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Tom_Mazanec

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Re: Wildfires
« Reply #1050 on: December 30, 2019, 04:45:37 PM »
As long as they've got dirty coal to sell the 'top dogs' will be loathe to cross the deniers after filling them full of B.S. for so long?
Bingo. The fossil money it is. Plus, the fossil heads being dependent on it and voting for more.

Regarding the deniers, psychiatry would be more apt than law. Who drives a car but denies steam engine physics obviously has a severe mental disorder.

(Would a Hiroshima style destruction of a whole suburb by a fire thunder storm with a 100km front of raining embers be convincing Australians? Nope. Meanwhile methinks the only effective thing would be nuking their coal mines. Did the Great Cattle Holocaust of 2019 make any impression? Nope. https://edition.cnn.com/videos/world/2019/02/13/australia-cattle-death-flooding-queensland-ja-lon-orig.cnn )

So we put AGW deniers in asylums like the Soviets did those who denied Dialectic Materialism?
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Wildfires
« Reply #1051 on: December 30, 2019, 04:55:38 PM »
Thirsty koala drinks water from passing cyclists
Quote
"We stopped the bikes to help the koala get off the road otherwise they get hit by cars. But the koala walked up to me very quickly, he was obviously very thirsty," Heusler told CNN.

"As I was giving him a drink from our water bottles, he climbed up into my bike. I've never seen a koala move this quickly. They're usually not people animals, they stay up on the trees and people admire them from afar."
https://www.cnn.com/2019/12/30/australia/cyclist-koala-australia-water-intl-scli/index.html
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grixm

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Re: Wildfires
« Reply #1052 on: December 30, 2019, 10:35:27 PM »
As a new day rises in Australia, huge parts of east Victoria is now under emergency warning, with dozens of new and old fires out of control.



Several new emergency warnings has also come into effect in southern NSW, with wind quickly spreading fire in a south-east direction:



Weather conditions today is still grave.
« Last Edit: December 30, 2019, 10:42:59 PM by grixm »

Shared Humanity

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Re: Wildfires
« Reply #1053 on: December 31, 2019, 01:09:55 AM »
"Nearly half a billion animals have died in the Australian bushfires, 5 million hectares burned, at least 11 people dead."

Running for their lives.

https://twitter.com/i/status/1211628654632960001

Rodius

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Re: Wildfires
« Reply #1054 on: December 31, 2019, 01:58:05 AM »
You might as well say the entire South East corner of Australia is on fire.

Mallacoota, a town of 1000 people, and currently with an extra 3000 holidaymakers, is surrounded by fire. Everyone is on the beach because it looks like the entire town is going to be burnt down today.
There was no escape. Both roads out are blocked by fires that popped up via embers overnight.

There is so much going wrong in Victoria, Australia today that it is easier to check out the live blog from the Guardian.

And to think New South Wales are still worse.......
The photo below is taken from Mallacoota where the people are on the beach.

https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/live/2019/dec/31/australia-fires-live-news-nsw-victoria-bushfires-latest-updates

Sigmetnow

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Re: Wildfires
« Reply #1055 on: December 31, 2019, 02:37:55 PM »
NSW RFS on Twitter: "EMERGENCY WARNING - Badja Forest Rd, Countegany (Snowy Monaro LGA) The fire has moved quickly. If you're in Cobargo or Coolagolite, it is too late to leave. Shelter in place. If you're in coastal areas between Bermagui and Tanja, leave now to take shelter on the beach. #nswrfs“
https://mobile.twitter.com/nswrfs/status/1211729418307194884
Map at the link.

"If you're wondering why scant information about #vicfires: 1. There's only one main road -it's closed to all but emergency vehicles. 2. The power is out affecting phones, local radio etc. and can't be put on till AusNet can safely get in 3. Too much smoke & too hot for infrared."
https://mobile.twitter.com/sou_hotwhopper/status/1211774255106383872
Twitter thread at the link.

"Chris Eagle, the incident controller for the Gippsland fires, was just on local radio. He said they do not know how big the fires are or exactly where they have impacted, because it was too hot for the infra-red tracking plane to fly over last night. #gippslandfires"
https://mobile.twitter.com/callapilla/status/1211738201162780672

"The warning language used in the Australian bushfire alerts is incredibly dire: “You are in danger and need to act immediately to survive."
https://mobile.twitter.com/passantino/status/1211811773831008256
Image below.

Bushfires hit NSW South Coast
Multiple bushfires burning at emergency level on New Year's Eve in NSW. The volatile and unpredictable winds have made it difficult to use aircraft to battle the fires that have already had major impact on numerous towns along the South Coast.

https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/bushfires-hit-nsw-south-coast-20191231-h1kqd7.html
Photos. 

"#AustraliaFires #Bushfires Heard on the scanner of several fire engines run over by fire, firefighters trapped and asking for help. Didn't hear the location."
https://mobile.twitter.com/engineco16/status/1211863436893704193
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vox_mundi

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Re: Wildfires
« Reply #1056 on: December 31, 2019, 03:07:54 PM »
Not Stalingrad ... Dunkirk

-------------------------

Thousands Trapped On Australia Beaches Encircled by Fire
https://phys.org/news/2019-12-thousands-australia-beaches-encircled.html
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

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vox_mundi

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Re: Wildfires
« Reply #1057 on: December 31, 2019, 04:55:18 PM »
Oceans Play Role in Australian Bushfires Drama, say Experts
https://dw.com/en/oceans-play-role-in-australian-bushfires-drama-say-experts/a-51841347



Australia's Bureau of Meteorology (BoM) in its latest forecast said "large parts" of the continent run a "high likelihood" of enduring days and nights that are warmer than average, with "below-average" rainfall,  well into 2020.

http://media.bom.gov.au/releases/727/summer-outlook-shows-warmer-and-drier-conditions-likely-to-continue-into-2020/

Downwind, across the Tasman Sea, New Zealand's National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research (NIWA) said the westerly Southern Ocean jet wind stream — between Antarctica and Australia — has changed "dramatically," with resultant "calmer, drier conditions."

In a climate statement earlier this year, BoM said it had recorded average surface water temperatures for January across the Tasman Sea "as a whole" that were 1.66 degrees Celsius (2.98 degrees Fahrenheit) higher than usual.

Last week, a Pacific Ocean surface "heat blob" located between New Zealand and South America and mapped by  University of Maine climatologists in the United States, was described by NIWA as a huge anomaly with regard to sea temperature.



... In a 2019/2020 outlook for the southern hemisphere's summer, published in late November, the BoM's head of long-range forecasts, Andrew Watkins, said the "key culprit" behind the hot, dry weather was a slower than usual weakening of the "Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD)."

The IOD, an oscillation in sea surface temperature differences between the Indian Ocean's western and eastern waters, had seen "cooler than average water pooling off Indonesia," delaying rain-bearing summer monsoon weather, known in northern Australia as the "wet."

The impact, said the BoM in a December 19 special report, was "notably low humidity, which enhances potential evaporation and increases the fire danger."

Stratospheric winds over the Southern Ocean had shifted in October and November 2019, "increasing spring temperatures and decreasing rainfall" over Australia's eastern states of New South Wales and Queensland, said BoM.
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

vox_mundi

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Re: Wildfires
« Reply #1058 on: January 01, 2020, 02:59:13 AM »
This town looks worst than Paradise, CA

------------------------

Video: Mallacoota Bushfire Destruction Revealed as Residents Discover Flattened Homes and Ashes
https://mobile.abc.net.au/news/2020-01-01/mallacoota-bushfire-damage-revealed-as-residents-await-supplies/11835862

The blaze, which is still burning at an emergency level and threatening homes and lives near Cann River, tore through the town yesterday while some 4,000 people waited at the water.

Today, aerial footage shows the town has been made unrecognisable, with buildings along several streets reduced to rubble.

Similar scenes were seen yesterday at Sarsfield and Clifton Creek, where a separate bushfire tore through on Monday.

Quote
... "There's nothing, not a thing. It's all black, smoky, all the trees are burnt out, no leaves left on them. Everywhere that used to have koalas and bell birds and that sort of thing, everything's gone"

https://mobile.abc.net.au/news/2020-01-01/nsw-bushfire-destroys-homes-on-south-coast/11835426

https://mobile.abc.net.au/news/2020-01-01/nsw-vic-bushfire-emergency-follow-live/11835494

... "We've been made aware there's potentially significant stock losses and fencing and pasture and everything that goes with that. It's not just about houses, it's also about those parts of local business, of the agricultural sector, that are so important."

... "We can't move people by road at the moment. there may be a need for a helicopter airlift, there may be a need to use the navy with the amphibious vessel is available to us. They're (ADF) working through those options."

... Crisp said a 'large barge' is being loaded up with food, water and 30,000 litres of fuel in Melbourne and will make its way to Mallacoota. He said the supplies should last for about two weeks.


The massive cloud of smoke from these fires is drifting across the Tasman and has blanketed huge chunks of the south and north islands of New Zealand:

---------------------

https://mobile.twitter.com/CNN/status/1212194248323477505

https://mobile.twitter.com/incident_alert/status/1212186549636366337

Eastern Victoria 28 Dec '19->1 Jan 2020. An indicative visualisation of fire spread using 250,000 satellite data points since 28th Dec.
« Last Edit: January 01, 2020, 03:59:12 AM by vox_mundi »
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

KiwiGriff

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Re: Wildfires
« Reply #1059 on: January 01, 2020, 08:08:29 AM »
Yes the smoke has reached here in NZ.
I am presently on the east coast of northland there is a noticeable dirty brown grey haze.
Animals can be driven crazy by placing too many in too small a pen. Homo sapiens is the only animal that voluntarily does this to himself.
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MrGreeny

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Re: Wildfires
« Reply #1060 on: January 01, 2020, 10:22:02 AM »
Wiki has been updated.

As of 1/1/2020:
5,900,000 hectares burnt =
15,000,000 acres.

Converted to square kilometers that's 60,703km2.
Over 2500 homes have been destroyed.

18 people have been confirmed dead.

Attached a photo of Sentinel 2 satellite picking up fires. I declare this the worst fire season ever to be recorded.
« Last Edit: January 01, 2020, 01:47:17 PM by MrGreeny »
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Tom_Mazanec

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Re: Wildfires
« Reply #1061 on: January 01, 2020, 01:18:16 PM »
Quote
As of 1/1/2019:
5,900,000 hectares burnt =
15,000,000 acres.
I assume that is 1/1/2020?
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MrGreeny

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Re: Wildfires
« Reply #1062 on: January 01, 2020, 01:47:46 PM »
Quote
As of 1/1/2019:
5,900,000 hectares burnt =
15,000,000 acres.
I assume that is 1/1/2020?

Correct, I fixed it.
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vox_mundi

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Re: Wildfires
« Reply #1063 on: January 01, 2020, 02:09:40 PM »
And this is where Australia's rain is going ...

https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,1951.msg242683.html#msg242683

Nine Killed as Jakarta Hit by Worst Flooding Since 2013
https://www.bloomberg.com/amp/news/articles/2020-01-01/overnight-rain-triggers-severe-flooding-in-indonesian-capital
https://dw.com/en/indonesia-jakarta-hit-with-deadly-floods/a-51851607

---------------------------

BOM Weather Forecast for NSW, Vic, SA and ACT Grim as Cold Front Approaches WA
https://mobile.abc.net.au/news/2020-01-01/more-het-bound-for-firegrounds-but-cool-change-to-follow/11835036

- Fire danger is set to ramp up again at the end of this week, with hot weather forecast for SA, the ACT, NSW and Victoria

- Rain is expected to fall over parts of WA, and it's hoped a hot air mass over the centre will begin to disperse

- More promising is the Indian Ocean Dipole's return to neutrality, but forecasts don't show any strong trend towards rain

« Last Edit: January 01, 2020, 02:58:18 PM by vox_mundi »
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grixm

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Re: Wildfires
« Reply #1064 on: January 01, 2020, 04:07:18 PM »
Wiki has been updated.

As of 1/1/2020:
5,900,000 hectares burnt =
15,000,000 acres.

Converted to square kilometers that's 60,703km2.

60 703 km2 ? You mean 5 900 000 hectares = 59 000 km2. The beauty of the metric system.

Sigmetnow

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Re: Wildfires
« Reply #1065 on: January 01, 2020, 04:57:49 PM »
Wiki has been updated.

As of 1/1/2020:
5,900,000 hectares burnt =
15,000,000 acres.

Converted to square kilometers that's 60,703km2.

60 703 km2 ? You mean 5 900 000 hectares = 59 000 km2. The beauty of the metric system.

Compare to California’s worst-ever (modern) wildfire season, in 2018:  “only” 1.8 million acres were burned.
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Wildfires
« Reply #1066 on: January 01, 2020, 04:58:31 PM »
“Dramatic footage shows firefighters driving through a bushfire in Australia as their truck is lashed by flames”
https://mobile.twitter.com/cnn/status/1212025114243555330
Video at the link.

Australia fires: Thousands take refuge on a beach in Mallacoota, Victoria, as wildfires rage
https://www.cnn.com/2019/12/30/australia/australia-mallacoota-beach-fire-intl-hnk-scli/index.html

"Some of the aftermath along the beach + inlet in #Mallacoota . Stairs melted, hundreds of dead birds, ash washed up all along the beach.”
https://mobile.twitter.com/louis1bb/status/1212286284250509313
Photos at the link.  LNG tanks are in the water to prevent them from exploding in the heat.
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Rodius

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Re: Wildfires
« Reply #1067 on: January 02, 2020, 12:11:52 AM »
Others have covered the latest events in Australia.

I just want to post the map showing the extent of the fires in the SE corner of Australia.

Our Prime Minister is still attempting to sell this years fire as just a bad year, it has happened before etc etc.
It is not working..... I can see him being stepped down in the coming months, a victim of stupid leadership in regards to climate change.
Sadly, the 2nd in charge, who is likely to step up, is worse in terms of climate matters and is a nightmare of a human being. He is responsible for making it illegal to protest for climate action and is imprisoning people over it.

Climate and politics is at a stand off here because of these fires.

vox_mundi

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Re: Wildfires
« Reply #1068 on: January 02, 2020, 01:29:48 AM »
So thick you could cut it ..



P2 masks are almost impossible to find in the nation's capital, because the poor air quality has prompted a rush for those wanting a break from the smoke.
 
Other public services in Canberra have also been affected. The Museum of Australian Democracy might have shut its doors:

... Australia Post has suspended postie and van deliveries "until further notice".



... There's a serious concern that weather in the next few days could cause the Corryong fire to merge with the East Gippsland blaze to the south, and a fire in the Victorian alpine region around Bright.

Crews are also keeping an eye on the fire burning across the border in New South Wales, which has gone through areas close to Tumbarumba. Leith McKenzine says if the Corryong and NSW fires burn as predicted, the could "suck each other in" and merge as well.

... Animal welfare officers are going through the fire-ravaged region at the moment. There are an estimated 12,000 cattle and a 6,000 sheep which have survived the fire, but are suffering serious burns and will have to be put down. Some of the injuries are due to the animals being forced to stand on hot ground, melting their hooves.

https://mobile.twitter.com/Nic_Asher/status/1212531565986639872

... Convoys including empty stock trucks heading to communities around Buchan today. There’s been massive ag losses in some areas for farm businesses already suffering in drought. Stock to be shifted ahead of more fire expected this weekend.
« Last Edit: January 02, 2020, 02:14:57 AM by vox_mundi »
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vox_mundi

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Re: Wildfires
« Reply #1069 on: January 02, 2020, 02:18:13 AM »
You know you're buggered when the birds sound like fire sirens ...

https://mobile.twitter.com/isobelroe/status/1212500562102505472

----------------------

The Insurance Council has updated its figures this morning: there have now been 4,299 claims made totalling $297m.

----------------------

... PM Scott Morrison has declined to go on ABC News Breakfast to discuss the fires. That’s according to Michael Rowland, who noted the PM was yesterday entertaining the Australian and New Zealand cricket teams at Kirribilli House.

“Hopefully we will see the prime minister touring some of the fire-ravaged areas over the course of the next day or so,” Rowland told viewers.

The reaction to the fact Morrison is not front and centre during the crisis is continuing.

The Ten Network’s national affairs editor, Hugh Riminton, has written this devastating piece.:


https://10daily.com.au/views/a191119irujf/hugh-riminton-we-are-a-burning-nation-led-by-cowards-20191119

... Arguing the response from Canberra has equated to “nothing”, he concludes:

Quote
... "We are a burning nation led by cowards. It’s time we all got a lot more angry about it."

https://10daily.com.au/views/a191119irujf/hugh-riminton-we-are-a-burning-nation-led-by-cowards-20191119

--------------------------

The prime minister’s office has just told media Scott Morrison will hold a press conference at 1pm in Sydney.

https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/live/2020/jan/02/nsw-fires-live-news-victoria-bushfires-australia-near-south-coast-tourists-latest-updates-
« Last Edit: January 02, 2020, 02:24:44 AM by vox_mundi »
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

vox_mundi

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Re: Wildfires
« Reply #1070 on: January 02, 2020, 02:35:47 AM »


This is the view from the top of the Tasman Glacier NZ today - whole South island experiencing bushfire clouds. We can actually smell the burning here in Christchurch. Thinking of you guys.

Video at link:
https://mobile.twitter.com/MissRoho/status/1212328768078934016

Those fires are over 2000 km (1200 miles) away
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

vox_mundi

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Re: Wildfires
« Reply #1071 on: January 02, 2020, 02:57:41 AM »
https://mobile.abc.net.au/news/2020-01-02/nsw-rural-fire-service-declares-tourist-leave-zone-south-coast/11836730

A "tourist leave zone" has been declared for a 12,235-square-kilometre area between Batemans Bay and the edge of Victoria's northern border. (... this is equivalent to evacuating my entire state - Connecticut - in 2 days)

It is the "largest mass relocation of people out of the region that we've ever seen," NSW Minister for Transport Andrew Constance said.

Dangerous conditions are predicted for the weekend, possibly the same as — or worse than — those on New Year's Eve, when a firestorm devastated villages and major centres.

RFS Deputy Commissioner Rob Rogers said it was a race against the clock to get tourists out before Saturday.

"We have so many fires still burning down there … and quite close to communities as well," he said.

"We won't get containment on those fires before Saturday."

Strong winds, scorching temperatures and low humidity were forecast for Saturday with temperatures set to hit 41 degrees Celcius on the South Coast.

... He acknowledged that many evacuees were struggling to find fuel — long queues were seen stretching out from petrol stations around Batemans Bay.

"We're trying to get out of here as the authorities want us to leave," said holidaymaker Tracey Feeney.

"So we're just waiting for all their garages to open up, they've apparently got no power still."

... The evacuation order comes as the RFS revealed 382 homes were destroyed by the South Coast fires, believed to have started on New Year's Eve.

It brings the total number of homes lost this bushfire season to 1,298.
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

Stephen

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Re: Wildfires
« Reply #1072 on: January 02, 2020, 06:17:39 AM »
I've traveled that area extensively and I can tell you that there are only 2 or 3 main roads in and out.  The Pacific highway runs along that coast and there's 1 or 2 roads inland.  But here's the catch, south of that border lies Mallacoota and you've all probably seen the pictures of the fires down there.  So that leaves the northern route which it self has been closed a few times.

Of course we still hear the usual denier rhetoric, along the lines of "Australia has always had drought and bushfires", but thankfully those voices haven't received as much attention and more articles are being published about the influence of climate change.

Deniers arguments along the lines of "but we had a long drought in the 1800s" always ignore the fact that droughts are now more severe for the same time-span.  A 3 year drought in the 2010s is now much worse than a 3 year drought was in the 1910s because evaporation rates are so much higher because overnight average temperatures are higher, among other factors.

The last big La Nina (which brings warmer water and heavy rain to Australia's east coast) was only 10 years ago. 

If you think I am off-topic by talking about drought then remember that these fires are fueled by very dry eucalypt trees.  Long droughts dry them out such that they are much more susceptible to fire.  Forest floor litter dries to a perfect kindling because it takes a bit of rain to encourage the fungi and microbes to break down the dead leaves and twigs.

The ice was here, the ice was there,   
The ice was all around:
It crack'd and growl'd, and roar'd and howl'd,   
Like noises in a swound!
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vox_mundi

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Re: Wildfires
« Reply #1073 on: January 02, 2020, 08:18:54 AM »
Thanks Stephen,  the situation sounds like chaos on the ground

This is way worse than a hurricane evacuation. Why doesn't the PM call out the military or something.

-------------

https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/live/2020/jan/02/nsw-fires-live-news-victoria-bushfires-australia-near-south-coast-tourists-latest-updates-

... The pressing concern at the moment is traffic. Thousands of people have taken to the roads, ordered to get out of the south coast regions before Saturday.

But it’s gridlock with road closures, grass fires and other delays. We are getting reports and seeing vision of cars at standstill, with the main pinchpoints seeming to be at Ulladulla to the north and Cooma to the south-west.


... Fuel shortages and long queues are hampering efforts to escape NSW and Victorian bushfire-hit areas.

Restocking tanks is also an issue, with emergency services due to escort petrol tankers into Moruya on Thursday night.

A 50-litre limit per person was imposed at one Moruya petrol station when it faced running dry within hours with a line stretching more than a kilometre.

Drivers had already bought 55,000 litres in half a day of trade - double January’s daily average.

Further south, some sites at Merimbula, Bairnsdale and Lakes Entrance have run out of either petrol or diesel.

From interview on ABC

... As I was going from Cooma to Bega, they have told everyone to get out, get out of the south coast, but there doesn’t seem to be a deal of organisation.

... there is one pump I think between Cooma and Bega. (117 km)

I am hoping to God all those people have full tanks.

... The phones went down, the power went out, those sorts of things. You are sitting in a blackout.

... At ground level, you are not just sitting in traffic with your engine running and no petrol stations on that trip, but the smoke is thick.

... There was hundreds of thousands of cars... They are towing boats, and I have no idea how anyone in these little towns, getting traffic through, I stopped at an RFS checkpoint and told them and they said they were aware of it, the police are too stretched.

I did hear the prime minister on the radio talking about getting the military out, but I didn’t see anyone.

I saw one police car the entire trip. I think people are going to be stuck on the mountain all night tonight trying to get home.

It strikes me as crazy. You tell an entire coastline to evacuate by one mountain road with next to zero traffic management.

-----------------------------

PM Scott Morrison: .... Be patient.

-----------------------------

https://mobile.twitter.com/davidfarrier/status/1212601693151485952

2020.
you fucking idiots in charge who don’t get this: global warming is real




-------------------

https://mobile.twitter.com/BernieSanders/status/1212525268721688577

What is happening in Australia today will become increasingly common around the world if we do not aggressively combat climate change and transform our energy system away from fossil fuels. The future of the planet is at stake. We must act.
« Last Edit: January 02, 2020, 08:34:17 AM by vox_mundi »
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Niall Dollard

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Re: Wildfires
« Reply #1074 on: January 02, 2020, 11:49:01 AM »
Sat pic 1st January 2020.

NevB

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Re: Wildfires
« Reply #1075 on: January 02, 2020, 02:10:26 PM »
Anything is possible in the next two days

https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2020/jan/02/australia-bushfires-tens-of-thousands-stranded-while-attempting-to-flee

<Edit> Tens of </Edit>Thousands are trying to leave and the situation is chaotic, power and phones are down. Fuel is hard to get and the petrol stations can't take EFTPOS. The disorganisation is looking dangerous.

Quote
We have no capacity to contain these fires … the fires are going to do what they are going to do, and people have to get out of that area,” NSW Rural Fire Service deputy commissioner Rob Rogers said.

This isn't really a surprise but still shocking seeing it happen.

<Edit>More details here:
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2020/jan/02/australia-bushfires-tens-of-thousands-stranded-while-attempting-to-flee</Edit>

« Last Edit: January 02, 2020, 03:02:15 PM by NevB »

vox_mundi

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Re: Wildfires
« Reply #1076 on: January 02, 2020, 05:03:19 PM »
Aerosol optical depth at 550 nm (provided by CAMS, the Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service)

https://atmosphere.copernicus.eu/charts/cams/aerosol-forecasts?facets=undefined&time=2020010100,24,2020010200&projection=classical_global&layer_name=composition_aod550


https://twitter.com/CopernicusEMS


True color wide view acquired by #Sentinel3 this morning at  23:21 UTC (11:21 local)
The image is focused on southern #NSW and #Victoria because the area up north was cloudy
https://twitter.com/hashtag/Sentinel3?src=hash


This Himawari satellite picture shows smoke (brown colour) from the #AustraliaFires extends thousands of kilometres into the Pacific, well past New Zealand.
Meanwhile, the fires continue: More smoke pours off the Australian coast.
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

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gerontocrat

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Re: Wildfires
« Reply #1077 on: January 02, 2020, 07:56:41 PM »
A social media opportunity for Australia's Prime Minister goes somewhat awry..

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-australia-50973232
Australia fires: Angry residents berate PM Morrison in blaze-ravaged town

Quote
Australia's PM Scott Morrison had to cut short a visit to a town ravaged by fire after angry locals heckled him over the government's response.

Locals said he had done very little to help Cobargo in New South Wales (NSW), where two people died earlier this week and many lost their homes.

The PM said he was "not surprised people are feeling very raw".

When the blah-blah had to stop he was tested, and he was found wanting
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vox_mundi

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Re: Wildfires
« Reply #1078 on: January 02, 2020, 08:27:51 PM »
^ He's lucky he's not in Bolivia ...

Evo Morales and his team leave city to avoid violent demonstration by miners throwing dynamite
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-latin-america-12427057
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Rodius

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Re: Wildfires
« Reply #1079 on: January 03, 2020, 02:06:23 AM »
Another screenshot of the map I provided above.
I had to include a large area to capture the growing fires.

Also, this is just for Victoria, not NSW. If you can just imagine the entire coastline above VIC border as being on fire, that would be about right.
Towns are being evactuated as they are expected to burn down.

Today, in Melbourne (where I live), there is a smoke haze reducing visibility to about 1 km.

This is a link to the live feed. Tomorrow (Saturday) is expected to be worse than the New Year period.

As an aside, the Prime Minister is doing a tour of the region and being heckled and booed out of every town he visits. Politics is about to get very interesting here because of this event, it might be enough for the country to actually do something about our terrible emissions rates.

https://www.theage.com.au/national/victoria/state-of-disaster-declared-in-face-of-unprecedented-fire-danger-20200102-p53ogn.html

vox_mundi

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Re: Wildfires
« Reply #1080 on: January 03, 2020, 02:46:09 AM »


https://twitter.com/ABCcameramatt/status/1212822371070988288
Video of the road out. Zero visibility on Snowy Mts Hwy just north of Nimmitabel. Traffic crawling.
« Last Edit: January 03, 2020, 02:54:46 AM by vox_mundi »
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vox_mundi

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Re: Wildfires
« Reply #1081 on: January 03, 2020, 04:55:18 AM »
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

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Sailaway

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Re: Wildfires
« Reply #1082 on: January 03, 2020, 02:47:55 PM »
Today Canberra had improved air quality - only 11 times safe levels. That's an improvement on the 23 times levels of the other day. The fire forecast for tomorrow is horrendous but as the authorities have admitted the models are broken with the fire grounds creating their own weather. Fire has already jumped the Clyde river near Batesmans Bay 24 hours earlier than predicted.

I think the smoke that I have tasted for weeks maybe just a relativity benign taste of our future.

vox_mundi

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Re: Wildfires
« Reply #1083 on: January 03, 2020, 05:22:37 PM »
Kangaroo Island Bushfire Emergency Sees Tourist Lodges Ravaged as Firefighters Battle 'Unstoppable' Blaze'
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-01-03/cfs-battles-kangaroo-island-fire-amid-extreme-heat/11838600

The Kangaroo Island fire has been described as "virtually unstoppable" and the Country Fire Service (CFS) has issued bushfire warnings for the entire 4,400-square-kilometre island.

The CFS says the Ravine fire is burning towards the town of Parndana, but also has the potential to burn towards Kingscote, Kingscote Airport, American River and the eastern end of the island.

The distance from Flinders Chase National Park, where the fire is burning on the western end of the island, to the main town of Kingscote in the east, is about 85 kilometres.

Designated last-resort refuges have been set-up at Kingscote Oval, Penneshaw Oval and the American River Wharf Area if the situation escalates overnight.

... Some international context: In terms of area, Kangaroo Island is three times the size of London - (over 1000km2), bigger than Rhode Island, and just over three times the size of Phoenix, Arizona. It’s not just some tiny island off SA’s mainland.

---------------------------


Immense scale of Victorian bushfires revealed with thermal camera – video

---------------------------


Fire tornado with thermal camera – video

... These systems begin to dominate the large scale fire dynamics. They lead to extreme hazard and control problems. In size, they average 100 to 1,000 feet in diameter and have rotational velocities up to 90 MPH.

In addition, they can last for an hour or more and have been known to move across the terrain for miles. You do not want to be anywhere near a fire tornado. They can be deadly.

A large fire tornado was one of the primary causes of the entrapment and death of FPI1 on July 26, 2018. The fire tornado was a large rotating fire plume that was roughly 1000 feet in diameter at its base. tornado Fujita scaleWinds at the base of the fire tornado reached speeds in the range of 136-165 mph (EF-3 tornado strength), as indicated by wind damage to large oak trees, scouring of the ground surface, damage to roofs of houses, and lofting of large steel power line support towers, vehicles, and a steel marine shipping container within ½ mile of the entrapment site. The strong winds caused the fire to burn all live vegetation less than 1 inch in diameter and fully consume any dead biomass. Peak gas temperatures likely exceeded 2,700 °F.

-------------------------------

We Are Seeing the Very Worst of Our Scientific Predictions Come to Pass in These Bushfires
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/jan/03/we-are-seeing-the-very-worst-of-our-scientific-predictions-come-to-pass-in-these-bushfires

--------------------------------

Wildlife Ravaged by Australia Fires Could Take Decades to Recover
https://phys.org/news/2020-01-wildlife-ravaged-australia-decades-recover.html

A University of Sydney study estimates that 480 million animals have been killed in just the state of New South Wales (NSW) since September 2019, and according to a statement released Friday the authors said the "highly conservative" mortality calculations could mean the toll could be "substantially higher".

In order to reach the figure, the researchers cross-referenced estimates of mammal population density in NSW with areas of vegetation known to have been scorched to work out the death toll, which includes mammals, birds and reptiles, but not insects, bats or frogs.

"The true loss of animal life is likely to be much higher than 480 million," the statement said.

Professor Andrew Beattie from Macquarie University near Sydney told AFP he believes the death toll of animals nationwide could be in the billions, "if you think of mammals, and birds, and reptiles, amphibians and say the larger insects such as butterflies".

... "We can be pretty sure that in large parts of these very expansive fires, most of the wildlife will be dead," the emeritus professor from the department of biological sciences said.

"The flora and fauna will be gone, and that includes the smaller animals which form the food chain for the bigger ones, which people often don't think about."

... "You've got federal politicians with very little knowledge of the environment, which is, as we are now discovering 'the real world', and hence have not perceived the oncoming catastrophes."
« Last Edit: January 03, 2020, 06:24:46 PM by vox_mundi »
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Wildfires
« Reply #1084 on: January 03, 2020, 08:18:11 PM »
New Zealand glaciers turn brown and 'could melt faster because of Australia's bushfires'
https://www.cnn.com/2020/01/02/australia/new-zealand-glaciers-australia-bushfire-intl-scli/index.html

Photo below from:
https://twitter.com/Rachelhatesit/status/1212151684509519872
Westland District, New Zealand
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Rodius

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Re: Wildfires
« Reply #1085 on: January 04, 2020, 12:26:13 AM »
The updated map of fires for Victoria.
There are comparative maps up the thread.
NSW is burning up the coast, still almost the entire coast.

The fires are still spreading out everywhere. I am not really sure what to write anymore.

Today (Saturday) is going to see an increase in the spread of fires not just in VIC but in NSW as well. Sydney is having its borders under threat as the fires are jumping across rivers... fire crews are defending the border so far.

Kangaroo Island (about 1000km2) is having significant fire storms today. They are evacuating entire towns immediately.
https://www.news.com.au/technology/environment/climate-change/all-hell-is-breaking-loose-massive-fire-threatens-all-of-kangaroo-island/news-story/6fbad55c97d304431786471fa20c88dd

Here is a wrap up of the situation in VIC and NSW
https://www.news.com.au/technology/environment/major-roads-closed-as-thousands-flee-nsw-and-victoria/news-story/5884afe32359429af35f80b3498f7b6c




KiwiGriff

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Re: Wildfires
« Reply #1086 on: January 04, 2020, 07:02:56 AM »
The Bairnsdale incident controllers are asked how long they think the fires can continue to burn for?

A long time, is the answer.

Quote
Based on the best estimate, we would say at least another eight weeks ... we are only at the beginning of summer. In a normal year, we would start to see the fire season kickoff in a big way around early January and we’re already up towards a million hectares of burnt country. We would expect – we are in for the long haul. This is a marathon event and we expect to be busy managing these fires for at least the next eight weeks.

Pyrocumulus downburst at Cabramurra Weather station  #NSWfires

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sidd

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Re: Wildfires
« Reply #1087 on: January 04, 2020, 10:19:14 AM »

vox_mundi

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Re: Wildfires
« Reply #1088 on: January 04, 2020, 10:26:07 PM »
https://mobile.abc.net.au/news/2020-01-05/fires-in-nsw-and-victoria-still-burning-live-blog/11841090

RFS Deputy Commissioner Rob Rogers has given us an idea of the scale of the bushfires that they're fighting:

... "I don't know the length but I imagine there would be more than 15,000 kilometres of fire edge we've got to try and get containment on."

Commissioner Rogers said the RFS will use more favourable weather today to try and contain more than 150 fires in New South Wales.

----------------------

Working Conditions Last Night ...

(BOM) - Yesterday this temp set off alarms. Seems Cabramurra AWS ended up between intense pyrocumulonimbus over a fire on one side & new ignitions on the other..& this is the result.



69.8°C. (157.6 °F)

https://mobile.twitter.com/BOM_NSW/status/1213549427710971904

Penrith hit 48.9C just after 3:00pm, a high that surpassed the all-time temperature record for that station, 47.3C, by more than a degree.
 
The ACT had its own records to break as well. Canberra Airport reached 43.6C shortly before 3:00pm, which surpassed the ACT's previous record at the Old Acton Station, which reached 42.8C in January 1939.

---------------------------
New South Wales is facing a major electricity supply crisis due to bushfires.
 
The state government has confirmed fire has taken out two electricity substations in the Snowy Mountains region.
 
The destruction has resulted in supply issues in the state.

---------------------

UPDATE: Damaging Winds averaging 55 to 65 km/h, with gusts in excess of 90 km/h, occurring along coastal fringe of Illawarra & Sydney Metro districts tonight. Locations which may be affected include coastal suburbs of Sydney Wollongong Port Kembla & Kiama.

The southerly change is continuing to roar its way north bringing strong gusty winds. You can actually see it here as that sharp, yellow, arrowhead shape just at the radar cross hairs. Winds are strong enough to have triggered warnings
Video:
https://mobile.twitter.com/BOM_NSW/status/1213404198668324864
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blumenkraft

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Re: Wildfires
« Reply #1089 on: January 05, 2020, 09:06:29 AM »
From /r/Australia, a report on the effects of climate change back from 2007. Can anyone still argue the models don't match reality?


KiwiGriff

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Re: Wildfires
« Reply #1090 on: January 05, 2020, 09:49:35 AM »
Apocalyptic
I am over 2,000 km across open ocean from the fires and have been in twilight all day from the smoke.
Tomorrow is projected to be worse.
These fires will impact  the climate on a global scale.



Animals can be driven crazy by placing too many in too small a pen. Homo sapiens is the only animal that voluntarily does this to himself.
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GeoffBeacon

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Re: Wildfires
« Reply #1091 on: January 05, 2020, 12:13:08 PM »
CMIP models

A few years ago scientists at the UK Government department, DECC, told me

Quote
1. Am I correct in thinking that some of these feedbacks were not used in the models that calculated the “remaining carbon budgets” – as used in the IPCC AR5? [That’s the CMIP5 models]
Quote
That’s correct, the models used vary in what they include, and some feedbacks are absent as the understanding and modelling of these is not yet advanced enough to include. From those you raise, this applies to melting permafrost emissions, forest fires and wetlands decomposition.

I have been told some of CMIP6 models do include these feedback effects. Is there a succinct summary of this progress?

Wildfires

Recently Copernicus.eu have asked Did 2019 really bring us an unusual number of wildfires? and said:

Quote
In total, 6.735 megatonnes of carbon dioxide were released into the atmosphere by wildfires between 1 January and 30 November 2019. This value fits with the gradual declining trend in global total fire emissions since 2003, related to changing land management practices and use of fire in the tropics.

(Being data only up to 30th November 2019, the “gradual declining trend in global total fire emissions” may be outdated.)

For me this raises an interesting question about climate models. Consider

1. Climate change increases the propensity of wildfires through local droughts and weather conditions.

2. “Land management practices and the use of fire in the tropics” decrease the global total fire emissions.

Wildfire questions

What sort of “land management practices” is meant here?

How do climate models separate these two effects?

If they are separated, what policy lessons can be learnt?
e.g. Does it help to cut down forests so they cannot burn? &etc.?

Is there something wrong with the assessment from Copernicus?

Other feedbacks

Any other important feedbacks missing?
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Tom_Mazanec

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Re: Wildfires
« Reply #1092 on: January 05, 2020, 12:50:10 PM »

This video is already 404.
Do you have an alternate source?
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Florifulgurator

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Re: Wildfires
« Reply #1093 on: January 05, 2020, 01:13:35 PM »
gradual declining trend in global total fire emissions
Some good news after all? Not really, but I can't help an optimistic feeling creeping up...

Here is the result from Arora & Melton 2018
https://www.carbonbrief.org/co2-emissions-from-wildfires-have-fallen-over-past-80-years-study-finds resp. https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-018-03838-0
It looks a bit fishy: Are the spikes due to the model?

(LUC = land use change)

------------------
More "good news": In the long run vegetaion fires can sequester carbon by producing biochar (aka pyrogenic carbon).
https://www.eurekalert.org/pub_releases/2019-08/uoea-hwt080519.php
Quote
a new Nature Geoscience study quantifies the important role that charcoal plays in helping to compensate for carbon emissions from fires. And the research team say that this charcoal could effectively 'lock away' a considerable amount of carbon for years to come.

In an average year, wildfires around the world burn an area equivalent to the size of India and emit more carbon dioxide to the atmosphere than global road, rail, shipping and air transport combined.

[...]

The researchers say this pyrogenic carbon needs to be considered in global fire emission models.

"Climate warming is expected to increase the prevalence of wildfires in many regions, particularly in forests. This may lead to an overall increase in atmospheric CO2 emissions from wildfires, but also an increase in pyrogenic carbon storage. If vegetation is allowed to recover naturally then the emitted CO2 will be recaptured by regrowth in future decades, leaving behind an additional stock of pyrogenic carbon in soils, lakes and oceans.

"We expect any additional pyrogenic carbon to be trapped for a period of centuries to millennia, and although it will eventually return to the atmosphere as charcoal degrades, it is locked away and unable to affect our climate in the meantime.

[...]
(my emph.)

Problem is: If the fires get too hot and too frequent, the biochar from previous fires plus the forest soil will burn away. Also, as seen in California, heavy rain can wash away the ashes, leaving the ground depleted of nutrients. Rinse, repeat, and no forest will regrow. You can forget much of California's forests.


.............
..............
So we put AGW deniers in asylums like the Soviets did those who denied Dialectic Materialism?
A very false equivalence. Dialectic Materialism is just a philosophy, no evidence based science.

In serious psychiatry patients only get locked up when they are a danger to others or themselves. E.g. Australia's PM Scott Morrison certainly is in that category.
« Last Edit: January 05, 2020, 01:30:13 PM by Florifulgurator »
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MrGreeny

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Re: Wildfires
« Reply #1094 on: January 05, 2020, 05:47:39 PM »
Compared October 3rd 2019 vs January 3rd 2020 via NASA EODIS Worldview for East-South East Australia. Left is October, right is January.

Also a 3D Visualization of Australia made by NASA Satellite data between 05/12/19 - 05/01/20, credit goes to Anthony Hearsey.

These are indeed some dark times.


« Last Edit: January 05, 2020, 05:55:50 PM by MrGreeny »
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Wildfires
« Reply #1095 on: January 05, 2020, 07:36:04 PM »
Fire Aviation on Twitter: "Australian Prime Minister says four more large air tankers will be ordered. Two of them will be DC-10s. #wildfires #AustraliaFires #bushfires”
https://mobile.twitter.com/fireaviation/status/1213610301326798849
First image below.

"If you overlaid what’s happening in Australia right now on the US”
https://mobile.twitter.com/sci_phile/status/1213703245794693120
Second image below.

Twitter thread compilation:
“I loathe putting up another series of depressing fire maps - but after a chat with @jmorganecology, I made these showing the extensive fires that have occurred in the Victorian Alps since 2003, which have been added to this last few days. ...”
https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1213714144454512641.html
Third image below; more at the link.
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ArcticMelt2

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Re: Wildfires
« Reply #1096 on: January 05, 2020, 09:28:58 PM »
Was Australia's record-breaking warmest year only in the southwestern part?



https://twitter.com/zlabe

Quote
Just to reiterate, 2019 was the hottest (and driest) year on record for Australia... 📈


Tom_Mazanec

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Re: Wildfires
« Reply #1097 on: January 05, 2020, 11:35:28 PM »
Was Australia's record-breaking warmest year only in the southwestern part?



https://twitter.com/zlabe

Quote
Just to reiterate, 2019 was the hottest (and driest) year on record for Australia... 📈



I'm confused.
Did you mean the southeastern part?
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ArcticMelt2

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Re: Wildfires
« Reply #1098 on: January 05, 2020, 11:55:03 PM »
I'm confused.
Did you mean the southeastern part?

Yes, sorry.

Rodius

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Re: Wildfires
« Reply #1099 on: January 06, 2020, 01:57:41 AM »
I'm confused.
Did you mean the southeastern part?

Yes, sorry.

It was the entire country.
This article paints a grim picture..... the short story is is has been very hot for the last ten years, and this is basically our new normal.

https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2020/jan/02/2019-australia-hottest-year-record-temperature-15c-above-average-temperature