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Bruce Steele

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Re: Wildfires
« Reply #750 on: November 25, 2018, 03:57:50 AM »
Well it was Thanksgiving , We had a grand meal ,apple pie , the lard crust was close to perfect. It's Calif. and we still have the last of the seasons tomatoes on the porch. No I believe the Pacific will continue to moderate temperatures , at least locally . Yes it is likely continue to dry ... the squeeze of the vise, but I also believe we will on occasion get Big El Niño floods. Perched here on the edge of the continent , as far as we could push west. 
 I think some times of England where I spent a few years of my youth. I think England has changed more , but it has been sixty years from my last visit.



« Last Edit: November 25, 2018, 04:54:05 AM by Bruce Steele »

Sigmetnow

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Re: Wildfires
« Reply #751 on: November 25, 2018, 02:48:15 PM »
Dave Toussaint (@engineco16)
11/24/18, 11:11 PM
#Update #CampFire 11/24

- 87 fatalities, 475 missing
- 153336 acres 98% contained
- 13954 single/multi family homes destroyed
- 514 commercial buildings destroyed
- 4265 other structures destroyed
- Total of 18733 structures destroyed
- 570 structures damaged
https://twitter.com/engineco16/status/1066544988232679424
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Shared Humanity

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Re: Wildfires
« Reply #752 on: November 25, 2018, 02:53:27 PM »
Dave Toussaint (@engineco16)
11/24/18, 11:11 PM
#Update #CampFire 11/24

- 87 fatalities, 475 missing
- 153336 acres 98% contained
- 13954 single/multi family homes destroyed
- 514 commercial buildings destroyed
- 4265 other structures destroyed
- Total of 18733 structures destroyed
- 570 structures damaged
https://twitter.com/engineco16/status/1066544988232679424

The persistently high missing number is what concerns me. You would think that family members and friends would have been able to reach each other by now.

Tor Bejnar

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Re: Wildfires
« Reply #753 on: November 25, 2018, 03:39:04 PM »
San Francisco Chronicle
on the Camp Fire
Quote
...
The rain that moved into Northern California on Wednesday doused the flames and helped firefighters gain more control of the blaze. Officials were concerned that heavy rain could cause mudslides and debris flows in the burn scar areas of Paradise and Magalia.

There were no reports of any slides. And that’s because the rain was steady but not too intense, said Bill Rasch, a meteorologist with the National Weather Service.

“We just got really lucky,” Rasch said. “The rain came down at a slow enough pace and hit the sweet spot — steady rain, not a lot of impact.”

The town of Paradise has received 3.22 inches of rain, Concow had close to 5 inches and Magalia has recorded 5.41 inches, according to the National Weather Service.
...
I concur that the large number of (remaining) missing persons is troubling.  A large death toll, unfortunately, is what I expected when I read the fire was advancing 80 acres (32 ha) per minute on Nov. 8.
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oren

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Re: Wildfires
« Reply #754 on: November 25, 2018, 07:48:11 PM »
Considering that the town was a favorite spot for many elderly and disabled people, the geography, the speed of the fire, the lack of sufficient escape routes, the quick loss of electricity and cell reception, I think the death toll could have been yet much higher were it not for lots of local heroism and some luck.
What amazes me is that it is still burning. The rain was certainly a welcome development - hopefully fire season in California is over for the year.

Sigmetnow

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Re: Wildfires
« Reply #755 on: November 27, 2018, 03:57:59 PM »
“An unstable utility grid will drive up costs and is bad for consumers.  Our priority will be on maintaining reliable and affordable utility service for all Californians, not on the fate of any utility provider — we will proceed with that principle in mind.”

Camp Fire aftermath: PG&E to get close look from California lawmakers
Quote
The future of Pacific Gas and Electric Co., in jeopardy after two years of devastating wildfires, will be one of the most pressing concerns before California lawmakers when they resume meeting next week.

PG&E could face billions of dollars in potential liabilities due to last year’s Wine Country wildfires and the recently contained Camp Fire in Butte County — which left at least 88 people dead — casting doubt on whether the state’s largest utility can stay financially viable in the long run.

Lawmakers have already floated new measures, including one to let PG&E pass on to consumers more wildfire-related costs and another that could break up the company. ...
https://www.sfchronicle.com/california-wildfires/amp/Camp-Fire-aftermath-PG-E-to-get-close-look-from-13423376.php
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kassy

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Re: Wildfires
« Reply #756 on: November 28, 2018, 02:05:37 PM »
Queensland bushfires: Thousands told to flee 'catastrophic' threat

Thousands of Australians have been told to evacuate their homes as powerful bushfires threaten properties in Queensland.

The state's fire danger warning has been raised to "catastrophic" - the highest level - for the first time.

...

The worst threat is from a fast-moving bushfire near the town of Gracemere, said Premier Annastacia Palaszczuk.

Authorities have ordered about 8,000 people in the town and its surrounding areas to evacuate immediately.

...

Unlike in Australia's drier south, intense fire conditions are unusual in central Queensland in late November because it is the wet season.

The region has been experiencing a record-breaking heatwave, with temperatures soaring above 40C (104F) in places.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-australia-46366964

Gray-Wolf

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Re: Wildfires
« Reply #757 on: November 28, 2018, 05:37:11 PM »
I looked at the Ozzy reports and thought of this;

KOYAANISQATSI

ko.yaa.nis.katsi (from the Hopi language), n. 1. crazy life. 2. life in turmoil. 3. life disintegrating. 4. life out of balance. 5. a state of life that calls for another way of living.
 
VIRESCIT VULNERE VIRTUS

Tor Bejnar

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Re: Wildfires
« Reply #758 on: November 28, 2018, 06:31:02 PM »
Camp Fire (Paradise, California) update via Chico-Redding Action News:
Quote
sheriff's office says the number of people missing from the camp fire has dropped by more than 50 [great news!]. it is now at 158. the death toll still stands at 88

national weather service has issued a flash flood watch for areas impacted by the camp fire. [10] o'clock tonight through 10 tomorrow morning
debris flows possible (again) with approximately 1.3" (30 mm) of new rainfall forecast.
also: mobilized ash has clogged some drains in the area, causing water damage to buildings.
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Wildfires
« Reply #759 on: November 29, 2018, 09:27:34 PM »
Australia’s Fire and Heat Season Is Off to a Grim Start | by Bob Henson | Category 6 | Weather Underground
Quote
Perennial fires amid a changing climate

Bushfires are a normal part of Australian climate. They often rage across vast stretches of the thinly populated Outback. Australia’s bushfires pose the greatest threat to life and property when they rip across the more heavily vegetated and populated areas of southeast and far eastern Australia, and especially when they hit communities on the wildland-urban interface. Here, they can be every bit as deadly and destructive as the worst California wildfires.

According to Geoscience Australia, major bushfires from 1967 to 2013 caused 433 deaths, 8000 injuries, and some $4.7 billion in damage (2013 Australian dollars, roughly equal to $5 billion in 2018 USD). If this were scaled up to the U.S. population, it would represent more than 5000 deaths and 100,000 injuries.

Since southern Queenland gets much of its moisture during summer, its fire season tends to be most intense from spring into early summer, so this week’s fires are on target in terms of seasonality. One thing helping to make these fires so fierce and widespread is an intense drought that’s parched the landscape in recent months across much of eastern Australia. In turn, this year's drought falls on the heels of six abnormally dry years across the region.

A special report (see PDF) from the nation’s Bureau of Meteorology (BOM) concluded that “the recent dry conditions in eastern Australia have few precedents for their combination of extent and duration.” In many locations, the six-year dryness is comparable only to multi-year droughts in the late 1960s and from the mid-1920s to mid-1930s.

Insurance broker Aon puts the cost of Australia's 2018 drought thus far at $1.2 billion. According to EM-DAT, the international disaster database, only three other droughts have caused more damage in Australia: 1981 - 1982 ($6 billion 1982 dollars), 2002 ($2 billion 2002 dollars), and 1993 - 1995 ($1.5 billion 1995 dollars). ...
https://www.wunderground.com/cat6/Australias-Fire-and-Heat-Season-Grim-Start
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Wildfires
« Reply #760 on: December 04, 2018, 07:45:42 PM »
They thought they’d die trapped in a parking lot. How 150 survivors of California's deadliest fire made it out alive
https://www.latimes.com/local/lanow/la-me-ln-paradise-survivors-20181202-htmlstory.html
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Tor Bejnar

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Re: Wildfires
« Reply #761 on: December 04, 2018, 08:46:53 PM »
Camp Fire (Paradise, CA) Wikipedia update has good news:  death toll decreased! and number of missing way down.  Looks like fewer than 100 people were killed, all told.
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Wildfires
« Reply #762 on: December 04, 2018, 09:57:11 PM »
Insurance company goes under after California's Camp Fire
Quote
California's Camp Fire didn't just kill dozens of people and destroy thousands of homes. It also left an insurance company in financial ruins, unable to pay millions of dollars to policyholders.

A state judge ruled that Merced Property & Casualty Co. can't meet its obligations after last month's Camp Fire, the deadliest and most destructive wildfire in California history.

Merced's assets are about $23 million, but it faced about $64 million in outstanding liabilities just in the city of Paradise, court filings show. ...
https://www.cnn.com/2018/12/04/us/camp-fire-insurance-company-liquidation/index.html

Also posted in the AGW > Policy & Solutions > Insurance thread.
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oren

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Re: Wildfires
« Reply #763 on: December 05, 2018, 07:52:33 AM »
[Merced's assets are about $23 million, but it faced about $64 million in outstanding liabilities just in the city of Paradise, court filings show. ...
Oh dear. Such concentration of local risk beyond the ability to pay should not be allowed with proper regulation, unless the company has a reinsurance policy.

gerontocrat

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Re: Wildfires
« Reply #764 on: December 05, 2018, 07:41:57 PM »
[Merced's assets are about $23 million, but it faced about $64 million in outstanding liabilities just in the city of Paradise, court filings show. ...
Oh dear. Such concentration of local risk beyond the ability to pay should not be allowed with proper regulation, unless the company has a reinsurance policy.
Some countries also have a fund, paid into by all insurance companies, to cover such eventualities. In the USA? Don't know but rather doubt it. Even Lloyd's of London, where underwriters were at risk of personal bankruptcy in such circumstances, now have a backstop to limit their liability.
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TerryM

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Re: Wildfires
« Reply #765 on: December 06, 2018, 03:44:28 AM »
I'm sure that the board, as well as all of the major stockholders, will dig as deeply as necessary into their personal coffers to see to it that those who entrusted their future to them will be made whole.


Anyone suggesting less is a communist sympathizer intent on undermining our faith in American Capitalism.
Terry

Richard Rathbone

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Re: Wildfires
« Reply #766 on: December 06, 2018, 11:06:19 PM »
[Merced's assets are about $23 million, but it faced about $64 million in outstanding liabilities just in the city of Paradise, court filings show. ...
Oh dear. Such concentration of local risk beyond the ability to pay should not be allowed with proper regulation, unless the company has a reinsurance policy.
Some countries also have a fund, paid into by all insurance companies, to cover such eventualities. In the USA? Don't know but rather doubt it. Even Lloyd's of London, where underwriters were at risk of personal bankruptcy in such circumstances, now have a backstop to limit their liability.
California has one. See the wiki article Tor linked to above.
 

Tor Bejnar

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Re: Wildfires
« Reply #767 on: December 07, 2018, 08:53:48 PM »
The number of missing is down to 6, with no increase in deaths (85), per Wikipedia.
Camp Fire (Paradise, CA) Wikipedia update has good news:  death toll decreased! and number of missing way down.  Looks like fewer than 100 people were killed, all told.
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Wildfires
« Reply #768 on: December 12, 2018, 03:46:47 PM »
CAL FIRE Chief says 1) some areas should be off-limits to housing, 2) citizens should be prepared to shelter in place, 3) the agency is having a "sea change" about prescribed fire, 4) firefighters are "living climate change"

Cal Fire chief: State must mull home ban in fire-prone areas
Quote
Cal Fire Director Ken Pimlott will leave his job Friday after 30 years with the agency. In an interview with The Associated Press, he said government and citizens must act differently to protect lives and property from fires that now routinely threaten large populations.

That may mean rethinking subdivisions in thickly forested mountainous areas or homes along Southern California canyons lined with tinder-dry chaparral. Los Angeles County supervisors on Tuesday were considering whether to allow a 19,000-home development in fire-prone mountains amid heavy criticism of the location's high fire danger.

California residents should also train themselves to respond more quickly to warnings and make preparations to shelter in place if they can't outrun the flames, Pimlott said.

Communities in fire zones need to harden key buildings with fireproof construction similar to the way cities prepare for earthquakes, hurricanes or tornadoes, and should prepare commercial or public buildings to withstand fires with the expectation hundreds may shelter there as they did in makeshift fashion when flames last month largely destroyed the Sierra Nevada foothills city of Paradise in Northern California. ...
https://www.kcra.com/article/cal-fire-chief-state-must-adapt-to-new-wildfire-norm/25475297

Cross-posted in Places thread
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TerryM

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Re: Wildfires
« Reply #769 on: December 12, 2018, 08:20:23 PM »
Perhaps fire fighters should be required to stay on the job, rather than sending equipment and personnel to attend police funeral processions?
Terry

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Re: Wildfires
« Reply #770 on: December 13, 2018, 12:04:45 PM »
  At Least $9bn in Preliminary Insurance Claims from California Fires
https://m.phys.org/news/2018-12-9bn-california.html

Quote
Insurance claims from the recent devastating California wildfires that killed at least 89 people and destroyed 19,000 homes and businesses have reached at least $9 billion, the state's insurance commissioner said Wednesday. 

 He said the figures released in connection with the three wildfires—the Camp Fire, The Woolsey Fire and the Hill Fire— are preliminary.

State and federal authorities announced on Tuesday that it will cost at least $3 billion to clear debris from the blazes.
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vox_mundi

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Re: Wildfires
« Reply #771 on: January 05, 2019, 04:35:35 PM »
After the Fire: Blazes Pose Hidden Threat to the West's Drinking Water
https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/after-fire-blazes-pose-hidden-threat-west-s-drinking-water-n954806

Quote


At least 65 percent of the public water supply in the Western U.S. comes from fire-prone areas

... When Serene Buhrz turned the water on for the first time several days after the fire, the chemical smell from their kitchen tap was overpowering.

Quote
"If [he] hadn't called in to report a chemical smell in the water, we may never have known about it," said Bennett Horenstein, who was director of Santa Rosa Water during the fire. "It makes me wonder how many times this has happened and gone unreported."

Santa Rosa Water found the problem was not confined to the Buhrz home. Throughout Fountaingrove, plastic water pipes had melted as houses burned, releasing a carcinogenic chemical called benzene into the neighborhood's water system.

For nearly a year after the fire, Fountaingrove residents were told not to drink water from the tap, even if it was boiled first. ... In total, the City of Santa Rosa had to spend $8 million replacing hydrants, valves, and other water system components in 352 properties, including 1,265 feet of water main.



According to U.S. Forest Service data, in just 20 years, new wildland-urban interface (WUI) areas grew by more than 46 million acres, covering an area larger than Washington State.

When these homes become wildfire tinder, insulation, roofing and home furnishings release toxins as they go up in flames, creating new sources of water contamination.

In addition to releasing toxins into the water supply, fires kill healthy tree roots. Without the roots, contaminating sediment and ash are flushed by rain into the reservoirs, rivers and lakes that supply cities with drinkable water.

In 2017 the U.S. Geological Survey published a study that predicted wildfires could double the amount of sediment in a third of the largest western watersheds by 2050. In some areas, sediment could increase 1,000 percent, potentially carrying parasites and harmful metals and chemicals with it.
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

oren

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Re: Wildfires
« Reply #772 on: January 06, 2019, 11:32:42 AM »
This is what will happen in the ocean when the waves drown Miami and other coastal cities. Widespread long-lasting pollution. People may retreat to higher ground, but their infrastructure will not.

vox_mundi

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Re: Wildfires
« Reply #773 on: January 06, 2019, 08:56:45 PM »
This is what will happen in the ocean when the waves drown Miami and other coastal cities. Widespread long-lasting pollution. People may retreat to higher ground, but their infrastructure will not.

Exactly! This is what I've been telling my town council. Unfortunately, they're still acting like they live in the 20th century.

It looks like California won't have to wait to long to reap the problems the fire has wrought. (... This is with just 1.2 inches of rain)

Mudslides Shut Down Pacific Coast Highway in Malibu
https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/mudslides-shut-down-pacific-coast-highway-malibu-n955256

Quote
A mudslide forced the closure of Pacific Coast Highway in Malibu Saturday as a flash flood warning remained in effect for areas in both Los Angeles and Ventura counties where hillsides have been left denuded by the recent Woolsey and Hill fires, authorities said.

... A mud flow on Pacific Coast Highway near Mullholland Highway in Malibu trapped two cars in mud, according to the CHP. Both directions of travel were shut between Las Posas Road and Encinal Canyon Road as crews cleaned up the mess. The closure was expected to last through at least Sunday, according to Caltrans.

Another mudslide covered all lanes of traffic along PCH near Tonga Street in Ventura County, prompting a road closure, CHP logs showed.



Those living in the recently burned areas are urged to take steps to protect their property, remain alert an follow any directions given by emergency responders.

also, January and February are high rainfall months



https://www.vox.com/2018/4/24/17270340/california-rain-drought-flooding-climate-change
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

vox_mundi

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Re: Wildfires
« Reply #774 on: January 10, 2019, 01:10:36 AM »
Letting 4000 Americans die in Puerto Rico after Hurricane Maria wasn't good enough for him ...

Trump Threatens To End FEMA Funds for California Wildfires
https://www.axios.com/trump-tweets-california-fema-money-wildfires-95c90124-5c9f-4195-9bb7-0dc9a3cac278.html

Quote
President Trump threatened to cut off FEMA funding for California's wildfire relief in a Wednesday tweet, blaming the state's poor land management.

Quote
"Billions of dollars are sent to the State of California for Forest fires that, with proper Forest Management, would never happen. Unless they get their act together, which is unlikely, I have ordered FEMA to send no more money. It is a disgraceful situation in lives & money!"

The Camp Fire that ravaged northern California was both the deadliest in state history and the costliest with overall losses of $16.5 billion and insured losses of $12.5 billion, according to Munich Re in a press release.

Sen. Kamala Harris (D-Calif.) responded to President Trump's tweet:

Quote
"Californians endured the deadliest wildfire in our state’s history last year. We should work together to mitigate these fires by combating climate change, not play politics by threatening to withhold money from survivors of a deadly natural disaster."

Newly elected Gov. Gavin Newsom tweeted:

Quote
"Mr. President -- Just yesterday, @OregonGovBrown, @GovInslee, and I sent a letter asking the federal government to work with us in taking on these unprecedented wildfires. We have been put in office by the voters to get things done, not to play games with lives."
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

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Bruce Steele

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Re: Wildfires
« Reply #775 on: January 10, 2019, 04:49:51 AM »
A federal judge tells PG&E to cut down or trim all trees that might fall on power lines. PG&E has until Jan. 30th to respond.
https://www.npr.org/2019/01/09/683815660/federal-judge-proposes-restrictions-on-unsafe-pg-e-power-lines
Gavin Newsom , our new governor , is apparently making the PG&E problems a priority in his new administration. Seems to me that there is a conflict between the new green governors credentials and federal judges proposal to cut down tens of thousands of trees.   
 I am buying a tesla power wall because I think our PG&E power grid and intermittent power are inevitable.

Sigmetnow

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Re: Wildfires
« Reply #776 on: January 11, 2019, 02:21:53 AM »
Quote
Brian Chappatta: "BREAKING: PG&E downgraded to junk by Moody's (Ba3 from Baa2). Company is officially a fallen angel."
https://twitter.com/BChappatta/status/1083475964208779264
Quote
"We see a much more challenging environment for PG&E, as potential liabilities grow, liquidity reserves decline and access to capital becomes more uncertain. The company is increasingly reliant on extraordinary intervention by legislators and regulators."
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Wildfires
« Reply #777 on: January 14, 2019, 03:35:46 PM »
PG&E CEO to Leave With Utility at Brink of Bankruptcy
Quote
... The company has seen two-thirds of its market value wiped out since November’s Camp Fire -- the deadliest wildfire in California’s history. Investigators have been probing whether the power giant’s equipment ignited the fire, along with its potential liability for blazes that devastated Northern California’s wine country in 2017 -- costs that may tally as much as $30 billion. Its debt has been downgraded to junk and state regulators have called for a management shakeup.
...
The company’s deepening financial crisis has forced California regulators and policy makers to consider a bailout package and PG&E is weighing whether to file for bankruptcy. The utility is planning to notify employees as soon as Monday that it may make a Chapter 11 filing within 15 days, people familiar with the plan said Saturday. Such a notice would be required by state law.
...
Under Williams, PG&E spent millions of dollars trying to convince state lawmakers to change a legal doctrine known as inverse condemnation, under which utilities are liable for damages if their equipment is found to have sparked a wildfire, even if they weren’t negligent. Williams called the doctrine bad public policy that made utilities the default insurer in the state. She said the wildfires were a symptom of climate change with hotter and drier conditions sparking more frequent and intense blazes. ...
https://www.bloomberg.com/amp/news/articles/2019-01-14/pg-e-ceo-is-said-to-leave-with-utility-at-brink-of-bankruptcy
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Re: Wildfires
« Reply #778 on: January 16, 2019, 12:03:54 AM »
California utility firm suspected of starting deadly wildfires goes bankrupt   
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2019/jan/14/california-wildfires-pacific-gas-and-electric-bankruptcy

Quote
... The board of directors of Pacific Gas and Electric (PG&E) has determined that the move “is ultimately the only viable option to restore PG&E’s financial stability to fund ongoing operations and provide safe service to customers”, the San Francisco-based company stated in a filing at the Security and Exchange Commission.

No bad deed goes unrewarded ...

Ex-California utility CEO to receive $2.5m severance amid firm's bankruptcy 
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2019/jan/15/california-pge-ceo-severance-wildfires-bankrupt

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b_lumenkraft

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Re: Wildfires
« Reply #779 on: January 31, 2019, 06:15:31 AM »
Great summation of this whole PG&E disaster.


Sigmetnow

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Re: Wildfires
« Reply #780 on: January 31, 2019, 02:16:47 PM »
This is my first real natural disaster and it sucks | First Dog on the Moon
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/jan/30/this-is-my-first-real-natural-disaster-and-it-sucks
Vignettes from the fires in Australia
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kassy

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Re: Wildfires
« Reply #781 on: February 21, 2019, 02:12:55 PM »
'It eats everything'—the new breed of wildfire that's impossible to predict

...

New normal

There have been signs of trouble since the 1990s, according to Castellnou.

"This change has been cooking for a long time, but the first time we realised something wrong was happening were the years 2009 and 2012," he said, referring to the Black Saturday bushfires in the Australian state of Victoria that killed 173 people and wildfires in Spain, Portugal, Chile and California, US. Many in the fire community initially thought these were just abnormal events, he says.

But then wildfires in Chile and Portugal in 2017 indicated that those weren't simply extreme years. "That was the new normal arriving. 2018 has confirmed that," he said, referring to the deadly wildfires in Greece and in California.

On October 15, 2017, Castellnou was in central Portugal to conduct analysis then support the local services as the wildfires became firestorms.

...

In the past, he says, a fire that destroyed 25,000 hectares a day was considered extreme. According to his figures, the October fires in Portugal consumed 220,000 hectares of forest, an area 22 times the size of Lisbon and killed more than 40 people. Castellnou says that at their peak, wildfires burned at a rate of 10,000 hectares per hour over seven hours.

"This is something that blew my mind and I cannot use technology to simulate that because models can't predict it,"

...

https://phys.org/news/2019-02-everythingthe-wildfire-impossible.html

vox_mundi

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Re: Wildfires
« Reply #782 on: March 05, 2019, 05:03:00 PM »
Wildfire Risk in California No Longer Coupled to Winter Precipitation
https://phys.org/news/2019-03-north-pacific-jet-stream-moisture.html

From 1600 to 1903, the position of the North Pacific jet stream over California was linked to the amount of winter precipitation and the severity of the subsequent wildfire season, the team found. Wet winters brought by the jet stream were followed by low wildfire activity, and dry winters were generally followed by higher wildfire activity.

After 1904, the connection between winter moisture brought by the jet stream from December through February and the severity of the wildfire season weakened. The weakened connection between precipitation and wildfires corresponds to the onset of a fire suppression policy on U.S. federal lands, the team reports in the March 4 issue of the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.

The connection disappeared altogether after 1977.

Now, fuel buildup from decades of fire suppression in the 20th century plus rising temperatures from climate change means any year may have large fires, no matter how wet the previous winter, the team writes.

... The likelihood that every year may be a high-fire year will be a significant societal challenge, ...



Eugene R. Wahl el al., "Jet stream dynamics, hydroclimate, and fire in California from 1600 CE to present," PNAS (2019)
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

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Sigmetnow

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Re: Wildfires
« Reply #783 on: March 13, 2019, 02:01:48 PM »
Audio:  The first 2 hours of radio traffic from the Paradise, California wildfire, starting from the initial dispatch.  The fire begins near Pulga, in the upper right of the map below, spreading quickly to Concow, then Paradise.

Radio traffic - The first 2 hours of the Camp Fire in Paradise
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dnem

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Re: Wildfires
« Reply #784 on: April 01, 2019, 04:02:58 PM »
https://www.scmp.com/news/china/society/article/3004156/least-26-killed-chinese-forest-fire

Thirty Chinese firefighters killed in Sichuan blaze after change in wind creates ‘huge fireball’
All those reported missing on Sunday while fighting blaze in remote part of country’s southwest confirmed dead

A forest fire in southwest Chin has killed 30 firefighters who became trapped after a sudden change in wind direction created a “huge fireball”, state media reported on Monday.
The firefighters had been reported missing on Sunday while fighting the blaze in a remote, mountainous part of Liangshan prefecture in Sichuan province.
The became trapped after the wind abruptly changed direction, before they lost contact with other rescuers and were engulfed in flames.
The emergency ministry confirmed the following day that it had found the bodies of all 30 missing, China Central Television reported.
The blaze had still not been brought under control on Monday evening, and efforts to tackle the fire continued.

miki

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Re: Wildfires
« Reply #785 on: April 21, 2019, 02:25:20 AM »

Rodius

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Re: Wildfires
« Reply #786 on: April 21, 2019, 05:05:38 AM »
More info on the Siberian wildfire

http://tass.com/emergencies/1054698

anthropocene

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Re: Wildfires
« Reply #787 on: April 22, 2019, 11:35:12 AM »
The UK is burning. It is April. #winterisdying
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-48010513

silkman

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Re: Wildfires
« Reply #788 on: April 22, 2019, 11:47:36 AM »
In England too.

https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2019/apr/22/huge-area-of-yorkshire-moorland-destroyed-by-fire-barbecue

Moorland fires in Northern England are modest in comparison to the greater threats in other more vulnerable regions of the world but we're just into the first days of Spring and this is the third such blaze this year. Will it help to raise awareness of the proximity of the threat of Climate change in the UK?

I hope so.


josh-j

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Re: Wildfires
« Reply #789 on: April 23, 2019, 04:48:33 PM »
This one hits close to home, literally. I watched it spread from my bedroom window and man it was fast at times.

Now the whole hillside is black and, sadly, some other small fires have started/been started on other patches nearby - frankly in those places arson is a possibility, but also one fire by a roadside that could easily have been a discarded cigarette.

This after the fairly big (by UK standards) fire in almost the same area in February. That one was indeed arson, but this time the main fire appears to have been caused accidentally by people with a BBQ.

The point is though, that people aren't used to the ground being so dry especially so early in the year. Moorland being flammable in February is not normal! If this is the direction things are moving in, all these upland areas will be a huge fire risk for most of the year - particularly worrying because this is peatland that can burn long and deep, emitting a large amount of carbon in the process.

If only there were TREES and other vegetation. I think I'm right in saying that a typical woodland in the UK would not have as high a fire risk as these open moors because the trees trap moisture at ground level? Unfortunately, Marsden Moor is almost entirely treeless - and for the last week or so dry, and covered with flammable grass tussocks.

I feel pretty bad for the National Trust which has had to spend thousands of pounds an hour on the helicopters fighting these fires; I can hear one flying outside as I type. On the other hand, I really feel that a change in land use is required to allow trees to grow here again without being eaten by sheep or (on other moors) broken down to keep the heather going for the grouse.
« Last Edit: April 27, 2019, 01:24:11 PM by josh-j »

sesyf

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Re: Wildfires
« Reply #790 on: April 26, 2019, 05:51:50 PM »
Here in Finland sunsers have been unusually red, first idea was sand fom Sahara, now the actual cause has been found and it’s grass and forest fires somewhere in Ukraine and other East European parts...

vox_mundi

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Re: Wildfires
« Reply #791 on: April 30, 2019, 12:29:59 AM »
Winnie the Pooh's Real-Life Hundred Acre Wood Hit by Forest Fire   
https://amp.cnn.com/cnn/2019/04/29/europe/winnie-the-pooh-forest-fire-trnd/index.html



An overnight fire ripped through a forest in England that provided the setting for the Winnie the Pooh children's stories.

The blaze at Ashdown Forest, in East Sussex, started at around 9.30 p.m. on Sunday and affected an area of more than 35 acres, according to the East Sussex Fire and Rescue Service.

Ashdown Forest is in the heart of the High Weald Area of Outstanding Natural Beauty, which covers parts of Kent, Sussex and Surrey in southeast England.


House at Pooh Corner, by Kenny Loggins & Jim Messina 

Christopher Robin and I walked along,
Under branches lit up by the moon.
Posing our questions to Owl and Eeyore,
As the days disappeared far too soon.
Now I wandered much further today than I should,
And I can't find my way to the three-acre wood.

So help me if you can, I've got to get
Back to the house At Pooh Corner by one.
You'll be surprised, there's so much to be done,
Count all the bees in the hive,
Chase all the clouds from the sky,
Back to the days of Christopher Robin,
And Pooh.

Winnie the Pooh doesn't know what to do,
Got a honey jar stuck on his nose.
He came to me asking help and advice,
And from here no one knows where he goes.
So I went in to ask of the Owl, if he's there,
How to loosen a jar from the nose of a bear.

So help me if you can I've got to get,
Back to the house At Pooh Corner by one.
You'll be surprised there's so much to be done,
Count all the bees in the hive,
Chase all the clouds from the sky,
Back to the days of Christopher Robin,
Back to the ways of Christopher Robin,
And Pooh 


Story Behind the Song: 'House at Pooh Corner' 
https://amp.tennessean.com/amp/15237517
« Last Edit: April 30, 2019, 04:04:52 AM by vox_mundi »
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vox_mundi

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Re: Wildfires
« Reply #792 on: May 02, 2019, 10:58:02 PM »
Forest Fires Accelerating Snowmelt Across Western US, Study Finds 
https://m.phys.org/news/2019-05-forest-snowmelt-western.html

Forest fires are causing snow to melt earlier in the season, a trend occurring across the western U.S. that may affect water supplies and trigger even more fires, according to a new study by a team of researchers at Portland State University (PSU) , the Desert Research Institute (DRI), and the University of Nevada, Reno.

Researchers found that more than 11 percent of all forests in the West are currently experiencing earlier snowmelt and snow disappearance as a result of fires. ... They found that not only did snow melt an average five days earlier after a fire than before all across the West, but the accelerated timing of the snowmelt continued for as many as 15 years.

"This fire effect on earlier snowmelt is widespread across the West and is persistent for at least a decade following fire," said Kelly Gleason, the lead author

... In the last 20 years, there's been a four-fold increase in the amount of energy absorbed by snowpack because of fires across the West.

Open Access: Kelly E. Gleason et al, Four-fold increase in solar forcing on snow in western U.S. burned forests since 1999, Nature Communications (2019)
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

Sigmetnow

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Re: Wildfires
« Reply #793 on: May 03, 2019, 08:40:22 PM »
California Dispatches Goats to Eat Brush, Prevent Wildfires
Quote
California firefighters are enlisting help from some unusual allies to prevent more deadly wildfires from ripping across the state -- goats.

The Ventura County Fire Department is releasing hundreds of goats next week north of Los Angeles to eat dead brush that could become fuel for a fires.

“They’ll eat until we like the way the landscape looks, and then we move them to another area,” Captain Ken VanWig, who oversees the department’s vegetation management program, said in an interview. “They’re very effective.”

The concept’s not unique to Ventura County, which has been using goats to trim vegetation for about five years. Departments across the state are doing the same as firefighters work to prevent deadly fires like the one that destroyed the town of Paradise in Northern California last November, killing 85 people, said Scott McLean, a spokesman for California Department of Forestry and Fire Protection.

“It’s another tool in the tool box,” he said.
https://www.bloomberg.com/amp/news/articles/2019-05-03/california-dispatches-goats-to-eat-brush-prevent-wildfires
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Archimid

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Re: Wildfires
« Reply #794 on: May 03, 2019, 10:42:36 PM »
Brilliant. Solar powered brush mowers.
I am an energy reservoir seemingly intent on lowering entropy for self preservation.

Rodius

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Re: Wildfires
« Reply #795 on: May 04, 2019, 01:26:12 AM »
Rabbits ere introduced in Australia as pets.
They also ate the grass that fires burn.
The fires are still happening and worsening.
And we have a rabbit problem as well.

When will we learn to stop being clever and start fixing the actual cause of the problem?

HapHazard

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Re: Wildfires
« Reply #796 on: May 13, 2019, 11:17:07 PM »

Sigmetnow

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Re: Wildfires
« Reply #797 on: May 13, 2019, 11:53:46 PM »
Not sure who-all can watch this, and for how long, but this is an excellent presentation on wildfires and the US historical attitude towards preventing and fighting them.  Much on the California megafires of 2018, and the effects of climate change on forests.

Inside the Megafire | Season 46 Episode 8 | NOVA | PBS
https://www.pbs.org/video/inside-the-megafire-uzvhug/
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dbarce

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Re: Wildfires
« Reply #798 on: May 15, 2019, 08:11:45 AM »

pikaia

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Re: Wildfires
« Reply #799 on: May 17, 2019, 10:42:34 AM »
'Fires near Mexico City have filled the skies with smoke over the metropolitan area, which is home to around 22 million people. Air quality has become hazardous as smoke pollution has far exceeded levels considered to be safe. Officials in Mexico City have declared an environmental emergency, closed schools, and advised people to stay inside.'

https://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/images/145062/wildfire-smoke-shrouds-mexico-city