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Andreas T

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Re: The 2015/2016 freezing season
« Reply #450 on: February 14, 2016, 11:04:41 PM »
looking at outgoing longwave radiation (I take brightness temperature as an indication of that) this opening water and thin ice is loosing heat. Of course the fog forming also can radiate heat down wards from higher, warmer air above an inversion layer. Which has a stronger effect is hard to guess but at this time of the year open water is not warmed but cooled

P-maker

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Re: The 2015/2016 freezing season
« Reply #451 on: February 14, 2016, 11:08:29 PM »
Jdallen & Neven

You are absolutely right. It is an amazing image of frost smoke you present. Actually, the Wikipedia: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sea_smoke is not at all correct in this matter. Frost smoke should have it’s own entry, since this phase change during midwinter directly from liquid to airborne frozen particles over large swaths of the Beaufort Sea right now is essentially a physical impromptu.

Similarly, the massive phase change during spring from snow and ice through sublimation to airborne liquid humidity is also a physical impromptu. Ordinary snow and ice models would melt or freeze stuff, but nature wants to do it otherwise. It may be the new normal we are seeing, but our understanding of the physic hasn’t quite caught up yet.

I have previously alluded to the predominance of drizzle. Again this is a physical impromptu, since no one seems to understand why drizzle has become the dominant form of precipitation recently.

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Neven

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Re: The 2015/2016 freezing season
« Reply #452 on: February 14, 2016, 11:17:56 PM »
For comparison, here are my blog posts discussing the 2013 cracking event:

Cracks of dawn (March 2nd)

and

Crack is bad for you (and sea ice) (March 14th)
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jdallen

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Re: The 2015/2016 freezing season
« Reply #453 on: February 15, 2016, 01:28:56 AM »
For comparison, here are my blog posts discussing the 2013 cracking event:

Cracks of dawn (March 2nd)

and

Crack is bad for you (and sea ice) (March 14th)

Just so, and was that event and similar activity in both 2014 and 2015 I was thinking about.

In 2013 of course, the portents did not translate into dramatic melt.  The 2013 melt season was quite cool, and the ice at the end of the melt season had risen back above 2007 levels.

The cracking and heat leakage implies to me that the ice is weak, and, considering the point we are in the season, and the incredible inflows of heat we are getting, those open water areas are unlikely to refreeze much past a meter in thickness, *if* *that*.  There simply isn't enough time, nor is there the necessary gradient in temperature present. Even if the bottom falls out from under the 2M temperatures, it won't help enough.

As we saw with 2013, what's happening now is all table dressing.   In 2013 the heat didn't come to the table.  2014 was more of the same.  2015 had us worried - in what was all in all, a relatively mild melt season, ending in a statistical heat with 2007/2011.

The table is being set, now we get to fidget nervously as the melt season dice start getting warmed up; only this time, they are loaded by El Nino.
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Andreas T

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Re: The 2015/2016 freezing season
« Reply #454 on: February 15, 2016, 10:23:36 AM »
...
The cracking and heat leakage implies to me that the ice is weak, and, considering the point we are in the season, and the incredible inflows of heat we are getting, those open water areas are unlikely to refreeze much past a meter in thickness, *if* *that*.  There simply isn't enough time, nor is there the necessary gradient in temperature present. Even if the bottom falls out from under the 2M temperatures, it won't help enough.
...

I agree that ice formed on these areas of open water won't be very thick. Peary used such frozen leads as convenient flat stretches of ice on his trip to the pole but points out that the easier travel on unridged ice has to be weighed against the risk of breaking though (without survival suits and helicopter rescue)
What I wanted to point out on the brightness temperature image above is that the IR which is detected by the satellite is going out to space. What makes these ice surfaces so very cold over the winter is not cold air, it is their negative radiation balance. The ice cools the air, not the other way round. (the snow layer on top of the ice to be precise)
Warm air needs to get to the surface to warm it, but there it gets cold and gets in the way of more warmer air which is less dense than the cold.
That these areas of freezing over water form without a noticeable increase in extent would suggest that there is compression happening elsewhere. What the consequence of ridges are for melting exactly I don't know but I guess they are mostly reducing melt as a fraction of volume.

In short: that it isn't possible to predict melt season from what we see now, has been demonstrated by the recent years. Looking at the physics of what cracks do to the ice also shows that they should help to increase ice volume.
How much such an increase can do in a climate which generally reduces ice growth and increases ice melt I can't guess. The complexity of these competing processes is what makes watching ice melt so fascinating for me.

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Re: The 2015/2016 freezing season
« Reply #455 on: February 15, 2016, 11:21:24 AM »
Andreas T "The ice cools the air, not the other way round. " ? Surely not.
I think when the air temperature nears zero we'll see the real temperature of the underlying ocean, at the moment with air temps of around -20c any exposed water rapidly gets to -2c and feezes over. When exposed the sea shows at around -1.3c which is either the actual temp of the underlying ocean or could be a consequence of bottom melt, with the freshly melted water coming to the surface. I think the latter more likely.

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Re: The 2015/2016 freezing season
« Reply #456 on: February 15, 2016, 12:39:18 PM »
Andreas is correct, the radiative heat loss from the surface of the ice can't be matched by conductive heat gained from the underlying water once a certain thickness has been reached so the ice surface drops to very low temperatures.  The near-surface air becomes very cold by conduction but is stable so there is no convection.  If a crack opens up heat loss from the surface increases and inflowing cold air from over the ice will cause an ice layer to form rapidly.

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Re: The 2015/2016 freezing season
« Reply #457 on: February 15, 2016, 02:12:49 PM »
Quote
Buddy, sorry for that, but we are _not_ likely to see an inch per year of sea level rise. Maybe half an inch per year in twenty years' time. I think one should stay always grounded on facts and proper modelling. Half an inch per year is sufficiently devastating to coastal communities. One doesn't need to spin baseless doomsday scenarios to be concerned...

The atmospheric temperature INCREASE in 2015 over 2014 was .2 degrees C.  THAT....is about 20% of the total atmospheric increase in the 20th century.  Think about that for a second....and let that one soak in.

I would LOVE to think that I am "spinning" based on some Al Gore "doomsday scenario."  But that is HARDLY what I am doing.

I am taking a good hard look at FACTS.....and not only facts, but the QUICKLY CHANGING LANDSCAPE of those facts.  Those changes lead me to believe....that more change is coming, and it will come at an increasingly faster pace.

No....not an "Al Gore" horror film....or whatever you seem to think I am describing.  But there are SIGNIFICANT changes in the Greenland ice sheet and the Antarctic....that I believe will lead to a faster rise in the oceans from both melt and thermal expansion of the oceans.  And I believe an increase in atmospheric temperatures as well as ocean temperatures will both play a part.

As much as I would like to think that I am "overplaying my hand"......I don't think I am.  While an inch of ocean rise in a SINGLE YEAR sometime in the next couple of decades seems (and is) A LOT.....I would not be so quick to dismiss it "out of hand."  There are likely many areas of both Greenland and the Antarctic that could cause such a rise if more and more "pressure" is applied by the climate (both by the atmosphere AND the oceans).

I urge people not to think in just what HAS HAPPENED from year-to-year and the pace of what HAS HAPPENED.....but I encourage people to see where we are heading......and what those current and NEAR FUTURE changes may REALISTICALLY look like (not what we WANT them to look like) given the changes THAT ARE HAPPENING NOW....and what they would look like if they speeded up.

I understand that we just are "wrapping up" a large El Nino....and that is certainly a big part of the atmospheric increase.  But don't fall into the trap of thinking we are going back down to some "much lower" level of increase.  China has yet to seriously clean up their air....and once that REALLY kicks in......that will help to raise temps even more.



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NeilT

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Re: The 2015/2016 freezing season
« Reply #458 on: February 15, 2016, 02:49:43 PM »
It’s unlikely that the 2015 heat increase will be maintained throughout 2016 and more likely that the average of the temperatures will fall back closer to the median by the end of this year or the end of next year.

This is what happened in 1998 and 2005.  2015 was an outlier year driven by a large El Nino, as was 1998.  What is more interesting is that on a decadal basis, the outlier years tend to be caught by the background level within 10 to 15 years.

So, somewhere around 2025 or 2030 that 0.2C raise would be the norm.  Giving us a raise of around 3C-4C over the pre industrial background by 2100…  Of course if we keep on pushing 3.01ppm CO2 into the atmosphere every 2 – 3 years with 2.5ppm CO2 being the norm for the lower years, then we could see that being 4C – 6C by 2100…

A temp raise of the latter level could see 3-4M sea level rise by 2100 but, again, the vast majority of it would come from around 2060 onwards.

That, to me, is the great tragedy of AGW and the way our society wants it to work as opposed to how it does work.

Back before 2000 I likened what we were doing with CO2 to rolling a huge rock up a mountain coll.  Eventually you reach the top of the mountain coll and you have easy going as you roll it over the top.  But once it goes over the top and starts to descend, all bets are off and village earth is at the bottom.  Trying to stop it once it has gone that far will be more effort than we can ever convince people to give.  It will start slowly and the momentum will build.  By the time people accept there is a real problem, it will be so large with so much accumulated inertia, that stopping it will either be impossible for us or cost so many lives we will simply try and run away.

There is no real running away from village earth for most of humanity.

So we will continue to watch the train wreck.  2016 will continue the trend with its unknowns and the differing losses and gains.  The only thing which will be true is that the background decadal signature for ice loss will remain relatively stable in terms of how much we lose, decade on decade.  With, perhaps, even a bit of acceleration.

There will be no sudden massive raise of either sea levels or temperatures, in my lifetime, unless every model there is has some fundamental flaw in it and I don’t believe they do.
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Metamemesis

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Re: The 2015/2016 freezing season
« Reply #459 on: February 15, 2016, 05:20:30 PM »
Current predictions are that 2016 will be hotter than 2015 due to the fact that the atmospheric temperature signal from El Nino is delayed, combined with the fact that it only peaked in January of 2016. See the Met Office predictions http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/news/releases/archive/2015/global-temperature in support of 2016 being hotter than 2015.

We also see this continuing increase in global temperature from the December temperature anomaly which was +1.11°C above 20th Century average, i.e. the hottest month on record. See www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/global/201512 for more detail.  Given that warming at the poles is occurring almost twice as fast as the rest of the globe, the recent temp anomalies in the Arctic reflect this current trend. According to recent analysis, 2015 would have been the hottest year on record even without the current El Nino, which contributed only 7% to 10% of the increase in temperature. A useful summary (with links) can be found here: www.skepticalscience.com/how-much-el-nino-boost-2015-temp.html.

This means there will be greater potential for melt of Arctic sea ice during 2016, due to the greater amount of heat within the system as a whole. That doesn't mean such heat will invariably end up in the Arctic, but it does mean that if the weather conditions are more favourable to melt, then there is a greater potential/probability for low area/extent/volume of arctic sea ice. But as those of us who have lingered here long enough will know, everything depends on the weather.

My prediction/speculation is that record global temps, combined with this year's likely 'head-start' in terms of low maximum extent/area, will see 2016 break all records for minimum volume, area and extent.

P.s. Sea level rise is currently non-linear; it is closer to an exponential curve than a linear projection. The maximum height of a free standing ice-wall (roughly 100m) is not currently incorporated into most projections/models on sea-level rise. This c.100m maximum, along with the loss of buttressing ice, is the principle reason that Jakobshavn Glacier (and others) are accelerating. I would strongly recommend watching glaciologist Richard Alley's presentation on this, as it is a crucial - but often overlooked - element of sea-level rise, and explains the process behind meltwater pulse 1A and 1B. Most relevant part for this is at 29:00 minutes into the vid
« Last Edit: February 15, 2016, 06:03:17 PM by Metamemesis »

Sleepy

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Re: The 2015/2016 freezing season
« Reply #460 on: February 15, 2016, 05:31:38 PM »
More disturbances ahead according to GFS at 10mb. This is between February 23:rd and March 2:nd.

Click to animate.

DavidR

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Re: The 2015/2016 freezing season
« Reply #461 on: February 15, 2016, 06:06:27 PM »
It’s unlikely that the 2015 heat increase will be maintained throughout 2016 and more likely that the average of the temperatures will fall back closer to the median by the end of this year or the end of next year.

This is what happened in 1998 and 2005.  2015 was an outlier year driven by a large El Nino, as was 1998.  What is more interesting is that on a decadal basis, the outlier years tend to be caught by the background level within 10 to 15 years.

When it comes to temperature 2015 should be compared with 1997 not 1998. We should expect  to see record high temperatures through to about August this year. The 1997/1998 El Nino peaked at the end of 1997 and both 1997 and 1998 were record hot years. This El Nino has just  peaked  and all of the past 4 months have been more than 0.2 degC hotter than any equivalent month.

The last 4 months of 1997 were all records and were on average 0.13 hotter than the previous record. The past 4 months in this cycle were 0.26, on average, hotter than the previous record. (GISS figures)  We should expect another jump this year of at least  0.1 degC.

I do not expect to see another year as cool as 2014 in my lifetime.
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Pmt111500

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Re: The 2015/2016 freezing season
« Reply #462 on: February 15, 2016, 06:45:36 PM »

When it comes to temperature 2015 should be compared with 1997 not 1998. We should expect  to see record high temperatures through to about August this year.


July, but ok, all through september possible esp. looking at the latest la nada forecast.

Quote
The 1997/1998 El Nino peaked at the end of 1997 and both 1997 and 1998 were record hot years. This El Nino has just  peaked  and all of the past 4 months have been more than 0.2 degC hotter than any equivalent month.

The last 4 months of 1997 were all records and were on average 0.13 hotter than the previous record. The past 4 months in this cycle were 0.26, on average, hotter than the previous record. (GISS figures)  We should expect another jump this year of at least  0.1 degC.

I do not expect to see another year as cool as 2014 in my lifetime.

Yeah, 2014 was miserably cool though still in top20.

Neven

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Re: The 2015/2016 freezing season
« Reply #463 on: February 15, 2016, 08:02:16 PM »
People, this is the FREEZING SEASON thread. Why did I set up this forum? To get all the off-topic AGW banter away from the Arctic Sea Ice Blog. Do I now need to set up another forum to get the off-topic AGW banter out of this thread? C'mon.
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jdallen

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Re: The 2015/2016 freezing season
« Reply #464 on: February 15, 2016, 08:48:01 PM »
Andreas - I think we were talking past one another, and are generally in agreement, but there are a couple of things I disagree with you on.

...What I wanted to point out on the brightness temperature image above is that the IR which is detected by the satellite is going out to space. What makes these ice surfaces so very cold over the winter is not cold air, it is their negative radiation balance.

Absolutely agree - in the image I posted we're looking at loss from black body radiation, not convection, though I expect there's quite a bit of that going on as well at the sea surface where we have open water.

... The ice cools the air, not the other way round. (the snow layer on top of the ice to be precise) ... Warm air needs to get to the surface to warm it, but there it gets cold and gets in the way of more warmer air which is less dense than the cold.

Considering the recent temperature profile of the mass balance buoy Jim Hunt posted, that's very hard assertion to swallow.  I've seen buoy profiles which have a "reservoir" of cold - temperatures going from near freezing at the surface grading to -20 one hundred or so CM below the surface and then grading back up to freezing at the ice/water interface.

That however was at the end of the season, with ice that was at or over 3M in thickness - not something we have over much of currently; and even where we have it, I'm doubtful heat flow has permitted that ice to lose that much heat at this stage of the melting season.

When air cools at the ice surface, it's not a result of ice cooling the air by conductive transport at the ice surface, rather it's exactly what you point out - air losing heat via black body radiation - which is not replaced fast enough via convection to balance the lost energy.

Put simply - the balance of heat flow at the ice surface, especially when covered with snow, is still in the opposite direction - ocean -> to ice -> to atmosphere - not the other way around, until such time as SST's are well above -1.8C.

That these areas of freezing over water form without a noticeable increase in extent would suggest that there is compression happening elsewhere. What the consequence of ridges are for melting exactly I don't know but I guess they are mostly reducing melt as a fraction of volume.

I think it would be a very tall order to quantify how much compression is taking place, and I think it is easy to overstate it given current conditions.  Expansion of leads in one area can also be taken up by closing of incompletely frozen leads elsewhere. 

It can also be taken up by export; the reanimated Fram this refreeze season has easily exported over 500,000KM2 of ice.  The lions share of that has been MYI.  While some of that remains as the current extent in the Greenland sea, much of that export has met it's doom at the margins where it is encountering astonishing and persistent heat in the water.

Lastly, the margins of the ice, especially in the marginal seas like the Bering, Okhotsk and Barents where most of our growth is currently taking place, are highly volatile.  They are far from the core cold (... or lack thereof) in the Arctic basin proper, building ice over warmer water, and can gain or lose thousands of KM2 (of extent) in a day on a turn of the wind.

In short: that it isn't possible to predict melt season from what we see now, has been demonstrated by the recent years. Looking at the physics of what cracks do to the ice also shows that they should help to increase ice volume.
I agree, it is impossible to precisely predict the melt season outcome from what we have now.

I'd give you qualified agreement on your second point - leads permit rapid growth of ice in exposed areas, up to the first meter or so - which will have a positive effect on volume.  I'm doubtful given current and recent past weather that growth of volume is as great as we could hope for.


How much such an increase (of volume - jd) can do in a climate which generally reduces ice growth and increases ice melt I can't guess. The complexity of these competing processes is what makes watching ice melt so fascinating for me.

Fascinating (and terrifying...) for me as well.

Regarding volume increase from leads - I'm pessimistic about the net effect of their contribution this year.  The heat loss that ice represents has been dwarfed by the massive imports of heat via moisture and direct sensible heat brought by the endless series of storms entering the basin.  Leads may freeze, as -20C air will do that just as well as -30C air.  What that warmer temperature won't do is thicken Ice.  Most of the ice across the basin won't reach much more than 2M thickness.  I think as a result we might get a zero sum outcome for volume increase over the entire season.  If we are lucky.
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jdallen

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Re: The 2015/2016 freezing season
« Reply #465 on: February 15, 2016, 08:55:53 PM »
More disturbances ahead according to GFS at 10mb. This is between February 23:rd and March 2:nd.

Click to animate.
Are we looking at a sudden warming event here?  It is impressive seeing that cold shoved completely out of the arctic.  I'm not sure I understand the implications of it however.
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Re: The 2015/2016 freezing season
« Reply #466 on: February 16, 2016, 06:49:29 AM »
I understand Neven that you want us to focus solely on freezing. As I see it especially this season in order to understand what is going on with the freezing we have to acknowledge 3 very important players that are fairly new.
1) The cold blob south of Greenland along with its friendly neighbour, the heating up southern portion of the slowing Gulf Stream which is throwing up one major warm wet storm after another into the Arctic.
2) Although weaker now, is still a very major player and that is the Blob south of Alaska.
3) A slowing meandering Jet Stream that is setting up RRR-TTT's that are proving to be far more stable and stronger then at first thought. It also seems to be the traffic controller sending everything into the Arctic or as what has happened in the near past keeping the heat out of the Arctic in the summer time.
All of these seemingly are overwhelming the NH impact of one of the strongest El Ninos ever seen.
The three players are there because of AGW. I think it is therefore a valid point of discussion (maybe in another post) to discuss these players and their impacts, because IMO they are the story as to why we are having the lowest amount of ice ever recorded this season. Leaving them off the topic will mean we can not understand what is happening this year and we certainly will fail to understand future freezings.
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Sleepy

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Re: The 2015/2016 freezing season
« Reply #467 on: February 16, 2016, 10:10:03 AM »
More disturbances ahead according to GFS at 10mb. This is between February 23:rd and March 2:nd.

Click to animate.
Are we looking at a sudden warming event here?  It is impressive seeing that cold shoved completely out of the arctic.  I'm not sure I understand the implications of it however.

Yes, if it materializes. I think it will, maybe not a large event if one thinks in the way of a non-linear response of El Nino, like the one I quoted here:
http://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,1454.msg70055.html#msg70055
Adding the forecast for March 3:rd.

Vertical heat transport is one thing I've noticed some meteorologists seem to forget, but who am I to critizise? It should at least provide the signature of AGW. In a warming world the temperature contrasts should increase, roughly below that altitude, warmer below and colder above. Right now during the warmest months ever, the Stratosphere has been really cold. Pic attached.

2012 will soon be forgotten. :(

Edit, temperature and pressure follows. The pressure up there is low and when warm air get's up there it cools as it expands. Not only by loosing pressure (temperature) but it also takes energy to move the surrounding air. Cool air that goes down does the opposite.
« Last Edit: February 16, 2016, 10:25:42 AM by Sleepy »

Pmt111500

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Re: The 2015/2016 freezing season
« Reply #468 on: February 16, 2016, 03:56:33 PM »
Yea plenty of agw threads elsewhere with massive amounts of litterature ref's out there. Or maybe start a new thread alltogether?

On the role of the cracks, they'd likely add to the ice thickness at some point of time, if the currents/winds that generated the cracks in the first place reverse. They're likely a result of stacking/export of ice elsewhere in the pack. So pretty normal stuff now that most of the multi-year ice is out. This could in some cases unstack and fill the cracks as they form. The overall thickness of PIOMAS is though a worry as is the extent and area... Doesn't leave much to not be worried about, yes...
« Last Edit: February 16, 2016, 04:29:45 PM by Pmt111500 »

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Re: The 2015/2016 freezing season
« Reply #469 on: February 16, 2016, 06:23:12 PM »
One of the concerns 'crackopalypse had me mull was 'slabbing' of FY ice over other first year ice?

 In 2012 we saw over 4m thickness of ice, off N. Greenland, blink out over Aug and , to me, the thing making this feat possible was that all that thickness was salty FY ice all stacked up?

So as we enter the last phase of winter I think we ought to be mindful of this type of 'thickening' as opposed to the 'old type' of thickened ice?
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Pmt111500

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Re: The 2015/2016 freezing season
« Reply #470 on: February 16, 2016, 06:45:56 PM »
One of the concerns 'crackopalypse had me mull was 'slabbing' of FY ice over other first year ice?


That would be my guess, or cracking and turning side ways due tides, how the fast ice starts to grow. We don't have tides in the Baltic, at least proper ones so never seen this happen on sea but only in narrow channels. First year ice slabs though rarrly do get over each other even here, i don't know the mechanism. Possibly it's totally random. Maybe this is tide-related stuff in the Arctic

 
Quote
In 2012 we saw over 4m thickness of ice, off N. Greenland, blink out over Aug and , to me, the thing making this feat possible was that all that thickness was salty FY ice all stacked up?

Possibly trying to stick fast ice where it cannot anymore form.

Quote
So as we enter the last phase of winter I think we ought to be mindful of this type of 'thickening' as opposed to the 'old type' of thickened ice?


Likely they're not too different from each other. Can't say for sure though.

Just my guesses, no ref's for any of that.

Sleepy

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Re: The 2015/2016 freezing season
« Reply #471 on: February 16, 2016, 07:13:46 PM »
Maybe it will be a major SSW after all. Note what happens in the last frames, it's reversing direction.

Click to animate.

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Re: The 2015/2016 freezing season
« Reply #472 on: February 16, 2016, 07:58:47 PM »
Maybe it will be a major SSW after all.
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Re: The 2015/2016 freezing season
« Reply #473 on: February 16, 2016, 08:21:56 PM »
I have been calculating how much max growth is needed to ensure a first second and third place, based on the the average day of maximum (around March 8 ).

For extent the amount has been diminishing, which implies that predicting a lowest maximum is not really possible (but may happen anyway).

On the other hand, for area, the amount has been increasing a bit, currently ~18k of daily growth til March 8 is needed to come in as second, and 23k for passing second place.

Based on numerology, I therefore conclude that it is likely that this year ends up in first or second place for area.

If anybody is interested in the figures I can post them.
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Re: The 2015/2016 freezing season
« Reply #474 on: February 16, 2016, 11:44:58 PM »
If anybody is interested in the figures I can post them.

Maybe in the 2016 sea ice area and extent data thread? Not that it's entirely off-topic here, as it concerns the max.

As for the cracking event: Diablobanquisa put up a blog post today, in Spanish. He posts this AVHHR image from Environment Canada:



I've been looking at the other side of the Arctic, and noticed Baffin and Kara both going down:



So, I had a look at the Kara region and noticed the ice retreating south of Novaya Zemlya, reminiscent of 2011 and 2012:



Expect more of that in the coming week, if I'm interpreting the forecast right. As for Baffin, I don't think much will change there, but on the other hand things might heat up there too. With the anomalously high temps over Bering staying in place, things are really starting to shape up towards a (early, record low?) max.
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meddoc

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Re: The 2015/2016 freezing season
« Reply #475 on: February 17, 2016, 11:05:01 AM »
By analyzing air temperature anomalies (2m) surface winds and sea surface temperatures- I guess this spot northeast of Svalbard has been spewing up substantial amounts of methane- the last week or so:

http://postimg.org/gallery/3dqidj8km/

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Re: The 2015/2016 freezing season
« Reply #476 on: February 17, 2016, 01:15:57 PM »
A "visual" image of the Beaufort Sea from February 15th:

http://GreatWhiteCon.info/resources/arctic-sea-ice-images/winter-2015-16-images/#Beaufort

Click through to Worldview and have a good look around. Then check out the Barrow radar
« Last Edit: February 17, 2016, 01:55:43 PM by Jim Hunt »
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Re: The 2015/2016 freezing season
« Reply #477 on: February 17, 2016, 05:07:13 PM »
By analyzing air temperature anomalies (2m) surface winds and sea surface temperatures- I guess this spot northeast of Svalbard has been spewing up substantial amounts of methane- the last week or so:

http://postimg.org/gallery/3dqidj8km/
No anomalous methane required or present in that heat.  It's all warm, moist air imported by the storms streaming north, boosted by the shockingly hot sea surface temperatures of the Barents.  Large extents of the Barents within a couple hundred KM2 of the ice edge are 4-8C+ degrees warmer than the baseline average.

Those still aren't temps I'd want to take a bath in, but are warm enough to tear 15CM/day or more off of any ice that strays there. That's helping prevent the air from chilling out and losing its energy before it reaches the CAB proper.
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Re: The 2015/2016 freezing season
« Reply #478 on: February 17, 2016, 05:14:18 PM »
A "visual" image of the Beaufort Sea from February 15th:
<snippage>
Click through to Worldview and have a good look around. Then check out the Barrow radar
Wow, just wow, Jim.  Open water and sunshine, and we haven't even hit Feb. 20th.  Still probably under a KWH/day/M2, but more than it should be picking up.
« Last Edit: February 17, 2016, 05:32:42 PM by jdallen »
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Re: The 2015/2016 freezing season
« Reply #479 on: February 17, 2016, 10:18:25 PM »
Wow...


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Re: The 2015/2016 freezing season
« Reply #480 on: February 18, 2016, 02:43:54 AM »
Wow...



Yes, not a textbook sample of Warm Arctic/Cold Continents (WA/CC or just WACC for short) but pretty close to it.

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Re: The 2015/2016 freezing season
« Reply #481 on: February 18, 2016, 06:12:14 AM »
Wow...

...

Yes, not a textbook sample of Warm Arctic/Cold Continents (WA/CC or just WACC for short) but pretty close to it.
<headshake>  IJIS is down 50,000 KM2, and the GFS forecast just gets worse.

Mad minmax here we come...
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Re: The 2015/2016 freezing season
« Reply #482 on: February 18, 2016, 07:03:44 AM »
Wow...



Yes, not a textbook sample of Warm Arctic/Cold Continents (WA/CC or just WACC for short) but pretty close to it.

Exactly my thoughts when I saw this.

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Re: The 2015/2016 freezing season
« Reply #483 on: February 18, 2016, 07:58:33 AM »
It might be worse.
Here's a follow up to the animation in Reply #471 but now with the entire forecast animated from February 18:th to March 5:th from GFS.
Click to animate.

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Re: The 2015/2016 freezing season
« Reply #484 on: February 18, 2016, 08:34:48 AM »
Wow...

...

Yes, not a textbook sample of Warm Arctic/Cold Continents (WA/CC or just WACC for short) but pretty close to it.
<headshake>  IJIS is down 50,000 KM2, and the GFS forecast just gets worse.

Mad minmax here we come...

I'm certainly no expert but just eyeballing Cryosphere Today SIA graph puts things into perspective - can the Arctic really generate enough ice to overcome the heat before a full sunlit pole this year? I don't think so... a new minmax and possibly a new trend line for SIA. I know there are weeks to go, but seriously with the forecast and current situation I can't see it getting the boost it needs.

http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/arctic.sea.ice.interactive.html

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Re: The 2015/2016 freezing season
« Reply #485 on: February 18, 2016, 08:42:12 AM »
yikes, have I only posted 8 ( now 9 ) times here? Neven, the term Master Lurker is awesome :) and so true!

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Re: The 2015/2016 freezing season
« Reply #486 on: February 18, 2016, 08:54:56 AM »
yikes, have I only posted 8 ( now 9 ) times here? Neven, the term Master Lurker is awesome :) and so true!

Someone came up with the term (forgot who) and I thought it was funny, so I changed the name for that member class. Have to invent names for the other classes as well some time.  ;)


<headshake>  IJIS is down 50,000 KM2, and the GFS forecast just gets worse.

Mad minmax here we come...

I'm glad JAXA managed to supersede the previous peak, but this might be attempt number 2. On the other hand, I'm seeing some cold temps being forecast for the Bering Sea.
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Re: The 2015/2016 freezing season
« Reply #487 on: February 18, 2016, 08:57:49 AM »
jdallen:

No anomalous methane required or present in that heat.  It's all warm, moist air imported by the storms streaming north, boosted by the shockingly hot sea surface temperatures of the Barents.  Large extents of the Barents within a couple hundred KM2 of the ice edge are 4-8C+ degrees warmer than the baseline average.

Those still aren't temps I'd want to take a bath in, but are warm enough to tear 15CM/day or more off of any ice that strays there. That's helping prevent the air from chilling out and losing its energy before it reaches the CAB proper.


And I'd say + 13 C (from the already warmer than normal 1950- 81 baseline) Arctic, isn't only due to heat carried from storms. There have to be other feedbacks kicking in- big time.

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Re: The 2015/2016 freezing season
« Reply #488 on: February 18, 2016, 11:11:58 AM »
Animation of the forecast between the 17:th and the 27:th of the height-latitude section from 1000 hPa to 1 hPa (0°N - 90°N) of the heat flux (K m/s) from ECMWF, plot by FU-Berlin.
Click to animate.

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Re: The 2015/2016 freezing season
« Reply #489 on: February 18, 2016, 04:48:38 PM »
yikes, have I only posted 8 ( now 9 ) times here? Neven, the term Master Lurker is awesome :) and so true!

Someone came up with the term (forgot who) and I thought it was funny, so I changed the name for that member class. Have to invent names for the other classes as well some time.  ;)


<headshake>  IJIS is down 50,000 KM2, and the GFS forecast just gets worse.

Mad minmax here we come...

I'm glad JAXA managed to supersede the previous peak, but this might be attempt number 2. On the other hand, I'm seeing some cold temps being forecast for the Bering Sea.
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Re: The 2015/2016 freezing season
« Reply #490 on: February 18, 2016, 05:44:55 PM »
Have to invent names for the other classes as well some time.  ;)

How about creating a "10K Club" some time.
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Re: The 2015/2016 freezing season
« Reply #491 on: February 18, 2016, 06:49:11 PM »
Have to invent names for the other classes as well some time.  ;)

How about creating a "10K Club" some time.

I'll consider it once you have posted another 3000 comments.  ;)

PS For those of you not keeping an eye on the ASIB, the NSIDC Global SIE record minimum was broken today.
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Re: The 2015/2016 freezing season
« Reply #492 on: February 18, 2016, 08:06:44 PM »
Neven beat me to the announcement, but here's the graph to prove the point:

http://GreatWhiteCon.info/2016/02/global-sea-ice-extent-at-lowest-ever-level/

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Re: The 2015/2016 freezing season
« Reply #493 on: February 19, 2016, 01:11:32 AM »
I've got a blog post full of goodies over on the ASIB discussing all the goings-on in the Arctic right now: An exceptional exception
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Re: The 2015/2016 freezing season
« Reply #494 on: February 19, 2016, 08:22:41 AM »
What  is quite stunning about the very low extent this year is the fact that the Pacific Ice extent  is about 400K km^2 greater than last year.

https://sites.google.com/site/arctischepinguin/home/amsr2/grf/amsr2-extent-regional.png

Although  we are currently  about 225K Km^2 below the record low for this date the Atlantic side is about  600K km^2 below last year. When the melt starts in earnest that is a lot of area ready  to  be heated up. And a lot of ice that  doesn't have to be melted around the Arctic basin.
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Re: The 2015/2016 freezing season
« Reply #495 on: February 19, 2016, 12:49:05 PM »
Quote
What  is quite stunning about the very low extent this year is the fact that the Pacific Ice extent  is about 400K km^2 greater than last year.

The "attack" this year has clearly been from the Atlantic side.  From the northern shores of Greenland....across the Arctic to the northwestern shores of Russia....that has been the "demarcation line" for the last month or two where warm temps have been....and continues.

I expect to see that continue for the rest of this year.  This year there will many more weeks/months of significant melting INSIDE OF SVALBARD.  This is the year when the CAB gets its first SERIOUS attack from the warming temps EARLIER in the melt season.

I guess I am somewhat surprised.....that so many people on this site are surprised....by what is happening this year.  It has been clear for a long time, what the direction is.  It shouldn't come as a surprise when it actually happens.

And the process will only speed up in coming years......with earlier and earlier ice melt....and later and later ice freeze.

It may take another 5 years or so to get a first "pretty much total" ice melt....but this year MOST of ice with the exception of ice north of the Canadian Archipelago and a smattering of ice in the CAB will be pretty much gone.  THAT isn't surprising to me.  It IS disappointing to me...but not surprising.

And I would remind those....especially those in the US.....that we need people in "political office" who (a) have seen this coming and have been willing to speak out about it, and (b) have been on record TO DO SOMETHING ABOUT IT.

In the US....the Republican party has apparently been bought off by fossil fuel companies.  Donald Trump thinks its a "hoax"......Ted Cruz thinks there hasn't been any significant warming in 18 year......Marco Rubio doesn't think it is anything to worry about or do anything about.  So yes....Donald Trump needs to be called an idiotic fool along with Ted Cruz and Marco Rubio and others. 

SO....all YOU FOLKS (me included) have an obligation to PUSH people to act.  To push FACTS in front of their faces.....and to keep PUSHING for change.  The temps are only going to keep pushing higher...





 

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Re: The 2015/2016 freezing season
« Reply #496 on: February 19, 2016, 02:20:49 PM »
I'm really baffled, that You guys cannot see how geopolitics fits into this...

Just a "small" hint:

http://thebulletin.org/

“In 2015, unchecked climate change, global nuclear weapons modernizations, and outsized nuclear weapons arsenals pose extraordinary and undeniable threats to the continued existence of humanity, and world leaders have failed to act with the speed or on the scale required to protect citizens from potential catastrophe. These failures of political leadership endanger every person on Earth.”

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Re: The 2015/2016 freezing season
« Reply #497 on: February 19, 2016, 03:21:25 PM »
I'm really baffled, that You guys cannot see how geopolitics fits into this...

Just a "small" hint:

http://thebulletin.org/

“In 2015, unchecked climate change, global nuclear weapons modernizations, and outsized nuclear weapons arsenals pose extraordinary and undeniable threats to the continued existence of humanity, and world leaders have failed to act with the speed or on the scale required to protect citizens from potential catastrophe. These failures of political leadership endanger every person on Earth.”

Many of us are aware of many things. But that doesn't mean these things belong in the 2015/2016 freezing season thread.

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Re: The 2015/2016 freezing season
« Reply #498 on: February 19, 2016, 04:05:58 PM »
I'm really baffled, that You guys cannot see how geopolitics fits into this...

Just a "small" hint:

http://thebulletin.org/

“In 2015, unchecked climate change, global nuclear weapons modernizations, and outsized nuclear weapons arsenals pose extraordinary and undeniable threats to the continued existence of humanity, and world leaders have failed to act with the speed or on the scale required to protect citizens from potential catastrophe. These failures of political leadership endanger every person on Earth.”

I just met with a guy who wanted to build a nuclear cannon.

Oh, now I see that we actually do not have a thread for nuclear things. There's only some fusion discussion but almost nothing of fissile elements. This should likely be in policy and solutions section. I thinl your message would be just fine opening the discussion on nuclear power as a solution for the potential energy shortage if the renewables take too long to implement. There really should be a thread for this too, it is possible that many nations use their plutonium stocks and other radioactive stuff to produce energy to their needs. The new designs of reactors are pretty impressive. I know nukes can be used to produce a nuclear winter, to tie this at least somewhat to the topic, but I'm rather much hoping you aren't proposing to generate one to help arctic feeeze properly this winter. People might die in such an experiment.

But ok, there might be a reason for a nuclear energy thread in the policy section, at least some in this country are relying on that stuff.

« Last Edit: February 19, 2016, 04:28:27 PM by Pmt111500 »

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Re: The 2015/2016 freezing season
« Reply #499 on: February 19, 2016, 04:33:26 PM »
Reality is merely an illusion, albeit a very persistent one - Albert Einstein