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be cause

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Re: Wildfires
« Reply #600 on: November 10, 2018, 11:21:01 AM »
Excellent news. Much more of this kind of thing is needed. On the cusp of winter too hey? Well well well.

A massive fire though Sth Florida and especially Mar-a-Lago would be nice.



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Neven

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Re: Wildfires
« Reply #601 on: November 10, 2018, 12:30:28 PM »
Because Lurk has responded, I'll let the FO stand.

Is it such a controversial opinion to say that if catastrophes are needed to wake people up (both climate risk deniers and 'moderates' who believe AGW is real, but essentially don't want to see the status quo changed in any menaingful way), then so be it? I mean, it's out of our hands anyway.
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gerontocrat

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Re: Wildfires
« Reply #602 on: November 10, 2018, 12:51:43 PM »
Because Lurk has responded, I'll let the FO stand.

Is it such a controversial opinion to say that if catastrophes are needed to wake people up (both climate risk deniers and 'moderates' who believe AGW is real, but essentially don't want to see the status quo changed in any menaingful way), then so be it? I mean, it's out of our hands anyway.

Maybe Lurk has a point - there is a saying "it it ain't broke, don't fix it". This can be changed to "people won't fix it 'til it's broke".

However, to gloat over an event which included people being burnt to death while trying to escape in their autos does not seem acceptable, at least to me.

Quote from Lurk:-
Quote
If a few have to die, to sacrifice themselves for the greater long term good of Billions and the planet herself, so be it. I'm not going to cry over it.

That comment could have come from just about any tin-pot dictator.
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Neven

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Re: Wildfires
« Reply #603 on: November 10, 2018, 01:09:15 PM »
Quote from Lurk:-
Quote
If a few have to die, to sacrifice themselves for the greater long term good of Billions and the planet herself, so be it. I'm not going to cry over it.

That comment could have come from just about any tin-pot dictator.

But many people think like this all the time, some consciously even. That's okay as long as nobody says it outright? I'll concede that the form of Lurk's content isn't pleasant, but there's nothing wrong with the content per se. And if he would express himself thusly at every turn, I would berate him at some point. But I can get let this one go, and get the gist of it, and so should others.

And it's very nice to feel for others outside of our monkeysphere, but oftentimes we feel that way because we think we ought to.

I also want people to act and demand the system is changed radically before the real catastrophes start to hit, and I will do everything I can to make it so, but I can't control a climate that's out of control, so if catastrophes happen and they wake people up faster, so be it.
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wdmn

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Re: Wildfires
« Reply #604 on: November 10, 2018, 01:17:53 PM »
Unlikely to make a difference, unfortunately. Check out Trump's tweet:

Quote
There is no reason for these massive, deadly and costly forest fires in California except that forest management is so poor. Billions of dollars are given each year, with so many lives lost, all because of gross mismanagement of the forests. Remedy now, or no more Fed payments!

RealityCheck

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Re: Wildfires
« Reply #605 on: November 10, 2018, 01:23:30 PM »
I have expressed my views privately to Neven and Jim P, so all I will say is I concur with Gerontocrat completely on this. In my opinion, the original post nr 605 contained no redeeming rationale whatsoever. For the record I consider the planet's situation as nothing less than an energing existential crisis, happening mostly in slow motion - I am no denier. However, there are better ways to wish for people to become activated - not wishing harm or suffering, or suggesting it would helpful for it to happen here or there.
RC
Sic transit gloria mundi

Sam

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Re: Wildfires
« Reply #606 on: November 10, 2018, 01:59:18 PM »
For the record I consider the planet's situation as nothing less than an energing existential crisis, happening mostly in slow motion - I am no denier. However, there are better ways to wish for people to become activated - not wishing harm or suffering, or suggesting it would helpful for it to happen here or there.
RC

You are correct. We are in the midst of a slowly evolving catastrophe.

The arguments most often that I hear fall on this same spectrum. Do we bang the drum, yell at the wind, and curse the stars? Or do we stand by as our neighbors fall victim to disasters of our own creation, either silently, grimly, or even gleefully (schadenfreude of a sort I guess)?

My own experience is that none of these work. Buckling down to do the hard work sometimes works. In this case alas the predicament we are in is too large for that to have any significant meaning. People seldom learn except by their own misfortune. Few learn by others sad experience.  Fewer yet learn by wisdom.


And in the case of climate change, the delays in the system are so large that we have already set the stage for the house to burn down completely, before we ever knew that we set the house ablaze while we are locked inside.


What is the problem

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Re: Wildfires
« Reply #607 on: November 10, 2018, 02:22:54 PM »
Unlikely to make a difference, unfortunately. Check out Trump's tweet:

Quote
There is no reason for these massive, deadly and costly forest fires in California except that forest management is so poor. Billions of dollars are given each year, with so many lives lost, all because of gross mismanagement of the forests. Remedy now, or no more Fed payments!
I am absolutely no fan from Trump but here hé has a point.
Every year there are big fires in California and every time it seems to be a surprise. You can do nothing and blame Global warming or you can act on it and try to prevent.
I am living in the Netherlands and this would never happen over here.

vox_mundi

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Re: Wildfires
« Reply #608 on: November 10, 2018, 02:38:09 PM »
Everyone alive today shares the blame because the root cause is overpopulation & degradation of the biosphere.

That door closed back in 1970's. Blame or Schadenfreude distracts.


https://wildfiretoday.com/2018/11/09/wildfire-smoke-map-4/

The map above shows the prediction for the distribution of wildfire smoke at noon PST November 9.
« Last Edit: November 10, 2018, 03:54:06 PM by vox_mundi »
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Jim Pettit

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Re: Wildfires
« Reply #609 on: November 10, 2018, 02:48:01 PM »
Unlikely to make a difference, unfortunately. Check out Trump's tweet:

Quote
There is no reason for these massive, deadly and costly forest fires in California except that forest management is so poor. Billions of dollars are given each year, with so many lives lost, all because of gross mismanagement of the forests. Remedy now, or no more Fed payments!
I am absolutely no fan from Trump but here hé has a point.
Every year there are big fires in California and every time it seems to be a surprise. You can do nothing and blame Global warming or you can act on it and try to prevent.
I am living in the Netherlands and this would never happen over here.

No, Trump doesn't have a point. Trump's pissed because California is a progressive state that can't stand him or his policies. It's a state that kicked his ass in 2016, and kicked it even harder last Tuesday. It's a state that has Hollywood and Silicon Valley, places that neither need nor want his and the GOP's regressive bullshit. It's a state with millions of minorities. His tone-deaf, brain-dead, asshole remarks about the fires weren't to make a point; they were to childishly lash out against tens of millions of people who will never bow and scrape before him. Period.

From a strictly logical point of view, blaming forestry mismanagement for the rapidly increasing number of large, destructive, and deadly blazes in the state (and entire Southwest) is about as stupid as blaming Oklahoma farmers for tornadoes.

The man is an imbecile.

gerontocrat

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Re: Wildfires
« Reply #610 on: November 10, 2018, 02:54:28 PM »
Unlikely to make a difference, unfortunately. Check out Trump's tweet:

Quote
There is no reason for these massive, deadly and costly forest fires in California except that forest management is so poor. Billions of dollars are given each year, with so many lives lost, all because of gross mismanagement of the forests. Remedy now, or no more Fed payments!
I am absolutely no fan from Trump but here hé has a point.
Every year there are big fires in California and every time it seems to be a surprise. You can do nothing and blame Global warming or you can act on it and try to prevent.
I am living in the Netherlands and this would never happen over here.
Trump, as usual, is talking out of his posterior.

The US Forest budget performs 2 functions - managing forests and fighting forest fires. The fighting forest fires portion has swallowed the managing forests function.  Add to that people moving into small towns in forested areas - much of the fighting forest fires money is now simply used for protecting life and property. This has also made it much harder to do controlled burns to rid the forest of fuel on the ground.

An attempt was made to separate the two budgets, so that managing forests could be maintained. The legislation failed, per usual.

And the Netherlands does not have a lot of mountain forests - I remember a small wood near Arnhem.
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bligh8

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Re: Wildfires
« Reply #611 on: November 10, 2018, 04:24:42 PM »
I hardly know what to say about such horror and tragedy.

Shared Humanity

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Re: Wildfires
« Reply #612 on: November 10, 2018, 04:25:08 PM »
GRAPHIC but necessary.

Not necessary IMHO.

Shared Humanity

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Re: Wildfires
« Reply #613 on: November 10, 2018, 04:29:06 PM »
Maybe Lurk has a point - there is a saying "it it ain't broke, don't fix it". This can be changed to "people won't fix it 'til it's broke".

However, to gloat over an event which included people being burnt to death while trying to escape in their autos does not seem acceptable, at least to me.

I agree. It's no different than if someone were to gloat that the Ten Thousand Oaks gun deaths were needed and many more as well so that we could tackle the gun problem in this country.

wdmn

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Re: Wildfires
« Reply #614 on: November 10, 2018, 04:36:16 PM »
Unlikely to make a difference, unfortunately. Check out Trump's tweet:

Quote
There is no reason for these massive, deadly and costly forest fires in California except that forest management is so poor. Billions of dollars are given each year, with so many lives lost, all because of gross mismanagement of the forests. Remedy now, or no more Fed payments!
I am absolutely no fan from Trump but here hé has a point.
Every year there are big fires in California and every time it seems to be a surprise. You can do nothing and blame Global warming or you can act on it and try to prevent.
I am living in the Netherlands and this would never happen over here.

These ecosystems include fire (SoCal is not forest, it is chaparral). California was in a decade long drought until last year, and how has drought conditions across the state again. When you add strong winds, it doesn't matter what sort of management you apply, you get strong fires capable of jumping fire breaks, roads, lakes, etc. In that sense, you're right that it shouldn't be a surprise that there are fires.

The fires have been getting worse, both in terms of size and devastation, as models have predicted they would for well over a decade.

For Trump to say "There is no reason... except" is absurd. Especially because it was the first (and only thing) he (has) said about them, and it was >36 hours after the first one started.


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Re: Wildfires
« Reply #615 on: November 10, 2018, 04:37:59 PM »

From a strictly logical point of view, blaming forestry mismanagement for the rapidly increasing number of large, destructive, and deadly blazes in the state (and entire Southwest) is about as stupid as blaming Oklahoma farmers for tornadoes.

The man is an imbecile.

Especially since the most prominent vegetation that fuels these fires are not trees but the explosive growth of grasses that occur after each rainy season. Paradoxically, the most deadly fires occur after very wet rainy seasons as this results in more fuel for the approaching fire season.

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Re: Wildfires
« Reply #616 on: November 10, 2018, 05:12:05 PM »
What can I do if i get a sense of justice knowing that Trump and all the climate change deniers that stopped humanity from mounting a defense will suffer climate change like the rest of us, maybe more. Even then. I wish that justice was spared because I will share in it, like we all will.


As climate change increases it's toll on humanity more people will certainly jump into action, unless there is a force telling them that there is nothing to fear. Then most of them will take the comforting voice over the horrible fear. Smart... in the short term is the most profitable fraud in history. Dumb... in the long term it will destroy everything.
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Wildfires
« Reply #617 on: November 10, 2018, 05:21:14 PM »
The CAMP fire is now 100,000 acres and 20% contained, according to CALFIRE this morning.  It is threatening several additional cities, including Oroville.
http://www.fire.ca.gov/current_incidents/incidentdetails/Index/2277


Camp Fire grows to 100,000 acres, threatens Oroville
Quote
The Camp Fire is threatening the city of Oroville, Cal Fire warned Saturday morning.

“The fire will continue to burn to the southwest toward Big Bend, Berry Creek and threatening the city of Oroville,” Cal Fire said in its incident information report for Saturday morning.

“The expected strong northeast wind event has the potential to drive fire across Lake Oroville threatening the city of Oroville,” the agency said.

Fire officials said engines and crews will be “prepositioned in preidentified locations in anticipation of the wind event.”

Meanwhile, firefighters are continuing to patrol Paradise, Concow and Magalia.
https://www.redding.com/story/news/2018/11/10/donald-trump-threatens-federal-funding-california-fires-camp-fire/1951713002/
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bbr2314

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Re: Wildfires
« Reply #618 on: November 10, 2018, 05:31:45 PM »
Sunday is going to be very bad, IMO. It is telling that we are now setting records for "worst" fires in consecutive years. Why not 100,000+ homes in one go? One day soon, it is probably going to happen, and when it does, tendrils of gridlock will be transformed into ad-hoc cemeteries.

Sigmetnow

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Re: Wildfires
« Reply #619 on: November 10, 2018, 05:39:59 PM »
LACounty Fire PIO (@LACoFDPIO)
11/9/18, 10:52 PM
#WoolseyFire *UPDATE* Approx. 35,000 acres, 0% contained, very significant number of homes in the operational area damaged or destroyed by fire. More than 200,000 residents and 75,000 homes under mandatory evacuation. 0700 @CAL_FIRE type 1 IMT 5 will assume command of this fire.
https://twitter.com/lacofdpio/status/1061104371910332416

Edit: now 70,000 acres, per CALFIRE.
« Last Edit: November 10, 2018, 05:51:07 PM by Sigmetnow »
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Wildfires
« Reply #620 on: November 10, 2018, 05:50:49 PM »
CAL FIRE (@CAL_FIRE)
11/10/18, 11:16 AM
#HillFire [update] at Hill Canyon Rd and Santa Rosa Rd, Santa Rosa Valley (Ventura County) is now 4,531 acres and 25% contained. Unified Command: CAL FIRE and @VCFD
vcemergency.com
https://twitter.com/cal_fire/status/1061291434068783104
Image below.
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Wildfires
« Reply #621 on: November 10, 2018, 05:58:25 PM »
Want to help fire victims? Don’t send any more stuff
Quote
Cash is best, disaster aid groups say, because it can be spent on what disaster victims need at the moment they need it.

Following the Carr Fire, for instance, a mother of three young children needed a car seat and gas, so volunteers used donated funds to buy her a new one and fill up her tank, said Dusty Steele, a Shasta County volunteer who’s helping distribute donations to victims.
https://www.sacbee.com/latest-news/article215793825.html

Send cash and gift cards; not stuff. After every disaster, huge piles of donationed goods just get thrown out.
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Bruce Steele

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Re: Wildfires
« Reply #622 on: November 10, 2018, 06:38:05 PM »
I was born in Southern Calif. and have lived here most of my life. In the fall we get Santa Ana wind conditions and we usually get fires. Southern Calif.  has not escaped drought conditions for eight years although Northern Calif. did get out of drought conditions for a couple years. S. Cal chaparel is a very fire prone habitat and building houses there is an invitation to disaster. We will however build there and as long as insurance pays for our risk taking we won't change.
 I don't know how long this drought will last. The return of the ridiculously resistant ridge is in my opinion a better indicator of climate change than the rather predictable fires. If the drought drags on long enough our S.Cal. reserviors will go dry and finding water to control the fires will dictate when we lose the ability to live in the hills.
 For ten thousand years the native Americans that lived here burned the chaparel in the spring when the ground was wet enough to limit the risk of fires getting out of control. The grasses that came after the fires supported deer, rabbits and game that provided food for the Indians. Mechanically cutting down the chaparel and composting it would be a better option than waiting for it to burn . It is of course the mega rich who occupy the Malibu hills. If they lose their mansions they kinda deserve it for ignoring the obvious, for being the gross carbon emitters they are and for sniveling about their views being damaged by brush removal or controlled burns. That some poor schmuck from Compton has to pay taxes to help the rich people in Malibu, Thousand Oaks, Montecieto or Santa Barbara just ain't right but fleecing the masses is as chronic as the climate denial that permeates our society.

 
« Last Edit: November 10, 2018, 06:45:46 PM by Bruce Steele »

Sigmetnow

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Re: Wildfires
« Reply #623 on: November 10, 2018, 08:33:04 PM »
Photos from the Camp fire.

Photographer captures devastation from the front lines of the Camp Fire
Quote
Edelson has photographed California wildfires for more than 10 years and says the fast-pace of the Camp Fire resembled the Carr Fire that blackened 229,651 acres near Redding in the summer.

"I've been doing this a long time, and they wildfires have gotten a lot crazier," he says. "It used to be relatively predictable. Now, you don't know what to expect. Every year, a new fire breaks out that defies all the rules and behavior of fires. Every year is the new normal, the new extreme. More deaths. More destruction."
https://www.sfgate.com/california-wildfires/article/Camp-Fire-Josh-Edelson-Photographer-Paradise-13377948.php

More:
Paradise lost: Before-and-after photos show a town devoured by a raging wildfire
https://www.sfgate.com/california-wildfires/article/Camp-Fire-Paradise-before-and-after-photos-13378605.php
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Alison

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Re: Wildfires
« Reply #624 on: November 10, 2018, 09:57:03 PM »
Remarkable images - thanks for posting

vox_mundi

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Re: Wildfires
« Reply #625 on: November 11, 2018, 01:51:14 AM »
California Firefighters President Rips Trump’s Fire Tweet: ‘Ill-Informed, Ill-Timed and Demeaning’

Quote
“The president’s message attacking California and threatening to withhold aid to the victims of the cataclysmic fires is Ill-informed, ill-timed and demeaning to those who are suffering as well as the men and women on the front lines,” California Professional Firefighters President Brian K. Rice said in a statement on Saturday.

“At a time when our every effort should be focused on vanquishing the destructive fires and helping the victims, the president has chosen instead to issue an uninformed political threat aimed squarely at the innocent victims of these cataclysmic fires.”

“The president’s assertion that California’s forest management policies are to blame for catastrophic wildfire is dangerously wrong,” Rice continued. “Wildfires are sparked and spread not only in forested areas but in populated areas and open fields fueled by parched vegetation, high winds, low humidity and geography. Moreover, nearly 60 percent of California forests are under federal management, and another two-thirds under private control. It is the federal government that has chosen to divert resources away from forest management, not California.”

“At this moment, thousands of our brother and sister firefighters are putting their lives on the line to protect the lives and property of thousands. Some of them are doing so even as their own homes lay in ruins. In my view, this shameful attack on California is an attack on all our courageous men and women on the front lines.

“Natural disasters are not “red” or “blue” – they destroy regardless of party. Right now, families are in mourning, thousands have lost homes, and a quarter-million Americans have been forced to flee. At this desperate time, we would encourage the president to offer support in word and deed, instead of recrimination and blame.”

- California Professional Firefighters President Brian K. Rice

International Association of Fire Fighters calls President Donald Trump's comments "Irresponsible, Reckless and Insulting."

Quote
The International Association of Fire Fighters is calling President Donald Trump's comment about massive wildfires burning throughout California "irresponsible, reckless and insulting."

 The firefighters union responded to what were Trump's first 'thoughts' about the wildfires, including a blaze that incinerated most of the Northern California town of Paradise and killed at least nine people, saying that his "crass" suggestion in cutting off federal payments to the state "shows a troubling lack of real comprehension about the disaster at hand."
« Last Edit: November 11, 2018, 02:24:49 AM by vox_mundi »
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jai mitchell

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Re: Wildfires
« Reply #626 on: November 11, 2018, 02:18:50 AM »

 For ten thousand years the native Americans that lived here burned the chaparel in the spring when the ground was wet enough to limit the risk of fires getting out of control.

Ethnographic studies and other historical documents show that California Indians were responsible for extensive burning and type-conversion of chaparral and other shrublands to grasslands in order to increase favored game species, protect themselves from predators (the favored habitat of  the California grizzly bear was chaparral), and as a tool of warfare.

http://www.californiachaparral.com/enativeamericans.html
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Re: Wildfires
« Reply #627 on: November 11, 2018, 02:57:04 AM »
https://wildfiretoday.com/2018/11/10/wildfire-smoke-map-november-10-2018/


At 11:20 a.m. PST Saturday the air quality north of Sacramento was Unhealthy to Very Unhealthy.


Above is the forecast for the distribution of smoke from wildfires at 6 p.m. PST November 10, 2018.



Paradise, CA has only seen 0.88" of rain since May 1st. The Average rainfall between May 1st & Oct 31st is 7.13"! This is the conditions that have lead to a absolutely horrific fire known as the #CampFire #CAwx #CalFire #CaliforniaFires 
https://mobile.twitter.com/JamesSinko/status/1060942166892204033
« Last Edit: November 11, 2018, 03:05:18 AM by vox_mundi »
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vox_mundi

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Re: Wildfires
« Reply #628 on: November 11, 2018, 03:13:33 AM »
At one point in history, we had a Republican President who - through a little experience - vaguely understood protecting homes from wildfire.


Mr. Nixon was wetting down his shake shingle roof as a wildfire burned near his San Clemente, California home.

https://mobile.twitter.com/jduhnkrack/status/1061330892931493888
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

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bbr2314

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Re: Wildfires
« Reply #629 on: November 11, 2018, 03:15:50 AM »
I think human habitation may have a far greater impact on SSTA / the RRR than previously thought. When looking at the East Coast / Canada / etc you can clearly see where rivers interact with the oceans, they generally cool off substantially (source regions play a key part, but the flow in general is crucial). With river flows dwindling consistently into the 2010s as big agriculture / etc have siphoned off all the water, this is probably an additional reason that SSTA / RRR have become so outrageous so consistently in CA, in particular. A self-reinforcing loop, if you will, or at least it must play some part. The decline in mountain snowpack / western glaciers is surely another factor.

However, I think the lack of ice in the Bering is probably the PRIMARY driver (?)

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Re: Wildfires
« Reply #630 on: November 11, 2018, 07:17:19 AM »
Death toll in California wildfires climbs to 25

Butte County Sheriff Kory L. Honea said the 14 bodies were recovered in the Camp Fire, thought to be the most destructive wildfire in state history. Nine deaths had previously been reported in that fire.

... Honea said that of the 14 new deaths, four were in the Concow area, east of Paradise, and 10 were in the Paradise area. He said 110 people remain unaccounted for but cautioned that some may be duplicative. On Friday, officials said five bodies were found in or near cars that were overcome by flames, and four others were found at residences in Paradise.
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Re: tRump's poor "forest management" tweet...

... The Pasadena Firefighters Association strongly objected to the president’s remarks, tweeting: “Mr. President, with all due respect, you are wrong. The fires in So. Cal are urban interface fires and have NOTHING to do with forest management."

"Come to SoCal and learn the facts & help the victims," the tweet, attributed to Scott Austin, the president of the International Association of Fire Fighters 809, read.
https://mobile.twitter.com/PFA809/status/1061307981638193152

Trump in August made similar claims about California's water and environmental management in relation to fires, claims which were rejected by experts.
https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/experts-reject-trump-claim-california-water-policies-hurt-firefighting-n898101
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Private firefighters and five-star hotels: how the rich sit out wildfires 
https://amp.theguardian.com/world/2018/sep/20/private-firefighters-wildfire-insurance-climate-change-capitalism
« Last Edit: November 11, 2018, 08:21:22 AM by vox_mundi »
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Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

solartim27

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Re: Wildfires
« Reply #631 on: November 11, 2018, 08:32:13 AM »
Disturbing thread about an uncontained nuclear meltdown and other historic toxic pollution at the Santa Susana Field Laboratory near the Woolsey fire

https://mobile.twitter.com/BradleySA/status/1060715044218884096
FNORD

Neven

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Re: Wildfires
« Reply #632 on: November 11, 2018, 10:14:54 AM »
To be sung to the tune of "Spam" https://youtu.be/anwy2MPT5RE?t=66

Trump! Trump! Trump! Trump! Trump! Trump! Trump! Trump! Trump! Trump! Trump! Trump! Trump! Trump! Trump! Trump! Trump! Trump! Trump! Trump! Trump! Trump! Trump! Trump! Trump! Trump! Trump! Trump! Trump! Trump! Trump! and Trump!

It would be more interesting if his remarks on the wildfire would be used to beat him around the ears with, hang it around his neck. But I suspect it's all about that Whitaker guy now or whatever the distraction du jour it is that ASLR is copypasting.
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Wildfires
« Reply #633 on: November 11, 2018, 01:26:40 PM »
Death toll in California wildfires climbs to 25
https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/deaths-suspected-california-wildfires-winds-set-pick-back-n934846

This was Paradise: ‘How do you quantify everything being gone?’
Quote
The Camp Fire sparked around 6:30 a.m., near Camp Creek Road off Highway 70. The sky turned yellow first, which was alarming, but residents here are used to smoke. Northern California had been on fire all summer. In July, darkness had cloaked the sun for days as the Carr Fire roared in Redding.
Then everything went black.

The Butte County Sheriff’s Office issued a red-alert to 23,682 contacts over email, text and phone call. More than 1,038 people calls clogged the 911 line, and more than 600 requests for welfare checks were made. As the Camp Fire roared into Paradise, the California Highway Patrol reversed the in-bound lanes on Skyway Road and Highway-32.

Officials had planned for this — 11 evacuation zones and more alerts. But the Camp Fire moved faster than humans can, burning nearly an acre per second.

Chaos ensued. Cell service cut out in much of the town. Headlights barely pierced the midnight smoke. Residents sheltered in the Walgreens and K-Mart parking lots, waiting for county buses to rescue them. Some drivers abandoned their cars in the gridlock of traffic, running down Skyway Road or pushing their loved ones in wheelchairs down the sidewalk. ...
https://www.sfchronicle.com/california-wildfires/article/This-was-Paradise-How-do-you-quantify-13381061.php


A dozen or so articles on people, pets, and devastation in the Paradise (Camp) fire in this thread:
https://twitter.com/sfchronicle/status/1061268837855830016
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Wildfires
« Reply #634 on: November 11, 2018, 08:14:30 PM »
Randall Gates (@rgatess)
11/11/18, 1:51 PM
The high amplitude meridonal jet stream flow we are now beginning to see more frequently is both a predicted effect of #ClimateChange and a factor influencing extreme weather events, including the current #CaliforniaFires h/t @MichaelEMann
https://twitter.com/rgatess/status/1061692842773368832
Image below; GIF at the link.
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Wildfires
« Reply #635 on: November 11, 2018, 08:36:46 PM »
Dave Toussaint (@engineco16)
11/11/18, 1:23 PM
#CampFire Air attack ordering 5 very large air tankers (LATs) and 2 very large air tankers (VLATs). We also have two IR planes over the fire right now.
https://twitter.com/engineco16/status/1061685906954829824
Image below:  past tracks of two aircraft attacking the Camp fire 1 hour ago.
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Wildfires
« Reply #636 on: November 12, 2018, 01:10:50 AM »
NWS (@NWS)
11/11/18, 3:18 PM
Strong offshore flow, promoting significant wildfire potential, will continue across much of southwestern California on Monday resulting in extremely critical conditions.
There is an elevated risk in northern California.
https://twitter.com/nws/status/1061714717675319297
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Wildfires
« Reply #637 on: November 12, 2018, 03:36:07 AM »
As of Sunday night, the Camp Fire has killed at least 29 people and destroyed 6,713 buildings in and around the Northern California city of Paradise, but those numbers could still increase as officials continue their surveys. More than 200 people remain missing, warned the local sheriff’s office.

It’s now the deadliest and most destructive wildfire in state history.


Woolsey fire:

City of Calabasas (@CityofCalabasas)
11/11/18, 8:33 PM
ENTIRE CITY OF CALABASAS NOW UNDER MANDATORY EVACUATION NOTICE. Please see statement from City Manager Gary Lysik
https://twitter.com/cityofcalabasas/status/1061794018508468226
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Re: Wildfires
« Reply #638 on: November 12, 2018, 10:18:43 AM »
Another round of extreme fire weather
The next several days will be a grueling period for California firefighters and residents, especially in the hilly terrain stretching from Santa Barbara to San Diego. An upper-level low settling into the central U.S. is pushing a surface high into California, much like the one that triggered high winds on Thursday. The air making its way into the state from Nevada is exceptionally dry. The 12Z Sunday morning sounding held just 0.10” of precipitable water at Reno, NV, and 0.13” at Las Vegas, which is about a third of the average amount for this time of year. As this air is pushed over California’s mountain ranges, it will warm upon descent, and the relative humidity will plummet to the 5% range in some areas. Temperatures across California will not be extremely warm the next several days—in part because the widespread smoke will block solar heating—but the air is so dry that relative humidity will still be very low.

https://www.wunderground.com/cat6/High-Winds-Through-Tuesday-Will-Worsen-Californias-Historic-Wildfire-Disaster?cm_ven=cat6-widget

Neven

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Re: Wildfires
« Reply #639 on: November 12, 2018, 12:11:14 PM »
Still not enough. We need more destruction, more often, in more places.

It needs to get much worse and more deadly until all the people really notice and then consciously choose to take Global warming and the economic myths driving us to global destruction much more seriously and then ACT accordingly - eg to repeatedly riot on the streets and topple the Governments who are refusing to act on our and our descendants behalf. 

Or is that just too damn radical?

In this vein, I'd like to ask again: Are Trump's inane remarks on the wildfires causing a shitstorm in the media? Is this policy-related stuff hung around his neck like a stone? Or is it all about the stuff Buddy, ASLR and Rob Dekker keep posting in various threads, related to the Mueller investigation or some other non-policy-related thing that Trump does or is being done to Trump?

Because if it's the latter, I agree with Lurk.
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mostly_lurking

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Re: Wildfires
« Reply #640 on: November 12, 2018, 12:17:24 PM »

Because if it's the latter, I agree with Lurk.

Mostly nothing sticks in the media about Trump (SOME for good reason some for not ) and eventually it all reverts back to Mueller ,Russia and maybe tax returns.

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Re: Wildfires
« Reply #641 on: November 12, 2018, 01:05:22 PM »
Mostly nothing sticks in the media about Trump
Not sure about that. Those comments about the Forest Service will have pissed off a lot of people all over the USA. The Forest Service is close-knit and highly loyal to its duties and each other. A hell of a lot of people have seen the forest service risking life and limb for their fellow citizens.

Being belittled by the President will have an effect..
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Re: Wildfires
« Reply #642 on: November 12, 2018, 01:11:03 PM »
Even if you choose the inhumane approach, the people of California have taken notice a long time ago. So wish your disasters on the deniers and wanton destroyers.
And Trump is taking shit from all directions. I've seen lots of angry replies from ordinary people as well as officials. But does he care?

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Re: Wildfires
« Reply #643 on: November 12, 2018, 02:50:23 PM »
Still not enough. We need more destruction, more often, in more places.

It needs to get much worse and more deadly until all the people really notice and then consciously choose to take Global warming and the economic myths driving us to global destruction much more seriously and then ACT accordingly - eg to repeatedly riot on the streets and topple the Governments who are refusing to act on our and our descendants behalf. 

Or is that just too damn radical?

In this vein, I'd like to ask again: Are Trump's inane remarks on the wildfires causing a shitstorm in the media? Is this policy-related stuff hung around his neck like a stone? Or is it all about the stuff Buddy, ASLR and Rob Dekker keep posting in various threads, related to the Mueller investigation or some other non-policy-related thing that Trump does or is being done to Trump?

Because if it's the latter, I agree with Lurk.


No. I don´t agree at all.

I have a daughter living on north Los Angeles and I am concerned that Woolsey Fire could spread into Santa Monica. Why can we think that more destruction is necessary? Or why should we wish for a new lowest record on ASI, and think that we have to wait for it to happen?

The situation is bad enough. I understand that it has been exhausting all the effort of creating a Forum and be concerned all these years. But we cannot quit, and we cannot think that it is necessary to have more damage.

We must spread our point of view. We must make summaries of what it has happened and continue fighting to make governments and general public react against AGW.
« Last Edit: November 12, 2018, 06:43:53 PM by Juan C. García »
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

Sleepy

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Re: Wildfires
« Reply #644 on: November 12, 2018, 02:57:34 PM »
They don't care and neither does my neighbour, who has something that's reminiscent of a confederate battle flag hanging outside his house.

Anyone who find these videos disturbing?
(Do NOT watch these, if you should and don't understand Swedish, select the second one.)


Posted 20181021 and now 242 162 views.

It's the same crap here:


Posted 20181012 and now 46 671 views.

The IPCC SR15 Press Conference posted 20181008 now has 11 876 views. When it was live it hovered around 450 views...

Just to make this slightly on topic, two Paradise's gone in the US. The first was hauled away by Peabody.

Posted 20070720 and now 2 374 352 views, that's what the IPCC press conference should've had, if people did care about a summary.
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Re: Wildfires
« Reply #645 on: November 12, 2018, 03:37:27 PM »
@Sleepy
Terrifying. I could only watch a couple of minutes.

There are lots of people who will not be convinced by anything that happens. I've already noticed a conspiracy theory going around to explain these fires as the result of a "directed energy weapon" being used to manipulate the environment. (I heard similar things about hurricane Michael).

"Mother Nature doesn't behave like that," said one poster, not understanding that "mother nature" is not fixed for all eternity, and that she does now behave like this. Such people are lost causes, I'm afraid.

Sigmetnow

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Re: Wildfires
« Reply #646 on: November 12, 2018, 04:31:34 PM »
Robert Rohde (@RARohde)
11/12/18, 5:42 AM
This year, like 2017, California has had an unusually hot & dry fire season. Most of the largest and most destructive wildfires in CA history have happened under such conditions. Climate change is making this situation worse.
#CaliforniaFires #ClimateChange
[Image below]

I also created an animated version which helps to emphasize how weather conditions during California's fire season have evolved over time.  #CaliforniaFires #ClimateChange
https://twitter.com/rarohde/status/1061932207940530176
[GIF at the link.]

Weather data for these images is taken from @NOAA's Climate at a Glance Data Explorer, e.g. ncdc.noaa.gov/cag/statewide/….
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Gray-Wolf

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Re: Wildfires
« Reply #647 on: November 12, 2018, 04:37:10 PM »
Saddest part of us 'wishing' Mother N. to hit back with a vengeance (so as to leave folk no doubt that we have pushed her too far?) and so see the need act decisively NOW! is that it will probably be a developing world catastrophe and not in the developed world that set all of this into motion?

Of course if P.I.G./Thwaites begin a rapid, ice cliff failure, collapse threatening all our ocean coast sited nuke power stations then that might do it? ( but then what of the ports/oil terminals? which would they focus on first???)
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Neven

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Re: Wildfires
« Reply #648 on: November 12, 2018, 04:53:26 PM »
No. I don´t agree at all.

I have a daughter living on north Los Angeles and I am concerned that Woolsey Fire could spread into Santa Monica. Why can we think that more destruction is necessary? Or why should we wish for a new lowest record on ASI, and think that we have to wait for it to happen?

My point is that if instead of hanging this around Trump's neck, people prefer the political wrestling, the Kabuki theatre of Mueller, Whitaker and Jim Acosta and whatever the daily media-ratings-propaganda crap is that is copypasted onto this forum every day, then obviously things still aren't deemed bad enough. And thus need to get worse.

I wish it weren't so, but if there's one thing I've learned from running this forum for five years, it's that even people who accept the science of AGW, aren't really serious about AGW or its causes.

But forget the wildfires. Does Mueller finally have Roger Stone by the balls? Has Jim Acosta been declared holy by the Pope yet? And where are the tax returns? Look! There! Russia!
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Wildfires
« Reply #649 on: November 12, 2018, 05:10:18 PM »
Neven,
There has been a significant outcry over Trump’s ignorant ‘forest mismanagement’ comment.  First, the federal government manages over 40% of California's land; the state, 30%.  The Forest Service has been asking for years for more money for forest management, but what money the federal government has allocated was earmarked for fighting fires, instead.  In addition, the Woolsey, etc. fires in southern California are not in “forests,” but in wildland-urban interfaces.  Grasses and weeds grow up quickly after brief periods of rain, then die in subsequent drought; susceptible to any spark.

Trump blames California wildfires on 'gross mismanagement of forests' -
https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-blames-california-wildfires-on-gross-mismanagement-of-forests-2018-11

https://variety.com/2018/politics/news/trump-wildfire-blame-backlash-praise-first-responders-1203025524/

It’s easier for news outlets (and, I suppose, forum commenters ;) ) to whip up clicks/outrage featuring politics rather than reporting on real events, but I assure you, people care more about this crisis than all the political blathering you may see.
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