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Alexander555

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Re: Heatwaves
« Reply #350 on: August 06, 2019, 01:28:13 PM »

Tom_Mazanec

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Sigmetnow

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Re: Heatwaves
« Reply #352 on: August 10, 2019, 06:24:24 PM »
In the future, only the rich will be able to escape the unbearable heat from climate change. In Iraq, it’s already happening
Quote
A United Nations report released last month warned that the world is heading for a “climate apartheid” scenario, “where the wealthy pay to escape overheating, hunger and conflict while the rest of the world is left to suffer”.

In Baghdad, that is already a reality. On 48C days, which are now coming earlier in the year, air conditioners are the most effective way of staying cool. But an electricity crisis in the country is putting even that essential tool out of reach to low-income families.

The crisis – caused by a combination of corruption, mismanagement and a creaking national grid – has exacerbated the country’s energy divide. The result is a huge gap between electricity supply and demand, especially in the summer. A diesel generator can be used to meet some of the shortfall, but running an air conditioner from a generator is a luxury only a few can afford.

“The electricity is completely unpredictable,” says Abu Ahmed, a metal shop owner just down the street from Muhammad. “Sometimes it comes on at 10am and lasts all day, sometimes it’s only one hour. The air conditioner is out of the question without the government grid."  ...
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/middle-east/climate-change-apartheid-poor-iraq-effects-heatwave-a9049206.html
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

nanning

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Re: Heatwaves
« Reply #353 on: August 10, 2019, 06:34:23 PM »
37,202,572 humans live in Iraq.
"It is preoccupation with possessions, more than anything else, that prevents us from living freely and nobly" - Bertrand Russell
   Simple: minimize your possessions and be free and kind    It's just a mindset.       Refugees welcome

Sigmetnow

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Re: Heatwaves
« Reply #354 on: August 11, 2019, 03:25:41 AM »
Oklahoma, U.S.

Steve Piltz (@SPiltz) 8/10/19, 4:11 PM
Dangerous heat ...
https://twitter.com/spiltz/status/1160282608435105795

Wet bulb temps.
91°F = 32.8°C
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

DrTskoul

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Re: Heatwaves
« Reply #355 on: August 11, 2019, 03:44:14 AM »
Sounds lovely.... :o :o

TerryM

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Re: Heatwaves
« Reply #356 on: August 11, 2019, 05:05:28 AM »
Oklahoma, U.S.

Steve Piltz (@SPiltz) 8/10/19, 4:11 PM
Dangerous heat ...
https://twitter.com/spiltz/status/1160282608435105795

Wet bulb temps.
91°F = 32.8°C


Those temperatures are killers!


We operate internally at ~ 98 F and regulate our temperature by evaporation of water.
When wet bulb temperatures approach internal body temperatures it's increasingly difficult regulate body temperature. Our bodies simply overheat even when we're lying still.


Wet bulb temperatures need to be included in all weather reports/forecasts.
A/C isn't a luxury, heat stroke will cripple or kill.


Terry

DrTskoul

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Re: Heatwaves
« Reply #357 on: August 11, 2019, 05:10:10 AM »
Yeap, my godmother got killed by the '87 Athens heatwave

vox_mundi

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Re: Heatwaves
« Reply #358 on: August 13, 2019, 01:50:41 AM »
Dangerous Heat Grips Wide Stretch of the South and Midwest
https://phys.org/news/2019-08-dangerous-states-south-midwest.html

Forecasters are warning of scorching heat across a wide stretch of the U.S. South and Midwest, where the heat index will feel as high as 117 degrees (47 Celsius) in some spots.

Parts of 13 states on Monday will be under heat advisories, from Texas, Louisiana and Florida in the South to Missouri and Illinois in the Midwest, the National Weather Service reported.

Some of the most oppressive conditions Monday were being felt in Louisiana, Arkansas, Mississippi and Oklahoma, forecasters said.

It was expected to feel like 116 degrees (46.7 Celsius) in parts of eastern Oklahoma, near Tulsa, on Monday, forecasters said. And parts of Arkansas just west of Memphis, Tennessee, could see heat indexes Monday of around 117 degrees (47.2 Celsius).

... "It feels like hell is what it feels like," said Junae Brooks, who runs Junae's Grocery in Holly Bluff, Mississippi.

In the Mississippi Delta region, farmers did not have a choice but to work in the fields Monday since they're scrambling to make repairs and get caught up after floodwaters inundated the region in recent months. The flooding—which involved an area larger than New York City and Los Angeles combined—has recently receded and the farmers are just now able to reach their land and begin cleaning up the mess left behind.

"The mosquitoes the gnats, the spiders, the snakes—all of them—have been way worse this year," Brooks said of the land known locally as the Yazoo backwater area.

The region hardest-hit by this week's heat wave could experience many more days each year when the heat index soars as the effects of climate change increase, scientists say.
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

Tom_Mazanec

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Re: Heatwaves
« Reply #359 on: August 13, 2019, 02:19:14 AM »

New research shows that summer temperatures can vary as much as 20 degrees across different parts of a city, with poor and minority neighborhoods often bearing the brunt.
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2019/08/09/climate/city-heat-islands.html?rref=collection%2Fsectioncollection%2Fclimate
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vox_mundi

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Re: Heatwaves
« Reply #360 on: August 14, 2019, 03:02:08 AM »


Energy Emergency Declared Amidst Texas Heat Wave
https://www.kwtx.com/content/news/Energy-emergency-declared-amidst-Texas-heat-wave-540437911.html

AUSTIN, Texas (KWTX) The operator of the electric grid that serves most of Texas has declared an energy conservation emergency as temperatures across much of the state approached or exceeded 100 degrees.

The Energy Reliability Council of Texas appealed to all of the state's consumers of electric power to limit and reduce their usage during the peak demand hours of 3 to 7 p.m. Tuesday after reserve capacity fell below 2,300 megawatts.

A megawatt is about enough electricity to power roughly 200 homes running air conditioners during hot weather

-------------------

Power Blows Past $9,000 Cap in Texas as Heat Triggers Emergency
https://www.bloomberg.com/amp/news/articles/2019-08-13/texas-power-prices-briefly-surpass-9-000-amid-searing-heat

Electricity prices briefly surged past a $9,000 a megawatt-hour price cap in Texas as extreme heat sent power demand skyrocketing and forced the state’s grid operator to declare an emergency.

As temperatures in Dallas climbed to 103 degrees Fahrenheit (39 Celsius), the Electric Reliability Council of Texas issued an emergency alert, calling on all power plants to ramp up and asking customers to conserve. At one point on Tuesday afternoon, the region had just 2,121 megawatts left in power reserves, less than 3% of total demand on the system.

... ERCOT has said its planning reserve margin for this summer was a historically low 7.4% because several generators have been retired even though demand is rising

Lower power prices make it difficult for some generators, like those operating old coal-fired plants, to make money selling electricity.
« Last Edit: August 14, 2019, 03:09:22 AM by vox_mundi »
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

Tom_Mazanec

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Re: Heatwaves
« Reply #361 on: August 14, 2019, 04:00:18 AM »
Heat waves like the ongoing event in the Southern Plains and Gulf Coast are becoming increasingly humid, which makes them more dangerous to human health.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2019/08/13/increasing-humidity-driven-part-by-climate-change-is-making-even-modest-heat-waves-unbearable/
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vox_mundi

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Re: Heatwaves
« Reply #362 on: August 15, 2019, 11:19:17 PM »
A Weather Station Above the Arctic Circle Hit 94.6 Degrees Fahrenheit
https://earther.gizmodo.com/a-weather-station-above-the-arctic-circle-hit-94-6-degr-1837274379

According to data released in the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s (NOAA) monthly climate analysis, a weather station in Sweden north of the Arctic Circle hit a stunning 94.6 Fahrenheit (34.8 degrees Celsius) last month.

... The steamy temperature was recorded on July 26 in the small Swedish outpost of Markusvinsa, which sits on the southern edge of the Arctic Circle. Deke Arndt, a NOAA climate scientist, said on a call with reporters that the data was analyzed and quality controlled by the Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute and that “they have established that as highest temperature north of the Arctic Circle” for the country. For comparison, the hottest temperature recorded in New York City last month was 95 degrees Fahrenheit (35 degrees Celsius).
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

Tom_Mazanec

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Re: Heatwaves
« Reply #363 on: August 19, 2019, 05:43:02 PM »
Alaska has been in the throes of an unprecedented heat wave this summer, and the heat stress is killing salmon in large numbers.
Scientists have observed die-offs of several varieties of Alaskan salmon, including sockeye, chum and pink salmon.
https://myfox8.com/2019/08/18/the-water-is-so-hot-in-alaska-its-killing-large-numbers-of-salmon/
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Juan C. García

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Re: Heatwaves
« Reply #364 on: August 23, 2019, 05:44:21 AM »
Europe to see third major heat wave this summer, as temperatures soar from France to Scandinavia
Quote
For the third time this summer, parts of Europe will soon be dealing with another heat wave. Temperatures will climb some 20 degrees above average in spots beginning this weekend, baking much of Eastern Europe and Scandinavia in unseasonable warmth.

The culprit for the hot weather will again be a strong area of high pressure aloft, or heat dome, that will set up an atmospheric squeeze-play of sorts between low pressure on either side. This will draw a flow of unusually warm air northward.

...

More heat for Scandinavia before this system moves into the Arctic
The heat wave may be especially anomalous in Scandinavia. Bergen, Norway, will climb into the mid-70s next week, up from average highs of just above 60.

...

It could enhance sea ice melt heading into early September, and sea ice extent is already running near a record low.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2019/08/22/europe-see-third-major-heat-wave-this-year-temperatures-soar-france-scandinavia/
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

liefde

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Re: Heatwaves
« Reply #365 on: August 26, 2019, 01:19:59 PM »
I'm predicting 52 Celsius peaks for next Summer in the Marseille-Nîmes area (SE France).
It's not going to get cooler any time soon, people. Better face the fact and get prepared.
https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/2515-7620/ab1871

TerryM

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Re: Heatwaves
« Reply #366 on: August 26, 2019, 01:35:30 PM »

^^Wetbulb temps?
Terry

Tom_Mazanec

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Re: Heatwaves
« Reply #367 on: August 26, 2019, 04:00:57 PM »
I'm predicting 52 Celsius peaks for next Summer in the Marseille-Nîmes area (SE France).
It's not going to get cooler any time soon, people. Better face the fact and get prepared.
https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/2515-7620/ab1871
Isn't heat to that level weather, not climate? How do you predict a annual high that far in advance?
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bligh8

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Re: Heatwaves
« Reply #368 on: August 26, 2019, 04:57:26 PM »
I might think that all weather today and for some years now is related to climate change.

bligh

TerryM

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Re: Heatwaves
« Reply #369 on: August 26, 2019, 05:38:39 PM »
I might think that all weather today and for some years now is related to climate change.

bligh
Ramen !
Terry

blumenkraft

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Re: Heatwaves
« Reply #370 on: August 26, 2019, 09:38:18 PM »
I might think that all weather today and for some years now is related to climate change.

bligh

There is a new kind of meteorology evolving that tries to calculate the differences for weather events. I heard it in a podcast, but can't find it at the moment. Will come back to you when i've found out how it's called.
Refugees welcome

bligh8

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Re: Heatwaves
« Reply #371 on: August 26, 2019, 10:23:26 PM »
                            "Will come back to you when i've found out how it's called."

Thank You....This past winter I shoveled snow with a broom, twice I think.  Spring was confusing for the plants, cold then warm, several cold days then warm. Those warm sweet summer nights of the 50s&60s have turned into paltry steamy nightmares, punctuated by rain events approaching biblical proportions. 

Back in the 80s/90s I played a unspoken game of "birds" with a friend.  The person who saw a Robin first had to say where, when & what the bird was doing & for that won one dollar.  For years it was within days of March 15th.  Then early 2000s the game was cancelled due to fact the Birds never left. Now my bird bath along the back properity edge goes unused.  For decades I took pride in the fact that every afternoon I would lightly clean the bird bath and refill it.  Every morning the was always a bird fight to see whom would bath first....the biggest bird always went first.  Now my stone monolith sits unused awaiting a bird.

bligh 

vox_mundi

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Re: Heatwaves
« Reply #372 on: August 26, 2019, 10:44:53 PM »
I've noticed the same thing bligh8; especially the absence of birds. And yet,  to a child growing up today, this is 'normal'. As Obi Wan would say: 'there's been a profound disturbance in the force'

This might be the link you're looking for ...

World Weather Attribution
https://www.worldweatherattribution.org/

World Weather Attribution (WWA) is an international effort to analyse and communicate the possible influence of climate change on extreme weather events, such as storms, extreme rainfall, heatwaves, cold spells, and droughts.

Identifying a human fingerprint on individual extreme weather events —“probabilistic extreme event attribution” — has been an important goal of the scientific community for more than a decade. In 2004, Prof. Peter Stott of the UK Met Office and his colleagues, published a paper in Nature showing that climate change had at least doubled the risk of the record-breaking 2003 European summer heatwave that resulted in the deaths of tens of thousands of people.

Since then, advances in the field have prompted numerous studies, leading the Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society (BAMS) to dedicate an annual special issue to extreme event attribution for the past four years. The 2016 BAMS special issue, Explaining extreme events of 2015 from a climate perspective, stated that “The science has now advanced to the point that we can detect the effects of climate change on some events with high confidence.” In addition, the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering and Medicine issued a report in 2016, Attribution of extreme weather events in the context of climate change, that states, ....

“In the past, a typical climate scientist’s response to questions about climate change’s role in any given extreme weather event was ‘we cannot attribute any single event to climate change.’ The science has advanced to the point that this is no longer true as an unqualified blanket statement.
« Last Edit: August 27, 2019, 12:07:14 AM by vox_mundi »
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

TerryM

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Re: Heatwaves
« Reply #373 on: August 26, 2019, 11:34:20 PM »
Last winter I saw a pair of robins forlornly trying to peck through ~6 inches of snow, apparently not aware that the ground was frozen below.
Good news for the worms I suppose. ???
Terry

Tom_Mazanec

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Re: Heatwaves
« Reply #374 on: August 27, 2019, 09:02:51 PM »
Heat waves getting larger, lasting longer, Alabama researcher finds
https://www.al.com/news/2019/08/heat-waves-now-larger-longer-alabama-researcher-finds.html
Quote
“In general, what we’re seeing is the heat waves are happening much more frequently,” said David Keellings, an associate professor of geography at the University of Alabama. “And then, also, when they do happen, they tend to have a higher magnitude. They tend to be hotter than they used to be. And also, we tend to find the heat waves, are lasting longer, have a longer duration in terms of the number of days that remain really, really hot.”
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Heatwaves
« Reply #375 on: September 03, 2019, 09:44:05 PM »
U.S.:  Houston, Texas

Quote
Eric Berger (@SpaceCityWX) 9/3/19, 12:42 PM
You can do it, ensemble member #35. All of Houston is pulling desperately for you.
https://twitter.com/spacecitywx/status/1168927365814263811
- there is one out of 50 European ensemble model members predicting a cold front in houston during the next 15 days.
(The thread enthusiastically roots for #35....)
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

vox_mundi

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Re: Heatwaves
« Reply #376 on: September 06, 2019, 01:06:38 AM »
'The Blob' Is back ...

------------------------------

Scientists Monitoring New Marine Heat Wave Off West Coast
https://phys.org/news/2019-09-scientists-marine-west-coast.html



Federal scientists said Thursday they are monitoring a new ocean heat wave off the U.S. West Coast, a development that could badly disrupt marine life including salmon, whales and sea lions.

The expanse of unusually warm water stretches from Alaska to California, researchers with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration said Thursday . It resembles a similar heat wave about five years ago that was blamed for poorer survival rates for young salmon, more humpback whales becoming entangled in fishing gear as they hunted closer to shore, and an algae bloom that shut down crabbing and clamming.

NOAA Fisheries said the water has reached temperatures more than 5 degrees Fahrenheit (~3°C) above average. It remains to be seen whether this heat wave dissipates more quickly than the last one, the agency said.

Scientists dubbed the last West Coast heat wave "the blob."

The new heave has emerged over the last few months, growing in a similar pattern in the same area. It's the second-most widespread heatwave in the northern Pacific Ocean in the last 40 years, after "the blob."

---------------------

How did the winter of 2014-15 evolve in the Bering Strait due to the 2014 'blob'?
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

Sigmetnow

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Re: Heatwaves
« Reply #377 on: September 06, 2019, 09:08:59 PM »
Washington, D.C.
Quote
Capital Weather Gang (@capitalweather) 9/6/19, 2:50 PM
* 7 of 11 of DC's hottest summers on record have occurred since 2010
* All 11 of DC's hottest summers (dating back to 1872) have occurred since 1980
https://twitter.com/capitalweather/status/1170046659440644099
CWG: Maybe we shouldn't/can't predict a cooler than normal summer anymore? Odds against it....
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

vox_mundi

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Re: Heatwaves
« Reply #378 on: September 08, 2019, 06:53:48 PM »
France Says 1,500 Died in Summer's Heat Wave
https://phys.org/news/2019-09-france-died-summer.html

France's health minister says 1,500 people died in this summer's heat wave in France—but a campaign of public awareness saved many lives.

Agnes Buzyn, speaking on France Inter radio Sunday, said there were over 1,000 more deaths that the annual average for the time of the year, and half of those were aged over 75. She said there were 18 days of recorded heat wave in France this year during June and July.

She noted, however, that it represented many fewer deaths than the scorching heat wave in 2003 that claimed 15,000 lives.
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

Tom_Mazanec

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Re: Heatwaves
« Reply #379 on: September 09, 2019, 05:56:58 PM »
More on France's heat wave:
RECORD HEAT WAVE LINKED TO CLIMATE CHANGE KILLED 1,500 PEOPLE IN FRANCE THIS SUMMER
https://www.newsweek.com/summer-heat-wave-climate-change-killed-1500-france-1458205
Quote
Although the number of deaths was high, Buzyn also pointed out that it was much lower than the 15,000 deaths that occurred during scorching summer heat wave back in 2003. The minister attributed the lower death toll in 2019 to a successful public awareness campaign.
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Tom_Mazanec

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Re: Heatwaves
« Reply #380 on: September 11, 2019, 08:38:20 PM »
122 degrees for days: the looming Phoenix heat wave that could harm thousands
https://www.vox.com/energy-and-environment/2019/9/9/20804544/climate-change-phoenix-heat-wave-deaths-extreme-weather
Quote
Droughts, heat waves, and wildfires are growing more intense and dangerous from global warming and rising greenhouse gas emissions. Meanwhile, we’re not reckoning with scientists’ predictions that worst-case weather scenarios will be more likely — and common — if we don’t change course. Only 41 percent of the American public believes climate change will affect them personally, a 2018 survey by Yale and George Mason University found.

Phoenix, Arizona, is susceptible to a heat wave that could peak at a staggering 122 degrees Fahrenheit. Southern California could face a wildfire that burns 1.5 million acres of land. Tampa, Florida, could see 26 feet of storm surge flooding from a hurricane, just below the record-breaking 28-foot storm surge of Hurricane Katrina.
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vox_mundi

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Re: Heatwaves
« Reply #381 on: September 30, 2019, 10:45:32 PM »
Collapse of Desert Bird Populations Likely Due to Heat Stress from Climate Change
https://phys.org/news/2019-09-collapse-bird-populations-due-stress.html

As temperatures rise, desert birds need more water to cool off at the same time as deserts are becoming drier, setting some species up for a severe crash, if not extinction, according to a new study from the University of California, Berkeley.

... The researchers' latest findings, part of UC Berkeley's Grinnell Resurvey Project, come from comparing levels of species declines to computer simulations of how "virtual birds" must deal with heat on an average hot day in Death Valley, which can be in the 30s Celsius—90s Fahrenheit—with low humidity. These temperatures are, on average, 2 C (3.6 F) hotter than 100 years ago. The birds that the model predicted would require the most extra water today, compared to a 100 years ago, were the species that had declined the most in the Mojave Desert over the past century. The desert straddles the border between California and Nevada.

The most threatened turn out to be larger birds, and those that have an insect or animal diet.

The team calculated that larger birds, like the mourning dove, require 10% to 30% more water today to keep cool because of the 2 C increase in Mojave Desert temperatures over the last 100 years.



According to the UC Berkeley analysis, birds that eat insects or other animals are more threatened by changes in evaporative water loss because they typically get all of their water from the moisture in their food. They seldom, if ever, drink from surface water sources. A 30% increase in water requirement could mean that larger birds have to catch an extra 60 to 70 bugs per day to survive the increased heat. If those bugs are even around, the birds still have to expend extra energy and time to find them.

The American kestrel, prairie falcon and turkey vulture, all large and carnivorous, have declined, as have large insect-eaters like the white-throated swift, violet-green swallow, olive-sided flycatcher, Western meadowlark and Western bluebird.

Smaller birds that eat seeds or are omnivores are less threatened, according to the model.

Vegetarian birds, such as seedeaters, face a different problem. Because they can drink from surface water sources—springs and pools in desert oases, they can supplement the water they get from their food. But that's only if water is around.

... According to Beissinger, the team's conclusions about these California and Nevada desert birds may apply to species in other regions of the world.

Eric A. Riddell el al., "Cooling requirements fueled the collapse of a desert bird community from climate change," PNAS (2019)
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Heatwaves
« Reply #382 on: October 02, 2019, 05:56:03 PM »
Dozens of U.S. Cities Had Their Hottest Septembers on Record
https://weather.com/safety/heat/news/2019-09-30-record-hot-september-2019-cities
Image below.

The southeast U.S. remains under a high pressure heat dome, with record heat and next to no rain:
NWS Columbia on Twitter: "The end of September was one of the warmest weeks on record at Augusta GA with 5 daily records set over a six day period. Columbia Metro set 2 records as well including a couple of highest low temperatures as well (not shown). The heat will continue this week. #scwx #gawx”
https://mobile.twitter.com/nwscolumbia/status/1179180193979625472
Data Graphic at the link.

Drought Map below from:
https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/
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Tom_Mazanec

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Re: Heatwaves
« Reply #383 on: October 02, 2019, 06:00:56 PM »
Well, it sure was hot as a place that rhymes with smell here in Twinsburg yesterday.
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Heatwaves
« Reply #384 on: October 02, 2019, 08:35:22 PM »
Washington, D.C.

Capital Weather Gang on Twitter:
"BREAKING: Washington hits 97, passing previous hottest October temperature of 96. This is DC's hottest October day in recorded history.
https://mobile.twitter.com/capitalweather/status/1179448554450046978
More at the link. (But not the image below. ;))
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gerontocrat

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Re: Heatwaves
« Reply #385 on: October 02, 2019, 08:54:40 PM »
Washington, D.C.

Capital Weather Gang on Twitter:
"BREAKING: Washington hits 97, passing previous hottest October temperature of 96. This is DC's hottest October day in recorded history.
https://mobile.twitter.com/capitalweather/status/1179448554450046978
More at the link. (But not the image below. ;))
No-one throwing snowballs in Congress today ?
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Heatwaves
« Reply #386 on: October 02, 2019, 10:07:54 PM »
Quote
Capital Weather Gang (@capitalweather) 10/2/19, 3:33 PM
Dulles, with a high so far of 95, joins DC and Baltimore (which both hit 98 [36.7°C]) in setting all-time October highs.
https://twitter.com/capitalweather/status/1179479565212803072

Quote
Andrew Freedman (@afreedma) 10/2/19, 1:30 PM
With the all-time monthly October record falling shortly after 1 pm in D.C., broader look reveals more than 130 million are roasting in mid-July heat on October 2 across much of the U.S.
https://mobile.twitter.com/afreedma/status/1179448512339165184

WaPo article: https://t.co/Ij56MAZiiF
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Heatwaves
« Reply #387 on: October 02, 2019, 10:15:30 PM »
...
No-one throwing snowballs in Congress today ?

No, but things are getting quite chilling for Republicans there:

The State Department's inspector general has arrived on Capitol Hill after requesting an urgent briefing with senior congressional staff.
https://www.cnn.com/2019/10/01/politics/deposition-delayed-impeachment-investigation/index.html
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Heatwaves
« Reply #388 on: October 06, 2019, 01:36:13 AM »
Southeast U.S.:  Wilmington, North Carolina
Quote
Mark Sudduth (@hurricanetrack) 10/4/19, 6:11 PM
We don’t even get rain with our frontal passages anymore. Just blowing dust. Wilmington is the new Phoenix I guess.
https://twitter.com/hurricanetrack/status/1180244144310149121
7-second video at the link.
MS: Hard to believe that a year ago the area was still dealing with record flooding from Florence. Now, much of the region is in drought. Kind of miss the sound of thunder.
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vox_mundi

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Re: Heatwaves
« Reply #389 on: October 08, 2019, 06:24:06 PM »
Heat Waves Could Increase Substantially in Size by Mid-Century (2050)
https://phys.org/news/2019-10-substantially-size-mid-century.html

...In a new study, scientists funded in part by the NOAA Climate Program Office's Climate Observations and Monitoring Program, found that by mid-century, in a middle greenhouse emissions scenario, the average size of heat waves could increase by 50%. Under high greenhouse gas concentrations, the average size could increase by 80% and the more extreme heat waves could more than double in size.

"As the physical size of these affected regions increases, more people will be exposed to heat stress," said Brad Lyon, Associate Research Professor at the University of Maine and lead author of the new paper published in Environmental Research Letters. "Larger heat waves would also increase electrical loads and peak energy demand on the grid as more people and businesses turn on air conditioning in response."

In addition to heat wave size and exposed population, the authors found that related attributes like duration, magnitude, and cooling degree days (a measure for energy use) could increase substantially.

... The authors explained that the added stress from a continuous heat wave in a region is very different from scattered conditions that add up to an area of the same size.

"If you have a large contiguous heat wave over a highly populated area, it would be harder for that area to meet peak electric demand than it would be for several areas with smaller heat waves that, when combined, are the same size," said Tony Barnston, Chief Forecaster at Columbia University's International Research Institute for Climate and Society and paper co-author.

Open Access: Bradfield Lyon et al, Projected increase in the spatial extent of contiguous U.S. summer heat waves and associated attributes, Environmental Research Letters (2019).
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Tom_Mazanec

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Re: Heatwaves
« Reply #390 on: October 09, 2019, 12:34:17 AM »
Of course those superheatwaves mean more power for air conditioning which releases more greenhouse gas which heats up the atmosphere...
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vox_mundi

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Re: Heatwaves
« Reply #391 on: November 12, 2019, 10:16:59 PM »
US Military on the Front Lines of Extreme Heat
https://www.ucsusa.org/resources/us-military-bases-risk-extreme-heat

Over the next three decades, military bases in the contiguous United States could average an extra month of dangerously-hot days each year when the heat index—or “feels like” temperature—exceeds 100 degrees Fahrenheit.

This analysis calculates the increase in dangerously hot days that the 169 major military installations in the contiguous US would experience in the future under three different climate scenarios.

The analysis features an interactive map highlighting the results; a review of the results by military branch, including top 10 lists; and a spreadsheet with complete data, which can be downloaded below. ...



Statistics reported by the military in April, 2019, show that the number of cases of heat-related illness has risen by about 50% over the past five years.



Historically, only nine major military installations in the US have experienced 30 or more days per year with a heat index above 100°F. By midcentury, with no action to reduce emissions, 100 installations would experience such conditions.

see also: https://blog.ucsusa.org/kristy-dahl/military-extreme-heat?_ga=2.201740435.309088544.1573593017-889870926.1573593017

https://www.ucsusa.org/resources/killer-heat-united-states-0

https://ucsusa.maps.arcgis.com/apps/MapSeries/index.html?appid=e4e9082a1ec343c794d27f3e12dd006d&entry=6
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Heatwaves
« Reply #392 on: November 15, 2019, 03:04:57 AM »
West Australia

A cauldron of extreme heat developing in WA is heading straight for the east coast bushfire zone
Quote
The WA cauldron
The extreme heat brewing in WA could see November records tumble over the weekend.

"We are going to see a number of places away from the west coast getting very warm temperatures and in some parts approaching records for November," Mr Bennett said.  "[It is] all because of a high pressure system that's sitting in the Bight that is going to direct hot north-easterly air over the region."

Perth is in the midst of a hot spell, with a string of four days over 35C expected — a phenomenon that has not happened in November since 1933. The city will cool on Sunday as a trough along the west coast starts to move inland, pushing the heat to eastern parts of the state.  A maximum of 44C is forecast for Kalgoorlie on Sunday, which could topple the city's current record of 43.7C that was reached on November 24, 1923.

The source of the blistering heat, which is being dragged across the southern half of WA and interstate, is the tropical north of WA where monsoon rainfall activity is yet to begin.

"That's something that will continue until we can get some relief in the form of any significant tropical activity," Mr Bennett said.  "There's nothing on the horizon for that, certainly over the next week, so we will probably get these very hot conditions on and off now until we can start to see the monsoon [trough] really building.

"[That] may not typically occur until middle to late December."
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-11-15/wa-hot-air-mass-will-head-to-the-east-coast-bushfire-zone/11705750
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nanning

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Re: Heatwaves
« Reply #393 on: November 15, 2019, 09:43:33 AM »
Are the NSW/QLD bush fires indirectly caused by the recent Antarctic SSW? Influencing wind direction and rainfall?
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Rodius

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Re: Heatwaves
« Reply #394 on: November 15, 2019, 11:04:18 AM »
Are the NSW/QLD bush fires indirectly caused by the recent Antarctic SSW? Influencing wind direction and rainfall?

The Antarctic SSW means Australia will be far more likely to have less rain and higher temperatures until at least Feb. 2020.
What is making it worse is the Indian Dipole is in a phase that also reduces rain and increases temps.

Very basically, what is happening is huge heat waves sweeping over from West to East. PLUS central Australia will simply heat up more than usual when winds are not blowing, so when the wind sweeps in, that extra heat will also hit East Australia as well.

The only thing missing is an El Nino.
The recent fires only happen in El Nino until now.

This next heatwave will not be helpful, more fires are expected, but the key to normal fires and catastrophic fires is wind speed. Something the Met Office can't predict right now.

What is concerning is these heatwaves really shouldn't be happening like this at the moment, this is Jan/Feb stuff.

As an added point of interest, the rainy season has started yet, currently two to three weeks late and no sign of it yet.

nanning

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Re: Heatwaves
« Reply #395 on: November 15, 2019, 04:42:27 PM »
Thanks for the clear explanation and context Rodius.

Quote
Something the Met Office can't predict right now.
So models appear to be limited and I think they are getting further away from describing reality the more chaotic the weather becomes and old assumptions no longer work.

Quote
The only thing missing is an El Nino.

What a future.
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vox_mundi

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Re: Heatwaves
« Reply #396 on: November 18, 2019, 05:35:33 PM »
Gives a whole new meaning to 'cooking off'...

Big Bada Boom; Climate Change May Be Blowing Up Arms Depots
https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/climate-change-may-be-blowing-up-arms-depots/

More intense heat waves can destabilize the components of munitions, particularly where explosives are not properly stored

It was a little before 4 A.M., on an airless morning in June 2018, when the arms depot in Baharka, Iraqi Kurdistan, blew up. Brightening the dawn sky for kilometers around, the blast sent rockets, bullets and artillery rounds hurtling in every direction. Officials say no one was killed. But were it not for the early hour and reduced garrison, the death toll might well have been horrendous.

A year later, another arsenal exploded just to the southwest of Baharka, reportedly destroying millions of dollars’ worth of ammunition amassed during the fight against ISIS. Two similar blasts around Baghdad followed a few weeks after that, killing and wounding dozens of people between them. Before the end of this past summer, at least six munitions sites had gone up in flames in Iraq alone, according to Iraqi security sources.

Each explosion came in the midst of a long, scorching Iraqi summer, when temperatures routinely topped 45 degrees Celsius (113 degrees Fahrenheit). And they all struck just as powerful heat waves ramped up. Explosives experts say such intense heat can weaken munitions’ structural integrity, cause the thermal expansion of explosive chemicals and damage protective shields.

Most munitions are designed to withstand severe heat but only in the relatively short term. If exposed to extreme temperatures and humidity for long enough, a munition can become unstable and may even more or less strip itself apart. ... White phosphorus melts into a liquid at 44 degrees C and can crack a munition’s outer casing as it expands and contracts with the temperature. When explosives leak out, some react with impurities in the air to form dangerously volatile crystals on the exterior that can explode with friction or motion.

... Mortar shells, rockets and artillery rounds are particularly vulnerable because they are powered by propellants that make them liable to launch at the slightest provocation. Chemical stabilizers prevent self-ignition. But for every five-degree-C increase above its ideal storage temperature, the stabilizer depletes by a factor of 1.7, according to the Halo Trust. That depletion accelerates if munitions are exposed to a wide temperature swing over the course of the day. Eventually, there is no more stabilizer—and as a consequence, sometimes no more munitions site either. Most of Cyprus lost electricity in July 2011 when the nation’s principal power station was taken out by 98 shipping containers full of confiscated Iranian munitions that exploded after cooking for months under the Mediterranean sun, eroding their propellants.



“In the military, everything is more difficult when it’s summer,” says an Iraqi artillery officer who gives his name as Ali. “And now summer never ends.”
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blumenkraft

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Re: Heatwaves
« Reply #397 on: December 05, 2019, 09:37:34 AM »
Refugees welcome

grixm

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Re: Heatwaves
« Reply #398 on: December 14, 2019, 08:58:15 AM »
Quote
'Like a furnace': Massive heatwave could roast Australian records

Almost all of mainland Australia will be roasted in a huge heatwave next week, with the mercury likely to nudge 50 degrees in parts of the south.

https://www.smh.com.au/environment/weather/like-a-furnace-massive-heatwave-could-roast-australian-records-20191213-p53jps.html