Poll: Nares Strait Freeze Over in (early) 2022

[Tor Bejnar]

Rules (edited, per posts just below):
1) An ice bridge (arch) must form in or near Kane Basin and hold for at least two days to 'count', before July 1, 2022 (and during 2022).
2) A 'stable' bridge forming from Hall Basin to the southern Lincoln Sea that lasts a week will also count.

You may change your vote, but the results will not show until the poll closes ~March 2nd (5 days from this post's date)

Historical info:

Nares Strait Ice Bridge Dates
compiled from [arch forming dates] to [breaking dates]

"Winter" arch formation  to  "Spring" break up

2020-21 - December 5, 2020  to  July 2, 2021
2019-20 - December 17, 2019  to July 2, 2020
2018-19 - No arch
2017-18 - March 1, 2018  to  June 30, 2018
2016-17 - No arch (in the strait proper)*. Northern arch broke about June 30, 2017
2015-16 - December 6, 2015  to  June 30, 2016
2014-15 - February 13, 2015  to  July 5, 2015
2013-14 - January 5, 2014 (northern arch started - southern just after)  to  June 20, 2014
2012-13 - November 8, 2012  to  July 10, 2013
2011-12 - December 6, 2011  to  June 30, 2012
2010-11 - January 29, 2011  to  July 5, 2011
2009-10 - No arch formed(?)*  broke July 10, 2010
2008-09 - arch at extreme north end of channel - about March 10, 2009  to  June 30, 2009
2007-08 - April 1, 2008  to  June 10, 2008
2006-07 - No arch

Some clarity could be added to the 2009-10 and 2016-17 history. [* - edit: see next post]  Are pre-2007 dates known?

Note that the latest aches that formed formed on or about March 1 and April 1.

If you live in Ukraine, "It doesn't matter" would be an appropriate vote. 
Comments about Nares Strait closing or not "mattering" (for non-political reasons) would be appropriate.

[oren]

Two days for Kane Basin is not enough IMHO, I think the criterion should be one week.
OTOH I think a stable arch in the Lincoln Sea funnel should also count.
And using these criteria, I think there is still a chance of an arch this year, probability a bit above 50%, so I'll vote yes.

[Tor Bejnar]

I'll go with a 'stable' bridge forming from Hall Basin to the southern Lincoln Sea that lasts a week being a "yes", the Strait has frozen over. (A 2nd criteria added to the first.)  (Edit made to first post.)

[Tor Bejnar]

A couple days left in this poll. (Nares Strait is still open...)

[Tor Bejnar]

The nays have it.  Kane Basic appears to still be flowing.