Climate Change and Civil Relations

[Theta]

Recently, Europe has begun to experience a large flow of Refugees that are trying to escape the terror that is occurring in their native countries and certain European countries are welcoming these refugees with open arms, for example Germany, while certain other countries are keen on limiting the number of refugees that are allowed in. What is noteable about the kind actions of Germany is the question as to whether or not they can continue to allow people into the country like this because there are issues that are surrounding the resources available along with the Cultural differences between the refugees and the native population. This question becomes even more serious when Climate Change is taken into consideration as it will increase the number of refugees going into Europe as more and more places are affected by droughts, storms and sea level rise.

The reason I have started this thread is because of the potential consequences of the increased number of refugees and the possibility of the host country becoming hostile towards the refugees because of tight resources approaching a certain limit or because of other factors, for example, Economic Collapse. There is a presence of hostility in the western world against refugees as certain countries want tighter controls over the flow of refugees, for example Hungary. Another element of this hostlity could be present in the Media through creating an atmosphere of fear, for example the following artcile (http://www.express.co.uk/news/world/555434/Islamic-State-ISIS-Smuggler-THOUSANDS-Extremists-into-Europe-Refugees ) that states that ISIS members could be amongst the incoming Refugees and judging from the comments on the article, people could see the refugees as a trojan horse in the sense that to them, terrorists amongst the refugees are likely to attack and worsen the European's way of life (whether or not this could happen in reality is debatable and probably depends on the situation in Europe which brings me to my closing remarks on this note).

With increased hostility, especially with fear of ISIS and tightening resources, this hostility will probably be verbal at first before becoming violent with certain Nationalist political groups that are opposed to immigration gaining power as people become more hostile towards the incoming immigrants.

[Theta]

Civil Relations appear to be declining already with tensions rising at the Somalia Border with people showing their resent for refugees crossing the border: http://america.aljazeera.com/articles/2015/9/3/resentment-of-refugees-builds-on-serbian-border.html

Around 10,000 members of PEGIDA (Patriotic Europeans against Western Islamization) marched through, Dresden, Germany, where the group was founded. The crowds decried the tidal wave of migrants coming to Europe and, in particular, the arrival of Muslim refugees en masse in Germany.

Along with this, there is debate in Germany between those who are for accepting refugees and those who are against it: https://www.rt.com/news/314684-germany-protests-migrants-pegida/

Around 10,000 members of PEGIDA (Patriotic Europeans against Western Islamization) marched through, Dresden, Germany, where the group was founded. The crowds decried the tidal wave of migrants coming to Europe and, in particular, the arrival of Muslim refugees en masse in Germany.

In my opinion, things are coming to a head and it is only a matter of time before something triggers a civil war between different demographics within Europe with Extreme Right-Wing parties in central Europe probably being promminent while further North and West will have more extremist Islam type leaders, especially in vulnerable areas like Ireland and the United Kingdom as those areas contain a large number of Muslim minotiries who will feel disenfranchised in these countries and thus will support ISIS in a scenario where either the Islamic State stages an attack in Europe or if a large Economic Crash occurs which will cause resource numbers to drop and increase tension between the different demographics within Europe.

[Sigmetnow]

Global warming is not driving this refugee crisis, but it may drive the next

The ongoing refugee crisis is a teachable moment for the climate change and conflict community, which is growing beyond just a few think tanks to encompass the entire military-industrial complex of the U.S. and other nations.

The U.S. military views climate change as a threat multiplier that will affect everything from an increased need for natural disaster assistance missions, such as the Pentagon's participation in Pakistan flood relief efforts in 2010, to civil wars and regional conflicts in states that already have weak governments and other underlying risk factors.

Scholars tend to back this view up, as well, and it's clear that the message is seeping through to the highest levels of government. As Obama put it recently: "Climate change is a trend that affects all trends — economic trends, security trends. Everything will be impacted. Everything will be impacted."

Neil Bhatiya, a policy associate at the Century Foundation in New York, told Mashable in an email that global warming is best considered as "a macro trend that is filtered through local circumstances." Bhatiya says more attention needs to be paid to how to handle displacement caused by climate change, including refugee status. As he noted, refugee status is a specific legal distinction that has not previously been assigned to people fleeing a natural disaster.

But then again, climate change is more of a manmade disaster.

"... Whether or not you acknowledge climate change as a factor in the Syrian context, I think it is difficult to argue this will not become a more pronounced issue — that, because of climate change, you will see more forcibly displaced in the future," he said.

http://mashable.com/2015/09/08/global-warming-refugee-crisis/

[Theta]

Climate Change will probably become a driver for people leaving not only from the third world, but from many first world areas, especially in California which is already experiencing a severe drought

Meanwhile in Britain, there appears to already be deteriorating relations between people

Also, papers are reporting on an apparent ISIS subject amongst the Refugees

Finally, I wanted to ask this forum a question, this is mainly in response to a lot a series of overly optimistic comments on the Collapse, ISIS and SyrianCivilWar Subreddits. This is mainly on the subject on the potential for ISIS to become a primary force in Western areas, primarily Europe because Europe has opened its arms to the Refugees that are currently fleeing and so I wanted to ask if people here thought that ISIS would be able to mount a strong attack on the west through having the hidden ISIS militants attack all at once, this could be after ISIS mounts a cyberattack disabling communications, thus getting rid of NATO's ability to tackle the problem, and allowing for the Caliphate to expand rapidly across Europe as ISIS attacks cause chaos, allowing for ISIS to charge through Turkey after a weakened Europe. Comments on Reddit strongly oppose this idea and discount it as either Science Fiction, in terms of ISIS disabling communications, and are confident that the Terrorist Group is unable to mount a strong attack as they will be crushed by NATO anyway. So I am skeptical as to whether there is some truth to this argument or if they are either overconfident or are trying to mask their fears of ISIS becoming a primary force in the west, I must admit, I've been fearful of ISIS ever since the Refugee Crisis began as I always thought that the chaos and confusion from attacks within Europe would rid NATO of it's ability to respond.

[Milret2]

A significant communication disruption by ISIS is, in my opinion, very unlikely simply because I feel that it would require a state sponsored attack with an EMP device and I feel that ISIS ideology quashes science, sophisticated thinking, and military skills like many other fundamentalist environments ... including those we have here in the States. I do not doubt that they could hassle countries with DDS attacks, low scale terrorism, & exposure of security gaps regards financial accounts, economic resources, and military information. I  just do not feel that our infrastructure is that weak just yet for a major communication disruption.

However, it would appear that the U.S. and it's allies  are not doing as well against ISIS as we are told. -->http://www.rt.com/usa/314970-revolt-isis-intelligence-centcom/

My own feelings regards both war refugees and climate refugees is  that mans humanity is far exceeded by it's inhumanity and very soon, as things deteriorate, people who are legitimate refugees and deserving of help and sympathy will find there is no room for them.

It is an interesting and important topic though. Thanks for starting the thread.

[Gray-Wolf]

ISIS 'ideology ' has them creating images ( filming) them destroying 'images'........... I do not think they are very ideological really.... angry young men with no level of humanitarian control...... ex Iraqi soldiers with some military knowledge.....

With Corbyn doing so well in the UK and Bernie on a roll in the u.S. I do not know whether we are seeing a socialist answer to the growing far right? Did we skip a century or something??? The last time we saw such polarization we ended in a world war......

[Theta]

ISIS 'ideology ' has them creating images ( filming) them destroying 'images'........... I do not think they are very ideological really.... angry young men with no level of humanitarian control...... ex Iraqi soldiers with some military knowledge.....

With Corbyn doing so well in the UK and Bernie on a roll in the u.S. I do not know whether we are seeing a socialist answer to the growing far right? Did we skip a century or something??? The last time we saw such polarization we ended in a world war......

I guess we will have to wait and see what happens with politics. I suspect that the next Lone-Wolf style attack that ISIS decides to pull will probably cause a spike in hostility towards migrants, thus giving them more power in the future maybe, either that or a full mounted attack that could cause Civil War to erupt?