Happy New Year 2024 (and sorry for the forum being offline some hours) /DM
I think, weatherdude, you should stop bullshitting around about things that you do not understand. Climate models (CMIP5) with updated forcings (yes, unheard of, but somehow people failed to predict volcanic eruptions...) are fully in line with the observations (and do _NOT_ overpredict temperature rise), and they do have ECS between 2.1 and 4.5K. http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2012GL051607/full
Apart from that:Combining this paper:http://www.nature.com/ngeo/journal/v7/n9/abs/ngeo2228.html
with this one:http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2015GL064888/abstract
I suppose that one can call your unfunded blunder about low climate sensitivity in the 1.5 region pretty optimistic, given that the transient response is already above 1.8K. Maybe some divine intervention lowers the climate sensitivity below the transient response?