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OldLeatherneck

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Re: The 2015/2016 freezing season
« Reply #150 on: December 28, 2015, 10:15:02 PM »
I understand why traffic to this site drops after the melt season but am not sure why it drops so severely. .........

When I started this thread towards the end of the melt season, I had every intention of staying more active because I wanted to become more familiar with how a refreeze season progresses.  While my absence had nothing to do with health or family issues, other events prevented my having the time to devote to active blogging.  So here I am again....hopefully to stay more active until a planned trip to Europe in the May/June time frame.

When I started lurking here again a few weeks ago, I was astounded by the lack of ice in the Sea of Okhotz as well as how little ice was forming in the Bering.  I'm even somewhat shocked that there is  so little ice along the St. Lawrence River in Canada.  I'm beginning to think that we may have another winter with a new record low for Extent and possible area as well.  However, I would be shocked the  ADS-NIPR Extent were to end up lower than 13.5M Km2.

It also unnerving to think of the possibility that the North Pole could see above freezing temperatures within the next week.  What could that mean to the state of the ice for the remainder of the refreeze season??
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magnamentis

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Re: The 2015/2016 freezing season
« Reply #151 on: December 28, 2015, 11:54:34 PM »
seconding that  8) was thinking the same. this has become my daily read and i'm missing similar threads related to the antarctic. the antarctic section puts the main focus on specific places like PIG and the likes while the general development after years of denier's favourite reasoning finally is catching up with global patterns.

jdallen

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Re: The 2015/2016 freezing season
« Reply #152 on: December 29, 2015, 12:04:32 AM »
I understand why traffic to this site drops after the melt season but am not sure why it drops so severely. .........

When I started this thread towards the end of the melt season, I had every intention of staying more active because I wanted to become more familiar with how a refreeze season progresses.  While my absence had nothing to do with health or family issues, other events prevented my having the time to devote to active blogging.  So here I am again....hopefully to stay more active until a planned trip to Europe in the May/June time frame.

When I started lurking here again a few weeks ago, I was astounded by the lack of ice in the Sea of Okhotz as well as how little ice was forming in the Bering.  I'm even somewhat shocked that there is  so little ice along the St. Lawrence River in Canada.  I'm beginning to think that we may have another winter with a new record low for Extent and possible area as well.  However, I would be shocked the  ADS-NIPR Extent were to end up lower than 13.5M Km2.

It also unnerving to think of the possibility that the North Pole could see above freezing temperatures within the next week.  What could that mean to the state of the ice for the remainder of the refreeze season??
I thought the Bering, Okhotz and Hudson were odd at first as well, until I wandered back through CT a bit checking images and dates.  For the 2000's, it's not so unusual. There is even some recent precedent for the Kara being as open as it is, and open water north of Svalbard.

 I don't think the lack of  ice there will be as important as the effect persistent heat will have slowing the thickening of ice, combined with invigorated Fram export of 8000+ KM2/ day of MYI.  Heck, there was even some *rain* forecast over the pack North of Svalbard. That's scary.

The pattern the next three months is actually most key, and could turn things around, fairly quickly.

But I don't think that's how it will play out. 

So far as I have read, it doesn't sound like the Arctic is going to get any respite from the blowtorch El Niño has set loose in the Northern Hemisphere.

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Re: The 2015/2016 freezing season
« Reply #153 on: December 29, 2015, 04:23:01 AM »

The pattern the next three months is actually most key, and could turn things around, fairly quickly.

But I don't think that's how it will play out. 

So far as I have read, it doesn't sound like the Arctic is going to get any respite from the blowtorch El Niño has set loose in the Northern Hemisphere.

It's amazing to me, looking at Climate Reanalyzer, how the heat keeps getting pumped into the CAB.  It's heat coming at the CAB in waves. 
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andy_t_roo

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Re: The 2015/2016 freezing season
« Reply #154 on: December 29, 2015, 05:15:34 AM »
Yes the heat is being pumped in, but that means more overall energy lost to space...  Energy radiated is proportional to temperature difference squared (or so, it could be ^4 atmospheric physics is complicated ), so the further form its normal - 20 or so, the more energy the world as a whole looses. 
Remember that without sunlight open water has perhaps a 400 w/m energy imbalance,  which is why most of the central Arctic basin freezes the moment the sun goes down.

6roucho

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Re: The 2015/2016 freezing season
« Reply #155 on: December 29, 2015, 06:38:52 AM »
Yes the heat is being pumped in, but that means more overall energy lost to space...  Energy radiated is proportional to temperature difference squared (or so, it could be ^4 atmospheric physics is complicated ), so the further form its normal - 20 or so, the more energy the world as a whole looses. 
Remember that without sunlight open water has perhaps a 400 w/m energy imbalance,  which is why most of the central Arctic basin freezes the moment the sun goes down.
Interesting. So El Niño as a form of radiating* mechanism has the potential to mitigate net warming?

* Is that the right word in this context?

jdallen

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Re: The 2015/2016 freezing season
« Reply #156 on: December 29, 2015, 07:03:54 AM »
Yes the heat is being pumped in, but that means more overall energy lost to space...  Energy radiated is proportional to temperature difference squared (or so, it could be ^4 atmospheric physics is complicated ), so the further form its normal - 20 or so, the more energy the world as a whole looses. 
Remember that without sunlight open water has perhaps a 400 w/m energy imbalance,  which is why most of the central Arctic basin freezes the moment the sun goes down.
I'm quite aware of the qualitative details if not the precise numbers; yes, as the temperature rises, black body radiation increases proportionately.

That said, the qualitative scale of heat is still overwhelming.  While I'm certain the heat is not going into the ice, it *is* preventing heat from leaving the ocean, and therein lies our problem.

That energy in the atmosphere is inhibiting the exchange from ocean to atmosphere, and by extension, to space.  That means that much more heat is being retained in the water, and not being released in a phase change to sea ice.

Less ice translates into more rapid reduction of albedo as it melts, and increased absorption of insolation during the melt season.

In short, heat not lost *now* will haunt us in June.
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jdallen

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Re: The 2015/2016 freezing season
« Reply #157 on: December 29, 2015, 07:13:27 AM »
Yes the heat is being pumped in, but that means more overall energy lost to space...  Energy radiated is proportional to temperature difference squared (or so, it could be ^4 atmospheric physics is complicated ), so the further form its normal - 20 or so, the more energy the world as a whole looses. 
Remember that without sunlight open water has perhaps a 400 w/m energy imbalance,  which is why most of the central Arctic basin freezes the moment the sun goes down.
Interesting. So El Niño as a form of radiating* mechanism has the potential to mitigate net warming?

* Is that the right word in this context?

NOPE.

El Niño weather reflects the sensible expression of heat which has already been (and continues to be) captured by the system. 

The heat we are seeing in the atmosphere is being replaced by insolation at the equator as fast as it is transferring to northern latitudes; it's just reflecting the increased baseline enthalpy present in the system.

Heat transfer between our environment and space will equalize, but, we have a ways to go before the total re-radiation of heat matches the net changes in forcing caused by increased CO2, H2O and CH4 (and others...) in the atmosphere. 

The heating is not uniform, there fore the distribution of heat in the system is not uniform, never was.  However, the net balance due to forcing is increasing the net enthalpy of the system, which makes it over all that more energetic.  More water vapor, more active movement of heat as it attempts to move from higher to lower gradients;  that will continue until we reach a better balance in the system overall.

But no, El Niño does not represent a means by which we can spill heat out of the system;  it is a means by which heat may be redistributed within it.

(yes, right word in context.)
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Xyrus

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Re: The 2015/2016 freezing season
« Reply #158 on: December 29, 2015, 07:24:53 AM »
*Senses arctic warmth, crawls out of hibernation cave*

Wow! The arctic is going to be torched! Just look at all that....

*Looks at calendar*
*blink*
*Rubs eyes*

...Ummmm...oookay.

*Crawls back into cave*

Neven

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Re: The 2015/2016 freezing season
« Reply #159 on: December 29, 2015, 09:30:42 AM »
In view of current weather conditions and strong surface air flows encouraging export out the Fram, I did some browsing for relevant research.

Found this, looked interesting.

http://www.the-cryosphere-discuss.net/9/4205/2015/tcd-9-4205-2015-print.pdf

Thanks, jdallen, interesting indeed.
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Neven

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Re: The 2015/2016 freezing season
« Reply #160 on: December 29, 2015, 09:33:57 AM »
In view of current weather conditions and strong surface air flows encouraging export out the Fram, I did some browsing for relevant research.

Found this, looked interesting.

http://www.the-cryosphere-discuss.net/9/4205/2015/tcd-9-4205-2015-print.pdf

Very interesting indeed. Thanks, jdallen.
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LRC1962

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Re: The 2015/2016 freezing season
« Reply #161 on: December 29, 2015, 07:00:45 PM »
Yes the heat is being pumped in, but that means more overall energy lost to space...  Energy radiated is proportional to temperature difference squared (or so, it could be ^4 atmospheric physics is complicated ), so the further form its normal - 20 or so, the more energy the world as a whole looses. 
Remember that without sunlight open water has perhaps a 400 w/m energy imbalance,  which is why most of the central Arctic basin freezes the moment the sun goes down.
Having no physics background this may be a very stupid opinion.
I do understand that if there is no sunlight then that means no direct heating source. If no direct heating source that means more heat is lost to space then it  is getting, which means it easily gets cold fast.
 I do understand that physics does have very set provable mathematics that gives you how much heat lost there will be. The question I have is that when doing those calculations, do they include how much more heat will be retained because of the thickening blanket of CO2? And how much of that heat could actually be getting lost in the deeper parts of the Arctic Ocean?
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Re: The 2015/2016 freezing season
« Reply #162 on: December 29, 2015, 07:21:06 PM »
Hi LRC,

As I see it, there's not much point in discussing heat loss to space over the Arctic during winters' darkness.
The heat loss can't be as strong as it used to be. There's a blanket of greenhouse gases, and it is most effective over the Arctic.
FI, ASLR placed some nice pics of methane content on different heights in the atmosphere.

RaenorShine

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Re: The 2015/2016 freezing season
« Reply #163 on: December 29, 2015, 07:27:53 PM »
As its now Tuesday evening I thought I'd take a look if the warmer air i making its way up at actual measurement stations .....

Current temperature in Svalbard (Longyear Airport) is 7C (compared to a daily average of -9C and all time max of 3C (in 2004) according to Wunderground) 

http://www.wunderground.com/q/zmw:00000.4.01008?sp=ENSB.

PhilDPortsmouth

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Re: The 2015/2016 freezing season
« Reply #164 on: December 29, 2015, 11:07:28 PM »
This may hav already been posted but interesting that mainstream media is picking up on it and mentioning possibly strongest ever Icelandic storm http://www.independent.co.uk/news/science/storm-frank-freak-weather-uk-north-pole-40-50-degrees-hotter-than-normal-a6789916.html

jdallen

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Re: The 2015/2016 freezing season
« Reply #165 on: December 30, 2015, 12:07:49 AM »
Hi LRC,

As I see it, there's not much point in discussing heat loss to space over the Arctic during winters' darkness.
The heat loss can't be as strong as it used to be. There's a blanket of greenhouse gases, and it is most effective over the Arctic.
FI, ASLR placed some nice pics of methane content on different heights in the atmosphere.
Concur mostly with caveats.  Loss out of the atmosphere is a fixed value derived as a function of temperature.  The higher the "pressure"(temp), the higher the flow of outbound radiation.

What *IS* relevant is how that heat is supplied.

Normally, that heat is supple by local air masses which are heated conductively via transfer from the ocean and phase change of water into ice.  Currently, that heat flow is stopped, and actually reversed (!... 0-1C air vs -1.8C seawater).  The heat being radiated is coming from warm moist air imported from the south.  That's a big, big problem as no heat flow out of the water means no ice formation.

Even limited flow is a problem as the ice as it thickens becomes a better insulator, which with a lower gradient in temperature will radically slow heat loss.

I've previously posted an ice melt study which evaluated melt in CM/day based on water temperature.  From that and evaluating heat flow through the ice itself, I get a rule of thumb for ice formation; that is, given sufficient time at temperature, you will get about 0.1M of ice per degree below freezing.  The only way to get thicker is ridging.

The anomalies we had last year can I think be considered directly responsible for the anemic max.  The same will be true again this year if it continues.  Add to this a highly active Fram export pumping 2M+ thick ice out of the basin at 8-10000 KM2/day, and I think we will have reason to conclude last years record will be threatened.  Volume similarly will not recover.

The Arctic, suffice to say, has my attention.
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jdallen

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Re: The 2015/2016 freezing season
« Reply #166 on: December 30, 2015, 12:16:59 AM »
This may hav already been posted but interesting that mainstream media is picking up on it and mentioning possibly strongest ever Icelandic storm http://www.independent.co.uk/news/science/storm-frank-freak-weather-uk-north-pole-40-50-degrees-hotter-than-normal-a6789916.html

Now I know where people's objection to my 70F assertion came from.  They rounded down the anomaly (from 54 to 50 using their own end points), and overestimated N pole temp (-30 vs -40 I've seen cited elsewhere.)
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Re: The 2015/2016 freezing season
« Reply #167 on: December 30, 2015, 12:25:07 AM »
jdallen, you are my first domino in how this story evolved over the past few days: North Pole temperature anomaly (big)

Really well-spotted.  :) 8)
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Re: The 2015/2016 freezing season
« Reply #168 on: December 30, 2015, 04:37:59 AM »
Buoy 300234062785480 located at 85.45N rose 25C in 9 hours (and is now above freezing). It was -24.3C at 0600 hours (day 363.25) and +1.0C at 1500 hours (day 363.626).

Table of buoys.

Datafile for 300234062785480

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Re: The 2015/2016 freezing season
« Reply #169 on: December 30, 2015, 01:01:13 PM »
Buoy 300234062785480 located at 85.45N rose 25C in 9 hours (and is now above freezing). It was -24.3C at 0600 hours (day 363.25) and +1.0C at 1500 hours (day 363.626).

Table of buoys.

Datafile for 300234062785480

Wow! Just wow!

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Re: The 2015/2016 freezing season
« Reply #170 on: December 30, 2015, 02:17:43 PM »
The webcam at the Isfjord Radio Hotel on Svalbard is clearly showing the effects of the rain and the high temperature on the lying snow. Amazing - unprecedented in December?

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Re: The 2015/2016 freezing season
« Reply #171 on: December 30, 2015, 08:59:37 PM »

Tensor

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Re: The 2015/2016 freezing season
« Reply #172 on: December 30, 2015, 11:39:54 PM »
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OldLeatherneck

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Re: The 2015/2016 freezing season
« Reply #173 on: December 31, 2015, 12:20:24 AM »
Does anyone know how long this warm pulse is going to linger over the Arctic??
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jdallen

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Re: The 2015/2016 freezing season
« Reply #174 on: December 31, 2015, 12:35:48 AM »
Does anyone know how long this warm pulse is going to linger over the Arctic??
GFS apparently thinks a couple of days, petering out slowly.

About that time, it starts showing an almost as warm pulse surging in from the Pacific side.

In about six days the models are suggesting we might see "Franken-pulse version 2.0, the sequel" starting to spin up on the Atlantic side.

It's not a cheery forecast.
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silkman

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Re: The 2015/2016 freezing season
« Reply #175 on: December 31, 2015, 12:38:35 AM »
About a week according to ECMWF:

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Re: The 2015/2016 freezing season
« Reply #176 on: December 31, 2015, 01:29:53 AM »
http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/meant80n.uk.php    :o

That's just jaw-dropping.
It is jaw-dropping, but not that unusual. Spikes of 15-20 degrees occur every few years in the DMI  measure as you  can see by checking out the 1958-1960 graphs.
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LRC1962

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Re: The 2015/2016 freezing season
« Reply #177 on: December 31, 2015, 02:04:05 AM »
Difference between then and now is that now with satellites we have a petty good grasp of temps all over Arctic. Then it is guess work based of temps located at very few places on the Arctic.
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jdallen

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Re: The 2015/2016 freezing season
« Reply #178 on: December 31, 2015, 03:27:08 AM »
http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/meant80n.uk.php    :o

That's just jaw-dropping.
It is jaw-dropping, but not that unusual. Spikes of 15-20 degrees occur every few years in the DMI  measure as you  can see by checking out the 1958-1960 graphs.
1958-1960 isn't every few years.  And as LRC indicates, they didn't have the coverage then.

This isn't usual by any stretch of the imagination I can apply to the Arctic.
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Re: The 2015/2016 freezing season
« Reply #179 on: December 31, 2015, 04:48:34 AM »
In view of current weather conditions and strong surface air flows encouraging export out the Fram, I did some browsing for relevant research.

Found this, looked interesting.

http://www.the-cryosphere-discuss.net/9/4205/2015/tcd-9-4205-2015-print.pdf

The authors make a bold assertion in the Concluding Remarks (emphasis mine):

Quote
...In our historical
simulations we found no trend in Fram Strait sea ice export, and we are not aware of
results suggesting a likely systematic change in the Arctic large-scale circulation. We
therefore find that the observed increase in ice export documented here is caused by
natural climate variability, and that there is potential for a partial recovery of the Arctic
September SIE in the future when, or if, the spring ice export decreases.


Doesn't the assertion of natural climate variability as cause of export increase seem thinly supported here?

DavidR

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Re: The 2015/2016 freezing season
« Reply #180 on: December 31, 2015, 05:06:57 AM »
http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/meant80n.uk.php    :o

That's just jaw-dropping.
It is jaw-dropping, but not that unusual. Spikes of 15-20 degrees occur every few years in the DMI  measure as you  can see by checking out the 1958-1960 graphs.
1958-1960 isn't every few years.  And as LRC indicates, they didn't have the coverage then.

This isn't usual by any stretch of the imagination I can apply to the Arctic.
If you  check the DMI  record you  will  see that  large rapid upward variations ( > 15 deg) do occur frequently, eg, in the 80s, 1983, 1984 (twice), 1986, 1987, 1990.  I am not suggesting that  the measurements were as sophisticated or accurate as they  are today but DMI obviously  considers them good enough to report as part of their 57 year reporting tables. 

The media reports are also  reporting 9m waves in the North Atlantic. I wonder how that is impacting the edge of the ice in that area?
« Last Edit: December 31, 2015, 08:07:10 AM by DavidR »
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Re: The 2015/2016 freezing season
« Reply #181 on: December 31, 2015, 11:14:05 AM »
Yes the heat is being pumped in, but that means more overall energy lost to space...  Energy radiated is proportional to temperature difference squared (or so, it could be ^4 atmospheric physics is complicated ), so the further form its normal - 20 or so, the more energy the world as a whole looses. 
Remember that without sunlight open water has perhaps a 400 w/m energy imbalance,  which is why most of the central Arctic basin freezes the moment the sun goes down.
Interesting. So El Niño as a form of radiating* mechanism has the potential to mitigate net warming?

* Is that the right word in this context?

NOPE.

El Niño weather reflects the sensible expression of heat which has already been (and continues to be) captured by the system. 

The heat we are seeing in the atmosphere is being replaced by insolation at the equator as fast as it is transferring to northern latitudes; it's just reflecting the increased baseline enthalpy present in the system.

Heat transfer between our environment and space will equalize, but, we have a ways to go before the total re-radiation of heat matches the net changes in forcing caused by increased CO2, H2O and CH4 (and others...) in the atmosphere. 

The heating is not uniform, there fore the distribution of heat in the system is not uniform, never was.  However, the net balance due to forcing is increasing the net enthalpy of the system, which makes it over all that more energetic.  More water vapor, more active movement of heat as it attempts to move from higher to lower gradients;  that will continue until we reach a better balance in the system overall.

But no, El Niño does not represent a means by which we can spill heat out of the system;  it is a means by which heat may be redistributed within it.

(yes, right word in context.)
Thanks, nice answer.

johnm33

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Re: The 2015/2016 freezing season
« Reply #182 on: December 31, 2015, 02:57:13 PM »
Hints of red on nullschool SSTA beneath the ice could be impacting the freeze.

Neven

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Re: The 2015/2016 freezing season
« Reply #183 on: January 01, 2016, 10:50:23 PM »
There are a couple of comments between the time this new member (welcome, Ethan) wrote his first comment and the time I released it, so I repeat it:

In view of current weather conditions and strong surface air flows encouraging export out the Fram, I did some browsing for relevant research.

Found this, looked interesting.

http://www.the-cryosphere-discuss.net/9/4205/2015/tcd-9-4205-2015-print.pdf

The authors make a bold assertion in the Concluding Remarks (emphasis mine):

Quote
...In our historical
simulations we found no trend in Fram Strait sea ice export, and we are not aware of
results suggesting a likely systematic change in the Arctic large-scale circulation. We
therefore find that the observed increase in ice export documented here is caused by
natural climate variability, and that there is potential for a partial recovery of the Arctic
September SIE in the future when, or if, the spring ice export decreases.


Doesn't the assertion of natural climate variability as cause of export increase seem thinly supported here?
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P-maker

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Re: The 2015/2016 freezing season
« Reply #184 on: January 02, 2016, 12:56:30 AM »
Neven (and Ethan),

I did read the paper and I did wonder about the statement in question.

However, I also realized that these guys had not gone deep enough in their litterature search. For instance, this paper: http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/pdf/10.1175/1520-0442%282003%29016%3C2782%3AFSIEDT%3E2.0.CO%3B2 was not even mentioned in the draft paper. If they had taken the time to look at their fig.  6, they would have realized – based on various reconstructions – that Fram Strait ice export has apparently gone up and down around 3,000 km3 since the 1950ies (and maybe since the 1820ies according to their fig. 8). Those new low export numbers around 1,000 km3 in recent years may be a valid estimate, but still we need to put them into perspective.

There is indeed a high natural variability in the Fram Strait ice export, and until we have better evidence, we may still only be able to ascribe this to natural variability.

jdallen

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Re: The 2015/2016 freezing season
« Reply #185 on: January 02, 2016, 04:46:17 AM »
Placeholder for evaluation next week.

Our pulse on the Atlantic side is replaced by a pulse, not quite as intense, on the Bering side.

Heat in the Barents, Kara, and nearby areas of the CAB remains extraordinarily high.
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Jim Hunt

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Re: The 2015/2016 freezing season
« Reply #186 on: January 03, 2016, 12:10:07 AM »
NSIDC daily Arctic sea ice extent has declined for 2 days in a row.

The January 1st 2016 value of 12.732 million km² is the lowest for the first day of any year in their records that go back to 1979.
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jdallen

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Re: The 2015/2016 freezing season
« Reply #187 on: January 03, 2016, 08:36:35 AM »
NSIDC daily Arctic sea ice extent has declined for 2 days in a row.

The January 1st 2016 value of 12.732 million km² is the lowest for the first day of any year in their records that go back to 1979.

I fear it will it only get worse.
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johnm33

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Re: The 2015/2016 freezing season
« Reply #188 on: January 03, 2016, 02:27:26 PM »
AMSR2 from Polar View
26th

3rd

It's going to be interesting for a while with the new storms heading north.

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Re: The 2015/2016 freezing season
« Reply #189 on: January 03, 2016, 03:11:50 PM »
Based on those two images, I thought I'd look at SIA on the Atlantic side to judge the impact of this crazy storm in specific seas.

If you look at the graphs below, while the Greenland Sea is about 100K sq km lower than last year, there is no obvious/dramatic impact from the storm.

Not so for the Barents where we see a stall from a fairly fast rate of freeze and then a quick drop of about 50K sq km. This drop is constrained by the very slow freeze of the Barents this season. There just isn't that much ice to melt or push around. The Barents is now 300K sq km behind last year on this date.

Meanwhile the Kara is taking a beating, having dropped nearly 150K sq km in the past week and is now 200K below this day last year.

Overall, the Atlantic side looks pretty poor.

RunningChristo

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Re: The 2015/2016 freezing season
« Reply #190 on: January 03, 2016, 03:23:00 PM »
+5.2C at Longyearbyen 2 pm today as well! Things are really turned up side down,  when in Oslo at the same time we're experiencing 5 degrees below...
This is the 7'th consecutive Day with temps at Svalbard 15-20 C above normal,  so no Wonder the Atlantic side do take a beating! 
My fancy for ice & glaciers started in 1995:-).

werther

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Re: The 2015/2016 freezing season
« Reply #191 on: January 04, 2016, 08:48:42 PM »
ECMWF today is quite bullish in its’ forecast concerning a vortex-splitting event coming up over the Arctic.



This is their graph for Monday 11.  Remains to see if it will propagate into the stratosphere.

jdallen

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Re: The 2015/2016 freezing season
« Reply #192 on: January 04, 2016, 09:00:43 PM »
ECMWF today is quite bullish in its’ forecast concerning a vortex-splitting event coming up over the Arctic.

The forecast from GFS for the Arctic is "blistering" right through the end of the week. I've been comparing the current forecast with daily Climate Reanalyzer reanalysis maps of the same days in early 2015.  Eyeballing the maps, we currently look to be 2-5C warmer (minimum - I'm being conservative) across the basin for the same period in 2016.

The heat this year also persistently covers larger areas.

The pattern suggests to me we have a good shot at beating last year's "minimum-max"
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werther

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Re: The 2015/2016 freezing season
« Reply #193 on: January 04, 2016, 09:19:48 PM »
JDAllen, hi,
those Climate Reanalyzer forecasts look scary indeed. For the longevity....a SSW event will progagate near surface temp anomalies within one or two weeks. They often last for some time.
If so, January will be lost for build-up of 'winter power'....

LRC1962

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Re: The 2015/2016 freezing season
« Reply #194 on: January 04, 2016, 10:15:59 PM »
From Climate Change and El Nino Locked in Tempestuous Embrace — Teleconnection Between Hot Equatorial Pacific and North Atlantic Cool Pool? we get this image.
We can easily see an express train straight from the El Nino event directly into the Arctic. As long as the SST's along that path stay more or less the same, would it be not logical to presume that what we see happening in the Arctic around Greenland and Europe continue on for the foreseeable future?
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seaicesailor

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Re: The 2015/2016 freezing season
« Reply #195 on: January 05, 2016, 12:19:35 AM »
But the article doesnt explain the mechanism. I mean the whole Northern hemisphere weather is whacked out (and Southern Hemisphere too wtf). But it is not clear how, at all. 2016 ominous start

seaicesailor

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Re: The 2015/2016 freezing season
« Reply #196 on: January 05, 2016, 12:24:08 AM »
The image of the front, whether caused by warm temps and El Nino or just casual, is kind of spooky tho.

OldLeatherneck

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Re: The 2015/2016 freezing season
« Reply #197 on: January 05, 2016, 12:52:03 AM »
When one considers the impacts of the recent warm pulse of air entering the arctic on the Atlantic side and the near term potential of a similar event on the pacific side, to be followed periodically by the effects of El Nino, I don't see how the February/March maximums for SIe and  SIA will not set new record lows.  Possibly by significant margins.
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jdallen

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Re: The 2015/2016 freezing season
« Reply #198 on: January 05, 2016, 01:49:40 AM »
When one considers the impacts of the recent warm pulse of air entering the arctic on the Atlantic side and the near term potential of a similar event on the pacific side, to be followed periodically by the effects of El Nino, I don't see how the February/March maximums for SIe and  SIA will not set new record lows.  Possibly by significant margins.

I'm not quite so certain, but think it likely.

The major impact of the imported heat will be to limit loss from the Arctic Ocean and Peripheral seas - particularly the Barents, Kara and Bering. The effect of this will be to give the season a running start. I'm uncertain what the impact will be on the Laptev, ESS, Chukchi and Beaufort.  I think the Basin proper may be exceptionally vulnerable on the Atlantic side.

We could still see significant SIE and SIA growth to take us closer to a more typical max; temperatures are still well below that needed to make ice. The heat and resulting lack of time to consolidate will leave it more vulnerable than the numbers otherwise would imply. We may see much broader areas of < 2M thick ice at the start of the melt season. So in short, the ice could form to reach greater extent an area than last year, but will be neither as thick, nor as resistant to melt conditions.

I think the heat will inhibit volume recovery, which I think is most key after net oceanic heat loss/uptake. The reanimated Fram export has not been helpful in this regard.

Paradoxically, rapid return of heat to the Northern hemisphere in spring could cut the Arctic a bit of a break.  Lower temp gradient might slow down the import of heat. It's not the way I'm likely to bet though.
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Metamemesis

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Re: The 2015/2016 freezing season
« Reply #199 on: January 05, 2016, 06:14:53 PM »
NSIDC daily Arctic sea ice extent has declined for 2 days in a row.

The January 1st 2016 value of 12.732 million km² is the lowest for the first day of any year in their records that go back to 1979.

Just had a look at the NSIDC Chart (http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/charctic-interactive-sea-ice-graph/), which has Jan 1st 2011 value of 12.596 million km², so unless I can't read a graph (entirely possible) that pushes this year's Jan 1st value into 2nd place. Saying that, yesterday's figure of 12.801 million km² now puts 2016 extent below the same date in 2011, so 2016 has the lowest extent for 4th Jan for the available records.

From what I can see, the 5-day stall in growth so far this week appears unsual for this time of year (i.e. 2 weeks either side of 1st Jan), but not exceptional (see Decembers of '80, '90, '99; Januarys of '03, '06, '07, '12).

Didn't expect the freezing season to be this exciting/terrifying*

*Delete as appropriate