Latest PIOMAS Volume update

[gerontocrat]

I've brought out of hibernation some volume & thickness graphs (insomnia is a curse).

Here are the 365 day trailing average Volume & Thickness graphs. They show an increase in 2021-2022 mostly unchanged in 2023.


Note: Thickness is calculated from PIOMAS sea ice Volume divided by NSIDC sea ice Area

[gerontocrat]

& here is a closer look at High Arctic & Peripheral Seas Volume & Thickness

[kiwichick16]

global volumes

[kassy]

No, global volume anomalies. Tiny but important difference.

[oren]

I wonder what's up with the Polar Science Center. Just when the numbers are the most interesting, the mid-month update is late or missing.

[kiwichick16]

@  kassy  ...yeah global  .....as in the planet we live on

[oren]

@  kassy  ...yeah global  .....as in the planet we live on

Please take a moment to re-read kassy's comment. Speed of posting should not come at cost of inaccuracy. Original post is not global volume but global volume anomalies.

[kiwichick16]

@  Oren  ...the graph i posted says global sea ice volume anomalies  ....is there something wrong with the graph ...... or is it mis labeled ?

[Alexander55]

You write, global volume. But it looks like it's the anomalie.

[oren]

@  Oren  ...the graph i posted says global sea ice volume anomalies  ....is there something wrong with the graph ...... or is it mis labeled ?

Your accompanying text lacked the word "anomaly", which kassy commented on, that's all, nothing too dramatic.

[Tom Stedman]

Anyone know what the Piomas minimum volume is, or when the data will be out?

[oren]

It seems (my guess) that there was a skip of the mid-month update at PSC.
Steven - do you have any info you can share on this?

[Steven]

It seems (my guess) that there was a skip of the mid-month update at PSC.
Steven - do you have any info you can share on this?

There was indeed no mid-month update in September, but I have no idea why.  Normally they should release the next monthly update in a few days, by the end of next week.

[oren]

Thanks. I am very curious to see what PIOMAS makes of the late season area loss and export.

[Blizzard92]

There was indeed no mid-month update in September, but I have no idea why.  Normally they should release the next monthly update in a few days, by the end of next week.

There was no GIOMAS update either yet for August's data.

[Steven]

PIOMAS has updated.

The volume minimum this year was 4651 km3 on 16 September 2023, which is the 9th lowest minimum on record.

The daily volume on 30 September 2023 was 6th lowest for the date (4870 km3).

September 2023 was a bad month for the ice.  The volume loss in the first half of the month was above average and the volume gain in the second half of the month was below average.

[Steven]

Here are some trendlines for the annual minimum for 1979-2023:
a) linear trend
b) piecewise linear trend with 2 change points
c) and a random sigmoid curve fit (arctangent curve)

[Steven]

I will probably not post any regular updates in this thread during the freezing season.  But the PIOMAS graphs and data files on my Google Site will still be updated twice per month: https://sites.google.com/view/arctic-sea-ice/home

[Glen Koehler]

     Thanks Steven.  A lot of the thick ice is parked on exit ramps into Fram Strait or Barents Sea.

[HapHazard]

First thing I noticed, too, Glen.

[oren]

I will probably not post any regular updates in this thread during the freezing season.  But the PIOMAS graphs and data files on my Google Site will still be updated twice per month: https://sites.google.com/view/arctic-sea-ice/home

Thanks a lot, Steven.

[gerontocrat]

Thanks, Steven.
Your stuff is so damn good.

PIOMAS  Volume as at 30 Sep 2023  4,871 KM3

- Volume gain from minimum on this date is 220 km3, 125 km3, (36.3%),  less than the 10 year average of 345 km3.

- Volume is at position #6 in the satellite record

- Volume is  904 km3 MORE than 2012
- Volume is  153 km3 LESS than 2017
- Volume is  602 km3 MORE than 2020
- Volume is  115 km3 LESS than 2021
- Volume is  572 km3 LESS than 2022
- Volume is  364 km3 LESS than 2010's average

Projections.

Average remaining volume gain (of the last 10 years) would produce a maximum volume in April 2023 of 22,350 km3, 1,568 km3 above the 2017 record low maximum volume of 20,782 km3, which would be 2nd lowest in the 45 year satellite record.
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N.B. Click on image  for full-size

[gerontocrat]

PIOMAS  Volume as at 30 Sep 2023  4,871 KM3

The September monthly average of 4,787 km3 is 9th lowest in the satellte record, 1,089 km3 above the linear trend, and 442 km3 below the Sept '22 average. Overall, a modest move down towards the longterm linear trend.

The 365 day trailing average fell by 36 km3 in the month of September, confirming a gradual move downwards after rising for 2 years, and is 1,710 km3 aboave the longterm linear trend and 1,645 km3 above the record low of 1/9/2017.

Also attached is the 365 day trailing average of average thickness, which is still rising - now at a glacial pace. This may reflect that recent above average losses of area and volume have been  of relatively thin ice?

[gerontocrat]

Attached are latest changes in daily average volume and thickness of the High Arctic and Peripheral Seas.

High Arctic volume is below the 2010's average by a small margin. Peripheral Seas volume is well above the 2010's average and increasing rapidly. Fram export into the Greenland Sea ?

Thickness is well above 2010's average levels in both the High Arctic and Peripheral Seas.

[Steven]

Sea ice expansion according to PIOMAS.  The ranking is still 7th lowest on record for the date.

[gerontocrat]

PIOMAS  Volume as at 31 Oct 2023  7,341 KM3

- Volume gain from minimum on this date is 2,690 km3, 13 km3, (0.5%),  more than the 10 year average of 2,677 km3.

- Volume is at position #7 in the satellite record

- Volume is  924 km3 MORE than 2012
- Volume is  276 km3 LESS than 2017
- Volume is  1,269 km3 MORE than 2020
- Volume is  429 km3 LESS than 2021
- Volume is  560 km3 LESS than 2022
- Volume is  254 km3 LESS than 2010's average

Projections.

Average remaining volume gain (of the last 10 years) would produce a maximum volume in April 2023 of 22,487 km3, 1,705 km3 above the 2017 record low maximum volume of 20,782 km3, which would be 3rd lowest in the 45 year satellite record.
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N.B. Click on image  for full-size

[Steven]

PIOMAS volume on 30 November 2023 was the 5th lowest on record for the date. 

The volume growth had a major slowdown at the end of November, similar to what happened for CryoSat-SMOS volume.

The regional volume distribution for PIOMAS also looks quite similar to CryoSat-SMOS.    Both of them have record low volume in Beaufort Sea and the CAA.  Relatively low volume on the North American side of the Arctic, but relatively high volume along the Atlantic edge and much of the Siberian side.

(More graphics here: https://sites.google.com/view/arctic-sea-ice/home/piomas)

[gerontocrat]

PIOMAS  Volume as at 30 Nov 2023  10,765 KM3

- Volume gain from minimum on this date is 6,114 km3, 117 km3, (1.9%),  less than the 10 year average of 6,231 km3.

- Volume is at position #5 in the satellite record

- Volume is  627 km3 MORE than 2012
- Volume is  82 km3 LESS than 2017
- Volume is  1,025 km3 MORE than 2020
- Volume is  673 km3 LESS than 2021
- Volume is  676 km3 LESS than 2022
- Volume is  396 km3 LESS than 2010's average

Projections.

Average remaining volume gain (of the last 10 years) would produce a maximum volume in April 2023 of 22,375 km3, 1,593 km3 above the 2017 record low maximum volume of 20,782 km3, which would be 2nd lowest in the 45 year satellite record.
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N.B. Click on image  for full-size

[Steven]

PIOMAS volume on 31 December 2023 was 6th lowest for the date.

[Glen Koehler]

     Thanks for the PIOMAS info Steven. 
      The above-normal thickness is in locations exposed to near-term export.  And the most extreme below-normal thickness is along the CAB-CAA border.

      It will be "interesting" to see if Fram export increases in 2024 due to the additional source material, and if garlic press migration across the CAB-CAA border increases due to the lack of enough of an ice wall to prevent southward migration.

      Just a reminder to us all as we watch the daily/weekly/monthly Extent stats, that while more difficult to measure, Volume is the more comprehensive metric of ice status.  As ASI declines closer to zero, the arithmetic requires that Extent losses accelerate to reach that zero point on the same future date as the steeper Volume trend.  Functionally, that occurs as thin ice along the edge of the Extent line rapidly melts when it gets below a critical thickness threshold in the presence of warm water and air.  This is the "ice goes poof" scenario.  It seems that large areas of the Arctic Ocean will be getting dangerously close to and beyond the poof zone over the next 5-10 years.
     The 2012 record lows were far ahead of the trend at the time, but now the trend lines have caught up and are heading below the 2012 values.

[gerontocrat]

PIOMAS  Volume as at 31 Dec 2023  14,571 KM3

- Volume gain from minimum on this date is 9,920 km3, 104 km3, (1.0%),  less than the 10 year average of 10,024 km3.

- Volume is at position #6 in the satellite record

- Volume is  650 km3 MORE than 2012
- Volume is  153 km3 MORE than 2017
- Volume is  670 km3 MORE than 2020
- Volume is  749 km3 LESS than 2021
- Volume is  171 km3 LESS than 2022
- Volume is  319 km3 LESS than 2010's average

Projections.

Average remaining volume gain (of the last 10 years) would produce a maximum volume in April 2023 of 22,437 km3, 1,655 km3 above the 2017 record low maximum volume of 20,782 km3, which would be 3rd lowest in the 45 year satellite record.
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N.B. Click on image  for full-size

[gerontocrat]

& here are some thickness graphs - calculated as PIOMAS Volume divided by NSIDC area

[Renerpho]

The above-normal thickness is in locations exposed to near-term export. And the most extreme below-normal thickness is along the CAB-CAA border.

The funny thing is, the above-normal thickness in the peripheral Arctic could very well lead to a slow melting season later on, while the below-normal thickness in parts of the high Arctic won't show in extent numbers at all (they don't even show in volume numbers at the moment). -- Giving the impression that things aren't so bad...

[Steven]

PIOMAS volume on 15 February 2024 was 3rd lowest for the date.

[gerontocrat]

Time to do a bit on PIOMAS volume.
Given the sea ice area and extent data, a bit of a surprise to find volume 3rd lowest in the satellite record.

PIOMAS  Volume as at 01 Mar 2024  20,380 KM3

- Volume gain from minimum on this date is 15,729 km3, 50 km3, (0.3%), more than the 10 year average of 15,679 km3.

- Volume is at position #3 in the satellite record

- Volume is  1,694 km3 MORE than 2017
- Volume is  690 km3 MORE than 2018
- Volume is  81 km3 LESS than 2021
- Volume is  583 km3 LESS than 2022
- Volume is  299 km3 LESS than 2023

Projections.

Average remaining volume gain (of the last 10 years) would produce a maximum volume in April 2023 of 22,534 km3, 1,752 km3 above the 2017 record low maximum volume of 20,782 km3, which would be 4th lowest in the 45 year satellite record.
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N.B. Click on image  for full-size

[gerontocrat]

Total Arctic average thickness is somewhat low, currently 4th lowest in the satellite record.

The CAA average thickness has been lowest in the 46 year satellite record for every day this year so far.  Vulnerable this melting season to early melt and ice import from the CAB through the garlic press?

[kiwichick16]

ice thickness possibly 2nd lowest currently.....

https://zacklabe.com/arctic-sea-ice-volumethickness/

[John_the_Younger]

How does the Lincoln Sea fill up with 4-year old ice when Nares Strait empties it of ice 6 months (or more) of the year?  Does Nares export tons of 4-year old ice which is replaced by more 4-year old ice coming in from north of Canada?

[gerontocrat]

Steven has prepared March data from PIOMS data at the Polar Science Center.
Because I deal with Feb 29 leap year differently from the Polar Science center method my graphs are one day out. Never mind

PIOMAS  Volume as at 01 Apr 2024  22,407 KM3

- Volume gain from minimum on this date is 17,756 km3, 297 km3, (1.7%), more than the 10 year average of 17,459 km3.

- Volume is at position #6 in the 46 year satellite record

- Volume is  2,000 km3 MORE than 2017
- Volume is  456 km3 MORE than 2018
- Volume is  88 km3 LESS than 2021
- Volume is  183 km3 LESS than 2022
- Volume is  320 km3 LESS than 2023
- Volume is  166 km3 LESS than 2010's average

Projections.

Average remaining volume gain (of the last 10 years) would produce a maximum volume in April 2024 of 22,782 km3, 2,000 km3 above the 2017 record low maximum volume of 20,782 km3, which would be 7th lowest in the 45 year satellite record.
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N.B. Click on image  for full-size

[gerontocrat]

The Canadian Archipelago is interesting as volume and thickness have been low this winter, suggesting vulnerability to a quick and eaerly melt this year and increasing the chance of ice import from the CAB via the Garlic Press

[gerontocrat]

Steven has also downloaded Fram & Fram to FJL ice export - volume & area

First a look at Fram to FJL export, which shows ice export into the Greenland & Barents Seas

Sea Ice Volume export is above the decadal averages, but well below 2023 levels.

Sea Ice Area export  is also above the decadal averages, well below 2023 levels, but increasing at a higher rate than is volume.

The average thickness is well below the 1980s and 1990s but slightly above the 2010's average.

[gerontocrat]

& here are the graphs of Fram export, which shows ice export into the Greenland Sea.

Once again, the export in 2024 is pretty much average in sea ice volume, area and thickness.
Looking at the Greenand graph from NSIDC data also shows not much change in Greenland sea ice area fom 1 Jan to mid-March.