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Sigmetnow

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Re: Wildfires
« Reply #400 on: December 14, 2017, 05:10:21 PM »
CAL FIRE update, December 14, 2017 6:23 am

Thomas Fire
Acres Burned - Containment:   242,500 acres - 30% contained
Structures Threatened:   18,000 structures threatened
Structures Destroyed:   972 Structures Destroyed, 221 Structures Damaged

Now #4 largest California fire.  In December!  — well into what used to be the state’s rainy season.  Fire season is now year-round. :'(
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Wildfires
« Reply #401 on: December 14, 2017, 05:28:46 PM »
It's still early, but California's snowpack is running far behind schedule so far–just 37% of normal.
Continued warm and dry through at least Dec 30th.
    https://twitter.com/ericholthaus/status/941124618185736192
Image below.
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Wildfires
« Reply #402 on: December 15, 2017, 12:01:33 AM »
Extreme fire behavior today at the #ThomasFire — one firefighter has been killed in the line of duty.
Rose Valley, California is north of Ojai.

#ThomasFire: Fire is now well established on the north side of Rose Valley. Crews are unable to control it.
https://twitter.com/vcscanner/status/941409502246584320

Was embedded with a crew on the Montecito side of the fire photographing a 1+ mile long firing operation. Left at 315am. The burnover allegedly occurred on the Fillmore side of the fire later in the morning. The fire is going crazy right now in Rose Valley. #thomasfire #lodd
https://twitter.com/stuartpalley/status/941410102027808768

I am very saddened to report that a firefighter fatality has occurred on the Thomas Incident. Please join me in keeping our fallen firefighter and his loved ones in your prayers. - @CALFIRE_CHIEF
http://cdfdata.fire.ca.gov/pub/cdf/images/incidentfile1922_3242.pdf
News release at the link.



THE THOMAS FIRE COULD BECOME THE LARGEST WILDFIRE IN CALIFORNIA HISTORY
Weather models continue to show absolutely no rainfall until December 30th at the earliest.
https://psmag.com/environment/thomas-fire-could-become-largest-in-california-history
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John Batteen

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Re: Wildfires
« Reply #403 on: December 15, 2017, 06:58:38 PM »
Wildfire burning in Custer State Park in the Black Hills of South Dakota, in December.  Extremely unusual, never happened before.  This comes on the heels of a severe drought which has yet to resolve itself.

http://rapidcityjournal.com/news/local/legion-lake-fire-now-percent-contained-more-than-square-miles/article_1fc9c496-beac-5501-9b2c-3032aa8762b1.html

TerryM

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Re: Wildfires
« Reply #404 on: December 15, 2017, 10:33:23 PM »
SB fire history tends to be repeated . I don't live there anymore. Where I live in the Santa Ynez valley is fairly safe. If I was forced to prepare pigs for a fire I would make a big big wallow in the middle of a big dry paddock and fence them into the wallow . Kinda like getting into a swimming pool is about your best bet if you can't get out in your car..
Please don't worry about an old swineherd, worry about why rich people in Montecito refuse to ration their water during a drought or even limit new well permits. Worry about why they refuse to reduce the fuel load that surrounds their homes and create a defendable space. And finally worry why the rest of us are forced to pay a tax load to protect the real pigs. 30 million dollar homes, private jets ,a couple Teslas , and staff to keep up the grounds but firemen brought in from places like Oxnard or Compton.
The wallow sounds like a lifesaver, BTW - hope the sow is recovering.

I'd thought you were further south, and had been worrying. The wife and I used to spend our 4th of July weekends in, and about Lompoc, as we found the whole region, with the exception of Santa Barbara, to have a wonderful ambiance so missed while living in the plastic jungle of Las Vegas.
In our last few trips we'd noted the ever expanding vineyards, each with it's mandatory mansion. We eventually headed further up the coast in our attempts to leave the madness behind.

I'd read somewhere that the California Penal System hasn't been able to provide their fair share of slave prison labor to fight the fires this year. Something to do with the "Sanctuary Cities Movement" was being blamed for this critical shortage of indentured labor.
These are dirty, dangerous, jobs, and a little additional (cattle) prodding has traditionally filled the gap.

Terry

Bruce Steele

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Re: Wildfires
« Reply #405 on: December 16, 2017, 04:44:38 AM »
Terry, I know you had a place in San Bernadino and that you also knew the Great Basin. Lompoc is close to where I live and yes vineyards and mansions have taken over what used to be Lima beans and Garbonzo Beans that were dry farmed for five generations around here before grapes took over. Pot farms are springing up now with about 150 large greenhouses popping up within two miles of where live over the last year. I am but a simple pig farmer and I don't have visions of vast wealth dancing in my head like sugar plum fairies . Maybe growing up in places like Winnemuca, Baker city, and Livingston temper a honest mans expectations.
 I still can see the Milky Way at night .I still have coyotes, cougar, and roadrunners as occasional visitors. Something always tugs at me to venture far afield . Most people don't want to live hard agains't the anvil but when civilization decides a pig farmer isn't what they want for a neighbor I will move someplace else .
 I know I am off topic but I hope Terry and I can reminisce on memories of where we both have lived
 Back on topic. I said a couple days ago that sundowners and strong north winds were the biggest threat to S.B.   Saturday is going to test the fire lines in S.B. Sunday and Monday will result in Northeasters for Ventura county and the Sespe Wilderness will fry. I have hiked hundreds and hundreds of miles of the wilderness that has already burnt and as the fire digs deeper into the backcountry it will burn a lot more that I know from all the time I have been privileged to spend there. I worry the wildlife hasn't had refuge from the inferno. Sometimes our fires burn in a patchwork that provides some opportunity for survival but the drought, the dryness and the deadwood are going to be a death knell I am afraid. So many springs have dried up already... 
My family has lived around here for 150 years and our ( human. ) complicity in all this destruction wears on my soul. Millions and millions of my fellow human cohabitants don't feel my pain for the Coyotes, Cougars, and minions lost. They can't feel for what they know not.
 
« Last Edit: December 16, 2017, 12:43:20 PM by Bruce Steele »

Alison

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Re: Wildfires
« Reply #406 on: December 16, 2017, 03:35:28 PM »
How is the sow doing, please Bruce?

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Re: Wildfires
« Reply #407 on: December 16, 2017, 03:44:08 PM »

My family has lived around here for 150 years and our ( human. ) complicity in all this destruction wears on my soul. Millions and millions of my fellow human cohabitants don't feel my pain for the Coyotes, Cougars, and minions lost. They can't feel for what they know not.

The least informed of us humans will be feeling the pain soon enough, pain that will dwarf the hurt that families who are losing their homes now feel.

Bruce Steele

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Re: Wildfires
« Reply #408 on: December 16, 2017, 05:18:11 PM »
I got up before dawn and started watching live coverage on the local TV . Conditions seemed rather mild but within a half hour there were reports of downslope winds at 36 mph all along the ridge line from Montecito to Gaviota. The fire moved very quickly with spot fires jumping out in front of the majority of the flames. If the fire gets much closer to town I expect new evacuations will be be put in place and the cellphone will buzz with the new notices. I will post if that happens. We are going to have strong winds all day with the worst expected at dusk hence the term " sundowner "
 There was an oil delivery truck that overturned on the Northbound lanes of the 101 freeway last night in SB and the northbound lanes have been closed for 9 hours. The 192 is the route locals would usually use to circumvent a freeway closure but it is closed due to the fire. Anyone headed north out of L.A. should  take the 5 , avoid the 101.
 Latest weather service has reported gusts to 55 mph above Montecito
 Allison, I posted earlier about the sow... then erased the bad news. She was having lots of trouble with the front and rear legs on her right side. She was having difficulty standing. Sometimes being a farmer requires tough choices. I sold pigs to a lady who lived in the hills above Santa Paula in Wheeler canyon It burned there so fast there wouldn't have been any chance of evacuating her animals. Her phone lines are down.
 
 

Bruce Steele

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Re: Wildfires
« Reply #409 on: December 16, 2017, 05:37:26 PM »
Mandatory evacuations have just been put in place for most of Montecito, everything North of the 101 is now mandatory. The cell phone is buzzing right now. This could become the most expensive fire in US history( today ) is  if things go badly wrong.

solartim27

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Re: Wildfires
« Reply #410 on: December 16, 2017, 06:08:30 PM »
Looking pretty nasty in Santa Barbara.  Live news coverage here
http://www.ksby.com/category/297505/live-stream
FNORD

Alison

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Re: Wildfires
« Reply #411 on: December 16, 2017, 06:32:28 PM »
Thank you Bruce. Your animals are fortunate to have you. Very best.

Sigmetnow

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Re: Wildfires
« Reply #412 on: December 16, 2017, 07:26:31 PM »
Tweets from yesterday:

Conditions will be suitable for rapid wildfire growth and extreme fire behavior in *Northern California* tomorrow.
Impossible to overstate how unusual this is for mid-December.
https://twitter.com/ericholthaus/status/941684353523908608

NWS Bay Area:  Critical Fire Weather conditions over portions of #CA the next two days.  @NWSSPC has elevated and critical areas highlighted.  Red Flag Warning remains in effect for #BayArea #cawx #cafire
https://twitter.com/nwsbayarea/status/941653277481029637
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Wildfires
« Reply #413 on: December 16, 2017, 07:35:01 PM »
From ~one hour ago:

VCFD PIO: #ThomasFire -Fire intensity increasing in the Santa Barbara area.
https://twitter.com/vcfd_pio/status/942085986846044160
Photo below.

VCFD PIO: #ThomasFire The strongest N winds will occur across in a SB AREA this morning & the strongest NE winds will occur in Ventura, Sunday morning
https://twitter.com/vcfd_pio/status/942089058011852800

The #thomasfire is moving quickly today, as wind speeds pick up. It’s headed towards Montecito.
https://twitter.com/yamphoto/status/942086473234313217
Brief video at the link.

Update: #ThomasFire experiencing explosive growth on the western edge near #SantaBarbara , strong sundowner winds expected to develope this evening, could be a dangerous day out there. Don't wait to evacuate !
https://twitter.com/epn473/status/942086767909285890




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Re: Wildfires
« Reply #414 on: December 16, 2017, 07:43:55 PM »
Live news stream.

http://www.ksby.com/category/297505/live-stream

Homes in Montecito are burning.

Sigmetnow

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Re: Wildfires
« Reply #415 on: December 16, 2017, 08:00:08 PM »
VCFD PIO: #ThomasFire -"Fire Front Following" tactic will be used if the expected wind pushes the fire downhill into Montecito/Santa Barbara areas.
https://twitter.com/vcfd_pio/status/942087332986896384

Google:
Fire front following is a fast-paced, defensive tactic that allows firefighters to defend structures while continuously advancing, but staying just behind the fire front, in the black.

"Fire Front Following" is an extreme tactic designed to preserve firefighter safety when "the chances of success are impossible".
http://www.firerescuemagazine.com/articles/print/volume-11/issue-10/wildland-urban-interface/fire-front-following.html

     https://twitter.com/ericholthaus/status/942104607328821249
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Wildfires
« Reply #416 on: December 16, 2017, 08:08:10 PM »
CAL FIRE:  #ThomasFire - The Santa Barbara County Sheriff has issued mandatory evacuation orders and evacuation warnings for Santa Barbara county. 
http://www.fire.ca.gov/current_incidents/incidentdetails/Index/1922

Full news release and other information at the link.
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Wildfires
« Reply #417 on: December 16, 2017, 11:40:03 PM »
Half of the city of Santa Barbara is now under either a voluntary or mandatory evacuation due to the massive Thomas Fire.

New evacuation orders for Santa Barbara County as winds pick up, threatening hundreds of homes in Montecito
Quote
Wind gusts of up to 65 mph blasted south down the San Ysidro Creek drainage directly into Montecito.

‘Unfortunately they under-predicted this one,” Zaniboni said. “We weren’t expecting this severe of a wind event and we’re certainly getting the worst...This fire is two weeks old and here we are battling it like it just started again this morning.”
http://www.latimes.com/local/lanow/la-me-thomas-fire-ledeall-20171216-story.html

NWS Los Angeles: Red Flag Warning in effect for much of LA/Ventura counties tonight-Sunday due to #SantaAnaWinds gusting 35-55 mph and low humidities. Potential for very rapid fire spread #LAWind #LAWeather.
https://twitter.com/NWSLosAngeles/status/942144563568873477

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Sigmetnow

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Re: Wildfires
« Reply #418 on: December 17, 2017, 03:28:40 AM »
VIIRS satellite fire detections show #ThomasFire's rapid spread to the west due to 12/16 strong winds. Red=newer, yellow=older. Green line is fire boundary late last night. Evacuate early if authorities notify you.
     https://twitter.com/bbdd333/status/942182173687267328
Image below.
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Wildfires
« Reply #419 on: December 17, 2017, 03:30:55 AM »
#ThomasFire now approaching largest fire in California history at 267,500 acres this evening and 40% contained.  Largest previous Fire was the 273,246 acre Cedar Fire.  #VenturaCounty #SantaBarbara
     https://twitter.com/Info_CIIMT1/status/942215620963139584
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Pmt111500

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Re: Wildfires
« Reply #420 on: December 17, 2017, 08:38:14 AM »
Just heard that California has some big wildfires about. Check it out, other Europeans. Are the republicans fleeing or fighting the fires?

(edit: Ah, sigmetnow has reported this already. Anyway, first i heard in finnish.
« Last Edit: December 17, 2017, 10:13:42 AM by Pmt111500 »
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Bernard

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Re: Wildfires
« Reply #421 on: December 17, 2017, 11:14:00 AM »
@Pmt111500 Here in France the California fires have made it to the breaking news in all mainstream media more than a week ago. But we are certainly more concerned in Southern Europe, south of France (where I live), Italy, Spain, Portugal, Greece ... where wildfires are becoming with years more frequent and destructive. What happens to California is just an ominous prefiguration of what we have to expect here in the years to come, with basically the same ingredients : dry forest and brush in remote mountains, anarchical urbanization, powerful local dry winds (the infamous "mistral" in Provence), longer and hotter droughts.

Bruce Steele

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Re: Wildfires
« Reply #422 on: December 17, 2017, 05:34:41 PM »
The fire in the Montecito-Santa Barbara area seems to have for the most part burned itself out overnight. There were a couple homes lost but it is a testament to the firefighters skill and planning  that things didn't go much worse.
 There will be three days of good weather to snuff out the small hot spots still burning on the West end of the fire. The East end of the fire by Fillmore and the back country are still troublesome but how we got through yesterday without larger losses is just amazing.
 I would have predicted worse but my guesses on various polls on this forum force me to question my predictive skills. There have been multiple fires in the years I have been living around here where hundreds of houses burned but S.B. looks to have dodged the bullet this time.

Archimid

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Re: Wildfires
« Reply #423 on: December 17, 2017, 06:51:36 PM »
It seems that this year worst case scenarios have come true more often than usual. I'm very glad to hear that this wasn't one of those. Stay safe.
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Wildfires
« Reply #424 on: December 17, 2017, 07:51:35 PM »
VCFD PIO: #ThomasFire -Firefighters achieved huge successes yesterday during a BIG firefight to hold their line & SAVED hundreds of homes in Montecito
https://twitter.com/VCFD_PIO/status/942456877253763072
Map at the link.

NWS Los Angeles:  Red Flag Warnings in effect for much of LA/Ventura counties until 8 pm this evening. Potential for very rapid fire spread, long range spotting, and extreme fire behavior due to strong #SantaAnaWinds. #LAWind #LAWeather
https://twitter.com/NWSLosAngeles/status/942455521096994817

Image from: https://twitter.com/eric_doherty/status/942464240853512192
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Paddy

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Re: Wildfires
« Reply #425 on: December 19, 2017, 03:24:27 PM »
Thomas fire now at 271,750 acres in size, which is less than 2000 acres below the Califirnuan record, but also 50% contained now, thankfully http://m.fire.ca.gov/IncidentsCurrent.aspx

Paddy

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Re: Wildfires
« Reply #426 on: December 20, 2017, 04:41:10 PM »
The winds that have been driving the Thomas fire are due to return today: http://www.latimes.com/local/lanow/la-me-fire-ledeall-20171220-story.html

Tor Bejnar

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Re: Wildfires
« Reply #427 on: December 20, 2017, 07:12:14 PM »
Thomas Fire
272,000 acres - 60% contained
Last Updated: 2017-12-20 09:31:00
Cal Fire
#2 for size of post 1932 fires in California
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Wildfires
« Reply #428 on: December 21, 2017, 08:45:11 PM »
Congrats to @usfs fire photographer @stuartpalley for capturing this poignant shot at the #ThomasFire this week.
Firefighters there are working through the holidays—during the middle of what's normally the "rainy" season. The humanity of life in the anthropocene.
     https://twitter.com/ericholthaus/status/943925206543949824
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Tor Bejnar

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Re: Wildfires
« Reply #429 on: December 21, 2017, 08:58:37 PM »
272,200 acres - 60% contained (+200 a. from yesterday)
Last Updated: 2017-12-21 11:08:00
Cal Fire
Still #2 (1,046 acres less than #1 or about 1/3 of 1% [3.8‰] less than #1)
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Bruce Steele

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Re: Wildfires
« Reply #430 on: December 22, 2017, 05:05:14 AM »
I used to have a 125 lb. dog that was a good hiking partner. We would go off trail and that often required crawling under the brush known as chaparel . The dog would make better time than I could and when I was completely stymied I would call out to him and wherever he crashed back through the heavy cover I would follow because he could find the game trails with his nose. If you look at the attached photo you wouldn't know these slopes were ever completely brush covered for the last hundred years. Like I said before the game it protected is gone. I am still hoping for rain this season but any heavy rains will be scary . I miss the dog, he was a real trooper.

https://www.noozhawk.com/article/ray_ford_thomas_fire_causes_serious_damage_to_frontcountry_trails

miki

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Re: Wildfires
« Reply #431 on: December 23, 2017, 05:48:30 AM »
Thomas fire becomes largest wildfire on record in California.

http://www.latimes.com/local/lanow/la-me-thomas-fire-size-20171222-20171222-htmlstory.html

"The Thomas fire on Friday became California’s largest wildfire on record, burning 273,400 acres during its destructive march across Ventura and Santa Barbara counties.

The fire eclipsed the 2003 Cedar fire in San Diego County, which burned 273,246 acres."

Sigmetnow

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Re: Wildfires
« Reply #432 on: December 23, 2017, 02:54:20 PM »
“The [Thomas] fire area has not received any rainfall over .10 inches since February.  Live fuel conditions are far below critical levels.“

CALFIRE Incident Update and photo:
https://twitter.com/LosPadresNF/status/944422029360377857
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Tor Bejnar

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Re: Wildfires
« Reply #433 on: December 23, 2017, 08:36:15 PM »
That is, the largest fire in California (counting only California territory) since 1932.
Rush Fire in 2012 burned 315,577 acres, 43,666 acres in Nevada.
Santiago Canyon Fire of 1889 burned at least 300,000 acres.
per Wikipedia
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Bruce Steele

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Re: Wildfires
« Reply #434 on: December 24, 2017, 05:11:53 AM »
I mentioned before that I had sold some pigs to a lady who lived up Wheeler Canyon, a long dead end canyon road downwind and close to where the fire started. I had tried her phone but only got a strange tone. The roads are open so I took a drive to see how her farm had fared. As I feared she was totally burned out but amazingly her livestock survived even as the house and barns burnt to the ground.
Now however without power her friends were hand watering her 60 or seventy head of alpacas, pigs and horses. Neighbors were pitching in to help clean up and fixing the fences to keep the stock within her very scorched perimeter.
 I did make contact and I am going to buy back as many pigs as I can market or afford. I told her that I would be willing to sell her new stock when she got back on her feet for whatever price she sold me the now stranded herd members. The wooden bridge to her property was burnt out but she said it was the first priority and would be replaced soon.
 She was apparently there as the fire arrived because she told me the pigs were calm and never panicked even as the flames burned everything around them.
 I am going to be challenged both monetarily and logistically in trying to get her pigs to market . I hope my restaurant customers can step up and handle some extra product. Like I said already I will be here if and when she wants to grow her herd again but these sorts of experiences leave any farmer questioning whether they want to start again.

Sigmetnow

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Re: Wildfires
« Reply #435 on: December 24, 2017, 06:23:47 PM »
Australia.

Natalie Peters:
My parents are evacuating their home at Mulgoa (with all the relatives there for Christmas in tow) due to a nearby bushfire. Thinking of everyone out there right now, and thanking all the @NSWRFS crews. #sydney
https://twitter.com/nataliejpeters/status/944792739375222785
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Wildfires
« Reply #436 on: December 25, 2017, 01:15:08 AM »
Extraordinary double green-flash sunset from San Diego, enhanced by smoke from the California fires--maybe the only good thing to come from them. (Photo: Chris Mannerino) http://earthsky.org/todays-image/photo-double-green-flash-san-diego
https://twitter.com/coreyspowell/status/944578147982495749
Photo below.
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TerryM

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Re: Wildfires
« Reply #437 on: December 25, 2017, 10:46:37 PM »
Totally amazing!
I had no idea that a double green flash was even possible.


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Re: Wildfires
« Reply #438 on: December 26, 2017, 02:56:05 AM »
Thomas Fire is now 281,620 acres in size, but 86% contained.  http://m.fire.ca.gov/IncidentsCurrent.aspx

1500 fire fighters are still working on bringing this completely under control: http://www.latimes.com/local/lanow/la-me-thomas-fire-christmas-20171225-story.html

Sigmetnow

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Re: Wildfires
« Reply #439 on: December 31, 2017, 05:11:28 PM »
Dec 30, 2017:

#ThomasFire [update] north of Santa Paula (Ventura and Santa Barbara County) per @LosPadresNF remains 281,893 acres and 92% contained. (link: https://inciweb.nwcg.gov/incident/5670/) inciweb.nwcg.gov/incident/5670/
https://twitter.com/CAL_FIRE/status/947143807786631168
Photo below.
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GeoffBeacon

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Re: Wildfires
« Reply #440 on: January 03, 2018, 04:42:04 AM »
Keeping global warming within 1.5 °C constrains emergence of aridification in Nature Climate Change is paywalled but Phys.Org says
Quote
Dr Chang-Eui Park from SusTech, one of the authors of the study, said: "Aridification is a serious threat because it can critically impact areas such as agriculture, water quality, and biodiversity. It can also lead to more droughts and wildfires - similar to those seen raging across California.
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Tor Bejnar

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Re: Wildfires
« Reply #441 on: January 03, 2018, 05:00:52 AM »
Thomas Fire in Southern California:
Goleta, Calif., January 2, 2018 — For Immediate Release.
Start Date: December 4, 2017 Cause: Under Investigation Size: 281,893 acres
Containment: 92% Personnel: 487 Structures Destroyed: 1,063 Structures Damaged: 280
source: inciweb
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crandles

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Re: Wildfires
« Reply #442 on: January 03, 2018, 04:22:05 PM »
Fire reductions 'make methane numbers add up'
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-42555568

Quote
Wildfires in particular have been going down as the amount of land under agricultural control has expanded.

Surprised me a little.

Sigmetnow

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Re: Wildfires
« Reply #443 on: January 03, 2018, 08:04:27 PM »
It's January! And California is still dealing with elevated wildfire risk.
https://mobile.twitter.com/ericholthaus/status/948291451032567808
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Avalonian

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Re: Wildfires
« Reply #444 on: January 04, 2018, 11:05:10 AM »
Fire reductions 'make methane numbers add up'
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-42555568

Quote
Wildfires in particular have been going down as the amount of land under agricultural control has expanded.

Surprised me a little.

Yes, I saw that as well, and felt the same. It does seem to be borne out by the data, though:
http://rstb.royalsocietypublishing.org/content/royptb/371/1696/20150345.full.pdf

GeoffBeacon

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Re: Wildfires
« Reply #445 on: January 04, 2018, 11:54:55 AM »
Fire reductions 'make methane numbers add up'
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-42555568

Quote
Wildfires in particular have been going down as the amount of land under agricultural control has expanded.

Surprised me a little.

I've noticed that the BBC is getting a little better in it's reporting of climate change after years (particularly since 2007) of hiding the awful truth from it's audience.

In the title the term "Fire reductions" makes me suspicious that there is still an element of climate hiding at the BBC. The article says

Quote
The mean burnt area (a priori)-based estimate from GFED4s is slightly larger and shows a slightly smaller decrease (2.3 Tg CH4 per year) in fire emissions after 2007 relative to the 2001–2006 time period.
but also points out
Quote
Wetter years associated with La Nina during the 2008 through 2014 time periods likely  contributed to the observed decrease in fire emissions in South America and Indonesia. It is also
likely that this increased precipitation in these regions affects the fuel moisture content and in turn the combustion efficiency of the fires.

So there may have been less biomass burning as "the amount of land under agricultural control has expanded" but comparing a few dryer El Niño years with some wetter La Nina years does not amount to a "Fire reductions" trend.

I know the BBC piece does not actually claim a fire reduction trend but I think it's implied. Am I just being too suspicious?

Note: I have an FOI with the BBC "Can I use a BBC image, which makes it look like Jeremy Corbyn is using Nazi salute?" which is long overdue. I suspect someone in the BBC cropped the picture to give the impression of a Nazi salute - to me it looked even more Nazi-like in the thumbnail that was on the News page.  I want to show the original and the BBC-cropped version. The request is long overdue.
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GeoffBeacon

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Re: Wildfires
« Reply #446 on: January 04, 2018, 01:17:58 PM »

Yes, I saw that as well, and felt the same. It does seem to be borne out by the data, though:
http://rstb.royalsocietypublishing.org/content/royptb/371/1696/20150345.full.pdf

Perhaps Leon Festinger's cognative dissonance (aka stubborness) has got me but I'm not convinced by the Royal Society paper

Quote
What is not spreading equally well is the recognition
that fire is a fundamental natural ecological agent in many
of our ecosystems and only a ‘problem’ where we choose
to inhabit these fire-prone regions or we humans introduce
 it to non-fire-adapted ecosystems [3]. The ‘wildfire problem’
is essentially more a social than a natural one.

In the back of my mind is

a) Fires may spread to a drier Amazon basin causing enormous release of carbon.
b) The Indonesian fires of 1997 & 2015 were related to palm oil production.
c) Canadian wildfires are encouraged by changes in insect infestations caused by climate change.
d) Increased wildfire in the Arctic

But to be more specific on the RoyalSoc paper...

75 deaths a year rising to 100,000 deaths in a year

In the RoyalSoc paper, I'm surprised by "Table 2. Human and economic losses from wildfire ‘disasters’ by global region from 1984 to 2013". This reports 748 people killed in Asia in a decade (75 deaths a year?)when Columbia and Harvard research tells us Southeast Asia Haze Caused Over 100,000 Deaths,
Quote
A study by two U.S. universities estimated that more than
100,000 people in parts of Southeast Asia died prematurely
last year from breathing the noxious haze related to fires
set to clear land for agriculture.

$1.2 billion a year costs rising to 16.1 billion costs in a year

Table 2 also gives  the economic cost of the fires in Asia as $11.9 billion for the decade ($1.2 biliion a year?) but the World Bank estimated the 2015 fires alone cost Indonesia $16.1 Billion. They also say

Quote
Calculating the GHG emissions from Indonesia’s
fires is difficult and hinges primarily on quantifying
the amount and depth of peatland burned. While
all fires produce GHG emissions, the CO2 emissions
from fire are usually balanced by regrowth after
the fire. However, this is not the case for peat fires
because they burn carbon that has been deposited
over thousands of years and cannot be replaced.
Peatlands have long been a target for land conversion
– draining seemingly unproductive swamp land and
then clearing it with fire for agriculture. Dry peatland is
quick to burn and difficult to extinguish.


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Avalonian

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Re: Wildfires
« Reply #447 on: January 04, 2018, 02:26:59 PM »
Thanks for the analysis, Geoff - I suspected that the paper wasn't actually realistic, but didn't like to cast aspersions without anything to back them up.

 Among the most obvious alarm wells were indeed that the vast fires in Indonesia (especially) are directly related to increasing agricultural land use, and the huge swathes of fire-affected taiga and tundra in Siberia and North America... which I was fairly certain were increasing. Sounds like a case of extreme cherry-picking, but we'll have to look up the references they're citing to get to the bottom of it.

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Re: Wildfires
« Reply #448 on: January 07, 2018, 07:21:03 PM »
NWS Los Angeles : Flash Flood Watch in effect Monday Night-Tuesday for recent burn areas of SBA, Ventura, LA counties. Significant threat for flash flooding/debris flows. Peak rainfall rates 0.50-1.00 inch per hour. Make preparations now and follow directions of local officials. #CAstorm #LArain
https://twitter.com/nwslosangeles/status/950065347629060098
Infographic at the link.
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Tor Bejnar

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Re: Wildfires
« Reply #449 on: January 07, 2018, 10:48:26 PM »
Thomas Fire
same area and % containment, but updated info.

from inciweb:

Current as of   1/6/2018, 9:09:54 P
Cause   Unknown
Date of Origin   Monday December 04th, 2017 approx. 06:35 AM
Location   Ojai, Santa Paula, Ventura, Montecito, Carpenteria, Santa Barbara, Fillmore
Incident Commander   California IMT3 IC Valencia
Current Situation
Total Personnel   326
Size   281,893 Acres
Percent of Perimeter Contained   92%
Estimated Containment Date   Saturday January 20th, 2018 approx. 12:00 AM
« Last Edit: January 08, 2018, 05:11:49 AM by Tor Bejnar »
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