Cryosphere Today 2013 Arctic SIA maximum

[Neven]

Let's try out one of those polls.

The current CT SIA number is pretty high for the time of the year:



Previous maximums with date of max, in million km2:

March 6th 2005: 13.46
March 11th 2006: 13.36
Febr. 26th 2007: 13.32
March 11th 2008: 13.89
March 2nd 2009: 13.85
March 7th 2010: 13.81
March 8th 2011: 13.14
March 29th 2012: 13.71

Latest SIA number for February 17th is 13.53 million km2. How high do you think it will end up (poll)? And when (comment)? Poll will close in 7 days.

[Juan C. García]

Maximum at March 7th., 2013; Between 13.8 and 13.9 million

[Jim Pettit]

Given that CT Arctic SIA is:

-Save for 2009, over the 13.5 million km2 mark earlier than it has been on this date in any year since 2004; and

-Already higher than the maximums reached in 2011, 2007, 2006, and 2005; and

-Not too far off from the the maximums reached in 2012 and 2004; and

-There may be up to five-and-a-half weeks of growth left based on last year's late-March maximum

---it would be easy to guess that this year's maximum will be just over or under 14 million km2. And my "cat-o-nine-tails" projection graph gives credence to that possibility:



 However--sea ice extent, which normally leads area by a day or two, has dropped the last two days, and we are at that time of the year, so I'll say we add another quarter of a million plus, and thus max out between 13.8 and 13.9 during the second week of March. Call it the 10th.

[Neven]

I'm also going for between 13.8 and 13.9 million km2, but it's going to hover for a long time, until March 18th, that is. I'm notoriously bad at calling the max (after having called it twice erroneously last year), so don't rely on my opinion, people.

I'm seeing on the weather forecast maps that a big high is now over the Beaufort Sea and projected to stay there. This should kick the Beaufort Gyre into gear and might cause ice transport towards Fram Strait and Olga Strait where there is a lot of room for ice 'growth'. If that keeps up I think it could go above 14 million km2.

[Jim Williams]

I'm looking at the DMI 80th and North temperature ( http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/meant80n.uk.php ), the surface temperature ( http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/map/images/fnl/sfctmpmer_01b.fnl.html ), and at the due date on the poll of the 27th.  Going over 14 seems possible, but I have a few days to make up my mind. 

[diablobanquisa]

Between 13.9 and 14.0 million, March 15th

[misfratz]

I've voted for above 14 million, and I'll put the date on March 24th.

Why? I'm mainly basing this on the SSTs in the Barentsz sea being colder this year than last. I think there's going to be a late freeze there which will take us up high.

[Doomcomessoon]

Maximum was reached yesterday, on the 20th of Frebruary (13.531 million square km.). SIE peaked, at least temporarily, a couple of days ago, and since we're already pretty high compared to orther maximums, I dare myself to bet on an early maximum this year.

[Neven]

Doom, you might very well be walking into my footsteps! 

[Gray-Wolf]

I've got a feeling that we will see an early end to the Freeze season this year. we've seen the A.O. taking a differing track to recent years and we've now got these low temps in areas of the basin so I reckon that the end date will also flip from recent years and come early. We have a Full moon tidal fracturing event to come and a lot of area fro the Fram side of the pack to flow into so Extent may end up giving a 'Faux High' as a shattered Fram side of the pack flows south into the Atlantic (up until it stretches below the cut off percentage) but Area I reckon peaks in the second week of March (13th?) with a 13.7 mill?

[ChrisReynolds]

Compared to summer, winter is very hard to predict. The maximum is set in widely spaced regions subject to widely spaced weather patterns. The date of maximum shows no trend, and no relationship to volume or area, in a sense it is a static tie-point fixed by insolation, tying the start of the melt cycle, with weather adding a random wobble around the tie point. Last year was the latest start to the melt season, some 7 days later than any previous CT area day of maximum (IIRC 2012's CT area peak was on day 89).

[DaddyBFree]

At 12:01 a.m., March 1st, SIA will peak just above 14, and will then all melt away, to 0, not counting calving glaciers, as of August 4th, coinciding with a meaningless celebration of the greatest achievement known to man, deep-fried-butter with red white and blue sprinkles, and 113 years to the day of the death of Jean Joseph Étienne Lenoir, Belgian producer of the first mass produced internal combustion engine.  Give or take, of course.

[icebgone]

Given the recent cold temperatures and ice vulnerable to fracturing from changing pressures, wind and currents, thin ice will fill the fissures and lead to increasing area through March 12 and continuing in a slow melt up till spring equinox.

[Gray-Wolf]

This is the issue. Summer ice has reacted first as a response to the relentless volume loss. Over winter we face both the loss of structural integrity of the ice but also the impacts on the atmosphere from the season just passed.

The 07' event had great impacts on both the amount of FY ice in the basin and the way the atmosphere above acted over the following winter (how could such a change not impart impact?).

2012 is not only a similar scale of event but is also on the back of those 07' impacts.#

It is strange to me that we have seen such an odd AO this winter. Has low solar aided the past impacts from 07' ? has higher solar swung things away from that extreme or has 2012 pushed us even further in the same direction?

Since 07' we had edged toward a late Max with the AO helping set up the 'Ice Factory' over Bering that both extended the season and pushed up ice area.

Last year we saw those forces pull the ice off the Alaskan coast leading to the open water there early season, We see the same 'pull off' there this year but not the same extent increase there.

We see pole to Fram fragmentation, a trend I've witnessed since 07' but this tear the amount of season long fragmentation must have left us with a very poor strength pack prior to the full moon next week.

If we are seeing the 'next stage' in the Arctics changes then I'd favour an earlier max and also an earlier melt out of the majority of the pack in July.

I think it is ice loss and not solar cycle that is king here. I think an early start to melt and then the state of the ice it's self leading us to an early max melt out. Post Aug is where the fun may begin. Will it or wont it best 2012?

[icebgone]

A key to melt levels this summer is the amount of energy that is available once snow melting is completed.  The split cold core and persistent low pressure systems dragging atlantic and pacific moisture into the arctic should have resulted in additional snow cover which may increase albedo once the sun returns.  Does the NSIDC keep track of this dynamic?

[ChrisReynolds]

icebgone,

A major albedo factor is the lower albedo of FYI and that the difference between energy gain over the melt season between FYI and MYI is an extra 1/3 energy gain.

2011 week 52 ice age, before last year's record melt.
ftp://ccar.colorado.edu/pub/tschudi/iceage/gifs/age2011_52.gif

2012 week 52 ice age, before this years melt.
ftp://ccar.colorado.edu/pub/tschudi/iceage/gifs/age2012_52.gif

[ivica]

13.6..13.7
March, 19.
Not much of support, a gut feeling only mainly

[Wipneus]

Predicting the ASI maximum won't be much better than predicting white noise.
Let me try, and see how an attached graph works.
We are probably at or at least very near a minimum volume, so area should be be near the minimum value as well. But we have already passed that.
So my guess is that it will not grow very much, instead of the usual 0.4 Mm2, Go for 0.15.
My prediction: 13.65 Mm2 second week of March.

[ChrisReynolds]

Wipneus,

Now that is a fascinating graph, I've not tried that approach.

Is the blue line and grey region a fit with confidence interval? If so it seems to be losing some detail. It looks to me like we have two clusters with a drop in area around 21k km^3 volume. Otherwise the blue plot seems to be a linear drop with a tempering of loss rate - could this be due to autumn ice growth countering the effects of volume loss?

Rather than blather on I'll hit Excel for myself.

Here's the same plot but with years linked.
http://farm9.staticflickr.com/8378/8497442307_cbf77883e8_o.jpg

[Wipneus]

Wipneus,

Now that is a fascinating graph, I've not tried that approach.

Is the blue line and grey region a fit with confidence interval?

It is how I tend to look at the problem: first think volume and after that see how it is spread over the arctic.

The curve is a loess smooth: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Local_regression

The math is maybe a bit complicated, but I find the result very much like what I would draw myself with a pencil and graph paper. Tried a straight line as well, that did not look very convincing.

[ChrisReynolds]

Thanks Wipneus.

[James Lovejoy]

I've guessed between 14.0 and 14.1.  I don't have any confidence in it though.

To me the big uncertainty is what will happen in the Bering Sea.  If the Bering Sea area has already seen it's maximum, the 2013 area maximum will be between 13.7 and 13.8, if it behaves like last year, the 2013 Arctic area maximum could go above 14.2.

The last few days the Bering Sea area has gone down, and the NOAA 6-10 and 8-14 day forecast is for warmer than normal temperatures, so my guess may be somewhat optimistic.

[Peter Ellis]

I guessed over 14.2, not really for any scientific reason but simply because that's the outcome likely to provoke most guff in all sectors of the blogosphere 

If you want a semi-scientific gloss on it, the last few years have often shown quite late, high maxima.  Moreover, the record melt of 2007 was followed in 2008 spring by the highest maximum since 2003.  A similar fake bounce seems not unlikely.

[ivica]

C'mon guys,
Guessing Max is only part of the game, what about Date?

[dreater]

You guys are way, way beyond my abilities.   You all analyze; all I can do is guess - and I don't have enough background on the behavior of the ice pack at maximum to even make an "educated" guess.

Given that, a purely gut-level guess would be... 3.8 to 3.9, probably not later than March 7 or so.  But that's based on nothing but speculation.

Dave

[Neven]

IJIS SIE had a big jump of 120K...

[StuartC]

Like dreater I lack the knowledge even to make an informed guess, so I looked at the colourful skein of graphs on CT and mentally stuck a in pin which produced something like:

Between 13.7 and 13.8 on 9th March . . .

[Jim Williams]

Maximum was reached yesterday, on the 20th of Frebruary (13.531 million square km.). SIE peaked, at least temporarily, a couple of days ago, and since we're already pretty high compared to orther maximums, I dare myself to bet on an early maximum this year.

I've decided to go with Doom Comes Soon.  The maximum area has already happened.

[Vaughn]

The Climate Prediction Center is predicting warm conditions in the Bering Sea for the next two weeks.  The NAEFS's 14 day forecast is showing warm conditions in the Chukchi Sea and the area west of southern Greenland.  My guess is 13.6 to 13.7 mkm^2 in the next few days for ice max although it could go as high as 13.8 mkm^2.  Still more or less a shot in the dark though .

[lanevn]

I've decided to go with Doom Comes Soon.  The maximum area has already happened.

25 feb already beat maximum, and it is still very cold in Barents and Chukchi sea, so there is fast freezing there. Looks like it will be fast grows till average numbers like it were in 2012

[crandles]

Last data before deadline 13.668 a new high and getting very close to last years 13.709.

Now we need weather interpretation and I am not sure I am that good at that. Bering may get hammered by strong warm winds but Barents has wind from north which could help ice spread. Baffin has east wind off Greenland.

Hmm, perhaps a bit ambiguous. So it is just a guess. I may be underestimating strong warm wind on Bering but I am going to go for 14 to 14.1 and slightly later than average 17 March.

[Jim Pettit]

Just a few notes on CT sea ice area:

• SIA increased by 138k square kilometers yesterday (Day 57). That's the largest one-day increase this year, and the eighth century jump of 2013.
• SIA now stands at 13,668,450 km2. That's the highest it's been on this date since 2003 (2006 is in first place, with 12.7 million km2), and it is, in fact, higher than the 2000-2009 average for the day of 13.57 million km2.
• With possibly four weeks or so left to grow (if last year is any harbinger), 2013 SIA has already surpassed the maxima measured in 2005, 2006, 2007, and 2011, and is but a stone's throw away from exceeding the 2004, 2008, 2009, 2010, and 2012 maxima.
• The to-date February SIA average of 13.22 million km2 is higher than the 2005, 2006, 2007, 2010, 2011, and 2012 February averages, and is in fact higher than the March averages experienced in 2006, 2007, and 2011.

[Neven]

Indeed a big jump, a couple of days after IJIS. SIA seems to trail SIE a bit during winter, and sometimes during summer too.

That Beaufort Gyre is not showing any signs of letting up, in fact ECMWF says it will intensify big time in the coming week.

[lanevn]

I wonder, how sea can still freeze up even at lat. 45? Ok, air is cold, but its heat capacity too low comparing with water, so irradiance balance must play first role. Strange for me that it isn't so (. Maybe you can make some faq for noob questions like this?

[Jim Pettit]

A Day 58 update: CT SIA climbed another 114k km2 yesterday (the ninth day of century growth in 2013), bringing the current total to 13,782,847 km2. That means this year's maximum is already higher than the maximums measured in 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2011, and 2012, and it's less than 100k km2 from going over the 1996, 2009, and 2010 maximums.

Incidentally, Day 58 was the day on which the 1983 and 2007 maximums occurred. Seven of the 34 SIA maximums in the record, or a little more than 20%, have occurred on or before Day 58.

[lanevn]

Good days for sceptics  . Where is info about heatwave in Bering Strait from? I can see only cold one there http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/map/images/fnl/sfctmpmer_01b.fnl.gif

[Jim]

Hmm...
CT area just below 14 Mkm² and rising quickly.
Sea Ice anomaly reaching zero.
Daily Mean Temperature in the Arctic way down.
and the Arctic Basin area still in deep freeze.

I had chosen 13.8 - 13.9, but I now think the season will end quite a bit above 14, and it will take a 'perfect storm' of a summer to reach, let alone exceed, last summer's melt.
Perhaps WUWT was right all along 
(Just kidding...)

[wanderer]

Well...

Let's wait for the new PIOMAS-Update!

[mmghosh]

I chose more than 14.2 for the simple reason that there is (1) a rebound following a record melt and (2) freshwater freezes faster than seawater.  If you notice, Antarctic sea ice is growing (coastal and seasonal and not multiyear) probably because of increasing Antarctic land ice melt and a resultant decrease in Antarctic coastal salinity.

[lanevn]

Maybe extent already peaked Feb 27 http://www.ijis.iarc.uaf.edu/en/home/seaice_extent.htm

[john_mann]

Too late to vote but here's a prediction: the SIA will be relatively high this winter peak and there will be loud cheering from the usual suspects that Arctic Ice has recovered.....

[Neven]

CT SIA seems to have slowed down, following IJIS SIE which is actually going down and is now almost 100K below the previous peak. If this is due to the current weather pattern, we might see a stalling or even reduction over the next 5-6 days, since the ECMWF weather forecast model says things are staying as they are.

I thought ice transport towards Fram and the rest of the Atlantic would increase SIE and SIA, but maybe warm waters aren't allowing it?

[Vaughn]

It appears that there is at least a fair chance the maximum occurred on or near February 27.
1. The climate Prediction Center  http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/ shows above normal temperatures in the Bering Sea on the 6-10 day forecast as well as the 8-14 day forecast.
2.The NAEFS  http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/short_range/NAEFS/Outlook_D264.00.php  on the 8 to 14 day forecast shows above normal temperatures in the Bering Sea and in Northeastern Canada to the coast of Greenland south to Newfoundland.
3. According to the Cryosphere Today  http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/  ice area in the Bering Sea is currently very high similar to last year.
4. If these forecasts hold up I expect to see substantial declines in these peripheral areas.
5. Several of the reliable ice data sources already show some decline in ice over the past several days.
6. According to the NAEFS below normal to normal temperatures in the SOO could partially offset some of these losses.
Therefore if I had to vote I would vote for the maximum ice to have already occurred.

[Gray-Wolf]

I've got a feeling that we will see an early end to the Freeze season this year. we've seen the A.O. taking a differing track to recent years and we've now got these low temps in areas of the basin so I reckon that the end date will also flip from recent years and come early. We have a Full moon tidal fracturing event to come and a lot of area fro the Fram side of the pack to flow into so Extent may end up giving a 'Faux High' as a shattered Fram side of the pack flows south into the Atlantic (up until it stretches below the cut off percentage) but Area I reckon peaks in the second week of March (13th?) with a 13.7 mill?

I'm bumping this because I do think ( over the years since 06') that the two moons approaching equinox can play merry heck with the ice. Air pressure will lift , or depress, the surface but the tide then augments this over a 12 hr period. Any other forcings on the ice can then exploit this moment of weakness.

the next point of interest is coming through the new moon and the pressure forcings appear set to exploit this to the full?

I do think that, over the coming years, the thin ice will respond to the spring tide moons each year and that , as we will see this spring/early summer, such a mangled pack helps with the rapid melt of young ice.

[gfwellman]

NSIDC is getting ready to call the max, but they're not going to call it quite this early.
http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/2013/03/a-fractured-maximum/

CT is nearly 200k below its early peak, but certainly wiggles that big are possible at this time of year.

I'd say the fat lady is warming up in the wings but whether she's on in 5 isn't quite certain yet.

[Jim Pettit]

NSIDC is getting ready to call the max, but they're not going to call it quite this early.
http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/2013/03/a-fractured-maximum/

CT is nearly 200k below its early peak, but certainly wiggles that big are possible at this time of year.

I'd say the fat lady is warming up in the wings but whether she's on in 5 isn't quite certain yet.

Last year is a great case in point. From Day 67 through Day 76, CT SIA dropped by nearly a quarter of a million km2, and many--including me--were ready and willing to assume that max had been reached, especially since it was so late. But from Day 77 through Day 80, that quarter million came roaring back, and then some. Then, over the next eight days, SIA dropped again by 142,000 km2, and it seemed the maximum must surely have been reached, as it was already nearly a week after the previous latest maximum. But--surprise, surprise--nearly 150,000 km2 was added on Days 89 and 90, finally reaching a latest-ever maximum on Day 90.

It's certainly possible that the CT SIA 2013 maximum has indeed been reached. If so, that was 13.799 million km2 on Day 59 (28 February). But you won't see me in a Vegas sportsbook laying money down just yet...

[Neven]

Don't look at me! 

[icebgone]

I was ready to call the maximum until the latest SSW.  With vortex cracking cold air moves further south into Pacific and perhaps Atlantic waters. A possibility of additional thin ice formation in the Bering, SoO and Baltic could swell Extent and Area through April 1.  The question remains, How will ice melt proceed?  Will we have individual days with 300k, 400k or even 500k of melt?  This could be a very interesting melt season!   

[Neven]

With weather patterns changing again, IJIS SIE has decided to climb some more. CT SIA will probably start to follow in days to come. This is definitely not over. I have learned from last year's painful lesson.

[lanevn]

Still too cold in Barents sea, it looks like freezing not over