Given all this I don't expect August to see a loss of much over 2500 km3, unless PIOMAS has some melting momentum factor from July that bleeds through into August.
2629 km3 it is. Interesting...
It looks like the dip in the anomaly trace came about 23rd-26th August, which would implicate the cyclone (and subsequent accelerated bottom melt) in the larger-than-expected volume decline.
Accelerated bottom melt means PIOMAS has some melting momentum factor from August that bleeds through into September.
Sunlight goes into the sea heating up the near surface layer during the early part of the season and this mixes upwards to melt ice later in the season. August cyclones can bring it up faster (notably in 2012) and result in melting happening earlier than it otherwise would. On the other hand if the Beaufort Gyre is in full swing, it takes a significant amount of this heat downwards resulting in rather less melting.
I agree. However the first 10 days of September, ocean SST anomalies were significant (+1C) at Beaufort and Chukchi sea. Browse SST anomaly maps thru these days here,
http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/satellite/index.uk.phpIf you browse the Bremen maps until the 10th, you can see some ice melting from Beaufort and Chukchi, especially close to CAA, and the remainders at Chukchi).
The new buoy at CAB (81N), showed bottom melting until the 15th, now flat.
Refreezing starts. Clockwise drift due to prevailing high pressure over Beaufort too*. But I wouldn't be surprised ice front advances slowly during the next weeks.
*Is this drift called Beaufort Gyre too? I had recently learned the Beaufort Gyre is the slower ocean current beneath of much greater inertia, which does not stop flowing clockwise during the whole year, but only strengthens in intensity in Winter due to the mentioned prevailing Winter ice drift.