Support the Arctic Sea Ice Forum and Blog

Author Topic: Wildfires  (Read 188730 times)

Freegrass

  • New ice
  • Posts: 79
  • Worried Warrior
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 35
  • Likes Given: 43
Re: Wildfires
« Reply #850 on: July 31, 2019, 12:45:52 AM »
I'm wondering if these peat fires are the first triggers of rapid climate change. Will these fires trigger or speed up other feedback loops? I presume they will... These fires are really bad news for the planet... The first domino has fallen...
« Last Edit: July 31, 2019, 01:00:48 PM by Freegrass »
The Existential Climate Crisis Is Upon Us

jai mitchell

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 2030
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 70
  • Likes Given: 18
Re: Wildfires
« Reply #851 on: July 31, 2019, 01:17:10 AM »
I'm wondering if these peat fires are the first triggers of rapid climate change. Will these fires trigger or speed up other feedback loops? I presume they will, so these fires are really bad news for the planet... The first domino has fallen...

indeed.

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-018-05457-1

Wildfire as a major driver of recent permafrost thaw in boreal peatlands
Carolyn M. Gibson et. al.

Abstract
Permafrost vulnerability to climate change may be underestimated unless effects of wildfire are considered. Here we assess impacts of wildfire on soil thermal regime and rate of thermokarst bog expansion resulting from complete permafrost thaw in western Canadian permafrost peatlands. Effects of wildfire on permafrost peatlands last for 30 years and include a warmer and deeper active layer, and spatial expansion of continuously thawed soil layers (taliks). These impacts on the soil thermal regime are associated with a tripled rate of thermokarst bog expansion along permafrost edges. Our results suggest that wildfire is directly responsible for 2200 ± 1500 km2 (95% CI) of thermokarst bog development in the study region over the last 30 years, representing ~25% of all thermokarst bog expansion during this period. With increasing fire frequency under a warming climate, this study emphasizes the need to consider wildfires when projecting future circumpolar permafrost thaw.


Haiku of Past Futures
My "burning embers"
are not tri-color bar graphs
+3C today

jai mitchell

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 2030
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 70
  • Likes Given: 18
Re: Wildfires
« Reply #852 on: July 31, 2019, 01:24:12 AM »
https://www.dw.com/en/russia-declares-emergency-over-huge-wildfires-in-siberia/a-49817454

Russia declares emergency over huge wildfires in Siberia
Raging wildfires have swallowed up an area bigger that the state of Belgium across Siberia, with smoke enveloping cities. Observers and activists slammed the Russian government for not responding earlier.


An area of 3.2 million hectares (7.9 million acres) was engulfed by forest fires in remote regions of Russia on Monday.  In comparison, the total surface of the nation of Belgium is 3.07 million hectares.
With fires raging for days, immense clouds of smoke reached large population centers, including Russia's third biggest city, Novosibirsk. Authorities declared emergencies in several regions.
"The smoke is horrible," pensioner Raisa Brovkina told state television after being hospitalized in Novosibirsk.
Haiku of Past Futures
My "burning embers"
are not tri-color bar graphs
+3C today

Sam

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 109
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 72
  • Likes Given: 15
Re: Wildfires
« Reply #853 on: July 31, 2019, 02:26:01 AM »
Tor...reading the peat fire links, is it just me or does every new story always contain info that makes things worse then they appeared to be? I can't remember the last time I read an article about AGW where I said "Boy that's good".

Unfortunately, that is a reflection of the consistent underestimation of the severity of the problem, the exclusion of serious and important feedback loops from the projections; combined with the response of leaders and people all over the world failing to recognize the severity or even the reality of the problems we face.

Only once we come to grips with reality AND do meaningful things to respond will there be any chance for stories that make any of us feel like “Boy that’s good.” 

But even then, we have almost certainly pushed the world over the edge and into the transition to a new dramatically different state. It is likely under those circumstances that we will not reach a place where we can honestly say “Boy that’s good” in any living human’s lifetime. 

More importantly and more fundamentally, this is not about feelings and emotions. Those certainly come into play for each of us. The problem though is a very very real tangible problem. Changing how we feel to being more positive will not only do nothing to resolve any of the issues we now face, doing so will distract us from the urgent needs.

Sam

Archimid

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 2171
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 196
  • Likes Given: 161
Re: Wildfires
« Reply #854 on: July 31, 2019, 05:22:52 AM »
Quote
Only once we come to grips with reality AND do meaningful things to respond will there be any chance for stories that make any of us feel like “Boy that’s good.”

There are reasons to say "Boy that's good". Go to the Tesla thread or the renewables thread. There is movement in the right direction and it is accelerating. It is far too slow and we will need geoengineering, but there is hope for all of us yet. There is a lot we can do in a decade, even if under fire from climate change.
I am an energy reservoir seemingly intent on lowering entropy for self preservation.

vox_mundi

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1092
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 277
  • Likes Given: 84
Re: Wildfires
« Reply #855 on: July 31, 2019, 03:41:59 PM »
Siberian Smoke Heading Toward U.S. and Canada
https://phys.org/news/2019-07-siberian-canada.html

... "The smoke looks to be arriving late tonight (July 30), but definitely by July 31, 2019," said Colin Seftor, atmospheric scientist at NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center in Greenbelt, Maryland. The date on the image refers to west of the dateline (the Siberian portion of the image.)

« Last Edit: July 31, 2019, 06:25:55 PM by vox_mundi »
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

Shared Humanity

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 3812
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 316
  • Likes Given: 37
Re: Wildfires
« Reply #856 on: July 31, 2019, 06:03:57 PM »
Observers and activists slammed the Russian government for not responding earlier.


And short of a declaration of emergency, exactly what should be expected of the Russian government. These fires are in remote areas and, for the most part, cannot be fought.

We are going to see similar complaints in the U.S. from wealthy communities along the lengthy shorelines and there will be little the government can do.

DrTskoul

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1402
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 174
  • Likes Given: 59
Re: Wildfires
« Reply #857 on: July 31, 2019, 06:07:07 PM »
Observers and activists slammed the Russian government for not responding earlier.


And short of a declaration of emergency, exactly what should be expected of the Russian government. These fires are in remote areas and, for the most part, cannot be fought.

We are going to see similar complaints in the U.S. from wealthy communities along the lengthy shorelines and there will be little the government can do.

Yes, there is no way to put those fires out. You cannot send people and with just planes you achieve nothing...

vox_mundi

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1092
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 277
  • Likes Given: 84
Re: Wildfires
« Reply #858 on: July 31, 2019, 06:37:02 PM »
The Amazon may follow in 5-10 years

Drought-Driven Wildfires On Rise In Amazon Basin, Upping CO2 Release
https://news.mongabay.com/2018/02/drought-driven-wildfires-on-rise-in-amazon-basin-upping-co2-release/

- Severe droughts are expected to become more common in the Brazilian Amazon as natural oceanic cycles are made more extreme by human-induced climate change.

- In this new climate paradigm, limiting deforestation alone will not be sufficient to reduce fires and curb carbon emissions, scientists say. The maintenance of healthy, intact, unfragmented forests is vital to providing resilience against further increases in Amazon fires.


---------------------

Amazon Deforestation is Accelerating Under Bolsonaro, and Scientists Fear a Tipping Point
https://qz.com/1676400/brazils-amazon-deforestation-accelerating-under-jair-bolsonaro/
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

gerontocrat

  • First-year ice
  • Posts: 5794
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 952
  • Likes Given: 18
Re: Wildfires
« Reply #859 on: July 31, 2019, 06:58:17 PM »
Siberian wildfires have made it to Bloomberg News.
I am sure I read that the Russian Taiga is a carbon sink ranking alongside the Amazon?

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-07-31/putin-sends-military-to-fight-wildfires-raging-in-siberia?srnd=politics-vp
Putin Sends Military to Fight Wildfires Raging in Siberia
By Jake Rudnitsky
31 July 2019, 14:58 BST
 Russia declares state of emergency in four Siberian regions
 Fires are burning across a territory the size of Belgium

Quote
President Vladimir Putin ordered the Russian military to help battle wildfires burning across a territory the size of Belgium after record high temperatures turned huge patches of forest into a tinderbox.

Russia has declared a state of emergency in four Siberian districts because of the fires, following mounting pressure to act as plumes of smoke visible from space stretched across the region to the Urals mountains thousands of miles away. Putin told the Defense Ministry to join the fight after a meeting with Emergencies Minister Yevgeny Zinichev, the Kremlin said Wednesday.

The mobilization marks a reversal from the hands-off approach that allowed the fires to spread during a hot summer in which June temperatures in the affected regions were about 10 degrees Fahrenheit (6 degrees Celsius) above the 30-year average from 1981 to 2010. There were efforts to fight just 107,000 hectares (264,400 acres) of blazes out of a total of 3 million hectares that were burning Wednesday, according to Russia’s Federal Forestry Agency.

Greenpeace Russia spokesman Andrey Allakhverdov said the fires are on track to be the worst since the government eased rules on containing blazes in 2015, when it created zones of control in which the authorities were effectively allowed to ignore conflagrations that didn’t threaten to damage property or lives.

“Due to climate change, we’re seeing a much higher frequency of extreme weather events,” said Oksana Tarasova, head of the World Meteorological Organization’s Atmospheric Research and Environment Department in Geneva. “We’ve seen longer periods without precipitation and with higher temperatures that create the ideal conditions for these fires.”

Tarasova said emissions from the fires, which were on par with the annual output of a small country, were less a concern than the destruction of forests that serve as vital carbon storage sinks for the planet.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

kassy

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 521
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 97
  • Likes Given: 210
Re: Wildfires
« Reply #860 on: July 31, 2019, 07:16:18 PM »
So how much has this wildfire/peatfire been included in all models so far. The wildfires added up over certain areas put out CO2 equal to countries (think i have seen Belgium and Sweden mentioned) then there is the peat fires which do not stop and they might be very damaging even when you do not see them.

They seem like a recurring problem and the planetary climate trend says why not?

We might have severely underestimated sink/source at the level where it mattters.
Þetta minnismerki er til vitnis um að við vitum hvað er að gerast og hvað þarf að gera. Aðeins þú veist hvort við gerðum eitthvað.

arthur

  • NewMembers
  • New ice
  • Posts: 3
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 0
  • Likes Given: 2
Re: Wildfires
« Reply #861 on: July 31, 2019, 08:38:38 PM »
Such a great amount of discussion about the impact of these wildfires on the arctic melt situation.Nobody mentions the one impact that has yet to be quantified in any rational way.The amount of actual HEAT produced per square mile of burned forest and a relative example to amount of heat given off per square mile by an unburned forest.Thus giving an observer the ability to calculate how much extra heat is entering the regions around the arctic during major wildfire events.A tremendous amount of heat to be sure but enough to influence the weather patterns?

Keep your Atomic Bomb analogies to yourself!

TerryM

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 4745
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 181
  • Likes Given: 5
Re: Wildfires
« Reply #862 on: July 31, 2019, 09:18:43 PM »
The "Smoking Hills" of the North West Territories have been burning for a very long time. Coal and sulfur don't make stable neighbors and the fires had been burning long before Franklin noted them in 1826.
Rain might douse the fire, but it also fires up the sulfur. The nearest village is named Paulatuk or Place of Coal.


Burning Mountain in New South Wales, Australia is a coal fire that has been burning for ~6,000 years while in Germany Brennender Berg's coal seam was only ignited in 1688.


I assume that more than a few of these peat fires may continue for an equally long duration.
Terry

DrTskoul

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1402
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 174
  • Likes Given: 59
Re: Wildfires
« Reply #863 on: July 31, 2019, 09:33:57 PM »

Tom_Mazanec

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 840
    • View Profile
    • Planet Mazanec
  • Liked: 96
  • Likes Given: 28
« Last Edit: August 02, 2019, 01:42:20 AM by Tom_Mazanec »
SHARKS (CROSSED OUT) MONGEESE (SIC) WITH FRICKIN LASER BEAMS ATTACHED TO THEIR HEADS

dnem

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 249
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 44
  • Likes Given: 33
Re: Wildfires
« Reply #865 on: August 02, 2019, 02:37:44 PM »
So how much has this wildfire/peatfire been included in all models so far. The wildfires added up over certain areas put out CO2 equal to countries (think i have seen Belgium and Sweden mentioned)

I find these "equal to emissions from Country X" comparisons dumb and unhelpful.  I saw one report saying that the output of arctic fires in June totaled about 50 megatons.  That's about 0.26% of total annual global CO2 emissions (if I got my orders of magnitude right!).  Assuming that number has now doubled or tripled or more, fires in the north may be contributing on the order of 1% of emissions due to the burning of fossil fuels.

DrTskoul

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1402
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 174
  • Likes Given: 59
Re: Wildfires
« Reply #866 on: August 02, 2019, 03:57:02 PM »

TerryM

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 4745
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 181
  • Likes Given: 5
Re: Wildfires
« Reply #867 on: August 02, 2019, 04:31:52 PM »
Giant sinkholes appear as wildfires rage near Siberia


I believe fighting the fires that threaten towns and cities is the same policy that Canada uses when we fight forest fires. I'd assume that it's the same in Alaska and other northern forests.
Terry

Rich

  • Guest
Re: Wildfires
« Reply #868 on: August 02, 2019, 05:03:16 PM »
So how much has this wildfire/peatfire been included in all models so far. The wildfires added up over certain areas put out CO2 equal to countries (think i have seen Belgium and Sweden mentioned)

I find these "equal to emissions from Country X" comparisons dumb and unhelpful.  I saw one report saying that the output of arctic fires in June totaled about 50 megatons.  That's about 0.26% of total annual global CO2 emissions (if I got my orders of magnitude right!).  Assuming that number has now doubled or tripled or more, fires in the north may be contributing on the order of 1% of emissions due to the burning of fossil fuels.

We're up to ~120 megatons and counting from the Arctic fires That's about 0.3% of the 40 Gt global total or 1 day of extra emissions.

If you look at it as an isolated concealed event, not such a big deal.

But it ain't that. This is an example of a positive feedback, not an isolated event. By the time this thing burns out and you consider the lost CO2 uptake from those trees not being there in years to come, maybe this is a 1,000+ megaton event. And then you start adding in comparable events like sundry methane leaks and fires elsewhere and Japanese and Europeans buying millions of air conditioning units to cope with unprecedented heat.   

and badda bing, badda boom.....shit starts getting away from us.

It's only 2019. We're just starting to see AGW react to the Great Acceleration. What we're seeing in the Arctic now is the work of AGW as a precocious child. A malevolent teenager is coming soon before we get the real deal.

dnem

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 249
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 44
  • Likes Given: 33
Re: Wildfires
« Reply #869 on: August 02, 2019, 10:53:07 PM »
I now see that I had already made a guess at 100 megatons (and used 38 GT as my baseline) to arrive at 0.26%. Anyway, yes, it's an increasing feedback and not insignificant even at this level when it's imperative for annual emissions to be dropping.

Freegrass

  • New ice
  • Posts: 79
  • Worried Warrior
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 35
  • Likes Given: 43
Re: Wildfires
« Reply #870 on: August 03, 2019, 05:09:44 AM »
Does anyone know what could cause these high levels of carbon monoxide? Could this "hotspot" be a peat fire?

https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/chem/surface/level/overlay=cosc/orthographic=-52.10,113.69,3000/loc=122.788,65.764

This spot also has the highest concentration of CO2 on the planet. 485 ppm.  ???
Edit; There are a few other spots on the planet with higher concentrations. The world is on fire...

https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/chem/surface/level/overlay=co2sc/orthographic=-55.53,114.11,3000/loc=123.300,66.032
« Last Edit: August 03, 2019, 05:32:00 AM by Freegrass »
The Existential Climate Crisis Is Upon Us

Tom_Mazanec

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 840
    • View Profile
    • Planet Mazanec
  • Liked: 96
  • Likes Given: 28
Re: Wildfires
« Reply #871 on: August 03, 2019, 09:30:51 PM »
Siberian fires as big as Belgium, threaten more arctic melting:
SHARKS (CROSSED OUT) MONGEESE (SIC) WITH FRICKIN LASER BEAMS ATTACHED TO THEIR HEADS

Tom_Mazanec

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 840
    • View Profile
    • Planet Mazanec
  • Liked: 96
  • Likes Given: 28
Re: Wildfires
« Reply #872 on: August 06, 2019, 10:21:17 PM »
« Last Edit: August 06, 2019, 10:51:37 PM by Tom_Mazanec »
SHARKS (CROSSED OUT) MONGEESE (SIC) WITH FRICKIN LASER BEAMS ATTACHED TO THEIR HEADS


Paddy

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 549
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 19
  • Likes Given: 29
Re: Wildfires
« Reply #874 on: August 13, 2019, 01:48:03 PM »
Smoke from wildfires now covers an area "bigger than the EU" https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/aug/12/arctic-wildfires-smoke-cloud

gerontocrat

  • First-year ice
  • Posts: 5794
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 952
  • Likes Given: 18
Re: Wildfires
« Reply #875 on: August 13, 2019, 01:52:47 PM »
I was wandering around a bit of ASIF history and found - from 2013

Quote
silkman

Siberian Fires
« on: June 30, 2013, 08:56:23 AM »

MODIS this morning has a very clear image of wild fires in Siberia with the smoke plume spreading hundreds of miles to the East.

Though these are a part of the natural course of events it's concerning to consider the implications of more frequent conflagrations on this scale in such a remote area, particularly to arctic albedo.

Things have got a lot worse in the last 6 years, and can no longer be considered as "a part of the natural course of events ". 6 years is not a long time.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

nanning

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 380
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 43
  • Likes Given: 2043
Re: Wildfires
« Reply #876 on: August 13, 2019, 04:54:41 PM »
Quote
Things have got a lot worse in the last 6 years
Indeed. Worsening ever more. There'll be no end to the worsening for the next couple of centuries I guess. As long as GMST keeps rising. Or until the forests are gone of course.
"It is preoccupation with possessions, more than anything else, that prevents us from living freely and nobly"

bbr2314

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1694
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 150
  • Likes Given: 42
Re: Wildfires
« Reply #877 on: August 13, 2019, 05:54:12 PM »
Quote
Things have got a lot worse in the last 6 years
Indeed. Worsening ever more. There'll be no end to the worsening for the next couple of centuries I guess. As long as GMST keeps rising. Or until the forests are gone of course.
Or until the humans are (mostly) gone  ;D

Sebastian Jones

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 299
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 42
  • Likes Given: 34
Re: Wildfires
« Reply #878 on: August 13, 2019, 06:35:30 PM »
I read recently- somewhere, maybe even here- that because we have altered most of the very fire prone savanna around the world, that total annual area burned has declined over the past few centuries.
This surprised me- probably mostly because I live in the boreal and fire season is definitely getting longer.
So I noodled around  to look for evidence, pro or con and what I found is....it's complicated.
Yes it does appear that global fire incidence is lower now than a couple of hundred years ago, but there are strong regional variations.
Complicating my search is the fact that the denier-sphere has, naturally, latched onto this trend as evidence for whatever thing it is that they are denying.
Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society is pretty legit.

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4874420/

Extract:
"Thus, while there are clearly some noteworthy trends in area burned for specific recent periods and regions, the general perception of increasing fire around the world is not supported by the data available to date. This does not withstand the observation of increasing fire season length in some areas [50], which is an important contributor to the increase in area burned during this century in the northwestern USA [43,46], boreal Canada and Alaska [51,52]. A future lengthening of the fire season is also anticipated for many other regions of the globe, with a potential associated increase of fire activity [19,53–56]. It is, however, important to recognize that in addition to direct climatic factors, other factors such as fuel availability and human influence will also strongly affect future fire activity [57,58].

Thus the widespread use of limited datasets or excessive extrapolation of short-term regional trends may go some way in explaining the widely held view of generally increasing fire around the world. The wider impacts of fire on society examined in §3b–d, however, may be even more relevant in driving the overall perceptions of fire trends."


Tom_Mazanec

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 840
    • View Profile
    • Planet Mazanec
  • Liked: 96
  • Likes Given: 28
Re: Wildfires
« Reply #879 on: August 14, 2019, 02:45:37 AM »
Fires are getting too severe for species that require fires. Black backed woodpecker next on endangered species list (if Trump doesn't end it)?
https://www.nationalgeographic.com/animals/2019/08/forest-fires-too-intense-adapted-woodpeckers/
SHARKS (CROSSED OUT) MONGEESE (SIC) WITH FRICKIN LASER BEAMS ATTACHED TO THEIR HEADS