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Author Topic: Near Term Human Extinction  (Read 76133 times)

dnem

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Re: Near Term Human Extinction
« Reply #400 on: September 29, 2020, 03:02:12 PM »
Yes, I was referring to the need to cool spent fuel rods which rely on auxiliary generators run mostly on diesel fuel.  I believe this is the bigger risk in the wake of a Carrington scale event than the reactor cores themselves.

vox_mundi

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Re: Near Term Human Extinction
« Reply #401 on: September 29, 2020, 03:47:56 PM »
Those type of events will also melt all transformers so that would leave millions without electricity and with fried computers and phones.

Rebuilding from that will take a long time. Meanwhile the food in the fridge rots, at home and all the shops and warehouses.

PS: The carrington event took 17 hours to get here but usually it takes longer so there is time to shut down things.

Most of the energy directly released by a solar flare is in the form of electromagnetic radiation. ... Since the particles all travel at the speed of light -- 300,000 kilometers per second -- the solar flare energy takes 500 seconds to arrive at Earth -- a little more than eight minutes after it leaves the sun.

A solar flare's burst of electromagnetic radiation also sends particles flying. A coronal mass ejection, or CME, is the name given to a big surge of particles emitted from the surface of the sun, and it  sometimes accompanies a solar flare.

The speed of the particles depends on the strength and rapidity of the flare that sends them flying. The highest energy particles from a flare can arrive in as little as two minutes after the electromagnetic radiation, while CMEs take up to three or four days to arrive at Earth.

Effects is regional, not global. Risk is determined by factors such as magnetic latitude, distance to the coast and ground conductivity.

https://www.lloyds.com/news-and-risk-insight/risk-reports/library/natural-environment/solar-storm

http://www.empcommission.org/docs/A2473-EMP_Commission-7MB.pdf

https://www.airuniversity.af.edu/Portals/10/AUPress/Papers/LP_0002_DeMaio_Electromagnetic_Defense_Task_Force.pdf

https://public-blog.nrc-gateway.gov/2016/07/05/update-keeping-u-s-reactors-safe-from-power-pulses/

The Nuclear Regulatory Agency concluded as recently as three years ago that nuclear power plants can safely shut down following an EMP event.  NRC drafted a rule last year on maintaining key plant safety functions after a severe event, particularly on how to keep spent fuel pools cool.

https://www.utilitydive.com/news/epri-threat-of-emp-attacks-on-us-transmission-has-been-overstated/553795/

The Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI) found the potential impacts of EMPs on transmission substations do not include long-lasting blackouts, national grid failure and mass casualties, as previously reported. Instead they would lead to regional service interruptions.

It would be good at this point to understand some of the technical steps to an EMP. The first pulse occurs when gamma rays emanating from the burst interact with the Earth’s atmosphere and eject electrons that stream down the Earth’s magnetic field to generate an incredibly fast electromagnetic pulse within about a billionth of a second after the burst. That pulse peaks around 50,000 V/m on the Earth’s surface.

This first pulse is of the most concern because of its high amplitude and wide bandwidth, allowing it to inject significant energy into conductors as short as twelve inches. Fortunately, this pulse only lasts a millionth of a second, but still time to wreak havoc.

Another pulse occurs just after this, resulting from a second set of gammas produced by energetic neutrons. The peak fields are much lower, about 100 V/m and last less than a second.

The final pulse is a wave similar in nature to naturally-occurring geomagnetic storms associated with coronal mass ejections from the Sun’s surface. These are low frequency, low amplitude pulses that lasts from minutes to hours. Although this may appear to be less intense, these can cause direct damage to equipment connected to long electrical lines, and can damage transformers, uninterruptible power supplies and generators.

Fortunately, the same protection devices we have developed to withstand natural solar events will work with this third pulse. So new protection strategies need to focus on the first two short pulses.

Most nuclear plants are EMP-hardening their back-up generators.

Estimates for turning the power back range from hours to years, depending on region. Since the 2011 report, about 40% of the power plants have hardened their at-risk components. It's still a major problem but not an E.L.E.

It wouldn't be a cake-walk - 1-10 million dead, martial law, etc., lose a half-century of advancement- but life would go on

Affects would be inversely proportional to the degree of technological advancements.
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

harpy

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Re: Near Term Human Extinction
« Reply #402 on: September 29, 2020, 04:38:08 PM »
Maybe it wasn't such an intelligent decision to become wholly reliant upon metal wires propped up by wooden posts for our day to day survival.

I read through Vox Mundi's references, most of them contain very little substance, the second one is the only one with detailed information.   http://www.empcommission.org/docs/A2473-EMP_Commission-7MB.pdf

The rest basically just ramble on and on about the "threat".

If these references were meant to re-assure me that this situation is well planned for, I feel less assured now than I did before.

« Last Edit: September 29, 2020, 04:49:49 PM by harpy »

kassy

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Re: Near Term Human Extinction
« Reply #403 on: September 29, 2020, 11:22:43 PM »
Quote
Most of the energy directly released by a solar flare is in the form of electromagnetic radiation. ... Since the particles all travel at the speed of light -- 300,000 kilometers per second -- the solar flare energy takes 500 seconds to arrive at Earth -- a little more than eight minutes after it leaves the sun.

The flare was associated with a major coronal mass ejection (CME) that travelled directly toward Earth, taking 17.6 hours to make the 150 million kilometer (93 million mile) journey. Typical CMEs take several days to arrive at Earth, but it is believed that the relatively high speed of this CME was made possible by a prior CME

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/September_1859_geomagnetic_storm

The particles are not light particles so they are a lot slower.


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harpy

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Re: Near Term Human Extinction
« Reply #404 on: October 01, 2020, 07:44:21 PM »
From what I read, the Carrington event took place over more than a day.

My faith in the world's governments to react in time to something like that is negligible.

17 hours would likely be enough time for the military organizations to make preparations, but how much faith do we have that there's plans for all 400+ nuclear reactors, and other power plants for that matter?

Fukishima had all their equipment at ground level, and that power plant was built in an area where tsunami's occur frequently.  All their disel generators got flooded, because they couldn't be bothered to make the necessary preparations for a rare event.
« Last Edit: October 01, 2020, 07:50:01 PM by harpy »