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Author Topic: "Stupid" Questions :o  (Read 404561 times)

Archimid

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Re: "Stupid" Questions :o
« Reply #1700 on: March 19, 2019, 03:20:11 PM »
When I see circulations like that I like to swicth the background to MSLP. The connection between the upper atmosphere and the surface are more clear that way.
I am an energy reservoir seemingly intent on lowering entropy for self preservation.

Gray-Wolf

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Re: "Stupid" Questions :o
« Reply #1701 on: March 19, 2019, 03:45:03 PM »
I think it well worth keeping an eye on the Polar Jet over the summer.

See how frequently wind speeds drop below 'Jet values' and so leave gaps in the flow?

I believed I've watched a weakening of the Polar Jet these past 2 decades allowing for a much more 'loopy' flow around our side of the world?

Last year ( ?) we saw a strand pass over the equator and on to S.Africa!

All on eyes on the Polar Night Jet for the upcoming final warming. It has made a brilliant recovery after the late December split/warming and is going great guns a.t.m.!
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wdmn

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Re: "Stupid" Questions :o
« Reply #1702 on: March 20, 2019, 11:30:19 PM »
How come it so often seems that the northern and southern hemispheres are inversely correlated when it comes to temperature anomaly?


b_lumenkraft

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Re: "Stupid" Questions :o
« Reply #1703 on: March 24, 2019, 10:01:43 AM »
Stratospheric warming is shown in GFS forecast (09.04).

Is this expected or very fast and unusual?

sark

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Re: "Stupid" Questions :o
« Reply #1704 on: March 24, 2019, 10:49:29 AM »
Stratospheric warming is shown in GFS forecast (09.04).

Is this expected or very fast and unusual?

Wikipedia on SSW:
The radiative cycle in the stratosphere means that during winter the mean flow is westerly and during summer it is easterly (westward). A final warming occurs on this transition, so that the polar vortex winds change direction for the warming, however do not change back until the following winter. This is because the stratosphere has entered the summer easterly phase. It is final because another warming cannot occur over the summer, so it is the final warming of the current winter.

But does the final warming usually come with displacement?

In the end, to me, and to others watching, whatever the observation of record is, the whole polar cell is destabilized and acting badly.  it's been gradually destabilizing for 20 years, the fact that it has become so elongated and stringy is now morphing into the fact that it's starting to be split & destabilized more often than not.  not good.  not good.

https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1029/2007JD009571
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b_lumenkraft

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Re: "Stupid" Questions :o
« Reply #1705 on: March 24, 2019, 10:55:28 AM »
Thanks a lot, Sark. :)

Rodius

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Re: "Stupid" Questions :o
« Reply #1706 on: April 09, 2019, 11:19:32 AM »
With the high (relative) levels of melting in the Arctic recently, the flooding that occurred in the NE USA, and the jet stream in that area..... I was wondering whether the water in the clouds came from the melting in the Arctic region, traveled South, then dropped it on the US?

It seems plausible in my head, but is that what happened?

b_lumenkraft

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Re: "Stupid" Questions :o
« Reply #1707 on: April 09, 2019, 11:57:34 AM »
With the high (relative) levels of melting in the Arctic recently, the flooding that occurred in the NE USA, and the jet stream in that area..... I was wondering whether the water in the clouds came from the melting in the Arctic region, travelled South, then dropped it on the US?

It seems plausible in my head, but is that what happened?

Not that i'm able to answer your question on scientific ground, but i can share an observation i've made.

There is massive evaporation happening where Arctic sea ice is driven into the warm waters near Svalbard. It seems very likely to me these clouds could hit NA. I think they are going east and would arrive in the US west.

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Niall Dollard

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Re: "Stupid" Questions :o
« Reply #1708 on: April 09, 2019, 05:11:11 PM »
The atmosphere contains vast amounts of moisture that can potentially fall as precipitation given the right conditions. But amount is greatest where temperatures are higher.

Interaction between cold and warm air masses all play a part but sources of intense rainfall are most likely from more southern climes.

Tor Bejnar

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Re: "Stupid" Questions :o
« Reply #1709 on: April 09, 2019, 06:37:02 PM »
Quote
... I was wondering whether the water in the clouds came from the melting in the Arctic region, travelled South, then dropped it on the US?
Further to what Niall wrote, from my regular reading of the Weather Underground Cat6 blog, I've learned that most extreme rain and snow events in the eastern quarter or third of the USA contain moisture largely derived from the Gulf of Mexico.  Typically, a jet stream loop drops down over western states, picks up moisture and dumps it (as far west as) from Texas to Nebraska and places east and north (or the whole thing is shifted eastwards).  The air, having gone over the Rockies [rising air cools, losing its ability to hold moisture], is generally depleted of the moisture it obtained from the Pacific.  As cold air can hold less moisture than warm air, Arctic-sourced air 'never' contains as much H2O as Gulf-sourced air.  (Note this is my understanding for most "extreme events"; I'm sure there is plenty of Pacific and Arctic sourced precipitation events in the north or northeast USA and eastern Canada.)

[Note: I am not a meteorologist by any stretch of any mind.]
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Rodius

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Re: "Stupid" Questions :o
« Reply #1710 on: April 10, 2019, 02:23:23 AM »
Thank you for answering.
My basic understanding is most heavy rain events come from the South, head North then fall as it cools.

One more question in relation to the recent flooding in the NE USA.
I am sorry if I have this wrong.
The jet stream seems to be coming from the Northern regions of the globe with jet stream heading South into the flooding zone. It looks like it is going to happen again.

In this event, how does the moisture head North when the jet stream is moving South?
It is because the jet stream is higher and moves independently to lower wind patterns and when the lower winds meet the higher winds, the large rain event occurs?

Tealight

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Re: "Stupid" Questions :o
« Reply #1711 on: April 10, 2019, 02:25:57 AM »
With the high (relative) levels of melting in the Arctic recently, the flooding that occurred in the NE USA, and the jet stream in that area..... I was wondering whether the water in the clouds came from the melting in the Arctic region, traveled South, then dropped it on the US?

It seems plausible in my head, but is that what happened?

The water generally comes from the warm & wet south, especially in spring. However without cold air from the Arctic the moisture wouldn't come down as heavily and cause flooding. The cold & dense air causes the warm & less dense air to rise, kind of like a mountain. As the warm air rises it cools, can't hold the moisture anymore and develops thick clouds & rain. On earth.nullschool.net I have often seen constant weather front change in the north eastern USA and south eastern Canada. A few days of warm & wet Atlantic air followed by cold air from the Arctic.

Good overview on wikipedia:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cold_front
« Last Edit: April 10, 2019, 02:43:54 AM by Tealight »

Rodius

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Re: "Stupid" Questions :o
« Reply #1712 on: April 10, 2019, 02:54:55 AM »
Tealight.... thanks, that explains it perfectly.

b_lumenkraft

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Re: "Stupid" Questions :o
« Reply #1713 on: April 11, 2019, 06:26:41 PM »
Does anyone know what causes these clockwise dancing foes?

Doesn't look like it's a gyre, or?

jdallen

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Re: "Stupid" Questions :o
« Reply #1714 on: April 11, 2019, 07:22:28 PM »
Does anyone know what causes these clockwise dancing foes?

Doesn't look like it's a gyre, or?
>:(
Looks to me like its either current or tidally driven.
« Last Edit: April 12, 2019, 06:48:22 PM by jdallen »
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uniquorn

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Re: "Stupid" Questions :o
« Reply #1715 on: April 12, 2019, 12:04:54 AM »
Does anyone know what causes these clockwise dancing foes?
Doesn't look like it's a gyre, or?
Thanks for taking the time to look at these short time scale movements b_
Perhaps you should start a new thread to store them. There are 2 warm currents from the atlantic that must meet somewhere near there (as well as all the cold stuff)
I looked up finally driven but only found mad at the end of it. :)

edit: over 1 day it's likely to be tidal
« Last Edit: April 12, 2019, 12:37:17 AM by uniquorn »

Niall Dollard

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Re: "Stupid" Questions :o
« Reply #1716 on: April 12, 2019, 12:29:50 AM »
I suspect these are tidal driven.

The tidal system in the Arctic is complex. There are semidiurnal tides caused by Atlantic forces and there are diurnal tides generated by astronomical forces.

Southeast of Svalbard is Bear Island. Individual ice floes have been seen to circle the island in a matter of days, due to the oscillating tides in that region.

The location pictured is further to the northeast - but it may have similar tidal effects to those around Bear Island.

b_lumenkraft

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Re: "Stupid" Questions :o
« Reply #1717 on: April 12, 2019, 07:13:00 AM »
Thank you so much guys for your answers.

I too suspected tidal forces/currents but still, it doesn't really explain the non-spinny circle movement.


tides caused by Atlantic forces

First time i hear about tidal forces caused by the Atlantic. I need to look this up, and foes circling Bear Island too. Great hints Niall.

Thanks for taking the time to look at these short time scale movements b_

No biggy mate. I find this stuff fascinating and when i find something like this it gives me dopamine. ;)

Will open a separate thread about it if i find more of those.

...or finally driven.

Hey J, Uniquorn and i don't understand that. Could you elaborate a litte what this means, please?

johnm33

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Re: "Stupid" Questions :o
« Reply #1718 on: April 12, 2019, 10:47:11 AM »
It's very close to the head of Santa Anna basin trough so maybe the waters from Kara are dropping into the basin trough hereabouts?

b_lumenkraft

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Re: "Stupid" Questions :o
« Reply #1719 on: April 12, 2019, 12:04:52 PM »
It's very close to the head of Santa Anna basin trough so maybe the waters from Kara are dropping into the basin trough hereabouts?

That makes sense to me. If waters would drop down here, i can imagine ripple effects on the surface looking like that.

But still, some kind of force needs to prevent a gyre evolving. If it was just water falling it would create a gyre like in a draining bathtub. And this does not look like a gyre at all to me. A gyre would produce a spiralling movement where foes on the outer edge would rotate faster than the ones on the inside. Here they move in a circle but all are making the same way.

How about this? There is a gyre, produced by falling waters, but the centre of the gyre is somewhere else (under closed sea ice). And what we see here are tidal forces that make up for the frequency, combined with a gyre somewhere else that could make them rotate.

Does that make sense to anyone or is this bogus?

johnm33

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Re: "Stupid" Questions :o
« Reply #1720 on: April 14, 2019, 11:15:58 PM »
I pretty much agree with that, how many images and over what period crossed my mind, but yes if the water begins to fall/drop into a trough it will organise itself according to it's rotational potential and once established, i imagine, like a tornado it will twist turn and move according to the medium it's passing through. Atlantic waters reaching this far north will have acquired quite a lot of torque since passing 600N, or if you will may not yet have lost the intrinsic torque of being about 1/2 the planets radius away from the axis of rotation [in much the same plane], which will be expressed as it's forced into a coherent stream.

Sebastian Jones

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Re: "Stupid" Questions :o
« Reply #1721 on: April 17, 2019, 05:55:24 AM »
OK, here is a stupid question:I am trying to upload a chart from my computer. I saved it as a png file, but each time I try to drag it into a post, nothing happens. It looks like this: I do know how to enter links, and images that are on the web, surely not all the amazing data posted to this forum comes from another web site? I do not really have access to a website where I can up load random stuff, or I'd do that and link from there. Please tell me there is a workable solution.... :-[

oren

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Re: "Stupid" Questions :o
« Reply #1722 on: April 17, 2019, 06:00:12 AM »
When posting, below the text box you need to click "attachments and other options".
Then under Attach choose your file. You can click more attachments to add more, up to a total of 4 per post. Enjoy.

Sebastian Jones

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Re: "Stupid" Questions :o
« Reply #1723 on: April 17, 2019, 08:00:49 AM »
When posting, below the text box you need to click "attachments and other options".
Then under Attach choose your file. You can click more attachments to add more, up to a total of 4 per post. Enjoy.
Thanks very much Oren! It even worked for me!