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ArcticMelt2

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Re: Arctic Methane Release
« Reply #1100 on: November 01, 2019, 07:57:19 PM »
Apologies for the duplicate post, I'm reposting this here (from the stupid questions thread) as I think it's a more appropriate thread.

I'm looking for recent methane concentration data from the Tiksi weather station, but the most recent data I can find on the NOAA website is over a year old.

Is the station still operational? Is NOAA still collecting this data? Or am I just being impatient?

But there's data from Barrow. This year is really different unprecedented methane emissions in the Arctic for all time observations (after 1984).

https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/dv/iadv/graph.php?code=BRW&program=ccgg&type=ts
« Last Edit: November 01, 2019, 08:06:07 PM by ArcticMelt2 »

ArcticMelt2

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Re: Arctic Methane Release
« Reply #1101 on: November 01, 2019, 08:03:06 PM »
I note that the summer of 2019 in Barrow was the warmest during observations:



This is further proof that every record in positive temperatures in the Arctic leads to a record of methane emissions.

I noted in a neighboring topic that this area of Alaska has some of the largest coal reserves in the world. Coal is buried in permafrost, and its melting causes methane to be released from the coal. Methane often explodes and kills the miners in the coal mines.

Bugalugs

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Re: Arctic Methane Release
« Reply #1102 on: November 01, 2019, 10:52:08 PM »
The Barrow NOAA methane data is bizarre.

I note that a spike is not appearing at other sites, yet.

A burp, or the beginning of feedback acceleration?

Ken Feldman

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Re: Arctic Methane Release
« Reply #1103 on: November 01, 2019, 11:47:37 PM »
The Barrow NOAA methane data is bizarre.

I note that a spike is not appearing at other sites, yet.

A burp, or the beginning of feedback acceleration?

Or a quality control issue?  Notice that the last few months of data are in orange which means they haven't been validated through quality control yet.

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A smooth curve and long-term trend may be fitted to the representative measurements when sufficient data exist. Data shown in ORANGE are preliminary. All other data have undergone rigorous quality assurance and are freely available from GMD, CDIAC, and WMO WDCGG.

https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/dv/iadv/help/ccgg_details.html

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Warning: Preliminary data include the this group's most up-to-date data and have not yet been subjected to rigorous quality assurance procedures. Preliminary data viewed from this site are "pre-filtered" using tools designed to identify suspect values. Filtering is performed each time a data set containing preliminary data is requested. Filtering, however, cannot identify systematic experimental errors and will not be used in place of existing data assurance procedures. Thus, there exists the potential to make available preliminary data with systematic biases. In all graphs, preliminary data are clearly identified. Users are strongly encouraged to contact Dr. Pieter Tans, Group Chief (pieter.tans@noaa.gov) before attempting to interpret preliminary data.

kassy

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Re: Arctic Methane Release
« Reply #1104 on: November 02, 2019, 06:25:28 PM »
Basically all the orange is this year so they might only validate per year. If so i hope they do it in January.

I guess it´s a ´local burp´ and since the highest blue dot is only a bit lower then the highest orange dot and the process of measuring is automatic it probably will not change much after validation.

It is a logical progression from the rest of the series with last years conditions.

It´s a pity that we have no Tiksi data as Alumril noted.

PS: Alumril do you have any idea if there are russian sites with this sort of data?
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Lewis

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Re: Arctic Methane Release
« Reply #1105 on: November 04, 2019, 01:03:03 AM »
Igor Semiletov and 65 other scientists on board of a Russian vessel studying the Arctic waters have found that methane in the air over the ESS has up to nine times the global average, research also found that methane jets are shooting up from the seabed to the water’s surface.

https://www.cnn.com/2019/10/12/us/arctic-methane-gas-flare-trnd/index.html?no-st=1572824167

I’ve read some comments on this thread that methane doesn’t come up in the bubbles because due microorganisms eats most of the methane.

Has this understanding changed? Is there more methane being released now than in the past to the point that the microorganism are unable to consume most of the methane before it reaches the surface?

kassy

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Re: Arctic Methane Release
« Reply #1106 on: November 04, 2019, 02:55:23 PM »
I’ve read some comments on this thread that methane doesn’t come up in the bubbles because due microorganisms eats most of the methane.

It depends on the local circumstances. If the water column is very deep the methane will not reach the surface. The ESAS is very shallow so the methane comes up to the surface there. 

The change is not due to methane overwhelming microorganisms.
It is just a result of more warming in the area.

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Eastern Siberian Sea (ESS)
- The average open water for the year in the 1980's was circa 10 %. Since 2007 it has risen to over 20% in nearly all years.
- For the three minimum ice months Aug-Oct the open water percentage has risen from circa 15% for most of the 1980's to a highly variable 70% to 90% since 2007. In 2019 nearly 90%.
See post #2839 in the 2019 sea ice area and extent thread for the full version with graph.

This is a good start point:
Understanding the Permafrost–Hydrate System and Associated Methane Releases in the East Siberian Arctic Shelf
https://www.mdpi.com/2076-3263/9/6/251/htm
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Ken Feldman

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Re: Arctic Methane Release
« Reply #1107 on: November 05, 2019, 08:19:44 PM »
Igor Semiletov and 65 other scientists on board of a Russian vessel studying the Arctic waters have found that methane in the air over the ESS has up to nine times the global average, research also found that methane jets are shooting up from the seabed to the water’s surface.

https://www.cnn.com/2019/10/12/us/arctic-methane-gas-flare-trnd/index.html?no-st=1572824167

I’ve read some comments on this thread that methane doesn’t come up in the bubbles because due microorganisms eats most of the methane.

Has this understanding changed? Is there more methane being released now than in the past to the point that the microorganism are unable to consume most of the methane before it reaches the surface?

Lewis,

The most recent studies still support the fact that most methane is consumed by microbes as it migrates up through the unfrozen sediment that overlays the thawing permafrost layers.  (In some cases, the permafrost is hundreds of meters below the unfrozen sediment, so when you see estimates of huge amounts of methane in permafrost, keep that in mind).  And if the methane is released from areas deeper than 30 meters, it doesn't reach the surface due to chemical reactions with the water.

Here's a link to a pre-published discussion paper from July 2019.  It has a good overview of the current science about methane escape from the ESAS.

https://pdfs.semanticscholar.org/0745/b28231ab3a1a33c47362b03da21d519924ca.pdf

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Assessing the potential for non-turbulent methane escape from the East Siberian Arctic Shelf
Matteo Puglini, Victor Brovkin, Pierre Regnier, and Sandra Arndt

Abstract.

East Siberian Arctic Shelf (ESAS) hosts large, yet poorly quantified reservoirs of subsea permafrost and associated gas  hydrates.  It  has  been  suggested  the  global-warming  induced  thawing  and  dissociation  of  these  reservoirs  is  currently releasing methane to the shallow shelf ocean and ultimately the atmosphere. However, the exact contribution of permafrost thaw  and  methane  gas  hydrate  destabilization  to  benthic  methane  efflux  from  the  warming  shelf  and  ultimately  methane-climate feedbacks remains controversial. A major unknown is the fate of permafrost and/or gas hydrate-derived methane as it migrates towards the sediment-water interface. In marine sediments, (an)aerobic oxidation reactions generally act as extremely efficient biofilters that often consume close to 100% of the upward migrating methane. However, it has been shown that a number of environmental conditions can reduce the efficiency of this biofilter, thus allowing methane to escape to the overlying ocean. Here, we used a reaction-transport model to assess the efficiency of the benthic methane filter and, thus, the potential for permafrost and/or gas hydrate derived methane to escape shelf sediments under a wide range of environmental conditions encountered on East Siberian Arctic Shelf. Results of an extensive sensitivity analysis show that, under steady state conditions, anaerobic oxidation of methane (AOM) acts as an efficient biofilter that prevents the escape of dissolved methane from shelf sediments  for  a  wide  range  of  environmental  conditions.  Yet,  highCH4 escape  comparable  to  fluxes  reported  from  mud-volcanoes is simulated for rapidly accumulating (sedimentation rate>0.7cm yr−1) and/or active (active fluid flow>6cmyr−1) sediments and can be further enhanced by mid-range organic matter reactivity and/or intense local transport processes, such as bioirrigation. In active settings, high non-turbulent methane escape of up to 19μmolCH4cm−2yr−1can also occur during a transient, multi-decadal period following the sudden onset of CH4 flux triggered by, for instance, permafrost thaw or hydrate destabilization. This "window of opportunity" arises due to the time needed by the microbial community to build up an efficient AOM biofilter. In contrast, seasonal variations in environmental conditions (e.g. bottom water SO2−4,CH4 flux) exert a negligible effect on CH4 efflux through the Sediment-Water Interface (SWI). Our results indicate that present and future methane efflux from ESAS sediments is mainly supported by methane gas and non-turbulent CH4 efflux from rapidly accumulating and/or active sediments (e.g. coastal settings, portions close to river mouths or submarine slumps). In particular active sites on the ESAS may release methane in response to the onset or increase of permafrost thawing or CH4 gas hydrate destabilization rates. Model results also reveal that AOM generally acts as an efficient biofilter for upward migrating CH4 under environmental conditions that are representative for the present-day ESAS with potentially important, yet unquantified implications for the Arctic ocean’s alkalinity budget and, thus, CO2 fluxes. The results of the model sensitivity study are used as a quantitative framework to derive first-order estimates of non-turbulent, benthic methane efflux from the Laptev Sea. We find that, under present day conditions, AOM is an efficient biofilter and non-turbulent methane efflux from Laptev Sea sediments does not exceed 1 GgCH4yr−1. As a consequence, we state that previously published estimates of fluxes from ESAS water into atmosphere cannot be supported by non-turbulent methane escape from the sediments, but require the build-up and preferential escape of benthic methane gas from the sediments to the atmosphere that matches or even exceeds such estimated fluxes.

The "methane fountain" reported on in October was a very rare event.

https://siberiantimes.com/other/others/news/first-pictures-and-video-of-the-largest-methane-fountain-so-far-discovered-in-the-arctic-ocean/

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‘It was a needle in a haystack chase, to find an exact place of a methane seep in dark sea waters, but we found it!

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‘This was the most powerful seep I have ever observed. No one has ever recorded anything similar’ said head of the expedition Igor Semiletov, who has participated in 45 Arctic expeditions.

And it was pretty small.

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The area of the fountain covered about five metres,



Lewis

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Re: Arctic Methane Release
« Reply #1108 on: November 06, 2019, 05:25:29 AM »
Thanks Ken for your detailed explanation, appreciate it.
Kassy, thanks for your reply as well.