Rules (edited, per posts just below):
1) An ice bridge (arch) must form in or near Kane Basin and hold for at least two days to 'count', before July 1, 2022 (and during 2022).
2) A 'stable' bridge forming from Hall Basin to the southern Lincoln Sea that lasts a week will also count.
You may change your vote, but the results will not show until the poll closes ~March 2nd (5 days from this post's date)
Historical info:
Nares Strait Ice Bridge Dates
compiled from [arch forming dates] to [breaking dates]
"Winter" arch formation to "Spring" break up
2020-21 - December 5, 2020 to July 2, 2021
2019-20 - December 17, 2019 to July 2, 2020
2018-19 - No arch
2017-18 - March 1, 2018 to June 30, 2018
2016-17 - No arch (in the strait proper)*. Northern arch broke about June 30, 2017
2015-16 - December 6, 2015 to June 30, 2016
2014-15 - February 13, 2015 to July 5, 2015
2013-14 - January 5, 2014 (northern arch started - southern just after) to June 20, 2014
2012-13 - November 8, 2012 to July 10, 2013
2011-12 - December 6, 2011 to June 30, 2012
2010-11 - January 29, 2011 to July 5, 2011
2009-10 - No arch formed(?)* broke July 10, 2010
2008-09 - arch at extreme north end of channel - about March 10, 2009 to June 30, 2009
2007-08 - April 1, 2008 to June 10, 2008
2006-07 - No arch
Some clarity could be added to the 2009-10 and 2016-17 history. [* - edit: see next post] Are pre-2007 dates known?
Note that the latest aches that formed formed on or about March 1 and April 1.
If you live in Ukraine, "It doesn't matter" would be an appropriate vote.
Comments about Nares Strait closing or not "mattering" (for non-political reasons) would be appropriate.