Support the Arctic Sea Ice Forum and Blog

Author Topic: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change  (Read 697643 times)

nanning

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1421
  • 0Kg CO2, 35 KWh/wk,130L H2O/wk, No heating
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 193
  • Likes Given: 8913
Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #2950 on: January 16, 2020, 06:49:01 AM »
Indeed gerontocrat, and perhaps you don't know it, but the 1953 floods were such a big disaster that the Netherlands started and finished an enormous 30 year project to safeguard our southern coastline and the Rhine and Meuse delta against similar threats:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Delta_Works

And as kassy writes, there are a plethora of other threats in these times.

I hadn't thought about a tornado yet, but why not? And why not hurricanes? Expect the unexpected because the 'new normal' is hundreds of years into the future.

Here in Friesland in the north, we have the West-Frisian Islands (NL: Waddeneilanden) and the very shallow Wadden Sea as a barrier before our dykes are hit.
The area where I live is a bit elevated (ca. NAP +1m) because of a sandy hill, left behind by the last glaciation.
"It is preoccupation with possessions, more than anything else, that prevents us from living freely and nobly" - Bertrand Russell
   Simple: minimize your possessions and be free and kind    It's just a mindset.       Refugees welcome

El Cid

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 670
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 210
  • Likes Given: 49
Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #2951 on: January 16, 2020, 08:10:13 AM »
As for the orderly jet stream:

My completely unscientific view is that  as wind pushed a lot of ice into the Barents very early this year, this led to cool temperatures (see Longyearbyen's weather this year as opoosed to previopus years!)  and this stabilized tropospheric temperatures at a low level (cold) which helped stabilize the stratospheric vortex. While in the past few years the Barents was mostly icefree and therefore warm which destabilized the stratospheric vortex from the bottom leading to waviness and splits.
So that is why I think we have a stable jetstream, no vortex split and generally "calm" winter weather.

As for storms: there are two forces: 1) it is shown that tropical cyclogenesis is likely to become stronger but 2) the lessened Equator-Pole temperature difference should lead to less wind in the NH. I am not sure which one prevails but either way the Netherlands is going to become a place becoming less liveable as it will have to fight ever more and ever stronger floods

be cause

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 920
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 288
  • Likes Given: 235
Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #2952 on: January 16, 2020, 11:19:28 AM »
As the Netherlands has the most tornadoes per land area in the world , Nanning should expect the unexpected . Me too .. as the UK comes second . b.c.
2007 + 5 = 2012 + 4 = 2016 + 3 = 2019 + 2 = 2021 
 (phew)

Archimid

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 2442
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 334
  • Likes Given: 185
Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #2953 on: January 16, 2020, 12:00:40 PM »

2. I previously quoted studies about abrupt climate changes, but I always have to requote them because doomers do not believe it:

It is not that I don't believe you. Is that you are using D-O events out of context. D-O events are evidence FOR abrupt climate change and apocalypse, but by waving over the details of what happened during D-O events you are using it as evidence against collapse.

Quote
the first relevant hit in Google from a reliable source:

https://www.nature.com/scitable/knowledge/library/abrupt-climate-change-during-the-last-ice-24288097/

"One of the most surprising findings was that the shifts from cold stadials to the warm interstadial intervals occurred in a matter of decades, with air temperatures over Greenland rapidly warming 8 to 15°C" (the original study used decades as well, but said that it likely happened within a matter of YEARS. )


This event was very, very different from the current situation. It was much smaller in magnitude as it was a very local change in sea ice cover near Greenland that precipitated an abrupt global climate change.

That D-O event was small in terms of time and space scale but changed the climate for millennia. Wetlands turned to deserts decimating life and temperate forests turned to insect filled jungles. Many species went extinct, many species thrived. Rivers formed, rivers dried. But there were no humans there to write about it.

If the climate changes and there is no one to write about it, does it really changes?

If there were 7 billion settled humans, dependent on nature for water, food and a stable atmosphere at the time of D-O events, what would have happened to them? (Assume they knew a D-O would happen but they decided to do nothing about it)

Quote
I did not see Greenland temperatures going up 8 to 15C in the past decades, so saying that the current warming is unprecedented is baseless in my view

You should know by now the difference between local climate change and global climate change. What is happening now is unprecedented. Your view on this is objectively wrong.
I am an energy reservoir seemingly intent on lowering entropy for self preservation.

El Cid

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 670
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 210
  • Likes Given: 49
Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #2954 on: January 16, 2020, 01:27:05 PM »
As for this

" Wetlands turned to deserts decimating life and temperate forests turned to insect filled jungles. Many species went extinct, many species thrived. Rivers formed, rivers dried. But there were no humans there to write about it."

I totally agree, that is what I said above. There were huge and FAST changes which decimated life but did not destroy it at all.

Now, as for this one:

"If there were 7 billion settled humans, dependent on nature for water, food and a stable atmosphere at the time of D-O events, what would have happened to them?"

This is a relevant question. And I say that there would have been huge problems when temperatures FELL during these D-O events, partly because of less heat and partly because it brought with it much drying, decimating agriculture and possibly leading to war. When temperatures ROSE in Europe, it would have been a blessing: longer growing periods and more rain = more food.

This is not only a theory, it is a historical fact: every big COOLING event led to catastrophe: when the Roman Warm period ended, the Dark Ages arrived and before that the Greek Dark Ages. Recently the Little Ice Age wreaked havoc.
When warming came to Europe it led to great and stable empires. Mycene, then the Romans, then Charlemagne's "Renaissance" after hundreds of dark ages

kassy

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1043
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 515
  • Likes Given: 443
Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #2955 on: January 16, 2020, 01:55:32 PM »
A bit warmer weather then the ice ages is good but too much heat is not. Of course it is not just the heat but also changing precipitation pattern, loss of alpine snow cover whith knock on effects on the rivers etc etc.

Þetta minnismerki er til vitnis um að við vitum hvað er að gerast og hvað þarf að gera. Aðeins þú veist hvort við gerðum eitthvað.

Tom_Mazanec

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 2029
    • View Profile
    • Planet Mazanec
  • Liked: 460
  • Likes Given: 81
Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #2956 on: January 16, 2020, 01:59:20 PM »
“Hundreds of dark ages” El CID?
SHARKS (CROSSED OUT) MONGEESE (SIC) WITH FRICKIN LASER BEAMS ATTACHED TO THEIR HEADS

gerontocrat

  • First-year ice
  • Posts: 7167
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 1952
  • Likes Given: 24
Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #2957 on: January 16, 2020, 04:06:23 PM »
Anybody going to post something on "Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change"?

There is a thread called Holocene Extinction
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

nanning

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1421
  • 0Kg CO2, 35 KWh/wk,130L H2O/wk, No heating
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 193
  • Likes Given: 8913
Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #2958 on: January 16, 2020, 05:39:48 PM »
Thanks for making us aware of it gerontocrat.
Like others, I easily cross thread borders without being aware of it.

Then again, this forum has no clean thread system were all subjects are covered with clear borders. Many threads overlap and we even have a Tesla thread, for just one specific car manufacturer, even mentioning "glory".
This threads system is chaotic (apart from the ice related threads) and should be redesigned for clarity and functionally separate purposes/subjects. That won't happen of course. It is in many ways the same as our human language.

On topic:
It has been a nice day here for a change. Sunshine and not much wind. We used to have that a lot when it still was freezing for many days in winter. Quiet cold weather with sunshine on the ice and snow.
"It is preoccupation with possessions, more than anything else, that prevents us from living freely and nobly" - Bertrand Russell
   Simple: minimize your possessions and be free and kind    It's just a mindset.       Refugees welcome

be cause

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 920
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 288
  • Likes Given: 235
Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #2959 on: January 16, 2020, 06:43:03 PM »
I remember Leewauden in 1992 ( i think ) @ the end of Jan. .. everyone was complaining .. no snow , no ice . Been somewhere in Holland 6 Januaries since . No snow , no ice .. b.c.
2007 + 5 = 2012 + 4 = 2016 + 3 = 2019 + 2 = 2021 
 (phew)

nanning

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1421
  • 0Kg CO2, 35 KWh/wk,130L H2O/wk, No heating
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 193
  • Likes Given: 8913
Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #2960 on: January 16, 2020, 07:53:57 PM »
^^
Yes, it's been some time since our customary ice and snow winters. I am old enough to remember the 70s and learned to iceskate well.

Note: Holland does not exist, like America doesn't exist. It is wrong.
This country is called The Netherlands,
and what people call America is called the U.S.A.: The 2nd largest country of the North-American continent.
Of course you knew that last part. It was meant to kick the U.S.A. centric world view. Hard. In the crotch.

P.S. we had an 'Elfstedentocht' in 1997.
"It is preoccupation with possessions, more than anything else, that prevents us from living freely and nobly" - Bertrand Russell
   Simple: minimize your possessions and be free and kind    It's just a mindset.       Refugees welcome

philopek

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 487
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 221
  • Likes Given: 40
Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #2961 on: January 16, 2020, 10:41:20 PM »

Note: Holland does not exist, like America doesn't exist. It is wrong.
This country is called The Netherlands,

For the sake of those who really don't know of which are many were you just hit LOL, Holland does indeed exist, even though as provinces and not as countries and of course i know you were speaking about countries. "holland does not exist" is similarly misleading than calling the netherlands "holland" which people do in many countries.

I grew up and never knew anything than the name "holland" for the netherlands, even at school we were tought that way in the 60-ies.

however, there is noord holland and zuid holland that are "provinces" i'll check tomorrow after having arrived in Amsterdam, shall visit twice during the next 2 weeks. in between i go skiing in "georgia" (caucasus) after i did the work why i have to visit "tbilisi"

PS: i'm kidding about checking tomorrow of course and hope that i was able to make clear that it's not about nitpicking, just an exchange about terms and how difficult it is to stay most precise at any point in a discussion ;) ;)  (not saying we have to, main thing is to be mutually understood)
« Last Edit: January 16, 2020, 11:54:53 PM by philopek »

Archimid

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 2442
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 334
  • Likes Given: 185
Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #2962 on: January 16, 2020, 10:49:10 PM »
This is a relevant question. And I say that there would have been huge problems when temperatures FELL during these D-O events, partly because of less heat and partly because it brought with it much drying, decimating agriculture and possibly leading to war. When temperatures ROSE in Europe, it would have been a blessing: longer growing periods and more rain = more food.

The most important difference when comparing Anthropogenic climate change with D-O events is the base temperature. D-O events happened during a much colder time frame, when the NH was covered by huge ice sheets. It is now relatively warm and the ice sheets disappeared thousands of years ago. 

But in this case, comparing the variability that happened during the Holocene to the changes that happened during D-O events is the most important difference.



The changes in temperature that happened during the Holocene are nothing relative to the changes in temperature during D-O events. Nothing. You can't even compare them in the same conversation.


Quote
This is not only a theory, it is a historical fact: every big COOLING event led to catastrophe: when the Roman Warm period ended, the Dark Ages arrived and before that the Greek Dark Ages. Recently the Little Ice Age wreaked havoc.
When warming came to Europe it led to great and stable empires. Mycene, then the Romans, then Charlemagne's "Renaissance" after hundreds of dark ages

All of the temperature swings you mention are nothing relative to the temperature change climate change has brought. Yet you compare them with all the confidence in the world.




There is an optimal temperature, too hot can be bad, too cold can be bad. Going from mountains of ice to boreal forests sounds good. But going from warm to warmer might be too much. Also, going from cold to warm too fast is most likely bad.

AGW is happening in an already warm world, at a pace that human civilization has never tested. AGW is global and it is not just warming. Poisoning of our air and water is happening at the same time that warming is happening further straining the biosphere. To make it worse, most humans convinced themselves is not a problem for them.






I am an energy reservoir seemingly intent on lowering entropy for self preservation.

The Walrus

  • New ice
  • Posts: 22
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 4
  • Likes Given: 1
Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #2963 on: January 16, 2020, 11:58:01 PM »
Archimid,
That is a rather distorted temperature history.  Most graphs show ~8-10 degrees differences between glacials and interglacials, not 3.  Your last 2 degrees of temperature rise is just a prediction.  Much of what El CID states was accurate.

Archimid

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 2442
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 334
  • Likes Given: 185
Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #2964 on: January 17, 2020, 07:24:41 AM »
I'm sorry, but what el Cid said was extremely inaccurate. He compared D-O events with the very slight temperature swings of the Holocene.  That is absolute madness.



This image better compares the variability during D-O events and Holocene variability. The variability is in a different league. An image of the temperature variability over Greenland for the last 2000 years.




The true analogue for a D-O event is a BOE. When that happens the temperature in the NH will shoot up 10-15 C during summer, ending the world as we know it, just like a D-O event would have done. Except that we also have industrial waste and abandoned nuclear reactors

I am an energy reservoir seemingly intent on lowering entropy for self preservation.

El Cid

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 670
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 210
  • Likes Given: 49
Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #2965 on: January 17, 2020, 08:40:45 AM »
I am a bit fedup with this doomer-sh**. I stated well known scientific facts, ie: very abrupt climate changes routinely happened not only in Greenland but also in NH midlatitudes  without somehow destroying the ecosystem in the past few thousand years. Just one example:

https://pubs.geoscienceworld.org/gsa/geology/article-abstract/36/5/407/29759/Rapid-ecosystem-response-to-abrupt-climate-changes?redirectedFrom=fulltext

"Transitions between different ecological states occurred in as little as 40–230 yr and seem to have been controlled by the position of the Polar Front...open, treeless vegetation indicate cold and dry conditions in response to Heinrich events. Alternating phases of higher and low lake organic productivity, stratified surface waters and long-lasting lake ice cover, decreased or increased catchment erosion, and tree-dominated or herb-dominated vegetation resemble Dansgaard-Oeschger interstadial-stadial variability"

From treeless dry steppe to boreal forest in S.France in a matter of decades. There you have it.

also:
https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029/2007GL031716
strong correlation between Greenland and Europe temps

This is my last post on this thread about this since it is clearly offtopic. SRY

Archimid

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 2442
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 334
  • Likes Given: 185
Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #2966 on: January 17, 2020, 09:06:51 AM »
Quote
I am a bit fedup with this doomer-sh**.

You are more than fed up. You are in such a state of denial that you get basic scientific facts wrong. I don't believe that is ignorance. I believe that is fear psychology. But don't feel bad. Even world leaders like Putin and Trump are vulnerable to it.

Quote
I stated well known scientific facts, ie: very abrupt climate changes routinely happened not only in Greenland but also in NH midlatitudes  without somehow destroying the ecosystem in the past few thousand years.

your understanding of the facts are wrong.

Quote
Just one example:

https://pubs.geoscienceworld.org/gsa/geology/article-abstract/36/5/407/29759/Rapid-ecosystem-response-to-abrupt-climate-changes?redirectedFrom=fulltext

I only have access to the abstract, but this link is proof that you are mistaken. It's right there in the title. This paper is talking about D-O and Heinrich events, 14k-60k years ago NOT THE LAST 1000 YEARS.

Yet you freely compare the slight climate fluctuations of the last 1000 years to D-O events or AGW. You are quantitatively wrong about the variability experienced during D-O events and Holocene variability.

Quote
"Transitions between different ecological states occurred in as little as 40–230 yr and seem to have been controlled by the position of the Polar Front...open, treeless vegetation indicate cold and dry conditions in response to Heinrich events. Alternating phases of higher and low lake organic productivity, stratified surface waters and long-lasting lake ice cover, decreased or increased catchment erosion, and tree-dominated or herb-dominated vegetation resemble Dansgaard-Oeschger interstadial-stadial variability"


AGW will be worse than that because a BOE will be worse than a D-O event, there is AGW on top, there are all other sorts of nasty pollution on top and there is there very distinct possibility of war.

I am an energy reservoir seemingly intent on lowering entropy for self preservation.

nanning

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1421
  • 0Kg CO2, 35 KWh/wk,130L H2O/wk, No heating
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 193
  • Likes Given: 8913
Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #2967 on: January 17, 2020, 11:02:46 AM »
What does "doom" mean?

From https://en.wiktionary.org/wiki/doom:

doom (countable and uncountable, plural dooms)

   1. Destiny, especially terrible.
   2. An undesirable fate; an impending severe occurrence or danger that seems inevitable.
   3. A feeling of danger, impending danger, darkness or despair.

Pretty accurate I'd say.
"It is preoccupation with possessions, more than anything else, that prevents us from living freely and nobly" - Bertrand Russell
   Simple: minimize your possessions and be free and kind    It's just a mindset.       Refugees welcome

be cause

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 920
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 288
  • Likes Given: 235
Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #2968 on: January 17, 2020, 11:52:15 AM »
  doom ? .. a backward mood .. b.c.

 p.s. .. Holland is the very first option offered by Google when I type 'Belfast to ... ' :)  .. I know the Netherlanders .. they all want to go dutch ..

pps .. a trace of frost this morning .. to lighten the mood .
2007 + 5 = 2012 + 4 = 2016 + 3 = 2019 + 2 = 2021 
 (phew)

Shared Humanity

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 4034
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 461
  • Likes Given: 53
Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #2969 on: January 17, 2020, 03:25:31 PM »
What does "doom" mean?

From https://en.wiktionary.org/wiki/doom:

doom (countable and uncountable, plural dooms)

   1. Destiny, especially terrible.
   2. An undesirable fate; an impending severe occurrence or danger that seems inevitable.
   3. A feeling of danger, impending danger, darkness or despair.

Pretty accurate I'd say.

Yeah, sounds spot on.

Shared Humanity

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 4034
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 461
  • Likes Given: 53
Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #2970 on: January 17, 2020, 03:28:35 PM »
You know we are in trouble when the U.S. national weather service hypes every winter storm as a disaster in the making and something we have never seen before. The last winter storm was a real nothing burger in the Midwest with Chicago getting light rain and high winds.

This season, Chicago has not had a single day or night with temps below 0F.

Tor Bejnar

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 3213
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 485
  • Likes Given: 216
Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #2971 on: January 17, 2020, 06:28:31 PM »
Quote
.. a trace of frost this morning ..
Oh, how exciting.  Lets all gather close and breathe on it to see if it grows!  ::)
It works for fire ...   :P

Tallahassee might get some frost next week.  Some nearby areas had a touch of frost a 6-8 weeks ago, but I haven't yet brought my orchids in, but will this weekend.  [70F=21C; 60F=15.5C; 50F=10C; 40F=4C; 30F=-1C]
Meteoblue
Arctic ice is healthy for children and other living things.

Aluminium

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 453
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 389
  • Likes Given: 271
Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #2972 on: January 19, 2020, 10:01:06 PM »
The warmest January in Saint Petersburg for almost 300 years of observations was in 1925 with average -0.5°C. Current month has +2.4°C. There is still not winter in the 10-day forecast.

be cause

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 920
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 288
  • Likes Given: 235
Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #2973 on: January 19, 2020, 11:15:21 PM »
excitement grew here in N.I. .. back to back -5'C's .. last night only -1 was forecast so I didn't drain my water pump .. it was part frozen this afternoon .. now we are contending with near record high pressure .. :)  b.c.
2007 + 5 = 2012 + 4 = 2016 + 3 = 2019 + 2 = 2021 
 (phew)

nanning

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1421
  • 0Kg CO2, 35 KWh/wk,130L H2O/wk, No heating
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 193
  • Likes Given: 8913
Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #2974 on: January 20, 2020, 06:06:24 AM »
Northern Netherlands:
Many tree branches already have quite developed leaf buds, as if expecting springtime soon.
A lot of bird sounds appeared in the past weeks which is a joy to behold for me after half a year of silence, sitting in the woods. They too may be welcoming spring and perhaps even start with an egg.

If freezing temperatures do arrive for a couple of days... the buds will die I expect and the birds may be in trouble with their eggs.
If freezing temperature don't arrive, the parasites and diseases won't get an annual die-off and get a big head start before spring season arrives.
"It is preoccupation with possessions, more than anything else, that prevents us from living freely and nobly" - Bertrand Russell
   Simple: minimize your possessions and be free and kind    It's just a mindset.       Refugees welcome

Sigmetnow

  • Multi-year ice
  • Posts: 16258
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 581
  • Likes Given: 245
Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #2975 on: January 20, 2020, 05:22:02 PM »
Quote
Sam (@SamTalksTesla) 1/20/20, 5:05 AM
This is my town today, just meters from my home. Heartbreaking. Yesterday this was a beautiful cosmopolitan Spanish seafront. This is not normal. People constantly question my choices to not eat animal products and to drive an electric car. Here’s your answer.
https://twitter.com/samtalkstesla/status/1219199137016578049
- The sea is at least 40 meters closer than normal. People are walking around dumbstruck.
Image below; video at the link.

Also below: Surface winds right now.
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

be cause

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 920
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 288
  • Likes Given: 235
Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #2976 on: January 20, 2020, 08:55:22 PM »
Australian parliament building's lawn was buried under golf ball sized hail while elsewhere dust/ash storms threaten . Meanwhile billions are being lost as tourists stay away . Got to dig what coal can do .. b.c.
2007 + 5 = 2012 + 4 = 2016 + 3 = 2019 + 2 = 2021 
 (phew)

Pmt111500

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1905
  • Yes, I do not always bicycle
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 107
  • Likes Given: 37
Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #2977 on: January 21, 2020, 07:13:14 AM »
Well, now the record for January in home city is at least +9,2°C. If I remember correctly, that would be almost 15 degrees above normal. Gotta admit the winter coat has been too hot on many days.
Cooling the outside by heat pump.

Sigmetnow

  • Multi-year ice
  • Posts: 16258
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 581
  • Likes Given: 245
Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #2978 on: January 22, 2020, 01:06:17 AM »
Highest Atmospheric Pressure in More than 300 Years of London Recordkeeping
Quote
According to UK climatology expert Stephen Burt (Department of Meteorology, University of Reading), the mean sea level barometric pressure at Heathrow Airport reached 1049.6 mb (30.99”) at midnight GMT Sunday night (7 p.m. EST).

Not only is this a record for Heathrow, beating 1047.3 mb from February 7, 1964, but it’s also the highest barometric pressure recorded in London in more than 300 years of recordkeeping, Burt said in a summary. ...
https://www.wunderground.com/cat6/Highest-Atmospheric-Pressure-More-300-Years-London-Recordkeeping
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

El Cid

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 670
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 210
  • Likes Given: 49
Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #2979 on: January 22, 2020, 07:17:51 AM »
There's been an extreme high pressure zone above Europe for three weeks now, responsible for generally very warm and sunny weather. This is probably due to unopposed warm air intrusion from Africa unopposed by a well behaved polar vortex - all likely related to generalized global warming and sea ice loss

Aporia_filia

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 110
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 70
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #2980 on: January 23, 2020, 01:46:06 PM »
Translated from eldiario.es with the help of DeepL:

"The storm that has hit the Levant these last three days has illustrated the new climatic normality that Spain is facing: extreme phenomena recorded in unexpected times. The Gloria storm has left at least ten dead, record waves, hurricane winds, marine invasion and destruction on the coast. The climate crisis decreed by the government this Tuesday seems, in this scenario, more justified. 

This squall reveals that we are still heading down an unexplored path of climate change. An isolated depression (DANA) formed over the Mediterranean at a historically unfavourable time of year has coincided with an anticyclone unprecedented in more than half a century in the British Isles. The result has been glory.

The new climate parameters have several components. The oscillation of the Jet Stream (the fast and narrow air flow that circulates in the upper layers of the atmosphere) becomes more intense, resulting in this type of isolated low pressure in our environment even in unfavorable times.

The arrival of cold air masses to the western Mediterranean is frequent in the months of January and February. They usually result in intense invasions of very cold air of polar or Siberian origin as an effect of the retrograde movement of air from the interior of the European continent to the Iberian Peninsula; that is, contrary to the normal circulation of the atmosphere.

What is not so frequent is that these air masses are isolated in our environment at this time of the year and acquire the explosive and erratic behavior typical of the DANAs, and much less that they end up in a storm of east as intense as the one we have suffered. All this, although rare, is not something that has not happened before.

But Gloria has gathered more exceptional things. The key ingredient to understand what happened was about 1,500 kilometers north of the peninsula. In Britain, there was an unusual atmospheric stability. So unusual that it hadn't been recorded for 63 years.

On the evening of January 19th, the British weather service announced on Twitter a historical record of pressure in West Wales. The barometer located at Mubles Head reached 1050.5 hPa, a record not seen since 1957. The powerful anticyclone ensured stability on the Islands.

So, with Gloria in the Levant and the extraordinary anticyclone in the British South, the conditions were created for the wind coming from the North East to acquire almost hurricane force. From then on, all records began to be beaten by one of the worst adverse weather phenomena on record.
Impacts of the storm

The eastern slopes of the Balearic Islands, as well as the entire Valencian and Catalan coastline, have suffered the worst effects of the Gloria storm. The extremely strong eastern storm has caused wind gusts of over 110 km/h and sustained winds of over 100 km/h. It was a hurricane force on a Mediterranean area not used to strong waves, which literally swallowed up a large part of the eastern coast of the peninsula.

The records have been historic. The Valencia buoy has measured waves of 8.44 meters high, the highest level ever recorded by Puertos del Estado on the peninsula's Mediterranean coast. The Mediterranean has literally demanded the property deeds in its natural domains. At points in Mallorca and Girona, the waves have reached double the height of entire four-storey blocks and have flooded the streets of towns such as Tossa de Mar with sea foam.

In addition, in the Ebro delta, the force of the wind pushed the waves inland from the river system of deposits that the Ebro has at its mouth. An environmental disaster pending assessment in one of the most threatened areas of the Iberian Peninsula in the face of the scenarios posed by Climate Change due to the delicate ecological balance it maintains.

The destructive storms on the coasts are increasing. Wind speeds and wave heights have been increasing for three decades, according to research published in the journal Science in April last year. This, coupled with the effects of climate change predict that episodes like Gloria, the storm that ripped out balconies in Tenerife in November 2018, which forced the closure of the promenade of A Coruña a year ago or hit the Andalusian coast in March 2019 will be repeated more frequently, explained the researchers then. A new normality marked by the alteration of the climate. "


kassy

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1043
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 515
  • Likes Given: 443
Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #2981 on: January 23, 2020, 01:58:31 PM »
Interesting piece, thx!

The result has been glory.
This bit was mildly confusing until they mentioned storm Gloria.  :)
Þetta minnismerki er til vitnis um að við vitum hvað er að gerast og hvað þarf að gera. Aðeins þú veist hvort við gerðum eitthvað.

nanning

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1421
  • 0Kg CO2, 35 KWh/wk,130L H2O/wk, No heating
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 193
  • Likes Given: 8913
Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #2982 on: January 23, 2020, 04:53:10 PM »
Yes thanks Aporia.

"Wind speeds and wave heights have been increasing for three decades, "

Here in the Netherlands the winds speeds have also been increasing for three decades.
This week the wind speed is finally a bit lower after weeks of 4 or 5 Bft, the 'new normal', which it will be again after tomorrow if I'm correct.
"It is preoccupation with possessions, more than anything else, that prevents us from living freely and nobly" - Bertrand Russell
   Simple: minimize your possessions and be free and kind    It's just a mindset.       Refugees welcome

be cause

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 920
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 288
  • Likes Given: 235
Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #2983 on: January 23, 2020, 07:27:26 PM »
looks like the Netherlands and neighbours could have a real storm next week .. b.c.

ps .. Nanning what is or are Bft's ?
2007 + 5 = 2012 + 4 = 2016 + 3 = 2019 + 2 = 2021 
 (phew)

Tom_Mazanec

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 2029
    • View Profile
    • Planet Mazanec
  • Liked: 460
  • Likes Given: 81
Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #2984 on: January 23, 2020, 07:56:04 PM »
I guessed Beaufort number?
SHARKS (CROSSED OUT) MONGEESE (SIC) WITH FRICKIN LASER BEAMS ATTACHED TO THEIR HEADS

kassy

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1043
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 515
  • Likes Given: 443
Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #2985 on: January 23, 2020, 11:17:30 PM »
Yes.
https://www.knmi.nl/kennis-en-datacentrum/uitleg/windschaal-van-beaufort

Here in the Netherlands the winds speeds have also been increasing for three decades.

Any link for that?

Þetta minnismerki er til vitnis um að við vitum hvað er að gerast og hvað þarf að gera. Aðeins þú veist hvort við gerðum eitthvað.

El Cid

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 670
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 210
  • Likes Given: 49
Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #2986 on: Today at 07:34:57 AM »


Here in the Netherlands the winds speeds have also been increasing for three decades.

Any link for that?

I wonder about that as well, since as far as I know most of Europe has SLOWER winds in the past few years which is a logical consequence of AGW: less Eqator-Pole tamp difference means less wind. But I might be wrong

nanning

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1421
  • 0Kg CO2, 35 KWh/wk,130L H2O/wk, No heating
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 193
  • Likes Given: 8913
Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #2987 on: Today at 07:53:03 AM »
No kassy, no link. It is anecdotal (like in this thread title) from someone who used to cycle a lot and be outside a lot in the 70s and 80s.

I have asked the KNMI (met. office) the question (in 2019):
"In my anecdotal evidence I think the average wind speed has increase by 1 Bft from the 1975-1979 period compared with 2015-2019 period. All average wind speeds are in your database (www.weerstatistieken.nl) and with only one or two SQL queries you can find the answer."

No answer, not even an acknowledgement that they received my mail (this was sent from their own weerstatistieken site).
"It is preoccupation with possessions, more than anything else, that prevents us from living freely and nobly" - Bertrand Russell
   Simple: minimize your possessions and be free and kind    It's just a mindset.       Refugees welcome

kassy

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1043
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 515
  • Likes Given: 443
Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #2988 on: Today at 09:22:11 AM »
Thanks.

Since it is about a 1bft change over that time it might fall within natural variations?
If it was easy to query and it really stood out as significant that would be an easy paper.

Possibly something about wind trends is in some paper for wind energy.
Þetta minnismerki er til vitnis um að við vitum hvað er að gerast og hvað þarf að gera. Aðeins þú veist hvort við gerðum eitthvað.

El Cid

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 670
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 210
  • Likes Given: 49
Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #2989 on: Today at 09:56:36 AM »
Oh! Anecdotal evidence :) Have you considered that you were younger in the 70s and 80s and everything was easier, Even the wind was friendlier!

:)

Unfortunately I only have hard data for my own country, where relative to average 20th century winds windspeed for the last years:

2018: -7%
2017: +2%
2016: -8%
2015: -9%
2014: -12%
2013: -17%
2012: -14%
2011: -19%
2010: -14%

This being Central Europe could be totally different from the Atlantic shore. However, I found this for the UK, which should be similar to the Netherlands:

https://www.statista.com/statistics/322785/average-wind-speed-in-the-united-kingdom-uk/

This shows that the 2010s were slower than the 2000s

nanning

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1421
  • 0Kg CO2, 35 KWh/wk,130L H2O/wk, No heating
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 193
  • Likes Given: 8913
Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #2990 on: Today at 10:25:15 AM »
I think if you compare an average wind speed figure from a 5 year period in the 70's with a 5 year period 40 years later, you have something significant if the average changed by 1 full Bft. On a scale of 0 to say 6 bft -> convert to m/s and you know that the 1 Bft variation is stronger than uncertainties from natural variability.

Yes El Cid, I have considered that. I am much stronger now (see my photo in Artic Café) than when I was 12yo and 1m40 so things were not easier back then.

Another anecdotal from me: There was also on average less frequent change of weather patterns and wind directions.
"It is preoccupation with possessions, more than anything else, that prevents us from living freely and nobly" - Bertrand Russell
   Simple: minimize your possessions and be free and kind    It's just a mindset.       Refugees welcome

Aporia_filia

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 110
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 70
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #2991 on: Today at 11:38:37 AM »
Historical wind record, for the last 30 years in Barcelona
https://datosclima.es/Aemethistorico/Vientostad.php

Doesn't seem to show any increase in strength (!?)