Support the Arctic Sea Ice Forum and Blog

Author Topic: Arctic Methane Release  (Read 340394 times)

Freegrass

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1601
  • Emancipate yourself from mental slavery
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 509
  • Likes Given: 746
Re: Arctic Methane Release
« Reply #1150 on: August 20, 2020, 11:56:07 AM »
Is there any information available yet on the release of methane in the ESS this year? All those storms in the ESS these last few weeks must be mixing up all that hot water there and causing a massive amount of methane to be released, no?

You can see it daily from the Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service.  Here's today's forecast (North Pole view):

https://atmosphere.copernicus.eu/charts/cams/methane-forecasts?facets=undefined&time=2020081800,3,2020081803&projection=classical_north_pole&layer_name=composition_ch4_totalcolumn

And then compare that view to the NOAA globally averaged measurement.

https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends_ch4/

ESAS methane emissions are less than the global average.  Areas with large concentrations of people and lots of agricultural and industrial activity are more than global average.
Thank you Ken. I bookmarked it.
I think India really need to cut down on their cows. Holy Cow! But I guess some of that must also come from oil and gas exploitation in the middle east?

The arctic looks surprisingly void of Methane. That's interesting. I didn't expect that...
If every 8 year old in the world is taught meditation, we will eliminate violence from the world within one generation.
-The Dalai Lama

Ken Feldman

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1409
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 221
  • Likes Given: 137
Re: Arctic Methane Release
« Reply #1151 on: August 20, 2020, 06:38:23 PM »
Thank you Ken. I bookmarked it.
I think India really need to cut down on their cows. Holy Cow! But I guess some of that must also come from oil and gas exploitation in the middle east?

The arctic looks surprisingly void of Methane. That's interesting. I didn't expect that...

A lot is from oil and gas production in the Middle East.  I think the Himalayan Mountains probably block some of the airflow and increase the concentrations.  And don't forget, most of the population in south Asia rely on rice as their main staple crop, and rice paddies produce methane.  There are also a lot of wetlands in the coastal areas, which also produce a lot of methane.

The methane seeps and bubbles get a lot of hype in the media, but when you compare the amount of methane produced, the Arctic Ocean doesn't really contribute a lot of methane to the atmosphere.  Most of the methane from the subsea permafrost is eaten by microbes before it gets to the ocean floor and then a lot of it is absorbed by the ocean as it bubbles toward the surface.

Estimates for methane emissions for all of the oceans are around 5 to 10 million tons annually.  Total global emissions are around 576 million tons of which  359 million tons are from anthropogenic sources.

https://essd.copernicus.org/articles/12/1561/2020/

Quote
The Global Methane Budget 2000–2017
Saunois et. al 2020

Abstract
Back to top

Understanding and quantifying the global methane (CH4) budget is important for assessing realistic pathways to mitigate climate change. Atmospheric emissions and concentrations of CH4 continue to increase, making CH4 the second most important human-influenced greenhouse gas in terms of climate forcing, after carbon dioxide (CO2). The relative importance of CH4 compared to CO2 depends on its shorter atmospheric lifetime, stronger warming potential, and variations in atmospheric growth rate over the past decade, the causes of which are still debated. Two major challenges in reducing uncertainties in the atmospheric growth rate arise from the variety of geographically overlapping CH4 sources and from the destruction of CH4 by short-lived hydroxyl radicals (OH). To address these challenges, we have established a consortium of multidisciplinary scientists under the umbrella of the Global Carbon Project to synthesize and stimulate new research aimed at improving and regularly updating the global methane budget. Following Saunois et al. (2016), we present here the second version of the living review paper dedicated to the decadal methane budget, integrating results of top-down studies (atmospheric observations within an atmospheric inverse-modelling framework) and bottom-up estimates (including process-based models for estimating land surface emissions and atmospheric chemistry, inventories of anthropogenic emissions, and data-driven extrapolations).

For the 2008–2017 decade, global methane emissions are estimated by atmospheric inversions (a top-down approach) to be 576 Tg CH4 yr−1 (range 550–594, corresponding to the minimum and maximum estimates of the model ensemble). Of this total, 359 Tg CH4 yr−1 or ∼ 60 % is attributed to anthropogenic sources, that is emissions caused by direct human activity (i.e. anthropogenic emissions; range 336–376 Tg CH4 yr−1 or 50 %–65 %). The mean annual total emission for the new decade (2008–2017) is 29 Tg CH4 yr−1 larger than our estimate for the previous decade (2000–2009), and 24 Tg CH4 yr−1 larger than the one reported in the previous budget for 2003–2012 (Saunois et al., 2016). Since 2012, global CH4 emissions have been tracking the warmest scenarios assessed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Bottom-up methods suggest almost 30 % larger global emissions (737 Tg CH4 yr−1, range 594–881) than top-down inversion methods. Indeed, bottom-up estimates for natural sources such as natural wetlands, other inland water systems, and geological sources are higher than top-down estimates. The atmospheric constraints on the top-down budget suggest that at least some of these bottom-up emissions are overestimated. The latitudinal distribution of atmospheric observation-based emissions indicates a predominance of tropical emissions (∼ 65 % of the global budget, < 30∘ N) compared to mid-latitudes (∼ 30 %, 30–60∘ N) and high northern latitudes (∼ 4 %, 60–90∘ N). The most important source of uncertainty in the methane budget is attributable to natural emissions, especially those from wetlands and other inland waters.

Some of our global source estimates are smaller than those in previously published budgets (Saunois et al., 2016; Kirschke et al., 2013). In particular wetland emissions are about 35 Tg CH4 yr−1 lower due to improved partition wetlands and other inland waters. Emissions from geological sources and wild animals are also found to be smaller by 7 Tg CH4 yr−1 by 8 Tg CH4 yr−1, respectively. However, the overall discrepancy between bottom-up and top-down estimates has been reduced by only 5 % compared to Saunois et al. (2016), due to a higher estimate of emissions from inland waters, highlighting the need for more detailed research on emissions factors. Priorities for improving the methane budget include (i) a global, high-resolution map of water-saturated soils and inundated areas emitting methane based on a robust classification of different types of emitting habitats; (ii) further development of process-based models for inland-water emissions; (iii) intensification of methane observations at local scales (e.g., FLUXNET-CH4 measurements) and urban-scale monitoring to constrain bottom-up land surface models, and at regional scales (surface networks and satellites) to constrain atmospheric inversions; (iv) improvements of transport models and the representation of photochemical sinks in top-down inversions; and (v) development of a 3D variational inversion system using isotopic and/or co-emitted species such as ethane to improve source partitioning.



Quote
The production of methane at the seabed is known to be significant. For instance, marine seepages emit up to 65 Tg CH4 yr−1 globally at seabed level (USEPA, 2010b). What is uncertain is the flux of oceanic methane reaching the atmosphere. For example, bubble plumes of CH4 from the seabed have been observed in the water column, but not detected in the Arctic atmosphere (Fisher et al., 2011; Westbrook et al., 2009). There are several barriers preventing methane from being expelled to the atmosphere (James et al., 2016). From below the seafloor to the sea surface, gas hydrates and permafrost serve as a barrier to fluid and gas migration towards the seafloor; microbial activity around the seafloor can strongly oxidize methane releases or production; further oxidation occurs in the water column; the oceanic pycnocline acts as a physical barrier towards the surface waters, including efficient dissolution of bubbles; and finally, surface oceans are aerobic and contribute to the oxidation of dissolved methane. However, surface waters can be more supersaturated than the underlying deeper waters, leading to a methane paradox (Sasakawa et al., 2008). Possible explanations involve (i) upwelling in areas with surface mixed layers covered by sea ice (Damm et al., 2015), (ii) the release of methane by the degradation of dissolved organic matter phosphonates in aerobic conditions (Repeta et al., 2016), (iii)  methane production by marine algae (Lenhart et al., 2016), or (iv) methane production within the anoxic centre of sinking particles (Sasakawa et al., 2008), but more work is still needed to be conclusive about this apparent paradox.

For geological emissions, the most used value has long been 20 Tg CH4 yr−1, relying on expert knowledge and literature synthesis proposed in a workshop reported in Kvenvolden et al. (2001); the authors of this study recognize that this was a first estimation and needs revision. Since then, oceanographic campaigns have been organized, especially to sample bubbling areas of active seafloor gas seep bubbling. For instance, Shakhova et al. (2010, 2014) infer 8–17 Tg CH4 yr−1 in emissions just for the Eastern Siberian Arctic Shelf (ESAS), based on the extrapolation of numerous but local measurements, and possibly related to thawing sub-seabed permafrost (Shakhova et al., 2015). Because of the highly heterogeneous distribution of dissolved CH4 in coastal regions, where bubbles can most easily reach the atmosphere, extrapolation of in situ local measurements to the global scale can be hazardous and lead to biased global estimates. Indeed, using very precise and accurate continuous land shore-based atmospheric methane observations in the Arctic region, Berchet et al. (2016) found a range of emissions for ESAS of ∼ 2.5 Tg CH4 yr−1 (range [0–5]), 4–8 times lower than Shakhova's estimates. Such a reduction in ESAS emission estimate has also been inferred from oceanic observations by Thornton et al. (2016b) with a maximum sea–air CH4 flux of 2.9 Tg CH4 yr−1 for this region. Etiope et al. (2019) suggested a minimum global total submarine seepage emission of 3.9 Tg CH4 yr−1 simply summing published regional emission estimates for 15 areas for identified emission areas (above 7 Tg CH4 yr−1 when extrapolated to include non-measured areas). These recent results, based on different approaches, suggest that the current estimate of 20 Tg CH4 yr−1 is too large and needs revision.

Therefore, as discussed in Sect. 3.2.2, we report here a reduced range of 5–10 Tg CH4 yr−1 for marine geological emissions compared to the previous budget, with a mean value of 7 Tg CH4 yr−1.

Ken Feldman

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1409
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 221
  • Likes Given: 137
Re: Arctic Methane Release
« Reply #1152 on: August 20, 2020, 06:42:14 PM »
^^^
Continuing the quotes from Saunois et al 2020, they also discuss methane hydrates:

Quote
Among the different origins of oceanic methane, hydrates have attracted a lot of attention. Methane hydrates (or clathrates) are ice-like crystals formed under specific temperature and pressure conditions (Milkov, 2005). Methane hydrates can be either of biogenic origin (formed in situ at depth in the sediment by microbial activity) or of thermogenic origin (non-biogenic gas migrated from deeper sediments and trapped due to pressure–temperature conditions or due to some capping geological structure such as marine permafrost). The total stock of marine methane hydrates is large but uncertain, with global estimates ranging from hundreds to thousands of Pg CH4 (Klauda and Sandler, 2005; Wallmann et al., 2012).

Concerning more specifically atmospheric emissions from marine hydrates, Etiope (2015) points out that current estimates of methane air–sea flux from hydrates (2–10 Tg CH4 yr−1 in Ciais et al., 2013, or Kirschke et al., 2013) originate from the hypothetical values of Cicerone and Oremland (1988). No experimental data or estimation procedures have been explicitly described along the chain of references since then (Denman et al., 2007; IPCC, 2001; Kirschke et al., 2013; Lelieveld et al., 1998). It was estimated that ∼ 473 Tg CH4 has been released in the water column over 100 years (Kretschmer et al., 2015). Those few teragrams per year become negligible once consumption in the water column has been accounted for. While events such as submarine slumps may trigger local releases of considerable amounts of methane from hydrates that may reach the atmosphere (Etiope, 2015; Paull et al., 2002), on a global scale, present-day atmospheric methane emissions from hydrates do not appear to be a significant source to the atmosphere, and at least formally, we should consider 0 (< 0.1) Tg CH4 yr−1 emissions.

BornFromTheVoid

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1214
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 529
  • Likes Given: 166
Re: Arctic Methane Release
« Reply #1153 on: August 21, 2020, 12:02:25 PM »
I'm an author on a study that should be available online to view next week, that has some relevance to Arctic methane release, particularly from coastal erosion and thermokarst. Will hopefully have 2, possibly 3, more related studies out before the end of the year or early next year.
I recently joined the twitter thing, where I post more analysis, pics and animations: @Icy_Samuel

nanning

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 2369
  • 0Kg CO₂, 37 KWh/wk,125L H₂O/wk, No offspring
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 285
  • Likes Given: 20037
Re: Arctic Methane Release
« Reply #1154 on: August 21, 2020, 05:04:54 PM »
Interesting.
What's the main topic BornFromTheVoid?
Please post the link here if you will :).
"It is preoccupation with possessions, more than anything else, that prevents us from living freely and nobly" - Bertrand Russell
"It is preoccupation with what other people from your groups think of you, that prevents you from living freely and nobly" - Nanning
Why do you keep accumulating stuff?

BornFromTheVoid

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1214
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 529
  • Likes Given: 166
Re: Arctic Methane Release
« Reply #1155 on: August 21, 2020, 06:04:00 PM »
Here's the title:
Massive Ice Control on Permafrost Coast Erosion and Sensitivity.

It will be in GRL. A lot of it is from my PhD research,though I'm further down the author list as more senior people take the main authorship positions:(. This one is primarily based on our use of passive seismics to detect and map out variations in subsurface layers of ice. This was used with DEMs and historical shoreline analysis to describe how these ice layers alter the variations in shoreline retreat rates and vertical mass loss at our field site. Being able to detect where and how thick these ice layers are is important for determining how much carbon is in the soil too. Lots of ice = less carbon. Little ice = more carbon.
I recently joined the twitter thing, where I post more analysis, pics and animations: @Icy_Samuel

nanning

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 2369
  • 0Kg CO₂, 37 KWh/wk,125L H₂O/wk, No offspring
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 285
  • Likes Given: 20037
Re: Arctic Methane Release
« Reply #1156 on: August 21, 2020, 06:22:16 PM »
Thanks. Interesting. Looking forward to reading it (if I can understand it).
"It is preoccupation with possessions, more than anything else, that prevents us from living freely and nobly" - Bertrand Russell
"It is preoccupation with what other people from your groups think of you, that prevents you from living freely and nobly" - Nanning
Why do you keep accumulating stuff?

Ken Feldman

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1409
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 221
  • Likes Given: 137
Re: Arctic Methane Release
« Reply #1157 on: August 21, 2020, 11:34:28 PM »
Here's the title:
Massive Ice Control on Permafrost Coast Erosion and Sensitivity.

It will be in GRL. A lot of it is from my PhD research,though I'm further down the author list as more senior people take the main authorship positions:(. This one is primarily based on our use of passive seismics to detect and map out variations in subsurface layers of ice. This was used with DEMs and historical shoreline analysis to describe how these ice layers alter the variations in shoreline retreat rates and vertical mass loss at our field site. Being able to detect where and how thick these ice layers are is important for determining how much carbon is in the soil too. Lots of ice = less carbon. Little ice = more carbon.

Congratulations on being published!  I'm looking forward to reading it.

Hefaistos

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 715
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 74
  • Likes Given: 438
Re: Arctic Methane Release
« Reply #1158 on: August 22, 2020, 08:53:44 AM »
.

Tom_Mazanec

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 3616
    • View Profile
    • Planet Mazanec
  • Liked: 622
  • Likes Given: 308
Re: Arctic Methane Release
« Reply #1159 on: August 22, 2020, 01:05:00 PM »
Hefaistos, all I have of your post above is a period.
SHARKS (CROSSED OUT) MONGEESE (SIC) WITH FRICKIN LASER BEAMS ATTACHED TO THEIR HEADS

D-Penguin

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 104
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 47
  • Likes Given: 50
Re: Arctic Methane Release
« Reply #1160 on: August 22, 2020, 01:24:53 PM »
Here's the title:
Massive Ice Control on Permafrost Coast Erosion and Sensitivity.

It will be in GRL. A lot of it is from my PhD research,though I'm further down the author list as more senior people take the main authorship positions:(. This one is primarily based on our use of passive seismics to detect and map out variations in subsurface layers of ice. This was used with DEMs and historical shoreline analysis to describe how these ice layers alter the variations in shoreline retreat rates and vertical mass loss at our field site. Being able to detect where and how thick these ice layers are is important for determining how much carbon is in the soil too. Lots of ice = less carbon. Little ice = more carbon.
I would like to add my congratulations to your Published Work, regardless of your relative position in the 'pecking order' of authorship  ;D and look forward to reading the publication.

Also please continue with the refinement of your excellent graphics. A picture is worth a thousand words (or stastistics).
Remember...it's all about the Jet Stream you dummy...just a personal reminder!

nanning

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 2369
  • 0Kg CO₂, 37 KWh/wk,125L H₂O/wk, No offspring
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 285
  • Likes Given: 20037
Re: Arctic Methane Release
« Reply #1161 on: August 22, 2020, 04:44:41 PM »
I piss on 'pecking order'  :)
One doesn't take it serious but deals with it.

And I second the graphics compliment above.
"It is preoccupation with possessions, more than anything else, that prevents us from living freely and nobly" - Bertrand Russell
"It is preoccupation with what other people from your groups think of you, that prevents you from living freely and nobly" - Nanning
Why do you keep accumulating stuff?

Juan C. García

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 2064
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 993
  • Likes Given: 721
Re: Arctic Methane Release
« Reply #1162 on: September 12, 2020, 02:36:17 AM »
Quote
NEWS  10 SEPTEMBER 2020
The Arctic is burning like never before — and that’s bad news for climate change

Fires are releasing record levels of carbon dioxide, partly because they are burning ancient peatlands that have been a carbon sink.

Alexandra Witze

Wildfires blazed along the Arctic Circle this summer, incinerating tundra, blanketing Siberian cities in smoke and capping the second extraordinary fire season in a row. By the time the fire season waned at the end of last month, the blazes had emitted a record 244 megatonnes of carbon dioxide — that’s 35% more than last year, which also set records. One culprit, scientists say, could be peatlands that are burning as the top of the world melts.
...
A study published last month1 shows that northern peatlands could eventually shift from being a net sink for carbon to a net source of carbon, further accelerating climate change.
https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-02568-y?utm_source=Nature+Briefing&utm_campaign=44f6a8b6bc-briefing-dy-20200911&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_c9dfd39373-44f6a8b6bc-44556745

1.
Hugelius, G. et al. Proc. Natl Acad. Sci. USA 117, 20438–20446 (2020).
https://www.pnas.org/content/117/34/20438
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

glennbuck

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 337
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 120
  • Likes Given: 30
Re: Arctic Methane Release
« Reply #1163 on: October 14, 2020, 04:15:35 PM »
https://www.commondreams.org/news/2019/10/09/truly-terrifying-scientists-studying-underwater-permafrost-thaw-find-area-arctic

Scientists studying the consequences of methane emissions from underwater permafrost in the Arctic Ocean announced this week that they found a 50-square-foot area of the East Siberian Sea "boiling with methane bubbles."

"This is the most powerful seep I have ever been able to observe," lead scientist Igor Semiletov said Monday, using a term for methane gas bubbling up from the seafloor to the surface. "No one has ever recorded anything similar."

Ken Feldman

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1409
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 221
  • Likes Given: 137
Re: Arctic Methane Release
« Reply #1164 on: October 14, 2020, 06:10:18 PM »
https://www.commondreams.org/news/2019/10/09/truly-terrifying-scientists-studying-underwater-permafrost-thaw-find-area-arctic

Scientists studying the consequences of methane emissions from underwater permafrost in the Arctic Ocean announced this week that they found a 50-square-foot area of the East Siberian Sea "boiling with methane bubbles."

"This is the most powerful seep I have ever been able to observe," lead scientist Igor Semiletov said Monday, using a term for methane gas bubbling up from the seafloor to the surface. "No one has ever recorded anything similar."

Semiletov is regarded as having been on more Arctic expeditions looking for methane seeps than anyone.  The most powerful seep he has been able to observe in his decades of research is 50 square feet, or about 8 feet (less than 3 meters) in diameter. Please keep that in mind when reading about the Arctic thaw.

Humans release far more methane from leaking oil wells than the Arctic releases from permafrost thaw. 

Shared Humanity

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 147
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 95
  • Likes Given: 5
Re: Arctic Methane Release
« Reply #1165 on: October 14, 2020, 06:31:53 PM »
https://www.commondreams.org/news/2019/10/09/truly-terrifying-scientists-studying-underwater-permafrost-thaw-find-area-arctic

Scientists studying the consequences of methane emissions from underwater permafrost in the Arctic Ocean announced this week that they found a 50-square-foot area of the East Siberian Sea "boiling with methane bubbles."

"This is the most powerful seep I have ever been able to observe," lead scientist Igor Semiletov said Monday, using a term for methane gas bubbling up from the seafloor to the surface. "No one has ever recorded anything similar."

Semiletov is regarded as having been on more Arctic expeditions looking for methane seeps than anyone.  The most powerful seep he has been able to observe in his decades of research is 50 square feet, or about 8 feet (less than 3 meters) in diameter. Please keep that in mind when reading about the Arctic thaw.

Humans release far more methane from leaking oil wells than the Arctic releases from permafrost thaw.

Not the way to look at it.

Corrective action to reduce methane emissions due to extraction are feasible. There is no corrective action to reduce methane seeps caused by the melting of permafrost.

Ken Feldman

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1409
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 221
  • Likes Given: 137
Re: Arctic Methane Release
« Reply #1166 on: October 14, 2020, 08:46:35 PM »
I'm just saying don't give up.  This isn't as bad as the media makes this out to be.  Semiletov has been on 45 cruises over several decades and this is the largest seep he has found.  The subsea permafrost beneath the Arctic has been thawing since the last ice age and it will continue to do so until the next ice age.  Don't worry about something we can't control.

In contrast, leaking oil and gas wells are emitting far more methane each and every day.  Here's a news story about the latest EU proposal to deal with them.

https://www.climatechangenews.com/2020/10/14/eu-considers-crackdown-methane-leaks-imported-oil-gas/

Quote
EU considers crackdown on methane leaks from imported oil and gas
Published on 14/10/2020

An EU methane emissions standard would put pressure on suppliers like Russia and Algeria to stop polluting gas leaks and venting, but proposals lack detail

By Isabelle Gerretsen

The European Union is considering imposing binding methane emissions standards on oil and gas imports, as well as making fossil fuel companies report and repair methane leaks.

In its methane strategy published on Wednesday, the European Commission declared a commitment to tackling emissions from methane, which is the second-largest contributor to global warming after carbon dioxide.

Quote
The oil and gas industry could achieve a 75% reduction in methane emissions by 2030 using current technology, according to the International Energy Agency.

Methane emissions are rising rapidly, with new satellite data from technology company Kayrros revealing that they have increased by 32% in the past year. According to Kayrros, there are around 100 high-volume leaks happening around the world at any one time. Half of these methane hotspots occur in regions with coal mining and oil and gas industries. One of the worst culprits is Russia – Europe’s largest supplier of natural gas.

Quote
The EU produces 5% of global methane emissions internally but as the world’s largest importer of gas it plays a major role in influencing the climate policies of other countries, the strategy notes.

The EU imports around 47% of internationally traded gas, Poppy Kalesi, director of global energy at the Environmental Defense Fund, told Climate Home. Companies including Shell and BP have set voluntary targets to curb methane emissions, but legislative action is needed to achieve global reductions, according to Kalesi.

vox_mundi

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 4077
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 2381
  • Likes Given: 316
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

kassy

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 2452
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 1168
  • Likes Given: 1018
Re: Arctic Methane Release
« Reply #1168 on: October 15, 2020, 05:49:30 PM »
I'm just saying don't give up.  This isn't as bad as the media makes this out to be.  Semiletov has been on 45 cruises over several decades and this is the largest seep he has found.  The subsea permafrost beneath the Arctic has been thawing since the last ice age and it will continue to do so until the next ice age.  Don't worry about something we can't control.

On Robert Scribblers blog the simple line was if you are worried about Arctic Methane help reduce overall CO2 because that is the main driver.

The overall overshoot on our carbon budget will result in some global temperature rise X which will then provoke all kinds of consequences including some level of methane emissions which would not have been achieved if we had been ambitious and smart enough to aim for a 1C rise.

We do control it but can only effect it by meaningful carbon/methane cuts in our system.

45 cruises over several decades and this is the largest seep he has found

But how to interpret this? There are a number of known seep areas which they will probably visit every couple of years. If last years find is the biggest ever this also means they are growing over time as you would expect.
Þetta minnismerki er til vitnis um að við vitum hvað er að gerast og hvað þarf að gera. Aðeins þú veist hvort við gerðum eitthvað.