Author Topic: Cryosphere Today 2015 Arctic SIA daily minimum: August poll (Read 19940 times)

Neven · « **on:** August 01, 2015, 11:29:31 AM »

ATTENTION: There are two polls on the ASIF. One is for NSIDC sea ice extent monthly/September average minimum, the other is for Cryosphere Today sea ice area daily minimum. Make sure you are aware of the difference before voting. You can discuss various extent/area data sets in this dedicated thread.

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This CT SIA poll will run for 12 days (until August 13th). Until then you can change your vote. This is this year's last poll.

Here's how things are currently looking based on data up to July 31st:

These are the daily minimums for the last 7 years (in millions km2):

2005: 4.092
2006: 4.030
2007: 2.919
2008: 3.004
2009: 3.425
2010: 3.072
2011: 2.905
2012: 2.234
2013: 3.554
2014: 3.483

You can use the comment thread below to motivate your choice, but discuss various SIE/SIA data sets in this dedicated thread.

Neven · « **Reply #1 on:** August 01, 2015, 11:41:32 AM »

I went down one bin compared to last my month: between 2.75 and 3.0 million km2. It's slightly aggressive maybe, so I might change my vote in 10 days or so if July behaviour isn't extended into August.

My votes for all the polls this year:
June: Between 3.0 and 3.25 million km2
July: Between 3.0 and 3.25 million km2
August: Between 2.75 and 3.0 million km2

This means that I think 2015 will end up 2nd to 4th.

Subjectivist · « **Reply #2 on:** August 01, 2015, 12:48:11 PM »

I went up 1.5 million km^2 from my vote in March. I look at the pattern for the last month now and it feels a lot like 2007/2011 will be repeated to me.

DavidR · « **Reply #3 on:** August 01, 2015, 03:30:05 PM »

I am not voting until see the July figures from NOAA. If NOAA indicates high SST and Air temperatures in July I may stay with my previous position but otherwise I may move up a notch or two.

I would hate to see these polls removed because of a lack of votes. The last thing I would like to see here is the blog inundated with lots of ridiculous posts by contrarians. 60 votes from interested people are worth a whole lot more than 2000 from ignoramuses. One objective of contrarians is simply to get people to waste their time debating with fools. Lets just keep the fools out of here.

Tor Bejnar · « **Reply #4 on:** August 01, 2015, 04:34:16 PM »

I've moved up 1 bin (again), now 2 bins above the 2012 minimum (e.g. 2.5-2.75).

AySz88 · « **Reply #5 on:** August 01, 2015, 08:28:43 PM »

Same 3.25-3.5 bin as June and July (until more data comes in). [update edit] 3.6ish now, and anomaly persistence from here would suggest around 3.0ish. Mostly a coin flip, but going with the 2.75-3.00 guess - the Beaufort "arm" looks so fragile.

FYI Neven, broken formatting in the very first "dedicated thread" link (in the "ATTENTION" paragraph), missing the "url=". Also the other link causes browsers to give a security error, because the https cert is for "ssl15.ovh.net" not "arctic-sea-ice.net".

cesium62 · « **Reply #6 on:** August 01, 2015, 08:48:36 PM »

Quote from: DavidR on August 01, 2015, 03:30:05 PM

Lets just keep the fools out of here.

Too late. And I'm so far successfully avoiding pissing off Neven enough to kick me out.

seaicesailor · « **Reply #7 on:** August 01, 2015, 09:37:30 PM »

3 - 3.25 Same as previous time, ready to go down one bin, but not sure if most of the area in CAA will open up. Tommys gap may kick back a few km2 too.

@DavidR I had to look for the meaning of contrarian in the dictionary:

"a person who opposes or rejects popular opinion"

A bit radical. I oppose it!

I just settle for a few loon-free days for the forum. (So I must leave for a few days

)

Neven · « **Reply #8 on:** August 01, 2015, 09:38:12 PM »

Quote from: AySz88 on August 01, 2015, 08:28:43 PM

Same 3.25-3.5 bin as June and July (until more data comes in).

FYI Neven, broken formatting in the very first "dedicated thread" link (in the "ATTENTION" paragraph), missing the "url=". Also the other link causes browsers to give a security error, because the https cert is for "ssl15.ovh.net" not "arctic-sea-ice.net".

Thanks, AySz88! I've fixed the link and removed the s from https. Should work now.

Neven · « **Reply #9 on:** August 01, 2015, 09:47:54 PM »

Quote from: cesium62 on August 01, 2015, 08:48:36 PM

Too late. And I'm so far successfully avoiding pissing off Neven enough to kick me out.

Keep voting, and I'll let you stay.

werther · « **Reply #10 on:** August 01, 2015, 11:09:22 PM »

Well, if SIE has taken my guess, Area may as well take my vote. Based on experience, I vote for 60% down on SIE, 2,55 Mkm2-2.7 Mkm2.

cats · « **Reply #11 on:** August 02, 2015, 02:10:19 AM »

Sticking with my number from last time - 3.0-3.25 at least for now.

kingbum · « **Reply #12 on:** August 02, 2015, 06:44:32 PM »

Voted 3.25-3.0 again I'm expecting an earlier refreeze this year especially in the North Atlantic side

Richard Rathbone · « **Reply #13 on:** August 04, 2015, 12:05:06 PM »

3-3.25

PIOMAS anomaly looks closest to 2007 but I'm up a bin because I'd expect similar volume to be spread out over greater area in 2015.

slow wing · « **Reply #14 on:** August 04, 2015, 01:03:31 PM »

My previous guesstimates have been:
in June poll: 2.2 +/- 0.8 million km^2
in July poll: 2.7 +/- 0.7 million km^2
Each with 1-sigma uncertainties.

My approach for this month's poll is given in my post on the 'extent poll' thread: http://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,1346.msg59365.html#msg59365

There I predict a September extent competing with 2012 as the lowest on record.

So, similarly. my guesstimate now is 2.4 +/- 0.5 million km^2.

So I am voting in the bin '2.25-2.50'.

DavidR · « **Reply #15 on:** August 05, 2015, 10:14:57 AM »

2.5 - 2.75 M : a 'recent average' decline from Aug 1st would drop into the middle of the bucket above. However I am assuming, based on very high July temperature figures particularly above 80N and the presence of an El Nino, that we will have a stronger than average melt period from now on and drop by an additional 100K into the lower bucket.

VaughnAn · « **Reply #16 on:** August 07, 2015, 07:37:44 AM »

Okay Neven, you now have 100 votes for area. I finally managed to get my password reset; thanks to those who explained the process. It took half a day to get a password reset email but it did finally come through.

I think September area will be close to 2.75M km^2 so I voted for 2.5 to 2.75. I think the water temperature in the Arctic and the developing El Nino will keep the melt going longer than normal into the later part of September hence the lower number.

oren · « **Reply #17 on:** August 07, 2015, 02:25:21 PM »

To me it's kinda obvious looking at the charts that we're gonna end up either in the 2.75-3.0 or in the 3.0-3.25, this is more or less a coin toss. Between those two, higher PIOMAS volume in the CAB pushes me to the upper bin, while the situation in the Beaufort with all that MYI going poof pushes me to the lower bin. Coin tossed. 2.75-3.0

Gonzo · « **Reply #18 on:** August 07, 2015, 02:45:06 PM »

I think the whole thing could break into 2 or 3 large areas, with a lot of debris in between. It will end up looking like a lot of area, but the break-up could be unusual, so area is going to be deceptive as to the reality.

iceman · « **Reply #19 on:** August 09, 2015, 01:24:18 PM »

Quote from: Richard Rathbone on August 04, 2015, 12:05:06 PM

3-3.25

PIOMAS anomaly looks closest to 2007 but I'm up a bin because I'd expect similar volume to be spread out over greater area in 2015.

I think I see your reasoning, as 2007 had considerable compaction near the minimum iirc. Even so, to me the volume vs. area comparison tilts the other way, so I'll go for 2.75-3.0.
Both Beaufort and Canadian Archipelago look quite unpredictable at this point.
My guess is the area low will occur later in the season than usual.

Richard Rathbone · « **Reply #20 on:** August 09, 2015, 04:51:36 PM »

Quote from: iceman on August 09, 2015, 01:24:18 PM

Quote from: Richard Rathbone on August 04, 2015, 12:05:06 PM
3-3.25

PIOMAS anomaly looks closest to 2007 but I'm up a bin because I'd expect similar volume to be spread out over greater area in 2015.

I think I see your reasoning, as 2007 had considerable compaction near the minimum iirc. Even so, to me the volume vs. area comparison tilts the other way, so I'll go for 2.75-3.0.
Both Beaufort and Canadian Archipelago look quite unpredictable at this point.
My guess is the area low will occur later in the season than usual.

Its more I'm thinking that 2010 wiped a lot of thick stuff, so since that part of the volume distribution isn't there now, ice will be more spread out (plus I looked at the the way both area and volume curves have developed so far in 2015 and it matches with this reasoning)

epiphyte · « **Reply #21 on:** August 10, 2015, 05:04:33 PM »

My estimate is unchanged from July at 2.25-2.5. I seem to be a little closer to the middle of the pack now though!

Nightvid Cole · « **Reply #22 on:** August 10, 2015, 07:29:22 PM »

I moved up one bin, to 2.0-2.25, because on the one hand the high-concentration region is not as small as in 2012, but on the other hand, the whole pack looks thinner, even near the CAA, based on MODIS images, plus CAB compactness tracked that of 2012 for much of the summer.

pauldry600 · « **Reply #23 on:** August 11, 2015, 02:36:16 PM »

Id go for 3.124

Paddy · « **Reply #24 on:** August 12, 2015, 08:48:02 AM »

A late vote for something in the vicinity of 2011's area, so 2.75 -> 3 million sq km. On current trends, and with the ice as spread out and thus vulnerable to melting as it is, I think it's going that way.

epiphyte · « **Reply #25 on:** August 12, 2015, 05:28:50 PM »

After looking at EOSDIS + nullschool today I don't see any help for the ice... so I dropped one bin - into record territory. 2.0-2.25

wanderer · « **Reply #26 on:** August 12, 2015, 05:35:41 PM »

3.58 sq km now - i think we will easily end up 2nd.

slow wing · « **Reply #27 on:** August 13, 2015, 05:11:30 AM »

Quote from: slow wing on August 04, 2015, 01:03:31 PM

My previous guesstimates have been:
in June poll: 2.2 +/- 0.8 million km^2
in July poll: 2.7 +/- 0.7 million km^2
Each with 1-sigma uncertainties.

My approach for this month's poll is given in my post on the 'extent poll' thread: http://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,1346.msg59365.html#msg59365

There I predict a September extent competing with 2012 as the lowest on record.

So, similarly. my guesstimate now is 2.4 +/- 0.5 million km^2.

So I am voting in the bin '2.25-2.50'.

I bumped up one bin in the extent poll because the ice pack is holding together well on the Atlantic and Siberian sides. That will also keep the compactness high, so I'm bumping up two bins here:

So my guesstimate now is 2.8 +/- 0.5 million km^2
and I am voting in the bin '2.75-3.00'.

Gonzo · « **Reply #28 on:** August 13, 2015, 05:03:40 PM »

I missed this thread because 'Cryosphere' refers to the whole planet, so my mind ignored it, but I've been saying on other threads that the Arctic minimum recorded day for the year will be about the same as 2012.
It is interesting to come to this thread and see so many low estimates?

Neven · « **Reply #29 on:** August 13, 2015, 05:54:32 PM »

That's because minimum area is lower than minimum extent. Check the opening post to see the minima for previous years to get a feel for where this minimum could end up.

Gonzo · « **Reply #30 on:** August 13, 2015, 08:10:42 PM »

Yes, I missed the vote because of the name, but I'm with the "Between 2.0 and 2.25 million km2" crowd.

seaicesailor · « **Reply #31 on:** August 13, 2015, 10:05:29 PM »

The poll closed not sure when

, but "for the record"

I wanted to put my estimate down to 2.75 - 3.00.
Area is already very low, even after passing a "slowdown"

Really interesting days since the poll opened.

Bruce Steele · « **Reply #32 on:** September 20, 2015, 09:32:21 PM »

Seaicesailor, It looks like missing your last vote left you in the correct bin.

News:

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What will the CT 2015 Arctic SIA daily minimum be?

Author Topic: Cryosphere Today 2015 Arctic SIA daily minimum: August poll (Read 19940 times)

seaicesailor

seaicesailor