Lets not forget the fact that we are destroying the biosphere as well. If yall really think we can just somehow escape collapse.... we cant.
How do you think phytoplankton communities will fare? What do you think has changed in ocean algal community resilience since diatoms emerged after the end-Permian?
You're making a lot of sweeping generalizations that you can't support. It's more interesting to dig into the details of what actually happens instead of just saying "X will collapse". Taking a more critical approach may allow you to evaluate the likelihood of claims like the 10C by 2026 graph you posted above.
Ask me what you want to know about any of these topics and I will give you the best answer I can. Want to know how 10 C would happen? Collapse will happen. Could be tommorow or 100 years. But our current way of living can’t last forever.
Okay, explain how collapse gives 2.5C GMSTA increase due to "fading away of the aerosol masking effect". Please cite actual papers.
Please explain how albedo changes in the Arctic give 1.6C GMSTA by 2026. Please cite actual papers. You are free to assume a seasonally ice free Arctic by 2026.
Please explain how Seafloor methane hydrates contribute 1.1C by 2026. Please cite actual papers. Emission rates as a function of time would be preferred.
Please explain how water vapor feedbacks yield 2.1C of warming by 2026. Please cite actual papers.
Also, please explain what 0.3C of "further feedbacks" in the image he provided is.
And for the record, I know what the actual ranges of some of these feedbacks are based on literature. I don't expect you'll find valid sources for some of these claims. I also think the onus is on the person making a claim to justify it, so if you want to post a picture of 10.02C GMSTA by 2026, back it up with evidence.
Water Vapor-
https://skepticalscience.com/water-vapor-greenhouse-gas.htmHow much does water vapor amplify CO2 warming? Studies show that water vapor feedback roughly doubles the amount of warming caused by CO2. So if there is a 1°C change caused by CO2, the water vapor will cause the temperature to go up another 1°C. When other feedback loops are included, the total warming from a potential 1°C change caused by CO2 is, in reality, as much as 3°C.
How much have we warmed from CO2? well most would agree its at least 1 C, so according to this you got another 2 C right there. As far as time scales go, basically once the warming affect of CO2 kicks in, you get more water vapor warming soon after. Which is scary because according to
http://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/9/12/124002 it takes about a decade for the CO2 warming to kick in. Think about it. We havent felt all the CO2 we have released in the last decade (which is a lot).
Seafloor Methane-
http://guardianlv.com/2013/11/global-warming-arctic-storms-releasing-methane/ A 50 GT release of methane could warm the planet 1 degree C or more (1.3 C). The 50 GT burp is highly possible at any time according to
https://www.newscientist.com/article/dn23923-huge-methane-belch-in-arctic-could-cost-60-trillion#.UpK05sS1ym4 . The methane is already being released,
https://www.nature.com/articles/ngeo2007 . Methane levels have been rising in the arctic. Thats just observation.
Albedo Changes-
https://www.the-cryosphere.net/10/477/2016/ The darkening of the Greenland ice sheet started becoming significantly less reflective of solar radiation from around 1996, with the ice absorbing 2% more solar energy per decade from this point. “Future darkening is likely underestimated. We all know im sure that snow and ice reflects radiation from the sun back into space. I havent looked into this part much so idk about the 1.6 C rise from Albedo ( not my predictions)
Further Feedback Loops-
https://phys.org/news/2013-02-sunlight-climate-warming-gas-arctic-permafrost.html ..Sunlight stimulates release of climate-warming gas from melting Arctic permafrost, study says...
http://science.sciencemag.org/content/340/6129/183 ...Speleothems Reveal 500,000-Year History of Siberian Permafrost ....
https://phys.org/news/2014-12-warmer-pacific-ocean-millions-tons.html#nRlv ....Warmer Pacific Ocean could release millions of tons of seafloor methane. Theres dozens more i could list. 0.3 C from that seems very conservative.
Aerosol Masking effect-
https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/cleaning-up-air-pollution-may-strengthen-global-warming/ The new study relied on four global climate models, which the researchers used to simulate the effects of removing all human-caused emissions of the major aerosols, including sulfate and carbon-based particles like soot. The resulting global warming, they concluded, would be anywhere from 0.5 to 1.1 degrees Celsius.
Lets all remember that science in general is very conservative.
Do the math. Instead of looking at individual aspects of Climate change, add everything together. Even with all this, we are not considering the biological annihilation we are causing on the planet, Ocean acidification, etc. Nuclear plants, war, disease, thats all another story
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I am not predicting a 10 C rise in 10 years, but rather about 4 C. Humans probably wont survive that kind of rise.
But hey! Maybe all this is just talk and we will survive. Which for you the readers information I support 100%. I dont want to die, and I want the world to be peaceful and happy. I got important people in my life, losing them and this amazing world would be horrible. Lets all remember just how lucky we are rn! At the end of the day, we are all connected to everything in the world.
Lets make the world a better place, regardless of the outcome!