Support the Arctic Sea Ice Forum and Blog

Poll

What will the CT 2015 Arctic SIA daily minimum be?

Between 4.25 and 4.5 million km2
3 (3.8%)
Between 4.0 and 4.25 million km2
0 (0%)
Between 3.75 and 4.0 million km2
2 (2.6%)
Between 3.5 and 3.75 million km2
1 (1.3%)
Between 3.25 and 3.5 million km2
12 (15.4%)
Between 3.0 and 3.25 million km2
18 (23.1%)
Between 2.75 and 3.0 million km2
17 (21.8%)
Between 2.5 and 2.75 million km2
9 (11.5%)
Between 2.25 and 2.5 million km2
5 (6.4%)
Between 2.0 and 2.25 million km2
9 (11.5%)
Between 1.75 and 2.0 million km2
1 (1.3%)
Between 1.5 and 1.75 million km2
0 (0%)
Between 1.25 and 1.5 million km2
0 (0%)
Between 1.0 and 1.25 million km2
0 (0%)
Between 0.75 and 1.0 million km2
1 (1.3%)
Between 0.5 and 0.75 million km2
0 (0%)
Between 0.25 and 0.5 million km2
0 (0%)
Between 0.0 and 0.25 million km2
0 (0%)

Total Members Voted: 76

Voting closed: July 12, 2015, 09:51:54 PM

Author Topic: Cryosphere Today 2015 Arctic SIA daily minimum: July poll  (Read 10505 times)

Neven

  • Administrator
  • First-year ice
  • Posts: 7972
    • View Profile
    • Arctic Sea Ice Blog
  • Liked: 1164
  • Likes Given: 575
Cryosphere Today 2015 Arctic SIA daily minimum: July poll
« on: July 02, 2015, 09:51:54 PM »
ATTENTION: There are two polls on the ASIF. One is for NSIDC sea ice extent monthly/September average minimum, the other is for Cryosphere Today sea ice area daily minimum. Make sure you are aware of the difference before voting. You can discuss various extent/area data sets in this dedicated thread.

-----

This CT SIA poll will run for 10 days (until July 12th). Until then you can change your vote. There will be a new poll next month.

Here's how things are currently looking based on data up to July 2nd:



These are the daily minimums for the last 7 years (in millions km2):

    2005: 4.092
    2006: 4.030
    2007: 2.919
    2008: 3.004
    2009: 3.425
    2010: 3.072
    2011: 2.905
    2012: 2.234
    2013: 3.554
    2014: 3.483

You can use the comment thread below to motivate your choice, but discuss various SIE/SIA data sets in this dedicated thread.
Il faut comparer, comparer, comparer, et cultiver notre jardin

Neven

  • Administrator
  • First-year ice
  • Posts: 7972
    • View Profile
    • Arctic Sea Ice Blog
  • Liked: 1164
  • Likes Given: 575
Re: Cryosphere Today 2015 Arctic SIA daily minimum: July poll
« Reply #1 on: July 02, 2015, 09:54:20 PM »
I voted for 'between 3.0 and 3.25 million km2', just like last month.
Il faut comparer, comparer, comparer, et cultiver notre jardin

jdallen

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 3291
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 574
  • Likes Given: 216
Re: Cryosphere Today 2015 Arctic SIA daily minimum: July poll
« Reply #2 on: July 03, 2015, 03:58:49 AM »
I voted for 'between 3.0 and 3.25 million km2', just like last month.
I'm one notch below you, Neven.  I still think we're going at least to tie or beat 2011.
This space for Rent.

AySz88

  • New ice
  • Posts: 25
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 0
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: Cryosphere Today 2015 Arctic SIA daily minimum: July poll
« Reply #3 on: July 03, 2015, 04:33:01 AM »
Newbie's perspective: Piggybacking off the 5.25 - 5.5 bin pick from the SIE poll (roughly equal to '13 and '14) means an extent pick of right around 3.5.  The SIE might be a little high (actually 5.0 + one bin) so I'll pick the bin below 3.5 as a hedge.

seaicesailor

  • Guest
Re: Cryosphere Today 2015 Arctic SIA daily minimum: July poll
« Reply #4 on: July 03, 2015, 05:56:43 AM »
3 - 3.25. Extent prospects went up, compactness went down, looks about right.

slow wing

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 823
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 155
  • Likes Given: 542
Re: Cryosphere Today 2015 Arctic SIA daily minimum: July poll
« Reply #5 on: July 03, 2015, 12:26:43 PM »
As explained in the 'extent poll', I'll stick with a prediction of close to 2012, just a little bump up of 0.1 million km2. This actually bumps it up one bin, to the 2.25-2.250 million km2 as the 2012 value is near a bin edge.

With 1-sigma uncertainties, I predict 2.3 +/- 0.7 million km2.

Tor Bejnar

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 4283
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 829
  • Likes Given: 693
Re: Cryosphere Today 2015 Arctic SIA daily minimum: July poll
« Reply #6 on: July 03, 2015, 04:46:23 PM »
It looks like I voted the same way slow wing did.  (Last month =2012 bin, this month =2012+1bin.) 

I think I'd rather feel (in October) like I was overly pessimistic during the melting season than feel like I was overly optimistic.
Arctic ice is healthy for children and other living things because "we cannot negotiate with the melting point of ice"

ChrisReynolds

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1714
    • View Profile
    • Dosbat
  • Liked: 2
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: Cryosphere Today 2015 Arctic SIA daily minimum: July poll
« Reply #7 on: July 04, 2015, 08:28:57 AM »
I've gone for 3.25 and 3.5 million km2, but would be equally happy with 3.0 and 3.25 million km2.

johnm33

  • Guest
Re: Cryosphere Today 2015 Arctic SIA daily minimum: July poll
« Reply #8 on: July 04, 2015, 11:20:43 AM »
2.5-2.75 up 4 from June
changed to 2-2.25 I think anywhere between 1 and 4 is possible so as a pessimist below the middle of that range.
« Last Edit: July 12, 2015, 11:44:31 AM by johnm33 »

Jim Pettit

  • Global Moderator
  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1175
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 40
  • Likes Given: 11
Re: Cryosphere Today 2015 Arctic SIA daily minimum: July poll
« Reply #9 on: July 04, 2015, 04:01:48 PM »
There are only about two weeks left in what's historically been the time of most rapid SIE/SIA loss; around mid-July every year, the decrease curve begins noticeably flattening toward the annual minimum. So with the past month's relatively wimpy ice decreases, I just can't see either area or extent getting even close to what the spring promised. With that in mind, then, I've raised all my prediction minimums--and even where I have them now may be too low.

Jim Hunt

  • First-year ice
  • Posts: 5494
  • Stay Home, Save Lives
    • View Profile
    • The Arctic sea ice Great White Con
  • Liked: 724
  • Likes Given: 59
Re: Cryosphere Today 2015 Arctic SIA daily minimum: July poll
« Reply #10 on: July 04, 2015, 04:38:32 PM »
There are only about two weeks left in what's historically been the time of most rapid SIE/SIA loss; around mid-July every year, the decrease curve begins noticeably flattening toward the annual minimum.

Whenever anybody says that I say take a look at "Blizzard's" latest probabilistic "prediction". Here it is:

http://GreatWhiteCon.info/2015/07/is-time-running-out-for-arctic-sea-ice/

[Edit - Updated graph to July 3rd version]
« Last Edit: July 05, 2015, 12:35:47 AM by Jim Hunt »
Reality is merely an illusion, albeit a very persistent one - Albert Einstein

Nightvid Cole

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 438
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 5
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: Cryosphere Today 2015 Arctic SIA daily minimum: July poll
« Reply #11 on: July 04, 2015, 08:52:00 PM »
1.97 M km^2, from the linear regression of CT areas against mid-June snowcover - i.e. the same technique used for NSIDC extent.

AySz88

  • New ice
  • Posts: 25
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 0
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: Cryosphere Today 2015 Arctic SIA daily minimum: July poll
« Reply #12 on: July 05, 2015, 06:18:59 AM »
There are only about two weeks left in what's historically been the time of most rapid SIE/SIA loss; around mid-July every year, the decrease curve begins noticeably flattening toward the annual minimum.

Whenever anybody says that I say take a look at "Blizzard's" latest probabilistic "prediction". Here it is:

http://GreatWhiteCon.info/2015/07/is-time-running-out-for-arctic-sea-ice/

[Edit - Updated graph to July 3rd version]

To be fair, the latter half of July in that forecast does suggest slower melt than the first half of July (following the "Forecast" line).  But yes, then the dam breaks in August as (I presume) the low-concentration Pacific-adjacent part of CAB checks out for the summer, according to the model.

Bruce Steele

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 2050
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 587
  • Likes Given: 29
Re: Cryosphere Today 2015 Arctic SIA daily minimum: July poll
« Reply #13 on: July 12, 2015, 06:38:50 AM »
3.0-3.25    Up one bin from last month.

slow wing

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 823
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 155
  • Likes Given: 542
Re: Cryosphere Today 2015 Arctic SIA daily minimum: July poll
« Reply #14 on: July 12, 2015, 11:07:24 AM »
As explained in the 'extent poll', I've bumped my prediction up one bin, to the 2.50-2.75 million km2, predicting a 'second place finish' in low SIA, behind only 2012.

With 1-sigma uncertainties, I predict 2.7 +/- 0.7 million km2.

Wipneus

  • Citizen scientist
  • Young ice
  • Posts: 4220
    • View Profile
    • Arctische Pinguin
  • Liked: 1025
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: Cryosphere Today 2015 Arctic SIA daily minimum: July poll
« Reply #15 on: July 12, 2015, 01:01:20 PM »
2.5-2.75

Anything between 2012 and 2014 is reasonably possible.

oren

  • Moderator
  • First-year ice
  • Posts: 7663
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 3002
  • Likes Given: 2955
Re: Cryosphere Today 2015 Arctic SIA daily minimum: July poll
« Reply #16 on: July 12, 2015, 10:09:25 PM »
Just when I decide to lower my prediction to below 2011 after seeing Wipneus' Arctic-basin-only area chart, the voting is closed.  :-[

oren

  • Moderator
  • First-year ice
  • Posts: 7663
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 3002
  • Likes Given: 2955
Re: Cryosphere Today 2015 Arctic SIA daily minimum: July poll
« Reply #17 on: July 12, 2015, 10:10:28 PM »
Seems I missed the deadline by a few minutes...

Neven

  • Administrator
  • First-year ice
  • Posts: 7972
    • View Profile
    • Arctic Sea Ice Blog
  • Liked: 1164
  • Likes Given: 575
Re: Cryosphere Today 2015 Arctic SIA daily minimum: July poll
« Reply #18 on: July 13, 2015, 12:07:29 PM »
That's too bad, Oren. This month had less voters than last month (84 -> 78), and the average is 2.92 million km2, up from last month's 2.82 million km2.

Even though we didn't make the 100 voter mark, I'll still put up a last poll next month. 
Il faut comparer, comparer, comparer, et cultiver notre jardin

Tensor

  • New ice
  • Posts: 73
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 0
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: Cryosphere Today 2015 Arctic SIA daily minimum: July poll
« Reply #19 on: July 13, 2015, 04:01:11 PM »
Thanks Neven!
Paid Insane Murdoch Drone

epiphyte

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 385
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 20
  • Likes Given: 19
Re: Cryosphere Today 2015 Arctic SIA daily minimum: July poll
« Reply #20 on: July 14, 2015, 07:58:37 AM »
I dropped my vote to 2.25-2.5... Which turns out to be one bin below Wipneus... not nearly as radical as I thought :)

12Patrick

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 140
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 0
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: Cryosphere Today 2015 Arctic SIA daily minimum: July poll
« Reply #21 on: July 22, 2015, 07:34:38 PM »
Seems as though the cryosphere today has stopped updating since the 18th of this month... Sent email off asking if there is problem with the site.. I'll keep you informed if I hear anything back...