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Archimid

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Re: "Stupid" Questions :o
« Reply #1700 on: March 19, 2019, 03:20:11 PM »
When I see circulations like that I like to swicth the background to MSLP. The connection between the upper atmosphere and the surface are more clear that way.
I am an energy reservoir seemingly intent on lowering entropy for self preservation.

Gray-Wolf

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Re: "Stupid" Questions :o
« Reply #1701 on: March 19, 2019, 03:45:03 PM »
I think it well worth keeping an eye on the Polar Jet over the summer.

See how frequently wind speeds drop below 'Jet values' and so leave gaps in the flow?

I believed I've watched a weakening of the Polar Jet these past 2 decades allowing for a much more 'loopy' flow around our side of the world?

Last year ( ?) we saw a strand pass over the equator and on to S.Africa!

All on eyes on the Polar Night Jet for the upcoming final warming. It has made a brilliant recovery after the late December split/warming and is going great guns a.t.m.!
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wdmn

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Re: "Stupid" Questions :o
« Reply #1702 on: March 20, 2019, 11:30:19 PM »
How come it so often seems that the northern and southern hemispheres are inversely correlated when it comes to temperature anomaly?


b_lumenkraft

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Re: "Stupid" Questions :o
« Reply #1703 on: March 24, 2019, 10:01:43 AM »
Stratospheric warming is shown in GFS forecast (09.04).

Is this expected or very fast and unusual?

sark

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Re: "Stupid" Questions :o
« Reply #1704 on: March 24, 2019, 10:49:29 AM »
Stratospheric warming is shown in GFS forecast (09.04).

Is this expected or very fast and unusual?

Wikipedia on SSW:
The radiative cycle in the stratosphere means that during winter the mean flow is westerly and during summer it is easterly (westward). A final warming occurs on this transition, so that the polar vortex winds change direction for the warming, however do not change back until the following winter. This is because the stratosphere has entered the summer easterly phase. It is final because another warming cannot occur over the summer, so it is the final warming of the current winter.

But does the final warming usually come with displacement?

In the end, to me, and to others watching, whatever the observation of record is, the whole polar cell is destabilized and acting badly.  it's been gradually destabilizing for 20 years, the fact that it has become so elongated and stringy is now morphing into the fact that it's starting to be split & destabilized more often than not.  not good.  not good.

https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1029/2007JD009571
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b_lumenkraft

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Re: "Stupid" Questions :o
« Reply #1705 on: March 24, 2019, 10:55:28 AM »
Thanks a lot, Sark. :)

Rodius

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Re: "Stupid" Questions :o
« Reply #1706 on: April 09, 2019, 11:19:32 AM »
With the high (relative) levels of melting in the Arctic recently, the flooding that occurred in the NE USA, and the jet stream in that area..... I was wondering whether the water in the clouds came from the melting in the Arctic region, traveled South, then dropped it on the US?

It seems plausible in my head, but is that what happened?

b_lumenkraft

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Re: "Stupid" Questions :o
« Reply #1707 on: April 09, 2019, 11:57:34 AM »
With the high (relative) levels of melting in the Arctic recently, the flooding that occurred in the NE USA, and the jet stream in that area..... I was wondering whether the water in the clouds came from the melting in the Arctic region, travelled South, then dropped it on the US?

It seems plausible in my head, but is that what happened?

Not that i'm able to answer your question on scientific ground, but i can share an observation i've made.

There is massive evaporation happening where Arctic sea ice is driven into the warm waters near Svalbard. It seems very likely to me these clouds could hit NA. I think they are going east and would arrive in the US west.

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Niall Dollard

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Re: "Stupid" Questions :o
« Reply #1708 on: April 09, 2019, 05:11:11 PM »
The atmosphere contains vast amounts of moisture that can potentially fall as precipitation given the right conditions. But amount is greatest where temperatures are higher.

Interaction between cold and warm air masses all play a part but sources of intense rainfall are most likely from more southern climes.

Tor Bejnar

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Re: "Stupid" Questions :o
« Reply #1709 on: April 09, 2019, 06:37:02 PM »
Quote
... I was wondering whether the water in the clouds came from the melting in the Arctic region, travelled South, then dropped it on the US?
Further to what Niall wrote, from my regular reading of the Weather Underground Cat6 blog, I've learned that most extreme rain and snow events in the eastern quarter or third of the USA contain moisture largely derived from the Gulf of Mexico.  Typically, a jet stream loop drops down over western states, picks up moisture and dumps it (as far west as) from Texas to Nebraska and places east and north (or the whole thing is shifted eastwards).  The air, having gone over the Rockies [rising air cools, losing its ability to hold moisture], is generally depleted of the moisture it obtained from the Pacific.  As cold air can hold less moisture than warm air, Arctic-sourced air 'never' contains as much H2O as Gulf-sourced air.  (Note this is my understanding for most "extreme events"; I'm sure there is plenty of Pacific and Arctic sourced precipitation events in the north or northeast USA and eastern Canada.)

[Note: I am not a meteorologist by any stretch of any mind.]
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Rodius

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Re: "Stupid" Questions :o
« Reply #1710 on: April 10, 2019, 02:23:23 AM »
Thank you for answering.
My basic understanding is most heavy rain events come from the South, head North then fall as it cools.

One more question in relation to the recent flooding in the NE USA.
I am sorry if I have this wrong.
The jet stream seems to be coming from the Northern regions of the globe with jet stream heading South into the flooding zone. It looks like it is going to happen again.

In this event, how does the moisture head North when the jet stream is moving South?
It is because the jet stream is higher and moves independently to lower wind patterns and when the lower winds meet the higher winds, the large rain event occurs?

Tealight

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Re: "Stupid" Questions :o
« Reply #1711 on: April 10, 2019, 02:25:57 AM »
With the high (relative) levels of melting in the Arctic recently, the flooding that occurred in the NE USA, and the jet stream in that area..... I was wondering whether the water in the clouds came from the melting in the Arctic region, traveled South, then dropped it on the US?

It seems plausible in my head, but is that what happened?

The water generally comes from the warm & wet south, especially in spring. However without cold air from the Arctic the moisture wouldn't come down as heavily and cause flooding. The cold & dense air causes the warm & less dense air to rise, kind of like a mountain. As the warm air rises it cools, can't hold the moisture anymore and develops thick clouds & rain. On earth.nullschool.net I have often seen constant weather front change in the north eastern USA and south eastern Canada. A few days of warm & wet Atlantic air followed by cold air from the Arctic.

Good overview on wikipedia:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cold_front
« Last Edit: April 10, 2019, 02:43:54 AM by Tealight »

Rodius

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Re: "Stupid" Questions :o
« Reply #1712 on: April 10, 2019, 02:54:55 AM »
Tealight.... thanks, that explains it perfectly.

b_lumenkraft

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Re: "Stupid" Questions :o
« Reply #1713 on: April 11, 2019, 06:26:41 PM »
Does anyone know what causes these clockwise dancing foes?

Doesn't look like it's a gyre, or?

jdallen

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Re: "Stupid" Questions :o
« Reply #1714 on: April 11, 2019, 07:22:28 PM »
Does anyone know what causes these clockwise dancing foes?

Doesn't look like it's a gyre, or?
>:(
Looks to me like its either current or tidally driven.
« Last Edit: April 12, 2019, 06:48:22 PM by jdallen »
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uniquorn

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Re: "Stupid" Questions :o
« Reply #1715 on: April 12, 2019, 12:04:54 AM »
Does anyone know what causes these clockwise dancing foes?
Doesn't look like it's a gyre, or?
Thanks for taking the time to look at these short time scale movements b_
Perhaps you should start a new thread to store them. There are 2 warm currents from the atlantic that must meet somewhere near there (as well as all the cold stuff)
I looked up finally driven but only found mad at the end of it. :)

edit: over 1 day it's likely to be tidal
« Last Edit: April 12, 2019, 12:37:17 AM by uniquorn »

Niall Dollard

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Re: "Stupid" Questions :o
« Reply #1716 on: April 12, 2019, 12:29:50 AM »
I suspect these are tidal driven.

The tidal system in the Arctic is complex. There are semidiurnal tides caused by Atlantic forces and there are diurnal tides generated by astronomical forces.

Southeast of Svalbard is Bear Island. Individual ice floes have been seen to circle the island in a matter of days, due to the oscillating tides in that region.

The location pictured is further to the northeast - but it may have similar tidal effects to those around Bear Island.

b_lumenkraft

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Re: "Stupid" Questions :o
« Reply #1717 on: April 12, 2019, 07:13:00 AM »
Thank you so much guys for your answers.

I too suspected tidal forces/currents but still, it doesn't really explain the non-spinny circle movement.


tides caused by Atlantic forces

First time i hear about tidal forces caused by the Atlantic. I need to look this up, and foes circling Bear Island too. Great hints Niall.

Thanks for taking the time to look at these short time scale movements b_

No biggy mate. I find this stuff fascinating and when i find something like this it gives me dopamine. ;)

Will open a separate thread about it if i find more of those.

...or finally driven.

Hey J, Uniquorn and i don't understand that. Could you elaborate a litte what this means, please?

johnm33

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Re: "Stupid" Questions :o
« Reply #1718 on: April 12, 2019, 10:47:11 AM »
It's very close to the head of Santa Anna basin trough so maybe the waters from Kara are dropping into the basin trough hereabouts?

b_lumenkraft

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Re: "Stupid" Questions :o
« Reply #1719 on: April 12, 2019, 12:04:52 PM »
It's very close to the head of Santa Anna basin trough so maybe the waters from Kara are dropping into the basin trough hereabouts?

That makes sense to me. If waters would drop down here, i can imagine ripple effects on the surface looking like that.

But still, some kind of force needs to prevent a gyre evolving. If it was just water falling it would create a gyre like in a draining bathtub. And this does not look like a gyre at all to me. A gyre would produce a spiralling movement where foes on the outer edge would rotate faster than the ones on the inside. Here they move in a circle but all are making the same way.

How about this? There is a gyre, produced by falling waters, but the centre of the gyre is somewhere else (under closed sea ice). And what we see here are tidal forces that make up for the frequency, combined with a gyre somewhere else that could make them rotate.

Does that make sense to anyone or is this bogus?

johnm33

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Re: "Stupid" Questions :o
« Reply #1720 on: April 14, 2019, 11:15:58 PM »
I pretty much agree with that, how many images and over what period crossed my mind, but yes if the water begins to fall/drop into a trough it will organise itself according to it's rotational potential and once established, i imagine, like a tornado it will twist turn and move according to the medium it's passing through. Atlantic waters reaching this far north will have acquired quite a lot of torque since passing 600N, or if you will may not yet have lost the intrinsic torque of being about 1/2 the planets radius away from the axis of rotation [in much the same plane], which will be expressed as it's forced into a coherent stream.

Sebastian Jones

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Re: "Stupid" Questions :o
« Reply #1721 on: April 17, 2019, 05:55:24 AM »
OK, here is a stupid question:I am trying to upload a chart from my computer. I saved it as a png file, but each time I try to drag it into a post, nothing happens. It looks like this: I do know how to enter links, and images that are on the web, surely not all the amazing data posted to this forum comes from another web site? I do not really have access to a website where I can up load random stuff, or I'd do that and link from there. Please tell me there is a workable solution.... :-[

oren

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Re: "Stupid" Questions :o
« Reply #1722 on: April 17, 2019, 06:00:12 AM »
When posting, below the text box you need to click "attachments and other options".
Then under Attach choose your file. You can click more attachments to add more, up to a total of 4 per post. Enjoy.

Sebastian Jones

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Re: "Stupid" Questions :o
« Reply #1723 on: April 17, 2019, 08:00:49 AM »
When posting, below the text box you need to click "attachments and other options".
Then under Attach choose your file. You can click more attachments to add more, up to a total of 4 per post. Enjoy.
Thanks very much Oren! It even worked for me!

Hefaistos

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Re: "Stupid" Questions :o
« Reply #1724 on: April 19, 2019, 07:37:06 AM »
This is a reply to Tom Mazanecs question on the Club of Rome World model in another (now closed) thread:
Q "Does anyone know where to get this model to run on a Mac (or Windows, though mine is a Mac) computer?"
A: It was written in DYNAMO language, originally on main-frames etc. It was later ported to CP/M on Apple iirc. Don't know if it was ever ported to MS-DOS.
I was using it myself for some simulations in the 1980's. Hope this will help you as a start.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/DYNAMO_(programming_language)

oren

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Re: "Stupid" Questions :o
« Reply #1725 on: April 19, 2019, 07:44:52 AM »

Pmt111500

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Re: "Stupid" Questions :o
« Reply #1726 on: April 19, 2019, 07:53:21 AM »
This is a reply to Tom Mazanecs question on the Club of Rome World model in another (now closed) thread:
Q "Does anyone know where to get this model to run on a Mac (or Windows, though mine is a Mac) computer?"
A: It was written in DYNAMO language, originally on main-frames etc. It was later ported to CP/M on Apple iirc. Don't know if it was ever ported to MS-DOS.
I was using it myself for some simulations in the 1980's. Hope this will help you as a start.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/DYNAMO_(programming_language)
Thanks for some of the history of this ancient model in computing terms. I don't get why anyone would want to run this nowadays, betting there are way better models about which run on Linux faster, that's one that was in development some years back I've heard of. Maybe Tom should find out if Mac supports one of them. Anyway, the models use quite a lot of the computer's resources, so running them on background might not be possible. There was one beginner scientist blogger who did some simpler climate modelling with a pc set on linux, but the name escapes. But they're out there somewhere unless used and developped to be more entertaining in game industries.
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Sleepy

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Re: "Stupid" Questions :o
« Reply #1727 on: April 19, 2019, 08:04:59 AM »
Omnia mirari, etiam tritissima.
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Science is a jealous mistress and takes little account of a man's feelings.

piongain

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Re: "Stupid" Questions :o
« Reply #1728 on: April 20, 2019, 09:34:09 PM »
Hi all, i have a stupid question (if pushed i might have many more). Here goes. In thinking about feedback loops has it ever struck anybody as odd that the real whoppers all lean one direction? I know there's a few negative feedbacks but the ones worth writing home about just seem to be going one direction, reinforcing and amplifying each other instead of cancelling or balancing each other out. I'm not sure why that seems odd to me but it does, not in any sciency way but just in my good old fashioned gut. I'd find a great big counter weight or a monumental buffer so satisfying. There. There's more stupid where that came from if anybody is in the market.
« Last Edit: April 20, 2019, 09:48:34 PM by piongain »

oren

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Re: "Stupid" Questions :o
« Reply #1729 on: April 20, 2019, 10:46:14 PM »
Welcome piongain. There are actually some pretty big negative feedbacks, though they may not be helpful in the short term. Off the top of my head - the warmer the Earth becomes, the higher its black-body radiation, so an equilibrium of global warming is almost guaranteed at some far-off point.
In addition, humanity's immense overuse of resources has its own negative feedback - the coming collapse of industrial civilization when the resources run out and the environment goes out of whack, whichever comes first (I am betting on the environment).
I hope this make you feel better...

gerontocrat

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Re: "Stupid" Questions :o
« Reply #1730 on: April 20, 2019, 11:30:36 PM »
Welcome piongain. There are actually some pretty big negative feedbacks, though they may not be helpful in the short term. Off the top of my head - the warmer the Earth becomes, the higher its black-body radiation, so an equilibrium of global warming is almost guaranteed at some far-off point.
In addition, humanity's immense overuse of resources has its own negative feedback - the coming collapse of industrial civilization when the resources run out and the environment goes out of whack, whichever comes first (I am betting on the environment).
I hope this make you feel better...

I asked the same question of AbruptSLR - his answer is at https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,2205.msg193770.html#msg193770

But the -ve feedback whose name must not be spoken, i.e. the Lord Voldemort of mainstream environmental science, is, as Oren says "the coming collapse of industrial civilization when the resources run out". Climate change may be just the final nail in the coffin of Human civilisation as we know it.

Not good politics to say "We're doomed, we're all doomed", so it seems the message must be one of hope, i.e. there is still time to fix all the ooh nasties we are doing to the environment so most of the nasty stuff can be avoided.

Time will tell. But a lot has to happen a lot quicker than is happening now.

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kassy

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Re: "Stupid" Questions :o
« Reply #1731 on: April 21, 2019, 12:12:45 AM »
It´s not strange.

If you look at our recent geologic history our planet without glaciation is still the norm. Recently there was an interesting paper stating glaciation might be triggered by tectonics exposing rocks in tropical region. This increase weathering and draws down CO2.

As you know we are doing the reverse today quickly overloading the planet. Heating is quicker at high latitudes which is also were the remnant ice and permafrost is.

There are no negative feedbacks to help except the ones oren mentions but i don´t think the first one counts as a feedback...it´s just a law at work?




 
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Re: "Stupid" Questions :o
« Reply #1732 on: April 21, 2019, 06:51:21 AM »
Hello and welcome Piongain to the forum. :)

Imagine a dude rotating a ball on his fingertip. You know, like the basketball player do.

The ball is in an equilibrium state. Lots of things can happen that would cause the ball to drop, but there are only two things holding it there, the rotation and the finger directly at the rotation point.

sidd

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Re: "Stupid" Questions :o
« Reply #1733 on: April 21, 2019, 07:37:29 AM »
The biggest negative feedback is the T^4 radiative factor

Then you have ice/snow albedo but thats going away quick

then you have aerosol

rest is down in the noise

sidd

piongain

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Re: "Stupid" Questions :o
« Reply #1734 on: April 21, 2019, 08:34:54 AM »
Thanks for the welcomes and the replies. The feedbacks are what they are I suppose. I guess the whole thing was pretty finely balanced. Quite the achievement for an ape to nudge a planet.

pietkuip

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Re: "Stupid" Questions :o
« Reply #1735 on: April 21, 2019, 09:40:26 AM »
There are no negative feedbacks to help except the ones oren mentions but i don´t think the first one counts as a feedback...it´s just a law at work?
I agree, I would not count the Stefan-Boltzmann T^4 law as a feedback.

Right now Earth radiates slightly less infrared energy into space than what it absorbs from the Sun; this is melting the ice and warming the seas. But eventually those two components of radiation will be equal, also in a hothouse Earth, at the same levels as before. Just like they are equal on Venus.

So the melting will continue until all the ice is gone and the Earth and its upper atmosphere get warmer. And the rate of melting will increase because of the positive albedo feedback.

I guess the whole thing was pretty finely balanced. Quite the achievement for an ape to nudge a planet.
Yes. In comparison, the nudges from the Milankovic cycles were much more subtle than what we are doing.
« Last Edit: April 21, 2019, 10:07:35 AM by pietkuip »

Dharma Rupa

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Re: "Stupid" Questions :o
« Reply #1736 on: April 22, 2019, 02:02:27 PM »
It's been long enough now that I think we can safely say something happened in 2015.  I've been saying near the end of December, but from the looks of this it was more like the middle of the year. (Graph from https://sites.google.com/site/arctischepinguin/home/global-sea-ice)

My stupid question for the day is this:  What happened in 2015?

Klondike Kat

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Re: "Stupid" Questions :o
« Reply #1737 on: April 22, 2019, 02:39:53 PM »
I think that Stefan-Boltzmann does constitute a negative feedback, as an increase in the surface temperature, will result in an increase in outgoing radiation.  Other negative feedbacks include the carbon sinks; plant absorption and silicate weathering.  Any spelunker can attest to silicate weathering in the form of limestone deposits, although this is a very slow process of removing CO2 from the atmosphere.  Left alone, plants would remove CO2 at a much faster rate.  However, deforestation has been working against this feedback for centuries. 

The bigger, faster negative feedback is clouds.  We have already seen this in the Arctic, as increased couldiness has warmed the Arctic in the winter, and cooled it in the summer (although this is still speculative).  Clouds have always been a big contention and question mark in the entire equation.  Clouds do reduce heat loss, due largely to the water vapor contained within.  This is overpowered by the albedo effect, reflecting more incoming sunlight.  Whereas the net effect of increased atmospheric water vapor is to warm the surface, the net effect of increased cloudiness is to cool the surface.  This has the potential to be the biggest negative feedback loop.

DavidR

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Re: "Stupid" Questions :o
« Reply #1738 on: April 22, 2019, 03:12:07 PM »
It's been long enough now that I think we can safely say something happened in 2015.  I've been saying near the end of December, but from the looks of this it was more like the middle of the year. (Graph from https://sites.google.com/site/arctischepinguin/home/global-sea-ice)

My stupid question for the day is this:  What happened in 2015?
This graph shows the rankings for NSIDC global Extent since 2014. As you can see there was a major change in mid 2015 which agrees with your observation.  The global pattern closer resembles the Antarctic pattern.  My opinion is that  this was caused by the 2015-2016 El Nino which significantly increased Pacific water temperatures which have remained a lot warmer than average since then. This should have made it more difficult for ice to form in the southern hemisphere.   
Toto, I've a feeling we're not in Kansas anymore

oren

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Re: "Stupid" Questions :o
« Reply #1739 on: April 22, 2019, 04:47:11 PM »
I get the feeling something changed specifically in the Ross Sea sector, but I haven't tested this rigorously.

Archimid

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Re: "Stupid" Questions :o
« Reply #1740 on: April 22, 2019, 05:28:36 PM »
  This is overpowered by the albedo effect, reflecting more incoming sunlight. 

Source?

And while you are it, what is the effect of clouds on albedo during the Arctic night? (trick question)

I am an energy reservoir seemingly intent on lowering entropy for self preservation.

Klondike Kat

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Re: "Stupid" Questions :o
« Reply #1741 on: April 22, 2019, 05:49:18 PM »
  This is overpowered by the albedo effect, reflecting more incoming sunlight. 

Source?

And while you are it, what is the effect of clouds on albedo during the Arctic night? (trick question)

https://isccp.giss.nasa.gov/role.html

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Re: "Stupid" Questions :o
« Reply #1742 on: April 22, 2019, 06:17:25 PM »
  This is overpowered by the albedo effect, reflecting more incoming sunlight. 

Source?

And while you are it, what is the effect of clouds on albedo during the Arctic night? (trick question)
Trick question but an important answer. No effect on albedo but cloudy nights are warm nights.
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Archimid

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Re: "Stupid" Questions :o
« Reply #1743 on: April 22, 2019, 06:19:59 PM »
You claim that clouds are a positive effect in the Arctic because of albedo, but albedo only counts when there is sunlight. But you are so smart that instead of clarifying the interaction of clouds, albedo and the Arctic night you link to a page about clouds on a global scale. Total deflection.

Here is a better answer:

https://climate.nasa.gov/news/2449/new-insights-into-the-role-of-clouds-in-arctic-climate-change/

Quote
"If the clouds were to increase in summer, that would then slow down the rate of melting," Taylor said. "That has been the thinking for a lot of years."

However, Taylor has been finding that the role of clouds and sea ice for Arctic climate change may be more complex than previously hypothesized. Using CALIPSO-CloudSAT satellite observations spanning from 2006 to 2010, he showed that cloud concentrations differed between ocean and sea ice much less than previously thought in summer.

His findings, which also showed an increase in clouds during fall season, were published in the Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres

...

Clouds are a two-edged sword when it comes to climate change. They have both cooling and warming effects not just in the Arctic but across the entire planet. During the day, white and bright clouds reflect part of the sunlight hitting the planet back into space. At night, however, they act as a blanket that doesn't completely allow day-accumulated heat to escape into space.

This "blanket" mechanism is evident in just about any place on Earth.

"If you think about cold winter nights, normally the coldest ones we get have clear skies," Taylor said. "But if you have winter nights that actually have clouds, those tend to be a little warmer."

In the Arctic, this warming effect of clouds could influence sea ice during fall and winter, when the sun disappears for months and darker skies overlie oceans and land that spent an entire summer absorbing sunlight.



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Klondike Kat

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Re: "Stupid" Questions :o
« Reply #1744 on: April 22, 2019, 06:26:52 PM »
You claim that clouds are a positive effect in the Arctic because of albedo, but albedo only counts when there is sunlight. But you are so smart that instead of clarifying the interaction of clouds, albedo and the Arctic night you link to a page about clouds on a global scale. Total deflection.

Here is a better answer:

https://climate.nasa.gov/news/2449/new-insights-into-the-role-of-clouds-in-arctic-climate-change/

Quote
"If the clouds were to increase in summer, that would then slow down the rate of melting," Taylor said. "That has been the thinking for a lot of years."

However, Taylor has been finding that the role of clouds and sea ice for Arctic climate change may be more complex than previously hypothesized. Using CALIPSO-CloudSAT satellite observations spanning from 2006 to 2010, he showed that cloud concentrations differed between ocean and sea ice much less than previously thought in summer.

His findings, which also showed an increase in clouds during fall season, were published in the Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres

...

Clouds are a two-edged sword when it comes to climate change. They have both cooling and warming effects not just in the Arctic but across the entire planet. During the day, white and bright clouds reflect part of the sunlight hitting the planet back into space. At night, however, they act as a blanket that doesn't completely allow day-accumulated heat to escape into space.

This "blanket" mechanism is evident in just about any place on Earth.

"If you think about cold winter nights, normally the coldest ones we get have clear skies," Taylor said. "But if you have winter nights that actually have clouds, those tend to be a little warmer."

In the Arctic, this warming effect of clouds could influence sea ice during fall and winter, when the sun disappears for months and darker skies overlie oceans and land that spent an entire summer absorbing sunlight.

Yes, I was talking about clouds on a global scale.

Archimid

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Re: "Stupid" Questions :o
« Reply #1745 on: April 22, 2019, 07:15:28 PM »
If that makes you feel better go ahead and believe it. In the mean time I will clarify that clouds in the Arctic are not the negative feedback that could be inferred by KkK's post. He was "talking about" global clouds. ( His characterization is also wrong there but that is OT).

Clouds during winter warm the arctic and during summer cool the Arctic. Summer clouds have increased lightly and fall clouds have increase greatly.
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Klondike Kat

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Re: "Stupid" Questions :o
« Reply #1746 on: April 22, 2019, 07:47:29 PM »
If that makes you feel better go ahead and believe it. In the mean time I will clarify that clouds in the Arctic are not the negative feedback that could be inferred by KkK's post. He was "talking about" global clouds. ( His characterization is also wrong there but that is OT).

Clouds during winter warm the arctic and during summer cool the Arctic. Summer clouds have increased lightly and fall clouds have increase greatly.

Yes, clouds tend to be a climate moderator; warming in the coldest times and cooling during the warmest.  Hence, the overall effect in the Arctic would be warming (being one of the coldest regions), with the increased wintertime effect more than cancelling out the decreased summer effect.  The effect would be the opposite in more equatorial regions.  The linked NASA article claims that clouds have a net global cooling effect of 5C (compared to blue sky), is that the characterization you believe is wrong?

Archimid

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Re: "Stupid" Questions :o
« Reply #1747 on: April 22, 2019, 08:45:11 PM »

Yes, clouds tend to be a climate moderator; warming in the coldest times and cooling during the warmest.  Hence, the overall effect in the Arctic would be warming (being one of the coldest regions), with the increased wintertime effect more than cancelling out the decreased summer effect.  The effect would be the opposite in more equatorial regions.  The linked NASA article claims that clouds have a net global cooling effect of 5C (compared to blue sky), is that the characterization you believe is wrong?
.

I believe you got it mostly right this time, although your simplification is misleading. At least you are not claiming "The bigger, faster negative feedback is clouds. " for the Arctic anymore.

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Klondike Kat

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Re: "Stupid" Questions :o
« Reply #1748 on: April 22, 2019, 09:08:55 PM »

Yes, clouds tend to be a climate moderator; warming in the coldest times and cooling during the warmest.  Hence, the overall effect in the Arctic would be warming (being one of the coldest regions), with the increased wintertime effect more than cancelling out the decreased summer effect.  The effect would be the opposite in more equatorial regions.  The linked NASA article claims that clouds have a net global cooling effect of 5C (compared to blue sky), is that the characterization you believe is wrong?
.

I believe you got it mostly right this time, although your simplification is misleading. At least you are not claiming "The bigger, faster negative feedback is clouds. " for the Arctic anymore.

Never was.

VaughnAn

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Re: "Stupid" Questions :o
« Reply #1749 on: April 23, 2019, 04:45:50 AM »
Paul Beckwith has posted a video about nitrous oxide where he discusses Methane as well.  the Kyoto Protocol has a global warming potential for Nitrous oxide at 298x carbon dioxide with which Paul Beckwith discusses.  His assessment of Nitrous oxide agrees with this number however he thinks that considerably more nitrous oxide is being released from the Arctic region.

However, his numbers for warming for methane are a carbon dioxide warming potential closer to 150x over the very near term(1-3 years) and agree with the Kyoto number of 25 times the global warming potential over the long term.

Since we appear to be facing an immediate short term effect from methane of 150 times the carbon dioxide warming potential, would it not be more accurate to use the 150X number for methane over the short term?  In other words would it not be more accurate to say "figure the global warming potential for methane over the next 3 years by using the 150X number?  Given that methane concentration is increasing and will likely increase or at least stay stable for the near future might we also be more accurate to use the 150x number at least in the near term? 

If we use the 150 X number this pushes the near term CO2e from methane to 270 to 280 ppm CO2e.  This would raise the near term CO2e to near 720ppm CO2e.  This, if my thinking isn't totally off, would explain why many climate models forecasting temperature increases and climate change effects have been too conservative.  Also, are the short term effects of methane discussed anywhere else?



Also, considering the increase in nitrous oxide emissions from the Arctic and the near term methane potential to be much greater than currently being used, shouldn't this cause a much greater concern for short term climate responses?