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kassy

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Re: Glaciers worldwide decline faster than ever
« Reply #100 on: June 30, 2021, 09:46:57 AM »
Mountaintop glacier ice disappearing in tropics around the world

Mountaintop glacier ice in the tropics of all four hemispheres covers significantly less area -- in one case as much as 93% less -- than it did just 50 years ago, a new study has found.

The study, published online recently in the journal Global and Planetary Change, found that a glacier near Puncak Jaya, in Papua New Guinea, lost about 93% of its ice over a 38-year period from 1980 to 2018. Between 1986 and 2017 the area covered by glaciers on top of Kilimanjaro in Africa decreased by nearly 71%.

The study is the first to combine NASA satellite imagery with data from ice cores drilled during field expeditions on tropical glaciers around the world. That combination shows that climate change is causing these glaciers, which have long been sources of water for nearby communities, to disappear and indicates that those glaciers have lost ice more quickly in recent years.

...

The study compared changes in the area covered by glaciers in four regions: Kilimanjaro in Tanzania, the Andes in Peru and Bolivia, the Tibetan Plateau and the Himalayas of Central and South Asia, and ice fields in Papua, New Guinea, Indonesia. Thompson has led expeditions to all these glaciers and recovered ice cores from each.

...

One image taken in 2019 of the top of Huascarán, the highest tropical mountain in the world, shows ice retreating upslope and exposing the rock beneath. Analyses performed by researchers at the University of Colorado showed that the area of the glacier ice on top of that mountain decreased by nearly 19% from 1970 to 2003. In 2020, the surface area of the Quelccaya Ice Cap, the second-largest glaciated area in the tropics, had decreased by 46% from 1976, the year Thompson drilled the first ice core from its summit.

...

Glaciers in the tropics respond more quickly to climate change and as they exist in the warmest areas of the world, they can survive only at very high altitudes where the climate is colder. Before Earth's atmosphere warmed, the precipitation there fell as snow. Now, much of it falls as rain that causes the existing ice to melt even faster.

"You're not sustaining the ice at the highest elevations anymore," said co-author Christopher Shuman, associate research professor at the University of Maryland-Baltimore County and associate research scientist at NASA Goddard Space Flight Center in Maryland. "It's this interplay between the warm air lower down melting away the margins of the ice fields while the very highest elevations are still cold enough to get a certain amount of snowfall, but not enough to sustain the ice cap to the dimensions it once was."

...

In Papua New Guinea, the ice has cultural significance for many of the indigenous people who live near the ice fields, as they consider the ice to be the head of their god. Thompson believes the ice fields there will disappear entirely within two or three years.

...

https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2021/06/210628170518.htm
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kassy

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Re: Glaciers worldwide decline faster than ever
« Reply #101 on: July 30, 2021, 09:27:38 PM »
https://www.outsideonline.com/culture/essays-culture/taku-glacier-climate-change-essay/

Taku glacier. Similar to the story in #75 bit more on the possible progress (although it boils down to we don´t know yet).
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kassy

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Re: Glaciers worldwide decline faster than ever
« Reply #102 on: September 13, 2021, 02:01:22 PM »
Scientists scramble to harvest ice cores as glaciers melt

Sept 13 (Reuters) - Scientists are racing to collect ice cores – along with long-frozen records they hold of climate cycles – as global warming melts glaciers and ice sheets. Some say they are running out of time. And, in some cases, it’s already too late.

Late last year, German-born chemist Margit Schwikowski and a team of international scientists attempted to gather ice cores from the Grand Combin glacier, high on the Swiss-Italian border, for a United Nations-backed climate monitoring effort.

In 2018, they had scouted the site by helicopter and drilled a shallow test core. The core was in good shape, said Schwikowski: It had well-preserved atmospheric gases and chemical evidence of past climates, and ground-penetrating radar showed a deep glacier. Not all glaciers in the Alps preserve both summer and winter snowfall; if all went as planned, these cores would have been the oldest to date that did, she said.

But in the two years it took for the scientists to return with a full drilling set-up, some of the information that had been trapped in the ice had vanished. Freeze-thaw cycles had created icy layers and meltwater pools throughout the glacier, what another team member described as a water-laden sponge, rendering the core useless for basic climate science.

The sudden deterioration “tells us exactly how sensitive these glaciers are," said Schwikowski, head of the analytical chemistry group at the Paul Scherrer Institute in Villigen, Switzerland. "We were just two years too late."

...

The pace at which glaciers are losing mass is also increasing. A study published in April in the science journal Nature found glaciers lost 227 gigatons of ice annually from 2000 to 2004, but that increased to an average of 298 gigatons a year after 2015.

...

If a glacier is melting and no longer accumulating snow, it means it also isn’t capturing atmospheric gases from today for scientists to study in the future.

...

Another member of the Grand Combin expedition, Italian climate scientist Carlo Barbante, said the speed at which the ice on the Alpine massif had melted in the last few years was “much higher than it was before.” Finding the wet cores was a "complete shock," he said.

As a result, Barbante and other scientists - including Schwikowski - sped up plans to extract a core from the Colle Gnifetti glacier on the summit of the Alps’ Monte Rosa, a few hundred meters higher than Grand Combin. In June, several months earlier than originally scheduled, they launched. The two cores they drilled were of good quality, Barbante said.

Barbante said he is also hoping to organize a trip to Mount Kilimanjaro, Africa’s highest mountain and the only possible ice core site left on the continent, next year or the year after.

and more:
https://www.reuters.com/lifestyle/science/scientists-scramble-harvest-ice-cores-glaciers-melt-2021-09-13/?rpc=401&
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gerontocrat

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Re: Glaciers worldwide decline faster than ever
« Reply #103 on: January 14, 2022, 01:31:40 PM »
Paywalled article on retreat of marine-teminating glaciers- Summary only available

https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2021GL096501
Retreat of Northern Hemisphere marine-terminating glaciers, 2000-2020
Quote
Abstract
We mapped the terminus position for every marine-terminating glacier in the Northern Hemisphere for 2000, 2010 and 2020, including the Greenland Ice Sheet, to provide the first complete measure of their variability. In total, these 1704 glaciers lost an average of 389.7 ± 1.6 km2 a-1 [total 7527 ± 31 km2] from 2000 to 2020 with 123 glaciers becoming no longer marine-terminating over this period. Overall, 85.3% of glaciers retreated, 2.5% advanced, and the remaining 12.3% did not change outside of uncertainty limits. Outlet glaciers of the Greenland Ice Sheet are responsible for 61.9% of total area loss, although their rate of retreat was 34% less in 2010-2020 than 2000-2010. Glaciers with the largest area loss terminate in ice shelves or ice tongues, are surge-type, have an unstable basal geometry, or have an unusually wide calving margin.

Plain Language Summary
North of the equator, 1704 glaciers touched the ocean in 2000. Here, we present the first analysis to document the frontal position of every one of these glaciers in 2000, 2010 and 2020. We found that 85.3% retreated and are now reduced in area. Only 2.5% of glaciers advanced or increased in area. The remaining 12.3% did not change within uncertainty limits. Total area losses were 389.7 ± 1.6 km2 per year [total 7527 ± 31 km2] over the 20-year period. Glaciers flowing from the Greenland Ice Sheet accounted for over 60% of total area losses. We found wide variations in the response of glaciers to similar changes in air and ocean temperature and sea ice concentrations, showing that environmental conditions alone cannot explain why some glaciers retreated more than others. Instead, unique glacier characteristics are the most important factor in controlling the variability of terminus retreat. Glaciers with floating ice at their front (ice shelves or ice tongues), those that undergo periodic changes in their flow velocity (surges), those which have a weak connection to their beds, and glaciers that are unusually wide, experienced the largest area loss from 2000 to 2020.
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oren

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Re: Glaciers worldwide decline faster than ever
« Reply #104 on: February 05, 2022, 01:35:30 AM »
Here's an interesting table from the supplement.

gerontocrat

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Re: Glaciers worldwide decline faster than ever
« Reply #105 on: February 07, 2022, 08:12:12 PM »
It seems the reservoir of freshwater locked up in glaciers is less than conventional wisdom estimates

https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2022/02/220207112647.htm
Globe’s glaciers have less ice than previously thought
Findings on glacier speed and depth revise outlook for freshwater availability and sea level rise

Date:
February 7, 2022
Source:
Dartmouth College
Summary:
Research revises estimates of glacial ice volume, suggesting that there is less ice in the world's glaciers than previously thought. The findings have implications on freshwater and global sea level rise.

Quote
The first atlas to measure the movement and thickness of the world's glaciers gives a clearer, but mixed picture of the globe's ice-bound freshwater resources, according to researchers from the Institute of Environmental Geosciences (IGE) and Dartmouth College.

The worldwide survey, published in Nature Geoscience, measures the velocity and depth of more than 250,000 mountain glaciers. The research revises earlier estimates of glacial ice volume, now suggesting that there is 20% less ice available for sea level rise in the world's glaciers than previously thought.

The results have implications on the availability of water for drinking, power generation, agriculture and other uses worldwide. The findings also change projections for climate-driven sea level rise expected to affect populations around the globe.

"Finding how much ice is stored in glaciers is a key step to anticipate the effects of climate change on society," said Romain Millan, a postdoctoral scholar at IGE and lead author of the study. "With this information, we will be closer to knowing the size of the biggest glacial water reservoirs and also to consider how to respond to a world with less glaciers."

"The finding of less ice is important and will have implications for millions of people around the world," said Mathieu Morlighem, the Evans Family Professor of Earth Sciences at Dartmouth and co-author of the study. "Even with this research, however, we still don't have a perfect picture of how much water is really locked away in these glaciers"

The new atlas covers 98% of the world's glaciers. According to the study, many of these glaciers are shallower than estimated in prior research. Double counting of glaciers along the peripheries of Greenland and Antarctica also clouded previous data sets.

The study found less ice in some regions and more ice in others, with the overall result that there is less glacial ice worldwide than previously thought.

The research found that there is nearly a quarter less glacial ice in South America's tropical Andes mountains. The finding means that there is up to 23% less freshwater stored in an area from which millions of people depend during their everyday lives. The reduction of this amount of freshwater is the equivalent of the complete drying of Mono Lake, California's third largest lake.

On the contrary, Asia's Himalayan mountains were found to have over one-third more ice than previous estimates. The result suggests that about 37% more water resources could be available in the region, although the continent's glaciers are melting quickly.

"The overall trend of warming and mass loss remains unchanged. This study provides the necessary picture for models to offer more reliable projections of how much time these glaciers have left," said Morlighem.

The melting of glaciers due to climate change is one of the main causes of rising sea levels. It is currently estimated that glaciers contribute 25-30% to overall sea level rise, threatening about 10% of the world's population living lower than 30 feet above sea level.

The reduction by 20% of glacial ice available for sea level rise lessens the potential for glacial contribution to sea level by 3 inches, revising it downward from 13 inches to just over 10 inches. This projection includes contributions from all the world's glaciers except the two large ice sheets of Greenland and Antarctica, which have a much larger potential contribution to sea level rise.

"Comparing global differences with previous estimates is just one side of the picture," said Millan. "If you start looking locally, then the changes are even larger. To correctly project the future evolution of glaciers, capturing fine details is much more important than just the total volume."

According to the study, depth measurements previously existed for only about 1% of the world's glaciers, with most of those glaciers only being partially studied.

The glacial ice estimates that did exist prior to the new study were almost entirely uncertain, according to the research team. The uncertainty is due, in part, to the lack of ice flow measurements showing the location of thick and thin ice, all of which is gathered through indirect techniques.

To create the massive ice flow database, the research team studied more than 800,000 pairs of satellite images of glaciers, including large ice caps, narrow alpine glaciers, slow valley glaciers and fast tidewater glaciers. The high-resolution images were acquired between 2017-18 by NASA's Landsat-8 and the European Space Agency's Sentinel-1 and Sentinel-2 satellites. The data was processed using more than 1 million hours of computation at IGE.

"We generally think about glaciers as solid ice that may melt in the summer, but ice actually flows like thick syrup under its own weight," said Morlighem. "The ice flows from high altitude to lower elevations where it eventually turns to water. Using satellite imagery, we are able to track the motion of these glaciers from space at the global scale and, from there, deduce the amount of ice all around the world."

The resulting first global map of flow velocities covers most of the world's terrestrial glaciers, including regions where no previous mapping existed, such as the southern cordilleras of South America, sub-Antarctic islands, and New Zealand.

Although the new atlas marks a major improvement in glacier ice and water potential estimates, the thickness distribution of the world's glaciers is still subject to large gaps of information.

"Our estimations are closer, but still uncertain, particularly in regions where many people rely on glaciers," said Millan. "Collecting and sharing measurements is complicated, because glaciers are spread throughout so many countries with different research priorities."

According to the team, without direct field measurements, the estimate of glacier freshwater resources will remain uncertain.

The study calls for a re-evaluation of the evolution of the world's glaciers in numerical models as well as direct observations of ice thicknesses in the tropical Andes and the Himalayas, which are major water towers but that remain poorly documented.
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grixm

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Re: Glaciers worldwide decline faster than ever
« Reply #106 on: February 10, 2022, 09:09:31 AM »
https://www-nrk-no.translate.goog/norge/20-isbreer-i-norge-er-na-borte-1.15846004?_x_tr_sl=no&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en-US&_x_tr_pto=wapp


Quote
20 glaciers in Norway are now gone

This is the first time NVE registers that glaciers in Norway have disappeared.

Our country is 20 glaciers poorer since the previous survey, which was between 1999 and 2006, it appears in the new report from NVE .

At the same time as the 20 glaciers have disappeared, glaciers in Norway have decreased by a total of 14 percent since the previous survey.

The ice masses that have melted away since then have a size of 364 square kilometers in total, an area as large as Lake Mjøsa or about 50,000 football fields.

In its latest survey, NVE has discovered more smaller glaciers than before. The satellite images also allow them to measure the glaciers better and the researchers have a more accurate overview of glacier melting in Norway.

- The survey shows that glacier melting has accelerated since 2000, says glacier researcher Liss Marie Andreassen in NVE to NRK.

kassy

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Re: Glaciers worldwide decline faster than ever
« Reply #107 on: March 31, 2022, 09:32:46 AM »
Shrinking glaciers are shallower than we thought, putting freshwater supplies at risk

In La Paz, Bolivia, a city with a population of roughly two million, as much as 27 per cent of the water supply comes from glacial melt. It’s one of many communities around the world that rely on seasonal meltwater to feed its rivers and provide fresh water for drinking and crop irrigation. While it’s normal for some ice to melt, rising temperatures caused by climate change are precipitating significant glacial retreat. To make matters worse, a new study suggests that we’ve been overestimating how much water our glaciers hold.

Until now, calculating the amount of ice contained in the world’s glaciers has required a lot of guesswork – the logistical and political challenges of gaining access to these remote areas has made monitoring them difficult. In all, in situ measurements of ice thickness exist for only around two per cent of the world’s glaciers, and even this research is often incomplete.

A key piece of missing information, explains Romain Millan, a geophysicist at the Institute of Environmental Geosciences in Grenoble, France, and the study’s lead author, is data on the ice velocity of glaciers worldwide. ‘We usually think of glaciers as non-moving ice bodies,’ says Millan, ‘but in fact, glaciers naturally move under their own weight.’ As more ice accumulates above, the ice below it melts and deforms, causing it to slowly flow downhill ‘a bit like thick syrup’. How rapidly a glacier moves depends on the thickness of its ice. Turning that around, data on how rapidly a glacier moves can help scientists to better estimate its volume.

By analysing more than 800,000 high-resolution satellite images taken between 2017 and 2018, the researchers were able to track the flow of ice in each location, allowing them to make much more accurate calculations than had previously been possible. ‘We knew that this would make a big difference,’ says Millan, explaining that the results showed a lot of regional variation but that, overall, the study revealed many glaciers are shallower than anticipated.

Two notable differences in freshwater availability are in the Himalaya, where there is 37 per cent more ice than was thought, and in the tropical Andes of South America, where there is 27 per cent less ice than had previously been estimated – a potential cause for concern for the mountain communities nearby. Millan stresses that there’s still a lot of uncertainty in these regions, where measurements remain sparse but the local people are often highly dependent on freshwater resources. However, the data taken from the satellite images, which is publicly available, has already sparked new projects that he hopes will lead to ever more accurate results. ‘Getting this data set was a huge piece of work that has now unlocked a lot of new possibilities for research,’ he says.

http://geographical.co.uk/places/wetlands/item/4307-glaciers-contain-less-ice
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vox_mundi

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Re: Glaciers worldwide decline faster than ever
« Reply #108 on: April 08, 2022, 02:03:16 PM »
Northern Glaciers are Retreating from the Water
https://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/images/149670/northern-glaciers-are-retreating-from-the-water



... Using images from Landsat and Terra satellites, the researchers manually outlined the position of each glacier’s front in 2000, 2010, and 2020. They found that 85 percent of the glaciers had retreated during these two decades, accounting for a total loss of about 7,500 square kilometers (2,900 square miles) of ice.

Most of the losses (62 percent) come from outlet glaciers along the periphery of Greenland’s enormous ice sheet. Notice the especially large red dot in northeast Greenland. This is Zachariae Isstrøm, which lost 1,453 square kilometers (561 square miles) of ice between 2000-2020.

“The changes at Zachariae Isstrøm in Greenland are incredible,” Kochtitzky said. “It lost 73 square kilometers per year. That is nearly six times more than the glacier with the second-most area loss.” ...

Retreat of Northern Hemisphere Marine-Terminating Glaciers, 2000–2020
https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2021GL096501
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kassy

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Re: Glaciers worldwide decline faster than ever
« Reply #109 on: April 13, 2022, 01:42:12 PM »
As Mexico's last glaciers melt, communities that depend on mountain springs scramble to find solutions


Just a few decades ago, as many as 14 different glaciers covered the top of Mexico’s tallest mountain — Citlaltépetl or Orizaba peak — in a permanent white shield. But not anymore.

The areas where the glaciers used to reach down are still visible. There’s a clear delineation on the mountainside where the shrub tundra vegetation gives way to a landscape of gray rocks that once laid beneath packs of snow and ice.

...

Today, there’s only one glacier left in this area. It’s called Jamapa. And scientists say that as much as 60% of it has melted. Until recently, experts estimated that it had maybe just 40 years left. But now, they say it will disappear within the decade.

It's not just a sad, symbolic mark of the march of time and climate change. It also has practical implications. Rivers and streams there are fed by glacial runoff, and that fresh water is decreasing.

“The possible disappearance in the next 10-15 years puts the population that depends on this water in serious danger,” said Carlos Welsh, the coordinator of the Center of Earth Sciences at the University of Veracruz. “Not just because of the loss of the glacial runoff, but for the rising temperature and the decrease in precipitation that’s happening in the region.”

...

“This river always had water, although it decreased [at] certain times of the year,” he said. “Now, it’s a dried river. It only has water during the rainy season.”

That’s a problem for the villages and towns on the southern side of the volcano that get much of their water from springs up the mountain. There isn't always enough to go around.

Jesus Gonzalez, a young farmer who lives in the village of Chichipica, stood beside an open water trough where his family accesses spring water from further up the mountain.
During the dry months, they’re only allotted around 60-70 gallons of water every eight days.

“Yeah, I’m concerned about what may happen over time,” he said. “But we’re doing our best to conserve the little water we have.”

It’s the same story 20 minutes south, in the town of Atzitzintla. In the local Indigenous language Náhuatl, the name means “the place of the little rivers.” But that’s not the case anymore.

Today, residents only have water once or twice a week for a couple of hours at a time. During that time, they have to fill up their water tanks. And if that’s not enough, they purchase water trucked in from a nearby town — something they will likely have to rely more on in the future.

Climatologists say glaciers across the planet are melting much faster than expected, impacting drinking water supplies from the Himalayas to the Andes mountains. In a report by Nature, an international weekly journal of science, it states that an estimated 1.9 billion people will be affected by lower snowpack and melting glaciers as the climate warms.

...

But that's not the only factor pushing Orizaba’s glacier toward extinction. The volcano, once covered in pine forests, is pockmarked by fields where crops are grown and sheep graze. A 2014 report states that in a 25-year period, Orizaba lost 87% of its vegetation.

Demeneghi said that authorities turn a blind eye to this deforestation even though it’s illegal.

That’s because the forests help keep the mountainside cool; trees help condense and capture moisture from wet clouds traveling from the Caribbean coast.   

Decades ago, Demeneghi founded the organization Save Orizaba Peak, which helped to reforest an area on the volcano.

Eight years later, they can see the results. The area is thick with conifer pines, some about Demeneghi’s height, some reaching far higher. Young saplings sprout up in between. The temperature is remarkably cooler than the surrounding land.

Together with local communities, and the national park, Save Orizaba Peak planted 5 million trees and built hundreds of miles of fire lines to help control potential wildfires.

It was a big success — an example of how local communities can adapt to a changing climate. That is, until private funding ran out, governments changed and the COVID-19 pandemic hit.

Related: Russians and Ukrainians attempt to flee to the US through Mexico

The loss of vegetation on Orizaba peak, the decreasing rain and the melting of the glacier there is also having a tremendous impact far away.

The Jamapa river begins as runoff from the Jamapa glacier and runs 174 miles downstream until it pours into the Gulf of Mexico. The river is essential for roughly 1.5 million people who use it for drinking water, irrigation and fishing.

But according to Carlos Welsh from the University of Veracruz, melt-off from the Jamapa glacier is already 30% lower than just a decade ago.

“This river has decreased 60% over the last 15 years,” small farmer and water activist Enedino González said in late March, speaking from the edge of the Atoyac River, which runs into the Jamapa river. “It’s putting at risk people’s lives and our ability to irrigate crops and access drinking water.”

Down where the Jamapa river empties into the ocean, fishermen are having a harder time finding fish. Saltwater from the Caribbean has been detected 5 miles upstream, threatening coastal communities and their ability to use the Jamapa for drinking water or irrigation.

and more:
https://theworld.org/stories/2022-04-12/mexicos-last-glaciers-melt-communities-depend-mountain-springs-scramble-find
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be cause

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Re: Glaciers worldwide decline faster than ever
« Reply #110 on: July 11, 2022, 12:20:23 AM »
.. this one faster than most : https://akipress.com/news:673330

 incredible video of glacier collapse in Kazakhstan 08/07 ..
« Last Edit: July 11, 2022, 01:33:20 AM by be cause »
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kassy

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Re: Glaciers worldwide decline faster than ever
« Reply #111 on: January 06, 2023, 06:46:36 PM »
Half of Earth's Glaciers Will Be Gone By 2100, But We Can Still Save The Rest


Half of the Earth's glaciers, notably smaller ones, are destined to disappear by the end of the century because of climate change, but limiting global warming could save others, according to a new study.

The findings, published in the journal Science on Thursday, provide the most comprehensive look so far at the future of the world's 215,000 glaciers.

The authors emphasized the importance of restricting greenhouse gas emissions to limit the consequences from glacier melt such as sea level rise and depletion of water resources.

To help orient policy makers, the study looked at the impact of four scenarios on glaciers, where global mean temperature change is 1.5 degrees Celsius (2.7 degrees Fahrenheit), 2.0 degrees Celsius, 3.0 degrees Celsius and 4.0 degrees Celsius.

"Every degree increase produces more melt and loss," said Regine Hock of the University of Oslo and University of Alaska Fairbanks, a co-author of the study.

"But that also means if you reduce the temperature increase, you can also reduce that mass loss," Hock told AFP. "So in that sense, there is also a little bit of hope."

Even if global temperature rise is limited to 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels – the most ambitious goal of the Paris Agreement – the researchers estimated that 49 percent of the world's glaciers would vanish by the year 2100.

That would represent about 26 percent of the world's glacier mass because the smallest glaciers would be those first impacted.

Global mean temperature is currently estimated to be increasing by 2.7 degrees Celsius which would result in a near-complete loss of glaciers in Central Europe, Western Canada and the continental United States and New Zealand.

"Regions with relatively little ice like the European Alps, the Caucasus, the Andes, or the western US, they lose almost all the ice by the end of the century almost no matter what the emission scenario is," Hock said. "So those glaciers, they're more or less doomed."

...

https://www.sciencealert.com/half-of-earths-glaciers-will-be-gone-by-2100-but-we-can-still-save-the-rest
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vox_mundi

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Re: Glaciers worldwide decline faster than ever
« Reply #112 on: January 08, 2023, 06:38:55 PM »
Study: Two-thirds of Glaciers On Track to Disappear by 2100
https://phys.org/news/2023-01-two-thirds-glaciers-track.html

The study in Thursday's journal Science examined all of the globe's 215,000 land-based glaciers—not counting those on ice sheets in Greenland and Antarctica—in a more comprehensive way than past studies. Scientists then used computer simulations to calculate, using different levels of warming, how many glaciers would disappear, how many trillions of tons of ice would melt, and how much it would contribute to sea level rise.

The world is now on track for a 2.7-degree Celsius (4.9 degrees Fahrenheit) temperature rise since pre-industrial times, which by the year 2100 means losing 32% of the world's glacier mass, or 48.5 trillion metric tons of ice as well as 68% of the glaciers disappearing. That would increase sea level rise by 4.5 inches (115 millimeters) in addition to seas already getting larger from melting ice sheets and warmer water, said study lead author David Rounce.

In an unlikely worst-case scenario of several degrees of warming, 83% of the world's glaciers would likely disappear by the year 2100, study authors said.

Projected ice loss by 2100 ranges from 38.7 trillion metric tons to 64.4 trillion tons, depending on how much the globe warms and how much coal, oil and gas is burned, according to the study.

The study calculates that all that melting ice will add anywhere from 3.5 inches (90 millimeters) in the best case to 6.5 inches (166 millimeters) in the worst case to the world's sea level, 4% to 14% more than previous projections.

That 4.5 inches of sea level rise from glaciers would mean more than 10 million people around the world—and more than 100,000 people in the United States—would be living below the high tide line, who otherwise would be above it, said sea level rise researcher Ben Strauss, CEO of Climate Central. Twentieth-century sea level rise from climate change added about 4 inches to the surge from 2012 Superstorm Sandy costing about $8 billion in damage just in itself, he said.

Scientists say future sea level rise will be driven more by melting ice sheets than glaciers.

But the loss of glaciers is about more than rising seas. It means shrinking water supplies for a big chunk of the world's population, more risk from flood events from melting glaciers and about losing historic ice-covered spots from Alaska to the Alps to even near Mount Everest's base camp, several scientists told The Associated Press.

If the world can somehow limit warming to the global goal of 1.5 degrees Celsius (2.7 degrees Fahrenheit) of warming since pre-industrial times—the world is already at 1.1 degrees (2 degrees Fahrenheit)—Earth will likely lose 26% of total glacial mass by the end of the century, which is 38.7 trillion metric tons of ice melting. Previous best estimates had that level of warming melting translating to only 18% of total mass loss.

David R. Rounce, Global glacier change in the 21st century: Every increase in temperature matters, Science (2023).
https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.abo1324

Guðfinna Aðalgeirsdóttir et al, Acting now will reduce glacier loss, Science (2023).
https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.ade2355
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kassy

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Re: Glaciers worldwide decline faster than ever
« Reply #113 on: April 24, 2023, 04:43:23 PM »
United Nations reports 'off the charts' melting of glaciers

...

"Antarctic sea ice fell to its lowest extent on record and the melting of some European glaciers was, literally, off the charts," the WMO spelled out as it launched its annual climate overview.

...

The world's reference glaciers – those for which long-term observations exist – saw an average thickness loss of more than 1.3 metres between October 2021 and October 2022 – a loss much larger than the average over the last decade.

The cumulative thickness loss since 1970 amounts to almost 30  metres.

In Europe, the Alps smashed records for glacier melt due to a combination of little winter snow, an intrusion of Saharan dust in March 2022 and heatwaves between May and early September.

We have already lost the melting of the glaciers game, because we already have such a high concentration of CO2," WMO chief Petteri Taalas told AFP in an interview.

In the Swiss Alps, "last summer we lost 6.2 percent of the glacier mass, which is the highest amount since records started."

"This is serious," he said, explaining that the disappearance of the glaciers would limit freshwater supplies for humans and for agriculture, and also harm transport links if rivers become less navigable.

...

https://www.batimes.com.ar/news/world/united-nations-reports-off-the-charts-melting-of-glaciers.phtml
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FrostKing70

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Re: Glaciers worldwide decline faster than ever
« Reply #114 on: August 21, 2023, 09:17:24 PM »
Swiss glaciers:

https://apnews.com/article/switzerland-heat-wave-glaciers-high-temperatures-zerodegrees-19966dbcfa253233ea115e1c5f4e151d


"Swiss glaciers under threat again as heat wave drives zero-temperature level to record high
"

"GENEVA (AP) — The Swiss weather service said Monday a heat wave has driven the zero-degree Celsius level to its highest altitude since recordings on it in Switzerland began nearly 70 years ago, an ominous new sign for the country’s vaunted glaciers.

MeteoSwiss says the zero-degree isotherm level reached 5,298 meters (17,381 feet) above sea level over Switzerland overnight Sunday to Monday. All of Switzerland’s snow-capped Alpine peaks — the highest being the 4,634-meter (15,203-foot) Monte Rosa summit — were in air temperatures over the level where water freezes to ice, raising prospects of a thaw."

FrostKing70

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Re: Glaciers worldwide decline faster than ever
« Reply #115 on: August 21, 2023, 09:20:19 PM »
The last paragraph of the article above references a recent study:

"A Swiss study last year found that the country’s 1,400-odd glaciers — the most in Europe — had lost more than half their total volume since the early 1930s, including a 12-percent decline over the previous six years alone."

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Re: Glaciers worldwide decline faster than ever
« Reply #116 on: September 05, 2023, 09:02:21 PM »
https://www.cbc.ca/newsinteractives/features/the-canary-in-the-icefield

Quote
Scientists have tracked the fate of the Peyto Glacier in the Rocky Mountains for decades as a global reference point. It’s disappearing faster than expected — a warning sign for communities downstream.

Images from left to right: 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022



Disappearing fast, indeed. I've been there quite a few times over the years...
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Re: Glaciers worldwide decline faster than ever
« Reply #117 on: September 14, 2023, 03:59:26 AM »

Matthias Huss @matthias_huss Sep 12

Alpine #glaciers continue to fall apart...
Last year (left) we discovered bedrock in a crevasse in the middle of Griesgletscher, indicating very small ice thickness.
Same location yesterday (right).
Amazed again and again how fast the loss is unfolding!

@VAW_glaciology


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kassy

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Re: Glaciers worldwide decline faster than ever
« Reply #118 on: April 05, 2024, 10:24:26 PM »
Enormous ice loss from Greenland glacier

Melt rates of 130 metres per year measured under the 79° N-Glacier

Ground-based measuring devices and aircraft radar operated in the far northeast of Greenland show how much ice the 79 N-Glacier is losing. According to recent measurements, the thickness of the glacier has decreased by more than 160 meters since 1998. Warm ocean water flowing under the glacier tongue is melting the ice from below. High air temperatures cause lakes to form on the surface, whose water flows through huge channels in the ice into the ocean. One channel reached a height of 500 meters, while the ice above was only 190 meters thick.

...

Only recently, an AWI oceanography team published a modelling study on this subject.

The unique data set of observations now presented shows that extremely high melt rates occur over a large area near the transition to the ice sheet.

In addition, large channels form on the underside of the ice from the land side, probably because the water from huge lakes drains through the glacier ice.

Both processes have led to a strong thinning of the glacier in recent decades.

Due to extreme melt rates, the ice of the floating glacier tongue has become 32 % thinner since 1998, especially from the grounding line where the ice comes into contact with the ocean.

In addition, a 500-metre-high channel has formed on the underside of the ice, which spreads towards the inland.

The researchers attribute these changes to warm ocean currents in the cavity below the floating tongue and to the runoff of surface meltwater as a result of atmospheric warming.

A surprising finding was that melt rates have decreased since 2018.

A possible cause for this is a colder ocean inflow. "The fact that this system reacts on such short time scales is astonishing for systems that are actually inert such as glaciers," says Prof Dr Angelika Humbert, who is also involved in the study.

...

https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2024/03/240322145451.htm
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Re: Glaciers worldwide decline faster than ever
« Reply #119 on: April 06, 2024, 02:55:10 AM »
Nice paper, thanks!  open source too, read all about it. I do wonder if those deep outflows can be used to calculate landward sea ice loss.

sidd

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Re: Glaciers worldwide decline faster than ever
« Reply #120 on: May 16, 2024, 08:11:58 AM »
A mountainous country loses its last glacier
The last of Venezuela’s glaciers has disappeared, scientists say, despite an unusual government effort to save it.

The demise of La Corona, downgraded to an ice field after shrinking from more than 1,100 acres to less than five, makes this South American nation the only one in the Andes range without a glacier - but it’s unlikely to be the last. Scientists, who long predicted the end of La Corona, say warming temperatures will render the entire Northern Andes, which snakes through Venezuela, Colombia and Ecuador, glacier-free by 2050.
https://www.stuff.co.nz/climate-change/350280026/mountainous-country-loses-its-last-glacier
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Re: Glaciers worldwide decline faster than ever
« Reply #122 on: July 02, 2024, 05:31:45 PM »
Melting of Alaskan Glaciers Accelerating Faster Than Previously Thought, Research Suggests
https://phys.org/news/2024-07-alaskan-glaciers-faster-previously-thought.html


Equilibrium Line Altitudes (ELA)

Melting of glaciers in a major Alaskan icefield has accelerated and could reach an irreversible tipping point earlier than previously thought, new research suggests.

The research, led by scientists at Newcastle University, UK, found that glacier loss on Juneau Icefield, which straddles the boundary between Alaska and British Columbia, Canada, has increased dramatically since 2010.

The team, which also included universities in the UK, U.S. and Europe, looked at records going back to 1770 and identified three distinct periods in how icefield volume changed. They saw that glacier volume loss remained fairly consistent from 1770—1979 at between 0.65– 1.01 km3 per year, increasing to 3.08–3.72 km3 per year between 1979–2010. Between 2010–2020 there was a sharp acceleration when the rate of ice loss doubled, reaching 5.91 km3 per year.

In particular, the research, published in Nature Communications, found that icefield-wide, rates of glacier area shrinkage were five times faster from 2015–2019 relative to 1948–1979.

Overall, the total ice loss across the Juneau icefield between 1770–2020 (315.3 ± 237.5 km3) equated to just under a quarter of the original ice volume.

The increased rate of glacier thinning has also been accompanied by increased glacier fragmentation. The team mapped a dramatic increase in disconnections, where the lower parts of a glacier become separated from the upper parts.

Additionally, 100% of glaciers mapped in 2019 have receded relative to their position in 1770, and 108 glaciers have disappeared completely.



Study lead, Dr. Bethan Davies, Senior Lecturer, Newcastle University, said, "It's incredibly worrying that our research found a rapid acceleration since the early 21st century in the rate of glacier loss across the Juneau icefield.

"Alaskan icefields—which are predominantly flat, plateau icefields—are particularly vulnerable to accelerated melt as the climate warms since ice loss happens across the whole surface, meaning a much greater area is affected.

"Additionally, flatter ice caps and icefields cannot retreat to higher elevations and find a new equilibrium.

"As glacier thinning on the Juneau plateau continues and ice retreats to lower levels and warmer air, the feedback processes this sets in motion is likely to prevent future glacier regrowth, potentially pushing glaciers beyond a tipping point into irreversible recession."

Alaska contains some of the world's largest plateau icefields and their melting is a major contributor to current sea level rise. The researchers think the processes they observed at Juneau are likely to affect other, similar icefields elsewhere across Alaska and Canada, as well as Greenland, Norway and other high-Arctic locations.

They also say current published projections for the Juneau icefield that suggest ice volume loss will be linear until 2040, accelerating only after 2070, may need to be updated to reflect the processes detailed in this latest study.

Dr. Davies said, "This work has shown that different processes can accelerate melt, which means that currrent glacier projections may be too small and underestimate glacier melt in the future."

Bethan Davies et al, Accelerating glacier volume loss on Juneau Icefield driven by hypsometry and melt-accelerating feedbacks, Nature Communications (2024)
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-024-49269-y
« Last Edit: July 02, 2024, 05:39:55 PM by vox_mundi »
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gerontocrat

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Re: Glaciers worldwide decline faster than ever
« Reply #123 on: August 18, 2024, 12:38:51 PM »
A preprint paper (open access) currently under review for the journal ESSD - Annual mass changes for each glacier in the world from 1976 to 2023

dataset link - https://user.geo.uzh.ch/idussa/Dussaillant_etal_ESSD_data/

I could not find the explantion of the dataset

https://essd.copernicus.org/preprints/essd-2024-323/
Quote
Annual mass changes for each glacier in the world from 1976 to 2023
Ines Dussaillant, Romain Hugonnet, Matthias Huss, Etienne Berthier, Jacqueline Bannwart, Frank Paul, and Michael Zemp
Abstract.
Glaciers, distinct from the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets, play a crucial role in Earth's climate system by affecting global sea levels, freshwater availability, nutrient and energy budgets and regional climate patterns. Accurate measurements of glacier mass changes are needed to understand and project glacier evolution and its related impacts on the climate system. Two distinct methods allow to measure glacier mass changes at high spatial resolution. Remotely sensed surface elevation data provides volume change estimates over large glacierized regions for multi-annual to decadal time periods. Field glaciological measurements provide annually to seasonally resolved information on glacier mass change for a small sample of the world’s glaciers. By combining the two methods we provide annual time series of individual glacier mass changes and related uncertainties spanning the hydrological years from 1976 to 2023. The per-glacier time series can then be seamlessly integrated into annually resolved global regular grids of glacier mass changes at user-specified spatial resolution. Our results undergo a leave-one-out cross-validation confirming uncertainty estimates at the glacier level to be in the conservative side. Our dataset provides a new baseline for future glacier change modelling assessments and their impact on the world's energy, water, and sea-level budget. The present annual mass change time-series for the individual glaciers and the derived global gridded annual mass change product at a spatial resolution of 0.5° latitude and longitude will be made available from the WGMS webpage. During the review process, the dataset is temporarily available from URL: https://user.geo.uzh.ch/idussa/Dussaillant_etal_ESSD_data/.

8. Conclusions
Building on the strengths and insights from previous global observation-based assessments of glacier mass change, we present a novel integrated approach that provides globally comprehensive, per-glacier annual mass changes and their associated uncertainties from 1976 to 2023.

Our results offer critical insights into the alarming acceleration of glacier melt, revealing significant contributions to global sea level rise, particularly evident in the last decade and specifically in 2023 with a record loss of 602 ± 69 Gt. Over the past five decades, glaciers globally have lost 8226 ± 845 Gt (171 ± 27 Gt year-1) of water contributing to a 22.7 ± 2.3 mm (0.5 ± 0.3 mm year-1 ) rise in sea levels. Nearly half (44%) of this loss occurred in the last
decade, with 7% occurring in 2023 alone.

625 Compared to earlier assessments, our new dataset allows to extend annual glacier change observations across five decades. By integrating extensive geodetic data, our approach corrects existing biases in long-term trends and enables to estimate the interannual variability of mass changes at an individual glacier level, improving both the spatial and temporal resolution of
previous global glacier mass change assessments while maintaining the dataset's independence and purely observational nature. Validation through a leave-one-out cross-validation exercise confirms the dataset's ability to capture the interannual variability

630 of individual glacier mass changes with realistic uncertainty estimates.
The primary limitation of this assessment is the scarciity of glaciological observations, particularly regions with sparse and widely spaced mass change time series. Consequently, the mean anomalies of annual glacier changes captured may not accurately reflect the local variability in under-sampled regions. While refining the climatic regions used to capture mean anomalies could enhance accuracy, substantial improvements ultimately depend on larger glaciological samples.

Therefore,
635 ensuring the continuation of local in-situ monitoring efforts is crucial for sustaining and updating global glacier mass change assessments. Support should be directed towards regions with a low density of in-situ measurements, often coinciding with countries facing resource limitations or situated in highly remote areas. Moreover, maintaining spaceborne missions for
cryosphere observation proves to be essential for preserving the global completeness and long-term accuracy of glacier changes worldwide.

640 Glaciers are classified as one of the Earth’s Essential Climate Variables (ECV, GCOS, 2022). This assessment provides new empirical evidence on the evolution of glaciers at local, regional, and global scales, to guide mitigation and adaptation measures related to a changing cryosphere. The refined data underscores the urgent need for global climate action to understand and adapt to the adverse effects of accelerated glacier melting and its cascading impacts on environmental systems. Our results, freely available through the WGMS and the C3S CDS, hold vast potential for applications in various fields within and beyond

645 glaciology. These include international cryosphere observation intercomparison exercises; multi-Essential Climate Variable (ECV) products; serving as invaluable resources for calibrating and validating climate models; and advancing our understanding of the broader implications of glacier melt on sea levels, freshwater resources, global energy budgets, and nutrient cycling. This work opens new opportunities for future assessments of global glacier mass changes at increased
temporal resolutions, fostering a more detailed examination of their climate and hydrological impacts worldwide.


How to cite. Dussaillant, I., Hugonnet, R., Huss, M., Berthier, E., Bannwart, J., Paul, F., and Zemp, M.: Annual mass changes for each glacier in the world from 1976 to 2023, Earth Syst. Sci. Data Discuss. [preprint], https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2024-323, in review, 2024.
Received: 26 Jul 2024 – Discussion started: 12 Aug 2024
« Last Edit: August 18, 2024, 12:46:49 PM by gerontocrat »
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Phil.

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Re: Glaciers worldwide decline faster than ever
« Reply #124 on: August 18, 2024, 09:26:53 PM »
Hard to imagine that this year won't be at least as bad as last year's record.

gerontocrat

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Re: Glaciers worldwide decline faster than ever
« Reply #125 on: August 26, 2024, 05:52:08 PM »
Hard to imagine that this year won't be at least as bad as last year's record.
Seems that as far as Svalbard is concerned, 2023 was awful, 2024 is even worse.

The attached article was published on August 17 and Svalbard temperatures now seem to be even more above the "norm". (see melting season thread)

Link......
https://scitechdaily.com/svalbard-crisis-glaciers-melt-at-unprecedented-rates-as-temperatures-soar/

A good read and some great images
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