Hurricane season 2018

[Iceismylife]

https://earth.nullschool.net/#2018/10/23/2100Z/wind/surface/level/overlay=mean_sea_level_pressure/orthographic=-145.54,60.48,794/loc=-148.891,58.120

Is that a hurricane forming? Or is it a GAC?  Do hurricanes even forum that far north?

At 32 km/h (20 miles/hr) it doesn't seem too powerful.

I saw but didn't link to something like 80 km/h  edge of hurricane strength.

[vox_mundi]

https://earth.nullschool.net/#2018/10/23/2100Z/wind/surface/level/overlay=mean_sea_level_pressure/orthographic=-145.54,60.48,794/loc=-148.891,58.120

Is that a hurricane forming? Or is it a GAC?  Do hurricanes even forum that far north?

At 32 km/h (20 miles/hr) it doesn't seem too powerful.

I saw but didn't link to something like 80 km/h  edge of hurricane strength.

Not quite, It still has a way to go ...

Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php

Cat 1 - 119-153 km/h - 74-95 mph - 64-82 kt
Cat 2 - 154-177 km/h - 96-110 mph - 83-95 kt
Cat 3 - 178-208 km/h - 111-129 mph - 96-112 kt
Cat 4 - 209-251 km/h - 130-156 mph - 113-136 kt
Cat 5 - >

It'll be a little choppy - not sailboat weather - but, without any ice in the vicinity, it seems pretty harmless.

[vox_mundi]

Strong Indian Monsoons Steer Atlantic Hurricanes Towards Land
https://www.eurekalert.org/pub_releases/2018-10/agu-sim102318.php

Strong monsoons in the Indian Ocean can induce easterly winds that push Atlantic Ocean hurricanes westward, increasing the likelihood they'll make landfall in the Americas, according to new research.

A new study finds that in years where summer rainstorms in India are stronger, Atlantic hurricanes move further westward towards land. In years where the rains aren't as strong, hurricanes tend to curve northward earlier and fizzle out in the north Atlantic Ocean.

The Indian monsoon season has typically waned by September, but climate projections suggest that under future warming conditions, monsoon precipitation will increase, and the monsoon season could end later in the year. As the climate continues to warm, the monsoon could have an increasing influence on the paths of Atlantic hurricanes, according to the new study.

Previous research has attributed changes in hurricane steering to El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), a periodic fluctuation in sea surface temperature and air pressure in the equatorial Pacific Ocean. Scientists have traditionally relied on the La Niña cool phase of ENSO to make predictions about how strong a particular Atlantic hurricane season will be, but have trouble forecasting the paths of individual hurricanes.

Strong monsoons influence hurricane steering by enhancing the effects of the North Atlantic subtropical high, a center of high atmospheric pressure in the Atlantic Ocean. When the subtropical high increases, stronger winds come from the east and push hurricanes westward.

According to Kelly, La Niña and the Indian monsoon are correlated, but the strength of the monsoon influences the steering of hurricanes independently of La Niña fluctuations, which are responsible for changes in hurricane frequency. In other words, La Niña fluctuations may result in more Atlantic hurricanes, but strong Indian monsoons steer them further westward, making it more likely they will make landfall in the Americas.

It's important to account for the correlation when studying hurricane steering and landfall probability.

"This work untangles La Niña's role on frequency, whether there are more or less hurricanes, from the steering impacts of winds, governed by the Indian monsoon," Kelly said. "La Niña events often happen during a strong monsoon, and they are correlated, but this work helps separate the independent influence of those two phenomena."

Patrick Kelly et al, Shape of Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Tracks and the Indian Monsoon, Geophysical Research Letters (2018). https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029/2018GL080098

[Alexander555]

Another super typhoon.

https://watchers.news/2018/10/23/typhoon-yutu-marianas-october-2018/

[Aluminium]

The strongest typhoon this year.

[Sigmetnow]

Philip Klotzbach: "The 2018 Northeast Pacific (to 180°) #hurricane season has generated a whopping 34.5 major (Category 3+) hurricane days to date - shattering the old seasonal record of 24 major hurricane days set in 2015. #Willa”
https://mobile.twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/1054761428656082944

[vox_mundi]

Hawaiian Island Erased by Powerful Hurricane
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2018/oct/24/hawaiian-island-erased-by-powerful-hurricane

A piece of the United States has been dramatically wiped off the map after an island in Hawaii was washed away by a powerful hurricane.

East Island, a remote spit of gravel and sand that sat atop a coral reef, has vanished after having this misfortune to come into contact with Hurricane Walaka, an intense storm that surged past Hawaii earlier this month.

Scientists have confirmed the disappearance of the 11-acre island after comparing satellite images of the surrounding French Frigate Shoals, part of an enormous protected marine area in the north-western Hawaiian Islands.

[Aluminium]

Pressure decreased below 900 mb near the Mariana Islands.
31W YUTU

As of 12:00 UTC Oct 24, 2018:

Location: 14.6°N 146.2°E
Maximum Winds: 155 kt
Minimum Central Pressure: 899 mb

[vox_mundi]

https://www.npr.org/2018/10/24/660224741/super-typhoon-yutu-strongest-storm-of-2018-slams-u-s-pacific-territory

https://twitter.com/twitter/statuses/1055132947882409984

[Sigmetnow]

Super Typhoon Yutu Impacts: Saipan, Tinian Suffer Widespread Damage; Water and Electricity Could Be Out for Weeks
https://weather.com/storms/hurricane/news/2018-10-24-typhoon-yutu-impacts-northern-mariana-islands

[Aluminium]

Seventh subtropical storm appears in the Atlantic basin.

[Alexander555]

Looks like Yutu will hit the Philippines much further south than Mankhut.

[Sigmetnow]

”Yutu is the fifth Category 4 or 5 tropical cyclone to make landfall in the past 15 months on U.S. soil. No previous decade has had more than four such strikes on American shorelines, making this an outbreak unseen in nearly 170 years of recorded weather history.

Like so many recent hurricanes, Yutu rapidly strengthened just before landfall, going from a Category 1 to a Category 5 in just 36 hours. Waters near Yutu were 2 to 3 degrees Fahrenheit warmer than normal, consistent with the effects of climate change and a key factor in rapidly strengthening storms.”

Typhoon Yutu spurs disaster in a remote U.S. territory
https://grist.org/article/typhoon-yutu-spurs-disaster-in-a-remote-u-s-territory/

[Jim Hunt]

Seventh subtropical storm appears in the Atlantic basin.

Oscar is now a hurricane:

[vox_mundi]

Satellite photos reveal the wrath of Yutu, one of Earth's strongest storms

Super Typhoon Yutu struck the Northern Mariana Islands on October 24, packing maximum sustained winds of 180 miles per hour and gusts higher than 200 mph. This made it the most intense storm to strike U.S. soil since at least 1935, and one of the strongest storms ever measured on Earth.

At one point, the eye of Super Typhoon Yutu completely engulfed Tinian. Meteorologists are combing through the debris for clues as to how high the winds actually got, since no anemometer survived the onslaught to provide accurate readings.

https://images.axios.com/XQuAlXM-rPmh1q42tOvcCwa5yNU=/2018/10/28/1540693705813.gif

https://twitter.com/RyanMaue

[Sigmetnow]

5 Reasons the 2018 Atlantic Hurricane Season Has Been Unusual

Hurricane season still has about a month left to go, but it's already been memorable for several unusual reasons.
Through Oct. 28, the Atlantic has produced 15 named storms, of which, eight strengthened into hurricanes. That's above the 1981-2010 average of 12 named storms and 6 hurricanes per year. ...

https://weather.com/storms/hurricane/news/2018-10-29-2018-atlantic-hurricane-season-unusual

[Sigmetnow]

Mark Sudduth (@hurricanetrack)
11/11/18, 1:43 PM
NHC indicates high chance of development now with tropical wave as it moves north of the Caribbean islands this coming week.
https://twitter.com/hurricanetrack/status/1061690997208477696
<< Still thinking it will turn?
MS:  Yes - only concerns I see would be shipping and cruise interests. Will discuss in detail during my video post tomorrow.

Image below.

[bligh8]

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
700 AM EST Mon Nov 12 2018

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. A vigorous tropical wave located about 200 miles east of the Leeward
Islands is producing a large area of disturbed weather over much of
the western tropical Atlantic Ocean. Shower and thunderstorm
activity has increased and become a little more concentrated this
morning, and environmental conditions are forecast to gradually
become more conducive for the development of a tropical depression
or a tropical storm during the next day or so. The disturbance is
forecast to move westward to west-northwestward for the next few
days, passing near or north of the Leeward Islands, Puerto Rico,
Hispaniola, and the southeastern Bahamas. Interests in these areas
should closely monitor the progress of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

Additional information on this system can be found in High Seas
Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS header
NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and available on the Web at
https://ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.shtml.

Forecaster Stewart

[bligh8]

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
700 AM EST Tue Nov 13 2018

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Disorganized showers and a few thunderstorms moving through the
Leeward Islands are associated with a tropical wave interacting
with an upper-level low.  Strong upper-level winds and interaction
with the islands of the Greater Antilles, while the system moves
generally westward, should inhibit tropical cyclone formation.
Regardless of development, this system is expected to bring locally
heavy rainfall to portions of the Leeward Islands, the Virgin
Islands, and Puerto Rico over the next few days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

Forecaster Roberts

[vox_mundi]

Storms of Our Grandchildren? Something to look forward to ...

Climate Simulations Project Wetter, Windier Hurricanes
https://m.phys.org/news/2018-11-climate-simulations-wetter-windier-hurricanes.html


The computer simulation on the left shows the rainfall intensity of Hurricane Maria under actual conditions. The other images show how much anthropogenic warming already has impacted rainfall intensity (middle) and its projected impact in a warmer climate (RCP8.5). Green areas indicate heavier rain while brown areas mean less rain.   

New supercomputer simulations by climate scientists at the Department of Energy's Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (Berkeley Lab) have shown that climate change intensified the amount of rainfall in recent hurricanes such as Katrina, Irma, and Maria by 5 to 10 percent. They further found that if those hurricanes were to occur in a future world that is warmer than present, those storms would have even more rainfall and stronger winds.

... They found that rainfall could increase 15 to 35 percent in the future scenarios. Wind speeds increased by as much as 25 knots, although most hurricanes saw increases of 10 to 15 knots. "The fact that almost all of the 15 tropical cyclones responded in a similar way gives confidence in the results," Patricola said.

Another interesting finding was that the structure of storms may change where rainfall is more intense in the eye of the hurricane but less intense on the outer edges. "In a warmer world the inner part of the storm is robbing moisture from the outer part of storm," Wehner said.

The study, "Anthropogenic Influences on Major Tropical Cyclone Events," will be published November 15 in the journal Nature.
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-018-0673-2

[Aluminium]

Storm Gaja leaped over India into the Arabian Sea. With 6 cyclonic storms, 2018 North Indian season is the most active since 1998.

[vox_mundi]

Pacific Ocean Typhoons Intensifying More Than Previously Projected
https://phys.org/news/2018-11-pacific-ocean-typhoons-previously.html

Changes to the uppermost layer of Earth's oceans due to rising temperatures are likely causing an increase in intense Pacific Ocean typhoons, suggesting strong typhoons may occur more frequently than scientists project in the coming decades, according to new research.

... A new study published in Earth's Future, a journal of the American Geophysical Union, finds the ocean mixed layer deepened along tropical cyclone tracks by 1.7–2.0 meters from 2002-2015, while other factors changed only marginally. The authors conclude this deepening could be responsible for the uptick in intense typhoons from 1980 to 2015, and they project the increase of intense typhoons will continue at a greater rate than previously projected in the coming decades.

In the new study, Wu and his team examined the contributions of various factors controlling typhoon intensity change, such as sea surface temperatures, the temperature of outward flowing air and water, ocean mixed layer depth, and vertical wind shear, as well as shifts in the tropical cyclone tracks. They used computer simulations to compare each factor with observed tropical cyclone intensities in the western North Pacific basin for each year from 1980-2015.

After quantifying the contribution of each environmental factor to tropical cyclone intensity, they determined that the increase in the proportion of intense typhoons was largely due to a deepening of the ocean mixed layer. This deepening is in turn caused by variations in ocean and atmospheric conditions.

The deepening of the ocean mixed layer is just one of many substantial changes to atmospheric and ocean circulations that have occurred in the western North Pacific since 2000 as a result of climate change, according to the researchers. Deepening of the ocean mixed layer is likely the major reason for the sudden increase in the proportion of intense typhoons in 2001, Wu said.

Because previous studies have not accounted for ocean mixed layer depth in their projections, the authors conclude that future typhoons in the North Pacific may be increasingly intense, and to an even greater degree than previously thought.

Open Access: Liguang Wu et al. Dominant Role of the Ocean Mixed Layer Depth in the Increased Proportion of Intense Typhoons During 1980-2015, Earth's Future (2018).

Abstract:

Over the past decade extensive studies have been undertaken to understand the increasing trend in the proportion of intense tropical cyclones (categories 4 and 5 on the Saffir‐Simpson scale). The trend has been found globally and in some individual basins since the late 1970s. This study quantifies the contributions of various factors that control the proportion of intense typhoons. It is demonstrated that the increase of the proportion of intense typhoons during 1980–2015 is consistent with the corresponding changes in the ocean/atmosphere environment. The proportion change resulted from the temporal variations of the environmental parameters (sea surface temperature, ocean mixed layer depth, outflow temperature, and vertical wind shear), as well as the shifts of tropical cyclone prevailing tracks. The nonuniform spatial distribution of environmental parameters makes the shifts of tropical cyclone prevailing tracks contribute at least half the increase of the proportion of intense typhoons. The deepening of the ocean mixed layer resulting from the temporal variations and track shifts plays a dominant role in the observed increase of the proportion of intense typhoons. Although the maximum potential intensity theory and numerical modeling project an increase of tropical cyclone intensity in a warming climate, the effects of the temporal change of the ocean mixed layer depth and the prevailing track change were not taken into account in the projection. This study suggests that the increase of the proportion of intense typhoons in the western North Pacific basin could be larger than the projection in previous studies.

Plain Language Summary:

The increasing trend in the proportion of intense tropical cyclones (categories 4 and 5 on the Saffir‐Simpson scale) has been found globally and in some individual basins since the late 1970s. Although extensive studies have been undertaken over the past decade, its attribution still is a subject of controversy. This study quantifies the contributions of various factors that control the proportion of intense typhoons in the western North Pacific and found that the increase of the proportion of intense typhoons during 1980–2015 is consistent with the corresponding changes in the ocean/atmosphere environment. The proportion change resulted from the temporal variations of the environmental parameters (sea surface temperature, ocean mixed layer depth, outflow temperature, and vertical wind shear), as well as the shifts of tropical cyclone prevailing tracks. The deepening of the ocean mixed layer resulting from the temporal variations and track shifts plays a dominant role in the observed increase of the proportion of intense typhoons. This study suggests that the tropical cyclone intensification could be larger than the projection since the change of the ocean mixed layer was not taken into account in previous studies.

[Sigmetnow]

U.S.

Houston_First won’t recover from the economic hit of Hurricane Harvey until well into the next decade.

Houston First Tightens Belt To Pay Off Harvey Damage
https://www.houstonpublicmedia.org/articles/news/2018/12/11/315061/houston-first-tightens-belt-to-pay-off-harvey-damage/

[dnem]

U.S.

Houston_First won’t recover from the economic hit of Hurricane Harvey until well into the next decade.

Houston First Tightens Belt To Pay Off Harvey Damage
https://www.houstonpublicmedia.org/articles/news/2018/12/11/315061/houston-first-tightens-belt-to-pay-off-harvey-damage/

And that's if it doesn't get slammed again in the interim.

[pikaia]

Puerto Rico's recovery from Maria.

https://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/images/144371/night-lights-show-slow-recovery-from-maria

[gerontocrat]

More about cyclones in the Southern Hemisphere now.

[Aluminium]

The strongest cyclone in South-West Indian Ocean since 2015/2016 season.

07S CILIDA
As of 18:00 UTC Dec 21, 2018:

Location: 15.6°S 57.7°E
Maximum Winds: 130 kt
Minimum Central Pressure: 932 mb

Source

[vox_mundi]

Landslides Triggered by Hurricane Maria
https://phys.org/news/2019-02-landslides-triggered-hurricane-maria.html

Hurricane Maria hit the island of Puerto Rico on 20 September 2017 and triggered more than 40,000 landslides in at least three-fourths of Puerto Rico's 78 municipalities. In a new article from GSA Today, authors Erin Bessette-Kirton and colleagues write that "the number of landslides that occurred during this event was two orders of magnitude (100 fold) greater than those reported from previous hurricanes."

The authors, from the U.S. Geological Survey and the University of Puerto Rico, evaluate the extent and characteristics of Maria-induced landslides throughout Puerto Rico. They present an assessment of island-wide landslide density, which they compare, in conjunction with rainfall data, to tropical cyclone systems that have affected Puerto Rico since 1960. Additionally, they discuss the conditions specific to landsliding in Puerto Rico and examine the impact of environmental variables (e.g., rainfall, soil moisture, and geology) on observed variations in island-wide landsliding.

In their analysis, they show that the average rainfall from Hurricane Maria in mountainous areas was greater than that of any other hurricane or tropical storm in Puerto Rico since 1960.



Open Access: Erin Bessette-Kirton et al. Landslides Triggered by Hurricane Maria: Assessment of an Extreme Event in Puerto Rico, GSA Today (2019)
................

Didn't the Permian-Triassic extinction event have something similar to this? Different cause, but similar erosion.

Catastrophic soil erosion during the end-Permian biotic crisis
https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2005/12/051202085309.htm

Organic geochemical analyses of sedimentary organic matter from a marine Permian-Triassic transition sequence in northeastern Italy reveal a significant influx of land-derived diagenetic products of polysaccharides. This unique event reflects massive soil erosion resulting from destruction of land vegetation due to volcanogenic disturbance of atmospheric chemistry. The excessive supply of soil materials to the oceans provides a direct link between terrestrial and marine ecological crises, suggesting that ecosystem collapse on land could have contributed to the end-Permian marine extinctions.

https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2010/10/101028113614.htm

... When erosion seven times the normal rate sent large flows of nutrients into the ocean, it created conditions much like the over-fertilization we see today near the outlets of large rivers. As it does today, this condition led to a microbial feeding frenzy and the removal of oxygen -- and life -- from the late Permian ocean.

"If there is a lesson to all this," Algeo said, "it is a reminder that things can get out of whack pretty quickly and pretty seriously. We are used to a stable world, but it may not always be so stable."

Effects of soil erosion and anoxic–euxinic ocean in the Permian–Triassic marine crisis
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4983274/

[vox_mundi]

New Crops Proposed — Hemp and Hops — After Hurricane Michael Devastation
https://www.pnj.com/story/news/2019/02/11/new-crops-proposed-hemp-and-hops-after-hurricane-michael-devastation/2817024002/

TALLAHASSEE — Hemp and hops are being promoted among alternatives for crops wiped out by Hurricane Michael in the eastern Panhandle.

Glen Aiken, director of the University of Florida’s North Florida Research and Education Center, said Monday the need for alternatives has grown as farmers in an eight-county region suffered most of the estimated $1.5 billion hit to the state’s agriculture industry in the October storm. ...

... “I know of an entrepreneur in Kentucky that processes hemp sausage,” Aiken said. “It’s hemp and pork combined. I had some. It’s not the best sausage I’ve ever ate, but it wasn’t too bad either.”

... Hurricane Michael's damage to the agriculture industry came a year after Hurricane Irma ravaged citrus growers in many areas of the state. But Shannon Shepp, executive director of the Florida Department of Citrus, told the Senate committee Monday that 'the worst is over' for citrus growers.

“We do believe the bottom is behind us,” Shepp told the committee. “I like to say this is going to be an upward trajectory. There is a lot of replanting going on and a lot of good success stories coming out of the labs.”

Hate to burst your bubble there, but ...



------------------------------------

Hurricanes Strengthening Faster in the Atlantic; Climate Change is a Big Reason Why
https://www.washingtonpost.com/climate-environment/2019/02/07/hurricanes-are-strengthening-faster-atlantic-climate-change-is-big-reason-why-scientists-say/

A group of top hurricane experts, including several federal researchers at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, published striking new research Thursday suggesting that hurricanes in the Atlantic Ocean have grown considerably worse, and climate change is part of the reason why.

The study focused on rapid intensification, in which hurricanes may grow from a weak tropical storm or Category 1 status to Category 4 or 5 in a brief period. They found that the trend has been seen repeatedly in the Atlantic in recent years. It happened before Hurricane Harvey struck Texas and before Hurricane Michael pummeled the Gulf Coast with little warning last fall. Hurricane Michael, for example, transformed from a Category 1 into a raging Category 4 in the span of 24 hours.

The study, published in Nature Communications, describes its conclusion in blunt language, finding that the Atlantic already has seen “highly unusual” changes in rapid hurricane intensification, compared to what models would predict from natural swings in the climate. That led researchers to conclude that climate change played a significant role.

Open Access: Recent increases in tropical cyclone intensification rates
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-019-08471-z

[vox_mundi]

Brock Long: US Emergency Management Chief Resigns 
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-47234227

US Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) chief Brock Long has announced his resignation, the latest senior name to leave the Donald Trump administration.

In the post since June 2017, he has led the response to several extreme natural disasters, including the heavily criticised operation in Puerto Rico after a devastating hurricane.

Right after he took over, powerful hurricanes Harvey, Irma and Maria hit in quick succession, devastating parts of Texas, Florida and Puerto Rico, where some 3,000 people were killed and residents remained without electricity for months.

Last year, two strong hurricanes, Florence and Michael, hit the south-eastern US. Meanwhile wildfires caused a number of deaths in California.

Mr Long was also involved in a row over the use of government resources.

A report by the Department of Homeland Security's inspector general said Mr Long would have to reimburse the government $151,000 (£117,000) related to costs of vehicles and staff involved in private trips, many of them between Washington and his home in North Carolina. 



-----------------------

Mediterranean Hurricanes Expected to Increase in Strength by End of Century 
https://phys.org/news/2019-02-mediterranean-hurricanes-strength-century.html

[Archimid]

Hurricane Michael Was a Category 5 at Landfall, Only the Fourth in U.S. Records, National Hurricane Center Says

https://weather.com/storms/hurricane/news/2019-04-19-hurricane-michael-upgraded-category-5-us-landfall

After analysis, the National Hurricane Center found Hurricane Michael made landfall at Cat. 5 intensity.
Michael was only the fourth Category 5 landfall on record in the U.S.
Camille in 1969 was the only other northern Gulf Coast Category 5 landfall.
Hurricane Andrew in 1992 was also upgraded to Cat. 5 landfall status after NHC post-analysis.

[Alexander555]

And again the african east coast, a little further north.

[Alexander555]

Accumulated rainfall for the next 10 days, up to 700 mm.

[vox_mundi]

Still Reeling From Idai, Mozambique Faces Another Powerful Cyclone This Week 
https://earther.gizmodo.com/still-reeling-from-idai-mozambique-faces-another-power-1834252575



... Cyclone Kenneth is chugging from the Pacific toward Mozambique. Currently the equivalent of a tropical storm with sustained winds of about 52 mph, the cyclone is expected to strengthen in the coming days. Cyclone Kenneth is forecast to strafe the island nation of Comoros before plowing into Mozambique’s northern coast on Thursday or early Friday.

The island archipelago of Comoros could actually bear the worst impacts of Kenneth, wind-wise. The storm is expected to top out at 103 mph—the equivalent of a Category 2 storm—early on Thursday as it hits Comoros’ main island. That would make it the first hurricane-force storm in recorded history to make landfall in Comoros, according to data kept by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.

The 3,000-foot escarpments on the northern end of the island could help weaken Kenneth a bit before the storm strike Mozambique later that day as a strong Category 1 with winds of up to 92 mph ... But that’s where the marginally good news comparisons end. There are a number of population centers still in this storm’s path according, to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center’s forecast. They include Pemba, a city of roughly 200,000, and Palma, a small town that’s a hub of liquified natural gas exports.

As with Idai, rain is also a major concern. The storm is expected to slowly move inland, a recipe for copious rain and flooding. Up to 20 inches of rain could fall according to Bloomberg, totals that are worrisomely in line with Idai’s forecast.

Any people requiring help in the wake of Cyclone Kenneth will have to rely on a support system still overtaxed by Idai. There are still more than 77,000 internally displaced people and the United Nations reports that even a month after the storm, aid workers are finding communities that have been cut off from the outside world. A cholera outbreak fueled by the Idai’s floodwaters has affected more than 6,000. According to another United Nations report released on Saturday, “[m]any interior roads remain inaccessible, as numerous secondary roads were washed away or cut off.”

[Aluminium]

This topic is about 2018. Hurricane Season 2019.