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nanning

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Re: Wildfires
« Reply #1150 on: January 17, 2020, 07:29:13 AM »
Thanks Florifulgurator.
--

From a local news station "Omrop Fryslân" about the Australian bushfires and the suffering animals:

https://www.omropfryslan.nl/nijs/929862-ljouwerter-skoalbern-komme-yn-aksje-foar-branend-australie

Quote: "Nei in les 'begrijpend lezen' oer dit ûnderwerp en it sjen fan bylden op it Jeugdjournaal wiene de bern oandien. "Guon koene it net oansjen en leine mei de holle op de bankjes", fertelde juf José van der Veen."

Google translation: "After a 'comprehensible reading' lesson on this topic and viewing images on the Youth Journal, the children were taken aback. "Some couldn't see it and lay their heads on the benches," said teacher José van der Veen."
 :'(
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Florifulgurator

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Re: Wildfires
« Reply #1151 on: January 17, 2020, 03:42:31 PM »
Nanning, this looks like child abuse to me. Did they show them pictures of burned animals? I am all for teaching children science, above all climate science. But some of the cruel consequences seen in Australia is perhaps a bit too much.
Google image search on my avatar image gives "wood". In fact it is the lower part of David Hilbert's tombstone.

nanning

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Re: Wildfires
« Reply #1152 on: January 17, 2020, 05:35:50 PM »
I appreciate your feelings for the vulnerability of our young ones.

The Youth Journal is a nation-wide highly praised newsprogram for children and they wouldn't put anything inappropriate on for children.
I have to say though, that I think you underestimate children and I think it is important to tell the truth of the matter and not disneyfy it. Children can handle a lot if it is introduced and put in a clear context and shared with others.
The images I have seen on the Guardian are not too disturbing for children I think.

Abuse is something totally different in my understanding.
"It is preoccupation with possessions, more than anything else, that prevents us from living freely and nobly" - Bertrand Russell
"It is preoccupation with what other people from your groups think of you, that prevents you from living freely and nobly" - Nanning
Why do you keep accumulating stuff?

Florifulgurator

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Re: Wildfires
« Reply #1153 on: January 17, 2020, 08:10:27 PM »
Yes, I've seen it myself when chopping off the head of a chicken: A grown-up man went hysterical, but the children had no problem.

But I wouldn't force them to see the bloated corpses of cuddly Koalas and Kangaroos burnt alive.  :'( The fires are impressive and teaching enough.
« Last Edit: January 17, 2020, 08:17:19 PM by Florifulgurator »
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Rodius

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Re: Wildfires
« Reply #1154 on: January 17, 2020, 11:59:45 PM »
I have spent the last five years introducing climate change to my now 11 year old.
I did it slowly because it is an unpleasant topic.
I also homeschool my kids, so they avoid the propaganda being spouted in Australian schools.

Sometimes he because despondent about life, but for the most part a few things have happened.

1 - he is very pissed off with the Govt inaction. He has been to multiple protests about climate change and will be doing more the older he gets.
2 - he wants to see as much of the world as possible to document the changes. But he will only travel by bike, foot or boat.
3 - we debate every purchase based on environmental impact. This is a total pain in the ass to be honest because according to him we should be living in a self container farm, we cant do that at the moment.
4 - his approach to life is fairly basic.... he has made an assumption based on reading and gut instinct that our civilization only has ten years left. So he has mapped out his life to only be ten years long. Which sound depressing except that his plans involve doing as much as possible in those ten years in terms of climate, doing things like seeing the Barrier Reef, in fact a lot more than some people people do in a life time. Every year he spends the first week updating the ten year plan.
5 - while he gets upset with what is coming, it has lit a fire in his belly as well.

To me, based on what other kids who have good knowledge of climate change, most of them get depressed at some point, then anrgy, then motivated. I suspect this is the case more and more often. In the coming ten years, I suspect there will be an explosion of youth activism and demands that will need to be met or the older generations are going to get booted off the power structure.

After the fires, I have been informed that we are doing a bike tour of SE Australia to take photos, talk to people and document it to share with the public. His concern is that after the fires are out, the spin doctors will ensure we forget about it..... it has happened too many times here already. Too many times to list in fact.
He wants to do something to remind people that this is not a one off event, it is one of a series of events that are worsening year on year.

So, personally, I dont stress how it affects the kids, I only stress that we have left it too late to get angry enough to demand the changes of our Govts and take massive, radical, personal action.
I know my son thinks we dont do enough, and we ride bikes, eat bugger all meat, have a tiny car for my wife to get to work because there is no public transport at 5am in the morning and the car only gets used for work. (12km each way) and more.

Give kids the information, be blunt about it, make a plan they control, then watch the change happen. Greta is only the beginning of youth activism.

oren

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Re: Wildfires
« Reply #1155 on: January 18, 2020, 12:50:46 AM »
Thank you for sharing this Rodius. Very inspiring.

nanning

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Re: Wildfires
« Reply #1156 on: January 18, 2020, 06:25:35 AM »
Yes thank you very much Rodius. Wonderful to read, you and your wife are doing a great parenting job. His understanding/gut feeling is spot on I think. And his couragious life choice in not having any bad behaviour regarding AGW (why are children able to do that and grown-ups not? No excuses). I think your son is a beautiful human. Gave me a warm feeling and at the same time sorrow for their future.

Does he go to some sort of school or social/sport events to talk about it with other children? Does he have Internet contacts? Where does he get his information?
He deserves all the hugs and love in the world and willing cooperative stimulating parents. Are you and your wife like the parents of Greta in making radical life changes?

I am glad that the rains have arrived in Melbourne to keep the bushfires away.
"It is preoccupation with possessions, more than anything else, that prevents us from living freely and nobly" - Bertrand Russell
"It is preoccupation with what other people from your groups think of you, that prevents you from living freely and nobly" - Nanning
Why do you keep accumulating stuff?

Rodius

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Re: Wildfires
« Reply #1157 on: January 18, 2020, 09:19:32 AM »
Yes thank you very much Rodius. Wonderful to read, you and your wife are doing a great parenting job. His understanding/gut feeling is spot on I think. And his couragious life choice in not having any bad behaviour regarding AGW (why are children able to do that and grown-ups not? No excuses). I think your son is a beautiful human. Gave me a warm feeling and at the same time sorrow for their future.

Does he go to some sort of school or social/sport events to talk about it with other children? Does he have Internet contacts? Where does he get his information?
He deserves all the hugs and love in the world and willing cooperative stimulating parents. Are you and your wife like the parents of Greta in making radical life changes?

I am glad that the rains have arrived in Melbourne to keep the bushfires away.

I have passed on your message and read some of your other posts, he wanted to know if you are just saying nice things only or saying nice things but doing good things as well.... he is pleased with you..... anyway, he agrees with you, why is it kids pushing the cart and not adults?

He has a small group of close friends who are not too different in terms of wanting to get into activism. This year the plan is to do the bike tour as a family, but with his friends we are going to learn how to trap rabbits (he wants to prep for the collapse of food supplies), gardening is beginning this year with crops that are yet to be determined BUT he wants to grow local foods only and we have no idea what they are yet. So, not carrots and spouts or anything simple like that. He figures local foods we do better than introduced ones so we may as well learn how to grow and eat them etc.
That will mean locating some local First Nations people to see if they will teach us how to grow native crops... another interesting experience I hope.

He is also learning a few other things with his friends, and planning on more protests being done. He isnt keen on solo action yet but admires what Greta is doing. He cant figure out where her strength comes from... in fact, neither can I.

Information gathering begins with the internet, normally research papers that we figure out together. I am not a scientist so that can mean a lot of learning for us both.

Libraries as well..... we have exhausted the local one so he wants to visit the Melb Uni library.

We also have a friend I met on Facebook who lives about 30km up the road.... he is 80 years old, a Dr of Bio with a specialty in environmental collapse plus several degrees (he is freakishly smart. He is very active on Facebook and is worth following). We visit him every 4 to 6 weeks to help him out around the place and talk for hours about the state things. He is very interesting to talk to and I am lucky he is so patient in answering so many questions. The details given are as deep as my son can deal with.
And there is this forum of course. A great place for keeping in touch with all things science, but mostly climate related.

For me, I am looking forward to the bike tour to SE Australia in about six months.

The rain was good..... sadly it seems to be missing the regions that need it most and where it is hitting is causing flash floods and slips because the trees are gone. The smoke is making a comeback too so the fires are still going strong somewhere. There is something like 10 weeks of fire season left, with the next 7 being the worst time for fires...... I am seriously concerned about what could happen in the coming 2 months. I doubt it will end well, but I hope the worst has already gone by.

« Last Edit: January 18, 2020, 09:29:30 AM by Rodius »

nanning

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Re: Wildfires
« Reply #1158 on: January 18, 2020, 11:28:34 AM »
Thank you for that Rodius, and thank your son from me for being a force of good. He seems like a very smart human. Wonderful to read that you both have this scientist doyen who is welcoming and patient. It'll likely do that ole man good to have such a great interested child to talk to, and a curious Rodius. Your son and the old scientist. Doyen meets doyen :)
I wish you all loads of interesting fun and outside exercise and I think if will be great to come in contact with some aboriginal people. I almost envy you guys.

doyen (plural doyens)
(colloquial) A leading light, or exemplar of a particular practice or movement.

I think he has the strenght of Greta. It grows on you if you have the courage. Greta came into a media mealström and had the courage to face it head on (under the protective umbrella of good parents). Self assurance and strenght will come with courage, curiosity, growing knowledge and connections with others I think. Your son is very young but already well on the way on that path. Difficult but righteous life paths are the best. Don't betray yourself in any way (for popularity, status or love etc) and stay honest and open and vulnerable. And very much in contacty with living nature. Connection with living nature is in your head, it is part of your worldview. I strongly advise him to have no supremacy over other lifeforms, whether it is a kangaroo, an insect or a piece of grass. Evade tidiness like the pest. Hm, I'm on a roll here, sorry, I'll stop now :).
Thanks again Rodius.
« Last Edit: January 18, 2020, 11:33:35 AM by nanning »
"It is preoccupation with possessions, more than anything else, that prevents us from living freely and nobly" - Bertrand Russell
"It is preoccupation with what other people from your groups think of you, that prevents you from living freely and nobly" - Nanning
Why do you keep accumulating stuff?

Aporia_filia

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Re: Wildfires
« Reply #1159 on: January 18, 2020, 12:19:06 PM »
Thanks very much, Rodius, and congratulations for your family.
Depression, anger and action! Showing we're similar animals we all go through the same process if this mess is understood. Collective single actions would change our world. Having such a nice hope gives meaning and joy to your life even if you're fighting against the most powerfuls.
If there's any 'cozy' future should be for them.
My best wishes!

gerontocrat

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Re: Wildfires
« Reply #1160 on: January 18, 2020, 12:37:38 PM »
After it's over ...... it isn't over.

https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2020/jan/14/the-sweet-relief-of-rain-after-bushfires-threaten-disaster-for-our-rivers
The sweet relief of rain after bushfires threaten disaster for our rivers
Fire debris flowing into the Murray-Darling Basin will exacerbate the risk of fish and other aquatic life dying en masse


And..... lo and behold a forecast becoming reality

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/jan/17/hundreds-of-thousands-of-fish-dead-in-nsw-as-bushfire-ash-washed-into-river
Hundreds of thousands of fish dead in NSW as bushfire ash washed into river
Ecologist fears the Macleay River may take decades to recover, with heavy rains likely to affect other waterways

Quote
Hundreds of thousands of native fish are estimated to have died in northern New South Wales after rains washed ash and sludge from bushfires into the Macleay River.

Parts of the Macleay River – favoured by recreational fishers – have been turned into what locals described as “runny cake mix” that stank of rotting vegetation and dead fish.

One freshwater ecologist told Guardian Australia the impact of the fish kill might be felt for decades to come, with long-lived species like Australian bass hit hard.

The NSW Department of Primary Industries has been receiving reports of “hundreds of thousands” of fish dead in the river since December 2019.

Locals say rain in the past 10 days has seen more ash and mud from the parched and burned landscape running into the river.

Larry Newberry, a recreational fisher from Frederickton, near Kempsey, said he drove 100km to George’s Creek to survey the river last weekend.

“I would say from what I’ve seen I would not be surprised that it’s wiped out every fish in at least 100 kilometres of the river,” he said. “The stench was overwhelming – it stank that much it made you heave. It’s the dead fish, the rotting vegetation and the ash from the fires and maybe the fire retardant. It is just like brown sludge. “I’ve been fishing the river for 50 years and I have seen fish kills before, but nothing of this magnitude. This will be happening in every east coast river that’s been hit by bushfires.”
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nanning

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Re: Wildfires
« Reply #1161 on: January 18, 2020, 04:24:31 PM »
  :o :'(
"It is preoccupation with possessions, more than anything else, that prevents us from living freely and nobly" - Bertrand Russell
"It is preoccupation with what other people from your groups think of you, that prevents you from living freely and nobly" - Nanning
Why do you keep accumulating stuff?

Tom_Mazanec

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Re: Wildfires
« Reply #1162 on: January 20, 2020, 04:16:56 PM »
Australia's fires represent the first acute climate crisis of this new decade
https://thehill.com/opinion/energy-environment/478970-australias-fires-represent-the-first-acute-climate-crisis-of-this
Quote
Australia’s brushfires represent the first acute climate crisis of this new decade, and history will judge how humanity responds. The images of charred landscapes, decimated wildlife and people gasping for air shock the collective conscience of people around the world, but will they also shock our leaders into action? The answer to that question could determine the future of humanity and the planet.

Australia wildfires impart vital lesson to U.S.
https://www.columbian.com/news/2020/jan/19/karlik-australia-wildfires-impart-vital-lesson-to-u-s/
Quote
A heart-wrenching image of a charred juvenile kangaroo trapped against barbed wire captured the devastation of Australia’s bushfires and the bitterness of climate inaction. Distraught onlookers around the world took note. We can only hope that U.S. leaders did too.


Scott Morrison’s plan to make Australia ‘resilient’ to climate change
https://www.4bc.com.au/scott-morrisons-plan-to-make-australia-resilient-to-climate-change/
Quote
“What is action on climate change? Building dams. What is action on climate change? Hazard reduction in these areas, it’s native vegetation management, it’s land-clearing laws.

“All of those things actually make you more resilient to longer, hotter, drier seasons. That’s what we’re going to face in the future.

The Search for Clean Air Amid Australia’s Smoky Fires
https://theintercept.com/2020/01/15/australia-fires-air-quality/
Quote
To measure the health risks of air pollution, the Australian Capital Territory (ACT) uses an Air Quality Index (AQI) based on measurements of the concentration of particulate matter. An AQI of 67 to 99 is considered “fair,” 100 to 149 is “poor,” 150 to 200 is “very poor,” and 200+ is “hazardous.”
The AQI hit 4,650 on New Year’s Day in Canberra, the capital city of Australia.
« Last Edit: January 20, 2020, 04:22:56 PM by Tom_Mazanec »
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Rodius

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Re: Wildfires
« Reply #1163 on: January 21, 2020, 08:24:22 AM »
Scott Morrison’s plan to make Australia ‘resilient’ to climate change.... in the above comment and article.

That entire article is a piece of propaganda.
Build dams? We cant really do much more of that, and certainly not enough to replace the energy needs.... he also hates wind and solar and works to hinder its growth.

He is still working towards increasing coal mining.

Reducing emissions? Only if you fudge the numbers a lot.

Morrison is a climate denier to the bone. He talks to appease his poor performance during the fires, which are ongoing albeit reduced for now.

Dont believe what he says, ever.
He will dig coal for as long as possible and his responce concerning adaption are laughable.

nanning

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Re: Wildfires
« Reply #1164 on: January 21, 2020, 09:32:46 AM »
^^
A recent Guardian article mentioned that Morrison has already diverted money from an AUS$ 2B restoration fund to prop up the (private) tourism sector and an international media campain to advertise Australia to potential tourists.

He and his government do know how to take quick action.
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"It is preoccupation with what other people from your groups think of you, that prevents you from living freely and nobly" - Nanning
Why do you keep accumulating stuff?

Rodius

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Re: Wildfires
« Reply #1165 on: January 21, 2020, 12:29:09 PM »
^^
A recent Guardian article mentioned that Morrison has already diverted money from an AUS$ 2B restoration fund to prop up the (private) tourism sector and an international media campain to advertise Australia to potential tourists.

He and his government do know how to take quick action.

Dont get me started, otherwise I may not be able to stop..... there are so, so, so many examples of rampant corruption that it beggars belief.

And the hypocrisy...... $2 billion put up for fire recovery over 3 years while talking up jobs and security while they spend $49 billion per year on subsidies for fossil fuel companies.

I need to stop before I start.

On the fire front, rain has arrived in some regions, fires are still there but smaller and sort of contained. It looks like this will remain the case for the coming 3 to 5 days as wet weather hangs around.
But, when they moves on, we are back to heat and winds again. Next month will be the month to watch closely because that is the worst one for fires.

PragmaticAntithesis

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Re: Wildfires
« Reply #1166 on: January 21, 2020, 05:56:18 PM »
When are the fires expected to end?

I ask partly because it may affect the upcoming F1, but mostly out of curiosity.
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Re: Wildfires
« Reply #1167 on: January 21, 2020, 10:31:28 PM »
Very good vid on the Aussie bushfires from the excellent Potholer.
I think he is pissed he is even more snarky than normal.
 
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Rodius

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Re: Wildfires
« Reply #1168 on: January 22, 2020, 01:42:34 AM »
When are the fires expected to end?

I ask partly because it may affect the upcoming F1, but mostly out of curiosity.

The normal fire season ends in March.
But that is unlikely to happen...... from what I have read the expectation is for the fires to be put out in April or May.

It is impossible to say if it will affect the F1.
One would hope no fires are near enough to cancel the event as if that happened the F1 cancellation would be the least of our problems.
Smoke is another story, but I am not sure what the rules are for air quality and F1. Could they drive in visibilty under 500m? Could the air quality affect the driver's thinking so much as to make the race too dangerous?

Too many variables.
At a guess, I would say the F1 is good going to happen barring an escalation of fires in Melbourne itself... eg the city is burning in some way, which has happened before in conditions less worse than they are now.

PragmaticAntithesis

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Re: Wildfires
« Reply #1169 on: January 22, 2020, 01:58:56 AM »
eg the city is burning in some way, which has happened before in conditions less worse than they are now.

That is not a good sign. I hope the cities (and everyone in them) are spared. Stay safe!
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Florifulgurator

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Re: Wildfires
« Reply #1170 on: January 22, 2020, 02:26:46 AM »
eg the city is burning in some way, which has happened before in conditions less worse than they are now.

That is not a good sign. I hope the cities (and everyone in them) are spared. Stay safe!
I hope not: Better a city burns down than a forest. People are easier to evacuate than koalas and kangaroos.  Plus, a healthy shock might make deniers start thinking.

Beside these 2 purely rational reasons, methinks Australia desperately deserves it. They voted for hell, after all. So, bring it on!
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oren

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Re: Wildfires
« Reply #1171 on: January 22, 2020, 02:40:09 AM »
So, bring it on!
For the record, I strongly disagree with your post.

Florifulgurator

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Re: Wildfires
« Reply #1172 on: January 22, 2020, 04:06:12 AM »
So, bring it on!
For the record, I strongly disagree with your post.
It was an outrageous expression of my outrage at the deadly stupidity ruling Australia.

There's a glitch at YouTube. Potholer's video (see above) is in fact existing. Just click.
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Rodius

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Re: Wildfires
« Reply #1173 on: January 22, 2020, 04:36:12 AM »
eg the city is burning in some way, which has happened before in conditions less worse than they are now.

That is not a good sign. I hope the cities (and everyone in them) are spared. Stay safe!
I hope not: Better a city burns down than a forest. People are easier to evacuate than koalas and kangaroos.  Plus, a healthy shock might make deniers start thinking.

Beside these 2 purely rational reasons, methinks Australia desperately deserves it. They voted for hell, after all. So, bring it on!

This is a rediculous response.
Australia is part of the problem and the country is seeing the effects of climate change.
But it isnt as if we are the only ones.
The entire rich world is to blame for climate change.

As for the healthy shock.
Australia has healthy shocks almost every year, yet the public keep on keeping on.
The same is true of the US... of Europe, the UK, Russia and may other countries.

I honestly cant fathom comments that align with letting cities burn because of the actions of all of our actions.
I doubt Melbourne will burn this year, Sydney is looking like it might lose a suburb or two..... and should it happen, I still dont think the country ill change because the entire political class has proven themselves to not care about the people of this country... who, by the way, want climate action as a majority.

This article delves into that somewhat, but it is several months old and the fire situation is far worse now as is the level of being pissed off.... yet the Govt keeps on doing BAU.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/nov/26/more-voters-think-australia-not-doing-enough-on-climate-guardian-essential-poll-shows.

People really need to stop saying idiot throw away words like Australia deserves to burn, because that is where the entire planet is heading and I am as sure as shit sure that most people dont deserve that result.

Florifulgurator

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Re: Wildfires
« Reply #1174 on: January 22, 2020, 05:53:45 AM »
Sorry, Rodius. Especially for you: sorry. First I thought I shouldn't have said it  :-\  But then you just proved my point...

Enough of burning forests, killing 1 billion animals - not counting aquatic life eradicated in the aftermath (*). Or, half a million cattle slowly dying in the mud produced by deforestation and overgrazing - and the mud then washed into the dying Great Barrier Reef. Etc... I'm watching Australian sui-ecocide since the early 2000s. How many Hiroshima bomb equivalents of heat has the planet accumulated since? More than a billion. I want to vomit!

Time for a more benign, yet more spectacular and shocking catastrophe that seriously hurts the livelihood of many people (not their lifes) and less the living planet. Just one little Hiroshima bomb equivalent burning down a suburb or two...



https://www.reuters.com/article/us-australia-election-energy/in-coal-we-trust-australian-voters-back-pm-morrisons-faith-in-fossil-fuel-idUSKCN1SP06F
Quote
MELBOURNE (Reuters) - Australia’s re-elected Prime Minister Scott Morrison once brandished a lump of coal in parliament, crying, “This is coal - don’t be afraid!” His surprise win in what some dubbed the ‘climate election’ may have stunned the country, but voters should know what comes next in energy policy - big coal.
[...]
Perhaps my picture of Australian politics is a bit simplistic. (Perhaps people are mostly innocent victims of Rupert Murdoch...)
Australia says "F# you, Earth". :(
I say "F# you, Australia". :(

(*) P.S.:
https://www.eurekalert.org/pub_releases/2020-01/uons-pob011920.php
NEWS RELEASE 21-JAN-2020
Platypus on brink of extinction
« Last Edit: January 23, 2020, 04:26:05 AM by Florifulgurator »
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Tom_Mazanec

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Re: Wildfires
« Reply #1175 on: January 22, 2020, 10:43:05 AM »
Yours is the kind of comment people on the Right use to depict AGW fighters as anti-human monsters.
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Florifulgurator

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Re: Wildfires
« Reply #1176 on: January 22, 2020, 11:48:03 AM »
Yours is the kind of comment people on the Right use to depict AGW fighters as anti-human monsters.
Well, yes, that's why I said "F# you, Australia"...
« Last Edit: January 22, 2020, 12:07:46 PM by Florifulgurator »
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Re: Wildfires
« Reply #1177 on: January 22, 2020, 12:34:22 PM »
If countries were people, Australia is the ignorant one lighting matches beside the petrol station and laughing about it.
But countries are not people...... Australia is in crisis politically, the media is corrupt, the politics in corrupt, fossil fuel companies have bought the power and the media and propaganda machine. I still cant get over how Morrison got into power.... I know how they did it, but even if the other major party had won, they still support fossil fuels just as much.
So, the public were screwed either way even though the outrage over climate is growing stronger.

None of it makes sense to me.... why do people get annoyed about inaction about climate change yet only vote for climate denying politicians and rubbish the Green Party?

And this year it is fires.
And every year previous there is another clear example of climate change and environmental misuse. Rivers drying up, droughts, fires, the Great Barrier Reef turning white and dying... the list is so long it is depressing.

Next year it will be something else.

I understand why the world hates on Australia, but please remember the difference between politics and people.
Hate the politics, not the people.

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Re: Wildfires
« Reply #1178 on: January 22, 2020, 12:56:56 PM »
Quote
None of it makes sense to me.... why do people get annoyed about inaction about climate change yet only vote for climate denying politicians and rubbish the Green Party?
Maybe as many reasons as there are voters. Maybe the Green Party winning would mean the voter would lose out on money. Maybe the voter doesn't like some other policy of the Green Party vis-a-vis the opponent. Maybe the voter was suckered by the propaganda. Maybe the voter has always voted the way he votes, as did his father and his father before him. Maybe the voter...
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Re: Wildfires
« Reply #1179 on: January 22, 2020, 02:19:02 PM »
Rodius, I for one don't hate Australia or Australians. We are all causing this mess.

Florifulgurator could show some restraint before publishing city-burning comments.

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Re: Wildfires
« Reply #1180 on: January 22, 2020, 02:30:28 PM »
First Dog on The Moon has something to say - see images attached
& https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/jan/22/our-plan-is-to-stop-the-fires-by-chopping-down-everything-flammable-before-it-burns-marketing-genius#comment-137586045

Even in the ASIF I have seen posts about the reduction in forest fires. By coincidence, on the same day in the Guardian....
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2020/jan/22/uk-climate-scientist-corrects-australian-mp-craig-kellys-blatant-misrepresentation
UK climate scientist corrects Australian MP Craig Kelly's 'blatant misrepresentation'
Prof Sandy Harrison tells the Liberal on his Facebook page that his misuse of her study should not go unchallenged
Quote
A leading UK climate scientist has used the Facebook page of the MP Craig Kelly to correct his “blatant misrepresentation” of a study she co-authored on a 70,000-year history of bushfires in Australia.

Kelly, a serial denier of climate change, has been using the 2011 study to claim rising CO2 in the atmosphere can’t be linked to Australia’s bushfire crisis, because the study had shown total area being burned was going down while CO2 is rising.

But Prof Sandy Harrison told Guardian Australia: “I am a working scientist and I do not routinely engage in arguments on social media, but I do not think that the misuse of scientific analyses should be allowed to go unchallenged.”

Kelly picked a sentence in the study that said all regions of Australia had shown reduced fires “during the last 50 years”.

Kelly wrote: “Yet again, the truth is the exact opposite of the Alarmist narrative peddled in the media and swallowed, hook line & sinker by the naive and gullible.”

But Harrison, of the University of Exeter, told Guardian Australia the study was about historical changes, and “not about the modern situation”. She said: “The paper explicitly shows that climate warming intervals in the geologic record are characterised by more fire, all other things being equal, and thus demonstrates exactly the opposite to Mr Kelly’s claim.”

She said while it was correct that there had been a reduction in area burned, the scientists “provide an explanation for this in the very next sentence after the one [Kelly] quotes”.

“Specifically, in many regions of the world, including Australia, human transformation of the landscape through the introduction of agriculture and infrastructure results in reduced fire spread and a reduced burnt area.”

She said a reduction in burnt area over the last 50 years “does not negate the fact that climate warming is going to lead to increases”.

She said that “landscape fragmentation” had been countering the impact of global warming on the spread of fires, but added “the number of large and intense fires has gone up”.

Mind you, it is a real relief to know that desertification will fix the wildfire problem
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Re: Wildfires
« Reply #1181 on: January 22, 2020, 03:48:26 PM »
I dont want to continue this and will stop below the line.

Just this: For decades I have advocated the use of the wörd "bullshit" in the climate "debate".   Because it doesn't matter much.  If you can't convince the deniers, then why not use an apt word at times...  Meanwhile...

Above I guess I have sufficiently layed out the Australian ecocide scenario.  A professional biologist could add much more.  It is disgusting to the bones.  Meanwhile methinks it is time to talk disgustingly to the deniers, including the lukewarmers.  The disgust needs to be expressed, otherwise the deniers and lukewarmers will never ever shut up with their BS.  And they will be voted into office again and again and again.  When is the tipping point?

The only chance at meaningful climate communication is to get candidly emotional.  Rational arguments don't cut it.

----------------------------------------------------------------

BREAKING NEWS

Platypus "on brink of" extinction

https://www.eurekalert.org/pub_releases/2020-01/uons-pob011920.php

[quote---------
[...]
Published in the international scientific journal Biological Conservation this month, the study examined the potentially devastating combination of threats to platypus populations, including water resource development, land clearing, climate change and increasingly severe periods of drought.
[...]
Documented declines and local extinctions of the platypus show a species facing considerable risks, while the International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) recently downgraded the platypus' conservation status to "Near Threatened".

But the platypus remains unlisted in most jurisdictions in Australia - except South Australia, where it is endangered.
[...]
"We should learn from the peril facing the koala to understand what happens when we ignore the warning signs."
[...]
---------/quote]

While the Koala is easy to breed in captivity and can be rewilded, the Platypus is an entirely different beast: Very few zoos even succeded in keeping them alive, let alone procreate.  Plus, the venomous males are difficult to handle.

I have no idea where the big fire ash washouts happened.  But very likely they were the last nail in the Platypus' coffin.  (If not, the next event is in sight.)

A pro-Platypus "anti-human monster" news headline might be:
Platypus First Victim of 2019/20 Australian Fire Season?



----------------------------------------------------------------
« Last Edit: January 23, 2020, 04:24:57 AM by Florifulgurator »
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nanning

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Re: Wildfires
« Reply #1182 on: January 22, 2020, 05:11:18 PM »
Florifulgurator, is it a possibility that the election results are modified/fixed? Social media, troll factories, profiling, Murdock etc. (*cough* Cambridge Analytica)
"It is preoccupation with possessions, more than anything else, that prevents us from living freely and nobly" - Bertrand Russell
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Florifulgurator

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Re: Wildfires
« Reply #1183 on: January 22, 2020, 05:52:34 PM »
Nanning, I don't recall anything from the election, but it occurs likely, given recent events. See previous thread page:
https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,1368.msg243823.html#msg243823


https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2020/jan/08/twitter-bots-trolls-australian-bushfires-social-media-disinformation-campaign-false-claims
Bots and trolls spread false arson claims in Australian fires ‘disinformation campaign’
[...]

Using a Twitter bot detection tool, he assessed a random sample for bot-like characteristics.

His preliminary analysis found there is likely a “current disinformation campaign” on Twitter’s #arsonemergency hashtag due to the “suspiciously high number of bot-like and troll-like accounts”.

He similarly found a large number of suspicious accounts posting on the #australiafire and #bushfireaustralia hashtags.

“Australia suddenly appears to be getting swamped by mis/disinformation as a result of this environmental catastrophe, and we are suffering the consequences in terms of hyped up polarisation and an increased difficulty and inability for citizens to discern truth,” Graham told the Guardian.
[...]
----------/quote]
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Re: Wildfires
« Reply #1184 on: January 22, 2020, 06:40:42 PM »
Florifulgurator, is it a possibility that the election results are modified/fixed? Social media, troll factories, profiling, Murdock etc. (*cough* Cambridge Analytica)
The last Aussie election?

Was Labor's to lose.  Pathetic campaign. Tried to be pro-mining and pro-Green at the same time.
The Greens - just not assertive enough + internal power struggles. Nice guys don't win Aussie elections.

The Liberals et al. Far more media savvy.
Quite willing to use Government money to throw sweeteners at marginal constituencies.

85%
Australia is one of the most urbanised nations in the world, with an oft-quoted figure of 85% of the population living within 50km of the coast of our very large continent, with vast empty areas in the middle.

So the climate change thing not really an impact on cities until this year. The current Government relies on the inability of the majority population to remember anything farther back than the last tweet.
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Re: Wildfires
« Reply #1185 on: January 22, 2020, 10:57:38 PM »
Quote
nice guys don’t win Aussie elections
Some years ago there was a series of TV commercials for an Aussie beer here in the States.
Theme was how to speak Australian.
Video of a great white shark “guppy”.
Video of an H-Bomb test “firecracker”.
Video of a beer mug slammed on the table “beer”.
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Re: Wildfires
« Reply #1186 on: January 22, 2020, 11:27:53 PM »
None of it makes sense to me.... why do people get annoyed about inaction about climate change yet only vote for climate denying politicians and rubbish the Green Party?

$1700 is a lot of money. Its also the amount of money the average Australian is having their current lifestyle subsidised by. Its not altogether surprising that votes pile up for the people that promise to keep the subsidies rolling rather than those that would take them away.

Make me green and sustainable, but not yet ...

Rodius

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Re: Wildfires
« Reply #1187 on: January 23, 2020, 12:29:26 AM »
None of it makes sense to me.... why do people get annoyed about inaction about climate change yet only vote for climate denying politicians and rubbish the Green Party?

$1700 is a lot of money. Its also the amount of money the average Australian is having their current lifestyle subsidised by. Its not altogether surprising that votes pile up for the people that promise to keep the subsidies rolling rather than those that would take them away.

Make me green and sustainable, but not yet ...

And that is partially the problem..... Australia still doesnt think it is bad enough to take action on.

And to add salt to the wound.... here is the latest double speak this country has to listen too and far too many people are believing the lies because they just keep on saying the same thing.
Say it often enough and people will believe it........ I will keep being confused.

Farmland becoming deserts, rivers disappearing (not small ones, freaking huge ones that go dry over a 600km distance), towns of 10K people running low and out of water, Great Barrier Reef dying, rain forests that have never burned and burning,  this years fires, Sydney and Melbourne and Adelaide need desal plants to keep the taps flowing, the Blue Mountain forests are all but gone, bigger hurricanes, flash floods that are so large it is unbelivable, the list goes on and on..... and somehow, Australia still thinks it is normal and all we need to do is adapt a little bit and "she'll be right, mate." (Oz slang).

https://www.smh.com.au/national/andrew-forrest-says-fuel-loads-not-climate-change-are-primary-cause-of-bushfires-20200123-p53twe.html

Anyway, at least there has been decent rain this week, the fires are reduced and no longer causing catastrophic damage. Clean ups have started, roads being cleared, and an estimated $100 billion bill to sort it out.

https://theconversation.com/with-costs-approaching-100-billion-the-fires-are-australias-costliest-natural-disaster-129433
*edit - I forgot to insert the link for the cost of the repair job*

Florifulgurator

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Re: Wildfires
« Reply #1188 on: January 23, 2020, 03:58:38 AM »
still thinks it is normal and all we need to do is adapt a little bit and "she'll be right, mate." (Oz slang).
That's what Australian finance minister Mathias Cormann essentially said at a Davos session yesterday.

What a ridicu-lousy jerk.  Still wants to sell Australian "clean coal" and has not the slightest grasp of the ongoing ecogenosuicide.  But he gets schooled nicely by participants (incl. Carlos Afonso Nobre) and audience commenters.

Full half hour Davos session on The Global Impact of Australia's Wildfires:


I'm a bit stunned by the amount of sanity (also from Australians :) ) at Davos!

Nobre: "This will be a good experiment: Australia will have to start the largest forest restoration project in the world."

...and if we can't keep it at 1.5° warming - forget Australia.


[Now me desperately need sleep]
« Last Edit: January 24, 2020, 03:22:08 AM by Florifulgurator »
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Re: Wildfires
« Reply #1189 on: January 23, 2020, 04:09:46 AM »
Meanwhile as arguments continue there is a small (171ha) fire burning out of control a couple of miles from Parliament House. Every thing that been thrown at this fire within minuets due to the proximity of the airport, military assets and housing. Mind you another 5 of the fires have returned to Emergency warning levels as they are out of control.

https://esa.act.gov.au/emergency-warning-beard-oaks-estate-and-crestwood

Nero where are you?


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Re: Wildfires
« Reply #1190 on: January 23, 2020, 08:06:19 AM »
WIll Australia now set up a well-funded professional firefighting department?

The heroic voluntary firefighters are eagerly awaiting help/funding and someone listening in the government.
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Re: Wildfires
« Reply #1191 on: January 23, 2020, 12:44:32 PM »
Nero where are you?
Not seen since the Mt Arawang Fire Tornado, 18th January, 2003
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2003_Canberra_bushfires#Fire_tornado

someone listening in the government.
In Davos there was a veteran firefighter in the audience who explained it to Australian finance minister Mathias Cormann. Video above, 14:50min
« Last Edit: January 23, 2020, 12:52:47 PM by Florifulgurator »
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nanning

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Re: Wildfires
« Reply #1192 on: January 23, 2020, 04:11:39 PM »
Thanks for the videolink and for looking up the videotime Florifulgurator.
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Re: Wildfires
« Reply #1193 on: January 23, 2020, 05:11:04 PM »
Unfortunately a tanker plane fighting the fires has crashed, killing 3.  The article says deaths caused by the fires stand at 32 now.

 https://www.npr.org/2020/01/23/798801208/tanker-plane-fighting-australias-bushfires-crashes-killing-crew-of-3?utm_medium=RSS&utm_campaign=news

Quote
The crash, which occurred near Cooma, northeast of the Snowy Mountains, comes as Australia continues fighting massive bushfires fueled by record-setting temperatures. A fire southeast of Canberra, one of several firefighters are battling, has engulfed nearly 1,000 square miles and is considered out of control.
FNORD

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Re: Wildfires
« Reply #1194 on: January 24, 2020, 03:20:26 AM »
Great complement to Potholer54's video:



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Re: Wildfires
« Reply #1195 on: January 24, 2020, 10:29:33 PM »
Australia’s bushfire smoke is lapping the globe, and the law is too lame to catch it
https://theconversation.com/australias-bushfire-smoke-is-lapping-the-globe-and-the-law-is-too-lame-to-catch-it-130010
Quote
The number of global climate change laws has increased 20-fold between 1997 and 2017, from 60 to 1,260.

But despite this proliferation, the world is not on track to limiting planetary warming to less than 1.5℃ this century - a threshold beyond which the worst climate change impacts, including uncontrollable bushfires, will be felt.
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Florifulgurator

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Re: Wildfires
« Reply #1196 on: January 25, 2020, 01:59:51 AM »
Quote
the world is not on track to limiting planetary warming to less than 1.5℃ this century - a threshold beyond which the worst climate change impacts, including uncontrollable bushfires, will be felt.
Above 1.5°C (perhaps 2°C) warming there won't be much bushfires in Australia anymore. Perhaps grass fires. Desert and Karst don't burn.
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Re: Wildfires
« Reply #1197 on: January 25, 2020, 02:12:46 AM »
Quote
the world is not on track to limiting planetary warming to less than 1.5℃ this century - a threshold beyond which the worst climate change impacts, including uncontrollable bushfires, will be felt.
Above 1.5°C (perhaps 2°C) warming there won't be much bushfires in Australia anymore. Perhaps grass fires. Desert and Karst don't burn.

Except that wildfire occurrences have shown little correlation with temperatures.  However, they shown a large (opposite) correlation with rainfall.

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Re: Wildfires
« Reply #1198 on: January 25, 2020, 02:28:51 AM »
Quote
the world is not on track to limiting planetary warming to less than 1.5℃ this century - a threshold beyond which the worst climate change impacts, including uncontrollable bushfires, will be felt.
Above 1.5°C (perhaps 2°C) warming there won't be much bushfires in Australia anymore. Perhaps grass fires. Desert and Karst don't burn.

Except that wildfire occurrences have shown little correlation with temperatures.  However, they shown a large (opposite) correlation with rainfall.
This is essentially Australian govt & Murdoch press BS.  It's not just the "occurences" but the fires' heat and ground dryness.  Even Eucalypt can die from fire.  And that's a tree that fights fire with more (but quick) fire in spectacular blasts.  We need to wait for a complete assessment of total die-off in half a year. Until then I rely on scientific authorities like Carlos Nobre (cf. Davos video above) and on practical authorities like veteran fire fighters (loc. cit.).

-----------------------------
P.S.: Please don't get me started on Aboriginal controlled fire techniques.  Good to see white Australians recognizing their deep knowledge. (Reflecting the desperation of the current AUS govt & Murdoch press :) )  But that comes 20.000 years of experience too late. We are now in a completely new era of climate...  And not only that:  I doubt the myth of the "noble wild" anyhow: I bet the Eucalypt "monoculture" forests are a result of their practice. (Actually a fascinating example of cultural co-evolution...)  They created the Blue Mountains, but they will not be able to save them under a BAU & BS-As-Usual scenario.

[Edit finished. Off to a different virtual shore.]
« Last Edit: January 25, 2020, 03:03:38 AM by Florifulgurator »
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Re: Wildfires
« Reply #1199 on: January 25, 2020, 02:01:50 PM »
Quote
the world is not on track to limiting planetary warming to less than 1.5℃ this century - a threshold beyond which the worst climate change impacts, including uncontrollable bushfires, will be felt.
Above 1.5°C (perhaps 2°C) warming there won't be much bushfires in Australia anymore. Perhaps grass fires. Desert and Karst don't burn.

Except that wildfire occurrences have shown little correlation with temperatures.  However, they shown a large (opposite) correlation with rainfall.
This is essentially Australian govt & Murdoch press BS.  It's not just the "occurences" but the fires' heat and ground dryness.  Even Eucalypt can die from fire.  And that's a tree that fights fire with more (but quick) fire in spectacular blasts.  We need to wait for a complete assessment of total die-off in half a year. Until then I rely on scientific authorities like Carlos Nobre (cf. Davos video above) and on practical authorities like veteran fire fighters (loc. cit.).

-----------------------------
P.S.: Please don't get me started on Aboriginal controlled fire techniques.  Good to see white Australians recognizing their deep knowledge. (Reflecting the desperation of the current AUS govt & Murdoch press :) )  But that comes 20.000 years of experience too late. We are now in a completely new era of climate...  And not only that:  I doubt the myth of the "noble wild" anyhow: I bet the Eucalypt "monoculture" forests are a result of their practice. (Actually a fascinating example of cultural co-evolution...)  They created the Blue Mountains, but they will not be able to save them under a BAU & BS-As-Usual scenario.

[Edit finished. Off to a different virtual shore.]

Nice post. Drought and government (in) action are significant factors.  I am glad that someone else is aware of the aboriginal practices.