reply #3822 on: July 07, 2022, 01:53:03 PM »
My June 2022 PIOMAS figures are updated at: https://sites.uci.edu/zlabe/arctic-sea-ice-volumethickness/. Similarly, I also updated the latest mean monthly SIT from CryoSat-2 on that page (through April 2022).
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gerontocrat

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Re: Latest PIOMAS update (September, mid-monthly update)
« Reply #3823 on: July 07, 2022, 05:45:00 PM »
PIOMAS Fram Export - data from Steven

I attach a variation on Steven's Cumulative Fram export graph. 2022 Fram export remains subdued and below the 2010's average.

I also attach a daily fram export graph smoothed a bit by using 7-day trailing averages.
I also attach the unsmoothed graph to show the actual daily data - and it is a mess

as usual, click images to enlarge
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FishOutofWater

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Re: Latest PIOMAS update (September, mid-monthly update)
« Reply #3824 on: July 08, 2022, 03:04:30 AM »
Thanks, Zach. Your graphic imagery is excellent. This melting season started with more thickness than most of the years since 2010 but volume loss is going strong now. Because of the interactions between lows outside of the Arctic with the lows in the Arctic, there has been strong warm air advection over the ice that has accelerated volume loss. Thanks for the link and for linking to PolarWx on your twitter feed.
« Last Edit: July 09, 2022, 11:52:21 PM by FishOutofWater »

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Re: Latest PIOMAS update (September, mid-monthly update)
« Reply #3825 on: July 08, 2022, 03:34:19 PM »
Thank you! If anyone has any requests/suggestions for other PIOMAS graphics-diagnostics, please feel free to reach out! I just added a new one today (https://sites.uci.edu/zlabe/arctic-sea-ice-volumethickness/) showing the one month change in PIOMAS SIT (i.e., June 2022 minus May 2022).
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gerontocrat

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Re: Latest PIOMAS update (September, mid-monthly update)
« Reply #3826 on: July 08, 2022, 10:22:44 PM »
Graphs from PIOMAS data provided by Steven

I attach graphs of the 365 day averages of volume and thickness for the total Arctic, the High Arctic & the Peripheral Regions.

I also attach the map & table showing the difference between the areas of the regions of the High Arctic as analysed using NSIDC boundaries and those by Wipneus used in Steven's data, which are significant for the Laptev, ESS, Chukchi, Beaufort and Central Arctic.

This means thickness analysis of these seas cannot be done from Steven's PIOMAS regional data.

The question firstly is - will Wipneus come back at some time to resume providing data of the NSIDC data according to his mask?

If not, should the PIOMAS regional data be reanalysed according to the NSIDC mask? (if Steven is willing to do it ?)

Hoping to provoke a discussion on this.

click images to enlarge

Gero
« Last Edit: July 09, 2022, 11:41:22 AM by gerontocrat »
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Glen Koehler

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Re: Latest PIOMAS update (September, mid-monthly update)
« Reply #3827 on: July 09, 2022, 04:10:05 AM »
My vote is to use NSIDC definitions for sea boundaries.
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Steven

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Re: Latest PIOMAS update (September, mid-monthly update)
« Reply #3828 on: July 09, 2022, 10:28:44 PM »
This means thickness analysis of these seas cannot be done from Steven's PIOMAS regional data.

...should the PIOMAS regional data be reanalysed according to the NSIDC mask? (if Steven is willing to do it ?)

Hoping to provoke a discussion on this.

Changing the definition of the regional mask is a painstaking process that takes hours.  I won't have time for that in the next days, but maybe by the next update in a week or two.

Why not just use the regional volume?  The definition of regional thickness is ambiguous anyway.  Should the open water in the grid cells be included in the thickness calculation or excluded?

In the thickness maps I post, the open water is included in the displayed thickness of the grid cell.  So if a grid cell has 90% open water and 10% ice of 1 meter thick, then the grid cell is displayed in the maps as 10cm thick.  And I think that is also the case in Wipneus' and Zach Labe's maps as well as those on the PIOMAS website.

The official PIOMAS thickness graph also includes the open water in the grid cells.  In fact they define the average thickness as the total volume, divided by the total surface area of all the grid cells that have an average thickness of at least 15cm.  I could use that same definition to calculate regional thickness data and include it in the spreadsheets, but maybe that is not what you are looking for?

oren

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Re: Latest PIOMAS update (September, mid-monthly update)
« Reply #3829 on: July 09, 2022, 11:03:46 PM »
I personally think the CT regions are geographically better than the NSIDC regions for ASI purposes. I once even suggested another division with more regions, back when I had the time to do proper analysis of the regional data. But I'll take any kind of regional data that is available, as it's far better than having none at all.
And Steven my thanks again for providing this important data.

oren

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Re: Latest PIOMAS update (September, mid-monthly update)
« Reply #3830 on: July 09, 2022, 11:13:20 PM »
Here's an approximate comparison of the total area of the inner basin regions - those that reach maximum extent every winter - between the CT map that Wipneus uses, and the MAISIE NSIDC map.

Wipneus AMSR2 (Cryosphere Today map)  NSIDC Regions (MASIE map)
CAB         4.48     3.22
Beaufort   0.53     0.94
Chukchi    0.61     0.83
ESS         0.95     1.3
Laptev     0.73     0.87
Kara        0.9       0.92
CAA        0.78      0.76

Note: I personally much prefer the CT map, with its smaller and more geographically homogeneous seas, but I would like to see the huge CAB split up to 4 sub-regions (horribly crude drawing attached), which will enable better discerning of new alarming trends:
Pacific CAB - which will show the incursion on the pacific front and its development over the years
Siberian CAB - which will show the Laptev bite
Atlantic CAB - which will show the changes occurring off-Svalbard
Inner CAB - which will hopefully not show significant incursions until we get closer to a BOE.

I realize AMSR2 data only goes back 6 years, but I think it can still teach us a lot about new trends going forward, especially thanks to its relatively high accuracy.




Here's the post I made several years back about the matter of data regions.

Lord M Vader

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Re: Latest PIOMAS update (September, mid-monthly update)
« Reply #3831 on: July 10, 2022, 10:36:22 AM »
Thank you! If anyone has any requests/suggestions for other PIOMAS graphics-diagnostics, please feel free to reach out! I just added a new one today (https://sites.uci.edu/zlabe/arctic-sea-ice-volumethickness/) showing the one month change in PIOMAS SIT (i.e., June 2022 minus May 2022).

Love your graphs and maps! Thank you very much! :)

I have a question: would it be possible to make anomaly maps for base time 2007 and up to most recent year? Given the warming trend of Arctic, the sea ice will hardly rebound to levels before 2007.

Maybe maps comparing current month and year with the lowest years like 2012, 2020 and 2007 for informational view could be an idea too?

oren

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Re: Latest PIOMAS update (September, mid-monthly update)
« Reply #3832 on: July 10, 2022, 10:55:04 AM »
Love your graphs and maps! Thank you very much! :)
Indeed.

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Re: Latest PIOMAS update (September, mid-monthly update)
« Reply #3833 on: July 10, 2022, 12:49:12 PM »
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
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Blizzard92

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Re: Latest PIOMAS update (September, mid-monthly update)
« Reply #3834 on: July 10, 2022, 08:10:18 PM »
Thank you! And thanks for the suggestion - I've now added a graphic showing Arctic sea ice thickness anomalies (in June) for the last 15 years and using a recent anomaly baseline of 2007-2021. I will update this graphic monthly at https://sites.uci.edu/zlabe/arctic-sea-ice-volumethickness/.
Currently: Postdoctoral Research Associate - Princeton University and NOAA GFDL - Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences
UC Irvine - Earth System Science Ph.D.
Cornell University - Atmospheric Sciences B.Sc.

Twitter: @ZLabe
Website: https://zacklabe.com/

Steven

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Re: Latest PIOMAS update (September, mid-monthly update)
« Reply #3835 on: July 19, 2022, 08:11:07 PM »
There has been a mid-month update of the PIOMAS gridded data.

PIOMAS volume for 15 July 2022 was 10.41k km3, which is 10th lowest for the date. 

The volume loss over the first half of July 2022 was 3.069k km3, which is less than the average volume loss for the past 10 years (3.304k km3).


Volume anomaly:


Thickness on 15 July 2022:


Thickness loss over the first half of July 2022:


Thickness anomalies:
« Last Edit: July 19, 2022, 08:18:59 PM by Steven »

Steven

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Re: Latest PIOMAS update (September, mid-monthly update)
« Reply #3836 on: July 19, 2022, 10:48:19 PM »
Some regional volume graphs:

Beaufort:


Chukchi:


East Siberian Sea:


Canadian Archipelago:


Laptev:
https://i.imgur.com/BAdGHEb.png

Central Arctic:
https://i.imgur.com/5uMXl9d.png

Steven

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Re: Latest PIOMAS update (September, mid-monthly update)
« Reply #3837 on: August 04, 2022, 12:18:20 AM »
The gridded data have been updated.

PIOMAS volume on 31 July 2022 was 7.848k km3, which is 11th lowest for the date.  The volume loss in the second half of July 2022 was 2.562k km3, which is close to the average loss for the past 10 years (2.558k km3).

gerontocrat

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Re: Latest PIOMAS update (September, mid-monthly update)
« Reply #3838 on: August 04, 2022, 06:33:19 PM »
Analysis below in same format used for JAXA data postings

PIOMAS  Volume as at 31 Jul 2022  7,848 KM3

- Volume loss from maximum on this date is 15,377 km3, 40 km3 (0%)  more than the 10 year average of 15,337 km3.

- Volume is at position #11 in the satellite record

- Volume is  1,172 km3 MORE than 2012
- Volume is  1,135 km3 MORE than 2017
- Volume is  1,223 km3 MORE than 2020
- Volume is  787 km3 MORE than 2021

- Volume is  306 km3 MORE than 2010's average

Projections.

Average remaining volume loss (of the last 10 years) would produce a minimum volume in Sept 2021 of 5,198 km3, 1,525 km3 above the 2012 record low minimum volume of 3,673 km3.

This minimum would be 10th lowest in the 43 year satellite record.
___________________________________________________________
N.B. Click on image  for full-size
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
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"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

gerontocrat

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Re: Latest PIOMAS update (September, mid-monthly update)
« Reply #3839 on: August 04, 2022, 07:24:05 PM »
JULY FRAM EXPORT - very average for the time of year
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
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gerontocrat

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Re: Latest PIOMAS update (September, mid-monthly update)
« Reply #3840 on: August 04, 2022, 08:07:54 PM »
The PIOMAS data follows the trend of sea ice area and extent.

The July 22 monthly average volume at 10,414 km3 is 1,369 km3 above the long-term linear trend and 10th lowest in the 44 year satellite record. It is also 790 km3 above the July '21 average which was 6th lowest in the satellite record.

The 365 day trailing average continues to rise as 2022 daily volume continues well above that of 2021

click images to enlarge
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

gerontocrat

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Re: Latest PIOMAS update (September, mid-monthly update)
« Reply #3841 on: August 06, 2022, 06:03:54 PM »
As at 31 July, the Peripheral Arctic regions sea ice volume is almost exactly at the 2010's average, while in the High Arctic regions the volume is noriceably above the 2010's average.

However, the Central Arctic Basin volume is a little bit below the 2010's average. Perhaps this is the PIOMAS algorthm taking note of the large area of low concentration ice in the basin. Mind you, the recent reports and photos posted by Jim Hunt suggests that this may be an underestimate of the extent to which ice has been broken up and thinned over a large part of the basin.

2021 was confusing - 2022 even more so?

ps: A thickness calculation for the CAB cannot be done as the area covered by the PIOMAS CAB data is 4.4 million km2 wile the NSIDC Central Arctic area is 3.2 million km2.

click images to enlarge.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
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gerontocrat

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Re: Latest PIOMAS update (September, mid-monthly update)
« Reply #3842 on: August 06, 2022, 06:22:34 PM »
PIOMAS Thickness - defined as PIOMAS volume in KM3 divided by NSIDC Area in KM2.

Note that thickness in the High Arctic is well below the 2010's average. This is simply because the High Arctic Area is more above the 2010's average than is High Arctic Volume.

click images to enlarge
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
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Steven

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Re: Latest PIOMAS update (September, mid-monthly update)
« Reply #3843 on: August 19, 2022, 09:07:24 AM »
Mid-month update:

PIOMAS volume on 15 August 2022 was 6312 km3, which is 11th lowest for the date.  The volume loss over the first half of August 2022 was 1536 km3, which is close to the average loss for the past 10 years (1540 km3).

uniquorn

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Re: Latest PIOMAS Volume update
« Reply #3844 on: August 19, 2022, 11:42:20 AM »
PIOMAS daily volume, total vs cab

edit: added cab rate of rate of change (92day moving avg)
removed, it was 184day moving avg, still thinking about it.
« Last Edit: August 19, 2022, 11:11:37 PM by uniquorn »

Steven

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Re: Latest PIOMAS Volume update
« Reply #3845 on: August 19, 2022, 06:23:25 PM »
More regional volume graphs:

- Canadian Archipelago volume dropped fast in the last week.
- Beaufort volume remains high compared to recent years.
- ESS and CAB are relatively high.
- Laptev and Chukchi are nearly ice-free.









CAB: https://i.imgur.com/CagCkMZ.png

Chukchi: https://i.imgur.com/r82qr3B.png

Glen Koehler

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Re: Latest PIOMAS Volume update
« Reply #3846 on: August 19, 2022, 06:58:26 PM »
    I may be over-reacting, but it seems like the overall weakness in the 2022 ASI could result in an active closing chapter for the melt season this year.  Even though you note ESS as being high, I am surprised to see ESS getting this low at all.  Also surprising for Laptev and Chukchi to be almost completely melted out this early.  Add to that the dramatic recent drop in CAA.  The ASI seems very vulnerable to late-August - September melting conditions this year.  And the weather watchers are telling us some additional heat energy might be at work in the near future. 
    Most of this reaction based on the reported stats for the peripheral High Arctic seas (Laptev, ESS etc.), but with low concentration areas in the CAB it probably applies there too.  It ain't over 'til the fat lady sings.
« Last Edit: August 19, 2022, 07:15:23 PM by Glen Koehler »
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Steven

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Re: Latest PIOMAS Volume update
« Reply #3847 on: September 04, 2022, 09:54:15 PM »
The gridded data have been updated:

PIOMAS volume on 31 August 2022 was 5367 km3, which is 10th lowest for the date.  The volume loss in the second half of August 2022 was 945 km3, which is more than the average loss for the past 10 years (873 km3).

gerontocrat

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Re: Latest PIOMAS Volume update
« Reply #3848 on: September 04, 2022, 11:35:08 PM »
PIOMAS  Volume as at 31 Aug 2022  5,369 KM3

- Volume loss from maximum on this date is 17,856 km3, 105 km3 (1%)  more than the 10 year average of 17,751 km3.

- Volume is at position #10 in the satellite record

- Volume is  1,437 km3 MORE than 2012
- Volume is  680 km3 MORE than 2017
- Volume is  1,007 km3 MORE than 2020
- Volume is  641 km3 MORE than 2021

- Volume is  275 km3 MORE than 2010's average

Projections.

Average remaining volume loss (of the last 10 years) would produce a minimum volume in Sept 2021 of 5,133 km3, 1,460 km3 above the 2012 record low minimum volume of 3,673 km3 , which would be 10th lowest in the 44 year satellite record.
___________________________________________________________
N.B. Click on image  for full-size
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
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gerontocrat

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Re: Latest PIOMAS Volume update
« Reply #3849 on: September 04, 2022, 11:51:18 PM »
& here are the PIOMAS volume & PIOMAS/NSIDC thickness graphs for the Hugh Arctic & peripheral Seas.

No real surprises here.

click images to enlarge
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)