Near Term Human Extinction

[Pmt111500]

Looks like we have some visitors from Stormfront posting.

Ah, those types? "Let's vote for Drumpf since Bannon isn't running"-types?  Too bad, bound to ideological denial of science, like the fact they carry African genes.

[ASILurker]

This lady says what is on my mind far better than I

I do not believe humanity will be able to wake up from the propaganda narrative matrix and create a healthy world without a massive shift in the way we think and perceive. While most tend to look at what is commonly called spiritual enlightenment as an esoteric religious concept, or at most a lofty personal aspiration, I see it as a powerful yet mundane agent of social metamorphosis with far-reaching political consequences.

The fact that it is possible for human beings to radically shift their relationship with thought means that it is possible for us to collectively transcend our current fear-based, easily manipulated relationship with the world and evolve into something unprecedented together. Our unprecedented ability to network and share information already in and of itself represents a drastic change in the way humans relate cognitively with the world, and there are reasons to believe a collective awakening could already be unfolding for us.

Simply the fact that enlightenment is a potential that human beings have, combined with the fact that we have pressed ourselves into evolve-or-die time, indicates such a collective transcendence is a very real possibility.

https://www.greanvillepost.com/2018/12/02/who-i-am-where-i-stand-and-what-im-trying-to-do-here/


Lurk369:Best of Bookmarks

[TerryM]

If this is your 'cup of tea'

International Extinction Rebellion
https://xrebellion.org/
INTERNATIONAL signup.
We Declare: International Non-Violent Rebellion Against the World’s Governments for Criminal Inaction on the Ecological Crisis.

A "cup of tea" or a glass of hemlock, what a choice.
Terry

[Tom_Mazanec]

Video: Will Climate Change Crisis End Civilization?
I think the word they are groping for is "yes".
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8a77yFGoP-U&feature=share

[oren]

Note the difference between the collapse of human civilization (quite possible, even probable in a few decades) and human extinction (very improbable IMHO).

[Tom_Mazanec]

Good point, Oren.
Exploring further, I found an old thread about the author. Perhaps neven could move the post there?
https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,701.0.html

[morganism]

Facing Extinction
by Catherine Ingram

https://www.catherineingram.com/facingextinction/

Because the subject is so tragic and because it can scare or anger people, this is not an essay I ever wanted to write; it is one I would have wanted to read along the way.  But the words on these pages are meant only for those who are ready for them. I offer no hope or solutions for our continuation, only companionship and empathy to you, the reader, who either knows or suspects that there is no hope or solution to be found. What we now need to find is courage.

[Tom_Mazanec]

Sam Carana is now defining "near term" as 2020 
http://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2019/12/extinction-in-2020.html

[TerryM]

That ain't "near term" that's now.
Terry

[Shared Humanity]

Sam Carana is now defining "near term" as 2020 
http://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2019/12/extinction-in-2020.html

Did not read the article but if he is suggesting this is a possibility then he is doing a great deal of damage in the discussion on climate change.

[blumenkraft]

This is the gist:

Finally, the red trend illustrates El Niño/La Niña variability. As discussed in a recent post, an El Niño is forecast for 2020 and this could be the catalyst to trigger huge methane releases from the Arctic Ocean.

And yes, with a strong El Niño in 2020 things could get extreme indeed.

Will it immediately erase mankind? Of course not.

Is this the beginning of the end of civilisation? Of course not, this point is way behind us.

Is this the moment people will realise? Maybe.

[Tom_Mazanec]

That ain't "near term" that's now.
Terry

Well, he wrote the article last month...

[Gray-Wolf]

Sadly a think a combination of paid deniers and the human propensity for looking on the bright side means a lot of folk still have their 'fight or flight' response packed away when it really ought to be being deployed?

For too many years I have held the opinion that it will take a large climate event that is relatable for many of the developed world's population to fully embrace the scale of the issues in front of us?

I am not wishing harm to any person but I do think that the corps most responsible for our ills have also kept many blissfully unaware of both the peril they are in and the continuation of those corps in the behaviours that see us in this pickle?

Until the People rise up in opposition I fear it will be B.A.U. right up until the elites man their bunkers/silos......

[TerryM]

^^
Ramen!
Terry

[Neven]

I'm replying to only part of a comment I've deleted:

I still can’t decide if CO2 is warming the planet

That means you're in the wrong place. Let us know when you decide.

[Tom_Mazanec]

I'm replying to only part of a comment I've deleted:

I still can’t decide if CO2 is warming the planet

That means you're in the wrong place. Let us know when you decide.

That’s like saying you haven’t decided if the sun warms the planet.

[gerontocrat]

I'm replying to only part of a comment I've deleted:

I still can’t decide if CO2 is warming the planet

That means you're in the wrong place. Let us know when you decide.

The Flat Earth Society always welcomes new members, and it's doing very well.

My personal speculation is that the rise of societies like this and all sorts of other weird and wonderful beliefs that defy logic, reason and facts might be due to an inner knowledge of what a terrible state the Blue Planet is in  (including us).

From the bbc....
https://www.sciencefocus.com/the-human-body/the-rise-of-the-flat-earthers/
The rise of the Flat Earthers

For more than 50 years, Gary Heather believed, unquestioningly, that the Earth is a globe. But one evening in August 2015, he was browsing YouTube at his home in Hampshire and found a video called Flat Earth Clues. He watched all two hours, five minutes and 43 seconds of the film – and he wished it was longer.

He describes the moment as a kind of awakening: “You’re having a cup of coffee, and you always have the same brand, and in your mind you think that brand is how coffee tastes. And then all of a sudden you have another brand of coffee, and at that moment you drink it, you instantly realise there are other flavours out there you didn’t know existed.”

Over the last three years, Heather has become a passionate Flat Earther, taking part in experiments to collect evidence calling into question the curvature of the Earth, and campaigning at Speakers’ Corner in Hyde Park. He’s far from alone. Heather co-organised the UK’s first ever Flat Earth Convention in April this year, which saw some 260 Flat Earthers descend on a hotel in Birmingham for three days, with other conferences planned this year in Denver, USA and Edmonton, Canada. The Flat Earth Society’s Twitter feed currently boasts over 60,000 followers.

[nanning]

My personal speculation is that the rise of societies like this and all sorts of other weird and wonderful beliefs that defy logic, reason and facts might be due to an inner knowledge of what a terrible state the Blue Planet is in  (including us).

In my view the people with low intelligence need intelligent leaders, and the example above just shows how people who cannot think for themselves are being led into all kinds of wild fantasy. There's no one anymore to correct them and they don't want to be corrected anymore.
I don't think there is 'inner knowledge'.

Apologies for off-topic post.

[TerryM]

Welcome back nanning!


We've missed your wisdom.


I'd read somewhere that the resurgence of Flat Earthers was promoted by the CIA in an effort to distract/shame those that disagreed with the official viewpoints they espouse. Probably BS, but it is a most unexpected diversion.


Those who believe that some "Cloud Hopper" will save us from what is undoubtedly our future are a problem we need to address sooner rather than later. American politicians are particularly vulnerable to attacks from this quarter.
Terry

[nanning]

Thanks Terry, heartwarming.

Question:
With "American politicians", do you mean those from the U.S.A.?

With "Cloud Hopper", do you mean the bejezus?   

[TerryM]

Thanks Terry, heartwarming.

Question:
With "American politicians", do you mean those from the U.S.A.?

With "Cloud Hopper", do you mean the bejezus? 

Yes to both.
I'm in the "Bible Belt" of Canada, and they're nowhere near as powerful politically when compared to anywhere I lived in California, Arizona, Oregon or Nevada.


In Nevada the Mormons wield the whip, everywhere else it's been the bejezus followers who demand adoration.


For most it's the God of the Gaps, and the narrowing of the gaps has lead to many aberrations. Ignorance of reality isn't a strong platform from which to build your faith, so denial of reality spreads unchecked through the flock.


Praying for rain while the prey loosen their purse strings was a wondrous racket until meteorologists shit in the well. It still plays well in Texas, but most just watch the nightly weather reports. Do women need to dress in Burkas, or do men need to learn some (minimal) self control? Do Governors need to pray for rain, or to build containment ponds?


Science has the learned answers. Religion claims revealed truths. How has that been working out? If prayer worked, Las Vegas would melt into the desert as asuredly as Lot's wife turned into salt. There are plenty of churches in Las Vegas, but if you want to hear sincerity in prayer, head to a high stakes crap table.


Australia isn't burning because Australians are bad people. Australia is burning in part because Australian's elected bad people. Don't elect the most pius, elect the more prescient.


Sorry if I'm preaching to the choir.
Terry

[vox_mundi]

It is 100 Seconds to Midnight
https://thebulletin.org/doomsday-clock/current-time/



Humanity continues to face two simultaneous existential dangers—nuclear war and climate change—that are compounded by a threat multiplier, cyber-enabled information warfare, that undercuts society’s ability to respond. The international security situation is dire, not just because these threats exist, but because world leaders have allowed the international political infrastructure for managing them to erode.

Civilization-ending nuclear war—whether started by design, blunder, or simple miscommunication—is a genuine possibility. Climate change that could devastate the planet is undeniably happening. And for a variety of reasons that include a corrupted and manipulated media environment, democratic governments and other institutions that should be working to address these threats have failed to rise to the challenge.

... This situation—two major threats to human civilization, amplified by sophisticated, technology-propelled propaganda—would be serious enough if leaders around the world were focused on managing the danger and reducing the risk of catastrophe. Instead, over the last two years, we have seen influential leaders denigrate and discard the most effective methods for addressing complex threats—international agreements with strong verification regimes—in favor of their own narrow interests and domestic political gain. By undermining cooperative, science- and law-based approaches to managing the most urgent threats to humanity, these leaders have helped to create a situation that will, if unaddressed, lead to catastrophe, sooner rather than later.

[gerontocrat]

It is 100 Seconds to Midnight
https://thebulletin.org/doomsday-clock/current-time/

Optimists

[be cause]

I just released myself from hospital after 4 days trying to stabilize my heart rate , stuck at over 160 bpm since Monday . All efforts short of a transplant have failed and now there is a clot trapped in my heart by it's crazy beat meaning some blood stagnated  . My personal extinction appears imminent . Getting rapidly closer to midnight ... b.c. (roy)

[oren]

Wow. Sorry to hear. I hope it gets sorted somehow.   

[vox_mundi]

I just released myself from hospital after 4 days trying to stabilize my heart rate , stuck at over 160 bpm since Monday . All efforts short of a transplant have failed and now there is a clot trapped in my heart by it's crazy beat meaning some blood stagnated  . My personal extinction appears imminent . Getting rapidly closer to midnight ... b.c. (roy)

I can relate b.c.

AV Node ReEntry Tachycardia - They've run out of places to ablate.

If NDE is a guide we've picked these situations for a purpose. It's also not our first time, or our last.

I hope your situation resolves itself. Good luck.

[Ktb]

Sorry to hear b.c. Know that we greatly appreciate all you have contributed to this forum.

[nanning]

Sorry to hear that be cause.
My advise for such circumstances: Don't give in to fear and enjoy intimate moments with loved ones. Browse through all your (shared) memories and try to smile. Crying is also good.

A virtual warm hug from me. I wish I could give you some of my health.

[Aporia_filia]

Big hug and love b.c.

[be cause]

agreed vox mundi .. I probably failed to appreciate the value of my nde.. I didn't change . I have , though , amassed a lot around around my 'other' lives .
 Today being a palindrome .. 02.02.2020 .. I see as a day of reflection and an opportunity . Last night I saw clearly for the first time in ages , having been distracted from my path . b.c.

[blumenkraft]

Stay there, on your path, Roy. All the very best to you fine sir.

[be cause]

Today .. 02.02.2020  .. the perfect date for reflection and change ..b.c.

 

[gerontocrat]

Hi b.c.

Only wishing for the best for you.

[be cause]

Thanks Geronocrat , Nanning et al ..

[Reallybigbunny]

Hi BC I don't post much but I do read a lot. Your contributions on this forum are much appreciated!

[KiwiGriff]

Interesting post on real climate.
 Denial and Alarmism in the Near-Term Extinction and Collapse Debate
http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2020/08/denial-and-alarmism-in-the-near-term-extinction-and-collapse-debate/?

[dnem]

It IS interesting, Kiwi. I think he is spot on when it comes to the methane bomb, 5 C, imminent runaway climate, near term extinction crowd. Their screeds are not grounded in the science and feed an unhelpful psychological response to the crisis.

That said, I don't think narrowing the focus to what the best climate science can tell us about how much warming we can expect over the next few decades fully captures the "mess of messes" the human endeavor finds itself it. Our overlapping crises are highly likely to lead to a steady increase in human suffering and erosion of wellbeing across the planet. The intertwined effects are likely to be nonlinear and difficult to predict. I'm not sure sober climate communicators like Mann and Hayoe (and the author of the RC piece) are capturing the perilousness of our predicament.

[morganism]

Siberian Island Enigma

https://www.archaeology.org/issues/394-2009/digs/8931-digs-siberia-por-bajin

In 2012, Japanese scientist Fusa Miyake identified two spikes in the carbon-14 levels present in tree rings of known age from dendrochronological archives—one in 775, and the other in 994. These surges, now called Miyake Events, were likely produced by massive bursts of cosmic radiation and can be seen in tree rings throughout the world. Por-Bajin was originally thought to have been built in 750 by Bayan-Chur Khan (r. 747–759), ruler of the Uighur Khaganate, and his Chinese princess wife. But this date, as well as the identification of the site as a palace, was based on an inscription found elsewhere. Earlier efforts at radiocarbon dating the larch beams that supported the clay structures were frustratingly inexact. “The problem with routine radiocarbon is precision,” says archaeologist Margot Kuitems of the University of Groningen. “You always end up with a range, usually a few decades. For some periods or monuments this may not matter as much, but for Por-Bajin, with all the questions surrounding it, you really do want to know when, exactly, it was built.”

 

Digs Mongolia Por Bajin Map(Ken Feisel) Kuitems was able to identify a Miyake Event in the forty-third ring of one of the wooden beams, but the real excitement came when she saw that it was only two rings away from the final ring, meaning that she could confidently conclude that the tree had been felled in 777. She was even able to determine that the tree had been cut down during a warm season, likely the spring, because the ring consisted only of so-called early wood, which is not formed during cold Siberian winters.

[kassy]

Please repost that in The Rest/Archeology. Thanks!
(It does not relate to human extinction of any kind).

[dnem]

There is a whole body of thought about how a huge solar storm could take down the electric grid and other aspects of modern life, leading to a failure of nuclear facility cooling and multiple meltdowns. Is that the link to NTE?

[harpy]

There is a whole body of thought about how a huge solar storm could take down the electric grid and other aspects of modern life, leading to a failure of nuclear facility cooling and multiple meltdowns. Is that the link to NTE?

Nuclear generating stations themselves, as at this point, may have some safety measures are in place to shut down outside of something truly catastrophic, like a nuclear detonation to a nuclear power plant.

If India/Pakistan decide to have a nuclear conflict, and a nuclear bomb is dropped on a nuclear power plant, the result would be worse than Chernobyl many times over.

[kassy]

There is a whole body of thought about how a huge solar storm could take down the electric grid and other aspects of modern life, leading to a failure of nuclear facility cooling and multiple meltdowns. Is that the link to NTE?

The cosmic radiation spikes are different. They are from much farther away so they do not have the intensity that a direct hit from a solar storm has.

So there is not a real link.

[harpy]

The poster clearly stated "solar storm", not "cosmic storm". 

"Solar Flare" is the commonly used term, see:  https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solar_flare

Solar storms do happen, and "we" will get another one like the Carrington event at some point.

Either way, the risk of nuclear melt down is in the spent fuel rod ponds.  Water must be continuously cooled, and if the methods of cooling the water is disrupted, the spent fuel rods will melt down.

Do a google search and see how long after the next Carrington Event we will need to keep getting deliveries of Diesel fuel to every nuclear facility to keep the water cool before the spent fuel rods are safe to remove.

[sidd]

Re: The cosmic radiation spikes are different. They are from much farther away so they do not have the intensity that a direct hit from a solar storm has.


Mmmm. Supernova or gamma ray burster close enuf could be worse.

sidd

[nanning]

harpy, as far as I know (not very much), if the fuel rods are in the water and the cooling fails, the operators would lower the graphite rods to stop the neutron avalanche and thus stopping the fission and heating.

[harpy]

The nuclear reactors themselves have multiple safety features, graphite rods being one of them.

As with the above post, the spent fuel rods must remain under water that is cooled, for a long period of time.

When the next Carrington event disrupts supply chains, will there be continuous supplies of fuel to every single nuclear power plant on Earth ?

[dnem]

The poster clearly stated "solar storm", not "cosmic storm". 

Just to be clear I meant a geomagnetic storm caused by a coronal mass ejection (CME) close to or larger than the 1859 Carrington Event.

[Tom_Mazanec]

The poster clearly stated "solar storm", not "cosmic storm". 

Just to be clear I meant a geomagnetic storm caused by a coronal mass ejection (CME) close to or larger than the 1859 Carrington Event.

Which we almost had a few years ago.

[kassy]

Those type of events will also melt all transformers so that would leave millions without electricity and with fried computers and phones.

Rebuilding from that will take a long time. Meanwhile the food in the fridge rots, at home and all the shops and warehouses.

PS: The carrington event took 17 hours to get here but usually it takes longer so there is time to shut down things.

[harpy]

17 hours more than time needed to shut down nuclear reactors. 

Again though, spent fuel rods must be in cooled ponds for long periods of time, will fresh supplies of diesel be delivered, to every nuclear spent fuel rod facility?