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Author Topic: The 2015/2016 freezing season  (Read 311899 times)

magnamentis

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Re: The 2015/2016 freezing season
« Reply #350 on: February 01, 2016, 09:27:15 PM »
no problem, there are more important things which is why i started to gather data just in case LOL.

however cannot say that i wouldn't look forward to have those great graphs back, very much appreciated. THX
« Last Edit: February 02, 2016, 11:13:27 AM by magnamentis »

Jim Hunt

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Re: The 2015/2016 freezing season
« Reply #351 on: February 01, 2016, 10:57:45 PM »
After two down days in a row the NSIDC daily Arctic sea ice extent has joined JAXA/ADS extent and CT area in the “lowest ever level for the date” category:

http://GreatWhiteCon.info/2016/01/more-heat-heading-for-north-pole/#comment-213342

Meanwhile the North Atlantic is being stirred up by hurricane force winds yet again, courtesy of  Storm Henry;
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Re: The 2015/2016 freezing season
« Reply #352 on: February 02, 2016, 09:09:08 AM »
The North Atlantic / Barents has been hotter than usual for the past 6 months according to  NOAA, generally  in the 5 warmest for each  month. The Pacific seas has been quite a bit cooler than last  year.  More like top 10 than top 5.

The Pacific side will  probably see quite a bit of growth in mid winter whereas I  expect  the Atlantic to have low increases and rapidly disappearing ice as the summer develops.  I'm betting  on  a maximum around 15 and minimum around 3.5 - 4 for the NSIDC extent.
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magnamentis

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Re: The 2015/2016 freezing season
« Reply #353 on: February 02, 2016, 11:17:59 AM »
can you explain your reason to believe in a higher max than last year while i think it even a possibility that we won't even cross the 14M this year and 15M+ would definitely come as a big surprise for me. ready to learn about your reasons for your expectations so to look at things from a different angle perhaps :-)

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Re: The 2015/2016 freezing season
« Reply #354 on: February 02, 2016, 11:22:14 AM »
Whilst searching YouTube for Arctic videos I discovered this one, which summarises the 2015 Arctic Report Card:

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Sleepy

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Re: The 2015/2016 freezing season
« Reply #355 on: February 02, 2016, 12:15:26 PM »
Thanks Jim, that's a nicely sized communications video, since that's about the upper limit for a denier to absorb. Speaking of which, I'd like to follow with this gem posted by Peter Sinclair last year.

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Re: The 2015/2016 freezing season
« Reply #356 on: February 02, 2016, 12:23:12 PM »
This forecast from GFS and 10mb will be interesting to follow, from today to the 10:th.
Click to animate.

DavidR

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Re: The 2015/2016 freezing season
« Reply #357 on: February 02, 2016, 01:10:02 PM »
can you explain your reason to believe in a higher max than last year while i think it even a possibility that we won't even cross the 14M this year and 15M+ would definitely come as a big surprise for me. ready to learn about your reasons for your expectations so to look at things from a different angle perhaps :-)

NB.  I am referring to NSIDC extent not  IJIS which is significantly lower.

2014 saw record sea surface temperatures across the North Pacific for most of the last six months of the year. This year, that area while quite warm is not  near record breaking.  My  hypothesis last year was that the warmth would slow extent growth in the Pacific. This is where most of the growth will come from over the next two months. 

This year I expect more growth in the Pacific and, because it contains of a very long ice edge extent can easily get up to 15M km^2 overall.

I  predicted a low figure last yearand it turned out to be true although a lot of that was the result of a series of storms that moved through the Barents in Feb and March.  These storms may actually have thickened the ice edge in the Barents, which did not retreat or fragment much later in the year.

One possibility is that a low maximum extent can be caused by a compacted pack that is stronger, leading to less melt later.




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crandles

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Re: The 2015/2016 freezing season
« Reply #358 on: February 02, 2016, 01:15:14 PM »
can you explain your reason to believe in a higher max than last year while i think it even a possibility that we won't even cross the 14M this year and 15M+ would definitely come as a big surprise for me. ready to learn about your reasons for your expectations so to look at things from a different angle perhaps :-)

DavidR answered but these typed prior to seeing that:


Already at 13.899 per NSIDC. While currently lower than 2015, 2015 was surprisingly smooth. If we followed a path more like 2012: from 2012, 01, 31, 14.048 to 2012, 03, 18, 15.307 is a rise of more than 1.25 or enough of a rise to put us up to 15.15

2012 might be an extreme in the opposite direction for having a really large rise but if we are currently low there might be a slight? tendency for a larger than typical rise.

Haven't searched thoroughly, but I doubt and can't see any years path that would not put us above 14 so staying below 14 looks extremely unlikely.

I would guess above 14.5 is more likely than staying below 14.5.

magnamentis

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Re: The 2015/2016 freezing season
« Reply #359 on: February 02, 2016, 04:26:09 PM »
can you explain your reason to believe in a higher max than last year while i think it even a possibility that we won't even cross the 14M this year and 15M+ would definitely come as a big surprise for me. ready to learn about your reasons for your expectations so to look at things from a different angle perhaps :-)

DavidR answered but these typed prior to seeing that:


Already at 13.899 per NSIDC. While currently lower than 2015, 2015 was surprisingly smooth. If we followed a path more like 2012: from 2012, 01, 31, 14.048 to 2012, 03, 18, 15.307 is a rise of more than 1.25 or enough of a rise to put us up to 15.15

2012 might be an extreme in the opposite direction for having a really large rise but if we are currently low there might be a slight? tendency for a larger than typical rise.

Haven't searched thoroughly, but I doubt and can't see any years path that would not put us above 14 so staying below 14 looks extremely unlikely.

I would guess above 14.5 is more likely than staying below 14.5.
yeah sure, the part with 14k was exagerated, funny thing that right now i came back to correct that LOL, but i have obviously been caught aldready LOL. basically i cannot see the 15k happen right now while as usual, everything is possible :-) thanks

EDIT: the image attached now which is not form "nsidc" confused me, values are slightly lower in general :-)
« Last Edit: February 02, 2016, 05:55:18 PM by magnamentis »

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Re: The 2015/2016 freezing season
« Reply #360 on: February 02, 2016, 05:30:13 PM »
This forecast from GFS and 10mb will be interesting to follow, from today to the 10:th.
Click to animate.

I am fairly certain that I have never seen temperatures of the stratosphere. The animation certainly looks impressive but I have nothing to compare it to. What does it mean?

Sleepy

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Re: The 2015/2016 freezing season
« Reply #361 on: February 02, 2016, 06:53:23 PM »
SH, it indicates a stratospheric warming next week. If that happens and if it's big enough, it may disrupt the polar vortex, which then may warm the Arctic and lead to cold outbreaks in middle latitudes.

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Re: The 2015/2016 freezing season
« Reply #362 on: February 02, 2016, 07:18:46 PM »
Re SSWs, see also:

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/intraseasonal/temp10anim.shtml

which currently reveals this:

Or at least it will do when the CPC web site works for me! May still be having BT broadband problems:

http://www.v2g.co.uk/2016/02/the-great-storm-henry-blackout-saga/#comment-52467

P.S. BT have finally reconnected us to the world wide web, and so:
« Last Edit: February 02, 2016, 11:55:41 PM by Jim Hunt »
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Shared Humanity

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Re: The 2015/2016 freezing season
« Reply #363 on: February 02, 2016, 09:00:06 PM »
SH, it indicates a stratospheric warming next week. If that happens and if it's big enough, it may disrupt the polar vortex, which then may warm the Arctic and lead to cold outbreaks in middle latitudes.

Do these happen often? Are they occurring more frequently now then in the past?

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Re: The 2015/2016 freezing season
« Reply #364 on: February 03, 2016, 12:29:49 AM »
SH, it indicates a stratospheric warming next week. If that happens and if it's big enough, it may disrupt the polar vortex, which then may warm the Arctic and lead to cold outbreaks in middle latitudes.

Do these happen often? Are they occurring more frequently now then in the past?

I don't know that this link will answer your question, but the post on Nevins blog was certainly a thought provoking read if you are interested in reading more about SSW's. A great demonstration on how someone, without prerequisite academic credentials, could contribute to a scientific rigorous discussion by fleshing an idea out with enough hard work, rational thought, and dedication.

http://neven1.typepad.com/blog/2013/04/sudden-stratospheric-warmings-causes-effects.html

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Re: The 2015/2016 freezing season
« Reply #365 on: February 03, 2016, 01:03:30 AM »
Thanks Jim, that's a nicely sized communications video, since that's about the upper limit for a denier to absorb. Speaking of which, I'd like to follow with this gem posted by Peter Sinclair last year.
Thanks, I was looking for this video the other day (wanted to add it to the Global SIA record blog post I put up).
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Sleepy

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Re: The 2015/2016 freezing season
« Reply #366 on: February 03, 2016, 06:15:39 AM »
SH, it indicates a stratospheric warming next week. If that happens and if it's big enough, it may disrupt the polar vortex, which then may warm the Arctic and lead to cold outbreaks in middle latitudes.

Do these happen often? Are they occurring more frequently now then in the past?
I don't know that this link will answer your question, but the post on Nevins blog was certainly a thought provoking read if you are interested in reading more about SSW's. A great demonstration on how someone, without prerequisite academic credentials, could contribute to a scientific rigorous discussion by fleshing an idea out with enough hard work, rational thought, and dedication.

http://neven1.typepad.com/blog/2013/04/sudden-stratospheric-warmings-causes-effects.html

Sorry SH, I went to sleep. :(
Major warmings doesn't happen every winter but weaker does. There's no sign of colder temperatures ahead in the weather models right now so I would suspect that this one will be weak. I don't know if they occur more often.

pccp82, just had a quick read and that looked like a wonderful post by Randall Gates. I rarely read Nevens blog (sorry Neven) but I bookmarked that one for a closer read later on.

Sleepy

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Re: The 2015/2016 freezing season
« Reply #367 on: February 03, 2016, 06:24:20 AM »
Thanks Jim, that's a nicely sized communications video, since that's about the upper limit for a denier to absorb. Speaking of which, I'd like to follow with this gem posted by Peter Sinclair last year.
Thanks, I was looking for this video the other day (wanted to add it to the Global SIA record blog post I put up).

I love that one, especially Manabe's gesturing and accent. There's another video as well, more focused on drought though, starting with a clip from 1983 and including Manabe from 1988 at the end.

The number of views on youtube indicates that very few find those two interesting, so I must be a very odd person. :)

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Re: The 2015/2016 freezing season
« Reply #368 on: February 03, 2016, 09:33:36 AM »
NOAA have released their initial monthly temperature estimates for January and the figures are remarkable.
http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/cgi-bin/data/timeseries/timeseries1.pl

For 80N+, 2016 is 1 dC warmer than 2006 in Air Temp and 0.6 dC cooler in SSTs, however they are both 2.5 dC warmer than the third place 2005.

For the Arctic Circle, 2016 was more than 2.4 dC ahead of second place 2005

Globally, 2016 was more than 0.22 dC ahead of second place 2007.

So far none of this looks good for the remainder of the freezing season or the melting season.
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crandles

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Re: The 2015/2016 freezing season
« Reply #369 on: February 03, 2016, 12:41:41 PM »
For the Arctic Circle, 2016 was more than 2.4 dC ahead of second place 2005

Globally, 2016 was more than 0.22 dC ahead of second place 2007.

So far none of this looks good for the remainder of the freezing season or the melting season.

Interesting tool. Nice  :)

70N-90N Jan SST:

2005  -23.151
2006  -24.004
2007  -25.655
2008  -26.828
2009  -24.256
2010  -25.691
2011  -24.599
2012  -24.796
2013  -25.269
2014  -25.341
2015  -25.957
2016  -20.549

Over 2.6 degrees C warmer than warmest ever Jan compared to your over 2.4 for Arctic circle

There is a little ice in Barents between 67N and 70N but the main difference is open water in North Atlantic.

For 77N to 70N between -15 and 50E is mainly open water. For this I get Jan SST as 2016 0.808 warmest ever though only slightly warmer than 2005 0.754 and 2006 0.795 other recent years:

2009   -1.448
2010   -0.045
2011   -1.595
2012    0.629
2013    0.622
2014    0.541
2015    0.109

So this open water temperature is warmest ever and though this is by a small margin, this is concerning as the heat capacity of water is so much higher than situation with ice covered area.

I guess it would not be too difficult to work out areas in order to back out that open water area to arrive at an area that is more consistently ice. Removing a negligible temperature difference area would increase the over 2.6C warmer SST than next warmest year further.


2007 had extent going really low but 2005 and 2006 were warmer years. I would think that there was sufficient ice back then for preconditioning to be needed so 2005 and 2006 thinned the ice and made it possible for good weather in 2007 to cause big reduction in extent. I doubt so much preconditioning is needed now so I would think there is now less likely to be such a delay between warm winter(s) and a big retreat in the summer.

Weather might still spoil that, and volume was not at record low at end of December but it will be interesting to see how slowly PIOMAS ice volume rises in Jan

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Re: The 2015/2016 freezing season
« Reply #370 on: February 03, 2016, 04:20:30 PM »
The NSIDC 5 day averaged extent has just joined the "lowest ever for the date" club of Arctic sea ice metrics:

http://GreatWhiteCon.info/2016/02/arctic-sea-ice-area-and-extent-lowest-ever-for-the-date/
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Re: The 2015/2016 freezing season
« Reply #371 on: February 03, 2016, 08:22:36 PM »
P.S. The NSIDC average Arctic sea ice extent for January 2016 is now also in the “lowest ever” club:
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Re: The 2015/2016 freezing season
« Reply #372 on: February 03, 2016, 11:54:53 PM »
Weather might still spoil that, and volume was not at record low at end of December but it will be interesting to see how slowly PIOMAS ice volume rises in Jan

Here are the January increases for years in the 2006-2015 period (in km3):

2006: 3014
2007: 2848
2008: 3562
2009: 3330
2010: 3165
2011: 3185
2012: 3261
2013: 3714
2014: 3027
2015: 3301

Less than 3000 km3 should be possible.
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Re: The 2015/2016 freezing season
« Reply #373 on: February 04, 2016, 12:05:48 AM »
NOAA have released their initial monthly temperature estimates for January and the figures are remarkable.
http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/cgi-bin/data/timeseries/timeseries1.pl

For 80N+, 2016 is 1 dC warmer than 2006 in Air Temp and 0.6 dC cooler in SSTs, however they are both 2.5 dC warmer than the third place 2005.

For the Arctic Circle, 2016 was more than 2.4 dC ahead of second place 2005

What do you guys feel are the best variables to use for the Arctic? What lat/long and what level? What does 'area weight grids' do?
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Re: The 2015/2016 freezing season
« Reply #374 on: February 04, 2016, 01:05:15 AM »
What do you guys feel are the best variables to use for the Arctic? What lat/long and what level? What does 'area weight grids' do?

I would suggest 90N to 70N  and -180 to 180. This misses a bit of Chukchi and Baring but that isn't a huge quantity. Trying to mess about deducting 77N to 70N -10 to 50 probably isn't worth it in most cases.

area weight grids presumably area weight grids  ;) If selected, I take it that grid cells that have a larger area will get weighted by their area which is what you want to get a fair average. If you don't tick it, I assume such grid cells are given equal weight which you don't want as it gives too much weighting to small cells near the pole.

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Re: The 2015/2016 freezing season
« Reply #375 on: February 04, 2016, 04:37:17 AM »
Ten day forecast for 10mb, this time from ECMWF.
Click to animate.

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Re: The 2015/2016 freezing season
« Reply #376 on: February 04, 2016, 05:10:19 AM »
quite extreme Fram transport for the next week or longer. That's the current situation:


P.S.: @Neven, I think the weak spot was real - models showed quite some divergence around that date (plus probably Spitzbergen current being pulled under the ice), as they do now.

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Re: The 2015/2016 freezing season
« Reply #377 on: February 04, 2016, 05:57:18 AM »
can you explain your reason to believe in a higher max than last year while i think it even a possibility that we won't even cross the 14M this year and 15M+ would definitely come as a big surprise for me. ready to learn about your reasons for your expectations so to look at things from a different angle perhaps :-)

NB.  I am referring to NSIDC extent not  IJIS which is significantly lower.

2014 saw record sea surface temperatures across the North Pacific for most of the last six months of the year. This year, that area while quite warm is not  near record breaking.  My  hypothesis last year was that the warmth would slow extent growth in the Pacific. This is where most of the growth will come from over the next two months. 

This year I expect more growth in the Pacific and, because it contains of a very long ice edge extent can easily get up to 15M km^2 overall.

I  predicted a low figure last yearand it turned out to be true although a lot of that was the result of a series of storms that moved through the Barents in Feb and March.  These storms may actually have thickened the ice edge in the Barents, which did not retreat or fragment much later in the year.

One possibility is that a low maximum extent can be caused by a compacted pack that is stronger, leading to less melt later.

You are right at this time last year their was warmer SST anomalies sorrounding the bearing sea.

This year ssta to the S, SW, and W are cooler while warm anomalies exist closer to Alaska.

The one caveat in this is the persistent Aleutian vortex which given the way this super nino has persisted we should see the vortex slowly retrograde West this will likely keep the flow predominantly out of the East, and ESE over the bearing with lots of strong Llwa and mlwa intrusions into the bearing


So I doubt we see the ice grow and slide South much at all with those warmer moisture laden airmasses keeping the sea surface  to marginal for sustainable ice sheet growth.

But we'll see.


Looking at weather charts the SOO looks pretty freaking cold with light winds coming off very very cold land the next week.

I know it's further South and solar insolation will matter there soon but I'd think we might see some strong Ice sheet expansion there.

The Barents looks screwed for a while.
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Re: The 2015/2016 freezing season
« Reply #378 on: February 04, 2016, 06:03:29 AM »
For the Arctic Circle, 2016 was more than 2.4 dC ahead of second place 2005

Globally, 2016 was more than 0.22 dC ahead of second place 2007.

So far none of this looks good for the remainder of the freezing season or the melting season.

Interesting tool. Nice  :)

70N-90N Jan SST:

2005  -23.151
2006  -24.004
2007  -25.655
2008  -26.828
2009  -24.256
2010  -25.691
2011  -24.599
2012  -24.796
2013  -25.269
2014  -25.341
2015  -25.957
2016  -20.549

Over 2.6 degrees C warmer than warmest ever Jan compared to your over 2.4 for Arctic circle

There is a little ice in Barents between 67N and 70N but the main difference is open water in North Atlantic.

For 77N to 70N between -15 and 50E is mainly open water. For this I get Jan SST as 2016 0.808 warmest ever though only slightly warmer than 2005 0.754 and 2006 0.795 other recent years:

2009   -1.448
2010   -0.045
2011   -1.595
2012    0.629
2013    0.622
2014    0.541
2015    0.109

So this open water temperature is warmest ever and though this is by a small margin, this is concerning as the heat capacity of water is so much higher than situation with ice covered area.

I guess it would not be too difficult to work out areas in order to back out that open water area to arrive at an area that is more consistently ice. Removing a negligible temperature difference area would increase the over 2.6C warmer SST than next warmest year further.


2007 had extent going really low but 2005 and 2006 were warmer years. I would think that there was sufficient ice back then for preconditioning to be needed so 2005 and 2006 thinned the ice and made it possible for good weather in 2007 to cause big reduction in extent. I doubt so much preconditioning is needed now so I would think there is now less likely to be such a delay between warm winter(s) and a big retreat in the summer.

Weather might still spoil that, and volume was not at record low at end of December but it will be interesting to see how slowly PIOMAS ice volume rises in Jan

Ive been sick recently so I might be missing the obvious.

But how do you get -20C SST?

Sea surface temperatures?
Or Surface skin temperatures?

Which I Suppose is basically 2M temps (surface temps)

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Re: The 2015/2016 freezing season
« Reply #379 on: February 04, 2016, 07:04:32 AM »
I would suggest 90N to 70N  and -180 to 180. This misses a bit of Chukchi and Baring but that isn't a huge quantity. Trying to mess about deducting 77N to 70N -10 to 50 probably isn't worth it in most cases.

area weight grids presumably area weight grids  ;) If selected, I take it that grid cells that have a larger area will get weighted by their area which is what you want to get a fair average. If you don't tick it, I assume such grid cells are given equal weight which you don't want as it gives too much weighting to small cells near the pole.

Thanks, crandles. And the thing about 'area weight grids' makes sense. I always forget how that works.

P.S.: @Neven, I think the weak spot was real - models showed quite some divergence around that date (plus probably Spitzbergen current being pulled under the ice), as they do now.
Yes, probably, CT and NSIDC SIC maps also show discoloration in that area, although the smudge is fading away now on the UB SIC map.

Quote
quite extreme Fram transport for the next week or longer.

Indeed, just look at the DMI pressure map. That's an impressive dipole with lots of isobars flowing straight to the North Atlantic. And it will continue and intensify next week (a very negative AO is being projected). Normally this would make for rapid increases on extent and area charts, but maybe this time will be different, with all that heat.

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Re: The 2015/2016 freezing season
« Reply #380 on: February 04, 2016, 10:10:47 AM »
<snip>

Indeed, just look at the DMI pressure map. That's an impressive dipole with lots of isobars flowing straight to the North Atlantic. And it will continue and intensify next week (a very negative AO is being projected). Normally this would make for rapid increases on extent and area charts, but maybe this time will be different, with all that heat.
It is doubtful dumping 20K/day out the Fram will be helpful in a few months, whether it slows Area/Extent or not....
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Re: The 2015/2016 freezing season
« Reply #381 on: February 04, 2016, 11:14:17 AM »
can you explain your reason to believe in a higher max than last year while i think it even a possibility that we won't even cross the 14M this year and 15M+ would definitely come as a big surprise for me. ready to learn about your reasons for your expectations so to look at things from a different angle perhaps :-)

I must admit to being concerned also - the current measurement for coverage are lowest on record and bumping along the 2 standard deviation limit

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Re: The 2015/2016 freezing season
« Reply #382 on: February 04, 2016, 11:49:34 AM »
I would suggest 90N to 70N  and -180 to 180. This misses a bit of Chukchi and Baring but that isn't a huge quantity. Trying to mess about deducting 77N to 70N -10 to 50 probably isn't worth it in most cases.

area weight grids presumably area weight grids  ;) If selected, I take it that grid cells that have a larger area will get weighted by their area which is what you want to get a fair average. If you don't tick it, I assume such grid cells are given equal weight which you don't want as it gives too much weighting to small cells near the pole.

Thanks, crandles. And the thing about 'area weight grids' makes sense. I always forget how that works.

P.S.: @Neven, I think the weak spot was real - models showed quite some divergence around that date (plus probably Spitzbergen current being pulled under the ice), as they do now.
Yes, probably, CT and NSIDC SIC maps also show discoloration in that area, although the smudge is fading away now on the UB SIC map.

Quote
quite extreme Fram transport for the next week or longer.

Indeed, just look at the DMI pressure map. That's an impressive dipole with lots of isobars flowing straight to the North Atlantic. And it will continue and intensify next week (a very negative AO is being projected). Normally this would make for rapid increases on extent and area charts, but maybe this time will be different, with all that heat.

That particular set up is flushing a lot of ice.  But it's also sending the oldest ice West towards the CAB and Beaufort and CAA islands

While yeah some older ice on Atlantic side will get flushed.  A lot of first year ice is getting the boot.

With that being said.

The ice being flushed regardless of age will be replaced by thinner snow free FYI.

With that being said.  This pattern being in place in late April/early May would bring a huge boom of solar insolation to the basin.





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Re: The 2015/2016 freezing season
« Reply #383 on: February 04, 2016, 01:11:47 PM »
can you explain your reason to believe in a higher max than last year while i think it even a possibility that we won't even cross the 14M this year and 15M+ would definitely come as a big surprise for me. ready to learn about your reasons for your expectations so to look at things from a different angle perhaps :-)

I must admit to being concerned also - the current measurement for coverage are lowest on record and bumping along the 2 standard deviation limit
See my  response above:
http://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,1377.msg69425.html#msg69425
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Re: The 2015/2016 freezing season
« Reply #384 on: February 04, 2016, 01:14:15 PM »
<snip>

Indeed, just look at the DMI pressure map. That's an impressive dipole with lots of isobars flowing straight to the North Atlantic. And it will continue and intensify next week (a very negative AO is being projected). Normally this would make for rapid increases on extent and area charts, but maybe this time will be different, with all that heat.
It is doubtful dumping 20K/day out the Fram will be helpful in a few months, whether it slows Area/Extent or not....

Sure, I agree. I'm looking at this right from the perspective of the Arctic max (and also a bit for the CT Global SIA minimum, which could break the record).
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Re: The 2015/2016 freezing season
« Reply #385 on: February 04, 2016, 03:03:26 PM »

But how do you get -20C SST?

Sea surface temperatures?
Or Surface skin temperatures?

Which I Suppose is basically 2M temps (surface temps)

Yes SST = surface skin temperature = top of snow where ocean is ice and snow covered.
2m air temperatures won't be far different.

Not an expert on "NCEP Reanalysis Dataset" but I get impression to get the coverage they are giving, it will include satellite measurements and a lot of the available weather data which have then been put through reanalysis process to model the weather and thereby enable them to weed out erroneous and implausible values.

I don't think satellites can do 2m air temperatures but they are better at surface skin temperatures.

If you choose a 1 degree box over land a value is produced further suggesting surface skin temperature rather than sea surface temp.

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Re: The 2015/2016 freezing season
« Reply #386 on: February 04, 2016, 07:23:26 PM »
I notice that NSIDC have been shifting their baseline for the historical Extent average.  I remember 2005, it was baselined against 1981 – 2000.  Today it’s 1981 – 2010.

Howe is it possible for us mere mortals to track the relative SD rates when they keep moving the baseline down?  I’m pretty certain that if we were to compare extents on the same baseline, the message would be a lot worse than just over 2SD…
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Re: The 2015/2016 freezing season
« Reply #387 on: February 04, 2016, 08:47:49 PM »
I notice that NSIDC have been shifting their baseline for the historical Extent average.  I remember 2005, it was baselined against 1981 – 2000.  Today it’s 1981 – 2010.

Howe is it possible for us mere mortals to track the relative SD rates when they keep moving the baseline down?  I’m pretty certain that if we were to compare extents on the same baseline, the message would be a lot worse than just over 2SD…
I suspect their rationale is similar to that behind the use of running short term averages for trending extent and area.  It makes the graphing less jittery.

Extending the baseline will narrow the apparent differences between emerging conditions and history, which I'm not to keen about from a PR standpoint.  However, I think it may be useful at highlighting "acceleration".  Continuing anomalies against an average containing more recent values would smooth anomalies if accelerating change isn't happening. 

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Re: The 2015/2016 freezing season
« Reply #388 on: February 05, 2016, 01:13:24 AM »
Terra affords us our first glimpse of the Mackenzie Delta in 2016:

http://GreatWhiteCon.info/resources/arctic-sea-ice-images/winter-2015-16-images/#Beaufort
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Re: The 2015/2016 freezing season
« Reply #389 on: February 05, 2016, 01:26:48 AM »
I notice that NSIDC have been shifting their baseline for the historical Extent average.  I remember 2005, it was baselined against 1981 – 2000.  Today it’s 1981 – 2010.
I suspect their rationale is similar to that behind the use of running short term averages for trending extent and area.  It makes the graphing less jittery.

Quoted from:  http://www.wmo.int/pages/prog/wcp/ccl/faqs.php

What is Climate?

Climate, sometimes understood as the "average weather,” is defined as the measurement of the mean and variability of relevant quantities of certain variables (such as temperature, precipitation or wind) over a period of time, ranging from months to thousands or millions of years.
The classical period is 30 years, as defined by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO).  Climate in a wider sense is the state, including a statistical description, of the climate system
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Jim Hunt

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Re: The 2015/2016 freezing season
« Reply #390 on: February 05, 2016, 02:09:25 AM »
An organisation that must remain nameless has released it's latest newsletter:

http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/2016/02/january-hits-new-record-low-in-the-arctic/

Quote
January Arctic sea ice extent was the lowest in the satellite record, attended by unusually high air temperatures over the Arctic Ocean and a strong negative phase of the Arctic Oscillation (AO) for the first three weeks of the month. Meanwhile in the Antarctic, this year’s extent was lower than average for January, in contrast to the record high extents in January 2015.

Actually I could have told them that:

http://GreatWhiteCon.info/2016/02/arctic-sea-ice-area-and-extent-lowest-ever-for-the-date/
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Re: The 2015/2016 freezing season
« Reply #391 on: February 05, 2016, 04:02:50 AM »
I notice that NSIDC have been shifting their baseline for the historical Extent average.  I remember 2005, it was baselined against 1981 – 2000.  Today it’s 1981 – 2010.
I suspect their rationale is similar to that behind the use of running short term averages for trending extent and area.  It makes the graphing less jittery.

Quoted from:  http://www.wmo.int/pages/prog/wcp/ccl/faqs.php

What is Climate?

Climate, sometimes understood as the "average weather,” is defined as the measurement of the mean and variability of relevant quantities of certain variables (such as temperature, precipitation or wind) over a period of time, ranging from months to thousands or millions of years.
The classical period is 30 years, as defined by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO).  Climate in a wider sense is the state, including a statistical description, of the climate system
.


Note: All postings, opinions, etc. are my own and not representative of any organization.

So, in essence, what they are doing is coming into conformance with the standard.   ;)  Excellent.
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Re: The 2015/2016 freezing season
« Reply #392 on: February 05, 2016, 05:58:13 AM »
The reason 1981-2010 is picked is because that is the best information we have is based on satellite observation. The difficulty with picking those years is somewhat like saying that a car which has been sitting around for a very long time then taken out or a drive and because it is only seen while it is accelerating, you then pick the 30-80 acceleration time frame as the average while it proceeds accelerating on to 300. It gives you somewhat of an idea as to what is happening, but it does distort things as it gives the impression of a flat line where in fact things have already started to move.
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Re: The 2015/2016 freezing season
« Reply #393 on: February 05, 2016, 08:33:23 PM »
The North Atlantic / Barents has been hotter than usual for the past 6 months according to  NOAA, generally  in the 5 warmest for each  month. The Pacific seas has been quite a bit cooler than last  year.  More like top 10 than top 5.

The Pacific side will  probably see quite a bit of growth in mid winter whereas I  expect  the Atlantic to have low increases and rapidly disappearing ice as the summer develops.  I'm betting  on  a maximum around 15 and minimum around 3.5 - 4 for the NSIDC extent.

What in the post 2007 era everyone is missing and is critical to the Arctic ice melt especially in the Northern Atlantic and is a player on why it's abnormally warm is the increase in volcanic activity at the Gakkel Ridge here's an article from December 2014

<comment edited by Neven: No links to BS sites, please. As for volcanoes causing Arctic sea ice loss/AGW...  ::) :-\ >
« Last Edit: February 05, 2016, 09:23:28 PM by Neven »

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Re: The 2015/2016 freezing season
« Reply #394 on: February 05, 2016, 10:09:15 PM »
The North Atlantic / Barents has been hotter than usual for the past 6 months according to  NOAA, generally  in the 5 warmest for each  month. The Pacific seas has been quite a bit cooler than last  year.  More like top 10 than top 5.

The Pacific side will  probably see quite a bit of growth in mid winter whereas I  expect  the Atlantic to have low increases and rapidly disappearing ice as the summer develops.  I'm betting  on  a maximum around 15 and minimum around 3.5 - 4 for the NSIDC extent.

What in the post 2007 era everyone is missing and is critical to the Arctic ice melt especially in the Northern Atlantic and is a player on why it's abnormally warm is the increase in volcanic activity at the Gakkel Ridge here's an article from December 2014

<comment edited by Neven: No links to BS sites, please. As for volcanoes causing Arctic sea ice loss/AGW...  ::) :-\ >
Kingbum - I debunked the Gakkel Ridge heating assertions a few weeks ago here https://www.facebook.com/groups/abc.volcanoes/ (look for my comments around Jan 21).  Please don't spam us with bad information.  Here's my main comment.

 <to poster> its a matter of scale. The net heat being conducted from depth out of the earth is a fairly small number - on the order of 1/10th of a watt per square meter. Even prompt releases of heat via an eruption don't really make a difference there, as the total enthalpy of the ocean is measured in PENTAjoules - 10^15 joules. It is neither to the necessary scale, nor quick enough. Heat released via thermal transfer from the mantle barely twitches the net heat re-radiated out of the top of the earth's atmosphere. That's where CO2 and Methane forcing become an issue, as they reduce that radiation until the underlying atmosphere heats up sufficiently to re-balance the exchange.

Consider at a small scale something for comparison. I got to have a ring side seat for St. Helen's eruption back in 2004. It was small - VEI1 or 2 - and consisted mostly of a dome building event, which would be similar to the kind of activity we'd see along an oceanic ridge.

Even though we watched that dome rise for *months*, what struck me was the annular glacier that had built up since the previous eruptions in the 80's. It never went away, and for good reason. The heat was neither sufficient, nor convected into it so that it would melt.
« Last Edit: February 05, 2016, 10:16:29 PM by jdallen »
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Re: The 2015/2016 freezing season
« Reply #395 on: February 05, 2016, 10:39:10 PM »
Now, let's look at the Barents for a bit.  I snatched the graph below off of a Jeff Master's post here: http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/absurd-january-warmth-in-arctic-brings-recordlow-sea-ice-extent

Barent's ice extent peaked about a week ago at around 350,000KM2.  That's fully 250K lower than last year at this time, and similarly 250K below the 1979-2008 mean.

This, more than the weather blowing up from the south, has been the source of heat we've seen tearing across the NW CAB for the last month and a half.  And there is still a lot of it. That fact becomes glaringly obvious when you look at the NOAA/NCEP temperature maps - the Barents is generally 2-8C - and mostly over 4C - warmer than normal.

That's a staggering amount of heat, especially this late in the season.

And even this, much lower extent is going to start falling off quite rapidly; from the graph, looking forward, under normal conditions, the Barents would be losing ~5000 KM2 a day from there until it bottoms out at the end of the melt season.  That ice can be replaced by export out of the CAB, and last year, in fact it was - with a lot of ice getting shoved out through the gap between Svalbard and Franz Josef, and also through the approaches to the Kara.  But even with that - TAANSTAFL - there ain't no such thing as a free lunch - ice exported will be ocean exposed elsewhere - certainly after the equinox.

I'm concerned, because as insolation ramps up, we've now got 250-300K or more ice free ocean to start sucking up sunlight - it will seriously decrease over all high latitude albedo. - most of it north of 70, upto and in some areas past 80 degrees of latitude.

I think it will totally change spring weather in the region.  I'm uncertain what effect it will have on ice in the adjoining seas, as yet.


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Re: The 2015/2016 freezing season
« Reply #396 on: February 06, 2016, 06:44:26 AM »
During a late Spring/Summer dipole anomaly the Barents/Far NW Atlantic area becomes an ice grinding wasteland where ice melting rates over the course of 100km can go from equilibrium to 30-50cm a day.

One of the recent summers the Barents was roasting.  Pretty sure it was 2015.  And the ice edge was pushed back towards the Warmer 2-5C+ water with winds persistent for days. 

On visible satellites all of a sudden the ice edge turned from normal sharp ice floes to swirled edges of floes that were crippled in a matter of days.

On Bremen the 90-100% hires ice edge abruptly became a 50km wide 30-70% ice edge.

It's harder to get the warm sets to move into the core because ocean depths increase at substansially and the heat/higher PSU gets submerged and likely diffused.

However we have started to see up between 82-85N in August the fresh water layer from melting ice get a quick hit of waa + sun and some pockets of 1-3C water emerge for a few days at a time.

Something even pre 2012 was thought to be unheard off.  Then in 2012 and 2013 the Atlantic side took a beating it's never been the same.

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TenneyNaumer

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Re: The 2015/2016 freezing season
« Reply #397 on: February 08, 2016, 04:59:04 AM »
Hey Frivolous -- I am originally from Du Quoin!  Nice to see you here!

Jim Hunt

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Re: The 2015/2016 freezing season
« Reply #398 on: February 08, 2016, 09:44:06 PM »
Neven's been following this number on the ASIB, and so has "Snow White" in her ivory tower.

Cryosphere Today global sea ice area fell to its lowest level *ever today. Period!

(*Since their records began)
« Last Edit: February 08, 2016, 11:08:37 PM by Jim Hunt »
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Pmt111500

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Re: The 2015/2016 freezing season
« Reply #399 on: February 09, 2016, 01:37:27 PM »
Cryosphere Today global sea ice area fell to its lowest level *ever today. Period!

(*Since their records began)
That it did. Non-scientific calculation reveals that at this loss rate of 7,5%/37 years it takes 493 1/3 years for both polar areas to be free of sea ice at the same time.   :P ::) ;)  (please do not quote)
« Last Edit: February 09, 2016, 04:56:37 PM by Pmt111500 »
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