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Author Topic: Surviving the Upcoming Climatic Upheavals in the 1st World  (Read 4530 times)

Bob Wallace

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I'm bringing this over from another thread rather than go further off-topic there.

Quote
I am more focused on an individual, family and small community level of how to get through the coming lean times.

Here's my take on what one should do.  The first bit is quite selfish, but most of us do look after ours and ourselves first...

1) Do a thoughtful analysis of where you live.  Not just your personal residence but also your community and financial base.

If you live in a place like Arizona which is facing water problems, close to a coastal area which may get hit by even stronger hurricanes, or in even a 500 year flood plain, give thought to relocating.

Even if your house/business would probably survive, your investment may not. 

Consider selling out while property values are good and let someone else ride it into the ground. 

(I did warn you this was going to be selfish.)

2) Invest as much as you can right now.  Keep your debt load as low as possible. 

Climate disruption is likely to lead to economic disruptions and fairly certainly to higher food prices.  You may have to spend a lot more on food in the future.  You may not have extra money to invest for retirement and you may need those unnecessary loan payment dollars at the grocery store.

3)  You might want to start messing around with learning how to grow and preserve food.  If all you've got is a sunny window, grow some herbs.  It will teach you how to grow stuff.  If you've got a balcony then grow yourself some salads.  Lettuce and cherry tomatoes do quite well in pots.

Growing your own and preserving some is a great way to cut your grocery store bills.  You don't necessarily need to be doing it now, but having the skills in hand can be reassuring.

You don't need a large area in order to produce a lot of food.  Get a copy of John Jeavon's "How to Grow More Vegetables" excellent book.  He'll show you how to grow a tremendous amount of food for a family of four in less than a 40'x40' back yard.  How to provide a lot of food for one person with only a 20'x20' space.  His 'stuff' works.  I've been using him as my guru for almost 40 years. 

If you've got outdoor space then plant some fruit trees.  It takes a few years for them to get into production.  Stick some edible shrubs into your landscaping. 

Learn to eat less meat.  That's where the really big cost increases are likely to come. 

Then, helping your community.

1) Cut your own energy use.  Install solar if possible.  What you don't use can be used by someone else and what you cleanly generate can be used to cut the use of fossil fuels.

2) Do what you can to educate others.  Anything you can think of.

3) Support and vote for people who will work to make things better rather than those who will fight to keep us on the destructive path.

jonthed

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Re: Surviving the Upcoming Climatic Upheavals in the 1st World
« Reply #1 on: May 14, 2013, 04:28:10 AM »
Thanks for the topic, and the tips.

Apart from growing fruit and veg yourself, what about stocking up on staples like rice, or flour? I see some people keep chickens and rabbits for food, this seems a good idea to me if you have the space. Aquaponics seems even better if you fancy the challenge!

But are we talking about protecting ourselves from high prices, or food shortages?

Of course I also agree with trying to make your home energy efficient and getting solar etc.

Ideally I'd like to see larger community efforts to become more resilient and self sufficient, where the Town as a whole implements various community growing projects etc.



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Re: Surviving the Upcoming Climatic Upheavals in the 1st World
« Reply #2 on: May 14, 2013, 06:13:30 AM »
Thanks for the topic, and the tips.

Apart from growing fruit and veg yourself, what about stocking up on staples like rice, or flour? I see some people keep chickens and rabbits for food, this seems a good idea to me if you have the space. Aquaponics seems even better if you fancy the challenge!

But are we talking about protecting ourselves from high prices, or food shortages?

Of course I also agree with trying to make your home energy efficient and getting solar etc.

Ideally I'd like to see larger community efforts to become more resilient and self sufficient, where the Town as a whole implements various community growing projects etc.
I think it worth noting that no amount of stockpiling provides a long term sustainable strategy when we reach a point of general collapse. The lights likely aren't coming back on later - not in our lifetimes - or for centuries or even longer (I'm going with longer right now as there is no significant effort I can see to increase the resilience of civilisation or create a safety net for it to collapse down to - ie managed degradation).

The most important thing therefore is to be able to work out how you will produce or obtain your food - and in areas with higher initial population density, how you can retain both the food and the means of production.

An initial stockpile might help you through the initial period, gain you thinking time, and give you some advantage over those without if you manage to avoid them for long enough to enjoy it. It can't solve any longer term problem.

I have a high mobility strategy. Even if I wanted to settle in a location, I can't afford a house (or land) anywhere I can legally live. That means being able (in theory) to relocate globally to try to find resources (in practice I imagine in a collapse scenario for at least some time, areas of high population density and relatively overloaded carrying capacity would also be high conflict areas and undesirable places to be).

If one is serious about planning - if you are asking what you will eat, and what tools you will have and use - you are asking the wrong damn question. What matters - and what should have always mattered - is what will your children and grandchildren do? If you think you will scavenge or stockpile supplies - good for you, you might give yourself some short term selfish gains. What will your descendants do when the tools break, the metals corrode, and the stockpiles are gone?

Not your problem? They're smart, they'll solve it later? Sound like a perpetuation of the current mess?

Once you start thinking long term, it puts the short term stuff into perspective. Important - yes - but stupid and selfish to fixate on it at the cost of people who must live later than you.

Bob Wallace

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Re: Surviving the Upcoming Climatic Upheavals in the 1st World
« Reply #3 on: May 14, 2013, 07:18:41 AM »
If you live in a first world/developed country then it is quite unlikely that you're going to be thrown into a situation in which you'll need to go all "survivalist".

"When we reach a point of general collapse" applies if you live in Somalia or some other country which is already on the edge.




OldLeatherneck

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Re: Surviving the Upcoming Climatic Upheavals in the 1st World
« Reply #4 on: May 15, 2013, 01:30:30 AM »
I would suggest that everyone who is concerned about the future re: AGW/CC, take a personal inventory to determine what they could realistically do in the near-term.

Among the things (by no means comprehensive) to identify are:

1.  How will AGW/CC impact you personally in your present locale?
2.  Your age.
3.  Financial health. Can you afford to easily relocate, if necessary?
4.  Physical health.  Do you have special needs that may limit your future plans?
5.  How willing are you to relocate? 
      NOTE:  I spent the majority of my career in a travelling capacity, with both short-term and long-term assignments, domestically and internationally.  Many individuals and their families undergo a great deal of stress when they leave their normal environs, while others are thrilled to experience living among other peoples in vastly different cultures.
6.  What are your skills/aptitudes?  If you become a climate refugee or migrant, what skills can you offer in your new community?  Are you willing to learn new skills?

This is just a beginning of things individuals need to consider when preparing for life in dramatically changing world.
"Share Your Knowledge.  It's a Way to Achieve Immortality."  ......the Dalai Lama

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Re: Surviving the Upcoming Climatic Upheavals in the 1st World
« Reply #5 on: May 15, 2013, 03:50:21 AM »
5.  How willing are you to relocate? 
6.  What are your skills/aptitudes?  If you become a climate refugee or migrant, what skills can you offer in your new community?  Are you willing to learn new skills?
I think it ought to be noted that if you're leaving relocation until the last minute, you are going to be an outsider pretty much anywhere you go - and likely to face hostility from the host population you are trying to integrate with. If one intends to relocate from fixed location to fixed location (as opposed to "general mobility") it's arguably best to go there quite a long time before, so one can be integrated before social stresses build up.

There is also a much darker question one should ask oneself:

Just how far are you prepared to go to survive?

It's an important question too. As the workers of Berlin said in the war (and I understand the viewpoint, personal attitude notwithstanding):
"Better a horrible end, than an endless horror."

Before people get all negative about what I'm saying here, I can only say - if you don't want to confront this future (or for your children to face it, if you think it will take much longer than I do), you ought to be moving heaven and earth to effect change in society such that it doesn't come to pass. If one can't do that and instead just makes excuses for oneself and one's nation, one shouldn't be critical of those who prepare for the consequences of our collective failure.

Tom_Mazanec

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Re: Surviving the Upcoming Climatic Upheavals in the 1st World
« Reply #6 on: August 27, 2019, 09:32:45 PM »
Climate Migrants within the U.S. Will Need a Strong Health System
https://blogs.scientificamerican.com/observations/climate-migrants-within-the-u-s-will-need-a-strong-health-system/
Quote
Every region of the U.S. stands to suffer—from unprecedented storm surges in the Northeast to widespread crop failure in the Midwest to dramatic heat extremes throughout the South. By 2050, if we have increased Earth’s temperatures another 0.5 degree Celsius past preindustrial levels, as the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change anticipates, the U.S. can expect a wave of climate migrants, mostly internal, fleeing agricultural regions—as temperatures soar past the optimal reproductive range of most staple crops—and coastal cities—as flooding and stronger hurricanes pummel economic powerhouses.

The Scars of Being Uprooted
A response to “What the Dead Man Said” by Chinelo Onwualu.
https://slate.com/technology/2019/08/what-the-dead-man-said-response-climate-change-migration-trauma.html
Quote
Chinelo Onwualu’s short story “What the Dead Man Said” speaks to and delves deeper than that universal theme. The reader enters a futuristic society suffering from climate change–induced disaster and migration, a place where human bodies of those once enslaved are treated as a commodity and where unhealed trauma lies beneath the surface.
SHARKS (CROSSED OUT) MONGEESE (SIC) WITH FRICKIN LASER BEAMS ATTACHED TO THEIR HEADS

Shared Humanity

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Re: Surviving the Upcoming Climatic Upheavals in the 1st World
« Reply #7 on: August 27, 2019, 09:52:04 PM »
2) Invest as much as you can right now.  Keep your debt load as low as possible. 

If by invest, you mean traditional investment in stocks, bonds and the like, I would caution against relying on these kinds of investments as the financial markets will implode long before we reach a full collapse.

TerryM

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Re: Surviving the Upcoming Climatic Upheavals in the 1st World
« Reply #8 on: August 27, 2019, 10:23:23 PM »
2) Invest as much as you can right now.  Keep your debt load as low as possible. 

If by invest, you mean traditional investment in stocks, bonds and the like, I would caution against relying on these kinds of investments as the financial markets will implode long before we reach a full collapse.
Could we invest in neighborhood BBQs - something to grow some sense of community?
Terry

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Re: Surviving the Upcoming Climatic Upheavals in the 1st World
« Reply #9 on: August 28, 2019, 12:06:53 AM »
Terry,

No way should we invest in community BBQs or neighbourhood pizza ovens. We have plenty already.

Instead, I would suggest a stiff tax on charcoal. The revenues should be spent on improving soils through burial of Nitrogen-enriched biochar.

TerryM

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Re: Surviving the Upcoming Climatic Upheavals in the 1st World
« Reply #10 on: August 28, 2019, 12:28:45 AM »
Terry,

No way should we invest in community BBQs or neighbourhood pizza ovens. We have plenty already.

Instead, I would suggest a stiff tax on charcoal. The revenues should be spent on improving soils through burial of Nitrogen-enriched biochar.
You're fortunate to live in such a forward thinking community.
Could we drink lots of beer, then pee on the briquettes when our franks are finished?
Terry

Klondike Kat

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Re: Surviving the Upcoming Climatic Upheavals in the 1st World
« Reply #11 on: August 28, 2019, 03:27:15 AM »
If you live in a first world/developed country then it is quite unlikely that you're going to be thrown into a situation in which you'll need to go all "survivalist".

"When we reach a point of general collapse" applies if you live in Somalia or some other country which is already on the edge.

Agreed.  The first world is unlikely to collapse.

TerryM

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Re: Surviving the Upcoming Climatic Upheavals in the 1st World
« Reply #12 on: August 28, 2019, 03:37:58 AM »
If you live in a first world/developed country then it is quite unlikely that you're going to be thrown into a situation in which you'll need to go all "survivalist".

"When we reach a point of general collapse" applies if you live in Somalia or some other country which is already on the edge.

Agreed.  The first world is unlikely to collapse.
What is it that you expect the 1st world to do?
And when do you think that they'll do it?
Terry

miki

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Re: Surviving the Upcoming Climatic Upheavals in the 1st World
« Reply #13 on: August 28, 2019, 04:22:20 AM »
If you live in a first world/developed country then it is quite unlikely that you're going to be thrown into a situation in which you'll need to go all "survivalist".

"When we reach a point of general collapse" applies if you live in Somalia or some other country which is already on the edge.

Agreed.  The first world is unlikely to collapse.
What is it that you expect the 1st world to do?
And when do you think that they'll do it?
Terry

This discussion reminded me of a beautiful article I read some years ago. I love people that are out of the sea of delusion. Some of my best friends are soldiers.

https://opinionator.blogs.nytimes.com/2013/11/10/learning-how-to-die-in-the-anthropocene/

Learning How to Die in the Anthropocene
BY ROY SCRANTON

"The biggest problem climate change poses isn’t how the Department of Defense should plan for resource wars, or how we should put up sea walls to protect Alphabet City, or when we should evacuate Hoboken. It won’t be addressed by buying a Prius, signing a treaty, or turning off the air-conditioning. The biggest problem we face is a philosophical one: understanding that this civilization is already dead. The sooner we confront this problem, and the sooner we realize there’s nothing we can do to save ourselves, the sooner we can get down to the hard work of adapting, with mortal humility, to our new reality."

Klondike Kat

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Re: Surviving the Upcoming Climatic Upheavals in the 1st World
« Reply #14 on: August 28, 2019, 04:23:14 AM »
If you live in a first world/developed country then it is quite unlikely that you're going to be thrown into a situation in which you'll need to go all "survivalist".

"When we reach a point of general collapse" applies if you live in Somalia or some other country which is already on the edge.

Agreed.  The first world is unlikely to collapse.
What is it that you expect the 1st world to do?
And when do you think that they'll do it?
Terry

1.  The same as always - innovate
2.  Today and tomorrow

TerryM

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Re: Surviving the Upcoming Climatic Upheavals in the 1st World
« Reply #15 on: August 28, 2019, 04:48:16 AM »
What is it that you expect the 1st world to do?
And when do you think that they'll do it?
Terry

1.  The same as always - innovate
2.  Today and tomorrow
Kat
Have you followed any of Gerontocrat's graphs from the past week or so?





This is innovating - same as ever.
Today, Yesterday & the Day Before That.


It's not much to hang your hopes on. :(
Terry

KiwiGriff

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Re: Surviving the Upcoming Climatic Upheavals in the 1st World
« Reply #16 on: August 28, 2019, 05:26:43 AM »
It will not effect us because...first world... we are rich.
Nope.
Stranded assets. Trillions invested in oil, gas and coal  that will  be worthless.
Rising costs of natural disasters.
Displaced refugees from both poor regions and your own forced to move due to rising seas.
Food security.
Each of these things in isolation is not a threat in the first world.
Accruing simultaneously  they very much are a threat to your economy's,   political systems and lifestyles.
We don't know if or when we will reach tipping points that flip the climate into new unheralded states.
Anyone certain that we will not collapse civilization is basing their view on nothing but faith.
There is to much unknown and to many possibility's to support such certainty.




TerryM

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Re: Surviving the Upcoming Climatic Upheavals in the 1st World
« Reply #17 on: August 28, 2019, 08:36:33 AM »
^^
Ramen


In the poorest of the 3d world many have survived with very little for a long time. Here in the 1st world most will panic the day the grid winks out permanently.
We've never hunted rats for sustenance, believe there is something morally wrong with cannibalism, and few will kill another for a few days food.
Humans will certainly survive, (assuming no government does the unthinkable), but civilization will die.


Terry

bluice

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Re: Surviving the Upcoming Climatic Upheavals in the 1st World
« Reply #18 on: August 28, 2019, 12:44:09 PM »
It's a common belief that a highly sophisticated society is the most vulnerable to shocks but is there data to back it up?

My claim is that because sophisticated society (let's call it 1st World, or 1W in short) is so affluent it is actually more resilient to shocks. Main reason is that there is more "loose" to spare before essential life support is reduced. 2nd reason is superior infrastructure, both physical and human.

Just look at a hurricane hitting Florida and let's say a country like Haiti. In the US people are informed, able to materially prepare themselves or evacuate if necessary, and material and financial assistance is available after the incident. In Haiti (or any other developing country) there is little advance warning, very little material aid available and people cannot afford to relocate. As a consequence 1W country suffers little loss of life and high material damage that can relatively easily be compensated. 3W country suffers high loss of life and even the modest material damage is hard to fix.

A local crop failure doesn't hurt 1W country which will buy food from the world market. 3W country experiences famine and becomes dependent on outside help to feed its people. It takes a lot more to turn Canada into a failed state than Ethiopia.

1W country has well working public and private institutions to support itself during crisis.

Etc.

We 1W people are no more civilized or "softer" than our brothers and sisters in the developing world. There is no nobility in being poor. If push comes to shove 1W people will just as well live in basic conditions and hunt rats for food as 3W people, we just don't have to do it now.
In PIOMAS we trust

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Re: Surviving the Upcoming Climatic Upheavals in the 1st Wor
« Reply #19 on: August 28, 2019, 03:46:36 PM »
Bluice,

If you care to shift you cases just a bit west, you may learn about the difference between a 3W and a 1W country, when it comes down to basic resiliency.

When Cuba is threatened by a tropical cyclone (which is atm. projected by both ECMWF and JMA free of charge), the authorities have contingency plans to move the cattle uphill in order to escape flooding.

In Texas, still relying on cheap oil, generators, pumps, pick-ups, helicopters, FEMA, AF1 and what have you, they have decided to put the wagons in a ring and fight out the elements. The latter strategy is epitomized by Lago del Mar par excellence, and will - mainly due to cultural stubborness - last a few more decades at best.

The longterm view - mainly held by the Cubans out of neccesity - may fare a better chance of keeping communities alive after the first few vaves of destruction.

So, no matter whether you are an "Englishman in New York", a Cuban refugee in Texas, or an
American cruise tourist stranded in Havana, you will be out of your depths. Staying at home lifting newborn calves to the hills in Cuba, or loading your shotguns in Texas makes a helluva difference.

Shared Humanity

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Re: Surviving the Upcoming Climatic Upheavals in the 1st World
« Reply #20 on: August 28, 2019, 08:57:50 PM »
If you live in a first world/developed country then it is quite unlikely that you're going to be thrown into a situation in which you'll need to go all "survivalist".

"When we reach a point of general collapse" applies if you live in Somalia or some other country which is already on the edge.

Agreed.  The first world is unlikely to collapse.

The 1st world economy most certainly will collapse. The financial crisis a decade ago will look like a picnic in the park.

Shared Humanity

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Re: Surviving the Upcoming Climatic Upheavals in the 1st World
« Reply #21 on: August 28, 2019, 09:09:40 PM »

This discussion reminded me of a beautiful article I read some years ago. I love people that are out of the sea of delusion. Some of my best friends are soldiers.

https://opinionator.blogs.nytimes.com/2013/11/10/learning-how-to-die-in-the-anthropocene/

Learning How to Die in the Anthropocene
BY ROY SCRANTON

"The biggest problem climate change poses isn’t how the Department of Defense should plan for resource wars, or how we should put up sea walls to protect Alphabet City, or when we should evacuate Hoboken. It won’t be addressed by buying a Prius, signing a treaty, or turning off the air-conditioning. The biggest problem we face is a philosophical one: understanding that this civilization is already dead. The sooner we confront this problem, and the sooner we realize there’s nothing we can do to save ourselves, the sooner we can get down to the hard work of adapting, with mortal humility, to our new reality."

Very nice column. Hard to argue with it.

Klondike Kat

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Re: Surviving the Upcoming Climatic Upheavals in the 1st World
« Reply #22 on: August 28, 2019, 09:23:12 PM »
If you live in a first world/developed country then it is quite unlikely that you're going to be thrown into a situation in which you'll need to go all "survivalist".

"When we reach a point of general collapse" applies if you live in Somalia or some other country which is already on the edge.

Agreed.  The first world is unlikely to collapse.

The 1st world economy most certainly will collapse. The financial crisis a decade ago will look like a picnic in the park.

Based on what evidence or logic?

jai mitchell

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Re: Surviving the Upcoming Climatic Upheavals in the 1st World
« Reply #23 on: August 28, 2019, 09:39:49 PM »
Haiku of Past Futures
My "burning embers"
are not tri-color bar graphs
+3C today

nanning

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Re: Surviving the Upcoming Climatic Upheavals in the 1st World
« Reply #24 on: August 29, 2019, 07:05:36 PM »
Thanks jai :).
"It is preoccupation with possessions, more than anything else, that prevents us from living freely and nobly" - Bertrand Russell
   Simple: minimize your possessions and be free and kind    It's just a mindset.       Refugees welcome

nanning

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Re: Surviving the Upcoming Climatic Upheavals in the 1st World
« Reply #25 on: January 21, 2020, 07:59:26 AM »
   Climate refugees can't be returned home, says landmark UN human rights ruling

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/jan/20/climate-refugees-cant-be-returned-home-says-landmark-un-human-rights-ruling
  by Kate Lyons


  Excerpts:
It is unlawful for governments to return people to countries where their lives might be threatened by the climate crisis, a landmark ruling by the United Nations human rights committee has found.

Tens of millions of people are expected to be displaced by global heating in the next decade.

While the judgment is not formally binding on countries, it points to legal obligations that countries have under international law.

“What’s really important here, and why it’s quite a landmark case, is that the committee recognised that without robust action on climate at some point in the future it could well be that governments will, under international human rights law, be prohibited from sending people to places where their life is at risk or where they would face inhuman or degrading treatment,” said Prof Jane McAdam, director of the Kaldor centre for international refugee law at the University of New South Wales.


“The Pacific Islands will be the canary in the coalmines for climate-induced migrants,” said Schuetze.

“The message in this case is clear: Pacific Island states don’t need to be underwater before triggering those human rights obligations … I think we will see those cases start to emerge.”
"It is preoccupation with possessions, more than anything else, that prevents us from living freely and nobly" - Bertrand Russell
   Simple: minimize your possessions and be free and kind    It's just a mindset.       Refugees welcome

NeilT

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Re: Surviving the Upcoming Climatic Upheavals in the 1st World
« Reply #26 on: January 21, 2020, 02:17:45 PM »
Some interesting points there.

Talking 1st World, the UK imports 48% of its food.  If the supply countries collapse, people are going to starve.  Starving people don't care about how much they destroy in a mad dash to eat, nor whether what they destroy may remove their chances for eating in the future. High density city dwellers are the worst.

Making provision for a harsher future is OK, but will you be able to hold onto it?  The highest mobility people will be the marauders who kill to eat for today.  Ignoring the fact that if they kill those who produce the food they kill themselves eventually.

The architects of 1st world demise will be the very people who embrace 1st World culture the most.

We live more than 45 minutes from any city, have garden, fruit trees, veg production and chickens.  We ge  all our power from nuclear so solar is not that much of a consideration.  Yet.

Can we keep it?  I'm ex army, son and dil are police armed response and have a home with an acre of farmland 20 minutes away.  All around us the community owns shotguns and rifles for hunting.

We have a well with year round water, but it will need purifying.

As for the rest?  I have taken a stance of education and awareness for my children and grandchildren.

I started surveying every property we lived at, for climate related security, in 1996.  Everyone laughed at me then........

I am totally aligned with the "our society is already dead".  It focuses, obsessively, on the 2% minority and ignores reality.

Karma.
Being right too soon is socially unacceptable.

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El Cid

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Re: Surviving the Upcoming Climatic Upheavals in the 1st World
« Reply #27 on: January 21, 2020, 04:57:45 PM »
I feel a bit of a contradiction in the above. You presume that food exporters will somehow collapse (probably due to climate change) but believe that your orchards and land will supply you with food. How come? If climate change is so drastic that it makes food production impossible in export countries then you won't be able to produce much food either a la interstellar (the movie)

Besides: the UK was under siege between 1940-1942/43 and had very little food but they created rationing and food tickets, calory intake was lowered and it worked out. Hell, even the population got healthier as studies prove...

Bruce Steele

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Re: Surviving the Upcoming Climatic Upheavals in the 1st World
« Reply #28 on: January 21, 2020, 05:43:30 PM »
El Cid, Food surplus and food for sale are both TOTALLY dependent upon fossil fuels. Self sufficiency , family, foraging and sharing are built on a different model . One is monitory and one is survival. Water supply and sanitation are also fossil fuel surpluses. It doesn’t rain enough to supply food, water, or sanitation everywhere in the world without lots of pumps to move water around. Hungary has a recent memory of what survival looks like and it has, or had when I last visited , a population trained in survival by necessity.  Many western nations have forgotten their  home gardens and learning to grow food is a learned experience/ skill. Ditto hunting and fishing.
 Electric cars , solar power at it’s current levels, and space flight are not survival tools. We as a society investing  nothing in sustainable agriculture or how to farm without fossil fuel. So when your society is dependent upon profit, growth, and vast capital borrowing to support the rich you might wonder how it will fare when access to energy/ fossil fuels goes into rapid decline?  Most people don’t believe in the possibility of an economic depression , they think solar and wind can take over their energy grid or that government can maintain control of a desperate population while maintaining thousand mile food delivery infrastructure .
 Stay in Hungary where you might have a chance to weather the coming storm but don’t assume people in LA, San Francisco, Chicago, New York will react to hunger by patiently waiting for the government trucks to show up at a distribution center. There are way more guns in those cities than shovels. Faith is the only thing holding it all together and faith is a lousy gardener.

The Walrus

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Re: Surviving the Upcoming Climatic Upheavals in the 1st World
« Reply #29 on: January 21, 2020, 06:19:06 PM »
While Neil’s points may be valid for a country like the U.K., they do not represent the first world as a whole.  As a whole, first world countries are net exporters of food.  They will not be the ones starving, should shortages occur.  The largest net exporters are in the Americas and the Netherlands.  Aside from the U.K., the largest net food importers are all in Asia.

NeilT

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Re: Surviving the Upcoming Climatic Upheavals in the 1st World
« Reply #30 on: January 21, 2020, 07:33:31 PM »
My home is in France.....

I was mentioning the UK because I'm British so I know the problems.

In France we have had issues with drought, crop problems, failures of the grain harvest, inability to use water from the rivers due to critical levels on nuclear reactors to keep them running.

Severe canicule and sécheresse used to be every few decades.  Now they are every few years.  Crops won't grow without water.  Especially if you won't use GM crops which are engineered to withstand drought.  The EU does not allow GM crops.

When your climate changes you can't grow the crops that you used to.  Witness Australian rice production in the depths of the drought in the Murray Darling Basin throughout 2007 to 2010.

https://www.agriculture.gov.au/about/commitment/portfolio-facts/rice

In 2003 the well next door dried up.  Water was restricted, both for farmers and for gardens.  Even well access was restricted as it depletes the groundwater available for use.

Many areas in France remained in severe drought from then until 2007/8 before a return to more normal rains happened.

When doing a risk assessment it is useful to assume that everything will change when the climate changes.  Not that one thing or another will change.  There is no guarantee that 1st world surpluses will continue when the climate takes a hand.  A severe drought in the mid west will impact the grain harvest.  The Colorado water allocation is already becoming a battle ground and growers are looking at losing some of their allocation.

There will be places with too much water and water pipelines may become more important than Oil pipelines are today.

But very little of that is being planned for today and when, not if, the changes happen, it will be a cascade failure.

So it is safe to assume that W1 is not so protected as we think. 

Then we have to look at population density.  The Netherlands is #32 on the list.  The UK is at 49, France is at 94 and Australia is at 226 out of 232.  Australia is fine.  The US, at 174, is probably fine, but it is one of the highest consumers out of the list too.  It takes more land to support the average American than it does the average African.

Being right too soon is socially unacceptable.

Robert A. Heinlein

El Cid

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Re: Surviving the Upcoming Climatic Upheavals in the 1st World
« Reply #31 on: January 21, 2020, 07:44:42 PM »
El Cid, Food surplus and food for sale are both TOTALLY dependent upon fossil fuels..... So when your society is dependent upon profit, growth, and vast capital borrowing to support the rich you might wonder how it will fare when access to energy/ fossil fuels goes into rapid decline? 

Bruce, I appreciate what you are doing and I try to create some sort of similar self-sufficiency for myself on a smaller scale - because I like doing it, not because I think I will need it. I love homegrown food (tastes better), I love tending to my garden, I love being out in my private Paradise trying to work with Nature.

BUT:

1) I do not see why fossil-fuel based  agiculture would run out of fuel. We have plenty of the stuff  for decades (no peak oil in sight), and crude oil usage is anyway topping out as we change our transportation and energy systems.
 
2) Conservation /regenerative agriculture is gaining ground very fast everywhere. Practically noone knew about it 10 yrs ago, now many I know are starting down the path or contemplating it. EU agriculture funds are already partly dependent on "greening", so you get part of your government subsidy if you do cover crops, etc and this is going to accelerate in the next decade

I think there is reason to be hopeful!

Shared Humanity

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Re: Surviving the Upcoming Climatic Upheavals in the 1st World
« Reply #32 on: January 21, 2020, 09:22:14 PM »
^^
Ramen


In the poorest of the 3d world many have survived with very little for a long time. Here in the 1st world most will panic the day the grid winks out permanently.
We've never hunted rats for sustenance, believe there is something morally wrong with cannibalism, and few will kill another for a few days food.
Humans will certainly survive, (assuming no government does the unthinkable), but civilization will die.


Terry

The system of capitalism which all persons living in the developed world take for granted will not survive past 2070 and could very well disintegrate much sooner owing to humanity's tendency to choose "fight" when faced with threats.

Bruce Steele

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Re: Surviving the Upcoming Climatic Upheavals in the 1st World
« Reply #33 on: January 21, 2020, 09:40:37 PM »
“I try to create some sort of similar self-sufficiency for myself on a smaller scale - because I like doing it, not because I think I will need it. I love homegrown food (tastes better), I love tending to my garden, I love being out in my private Paradise trying to work with Nature.”
 
It is important to enjoy gardening because it doesn’t get done otherwise. I am headed back out to do some hand weeding. Can’t spend many hours on my knees anymore so short intervals , but it is sunny and perfect right now!

P-maker

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Re: Surviving the Upcoming Climatic Upheavals in the 1st World
« Reply #34 on: January 21, 2020, 10:37:50 PM »
Some folks here tend to think that plenty of oil in the vicinity will get them through the transition. They currently use phrases like - don't listen to the doomsday sayers and the apocalypse crowd.

The fact is, if you have tended your garden carefully for a couple of decades, observed climate change affect various crops in good as well as bad years, you instinctly have a much better sense of what to do without oil, even when the shtf... It all comes down to choosing the right perennials, produce your own compost, sow the right seeds at the right time, know when to water, and when irrigiation excercises are futeless.

There is a risk of interference around harvesting time, but if you have good neighbours and multiple crops to pick from, you should be fairly safe for the time being. Particularly if your potential enemies haven' got a clue about anything seasonal, when it comes down to roots, fruits, nuts and vegetables.
« Last Edit: January 21, 2020, 10:46:26 PM by P-maker »

be cause

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Re: Surviving the Upcoming Climatic Upheavals in the 1st World
« Reply #35 on: January 21, 2020, 11:22:37 PM »
seasonal harvesting begins .. ground elder is my favourite perennial spring veg .. b.c.
2007 + 5 = 2012 + 4 = 2016 + 3 = 2019 + 2 = 2021 
 (phew)

nanning

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Re: Surviving the Upcoming Climatic Upheavals in the 1st World
« Reply #36 on: January 26, 2020, 02:04:16 PM »
Video from https://www.theguardian.com/world/video/2020/jan/24/hundreds-of-central-american-migrants-rounded-up-by-guardsmen-at-mexico-border-video

Hundreds of Central American migrants rounded up by guardsmen at Mexico border


Source: AP and Reuters
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