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Author Topic: The 2015/2016 freezing season  (Read 345789 times)

Jim Hunt

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Re: The 2015/2016 freezing season
« Reply #600 on: February 29, 2016, 05:54:15 PM »
Cryosphere shows a blow torch of 80% to 60% concentration leading to within a couple of hundred km of the north pole today.

The Atlantic side is in dire straights.

See also my latest article on such matters:

http://GreatWhiteCon.info/2016/02/the-2016-arctic-winter-sea-ice-puzzle/

which includes this video (if it plays!)



Quote
Those dark areas between Svalbard and the North Pole are suddenly starting to look as though they represent reality rather than a mere "artifact", although perhaps they are merely transient evidence of yet another Arctic "heat wave"?


Reality is merely an illusion, albeit a very persistent one - Albert Einstein

NeilT

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Re: The 2015/2016 freezing season
« Reply #601 on: February 29, 2016, 07:01:05 PM »
At the risk of staying off topic, but hopefully helpful.  I use IE with W10.  I've set it as the primary browser and hidden Edge.  I use FF for most other stuff...
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Blizzard_of_Oz

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Re: The 2015/2016 freezing season
« Reply #602 on: February 29, 2016, 11:59:55 PM »
Which reveals that data-free inferred temperatures at 2 m are fairly worthless whereas those at 925 hPa are probably better but not necessarily optimal nor supported by much actual measurement
Compare the current +80N T2M from ECMWF and from the NOAA CFSv2. These are two completely independent systems using different model physics and assimilation methods yet they produce remarkably similar (though not perfect) results. "Worthless" depends on your perspective and intended use of the data. My guess is that it has been substantially warmer than normal in the Arctic. Summer results are a different case.


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The map below shows the region over which the mean 925 hPa Tair is computed. The 00z, 06z 12z and 18z [time points at six hour intervals] analysis fields  [spreadsheet columns] are used for making the daily average temperature
In NWP an analysis field is one in which the background/forecast model variable (a best guess) and the observations are combined to give an optimal representation of the state of the system i.e. the result of assimilation. For global NWP, an analysis field is typically calculated 4 times a day, with the 00z and 12z usually having a greater number of observations. The analysis fields (e.g. surface pressure) of model state variables form part of the initial conditions of a model forecast. For times outside the analysis, results for the variables subject to analysis are effectively forecast values from the model. Variables not subject to analysis (e.g. solar radiation at the surface or T2M in CFS) are always forecast fields.


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925hPa temperature .... should be more influenced [improved] by data assimilation [what data?]. 
As already mentioned ... Numerous satellite soundings (HIRS, MSU, TOVS etc.) are used to solve an inverse problem and provide information about the temperature and humidity of the atmosphere. Radiosondes provide information from coastal locations. Scatterometers can inform about winds (over open water). Aircraft taking a polar route provide info. Surface pressure measurements give information about the mass of the atmosphere etc. In the CFSv2 all this data is put into a 3-D variational assimilation system, meaning that a measurement at one location (and/or level in the atmosphere) will influence other locations/levels. This influence happens at the time of assimilation (through spatial covariance and model re-balancing) as well as through the spatial and temporal propagation of perturbations in the atmosphere.


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The +80N 2 m Air Temperature is a diagniosed [sic] rather than a prognositc variable [sic] [intended meaning: calculated retrospectively from models and meagre observations]
In terms of modeling, a diagnostic variable is one that can be computed from the current set of states and fluxes (e.g. T2M, which is also a special case as it is generally not used by any other part of the model - it is essentially a post-processing output). A prognostic variable is one that (in the case of NWP) is calculated by integrating an equation forward in time - for example, you iteratively solve the surface energy balance to prognose the surface radiating temperature. The dynamics & thermodynamics of the atmosphere are solved (prognosed) on a grid; the 2m level is not one of these grid levels. Once you have prognosed the temp, humidity & winds of the main atmosphere, and solved the surface energy balance, you can then diagnose the T2M. Prognostic and diagnostic variables may or may not be analyzed fields (i.e. model + obs merged).


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T2M analysis at ECMWF is an optimal interpolation [an older method for choosing weights to minimize the mean square error, a supposed minimum variance estimator]
ECMWF T2M assimilation is Optimal Interpolation (OI), but the main atmosphere model at ECMWF uses a full 4-D Variational method, meaning that it not only takes into account of the horizontal and vertical state of the atmosphere, but also looks at the trajectory of the model in time (compared to the temporal trajectory of observations). This is currently the most advanced system in the world.
You need to choose the appropriate tool for the job - sometimes a plain old screwdriver is just as (or more) effective as the latest power drill/driver.

Hope that clears up a few things ... now, back to your regularly scheduled programming

Magma.

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Re: The 2015/2016 freezing season
« Reply #603 on: March 01, 2016, 06:02:34 PM »
The 2015-2016 winter has been truly stunning in terms of high latitude temperatures, with a reanalysis-calculated surface freezing anomaly currently 750 degree-days below (warmer than) the 1980-2010 median north of 80°N. This is on the order of 4 standard deviations from the mean.

http://cires1.colorado.edu/~aslater/ARCTIC_TAIR/index_80_t2m.html

Lord M Vader

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Re: The 2015/2016 freezing season
« Reply #604 on: March 01, 2016, 07:52:20 PM »
Speaking about stunning, the temperature anomaly according to NASAs values reveals that the winter anomaly should be about 1.2 to 1.4oC above "pre-industrial". Worth to think about!

werther

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Re: The 2015/2016 freezing season
« Reply #605 on: March 01, 2016, 09:17:16 PM »
As the sun is slowly revealing the Arctic, some effects illustrating this winters’ specifics become clear:



This is part of today’s enhanced tile r04c05, the far North of Russia. Ice in the Vilkitsky Strait between Taymir Peninsula and Severnaya Zemlya looks thin and broken. Could be a sign of rapid melt out early this season.

Last year a firm stretch of landfast ice held out into July blocking the Strait.

NeilT

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Re: The 2015/2016 freezing season
« Reply #606 on: March 02, 2016, 01:20:35 AM »
Also looking at the Barrow ice mass balance, the landfast ice is still only just over 0.5m  Half or less than half of normal.  Which does not bode well for the breakup season.
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Shared Humanity

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Re: The 2015/2016 freezing season
« Reply #607 on: March 02, 2016, 01:37:43 AM »
As the sun is slowly revealing the Arctic, some effects illustrating this winters’ specifics become clear:



This is part of today’s enhanced tile r04c05, the far North of Russia. Ice in the Vilkitsky Strait between Taymir Peninsula and Severnaya Zemlya looks thin and broken. Could be a sign of rapid melt out early this season.

Last year a firm stretch of landfast ice held out into July blocking the Strait.

Add this to the current state of the Kara and we might see a very early opening for the Russian passage through the Arctic. What does the Laptev and ESS look like?

jdallen

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Re: The 2015/2016 freezing season
« Reply #608 on: March 02, 2016, 07:45:02 AM »

Add this to the current state of the Kara and we might see a very early opening for the Russian passage through the Arctic. What does the Laptev and ESS look like?
Here you go. Southern Laptev

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jdallen

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Re: The 2015/2016 freezing season
« Reply #609 on: March 02, 2016, 08:04:37 AM »
Additional images:

For all of how much cold as been driven south across them recently, Neither the Bering nor Okhotsk appear to be in particularly robust shape.
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jdallen

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Re: The 2015/2016 freezing season
« Reply #610 on: March 02, 2016, 08:09:41 AM »
Ooo!  Check this out:  NorthWest Passage with 3-6-7 bands to bring out contrast.

That ice didn't get particularly strong, it seems.
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Jim Hunt

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Re: The 2015/2016 freezing season
« Reply #611 on: March 02, 2016, 12:04:29 PM »
Looks like YouTube have changed something at their end that prevents videos embedding here? Can the webmaster do anything about that?

Meanwhile "Those dark areas between Svalbard and the North Pole" still seem to be there, according to Bremen at least:
Reality is merely an illusion, albeit a very persistent one - Albert Einstein

Adam Ash

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Re: The 2015/2016 freezing season
« Reply #612 on: March 02, 2016, 01:38:02 PM »
https://www.tvnz.co.nz/one-news/world/stunning-time-lapse-shows-sea-ice-breaking-out-at-scott-base

Interesting vid of the ice breaking up at McMurdo Sound recently.  Only happens about once every four years or so.

The speed with which the ice clears over such a huge area is amazing.  This may make for an interesting 'enhancement' to the global minimum.

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Re: The 2015/2016 freezing season
« Reply #613 on: March 02, 2016, 04:49:09 PM »
Looks like YouTube have changed something at their end that prevents videos embedding here? Can the webmaster do anything about that?

Meanwhile "Those dark areas between Svalbard and the North Pole" still seem to be there, according to Bremen at least:

The Atlantic side of the Arctic looks weak all of the way to the pole. Is this unusual for this late in the freeze season?

Comradez

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Re: The 2015/2016 freezing season
« Reply #614 on: March 02, 2016, 07:09:17 PM »
This spring is off to a hot start in the Northern Hemisphere.  Record-low snowcover and record-low great lakes ice cover are bound to help jumpstart northern-hemisphere snow and ice melt with below-average albedo.

http://www.glerl.noaa.gov/res/glcfs/compare_years/

Great Lakes ice concentration - March 1st
2016:  10.7%
2015:  78.6%
2014:  90.5%

Mean Lake Superior Whole Volume Temperature - March 1st
2016:  37.4 F
2015:  35.8 F
2014:  35.8 F

NH snow cover:


Here we go!

NeilT

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Re: The 2015/2016 freezing season
« Reply #615 on: March 03, 2016, 02:21:58 AM »
I thought the Great Lakes looked like 0% concentration for most of Feb with only a small growth at the end.
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jdallen

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Re: The 2015/2016 freezing season
« Reply #616 on: March 03, 2016, 06:53:53 AM »
Looks like YouTube have changed something at their end that prevents videos embedding here? Can the webmaster do anything about that?

Meanwhile "Those dark areas between Svalbard and the North Pole" still seem to be there, according to Bremen at least:

The Atlantic side of the Arctic looks weak all of the way to the pole. Is this unusual for this late in the freeze season?
IN a word.  Yup.

IJIS also is now down 60K in the last couple of days.

That is in spite of a significant drop in 80N average temps.

I think we are past the point that we will have increased volume and area in the arctic.   The freezing season may be over.
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Michael Hauber

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Re: The 2015/2016 freezing season
« Reply #617 on: March 03, 2016, 11:23:23 PM »
Atlantic sector continues to take a beating, but as bad as it has been in previous weeks, the current 7 day forecast conditions might not be bad enough for further losses.  Elsewhere conditions look about as good as you could expect for ice growth in the current climate and I suspect we'll see some growth in Barents and Baffin area.  In particular very cold temperatures that had mostly moved onto land in the Siberian sector are now mostly over the ocean again.  I suspect that although Beaufort and Atlantic sectors are going to be weak right from the start of the melt season the Siberian sector and central Arctic are about as solid as they could be with global temperatures where they currently are.
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Jim Hunt

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Re: The 2015/2016 freezing season
« Reply #618 on: March 04, 2016, 12:17:48 PM »
The latest edition of Arctic Sea Ice News is out:

http://GreatWhiteCon.info/2016/02/the-2016-arctic-winter-sea-ice-puzzle/#comment-213732

Quote
Persistent warmth has continued into February; air temperatures at the 925 hPa level were 6 to 8 degrees Celsius (11 to 14 degrees Fahrenheit) above the 1981 to 2010 average over the central Arctic Ocean near the pole.
Reality is merely an illusion, albeit a very persistent one - Albert Einstein

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Re: The 2015/2016 freezing season
« Reply #619 on: March 04, 2016, 12:54:06 PM »
Practitioners and realists will scoff at this, but perhaps we're seeing an authentic state change, right now. If so then we'll have to fill in the physics later, after we understand them.

Jim Hunt

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Re: The 2015/2016 freezing season
« Reply #620 on: March 04, 2016, 01:42:25 PM »
The first image from the recently launched Sentinel 3A satellite, of the CAB north of Svalbard:

http://GreatWhiteCon.info/resources/arctic-sea-ice-images/winter-2015-16-images/#CAB

Note that "The Sentinel 3 Synthetic Aperture Radar Altimeter is better than the CryoSat altimeter"
Reality is merely an illusion, albeit a very persistent one - Albert Einstein

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Re: The 2015/2016 freezing season
« Reply #621 on: March 04, 2016, 03:20:25 PM »
The latest edition of Arctic Sea Ice News is out:

http://GreatWhiteCon.info/2016/02/the-2016-arctic-winter-sea-ice-puzzle/#comment-213732

Quote
Persistent warmth has continued into February; air temperatures at the 925 hPa level were 6 to 8 degrees Celsius (11 to 14 degrees Fahrenheit) above the 1981 to 2010 average over the central Arctic Ocean near the pole.

Doesn't this chart suggest that the winter freeze is losing strength? We know that winter temp anomalies in the arctic are climbing. This cannot be good as a long term trend since we are simply setting the stage for the melt season every year.

jdallen

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Re: The 2015/2016 freezing season
« Reply #622 on: March 04, 2016, 05:59:32 PM »
The latest edition of Arctic Sea Ice News is out:

http://GreatWhiteCon.info/2016/02/the-2016-arctic-winter-sea-ice-puzzle/#comment-213732

Quote
Persistent warmth has continued into February; air temperatures at the 925 hPa level were 6 to 8 degrees Celsius (11 to 14 degrees Fahrenheit) above the 1981 to 2010 average over the central Arctic Ocean near the pole.

Doesn't this chart suggest that the winter freeze is losing strength? We know that winter temp anomalies in the arctic are climbing. This cannot be good as a long term trend since we are simply setting the stage for the melt season every year.
I agree, mostly.

Thinking about the Arctic, one of my favorite metaphors to contemplate is the compound pendulum.  It's chaotic enough with just two arms as shown below, but gets even more so when you add additional limbs.



Each change in forcing or feed back is effectively the system shortening or lengthening one of the arms.  I think the reduction in FDDs represented by this winters heat is shortening one of the arms of our arctic pendulum.  The effect will be to reduce the number of possible states the pendulum can have (e.g. - sea ice Maxima prior to the 80's are a rapidly receding memory that won't be seen again for millenia...).  It will also change the frequency and amplitude of the signal itself.

One of the most serious challenges I have in my discussions with people about climate change is helping them grasp this kind of concept - how what are really rather small changes in a system stack up to create very great ones, very quickly.

So back to topic - yes, the lack of export of heat out of the Arctic this winter is very alarming, and may in fact be a state change signal.  Interestingly, I don't think that state change is in the Arctic itself, but rather is in global heat circulation and the disintegration of discrete cellular circulation in the atmosphere (Hadley Cells, Ferrel Cells, Arctic Cells).  Long term, decreased ice will cause that particular signal to amplify, and perhaps add a new "limb" to our "pendulum".
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Neven

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Re: The 2015/2016 freezing season
« Reply #623 on: March 04, 2016, 06:15:38 PM »
General announcement:

I'm setting priorities to create more time, and so I'm canceling most of my thread notifications on the forum here (clicking through all those comments every day takes up too much time and everyone is behaving so well). If there's something wrong, mail me, or click the 'report to moderator' button.

End of announcement.
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Re: The 2015/2016 freezing season
« Reply #624 on: March 04, 2016, 06:43:51 PM »
Neven,

I think you are doing the right thing at the right moment. Spring is just around the corner and it is important to have fresh fruit and vegetables for your family, when the sh.. hits the fan. We will keep an eye open for you in the meantime.

Cheers P

Tor Bejnar

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Re: The 2015/2016 freezing season
« Reply #625 on: March 04, 2016, 07:41:25 PM »
Hail to our magician, Neven, who can "create more time"!  :D
May changes work well for you, too.
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Neven

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Re: The 2015/2016 freezing season
« Reply #626 on: March 04, 2016, 09:42:10 PM »
I want to try and focus on Arctic sea ice this year (and not on other AGW-related stuff), so of course, I will continue following - and be active on - this thread and the other ones related to Arctic sea ice.

I've already created at least 20 minutes today.  ;)
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DavidR

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Re: The 2015/2016 freezing season
« Reply #627 on: March 05, 2016, 05:31:06 AM »
According to the NOAA figures at:
http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/cgi-bin/data/timeseries/timeseries1.pl

February was the hottest February on record by almost 0.5 degC globally and 1.5 degC in the Arctic that is a massive jump considering the last  four months were considered to have big increases when they were 0.2 deg C higher than the previous hottest equivalent months.

This will also be the largest  anomaly  ever from the long term record.
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TenneyNaumer

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Re: The 2015/2016 freezing season
« Reply #628 on: March 05, 2016, 07:14:23 AM »
So back to topic - yes, the lack of export of heat out of the Arctic this winter is very alarming, and may in fact be a state change signal.  Interestingly, I don't think that state change is in the Arctic itself, but rather is in global heat circulation and the disintegration of discrete cellular circulation in the atmosphere (Hadley Cells, Ferrel Cells, Arctic Cells).  Long term, decreased ice will cause that particular signal to amplify, and perhaps add a new "limb" to our "pendulum".

I have been very interested in the changes in the atmospheric circulation in the NH, particularly since the end of 2010. 

I've sort of addicted to watching the animations of water vapor via:

http://www.ssec.wisc.edu/data/geo/index.php?satellite=west&channel=wv&coverage=fd&file=gif&imgoranim=8&anim_method=flash

and http://www.ssec.wisc.edu/data/geo/index.php?satellite=coms&channel=wv&coverage=fd&file=gif&imgoranim=8&anim_method=flash

There used to be 5 to 7 distinct "streams" heading from the Equator to the Pole, going from the southwest toward the northeast

There was a noticeable, albeit small, change in late 2010, that grew ever larger with the passage of time, until now you can easily see that there are only 3 main "streams" (very broad ones), and they flow toward the east, and much less toward the northeast.

You can observe this better here:

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/SAT_NHEM/animwjap.html

The circulation in the Southern Hemisphere has also begun to go off its "normal" rails, but since Antarctica is huge and can maintain its cold much better, the effect nowhere nearly as extreme as what is going on in the north.

jdallen, you are the first person I have seen mention this.  Surely there are some articles about it by now.

jdallen

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Re: The 2015/2016 freezing season
« Reply #629 on: March 05, 2016, 08:14:34 AM »
So back to topic - yes, the lack of export of heat out of the Arctic this winter is very alarming, and may in fact be a state change signal.  Interestingly, I don't think that state change is in the Arctic itself, but rather is in global heat circulation and the disintegration of discrete cellular circulation in the atmosphere (Hadley Cells, Ferrel Cells, Arctic Cells).  Long term, decreased ice will cause that particular signal to amplify, and perhaps add a new "limb" to our "pendulum".

I have been very interested in the changes in the atmospheric circulation in the NH, particularly since the end of 2010. 

I've sort of addicted to watching the animations of water vapor via:

http://www.ssec.wisc.edu/data/geo/index.php?satellite=west&channel=wv&coverage=fd&file=gif&imgoranim=8&anim_method=flash

and http://www.ssec.wisc.edu/data/geo/index.php?satellite=coms&channel=wv&coverage=fd&file=gif&imgoranim=8&anim_method=flash

There used to be 5 to 7 distinct "streams" heading from the Equator to the Pole, going from the southwest toward the northeast

There was a noticeable, albeit small, change in late 2010, that grew ever larger with the passage of time, until now you can easily see that there are only 3 main "streams" (very broad ones), and they flow toward the east, and much less toward the northeast.

You can observe this better here:

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/SAT_NHEM/animwjap.html

The circulation in the Southern Hemisphere has also begun to go off its "normal" rails, but since Antarctica is huge and can maintain its cold much better, the effect nowhere nearly as extreme as what is going on in the north.

jdallen, you are the first person I have seen mention this.  Surely there are some articles about it by now.
Oh, you evil person, you just gave me a new time vampire (your H2O animations). I can see why you like it.

My focus has been watching changes in temp at high latitudes mostly. Climate Reanalyzer is my best buddy for that.  I also stare endlessly at the pressure models as well, and occasionally watch the moisture streams.  That last is actually how I think the lions share of the heat is being carried into the Arctic.

I haven't been watching circulation as long as you have - pretty much just the last 3 years or so - but its enough to let me see a trend, and, reading older articles, get a sense of how things are changing and have changed.

As to why I'm the first you've seen mention it - I expect there's actually a lot more chatter about it elsewhere in the forums. Here I was just referencing it as to how it pertained to what the ice is doing.  Beyond that, I guess my awareness is an occupational hazard/side effect of my day job as a systems analyst.  I think about all kinds of crazy stuff all the time, so this is just more of the same, and a lot more interesting.

Collapsing streams makes sense, and I'd say two of the primary flows, perhaps *the* primary flows are those following the eastern continental margins in the Pacific and Atlantic.  They've been mainlining heat from the tropics all the way to the Arctic circle almost continuously for a year and a half or more.  What we see now really doesn't surprise me at all.

All in all, Wadhams may in fact turn out to be correct - we may see that "ice free" Arctic before 2020.  The weather certainly seems to be on his side so far.  It's definitely driving change faster than most people expected.  Dratted pendulums....  ;D
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Lord M Vader

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Re: The 2015/2016 freezing season
« Reply #630 on: March 05, 2016, 11:18:15 AM »
For those who don't have seen that Longyearbyen at Svalbard hasn't experienced below normal temps  since the end of December, I provide following lik that clearly shows this. It also shows that the closest station to the city, Svalbard Airport had their warmest day during the last 30 days this friday when the temp hit 2,9oC. http://www.yr.no/place/Norway/Svalbard/Longyearbyen/statistics.html

Espen reported this morning that the SIE dropped to 13,78 Mn km2. Although "colder" air will establish over the Arctic basin, I don't see how much more the SIE will be able to grow. As some people already have pointed out, northerly winds will dominate at the Pacific side which most likely will help extent numbers to grow. However, these northerly winds are doubleegged as they should make the compactness to decrease in tandem with "thicker" ice to be pushed to warmer waters where it will melt away.

Finally, it's quite interesting to see that the CFS v2/NOAA forecast is foreseeing a rather cool summer at the Russian side which may slow down the melting rate and I don't see 2016 to be a new record low year. Low, yeas, but not record low! http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/CFSv2/CFSv2_body.html

Best, LMV

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Re: The 2015/2016 freezing season
« Reply #631 on: March 05, 2016, 11:57:01 AM »
Nothern Europe, North Atlantic O, and North America would continue being cozy and warm around May to July though.

The predicted deviations over Barentz are about plus three std dev.

Lord M Vader

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Re: The 2015/2016 freezing season
« Reply #632 on: March 05, 2016, 12:11:19 PM »
Seaicesailor: it's more important to look at the June-August period when most melting occurrs. Which gives a little different picture (Courtesy NOAA):



//LMV

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Re: The 2015/2016 freezing season
« Reply #633 on: March 05, 2016, 02:10:46 PM »
Looking over the years and comparing melt and temps alone, there does not appear to be a consistent good correlation. On the other hand, much bigger influences are the early melt ponds and storms. Early melt ponds are helped out by early rises in temps. The storms tend to be important in that they can either keep ice pend in the Arctic and therefore not allow export or break apart the ice in a direction that allows export.
In this I believe a very important feature this year will be the cold blob south of Greenland and how hot the southern leg of the Gulf Stream gets. The greater the temp differential between those are, the more chance you will get of stable dipoles setting up, and in those positions, you could get a raft of nasty storms being spun high into the Arctic. If that occurs, no matter what happens on the Pacific side of the Arctic, the Atlantic side will be in shambles.
As we have seen most of this freezing season, those two spots came create a lot of storms and really mess with the ice.
Although temps in JJA do play a part of final melt, MJJ set the stage of fragility, in the end though it will be the wind and where it blows.
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lanevn

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Re: The 2015/2016 freezing season
« Reply #634 on: March 05, 2016, 10:08:17 PM »
Seaicesailor: it's more important to look at the June-August period when most melting occurrs. Which gives a little different picture (Courtesy NOAA):



//LMV

Not enough for record low

jdallen

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Re: The 2015/2016 freezing season
« Reply #635 on: March 05, 2016, 11:33:20 PM »
<snippage>
Although temps in JJA do play a part of final melt, MJJ set the stage of fragility, in the end though it will be the wind and where it blows.
I think you put your finger on it here, LRC.

We have fragile ice, more fragile than any previous year  - 370K less SIA than 2015, impending well above normal temperatures, and open water at very high latitude with increasing insolation.

The temperatures now through early June won't determine the final outcome, but they will *definitely* set the table.
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seaicesailor

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Re: The 2015/2016 freezing season
« Reply #636 on: March 05, 2016, 11:51:18 PM »
Seaicesailor: it's more important to look at the June-August period when most melting occurrs. Which gives a little different picture (Courtesy NOAA):




//LMV

The main difference I see is zero anomalies in the Arctic Ocean and reduced anomalies in adjacent lands because temperatures are anchored to about zero, due to melting during those months.
I'd guess temperature departures in May and June should affect the melting of land snow cover and ice surface as LRC says. The model that you brought to attention in fact predicts Siberia negative anomalies.(delayed melting? Very uncertain)

TenneyNaumer

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Re: The 2015/2016 freezing season
« Reply #637 on: March 06, 2016, 06:07:46 AM »
Sure, heat heads toward the Arctic directly from the Equator via the water vapor streams.

In 2006, the year after Katrina, there were many hurricanes in the Atlantic and typhoons in the Pacific.  However, very few were land-falling.  Most ran into the water vapor streams along the east coast of Asia and the east coast of North America and were sucked up and most of their energy went directly to the Arctic via the Bering Strait and the North Atlantic.  It seemed to me that the big melt in 2007 was partly the result of this "priming."

Interestingly, we've had some early rapid melting (usually in May) for the past few years.  Note that the Arctic Oscillation Index has been positive at these times.  Then, when the Index goes negative, the water vapor is deflected away from the Arctic in the North Atlantic, and the melt lessens or the ice may even grow. 

You can see that right now:

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/SAT_NHEM/animwjap.html

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/ao_index.html

LRC1962

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Re: The 2015/2016 freezing season
« Reply #638 on: March 06, 2016, 01:51:45 PM »
Looking at nullschool over the next 4 days, temps, water, wind power .... on the Atlantic side it appears to be well set up for a lot of melt and possibly be a big push in ice movement towards the Bering. Also in the Bering itself there seems to be heavy winds at low levels pushing out into the NP. Looking at air temps and SSTA, what ice is exported there will not stick around long to increase extent much beyond what it is now outside the Bering.
Conclusion Compaction on the Pacific side with little more increase in extent. On the Atlantic side big loses possibly. That is over the next 5 days or so.
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Lord M Vader

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Re: The 2015/2016 freezing season
« Reply #640 on: March 07, 2016, 06:28:19 PM »
Is there anyone who knows whether it's normal to see an opening of Nares Strait in the beginning of March?!  ??? Todays map from Bremen shows a small area breaking up there.

//LMV

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Re: The 2015/2016 freezing season
« Reply #641 on: March 07, 2016, 06:54:04 PM »
Bremen is far too low resolution to make that call.

No evidence of a breakup on yesterday's MODIS data (which would have been collected around the same time as the Bremen data).
http://go.nasa.gov/1R3mmOw

Tor Bejnar

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Re: The 2015/2016 freezing season
« Reply #642 on: March 07, 2016, 07:15:44 PM »
In addition, the DMI released Sentinel images of the Kane Basin and Lincoln Sea show no evidence of changes.  A couple of early-forming polynyas in or near the Kane Basin have not opened yet (but don't they open in May or June each year?).  On one of the ASI threads, someone suggested a few days ago that strong winds and high tides could possibly affect Nares Strait this week.  (I'm not expecting anything.)
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Re: The 2015/2016 freezing season
« Reply #644 on: March 07, 2016, 07:38:37 PM »
I'm not sure what you are referring to. The arch in Kane Basin doesn't show any sign of failure. If the wind is strong to the south maybe there will be a (temporary?) opening south of the arch, I don't think this should be rare, though I'm hardly the expert on this or anything else ice-related.

Tor Bejnar

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Re: The 2015/2016 freezing season
« Reply #645 on: March 07, 2016, 07:43:49 PM »
The opening I see in the image you shared stretches from near the southern end of Kane Basin into the north end of Baffin Bay (south of the south end of Nares Strait).  It has remained open all winter.  [edit:  yeah - see Neven's post (next) - that's what it's called:  North Water Polynya]
« Last Edit: March 07, 2016, 08:21:55 PM by Tor Bejnar »
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Neven

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Re: The 2015/2016 freezing season
« Reply #646 on: March 07, 2016, 08:14:45 PM »
Isn't what you're seeing simply the North Water Polynya?
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Lord M Vader

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Re: The 2015/2016 freezing season
« Reply #647 on: March 07, 2016, 08:31:04 PM »
Well, I think that is correct Neven :) However, the polynya did more or less froze over completely by February 19-21 but the polyny as since then widened.

Good to see that this was nothing unusual :) These days, one may expect everything in the Arctic basin  ;D

Btw, by tomorrow, you may circumnavigate around Svalbard...  8) Just remember it isn't T-shirt weather  ;)

Finally, quite a big drop in the Sea of Okhotsk the last few days. Are we supposed to see any more ice growth there during the next few weeks or has the "melt season" begun there?

//LMV

jdallen

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Re: The 2015/2016 freezing season
« Reply #648 on: March 07, 2016, 09:39:26 PM »
Finally, quite a big drop in the Sea of Okhotsk the last few days. Are we supposed to see any more ice growth there during the next few weeks or has the "melt season" begun there?

//LMV
Doubtful serious melt will start in either the Bering or Okhotsk until after the equinox; probably well after.

I think the changes we are seeing on the Atlantic side are wind/drift driven and not melt, high SST's not withstanding.  The heat we've seen at this point is still slowing ice growth rather than attacking the ice.  Again, I don't think we'll see melt related reductions on the Atlantic side until after the Equinox.
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Re: The 2015/2016 freezing season
« Reply #649 on: March 08, 2016, 12:00:02 AM »
The maps that Wipneus have put in have a resolution at 3.125 km and the latest picture clearly shows a small but still very visible opening in Nares Strait.

The North Water Polynya has been open all winter. YouTube videos don't seem to play on here anymore, but click through to watch this:

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