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Sigmetnow

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Re: Wildfires
« Reply #1200 on: January 28, 2020, 08:11:19 PM »
It’s not over.

Quote
Martin Ollman (@martin_o) 1/28/20, 5:36 AM
RAW timelapse footage of the last few hours - Orroral Valley fire -Out of control #canberra #australia #AustraliaBurning #AustralianFires
https://twitter.com/martin_o/status/1222106288584216578
2 minutes of timelapse footage at the link.
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

grixm

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Re: Wildfires
« Reply #1201 on: January 28, 2020, 08:16:46 PM »
And it will get worse over the next few days. Another burst of 40+ C weather is coming to the area.

Rodius

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Re: Wildfires
« Reply #1202 on: January 28, 2020, 11:23:09 PM »
And it will get worse over the next few days. Another burst of 40+ C weather is coming to the area.

Feb and Mar are the worst times for fires. With Feb being the one to watch.

The coming heatwave is likely to be the first of three over the coming month. The fires wont be out until April, maybe even May.
They should be out in March.

Sailaway

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Re: Wildfires
« Reply #1203 on: January 29, 2020, 10:30:32 AM »
It’s not over.

Quote
Martin Ollman (@martin_o) 1/28/20, 5:36 AM
RAW timelapse footage of the last few hours - Orroral Valley fire -Out of control #canberra #australia #AustraliaBurning #AustralianFires
https://twitter.com/martin_o/status/1222106288584216578
2 minutes of timelapse footage at the link.

The fire was started by the landing lights of a helicopter!!

The fire shown in the video is (according to ACT Emergency Services) spot fire 5 km ahead of the main fire front. The fire front is about 8km from the southern suburbs and about 13 km from my house. The problem is that if the fire comes out of the trees it can burn across grassland at about 17 km per hour.

Rodius

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Re: Wildfires
« Reply #1204 on: January 29, 2020, 11:06:29 AM »
It’s not over.

Quote
Martin Ollman (@martin_o) 1/28/20, 5:36 AM
RAW timelapse footage of the last few hours - Orroral Valley fire -Out of control #canberra #australia #AustraliaBurning #AustralianFires
https://twitter.com/martin_o/status/1222106288584216578
2 minutes of timelapse footage at the link.

The fire was started by the landing lights of a helicopter!!

The fire shown in the video is (according to ACT Emergency Services) spot fire 5 km ahead of the main fire front. The fire front is about 8km from the southern suburbs and about 13 km from my house. The problem is that if the fire comes out of the trees it can burn across grassland at about 17 km per hour.

Given the forecast for tomorrow, if I was you, I would bug out now.
Hope to hear from you in a few days with your update.

Florifulgurator

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Re: Wildfires
« Reply #1205 on: January 29, 2020, 04:01:55 PM »
The fire was started by the landing lights of a helicopter!!
Now that sounds pretty weird. What stupid lamp would radiate such heat? Or was it mounted at the skid and touched the grass?

Maybe it was pure coincidence, as there was some fire around already. Perhaps the Murdoch papers have run out of arsonists?

Quote

[...]
The landing light was being used because of the smoky conditions. [...]
He said the crew were lucky to escape with their lives.
"The helicopter came down to land and within 12 seconds the aircraft was almost engulfed in flames,"
[...]
"Defence can confirm that the issue outlined in the 2016 ANAO Major Project Report with respect to the MRH-90 Taipan landing lights, did not contribute to the incident in the Orroral Valley," she said. [...]
https://www.canberratimes.com.au/story/6603656/defence-helicopters-had-past-issue-with-landing-light/

I have no idea who owns the Canberra Times.  Time to make a list of reliable media vs. Murdoch propaganda outlets.
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gerontocrat

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Re: Wildfires
« Reply #1206 on: January 29, 2020, 04:16:54 PM »

I have no idea who owns the Canberra Times.  Time to make a list of reliable media vs. Murdoch propaganda outlets.
Channel Nine Australia - definitely right-wing.
- was a reliable Climate Change Denier - not sure where it stands now.
- was picked up on repeating dumb theories about cause of Aussie Bushfires, e.g. Arson.
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Sailaway

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Re: Wildfires
« Reply #1207 on: January 29, 2020, 05:07:11 PM »

I have no idea who owns the Canberra Times.  Time to make a list of reliable media vs. Murdoch propaganda outlets.
Channel Nine Australia - definitely right-wing.
- was a reliable Climate Change Denier - not sure where it stands now.
- was picked up on repeating dumb theories about cause of Aussie Bushfires, e.g. Arson.

Sorry it was sold last year by Channel Nine!!!!!
 And it is not owned by Murdock, Packer ....

Florifulgurator

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Re: Wildfires
« Reply #1208 on: January 30, 2020, 04:46:46 PM »
Quote
Dashcam footage captured by the Dunmore Rural Fire Brigade on 4 January 2020. The footage shows just how quickly a bushfire can move when the wind changes direction.

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Sailaway

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Re: Wildfires
« Reply #1209 on: January 31, 2020, 09:25:10 AM »
Bush fire activity has increased today with 40+ temps and some wind. Tomorrow  will see higher overnight temps and wind averages up from today. The worst case scenario for tomorrow would see the ACT fire spread and join up with the existing coastal fire. (I don't think it will be that bad) Spot fire of 10ha have already started from the embers at least 5 km from the main front - some of the spot fired have already integrated with the main fire. Spent the day listening to the fire fighter talking on the emergency services channels!!

Sunday may give us a few mm of rain from thunderstorms so there is little help and a high risk of new fires from dry strikes. Winds will clock over the following days with the potential to drive the fires inland and potentially join up with the fires in the Snowy Mountains. That country is rugged and fires can only really be fought from the air. Every 10 degree increase in gradient doubles the potential fire speed. Not good at all.

https://www.rfs.nsw.gov.au/fire-information/fire-spread-prediction-for-saturday-1-february-2020

« Last Edit: January 31, 2020, 11:38:10 AM by Sailaway »

Sigmetnow

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Re: Wildfires
« Reply #1210 on: January 31, 2020, 08:46:01 PM »
The fire was started by the landing lights of a helicopter!!
Now that sounds pretty weird. What stupid lamp would radiate such heat? Or was it mounted at the skid and touched the grass?

Maybe it was pure coincidence, as there was some fire around already. Perhaps the Murdoch papers have run out of arsonists?

Quote

[...]
The landing light was being used because of the smoky conditions. [...]
He said the crew were lucky to escape with their lives.
"The helicopter came down to land and within 12 seconds the aircraft was almost engulfed in flames,"
[...]
"Defence can confirm that the issue outlined in the 2016 ANAO Major Project Report with respect to the MRH-90 Taipan landing lights, did not contribute to the incident in the Orroral Valley," she said. [...]
https://www.canberratimes.com.au/story/6603656/defence-helicopters-had-past-issue-with-landing-light/

I have no idea who owns the Canberra Times.  Time to make a list of reliable media vs. Murdoch propaganda outlets.

More likely that as the helicopter was landing the hot exhaust from the two engines ignited the surrounding brush. The downdraft from the rotors would quickly spread the flames.
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

Sigmetnow

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Re: Wildfires
« Reply #1211 on: February 01, 2020, 02:39:50 AM »
Within two weeks, the top of the plume had risen as high as 25 kilometers, making this the highest wildfire-caused plume ever tracked by the CALIPSO satellite. “The plume is rising because of the radiative heating of soot particles within the smoke by the Sun.”

Australian Smoke Plume Sets Records
Quote
The Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS) on NASA's Aura satellite has collected preliminary data that suggests the Australian fires injected more carbon monoxide into the stratosphere in the month of January than any other event the sensor has observed outside of the tropics during its 15-year mission.
https://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/images/146235/australian-smoke-plume-sets-records
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Tom_Mazanec

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Re: Wildfires
« Reply #1212 on: February 01, 2020, 01:36:03 PM »
^^
Wow.
That's well into the stratosphere.
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Florifulgurator

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Re: Wildfires
« Reply #1213 on: February 04, 2020, 07:30:37 PM »
Welcome to the Pyrocene

"I have long regarded all of the Holocene as an Anthropocene.  From a fire perspective I now regard the Anthropocene as a Pyrocene." -- Stephen J Pyne http://www.stephenpyne.com/disc.htm


Here is a magnificent German/French docu on the science of wildfire. Made before the Australian Black Summer. Also no mention of the Greenland peat fires ( https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-40877099 ).
Still magnificent. Should be produced also in english. Or maybe Neven can do subtitles?

One spectacularity starting at 37:33 -- Dunno if this is real or a computer simulation. Pyrocumulonimbus in Fort McMurray, Alberta, 2016.

Apropos Australian Aboriginal controlled fire techniques: Something also known to First Americans, from the Amazon to Canada.  Intro 1:02:12 about "learning again how to dance with the beast", then reporting from BC Canada.

German version:



--------------------------------
P.S.: Aboriginal controlled fire techniques won't cut it, methinks. What is also needed is a return of human-migrant "controlled grazing" and the wild bison to help with soil formation and spread seeds.

My new dream job: Landscape fireologist.
« Last Edit: February 04, 2020, 08:12:35 PM by Florifulgurator »
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vox_mundi

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Re: Wildfires
« Reply #1214 on: February 07, 2020, 06:45:23 PM »
No Food, No Fuel, No Phones: Bushfires Showed We're Only Ever One Step From System Collapse
https://phys.org/news/2020-02-food-fuel-bushfires-collapse.html

This summer's bushfires were not just devastating events in themselves. More broadly, they highlighted the immense vulnerability of the systems which make our contemporary lives possible.

... To better understand a complex system collapse, let's examine what happened in Victoria's East Gippsland region, particularly the coastal town of Mallacoota, during the recent fires.

This case demonstrates how one trigger (in this case, a bushfire) may start a cascade of events, but the intrinsic fragility of the system enables total collapse.

... All complex systems have three things in common:
  • they need a constant supply of energy to maintain their functioning
  • they are interconnected across a range of scales, from the personal and local to the global and beyond
  • they are fragile when they have no "redundancy," or Plan B.
...
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

gerontocrat

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Re: Wildfires
« Reply #1215 on: February 07, 2020, 07:20:52 PM »
No Food, No Fuel, No Phones: Bushfires Showed We're Only Ever One Step From System Collapse

This case demonstrates how one trigger (in this case, a bushfire) may start a cascade of events, but the intrinsic fragility of the system enables total collapse.

... All complex systems have three things in common:
  • they need a constant supply of energy to maintain their functioning
  • they are interconnected across a range of scales, from the personal and local to the global and beyond
  • they are fragile when they have no "redundancy," or Plan B.
...
I think you can add - "just-in-time" systems, i.e. minimal stocks & no slack.
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P-maker

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Re: Wildfires
« Reply #1216 on: February 07, 2020, 08:06:55 PM »
Florifulgurator:

Quote
My new dream job: Landscape fireologist

May I suggest the more general job title: Carbon Ranger

There is definitely a global need for this kind of personnel and they should learn much more than fire fighting before they are authorized to watch the Globe and act on our behalf.


TerryM

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Re: Wildfires
« Reply #1217 on: February 07, 2020, 08:07:20 PM »
gerontocrat
Just in time is wonderful until someone, somewhere in the chain flubs a handoff.


I always prefered a well stocked warehouse.
Terry

Florifulgurator

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Re: Wildfires
« Reply #1218 on: February 08, 2020, 01:23:21 AM »
Florifulgurator:

Quote
My new dream job: Landscape fireologist

May I suggest the more general job title: Carbon Ranger

There is definitely a global need for this kind of personnel and they should learn much more than fire fighting before they are authorized to watch the Globe and act on our behalf.

Excellent suggestion. Yes, there is quite a bit to learn for such a "job". Quite a meta job... (First I need to check out horse riding, and if it doesn't kill my bad spinal disk. :) ) Hmm, Ranger sounds a bit "local" to me German. Last century I was dreaming of being ranger while meeting some in Yosemite and on Navajo lands... last century...
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P-maker

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Re: Wildfires
« Reply #1219 on: February 08, 2020, 05:29:06 AM »
F, glad you like it.

Don't know where the German translation came from

Quote
Überfallkommando

Under all circumstances, the Carbon Ranger needs to take it from the local level at first, not necessarily involving a horse or a Ford vehicle. One could even aspire to become a regional or a global Carbon Ranger and mainly rely on satellite information. It is clearly broader in scope than traditional forest or park ranger jobs.

We just need to come up with a viable business model involving those willing to pay and those willing to do the job.

Florifulgurator

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Re: Wildfires
« Reply #1220 on: February 08, 2020, 06:37:33 AM »
Quote
Überfallkommando
No idea how that wörd could occur to you. But here's another German wörd that came to my mind on the topic: Arbeitsdienst. Only half joking. We can mostly forget about (private) business models here...  (When I have better connection and more time I will post picture and video of what I have in mind, and what not.)
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Ktb

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Re: Wildfires
« Reply #1221 on: February 10, 2020, 09:09:17 AM »
One of my friends was a firey, doing controlled burns for the US NPS.
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Wildfires
« Reply #1222 on: February 10, 2020, 08:25:35 PM »
Quote
Warning - disturbing imagery and highly emotional content. Prof. @MichaelEMann joins Tara Brown and representatives of the Fire Service and a politician to discuss the impact of climate change on the ferocity of Australia’s bushfires. #ClimateEmergency #AustralianBushfires
https://mobile.twitter.com/scowlingmonkey/status/1226682783009038336

60 Minutes Australia on Twitter: "Did you miss any of last night's #60Mins? International viewers can catch up on 'Fire Fight' in full on the @60Mins official YouTube channel. https://t.co/skoLnHWEX6
https://mobile.twitter.com/60mins/status/1226656035454144512

The fight against Australia's biggest ever bushfires | 60 Minutes Australia
 
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Wildfires
« Reply #1223 on: February 26, 2020, 06:14:32 PM »
Northern California

Daniel Swain: "It is pretty astonishing that there is a 40+ acre wildfire with a "moderate rate of spread" currently burning--in late February--in *Mendocino County.* February is typically peak of the rainy season in what is usually quite a wet part of California. #CAwx #CAfire #CAwater”
https://mobile.twitter.com/weather_west/status/1232453349993091072

"Baseball Fire" burning in Mendocino National Forest grows to 60 acres, 5% contained (updated 9:40pm)
https://mendovoice.com/2020/02/baseball-fire-burning-east-of-covelo-reaches-40-acres-forest-service-and-cal-fire-responding/
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dnem

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Re: Wildfires
« Reply #1224 on: February 27, 2020, 04:33:20 PM »
Interesting article about a series of papers in Nature Climate Change:
https://www.wired.com/story/australias-bushfires/

In particular, some of the research is making a staggering argument: This season’s bushfires were so catastrophic, they caught modelers off guard—way off guard. The models not only hadn’t predicted that bushfires of this magnitude could happen now, they hadn’t even predicted that bushfires of this magnitude could happen in the next 80 years.

“This is perhaps one of the first really big cases where we've seen the real world do something before we've been able to have the capacity to model it properly,” says climate scientist Benjamin Sanderson of the National Center for Atmospheric Research in Boulder, who cowrote a piece in the Nature Climate Change package. “This event was worse than anything in any of the models at any point in this century. Only one of the models toward the end of the century started producing things of this magnitude.”


kassy

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Re: Wildfires
« Reply #1225 on: February 27, 2020, 06:07:15 PM »
Oh well. Long ago back in the early nineties or so models said that watching the Arctic ice die would be a thing for my retirement age but then the old ice went early this century.

The whole problem is that you model everything you know but then you need to be candid about what you don´t know and how bad that could get.

Should be a good moment of reflection for them.
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Florifulgurator

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Re: Wildfires
« Reply #1226 on: February 29, 2020, 07:06:46 PM »
Interesting article about a series of papers in Nature Climate Change:
https://www.wired.com/story/australias-bushfires/

In particular, some of the research is making a staggering argument: This season’s bushfires were so catastrophic, they caught modelers off guard—way off guard. [...]
Like with rapid Arctic melt, which close observers find unsurprising, I found the Australian Black Summer completely unsurpirising. I vividly remember watching the 2003 fire together with a friend who is a mega gas turbine engineer, and see his jaw drop... Not the first time that a scientist's/engineer's jaw dropping to the floor taught me more in a fraction of a second than a whole semester of lectures.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2003_Canberra_bushfires#Fire_tornado

The article has an excellent video made before the Black Summer 2019/20:
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Rodius

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Re: Wildfires
« Reply #1227 on: March 12, 2020, 10:08:54 AM »
The climate-denying Australian Govt got hit hard by the fires this year... then they changed their tune a little bit by saying the climate is changing but it is natural... or that our percentage is so small that it doesnt matter..... then they talked about how they would leap into action to help rebuild the regions that were burnt down.

Three months later.......

https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2020/mar/12/were-all-just-waiting-nsw-south-coast-residents-still-in-limbo-three-months-after-bushfires

Gray-Wolf

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Re: Wildfires
« Reply #1228 on: March 12, 2020, 10:41:08 AM »
The climate-denying Australian Govt got hit hard by the fires this year... then they changed their tune a little bit by saying the climate is changing but it is natural... or that our percentage is so small that it doesnt matter..... then they talked about how they would leap into action to help rebuild the regions that were burnt down.

Three months later.......

https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2020/mar/12/were-all-just-waiting-nsw-south-coast-residents-still-in-limbo-three-months-after-bushfires

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(*) 'Their monies' includes all the money they reckon they can swindle from the Planet over the coming Years?
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Freegrass

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Re: Wildfires
« Reply #1229 on: March 23, 2020, 09:41:33 PM »
What's going on here? Are these real fires already? Or are these the heat signatures of peat fires that the satellite is picking up?

https://go.nasa.gov/3aktNg0
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kassy

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Re: Wildfires
« Reply #1230 on: March 24, 2020, 12:08:40 PM »
Bushfire smoke linked to hundreds of deaths

The first study to estimate health effects from Australia’s extreme fires suggests that several thousand more people were admitted to hospital.

Researchers estimate that smoke pollution probably killed more than 400 people during the unprecedented bush fires across southeast Australia from November to February. Thirty-three people were killed in incidents directly related to the fires.

https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-00886-9
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Re: Wildfires
« Reply #1231 on: April 04, 2020, 05:30:19 PM »
Fire season has definitely started now.

https://go.nasa.gov/2x1W1xv
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Re: Wildfires
« Reply #1232 on: April 04, 2020, 05:51:44 PM »
Unlearn things daily.

Freegrass

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Re: Wildfires
« Reply #1233 on: April 05, 2020, 12:02:34 PM »
Freegrass, this one might be of interest for you >> https://www.nationalgeographic.com/news/2017/11/underground-fire-in-china-burning-for-59-years-spd/
That's what I was wondering about, if some of those heat signatures are peet or other underground fires. There are so many of them on the planet...

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Coal-seam_fire#List_of_mine_fires
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Re: Wildfires
« Reply #1234 on: May 05, 2020, 01:36:48 AM »
https://www.ecowatch.com/wildfires-siberia-russia-2645912533.html?rebelltitem=1#rebelltitem1

Apparently, Siberian wildfires are worse than last year at this point.

vox_mundi

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Re: Wildfires
« Reply #1235 on: May 08, 2020, 07:25:20 PM »
Siberian Wildfires Have Burned an Area More Than Three Times the Size of Delaware
https://earther.gizmodo.com/we-should-probably-talk-about-the-huge-wildfires-in-sib-1843205527

Wildfires ‘Critical’ in Siberia and Russian Far East, Up to Ten Times Worse Than Last Year
https://siberiantimes.com/ecology/others/news/wildfires-critical-in-siberia-and-russian-far-east-up-to-ten-times-worse-than-last-year/

It’s spring in an era of rapid climate change so that means Russia is being lit up by monster fires. But in an era of coronavirus, a confluence of factors has made the wildfires even worse.

Russia has had a rough go of it this year. It set a record for its hottest winter ever and Moscow basically skipped the season entirely. The heat has continued into spring, and now, the Siberian countryside is on fire. Emergencies Minister Yevgeny Zinichev called it a “critical situation,” according to the Siberian Times.



Thomas Smith, a geographer at the London School of Economics, told Earther that there are roughly 5 million acres of forest and grassland ablaze in Russia. The largest fire clocks in around 1 million acres alone, or basically the size of Glacier National Park. Towns have been caught up in the fires with hundreds of structures wiped out and smoke clogging the air, making it hard to breathe. “Critical situation” might be an understatement.

Many of the blazes appear to be human caused, but extreme heat is fanning the flames. The winter warmth means that snowpack disappeared quickly, drying out vegetation and the soil. Conditions throughout April and into May have been freakishly warm as well. In recent days, temperatures have spiked as much as 36 degrees Fahrenheit (20 degrees Celsius) above normal for this time of year, and the heat is expected to hold for at least the next week.

This is all shocking and yet sadly on trend. The boreal forest that rings the northern tier of the world is burning at a rate unseen in 10,000 years. Rising temperatures have played a role by drying out forests and priming them to burn and creating conditions where fires are more likely to spread. That releases carbon dioxide, ensuring ever larger fires by heating up the planet further.

The coronavirus could also be making matters even worse. The lockdown is likely helping drive the fires. Russia’s lockdown started with a focus on Moscow in late March. It’s since spread to the rest of the country and been extended until May 11. Many city residents left for the countryside to have more space and have been ignoring fire safety rules, according to the Siberian Times report. The economic slowdown is also making it harder to muster resources to fight the flames.

What’s happening in Siberia is a preview of what’s to come in other parts of the world. The Amazon’s dry season is about to get started and could be worse than last year’s dangerous fire season. In western North America, wildfire season is also just around the corner. For California in particular, the challenges could be severe after the state received only half of its normal precipitation over the winter. Climate change is complicating wildfire season there, and coronavirus will only complicate it further.

“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

Sigmetnow

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Re: Wildfires
« Reply #1236 on: May 09, 2020, 08:26:46 PM »
Florida wildfires force 1,600 to evacuate outside Pensacola, interstate closed
Quote
PENSACOLA, Fla. - Some 1,600 people have been forced to evacuate on Florida's Panhandle after raging wildfires burned several homes and left a portion of Interstate 10 closed on Thursday due to heavy smoke, according to officials.

One of the blazes broke out Monday afternoon in Santa Rosa County, named the Five Mile Swamp Fire, after a prescribed burn Monday quickly grew out of control.

“This is a rapidly evolving situation,” Santa Rosa emergency management officials said in a statement. “If you do not feel safe in your home, you should leave. Take your pets with you.”

The Florida Forest Service said in a statement that the blaze expanded to 10 times its size due to high winds and low humidity since Wednesday morning.
...
Almost all of Florida has had less-than-usual rain this year. The National Weather Service (NWS) issued a red-flag warning for the Panhandle area on Wednesday due to dry and windy conditions that cause dangerous fire conditions

In nearby Walton County, firefighters were battling another 575-acre blaze.
https://www.fox13news.com/news/florida-wildfires-force-1600-to-evacuate-outside-pensacola-interstate-closed
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.