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Sigmetnow

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Re: Wildfires
« Reply #1200 on: January 28, 2020, 08:11:19 PM »
It’s not over.

Quote
Martin Ollman (@martin_o) 1/28/20, 5:36 AM
RAW timelapse footage of the last few hours - Orroral Valley fire -Out of control #canberra #australia #AustraliaBurning #AustralianFires
https://twitter.com/martin_o/status/1222106288584216578
2 minutes of timelapse footage at the link.
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

grixm

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Re: Wildfires
« Reply #1201 on: January 28, 2020, 08:16:46 PM »
And it will get worse over the next few days. Another burst of 40+ C weather is coming to the area.

Rodius

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Re: Wildfires
« Reply #1202 on: January 28, 2020, 11:23:09 PM »
And it will get worse over the next few days. Another burst of 40+ C weather is coming to the area.

Feb and Mar are the worst times for fires. With Feb being the one to watch.

The coming heatwave is likely to be the first of three over the coming month. The fires wont be out until April, maybe even May.
They should be out in March.

Sailaway

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Re: Wildfires
« Reply #1203 on: January 29, 2020, 10:30:32 AM »
It’s not over.

Quote
Martin Ollman (@martin_o) 1/28/20, 5:36 AM
RAW timelapse footage of the last few hours - Orroral Valley fire -Out of control #canberra #australia #AustraliaBurning #AustralianFires
https://twitter.com/martin_o/status/1222106288584216578
2 minutes of timelapse footage at the link.

The fire was started by the landing lights of a helicopter!!

The fire shown in the video is (according to ACT Emergency Services) spot fire 5 km ahead of the main fire front. The fire front is about 8km from the southern suburbs and about 13 km from my house. The problem is that if the fire comes out of the trees it can burn across grassland at about 17 km per hour.

Rodius

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Re: Wildfires
« Reply #1204 on: January 29, 2020, 11:06:29 AM »
It’s not over.

Quote
Martin Ollman (@martin_o) 1/28/20, 5:36 AM
RAW timelapse footage of the last few hours - Orroral Valley fire -Out of control #canberra #australia #AustraliaBurning #AustralianFires
https://twitter.com/martin_o/status/1222106288584216578
2 minutes of timelapse footage at the link.

The fire was started by the landing lights of a helicopter!!

The fire shown in the video is (according to ACT Emergency Services) spot fire 5 km ahead of the main fire front. The fire front is about 8km from the southern suburbs and about 13 km from my house. The problem is that if the fire comes out of the trees it can burn across grassland at about 17 km per hour.

Given the forecast for tomorrow, if I was you, I would bug out now.
Hope to hear from you in a few days with your update.

Florifulgurator

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Re: Wildfires
« Reply #1205 on: January 29, 2020, 04:01:55 PM »
The fire was started by the landing lights of a helicopter!!
Now that sounds pretty weird. What stupid lamp would radiate such heat? Or was it mounted at the skid and touched the grass?

Maybe it was pure coincidence, as there was some fire around already. Perhaps the Murdoch papers have run out of arsonists?

Quote

[...]
The landing light was being used because of the smoky conditions. [...]
He said the crew were lucky to escape with their lives.
"The helicopter came down to land and within 12 seconds the aircraft was almost engulfed in flames,"
[...]
"Defence can confirm that the issue outlined in the 2016 ANAO Major Project Report with respect to the MRH-90 Taipan landing lights, did not contribute to the incident in the Orroral Valley," she said. [...]
https://www.canberratimes.com.au/story/6603656/defence-helicopters-had-past-issue-with-landing-light/

I have no idea who owns the Canberra Times.  Time to make a list of reliable media vs. Murdoch propaganda outlets.
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gerontocrat

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Re: Wildfires
« Reply #1206 on: January 29, 2020, 04:16:54 PM »

I have no idea who owns the Canberra Times.  Time to make a list of reliable media vs. Murdoch propaganda outlets.
Channel Nine Australia - definitely right-wing.
- was a reliable Climate Change Denier - not sure where it stands now.
- was picked up on repeating dumb theories about cause of Aussie Bushfires, e.g. Arson.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
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Sailaway

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Re: Wildfires
« Reply #1207 on: January 29, 2020, 05:07:11 PM »

I have no idea who owns the Canberra Times.  Time to make a list of reliable media vs. Murdoch propaganda outlets.
Channel Nine Australia - definitely right-wing.
- was a reliable Climate Change Denier - not sure where it stands now.
- was picked up on repeating dumb theories about cause of Aussie Bushfires, e.g. Arson.

Sorry it was sold last year by Channel Nine!!!!!
 And it is not owned by Murdock, Packer ....

Florifulgurator

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Re: Wildfires
« Reply #1208 on: January 30, 2020, 04:46:46 PM »
Quote
Dashcam footage captured by the Dunmore Rural Fire Brigade on 4 January 2020. The footage shows just how quickly a bushfire can move when the wind changes direction.

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Sailaway

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Re: Wildfires
« Reply #1209 on: January 31, 2020, 09:25:10 AM »
Bush fire activity has increased today with 40+ temps and some wind. Tomorrow  will see higher overnight temps and wind averages up from today. The worst case scenario for tomorrow would see the ACT fire spread and join up with the existing coastal fire. (I don't think it will be that bad) Spot fire of 10ha have already started from the embers at least 5 km from the main front - some of the spot fired have already integrated with the main fire. Spent the day listening to the fire fighter talking on the emergency services channels!!

Sunday may give us a few mm of rain from thunderstorms so there is little help and a high risk of new fires from dry strikes. Winds will clock over the following days with the potential to drive the fires inland and potentially join up with the fires in the Snowy Mountains. That country is rugged and fires can only really be fought from the air. Every 10 degree increase in gradient doubles the potential fire speed. Not good at all.

https://www.rfs.nsw.gov.au/fire-information/fire-spread-prediction-for-saturday-1-february-2020

« Last Edit: January 31, 2020, 11:38:10 AM by Sailaway »

Sigmetnow

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Re: Wildfires
« Reply #1210 on: January 31, 2020, 08:46:01 PM »
The fire was started by the landing lights of a helicopter!!
Now that sounds pretty weird. What stupid lamp would radiate such heat? Or was it mounted at the skid and touched the grass?

Maybe it was pure coincidence, as there was some fire around already. Perhaps the Murdoch papers have run out of arsonists?

Quote

[...]
The landing light was being used because of the smoky conditions. [...]
He said the crew were lucky to escape with their lives.
"The helicopter came down to land and within 12 seconds the aircraft was almost engulfed in flames,"
[...]
"Defence can confirm that the issue outlined in the 2016 ANAO Major Project Report with respect to the MRH-90 Taipan landing lights, did not contribute to the incident in the Orroral Valley," she said. [...]
https://www.canberratimes.com.au/story/6603656/defence-helicopters-had-past-issue-with-landing-light/

I have no idea who owns the Canberra Times.  Time to make a list of reliable media vs. Murdoch propaganda outlets.

More likely that as the helicopter was landing the hot exhaust from the two engines ignited the surrounding brush. The downdraft from the rotors would quickly spread the flames.
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

Sigmetnow

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Re: Wildfires
« Reply #1211 on: February 01, 2020, 02:39:50 AM »
Within two weeks, the top of the plume had risen as high as 25 kilometers, making this the highest wildfire-caused plume ever tracked by the CALIPSO satellite. “The plume is rising because of the radiative heating of soot particles within the smoke by the Sun.”

Australian Smoke Plume Sets Records
Quote
The Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS) on NASA's Aura satellite has collected preliminary data that suggests the Australian fires injected more carbon monoxide into the stratosphere in the month of January than any other event the sensor has observed outside of the tropics during its 15-year mission.
https://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/images/146235/australian-smoke-plume-sets-records
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Tom_Mazanec

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Re: Wildfires
« Reply #1212 on: February 01, 2020, 01:36:03 PM »
^^
Wow.
That's well into the stratosphere.
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Florifulgurator

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Re: Wildfires
« Reply #1213 on: February 04, 2020, 07:30:37 PM »
Welcome to the Pyrocene

"I have long regarded all of the Holocene as an Anthropocene.  From a fire perspective I now regard the Anthropocene as a Pyrocene." -- Stephen J Pyne http://www.stephenpyne.com/disc.htm


Here is a magnificent German/French docu on the science of wildfire. Made before the Australian Black Summer. Also no mention of the Greenland peat fires ( https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-40877099 ).
Still magnificent. Should be produced also in english. Or maybe Neven can do subtitles?

One spectacularity starting at 37:33 -- Dunno if this is real or a computer simulation. Pyrocumulonimbus in Fort McMurray, Alberta, 2016.

Apropos Australian Aboriginal controlled fire techniques: Something also known to First Americans, from the Amazon to Canada.  Intro 1:02:12 about "learning again how to dance with the beast", then reporting from BC Canada.

German version:



--------------------------------
P.S.: Aboriginal controlled fire techniques won't cut it, methinks. What is also needed is a return of human-migrant "controlled grazing" and the wild bison to help with soil formation and spread seeds.

My new dream job: Landscape fireologist.
« Last Edit: February 04, 2020, 08:12:35 PM by Florifulgurator »
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vox_mundi

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Re: Wildfires
« Reply #1214 on: February 07, 2020, 06:45:23 PM »
No Food, No Fuel, No Phones: Bushfires Showed We're Only Ever One Step From System Collapse
https://phys.org/news/2020-02-food-fuel-bushfires-collapse.html

This summer's bushfires were not just devastating events in themselves. More broadly, they highlighted the immense vulnerability of the systems which make our contemporary lives possible.

... To better understand a complex system collapse, let's examine what happened in Victoria's East Gippsland region, particularly the coastal town of Mallacoota, during the recent fires.

This case demonstrates how one trigger (in this case, a bushfire) may start a cascade of events, but the intrinsic fragility of the system enables total collapse.

... All complex systems have three things in common:
  • they need a constant supply of energy to maintain their functioning
  • they are interconnected across a range of scales, from the personal and local to the global and beyond
  • they are fragile when they have no "redundancy," or Plan B.
...
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

gerontocrat

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Re: Wildfires
« Reply #1215 on: February 07, 2020, 07:20:52 PM »
No Food, No Fuel, No Phones: Bushfires Showed We're Only Ever One Step From System Collapse

This case demonstrates how one trigger (in this case, a bushfire) may start a cascade of events, but the intrinsic fragility of the system enables total collapse.

... All complex systems have three things in common:
  • they need a constant supply of energy to maintain their functioning
  • they are interconnected across a range of scales, from the personal and local to the global and beyond
  • they are fragile when they have no "redundancy," or Plan B.
...
I think you can add - "just-in-time" systems, i.e. minimal stocks & no slack.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
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P-maker

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Re: Wildfires
« Reply #1216 on: February 07, 2020, 08:06:55 PM »
Florifulgurator:

Quote
My new dream job: Landscape fireologist

May I suggest the more general job title: Carbon Ranger

There is definitely a global need for this kind of personnel and they should learn much more than fire fighting before they are authorized to watch the Globe and act on our behalf.


TerryM

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Re: Wildfires
« Reply #1217 on: February 07, 2020, 08:07:20 PM »
gerontocrat
Just in time is wonderful until someone, somewhere in the chain flubs a handoff.


I always prefered a well stocked warehouse.
Terry

Florifulgurator

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Re: Wildfires
« Reply #1218 on: February 08, 2020, 01:23:21 AM »
Florifulgurator:

Quote
My new dream job: Landscape fireologist

May I suggest the more general job title: Carbon Ranger

There is definitely a global need for this kind of personnel and they should learn much more than fire fighting before they are authorized to watch the Globe and act on our behalf.

Excellent suggestion. Yes, there is quite a bit to learn for such a "job". Quite a meta job... (First I need to check out horse riding, and if it doesn't kill my bad spinal disk. :) ) Hmm, Ranger sounds a bit "local" to me German. Last century I was dreaming of being ranger while meeting some in Yosemite and on Navajo lands... last century...
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P-maker

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Re: Wildfires
« Reply #1219 on: February 08, 2020, 05:29:06 AM »
F, glad you like it.

Don't know where the German translation came from

Quote
Überfallkommando

Under all circumstances, the Carbon Ranger needs to take it from the local level at first, not necessarily involving a horse or a Ford vehicle. One could even aspire to become a regional or a global Carbon Ranger and mainly rely on satellite information. It is clearly broader in scope than traditional forest or park ranger jobs.

We just need to come up with a viable business model involving those willing to pay and those willing to do the job.

Florifulgurator

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Re: Wildfires
« Reply #1220 on: February 08, 2020, 06:37:33 AM »
Quote
Überfallkommando
No idea how that wörd could occur to you. But here's another German wörd that came to my mind on the topic: Arbeitsdienst. Only half joking. We can mostly forget about (private) business models here...  (When I have better connection and more time I will post picture and video of what I have in mind, and what not.)
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Ktb

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Re: Wildfires
« Reply #1221 on: February 10, 2020, 09:09:17 AM »
One of my friends was a firey, doing controlled burns for the US NPS.
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Wildfires
« Reply #1222 on: February 10, 2020, 08:25:35 PM »
Quote
Warning - disturbing imagery and highly emotional content. Prof. @MichaelEMann joins Tara Brown and representatives of the Fire Service and a politician to discuss the impact of climate change on the ferocity of Australia’s bushfires. #ClimateEmergency #AustralianBushfires
https://mobile.twitter.com/scowlingmonkey/status/1226682783009038336

60 Minutes Australia on Twitter: "Did you miss any of last night's #60Mins? International viewers can catch up on 'Fire Fight' in full on the @60Mins official YouTube channel. https://t.co/skoLnHWEX6
https://mobile.twitter.com/60mins/status/1226656035454144512

The fight against Australia's biggest ever bushfires | 60 Minutes Australia
 
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Wildfires
« Reply #1223 on: February 26, 2020, 06:14:32 PM »
Northern California

Daniel Swain: "It is pretty astonishing that there is a 40+ acre wildfire with a "moderate rate of spread" currently burning--in late February--in *Mendocino County.* February is typically peak of the rainy season in what is usually quite a wet part of California. #CAwx #CAfire #CAwater”
https://mobile.twitter.com/weather_west/status/1232453349993091072

"Baseball Fire" burning in Mendocino National Forest grows to 60 acres, 5% contained (updated 9:40pm)
https://mendovoice.com/2020/02/baseball-fire-burning-east-of-covelo-reaches-40-acres-forest-service-and-cal-fire-responding/
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dnem

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Re: Wildfires
« Reply #1224 on: February 27, 2020, 04:33:20 PM »
Interesting article about a series of papers in Nature Climate Change:
https://www.wired.com/story/australias-bushfires/

In particular, some of the research is making a staggering argument: This season’s bushfires were so catastrophic, they caught modelers off guard—way off guard. The models not only hadn’t predicted that bushfires of this magnitude could happen now, they hadn’t even predicted that bushfires of this magnitude could happen in the next 80 years.

“This is perhaps one of the first really big cases where we've seen the real world do something before we've been able to have the capacity to model it properly,” says climate scientist Benjamin Sanderson of the National Center for Atmospheric Research in Boulder, who cowrote a piece in the Nature Climate Change package. “This event was worse than anything in any of the models at any point in this century. Only one of the models toward the end of the century started producing things of this magnitude.”


kassy

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Re: Wildfires
« Reply #1225 on: February 27, 2020, 06:07:15 PM »
Oh well. Long ago back in the early nineties or so models said that watching the Arctic ice die would be a thing for my retirement age but then the old ice went early this century.

The whole problem is that you model everything you know but then you need to be candid about what you don´t know and how bad that could get.

Should be a good moment of reflection for them.
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