Drought 2019

[Sigmetnow]

“We’ve decoupled growth from water.  We use the same amount of water that we did 20 years ago, but have added 400,000 more people.” In 2000, some 80 percent of Phoenix had lush green lawns; now only 14 percent does. The city has done this by charging more for water in the summer. Per capita usage has declined 30 percent over the last 20 years. “That’s a huge culture change.”

In Era of Drought, Phoenix, Arizona Prepares for a Future Without Colorado River Water
https://e360.yale.edu/features/how-phoenix-is-preparing-for-a-future-without-colorado-river-water

[rboyd]

Next on the list should be those very green golf courses around Phoenix.

[Klondike Kat]

What do you expect when you build in a desert?

[vox_mundi]

Millions Hit in Manila's 'Worst' Water Shortage   
https://phys.org/news/2019-03-millions-manila-worst-shortage.html

Manila has been hit by its worst water shortage in years

Taps are dry from four to 20 hours per day in the homes of about half of the Philippine capital's roughly 12 million people due to rolling outages driven by a dearth of rain and inadequate infrastructure.

The shortages started hitting late last week, with some areas in eastern Manila seeing the supplies of water into their homes being completely cut off.

... The disruption could last until July when monsoon rains are typically in full swing and would replenish regional reservoirs, one of which is at a two-decade low.

.. The government has admitted that the problem of growing demand for water has long been forecast but they failed to address it due to delays in projects that would expand capacity.

-------------------------------

Philippine Water Shortage Forces Cuts for 6.8 Million People
https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/asia_pacific/philippine-water-shortage-forces-cuts-for-68-million-people/2019/03/14/e3734b34-46bb-11e9-94ab-d2dda3c0df52_story.html

... Water supplies will be cut for at least six hours a day for more than a million households until the rainy season fills dams and reservoirs in May or June, a spokesman for Manila Water Co. Inc., Jeric Sevilla, said Thursday.

The company, one of two government-authorized water suppliers in the densely populated Manila metropolis and nearby Rizal province, said a spike in demand and reduced water levels in a dam and smaller reservoirs in the sweltering summer are the culprit, exacerbated by El Nino weather conditions.

A company advisory said residents in more than a dozen cities and towns would lose their water supply from six to 21 hours a day through the summer months and appealed for public understanding.

... “El Nino is not really the culprit,” Sevilla said. “It’s actually supply and demand.”

-------------------------------

The US Is Only Decades Away From Widespread Water Shortages, Scientists Warn
https://www.sciencealert.com/the-us-is-only-decades-away-from-widespread-water-shortages-scientists-warn

Much of the United States could be gripped by significant water shortages in just five decades' time, according to predictions made in a new study.

From the year 2071 on, scientists say the combined effects of climate change and population increases are projected to present "serious challenges" in close to half of the 204 watersheds covering the contiguous US.

Open Access: Brown, Thomas, et.al., Adaptation to Future Water Shortages in the United States Caused by Population Growth and Climate Change

[Sigmetnow]

MacGyver (@MacGyver_BE) 4/25/19, 3:29 PM
It's April and we're already instructed to conserve water. In Belgium. Crazy.
Water levels haven't recovered from the record drought last year.
https://twitter.com/macgyver_be/status/1121496587983781888
The fact we're even instructed to conserve water is rare. But now in April...

Johan Andersson (@johaan) 4/25/19, 4:18 PM
Same here in Sweden. We haven´t had rain for 3-4 weeks which is highly unusual and worrying.

[Klondike Kat]

Interesting.  Here in the U.S., drought is the lowest since measurements began.

[Sleepy]

Thought everyone was aware of the drought last year in Europe and Sweden. Unprecedented in some of our southern parts with huge impacts on farming. Some farmers had to slaugther animals as well.

April has been much the same so far, rain forecasts dry out, the same today. Just a tiny bit last night and nothing today. Adding a recent reply, (in response to planting trees) it's a cherry pick but it certainly is dry here. Groundwater levels are falling and with last year in fresh memory, I do hope we get some rain soon. A recent study showed that our crop production would be cut in half with further droughts.

Start here? Crappy photo taken yesterday passing a huge crop field.

Hmm, on a second thought that would be a bad idea. We can only feed half of our population here, the rest is imported.

Adding daily precipitation for April below. No need to make it larger, there's not much to see...

[Pmt111500]

Thought everyone was aware of the drought last year in Europe and Sweden. Unprecedented in some of our southern parts with huge impacts on farming. Some farmers had to slaugther animals as well.

April has been much the same so far, rain forecasts dry out, the same today. Just a tiny bit last night and nothing today. Adding a recent reply, (in response to planting trees) it's a cherry pick but it certainly is dry here. Groundwater levels are falling and with last year in fresh memory, I do hope we get some rain soon. A recent study showed that our crop production would be cut in half with further droughts.

<><> Clip <><>

Adding daily precipitation for April below. No need to make it larger, there's not much to see...

As happened here on the other side of Baltic. Too hot later in summer 2018 so some livestock had to be slaughtered prematurely.
This is looking like a pattern emerging. If it goes on for several more years it might force the farmers to wait for rains to sow the fields. This could of course be changed with the general change in the Arctic. I'd rather have cold fronts from Kara and Barents to hit moist warm airs from eastern Atlantic or Black Sea than the heat of last July/beginning of August. Seriously considered letting the grass on yard die. Most here agree, but they also agree on combustion engine powered long-range mobility enhancers, so I don't know what the people here want. Mainly hunkering down with these anomalies

[Sleepy]

Warmer wetter winters and warmer drier summers, might very well be a pattern Pmt.
Reminded me of this one:
https://www.clim-past.net/10/1925/2014/cp-10-1925-2014.pdf

[El Cid]

Yes, I also quoted that article on some other threads. I believe that it is a likely outcome for N.Europe: much warmer all year, and little rain during summer. Mediterranization...

(hint: grow figs

[Pmt111500]

Yes, I also quoted that article on some other threads. I believe that it is a likely outcome for N.Europe: much warmer all year, and little rain during summer. Mediterranization...

(hint: grow figs

Thank you Cid for the hint, I do have some aloes on the windowsill, but I don't think they'll manage the winters yet outside. Considering  recommending peach-trees and central europe pear cultivars for people with better local conditions than mine...

[Sleepy]

Walpurgis night here in two days, let's see how that goes first. A night of song and fire...

[Alexander555]

And Mumbai is not even 1 of the 21 big indian cities that will run out of groundwater next year. https://m.mid-day.com/articles/mumbais-water-stock-lowest-in-three-years/20755190

[El Cid]

Yes, I also quoted that article on some other threads. I believe that it is a likely outcome for N.Europe: much warmer all year, and little rain during summer. Mediterranization...

(hint: grow figs

Thank you Cid for the hint, I do have some aloes on the windowsill, but I don't think they'll manage the winters yet outside. Considering  recommending peach-trees and central europe pear cultivars for people with better local conditions than mine...

Actually, I am from C.Europe and as temperatures have risen 1,5-2 C in the past 30-40 yrs, people have started to grow figs, kiwis, persimmons with success. With some winter protection these are now totally viable here on warmer S-facing hillsides.

As for pears, we have some old cultivars that grew well in the Middle Ages (Little Ice Age), and I am sure those should be OK up north as well. Peaches: If your winter temps don't go below 20-22C, they survive quite well. The real problems come during springtime, because these flower quite early and late frosts can and do kill the fruits/flowers time and again even here...same for apricots.

[Klondike Kat]

Yes, I also quoted that article on some other threads. I believe that it is a likely outcome for N.Europe: much warmer all year, and little rain during summer. Mediterranization...

(hint: grow figs

Thank you Cid for the hint, I do have some aloes on the windowsill, but I don't think they'll manage the winters yet outside. Considering  recommending peach-trees and central europe pear cultivars for people with better local conditions than mine...

Actually, I am from C.Europe and as temperatures have risen 1,5-2 C in the past 30-40 yrs, people have started to grow figs, kiwis, persimmons with success. With some winter protection these are now totally viable here on warmer S-facing hillsides.

As for pears, we have some old cultivars that grew well in the Middle Ages (Little Ice Age), and I am sure those should be OK up north as well. Peaches: If your winter temps don't go below 20-22C, they survive quite well. The real problems come during springtime, because these flower quite early and late frosts can and do kill the fruits/flowers time and again even here...same for apricots.

The warmer winters, especially when combined with longer frost-free days, will allow for the expansion of growing these and other foods.

[Pmt111500]

<cut>

As for pears, we have some old cultivars that grew well in the Middle Ages (Little Ice Age), and I am sure those should be OK up north as well. Peaches: If your winter temps don't go below 20-22C, they survive quite well. The real problems come during springtime, because these flower quite early and late frosts can and do kill the fruits/flowers time and again even here...same for apricots.

Thanks again, we do have at least one cultivar of pear that can manage on sheltered locations in the south. Peaches and apricots might then start to manage on the Baltic islands sheltered. People with big porches are growing some in pots, taking them in for the coldest months. Cherries are nowadays spreading northwards on the mainland. But this is OT. Could use some rain here.

[Archimid]

 If the environment is more favorable for some southern products, is the environment more unfavorable for the crops that have been optimized for centuries?

Can the fellows down south growth the same crops with the same effectiveness?

[Pmt111500]

If the environment is more favorable for some southern products, is the environment more unfavorable for the crops that have been optimized for centuries?

Can the fellows down south growth the same crops with the same effectiveness?

That's a good question, last year was one of the first years of poorer yield by drought in Finland, but I've not heard of other special troubles for the northernmost cultivars.

[Klondike Kat]

If the environment is more favorable for some southern products, is the environment more unfavorable for the crops that have been optimized for centuries?

Can the fellows down south growth the same crops with the same effectiveness?

That's a good question, last year was one of the first years of poorer yield by drought in Finland, but I've not heard of other special troubles for the northernmost cultivars.

Currently, the answer is yes.  Southern areas have been less affected by climate change than the northern ones.  As long as summer temperatures and precipitation remain in the same general range, this will be the case.  Any significant changes may affect the effectiveness.

[El Cid]

I think the major question is the distribution of the rains. Temperature growth in itself does not mean problems, on the contrary, cold places becoming warmer can produce more. we also know, that global warming brings more rains.

However, the distribution of those (future) rains is not very well understood as I see it (models do not replicate neither European nor N.African precipitation patterns even for the Holocene Optimum!). Problems will arise when precipitation patterns change, eg. instead of previously evenly distributed rains a dry/wet season climate arrives. It is essential to prepare for that first by saving water and second by increasing irrigation infrastructure. Even so, disruptions will emerge for sure as change is always hard.

[Klondike Kat]

I think the major question is the distribution of the rains. Temperature growth in itself does not mean problems, on the contrary, cold places becoming warmer can produce more. we also know, that global warming brings more rains.

However, the distribution of those (future) rains is not very well understood as I see it (models do not replicate neither European nor N.African precipitation patterns even for the Holocene Optimum!). Problems will arise when precipitation patterns change, eg. instead of previously evenly distributed rains a dry/wet season climate arrives. It is essential to prepare for that first by saving water and second by increasing irrigation infrastructure. Even so, disruptions will emerge for sure as change is always hard.

I would agree that the rains are a bigger issue than temperature.  Temperature is really only an issue when it exceeds either a maximum or minimum growth limit. 

[Tor Bejnar]

I've seen several maps showing the future boding ill for the Mediterranean Sea area, temperature-wise.  I cannot imagine this will be anything but disastrous for agriculture in the region.  I do not recall 'timing' of these changes, however, a quick internet search reveals this 2019 paper, although the abstract appears to focus on how absolutely horrible things will get under a RCP8.5 scenario.

[vox_mundi]

Chennai's Population: 11,133,854 


-----------------------

Chennai's Largest Source Of Drinking Water Dries Up, Residents Hit Hard   
https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.ndtv.com/chennai-news/chennais-largest-source-of-drinking-water-dries-up-residents-hit-hard-2045155%3famp=1&akamai-rum=off

Chennai: Chennai's largest source of drinking water, Chembarambakkam lake, is bone dry with parched and cracked bed all over. The 3,500 million cubic feet capacity reservoir is left just with storage of silt and slush in the middle largely due to deficit monsoon last year. It was this very lake that overflowed and flooded Chennai in December 2015.

Chennai Metro Water, which supplies drinking water, has cut piped supply by 40 per cent.

... "Before elections we were getting water regularly. Now we don't get regular supply. We get water just for one hour and half the time it's like toilet water. Tankers come only around 10 or 11 am. It's so difficult."

-----------------

Drought-Hit Chennai Has 1.3% of Water in Its Reservoirs, One of the Lowest in 70 yrs 
https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.thenewsminute.com/article/drought-hit-chennai-has-13-water-its-reservoirs-one-lowest-70-yrs-102038%3famp

... According to data from the Chennai Metropolitan Water Supply and Sewerage Board (CMWSSB), as of Sunday, Chembarambakkam Lake has only 1mcft of water compared to its capacity of 3645 mcft, Redhills has 28 mcft compared to 3300 mcft of storage, Poondi contains 118 mcft of water as opposed to its storage of 3231 mcft and Cholavaram has 4 mcft compared to a total capacity of 1081 mcft.

... Chennai had received only 390 mm of rainfall in 2018 as against the normal of 850mm during the Northeast monsoon, when it gets a bulk of its annual rainfall.

 "At this rate these four reservoirs will be empty by July.

Chennai is already battling an acute water crisis despite CMWSSB rationing supplies from January. From the total daily supply of about 880 million litres a day, it has been brought down to 550 million litres a day. On May 15, CMWSSB stopped drawing water from the Redhills lake, which supplies the city 90 million litres-120 million litres a day.

[Shared Humanity]

A human being can survive at most a week without water. If Chennai were to run out of water entirely, large portions of the population would die quickly unless sufficient water was transported to meet minimum requirements or if the population was transported to where water supplies still existed.

The minimum requirement for daily water intake is 3 liters per day. Supporting the population of Chennai would require transporting, at a minimum, 33 million liters of water daily. The largest tanker trucks can hold 44K liters, about 800 tanker truck deliveries per day. Not an impossible task but a logistical nightmare.

There will come a point in time in the not too distant future when we will have an incident in a major urban area where hundreds of thousands of people die of thirst. This will occur in a 3rd world nation or in an underdeveloped region in a developing nation. The western world will blame it on the misuse of water and go about their BAU.

[gerontocrat]

The minimum requirement for daily water intake is 3 liters per day.

A long time ago when I did a few water projects we reckoned an absolute minimum of 15 liters per capita per day for the very poorest of the poor to keep the soul attached to the body.

This was for
- drinking,
- cooking,
- personal hygiene (washing one's body and clothes occasionally)
- keeping the dust down on the dirt or concrete floor.

25 to 30 liters per day would be better, but depended on how far to walk to the standpipe or tankers (which can't get into the alleyways of the katchi abadis / barrios / favelas). Water is heavy to carry.

[Shared Humanity]

The minimum requirement for daily water intake is 3 liters per day.
[/quote
A long time ago when I did a few water projects we reckoned an absolute minimum of 15 liters per capita per day for the very poorest of the poor to keep the soul attached to the body.

This was for
- drinking,
- cooking,
- personal hygiene (washing one's body and clothes occasionally)
- keeping the dust down on the dirt or concrete floor.

25 to 30 liters per day would be better, but depended on how far to walk to the standpipe or tankers (which can't get into the alleyways of the katchi abadis / barrios / favelas). Water is heavy to carry.

Of course your number is more accurate but 3.2 liters was the number I found for staying alive while remaining completely at rest.

[Alexander555]

What would be the result of that, in the long run ? Because many of these countries that have water troubles, are big water exporters. India is one of the biggest water exporters in the world. And we import it, like rice, coffee ,cotton.... It takes like 140 liters of water for 1 cup of coffee, or a few 1000 liters for a t-shirt.

[Tom_Mazanec]

Indian villages abandoned in drought:
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/jun/12/indian-villages-lie-empty-as-drought-forces-thousands-to-flee

[Alexander555]

And further south it's not much better. I think one more bad monsoon and things run out of control. All moving in to these already heavely populated cities. https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/city/bengaluru/crisis-in-full-flow-1900-villages-rely-on-tankers-in-karnataka/articleshow/69763924.cms

[Alexander555]

Cyclone Vayu sucking up al moisture, delay in monsoon. https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/city/hyderabad/t-monsoon-wait-gets-longer-imd-issues-fresh-heatwave-alert-for-state/articleshow/69763332.cms

[Sigmetnow]

Canada

‘That water is going to be gone later in the summer,’ says Dave Campbell of the River Forecast Centre

B.C. drought fears surge as rivers dry up across the province

Extreme hot dry weather has left streams and rivers across the province running low and that's creating drought conditions more commonly seen in late July.

On June 12, temperature records for many places in B.C. were broken — with highs not seen in some spots in a century. Provincial drought monitors say this kind of weather is leaving many waterways at record-low flows, fuelling fears over everything from fire risks to salmon survival.
...
Campbell says this is the fifth year of a pattern of drought that used to be something seen every 10 or 20 years. ...

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/drought-bc-rivers-creeks-running-low-summer-heat-in-spring-temperature-records-1.5174220

[vox_mundi]

India is Running Out of Water, Fast
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2019/06/india-running-water-fast-190620085139572.html

The city of Chennai in Tamil Nadu state is now virtually out of water, while it has been hitting temperatures over 41C for nine of the last 10 days; on June 10, it was 43C. The average for June in the city is 37C and the record 43.3C.

Millions of people have been forced to rely on water from tank trucks in the southern Tamil Nadu, which had a 62 percent shortfall in monsoon rains last year.

... Deficient rainfall during the 2017 northeast monsoon and a failed monsoon in 2018 have resulted in the depletion of groundwater levels and the near drying-up of major water bodies. Four major lakes around Chennai - Chembarambakkam, Poondi, Red Hills and Cholavaram - are almost dry.

While 70 percent of India’s population depends on agriculture, 75 percent of water required for the fields comes from the southwest monsoon. Water storage in reservoirs appears insufficient for irrigation and drinking supplies and boreholes down to the groundwater are commonplace.

The increasing population, increase in irrigation requirements, the need for drinking water and deficient monsoon rains have obvious consequences. Boreholes are drawn on for greater supply and the groundwater level consequently drops even further.

[prokaryotes]

India's ongoing drought affecting many states of this huge country

The drought, which officials say is worse than the 1972 famine [..] The village of Hatkarwadi, about 20 miles from Beed in Maharashtra state, is almost completely deserted.
[..] Groundwater, the source of 40% of India’s water needs, is depleting at an unsustainable rate, Niti Aayog, a governmental thinktank, said in a 2018 report. Twenty-one Indian cities – including Delhi, Bengaluru, Chennai and Hyderabad – are expected to run out of groundwater by 2020, and 40% of India’s population will have no access to drinking water by 2030, the report said.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/jun/12/indian-villages-lie-empty-as-drought-forces-thousands-to-flee

From a 2017 news article..

Chennai's Drinking Water Cut By Half Amid Worst Drought In 140 Years

https://www.ndtv.com/chennai-news/chennai-turns-dry-as-worst-drought-in-140-years-hits-tamil-nadu-1717014

[bbr2314]

There is gonna be nuclear war on the Indian subcontinent IMO... maybe within the next five years?

[Alexander555]

Hindu nationalists are in power. The population keeps growing. The need for more energy will only get bigger, a lot bigger. But i think they are to late. And that's the moment the scenario of a nuclear war steps in.

[prokaryotes]

Re NW: While this is an interesting topic can we have this in a dedicated thread. Would be more interested in learning how India is addressing the drought, what the results are and so on.

[bbr2314]

Hindu nationalists are in power. The population keeps growing. The need for more energy will only get bigger, a lot bigger. But i think they are to late. And that's the moment the scenario of a nuclear war steps in.

It's way too late.. Chennai is already dry, major city after major city could also run dry this year + next.

RE: prokaryotes -- nothing can be done. I guess they could do desal but they have no $. The "day zero" is already here.

The biggest point of tension between India and Pakistan is the waters flowing from the Himalayas... the new Indian dam on the Indus (I think) is in violation of a long-established treaty re: water rights.

What can be done? At this point the only solution is mass depopulation. At first I guess it will happen through "natural" means but as desperation increases, the nukes will fly.

[vox_mundi]

Satellite Images of Parched Water Bodies Highlight Chennai Drought: Before & After
https://www.news18.com/photogallery/india/tamil-nadu-water-woes-before-after-satellite-photos-of-chennais-dry-lakes-2195293.html

https://www.9news.com.au/world/drought-chennai-indias-sixth-biggest-city-is-almost-entirely-out-of-water/fc504a1b-9da7-4508-a353-4c03089d07d2


Chembarambakkam Lake in Chennai before the drought. 2018

Chembarambakkam Lake in Chennai after the drought. 2019


Puzhal reservoir in Chennai before the drought 2018

Puzhal reservoir in Chennai after the drought 2019

[ivica]

Revitalizing #rivers, lakes and ponds is not for knee jerk actions during summer crisis but a long term commitment. Let us understand this is Generational work. -Sg #WaterCrisis

Chennai water crisis: City's reservoirs run dry

https://twitter.com/SadhguruJV/status/1141625581236174848

[vox_mundi]

From the BBC article

... The situation has prompted clashes to break out between residents. Last week, police arrested a man for stabbing his neighbour during a fight over water-sharing in the neighbourhood.

... "The destruction has just begun," an official said. "If the rain fails us this year too, we are totally destroyed." 

[prokaryotes]

More than 500 arrested after protests and clashes as India water crisis worsens https://edition.cnn.com/2019/06/20/india/chennai-water-crisis-intl-hnk/index.html

[kassy]

https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,2352.150.html

Check out post 173 and the indian temperature graphic in there...quite insane. 

[Tom_Mazanec]

Chennai running out of water:
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2019/06/21/climate/chennai-india-water-shortage-images.html?smid=tw-nytclimate&smtyp=cur&mtrref=t.co

[Sigmetnow]

"Each year, India’s June-to-September monsoon season is the most important weather event in the world. Hundreds of millions of people directly depend on the rains. This year, the rains are weeks behind schedule and 39% below normal. It’s a disaster in the making.”
https://mobile.twitter.com/ericholthaus/status/1142511152758493185
Image below.

[Tom_Mazanec]

Will better forecasting help future Chennais?https://www.circleofblue.org/2019/world/reservoirs-in-parched-chennai-city-of-millions-are-dry-can-better-forecasting-avert-future-crises/
More on Chennai:
https://edition.cnn.com/2019/06/22/india/chennai-india-water-crisis-intl/index.html