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Glen Koehler

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Re: "Stupid" Questions :o
« Reply #3050 on: February 09, 2020, 12:56:31 AM »
     In something like RCP8.5, where the 8.5 is watts per square meter IIRC, how do you translate that to equilibrium temperature change?
     In a 2012 article by James Hansen et al. using an energy balance perspective to describe global warming, they state that each 1 watt/m2 of extra energy translates into about 0.75C warming once temperature has reached equilibrium.  But reaching equilibrium takes a long time (more than decades, call it 200 years if you want a number). 

    RCP8.5 refers to 8.5 watts/m2 by 2100.  So based on that ratio the RCP8.5 scenario should lead to ca. 6C warming.  But charts by IPCC, Global Carbon project, etc. show the RCP8.5 scenario global average surface temperature anomaly over preindustrial (when CO2 was ca. 278ppm vs ca. 1200ppm at 2100 in RCP8.5) as 3.2 to 5.4C, with a median estimate of 4.3C.  That is less than 6 because of the lag.  Thus, if CO2e stayed at 1200ppm for a long time, the temperature would gradually approach the +6C level over time.

   At least that is how I understand it from a "not a climate scientist" perspective.  The immediate temperature response (TCR - transient climate response) is substantially less than the long term equilibrium temperature response (ECS - equilibrium climate sensitivity).

   Some things to note - there has been some interesting commentary within the last few weeks about overuse/misuse of the RCP8.5 high end emissions scenario.  Hausfather and Peters recently published a commentary, which led to more commentaries by Michael Mann etc.  Among other things, RCP8.5 is quite unrealistic with an assumption of rapidly increasing coal consumption out to 2100. 

   There is consensus that RCP8.5 is an unlikely scenario, and Hausfather and Peters make the point that scientists should not point to that as the basis for future projections.  An article last summer also pointed out that RCP8.5 was never intended for how is too often used, i.e. as a prediction of what will happen. 

    But while there is consensus that RCP8.5 is not a forecast of what will be, there is recognition that it is also still within the realm of plausible outcomes and shouldn't be completely disregarded, especially as new observations and research find reinforcing (aka "positive") feedback mechanisms that are either previously unknown, more vigorous than previously estimated, or not represented in the previous generation of climate models.  There is also consensus that reducing the attention given to RCP8.5 in no way argues against the immediacy or severity of the climate crisis. See Michael Mann's short commentary to hear from somebody who actually knows this stuff
http://redgreenandblue.org/2020/02/05/michael-mann-just-bad-climate-change-kept-business-usual/ 
    (note - the chart Mann uses shows upper emissions curve from SSP85 not RCP8.5, with 2100 temperature anomaly at a rounded off 5C instead of the RCP8.5 median temp. of 4.3).

    If you want to really freak out, read about the first versions of new batch of CMIP6 climate models generating an ECS much higher than the previous generation.  Only a small portion of the CMIP6 models have published output yet, so this is still a developing story.  And experts seem to think that it is more likely a bias in the first implementations of the CMIP6 models than a new discovery of much higher sensitivity of the climate system to our CO2 highjinks.  But it also suggests that our understanding and best estimate of ECS (as measured by a doubling of CO2 after rising 1% per year) is not likely to go down with the new models. 
« Last Edit: February 09, 2020, 09:40:20 PM by Glen Koehler »

binntho

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Re: "Stupid" Questions :o
« Reply #3051 on: February 09, 2020, 08:57:42 AM »
  If you want to really freak out, read about the first versions of new batch of CMIP6 climate models generating an ECS much higher than the previous generation.  Only a small portion of the CMIP6 models have published output yet, so this is still a developing story.

One at least of the reasons for the higher equilibrium of the new model runs is the inclusion of more robust data on cloud formation - by far the biggest unknown in the whole AGW saga. It turns out that rather than being neutral, cloud formation could well be a positive reinforcement in a warmer world.

An excellent overview is here, from a Yale Universtiy on-line publication.
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karl dubhe2

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Re: "Stupid" Questions :o
« Reply #3052 on: February 09, 2020, 04:12:26 PM »
Karl, have you, by chance, changed the theme?

There are themes?    :o

No, I've not looked at the settings at all.   Maybe something in my own system has glitched.   I'll try to mess with them now, maybe it's something in there.   :)

On edit; that did the trick. thanks.  :)
« Last Edit: February 11, 2020, 02:32:44 PM by karl dubhe2 »

Alexander555

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Re: "Stupid" Questions :o
« Reply #3053 on: February 09, 2020, 06:23:04 PM »
If the Corona virus can survive for 9 days. And you order something on-line. And lets say that somebody sniezes on your stuff just before they ship it. It will be anywhere in half a day. Would it be able to survive the conditions in a airplaine ?

binntho

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Re: "Stupid" Questions :o
« Reply #3054 on: February 09, 2020, 06:28:24 PM »
If the Corona virus can survive for 9 days. And you order something on-line. And lets say that somebody sniezes on your stuff just before they ship it. It will be anywhere in half a day. Would it be able to survive the conditions in a airplaine ?

Well, I'd give it a try if you're really that curious. Order some used facemasks from the Wuhan hospital and breath through them while sleeping, and see what happens.
because a thing is eloquently expressed it should not be taken to be as necessarily true
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Alexander555

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Re: "Stupid" Questions :o
« Reply #3055 on: February 09, 2020, 06:37:44 PM »
It does likes cold conditions. And it's not warm in these transporters, something like 7 degree celcius.

nanning

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Re: "Stupid" Questions :o
« Reply #3056 on: February 10, 2020, 08:44:23 AM »
In my understanding, the humidity during transport is also important. If it's drying out the virus will likely not 'survive'.
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binntho

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Re: "Stupid" Questions :o
« Reply #3057 on: February 10, 2020, 09:05:08 AM »
I wonder if there is any limit to the stupidity, I guess not. The Internet is simply bristling with information, here is what the World Health Organisation has to say about receiving packages from China:

Quote
Yes, it is safe. People receiving packages from China are not at risk of contracting the new coronavirus. From previous analysis, we know coronaviruses do not survive long on objects, such as letters or packages.
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Archimid

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Re: "Stupid" Questions :o
« Reply #3058 on: February 10, 2020, 01:10:21 PM »
Quote
Yes, it is safe. People receiving packages from China are not at risk of contracting the new coronavirus. From previous analysis, we know coronaviruses do not survive long on objects, such as letters or packages.

There was no way for the WHO to say that with any good scientific certainty before the 9 day study came out. The only reason to say such a thing would be that typically bugs do not survive longer than 24hrs without a host. Leaving it up after the many up revisions on the infectiveness of this bug is irresponsible.

If it can survive for 9 days, it may survive shipping.

I'm not saying it will survive it, but it is unscientific to declare packages safe given the evidence. The certainty used in that page  SCREAMS politics and unscientific thinking. True science speaks in terms of uncertainty.
I am an energy reservoir seemingly intent on lowering entropy for self preservation.

karl dubhe2

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Re: "Stupid" Questions :o
« Reply #3059 on: February 10, 2020, 02:23:56 PM »
Quote
Yes, it is safe. People receiving packages from China are not at risk of contracting the new coronavirus. From previous analysis, we know coronaviruses do not survive long on objects, such as letters or packages.



If it can survive for 9 days, it may survive shipping.

I'

Erm, I do believe that they said it might take up to two weeks before the symptoms start to show, that would mean the bug's inside a person during that time.  Not on a package that gets put on a plane, or in a ship, then transported overseas.   Different kettles of fish, man.   :)

Tom_Mazanec

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Re: "Stupid" Questions :o
« Reply #3060 on: February 10, 2020, 02:24:27 PM »
Would microwaving anything sent from China (unless that would damage it) do any good to make extra sure it is safe?
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binntho

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Re: "Stupid" Questions :o
« Reply #3061 on: February 10, 2020, 02:30:48 PM »
Would microwaving anything sent from China (unless that would damage it) do any good to make extra sure it is safe?
And how on earth would we know? Is this forum suddenly authoritative on virus pandemics and microbiology? My totally uninformed guess is that microwaving would make no difference, unless you soaked the package in water first (microwaves only work on water molecules), probably a good idea to deep-freeze it afterwards in 100 proof Tennesse whiskey!
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gandul

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Re: "Stupid" Questions :o
« Reply #3062 on: February 10, 2020, 02:34:04 PM »
Would microwaving anything sent from China (unless that would damage it) do any good to make extra sure it is safe?

This is a stupid question indeed.

I would recommend not to microwave anything sent from China unless you want to learn a posteriori if it was safe for the microwave and for the item in question. Chances are you are going to burn some stuff  to keep safe from viruses.

blumenkraft

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Re: "Stupid" Questions :o
« Reply #3063 on: February 10, 2020, 02:34:42 PM »
And how on earth would we know?

Why would you answer if you don't know the answer, Binntho?
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blumenkraft

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Re: "Stupid" Questions :o
« Reply #3064 on: February 10, 2020, 02:36:58 PM »
This is a stupid question indeed.

If the question is so stupid, the answer is obvious, right?

Can you point me to a study giving this obvious answer?

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gandul

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Re: "Stupid" Questions :o
« Reply #3065 on: February 10, 2020, 03:01:34 PM »
This is a stupid question indeed.

If the question is so stupid, the answer is obvious, right?

Can you point me to a study giving this obvious answer?

I gave my best answer to a question that really fits into this thread.

Don't microwave any mechandise, it is a lot of energy that either is going to heat up something containing water, or is going to create electrical arcs with metallic stuff, and burn paper and plastic around or nearby.

And while your kitchen happily burns perhaps the virus survives, who knows

blumenkraft

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Re: "Stupid" Questions :o
« Reply #3066 on: February 10, 2020, 03:10:38 PM »
... who knows

So, you don't?

Tom included the 'unless that would damage it' part on purpose i guess.


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dnem

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Re: "Stupid" Questions :o
« Reply #3067 on: February 10, 2020, 03:28:33 PM »
I would think that wearing gloves and wiping down the surfaces of the package with alcohol wipes as you opened it would be more effective, if you were concerned. Bag up the waste and wash up well after you are done.

Archimid

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Re: "Stupid" Questions :o
« Reply #3068 on: February 10, 2020, 03:48:53 PM »
Quote
Erm, I do believe that they said it might take up to two weeks before the symptoms start to show, that would mean the bug's inside a person during that time.

That's a different thing. In the human body, incubation can take up to 14 days. Outside of a warm and wet host, coronavirus can last 9 days.

Persistence of coronaviruses on inanimate surfaces and its inactivation with biocidal agents

https://www.journalofhospitalinfection.com/article/S0195-6701(20)30046-3/fulltext

Quote
currently, the emergence of a novel human coronavirus, temporary named 2019-nCoV, has become a global health concern causing severe respiratory tract infections in humans. Human-to-human transmissions have been described with incubation times between 2-10 days, facilitating its spread via droplets, contaminated hands or surfaces. We therefore reviewed the literature on all available information about the persistence of human and veterinary coronaviruses on inanimate surfaces as well as inactivation strategies with biocidal agents used for chemical disinfection, e.g. in healthcare facilities. The analysis of 22 studies reveals that human coronaviruses such as Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS) coronavirus, Middle East Respiratory Syndrome (MERS) coronavirus or endemic human coronaviruses (HCoV) can persist on inanimate surfaces like metal, glass or plastic for up to 9 days, but can be efficiently inactivated by surface disinfection procedures with 62-71% ethanol, 0.5% hydrogen peroxide or 0.1% sodium hypochlorite within 1 minute. Other biocidal agents such as 0.05-0.2% benzalkonium chloride or 0.02% chlorhexidine digluconate are less effective. As no specific therapies are available for 2019-nCoV, early containment and prevention of further spread will be crucial to stop the ongoing outbreak and to control this novel infectious thread.

It is important to know that just a quick wipe is not enough. The effective chemicals may evaporate before the spot is sterile. The chance that a wipe misses its target is very high. There must be soaking for at least 30 seconds, a minute is better.
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oren

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Re: "Stupid" Questions :o
« Reply #3069 on: February 10, 2020, 04:55:57 PM »
Tom - wipe it with alcohol, but please don't microwave it. Remember the chance of infection from a dry air-shippped package is quite low, so don't overworry yourself beyond exercising basic caution.
Hereabouts there is no problem - packages from China take a month or two (or three) to arrive. Yay.

nanning

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Re: "Stupid" Questions :o
« Reply #3070 on: February 10, 2020, 05:39:25 PM »
Tom, have you googled it before you made another "what about this?" - post?

I personally find it a bit irritating that you post many of those kinds of questions and you don't seem to make an effort to find the information or think of some explanation yourself. Sorry if this comes as a surprise. I am not telling you how to post, just that i find it a bit irritating, that's all.
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Archimid

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Re: "Stupid" Questions :o
« Reply #3071 on: February 10, 2020, 05:51:53 PM »
9 days of persistence on top of objects. That is the best data I've seen. This is not typical of influenza that can hardly last 24 hours without a proper environment. Given the probable persistence of  CoV, there is a very real chance that the virus reaches someone on a package that is soiled with fluid and it is shipped via air. That chance is real but it is also very, very low while the number of infected remain "low".

Probably not worth worrying about.

About Alcohol wipes.

1. They can only disinfect the places you reach. Any area you missed it is not disinfected.
2. Even if you reach an area, if the alcohol does not persist for at least a minute, disinfection may not happen.
I am an energy reservoir seemingly intent on lowering entropy for self preservation.

Alexander555

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Re: "Stupid" Questions :o
« Reply #3072 on: February 10, 2020, 06:51:52 PM »
I bought 2 t-shirts in China 3 weeks ago. I think i'm not going to collect them at the door. Than they go to the post office, and i have 2 weeks to pick them up. Just to be sure.

SteveMDFP

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Re: "Stupid" Questions :o
« Reply #3073 on: February 10, 2020, 07:19:01 PM »
I bought 2 t-shirts in China 3 weeks ago. I think i'm not going to collect them at the door. Than they go to the post office, and i have 2 weeks to pick them up. Just to be sure.

In two weeks, there might be somebody in line with you at the post office who is coughing virus.
Much easier to take the package as delivered, toss it into a closet, wash your hands, then open the package in a week.
 

be cause

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Re: "Stupid" Questions :o
« Reply #3074 on: February 10, 2020, 07:29:49 PM »
piss on your package and leave outdoors for several weeks . Repeat the piss taking daily ..
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kassy

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Re: "Stupid" Questions :o
« Reply #3075 on: February 10, 2020, 07:35:29 PM »
Of course the safest thing to do is not to order crap from china. Local shirts might be uglier but well you can actually embroider or improve them if you want too.

Oh and i dont care about germs but why would you order something from across the world which you can buy in town?

This all wastes fossil fuels and it persistently erodes the local economy too.

Also i agree with nanning.

Second since this is in Arctic Sea Ice the long title of this thread should be read as Stupid questions about sea ice in a broad sense which does not actually include germs on crap you don´t need.
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Alexander555

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Re: "Stupid" Questions :o
« Reply #3076 on: February 10, 2020, 07:38:28 PM »
Than it's probably mutated, we have 4 cats walking around, squirls, hedghogs, rabbits, foxes....In summer there are plenty bats. I just leave it at the post office.

HapHazard

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Re: "Stupid" Questions :o
« Reply #3077 on: February 10, 2020, 09:39:20 PM »
reading the last dozen posts here have left me vulnerable to being contaminated by the stupid virus lol

Stephan

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Re: "Stupid" Questions :o
« Reply #3078 on: February 10, 2020, 10:00:52 PM »
I haven't read them at all - I confess
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Re: "Stupid" Questions :o
« Reply #3079 on: February 16, 2020, 04:19:11 PM »
Now that we are near the end of freezing season, I've noticed there are huge swings in daily extent gains, and even losses. Why is the behaviour of sea ice extent so wildly inconsistent around this time of year?
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binntho

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Re: "Stupid" Questions :o
« Reply #3080 on: February 16, 2020, 06:05:42 PM »
Now that we are near the end of freezing season, I've noticed there are huge swings in daily extent gains, and even losses. Why is the behaviour of sea ice extent so wildly inconsistent around this time of year?

Why would you expect it to be stable? The ice can at this moment only expand into open ocean, where currents and contrary winds can and will cause large fluctuations. By far the biggest difference in extent from one day to another, and indeed from one year to another, during these winter months, is due to the vagaries of winds and have little or nothing to do with temperatures.
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PragmaticAntithesis

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Re: "Stupid" Questions :o
« Reply #3081 on: February 16, 2020, 07:03:25 PM »
Now that we are near the end of freezing season, I've noticed there are huge swings in daily extent gains, and even losses. Why is the behaviour of sea ice extent so wildly inconsistent around this time of year?

Why would you expect it to be stable? The ice can at this moment only expand into open ocean, where currents and contrary winds can and will cause large fluctuations. By far the biggest difference in extent from one day to another, and indeed from one year to another, during these winter months, is due to the vagaries of winds and have little or nothing to do with temperatures.

So, would I be correct in saying that the wind is blowing the ice around, which affects sea ice dispersion (and therefore extent) while sea ice volume remains relatively stable?
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gerontocrat

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Re: "Stupid" Questions :o
« Reply #3082 on: February 16, 2020, 07:12:04 PM »
Now that we are near the end of freezing season, I've noticed there are huge swings in daily extent gains, and even losses. Why is the behaviour of sea ice extent so wildly inconsistent around this time of year?

Why would you expect it to be stable? The ice can at this moment only expand into open ocean, where currents and contrary winds can and will cause large fluctuations. By far the biggest difference in extent from one day to another, and indeed from one year to another, during these winter months, is due to the vagaries of winds and have little or nothing to do with temperatures.

So, would I be correct in saying that the wind is blowing the ice around, which affects sea ice dispersion (and therefore extent) while sea ice volume remains relatively stable?
Yes, in the peripheral seas, though above freezing temperatures are being brought into the Southern Barents and Kara sea on occasion. In the main Arctic Ocean, temperatures are still well below that necessary for further ice thickening. Hence volume will likely max out in April.
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