Archimid, that's the view of most of the scientists who study climate change, not just one. That's why the UNFCCC agreed to the 2C temperature limit increase in 1992 and reaffirmed it under the Paris Treaty in 2015 and in the IPCC 2018 report.
I know. That is the consensus. But the consensus is wrong. I know that is quite a claim, but I honestly believe it is true. I believe scientists have too many forces that stop them from laying out the true risks of climate change. I think I know the reason why I can see the truth and they can't (it is most certainly not that I'm smarter than they are), but I rather keep it to myself. It could just be madness. Time will tell.
Keep in mind that the long interglacials (thousands of years long) were caused because the axial tilt of the Earth meant much higher solar radiation in the Arctic than we are seeing now.
I don't believe that is true. What causes interglacials? Last time I checked it is unknown. M. cycles and GHG's are not enough to start them, however, M. cycles and CO2 are the main drivers of interglacials and without them, there are no interglacials.
M.cycles and GHG's reinforce each other over 10k-20k years to reach the interglacial maximum and then temperature precipitously drops, except this last interglacial.
Our interglacial differ from the ones of the past in that the peak wasn't as high ( Younger Dryas probably caused this) and Temperatures remained high for 10k years after the peak temperatures, instead of dropping fast to match the decreased solar radiation.
So the forcing on the Arctic was much higher than the we are seeing through global forcing of greenhouse gases, even with polar amplification (which also occurred during the interglacial periods as ice melted and the albedo decreased).
The forcing on the Arctic at Holocene Maximum was not higher than today because there was a big chunk of Laurentride ice sheet left until about 5k years ago. Even when M. cycle forcing was greater than today the Laurentide ice sheet an other remnants of the last ice age served the function to protect the cryosphere during summer, much like snow and the Greenland ice sheet protects the ASI today. It melted in the long, 15k years process.
And the Arctic did not release the methane currently sequestered in the permafrost and hydrates during those interglacials.
It certainly did release part of it. That's part of the reason we came out of the last ice age. As glacier retreated and exposed carbon and life to warmth, that life lifted carbon up in the atmosphere re-enforcing the M. cycles.
The Arctic temperature was up to 4C higher than today during the "Holocene Climate Optimum" just 5,000 to 9,000 years ago when there were no continental ice sheets. And still the methane did not explode out of the Arctic.
The "today" used in your study means 2009 and the max was not 5,000 to 9,000 years ago, it was 10,000 .
There were massive ice sheets at that time that gave ASI protection.
Methane did not explode because there was plenty of ice for the higher temperatures to melt and warming took place over thousands of years, not decades.
Will it explode now? I don't care. A BOE is a much more immediate and evident threat.