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crandles

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Satellite Temperature Record
« on: April 10, 2015, 11:01:40 AM »
A quote:

Quote
All of this will soon be moot, anyway. Since last year we have been working on v6.0 of the UAH datasets which should be ready with the tropospheric temperature datasets before summer is out.

Not hard to guess this is from Roy Spencer. But when is the interesting part. It was 9 May 2012!, and guess what? v6.0 still isn't out.

Obviously it is proving difficult. Question is, how long should it be before he gives up and makes V6 the Po-Chedley Thorsen Fu version?

(Yes I know that is horribly snarky, but he does seem to be steadfastly ignoring Po-Chedley Thorsen Fu and preferring to whine about being attacked by Guardian by at least partly ignoring the problem they are attacking and focusing on something else. See Stoat comments for more
http://scienceblogs.com/stoat/2015/04/06/she-dont-make-me-nervous-she-dont-talk-too-much/
WC thought my quote was good enough to make a post out of it so I hope people don't mind if I share it here.)

Edit: Authors correction
« Last Edit: April 10, 2015, 11:33:57 AM by crandles »

Neven

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Re: Satellite Temperature Record
« Reply #1 on: April 10, 2015, 12:28:25 PM »
It isn't horribly snarky, it's a disgrace.

And when is someone going to have a look at RSS? Someone probably already is.
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crandles

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Re: Satellite Temperature Record
« Reply #2 on: April 10, 2015, 12:34:02 PM »
It isn't horribly snarky, it's a disgrace.

What is a disgrace? My post or the situation? (feel free to edit to tone down if necessary.)

Cross posting from Stoat:

Quote from: William Connolley
provided somewhat tactlessly by the normally urbane Crandles”

How dare [WC] question my tact! – At least I didnt quote
“The earliest Version 6 of the UAH dataset would be available is the early January update of the December temperature data.” from Dec 9th 2011. Oh, errr oops ;)

Neven

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Re: Satellite Temperature Record
« Reply #3 on: April 10, 2015, 12:50:42 PM »
It isn't horribly snarky, it's a disgrace.

What is a disgrace? My post or the situation? (feel free to edit to tone down if necessary.)

Sorry for the ambiguity. Spencer is a disgrace.  ;)
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jai mitchell

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Re: Satellite Temperature Record
« Reply #4 on: April 10, 2015, 05:50:55 PM »
The disgrace is that a once reputable scientist is captured by either (or all the above) by his ideology, previous narrative or hubris so that he cannot face the scientific evidence that proves his work is helping to make the citizens of his own country less safe.


http://www.theguardian.com/environment/climate-consensus-97-per-cent/2015/mar/25/one-satellite-data-set-is-underestimating-global-warming

Quote
To summarize the amplification factor, the new study obtains a value of 1.4. If the diurnal cycle is eliminated using climate models, the result is 1.49. According to NOAA and RSS, the values are 1.31 and 1.10, respectively. Again, UAH is the outlier with an amplification factor of 0.56.

I wrote to Stephen Po-Chedley and asked for a summary. He told me,

   
Quote
We developed an observationally based diurnal cycle correction to remove the influence of satellite diurnal sampling drifts on long-term tropospheric temperature trends. This is important because other analyses (RSS and NOAA) used a model-derived diurnal cycle correction and questions have been raised about the validity of this bias correction. Trends from our work are in accord with trends from global circulation models and basic theory.

    We also found that the model-derived diurnal cycle correction used by RSS and NOAA is similar to our bias correction. The tropical tropospheric trend from the present study is 2.5 times that from another group, UAH. While this work shows that it is possible to understand discrepancies between MSU/AMSU datasets there are still important differences between the datasets that need further scrutiny.
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Ned W

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Re: Satellite Temperature Record
« Reply #5 on: April 10, 2015, 09:14:37 PM »
Glad to see you cross-posting this here, crandles.  I've been hoping WMC's posts at Stoat would goad Roy into saying something, anything, in the way of a response to Po-Chedley et al.  Nothing yet, though. 

As for version 6, I can somewhat sympathize ... I've often been a bit, ah, "optimistic" about when I'd be able to deliver something.  But not off by three years

I do like your idea of adopting P-C et al. as the new version 6.  You should post that suggestion on Roy's blog.  David Appell has mentioned P-C there already, to no great effect.

The discussion of this at SkS was horribly confused.  People mixed up the LT and MT issues.  It would be great if someone could figure out whether this problem with the MT data will also affect the more "popular" LT data.  But that would widen the gap with RSS, not shrink it. 

WTF is up with RSS LT anyway?

crandles

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Re: Satellite Temperature Record
« Reply #6 on: April 10, 2015, 10:59:18 PM »
I do like your idea of adopting P-C et al. as the new version 6.  You should post that suggestion on Roy's blog.  David Appell has mentioned P-C there already, to no great effect.

I assumed that asking such a provocative suggestion there would get me banned but maybe Roy doesn't do that judging by number of Doug Cotton posts. I did add a smiley wink to the posts. It is a bit tactless given the situation with his daughter in 2012.

I see J K Strang has raised P-C et al. there today.

Asking someone who is "U.S. Science Team leader for the Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer (AMSR-E) on NASA's Aqua satellite" to give up on his version 6 and use someone else's version seems I bit cheeky when I wouldn't have a clue what to do. I am inclined to wait a bit longer before suggesting it, but feel free to suggest it to him yourself.

Ned W

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Re: Satellite Temperature Record
« Reply #7 on: April 10, 2015, 11:42:29 PM »
I was unaware of his daughter's accident -- you're right, it would be rude to point out there that he promised this back in 2012, given that history. 

But the more general question of "where is v6?" is certainly fair, and I love the idea of suggesting that P-C 2015 could become UAH v6.

I wouldn't post on Roy's blog as I've had too many negative experiences with comments at related sites (WUWT).  But I'm very glad that people like Joel Shore and David Appell do.

Niall Dollard

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Re: Satellite Temperature Record
« Reply #8 on: November 05, 2017, 07:43:14 PM »
FWIW October 2017 was the 7th warmest month ever in the UAH series. (He's on version 6 now)

A significant rise considering we are well past the El Nino. All that ocean heat escaping upwards into the lower atmosphere ?


jai mitchell

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Re: Satellite Temperature Record
« Reply #9 on: January 04, 2018, 07:39:52 PM »
I just noticed this playing with woods for trees http://www.woodfortrees.org/plot/uah6/mean:6/from:2015/plot/rss/mean:6/from:2015/plot/gistemp/mean:6/from:2015/plot/hadcrut4gl/mean:6/from:2015

I was reviewing an old John Christy lecture to remember the bald-faced lies that they are all starting to swallow with a good helping of crow and I wanted to compare the revised RSS values with the UAH (fake) data.

Then I noticed this.

Does anyone have a good idea why the divergence between RSS and UAH vs GISSTemp and HADCRUT4?  How is it possible that BOTH satellite MSU are showing warming but the surface temp data sets are showing cooling?!??!!!!!!????!!!!!!

This is especially disconcerting since the RSS and UAH have spectacularly low coverage of of the Arctic.

Thoughts?

I could theorize of a sudden and new feature in the upper atmosphere that is causing lower stratospheric warming and cooling the earth but then people would start accusing me of some kind of geoengineering conspiracy. . .  :o

it is also interesting to note that ENSO did this at the exact same time.

note 2015/2016 El Nino no divergence
the last 9 months was not a significant change to El Nino
There is no analogy to this even in the historic record.

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Niall Dollard

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Re: Satellite Temperature Record
« Reply #10 on: March 03, 2020, 08:43:00 AM »
February 2020 had the third highest monthly anomaly, in all the various re-incarnations of the UAH temperature series. And no big El Nino this time.