Cryosphere Today 2015 Arctic SIA daily minimum: July poll

[Neven]

ATTENTION: There are two polls on the ASIF. One is for NSIDC sea ice extent monthly/September average minimum, the other is for Cryosphere Today sea ice area daily minimum. Make sure you are aware of the difference before voting. You can discuss various extent/area data sets in this dedicated thread.

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This CT SIA poll will run for 10 days (until July 12th). Until then you can change your vote. There will be a new poll next month.

Here's how things are currently looking based on data up to July 2nd:



These are the daily minimums for the last 7 years (in millions km2):

    2005: 4.092
    2006: 4.030
    2007: 2.919
    2008: 3.004
    2009: 3.425
    2010: 3.072
    2011: 2.905
    2012: 2.234
    2013: 3.554
    2014: 3.483

You can use the comment thread below to motivate your choice, but discuss various SIE/SIA data sets in this dedicated thread.

[Neven]

I voted for 'between 3.0 and 3.25 million km2', just like last month.

[jdallen]

I voted for 'between 3.0 and 3.25 million km2', just like last month.

I'm one notch below you, Neven.  I still think we're going at least to tie or beat 2011.

[AySz88]

Newbie's perspective: Piggybacking off the 5.25 - 5.5 bin pick from the SIE poll (roughly equal to '13 and '14) means an extent pick of right around 3.5.  The SIE might be a little high (actually 5.0 + one bin) so I'll pick the bin below 3.5 as a hedge.

[seaicesailor]

3 - 3.25. Extent prospects went up, compactness went down, looks about right.

[slow wing]

As explained in the 'extent poll', I'll stick with a prediction of close to 2012, just a little bump up of 0.1 million km2. This actually bumps it up one bin, to the 2.25-2.250 million km2 as the 2012 value is near a bin edge.

With 1-sigma uncertainties, I predict 2.3 +/- 0.7 million km2.

[Tor Bejnar]

It looks like I voted the same way slow wing did.  (Last month =2012 bin, this month =2012+1bin.) 

I think I'd rather feel (in October) like I was overly pessimistic during the melting season than feel like I was overly optimistic.

[ChrisReynolds]

I've gone for 3.25 and 3.5 million km2, but would be equally happy with 3.0 and 3.25 million km2.

[johnm33]

2.5-2.75 up 4 from June
changed to 2-2.25 I think anywhere between 1 and 4 is possible so as a pessimist below the middle of that range.

[Jim Pettit]

There are only about two weeks left in what's historically been the time of most rapid SIE/SIA loss; around mid-July every year, the decrease curve begins noticeably flattening toward the annual minimum. So with the past month's relatively wimpy ice decreases, I just can't see either area or extent getting even close to what the spring promised. With that in mind, then, I've raised all my prediction minimums--and even where I have them now may be too low.

[Jim Hunt]

There are only about two weeks left in what's historically been the time of most rapid SIE/SIA loss; around mid-July every year, the decrease curve begins noticeably flattening toward the annual minimum.

Whenever anybody says that I say take a look at "Blizzard's" latest probabilistic "prediction". Here it is:

http://GreatWhiteCon.info/2015/07/is-time-running-out-for-arctic-sea-ice/

[Edit - Updated graph to July 3rd version]

[Nightvid Cole]

1.97 M km^2, from the linear regression of CT areas against mid-June snowcover - i.e. the same technique used for NSIDC extent.

[AySz88]

There are only about two weeks left in what's historically been the time of most rapid SIE/SIA loss; around mid-July every year, the decrease curve begins noticeably flattening toward the annual minimum.

Whenever anybody says that I say take a look at "Blizzard's" latest probabilistic "prediction". Here it is:

http://GreatWhiteCon.info/2015/07/is-time-running-out-for-arctic-sea-ice/

[Edit - Updated graph to July 3rd version]

To be fair, the latter half of July in that forecast does suggest slower melt than the first half of July (following the "Forecast" line).  But yes, then the dam breaks in August as (I presume) the low-concentration Pacific-adjacent part of CAB checks out for the summer, according to the model.

[Bruce Steele]

3.0-3.25    Up one bin from last month.

[slow wing]

As explained in the 'extent poll', I've bumped my prediction up one bin, to the 2.50-2.75 million km2, predicting a 'second place finish' in low SIA, behind only 2012.

With 1-sigma uncertainties, I predict 2.7 +/- 0.7 million km2.

[Wipneus]

2.5-2.75

Anything between 2012 and 2014 is reasonably possible.

[oren]

Just when I decide to lower my prediction to below 2011 after seeing Wipneus' Arctic-basin-only area chart, the voting is closed. 

[oren]

Seems I missed the deadline by a few minutes...

[Neven]

That's too bad, Oren. This month had less voters than last month (84 -> 78), and the average is 2.92 million km2, up from last month's 2.82 million km2.

Even though we didn't make the 100 voter mark, I'll still put up a last poll next month. 

[Tensor]

Thanks Neven!

[epiphyte]

I dropped my vote to 2.25-2.5... Which turns out to be one bin below Wipneus... not nearly as radical as I thought

[12Patrick]

Seems as though the cryosphere today has stopped updating since the 18th of this month... Sent email off asking if there is problem with the site.. I'll keep you informed if I hear anything back...