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Tom_Mazanec

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Re: "Smart" and "Stupid" Questions - Feel Free To Ask
« Reply #2750 on: November 20, 2019, 03:05:32 AM »
How long does it take to charge an EV? Is it like gassing up, or would I have to take a Kindle, a couple sandwiches and some pop?
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oren

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Re: "Smart" and "Stupid" Questions - Feel Free To Ask
« Reply #2751 on: November 20, 2019, 08:56:11 AM »
Normally you would charge it daily or weekly while parked, and never have to stop to recharge it. If on a road trip beyond the range of the car (normally 200-300 miles depending on make and model) it might take half an hour or less on a fast charger, but could be much longer as well, depending on car spec and charger spec and desired added range (full or partial).
On a Tesla Model 3 using the V3 supercharger you might be on your way in 15 minutes, but after 300 miles you might do well to grab a meal anyway.

blumenkraft

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Re: "Smart" and "Stupid" Questions - Feel Free To Ask
« Reply #2752 on: November 20, 2019, 06:45:03 PM »
Please click on "Effects" on the left hand side of the screen and click on "show acquisition dates".

@Stephan, you are talking about Sentinel Playground, don't you?

@Phil, i'm not aware EO-Browser has this feature. I'm using Sentinel Playground for that.

Iknownot

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Re: "Smart" and "Stupid" Questions - Feel Free To Ask
« Reply #2753 on: November 21, 2019, 06:46:52 PM »
What's the oldest ice in the arctic recorded? Ive been looking for a trivia question for work, but I can't find any data on that.

Tom_Mazanec

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Re: "Smart" and "Stupid" Questions - Feel Free To Ask
« Reply #2754 on: November 21, 2019, 08:34:19 PM »
How far in advance can we foresee a big El Nino coming?
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PragmaticAntithesis

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Re: "Smart" and "Stupid" Questions - Feel Free To Ask
« Reply #2755 on: November 22, 2019, 12:00:07 AM »
One can predict an El Nino by looking at ocean and atmosphere temperatures in the Pacific in the year leading up to it. For example, according to the US government climate.gov/enso this year will probably be neither El Nino nor La Nina because the water is warm but the air is cold.

However, one cannot easily predict the strength of an El Nino, as it's very much a weather event and predicting the weather is a nightmare.
A single seed in the right place can sprout an entire forest.

Tom_Mazanec

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Re: "Smart" and "Stupid" Questions - Feel Free To Ask
« Reply #2756 on: November 22, 2019, 01:55:54 AM »
Does anybody have an idea when this article was written?
http://globalwarming.berrens.nl/globalwarming.htm
I ask because:
1) There is a date given. It is today's date. It is always today's date. It was the date I put the article in my Bookmarks awhile ago when I put it in.
2) There is this sentence in it:
Quote
Chance of avoiding two degrees of global warming: 93%, but only if emissions of greenhouse gases are reduced by 60% over the next 10 years.
If this article was written in 2018, that is one thing. If it was written in 2008, that is something else.
Anybody know?

I think you'll find that it was January 25th 2018

Sorry, Phil, I tried googling more and got this:
http://climatechange12.com/a-degree-by-degree-explanation-of-what-will-happen-when-the-earth-warms/
The same article, but dated May 7, 2016.
And here is one even earlier:
https://montreal2012.wordpress.com/2011/10/24/a-degree-by-degree-explanation-of-what-will-happen-when-the-earth-warms/
These sites just seem to link to the original article.
So I know it was sometime previous to October 24, 2011. It refers to events in 2003 and 2005, but not later. It has
Quote
In the US and Australia, people will curse the climate-denying governments of Bush and Howard
implying a writing around 2007.
It looks like we are ----ed, according to this article.

EDIT: I tried the Wayback Machine:
https://web.archive.org/web/*/http://globalwarming.berrens.nl/globalwarming.htm
First saving December 7, 2007.
Definitely ----ed.
« Last Edit: November 22, 2019, 02:11:33 AM by Tom_Mazanec »
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oren

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Re: "Smart" and "Stupid" Questions - Feel Free To Ask
« Reply #2757 on: November 22, 2019, 02:40:51 AM »
Yes Tom, we are definitely ____ed.

be cause

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Re: "Smart" and "Stupid" Questions - Feel Free To Ask
« Reply #2758 on: November 22, 2019, 03:09:56 AM »
  ^^ the truth is out ..
2007 + 5 = 2012 + 4 = 2016 + 3 = 2019 + 2 = 2021 + 1 =  ' if only we could have seen it coming ' ...

Tor Bejnar

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Re: "Smart" and "Stupid" Questions - Feel Free To Ask
« Reply #2759 on: November 22, 2019, 05:00:12 AM »
What?
Are you telling me ....
Really?

I guess I need to live each day as if it is my last.
And, if I'm not proud of how I conduct my life, no one else will (well, anyway).  :P

Love you all!
Tor
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Tom_Mazanec

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Re: "Smart" and "Stupid" Questions - Feel Free To Ask
« Reply #2760 on: November 23, 2019, 11:49:51 AM »
What does El Nino do to the topic of this forum, Arctic Sea Ice? If we have a record El Nino in 2020 will that drive the maximum and/or minimum volumes to record levels?
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Re: "Smart" and "Stupid" Questions - Feel Free To Ask
« Reply #2761 on: November 23, 2019, 12:58:14 PM »
How i understand it, it depends on the weather in the Arctic, but it increases the likelihood for bad weather and more warm waters from the south reaching the north (which is an effect with delay).

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Re: "Smart" and "Stupid" Questions - Feel Free To Ask
« Reply #2762 on: November 23, 2019, 01:57:26 PM »
How i understand it, it depends on the weather in the Arctic, but it increases the likelihood for bad weather and more warm waters from the south reaching the north (which is an effect with delay).
The 2016 El Nino may well have been responsible for unprecedented strong melt and slow refreeze of the Antarctic Sea ice which has not really recovered in the years 2017 to 2019.

I think AbruptSLR has written much about the effects on melting at depth of the Antarctic ice shelves and marine-terminating glaciers.
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crandles

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Re: "Smart" and "Stupid" Questions - Feel Free To Ask
« Reply #2763 on: November 23, 2019, 03:47:16 PM »
How far in advance can we foresee a big El Nino coming?

One can predict an El Nino by looking at ocean and atmosphere temperatures in the Pacific in the year leading up to it. For example, according to the US government climate.gov/enso this year will probably be neither El Nino nor La Nina because the water is warm but the air is cold.

However, one cannot easily predict the strength of an El Nino, as it's very much a weather event and predicting the weather is a nightmare.

There is a May/spring barrier to prediction. From June/July you may be able to have reasonable prediction for up to 9 months to a year ahead. However if you cross May barrier, you shouldn't trust it as much. So more like 6 months at this time of year. This barrier is not absolute: there is some skill in prediction across May barrier, just not as much as at other times of year.

this is as far as I understand, don't ask me why.

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Re: "Smart" and "Stupid" Questions - Feel Free To Ask
« Reply #2764 on: November 23, 2019, 04:06:26 PM »
Does anybody have an idea when this article was written?
http://globalwarming.berrens.nl/globalwarming.htm
I ask because:
1) There is a date given. It is today's date. It is always today's date. It was the date I put the article in my Bookmarks awhile ago when I put it in.
2) There is this sentence in it:
Quote
Chance of avoiding two degrees of global warming: 93%, but only if emissions of greenhouse gases are reduced by 60% over the next 10 years.
If this article was written in 2018, that is one thing. If it was written in 2008, that is something else.
Anybody know?

EDIT: I tried the Wayback Machine:
https://web.archive.org/web/*/http://globalwarming.berrens.nl/globalwarming.htm
First saving December 7, 2007.
Definitely ----ed.

Or we can hope that the scientists saying these '10 years to save the world' articles are misleading:

eg
https://www.forbes.com/sites/michaelmarshalleurope/2018/10/08/why-its-misleading-to-say-we-only-have-12-years-to-avert-dangerous-climate-change/

Quote
Indeed, the jokes are being made. "Deja Vu - the Rio Climate Summit was in 1992. Back then 26 years ago activists said that we only had ten years to get climate change under control", grumbled one Twitter user. I doubt that this new deadline, coming after so many others, is going to sway anyone that wasn't already convinced of the significance of climate change.

It seems 'only had 10 years' goes back to 1992 or maybe further.

Back in 1992, maybe the narrative had a chance of being believed. After 27 years of it ... the reaction is more likely to be:
better hope it is all exaggeration to try to create more action,
or else it may become:  this proves the stuff is rubbish.

Exaggeration to try to create more action has it drawbacks.

gerontocrat

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Re: "Smart" and "Stupid" Questions - Feel Free To Ask
« Reply #2765 on: November 23, 2019, 04:27:55 PM »
This quote is from an article about something completely different, but maybe it applies to the issues discussed in many threads on the ASIF, including this thread......

Quote
Things go along much as before, until – seemingly abruptly, but not really – they don’t. What now for it all? I can’t help thinking of that great bit of Hemingway dialogue from The Sun Also Rises. “How did you go bankrupt?” “Two ways,” comes the reply. “Gradually and then suddenly.”
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/nov/22/prince-andrew-duke-of-york-sacked
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Archimid

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Re: "Smart" and "Stupid" Questions - Feel Free To Ask
« Reply #2766 on: November 23, 2019, 05:25:35 PM »
Quote
better hope it is all exaggeration to try to create more action,
or else it may become:  this proves the stuff is rubbish.

What if you are confusing exaggeration with uncertainty?

Also, if we ignore the possible danger and don't talk about it, it is 100% guaranteed that nothing will be done about the danger. Nothing will be done because there is no apparent danger and nothing to be done about it.

If we talk about the dangers, some people will examine the facts and take action, while others will complain because we sound scary.

So option 1 results in no action and option 2 results in action from some and inaction and moaning by others.

Given what is at stake and given the uncertainties, I'll take option 2.
I am an energy reservoir seemingly intent on lowering entropy for self preservation.

Klondike Kat

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Re: "Smart" and "Stupid" Questions - Feel Free To Ask
« Reply #2767 on: November 23, 2019, 05:51:53 PM »
Quote
better hope it is all exaggeration to try to create more action,
or else it may become:  this proves the stuff is rubbish.

What if you are confusing exaggeration with uncertainty?

Also, if we ignore the possible danger and don't talk about it, it is 100% guaranteed that nothing will be done about the danger. Nothing will be done because there is no apparent danger and nothing to be done about it.

If we talk about the dangers, some people will examine the facts and take action, while others will complain because we sound scary.

So option 1 results in no action and option 2 results in action from some and inaction and moaning by others.

Given what is at stake and given the uncertainties, I'll take option 2.

I believe that the exaggeration to which you refer is just the tail end of the uncertainly curve.  It has a real, but less likely chance of occurrence.  If it was just a matter of taking action to avoid the possible occurrence, then action makes sense.  When that action cost significant sums of money, the possibility of its occurrence must be weighed against its costs. 

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Re: "Smart" and "Stupid" Questions - Feel Free To Ask
« Reply #2768 on: November 23, 2019, 06:29:44 PM »
^^
"the possibility of its occurence"  ?

Are you talking about reality? About climate change? Or just the difficult to predict big El Niño's with all its effects? Keeling Curve?
I don't understand why taking action has anything to do with 'costs'? Can you please explain?
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Re: "Smart" and "Stupid" Questions - Feel Free To Ask
« Reply #2769 on: November 23, 2019, 09:35:18 PM »
Quote
better hope it is all exaggeration to try to create more action,
or else it may become:  this proves the stuff is rubbish.

What if you are confusing exaggeration with uncertainty?

I am not confused, I am convinced taking action is the appropriate strategy. But I am saying we should consider what it looks like to people who are not convinced.

^^
"the possibility of its occurence"  ?

Are you talking about reality? About climate change? Or just the difficult to predict big El Niño's with all its effects? Keeling Curve?
I don't understand why taking action has anything to do with 'costs'? Can you please explain?

To someone convinced, the possibility of occurrence (of the important impacts) is near 100% but with some uncertainty as to timing. Other people may be less certain.

Costs?
We may find that for some actions like electricity from renewable, there is a saving because renewables in scale work out cheaper. These should be done regardless of whether they reduce impacts. However for other actions it may not be so cost-less. For generating heat, ff are cheap as chips. Heat pumps run on renewable electricity may get the heat you want but so far seems a lot more convoluted and costly than just having ff boiler. Subsidies may get people to use such an alternative but the subsidy money doesn't grow on a magic money tree, it is a cost to society, or could be put towards some other objective. In economic language there are usually opportunity costs to such policies.

It seems obvious to me that all of the following need to be taken into consideration for a rational policy:

How severe the impact
The likelihood of the impact
The time before impact occurs
The cost of avoiding and/or mitigating action(s)

Tom_Mazanec

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Re: "Smart" and "Stupid" Questions - Feel Free To Ask
« Reply #2770 on: November 24, 2019, 01:48:21 AM »
Instead of a "hot topic" or "locked topic" type icon, some threads have a blue circle with a ! or ? in them, or a paperclip.
What do these mean?
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crandles

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Re: "Smart" and "Stupid" Questions - Feel Free To Ask
« Reply #2771 on: November 24, 2019, 02:07:33 AM »
Instead of a "hot topic" or "locked topic" type icon, some threads have a blue circle with a ! or ? in them, or a paperclip.
What do these mean?

When you start a thread, there is a drop down box for "message icon". Most people will leave as standard but there is a list including Exclamation point, question mark, smiley, and others. I guess it often just means the thread starter experimented with this. Maybe sometimes it has been selected as apparently appropriate to the thread.

I don't see a paper clip option in that list so perhaps this means there is an attachment in the thread. There could be more such features that I haven't figured out.
« Last Edit: November 24, 2019, 02:13:22 AM by crandles »

nanning

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Re: "Smart" and "Stupid" Questions - Feel Free To Ask
« Reply #2772 on: November 24, 2019, 08:53:08 AM »
Perhaps my assumption is wrong, but: Why is the acid from our stomach not going into our intestines?
"It is preoccupation with possessions, more than anything else, that prevents us from living freely and nobly" - Bertrand Russell
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Why do you keep accumulating stuff?

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Re: "Smart" and "Stupid" Questions - Feel Free To Ask
« Reply #2773 on: November 24, 2019, 09:56:44 AM »
The questions should relate to ice/climate/global warming i think.

For this one just look up the human digestive system on wikipedia (english, the dutch entry is not as good).

Re 1992: maxing out in 2002 would have been a good idea. The old target was basically 1C warming max and that was shifted for non climate reasons. From 2003 on the arctic permafrost is already a source and not a sink and that was one of the things that we should have prevented.

Þetta minnismerki er til vitnis um að við vitum hvað er að gerast og hvað þarf að gera. Aðeins þú veist hvort við gerðum eitthvað.

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Re: "Smart" and "Stupid" Questions - Feel Free To Ask
« Reply #2774 on: November 24, 2019, 10:55:43 AM »

I am not confused, I am convinced taking action is the appropriate strategy. But I am saying we should consider what it looks like to people who are not convinced.


I understand, but why are they not convinced of the possible dangers?  My belief is that it has nothing to do with available information or logic. The information is there and it is extremely clear with just basic inspection. The people who are resisting action are not acting on logic, we must ignore them or kick them to the curve if they get in the way. No need to change the message to fit their delicate sensitivities, only speak the best truth possible. They will not change their minds because the implication of climate change is terrifying and life-altering.

We have already tried the "climate change is a problem for 2100" trick. That was the real lie. The concept was logical. If we lie to the people and tell them this is a problem for 2100 and our children, then maybe, just maybe, we will appeal to their common sense, without scaring them too much. Surely action will be taken. It failed. Miserably. CO2 is climbing fast.

I suggest we state the truth as best we know it and do not try to hide or reduce the possible threat for fear of being made fun off.

I agree that exaggeration is not good, but when talking about the unknown future it is very difficult to know when one is exaggerating. That humanity is at risk of collapse due to climate change is most certainly not an exaggeration. The exact way is too complex to know.
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nanning

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Re: "Smart" and "Stupid" Questions - Feel Free To Ask
« Reply #2775 on: November 24, 2019, 11:17:16 AM »
Hi Archimid, I think you've put that nice and clear.
"It is preoccupation with possessions, more than anything else, that prevents us from living freely and nobly" - Bertrand Russell
"It is preoccupation with what other people from your groups think of you, that prevents you from living freely and nobly" - Nanning
Why do you keep accumulating stuff?

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Re: "Smart" and "Stupid" Questions - Feel Free To Ask
« Reply #2776 on: November 24, 2019, 01:43:18 PM »
^^
"the possibility of its occurence"  ?

Are you talking about reality? About climate change? Or just the difficult to predict big El Niño's with all its effects? Keeling Curve?
I don't understand why taking action has anything to do with 'costs'? Can you please explain?

I think that crandles did a good job answering your cost question.  Very few, if any, actions occur without an associated cost.  These must be weighed against the benefits.

With regards to possibility.  Everything has a possibility curve, from tomorrow’s weather to next centuries climate.  Nothing is certain, and possibilities change based on inputs.

nanning

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Re: "Smart" and "Stupid" Questions - Feel Free To Ask
« Reply #2777 on: November 24, 2019, 04:47:20 PM »
Thanks for the response.

"must be weighed against the benefits"

Shall we ask the children this question of cost and benefits.
And, how expensive is the survival of civilisation and most of other lifeforms?

To me these costs/benefits questions/policies of yes/no taking action are insane and very low morality.
"It is preoccupation with possessions, more than anything else, that prevents us from living freely and nobly" - Bertrand Russell
"It is preoccupation with what other people from your groups think of you, that prevents you from living freely and nobly" - Nanning
Why do you keep accumulating stuff?

Tom_Mazanec

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Re: "Smart" and "Stupid" Questions - Feel Free To Ask
« Reply #2778 on: November 24, 2019, 05:11:33 PM »
Yes, nanning.
Unfortunately it is like a speaker I heard in college, talking about job hunting:
"Not fair, real!"
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Klondike Kat

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Re: "Smart" and "Stupid" Questions - Feel Free To Ask
« Reply #2779 on: November 24, 2019, 06:27:45 PM »
Thanks for the response.

"must be weighed against the benefits"

Shall we ask the children this question of cost and benefits.
And, how expensive is the survival of civilisation and most of other lifeforms?

To me these costs/benefits questions/policies of yes/no taking action are insane and very low morality.

Actually, not doing a cost/benefit analysts is insane and of low morality.  Why on earth would you promote an action that might make things worse?

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Re: "Smart" and "Stupid" Questions - Feel Free To Ask
« Reply #2780 on: November 24, 2019, 07:18:47 PM »
Experts calculate the odds of an asteroid big enough to wipe out all life on Earth hitting Earth in the next billion years is 99.996%. Since this is so likely and the impact so devastating, we should apply 20% of our GDP to developing asteroid deflection abilities.

Do you advocate the above?

Or do you accept that just maybe a billion years is long enough that if this calculation was carried out 30 years ago, the appropriate response might just have been to develop our economies sufficiently until we can do it for 0.5% of GDP?

SpaceX tech is likely to make it much more than 40 times cheaper. We may not have known that 30 years ago, but it would have been a mistake to go at it, all out, 30 years ago.

I don't think AGW is a similar situation though I can't be certain.

I do agree with Klondike Kat that:
1. Not doing a cost/benefit analysts is insane and of low morality, and
2. We don't want to promote a cure that is worse than the disease, and
3. Doing the cost benefit analysis is the sane way of preventing 2 above.

Yes serious effects in 50 to 300 years time is much more serious than sometime in next billion years. This doesn't get you out of the need for such cost benefit analysis.

Stern and others have done such analyses and found actions now produce worthwhile savings. The problem seems to me of politicians ignoring such analysis or preferring to consider 4-5 political timeframes instead of long term considerations rather than the analysis being too complex or not needed.

nanning

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Re: "Smart" and "Stupid" Questions - Feel Free To Ask
« Reply #2781 on: November 24, 2019, 07:23:54 PM »
To KK:
You really think the children will see it like that? Ever?
And their children and all future generation(s)? How do you think they will judge your cost/benefit analysis? How do they stay alive without ecosystems KK?
What is price of the Koala species for example? You have to monetize/commoditise that to be able to do your cost/benefit analysis. I think that's insane.
And I think you don't understand morality my dear.
"It is preoccupation with possessions, more than anything else, that prevents us from living freely and nobly" - Bertrand Russell
"It is preoccupation with what other people from your groups think of you, that prevents you from living freely and nobly" - Nanning
Why do you keep accumulating stuff?

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Re: "Smart" and "Stupid" Questions - Feel Free To Ask
« Reply #2782 on: November 24, 2019, 08:01:38 PM »
To KK:
You really think the children will see it like that? Ever?
And their children and all future generation(s)? How do you think they will judge your cost/benefit analysis? How do they stay alive without ecosystems KK?
What is price of the Koala species for example? You have to monetize/commoditise that to be able to do your cost/benefit analysis. I think that's insane.
And I think you don't understand morality my dear.

That all depends on whether we choose the action(s) that result in the greatest benefit.  I understand morality, probably much better than you. The ends does not justify the means.  We need action that considers both today’s generations and tomorrow’s, the rich and poor, etc.

Tor Bejnar

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Re: "Smart" and "Stupid" Questions - Feel Free To Ask
« Reply #2783 on: November 24, 2019, 10:56:42 PM »
Quote
Experts calculate the odds of an asteroid big enough to wipe out all life on Earth hitting Earth in the next billion years is 99.996%. ...
I'd say those experts don't know what is included in "life". There are bacteria, archaea and eukarya  that live 1,000s of feet below our feet.  A moon-sized asteroid hitting the earth would kill all 'higher life', very possibly, but 'all life'? I surely doubt it.  Now, running into a star - that'd do it.

All this is not much help for me and my wife, though!  :o

Arctic ice is healthy for children and other living things.

Tom_Mazanec

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Re: "Smart" and "Stupid" Questions - Feel Free To Ask
« Reply #2784 on: November 24, 2019, 11:26:18 PM »
Right, TB. And they are often hyperextremophiles.
Their early ancestors survived the Late Heavy Bombardment.
SHARKS (CROSSED OUT) MONGEESE (SIC) WITH FRICKIN LASER BEAMS ATTACHED TO THEIR HEADS

Archimid

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Re: "Smart" and "Stupid" Questions - Feel Free To Ask
« Reply #2785 on: November 25, 2019, 12:00:17 AM »
Quote
1. Not doing a cost/benefit analysts is insane and of low morality, and

What about a cost-benefit analysis that underestimates the cost of not doing anything and overestimate the cost of doing something? What is the morality of such an analysis?

Quote
2. We don't want to promote a cure that is worse than the disease, and

The disease if left untreated is fatal. The cure, if done right leads to a better quality of life for everyone.

Quote
3. Doing the cost-benefit analysis is the sane way of preventing 2 above.

You are right about this. The current Nobel prize-winning cost-benefit analysis is insane, that's why it is not working.
I am an energy reservoir seemingly intent on lowering entropy for self preservation.

Klondike Kat

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Re: "Smart" and "Stupid" Questions - Feel Free To Ask
« Reply #2786 on: November 25, 2019, 02:04:19 PM »
Quote
1. Not doing a cost/benefit analysts is insane and of low morality, and

What about a cost-benefit analysis that underestimates the cost of not doing anything and overestimate the cost of doing something? What is the morality of such an analysis?

Quote
2. We don't want to promote a cure that is worse than the disease, and

The disease if left untreated is fatal. The cure, if done right leads to a better quality of life for everyone.

Quote
3. Doing the cost-benefit analysis is the sane way of preventing 2 above.

You are right about this. The current Nobel prize-winning cost-benefit analysis is insane, that's why it is not working.

I think you have just confirmed what crandles is saying.  Namely, we need to do an accurate cost/benefit analysis, not just some back of the envelope calculations.  We need to find the right cure, not something that makes the disease worse.  Doing something just for the sake of doing something, is not always the best move.  A little logic and sanity goes a long way.

Archimid

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Re: "Smart" and "Stupid" Questions - Feel Free To Ask
« Reply #2787 on: November 25, 2019, 02:26:45 PM »
Klondike Kat, please answer the question:

Quote
What about a cost-benefit analysis that underestimates the cost of not doing anything and overestimate the cost of doing something? What is the morality of such an analysis?


I'll rephrase it just in case you can't understand it:

What is the morality of a cost-benefit analysis that underestimates the destruction and overestimates the cost of doing something about it?
I am an energy reservoir seemingly intent on lowering entropy for self preservation.

crandles

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Re: "Smart" and "Stupid" Questions - Feel Free To Ask
« Reply #2788 on: November 25, 2019, 03:00:37 PM »
What is the morality of a cost-benefit analysis that underestimates the destruction and overestimates the cost of doing something about it?

Surely this depends on the reason(s) for the analysis being like that.

If it is done deceptively and not transparently for the purpose of arriving at the conclusion ff interests want then it is despicable or worse.

If it is done transparently for reasons such as it is difficult to do better and these issues are drawn to the attention of the reader/policy maker and the report concludes that more action is justified even when some of the potential destruction and issues caused are ignored... then AFAICS that may be an appropriate way for the cost benefit analysis to go about it.

>overestimates the cost of doing something about it

Perhaps you could give some examples. I wouldn't be surprised to find old reports overestimating costs of renewables, they have fallen in cost rather sharply. Again you have to consider the reason: Is the overestimate of cost a reasonable attempt that has been proven accidentally wrong by subsequent events (an honest attempt would be expected to have lots of errors in both directions) or is it deliberate or recklessly careless or....?

An environmentalist looking at such a cost benefit report and deciding it doesn't adequately make the urgent case for much more action and very soon risks being a confirmation bias conclusion.

Archimid

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Re: "Smart" and "Stupid" Questions - Feel Free To Ask
« Reply #2789 on: November 25, 2019, 04:38:55 PM »
Quote
Surely this depends on the reason(s) for the analysis being like that.

It does.

Quote
If it is done deceptively and not transparently for the purpose of arriving at the conclusion ff interests want then it is despicable or worse.

What if the errors have been pointed out but the analysts keep their positions? Can they claim not to be deceptive? I guess they could claim it, and it would be true, but it will be very hard to believe or forgive.

Quote
If it is done transparently for reasons such as it is difficult to do better and these issues are drawn to the attention of the reader/policy maker and the report concludes that more action is justified even when some of the potential destruction and issues caused are ignored... then AFAICS that may be an appropriate way for the cost benefit analysis to go about it.

Transparently? So Donald Trump's war on science is a fantasy? It is my imagination that countries typically veto science documents? If official documents are not written a certain DISHONEST but "honest" way, they don't get written.

Sorry, but the current climate science and risk assessment underestimates the danger and overestimates the cost of prevention/adaptation.

Remember that thread where we examined the IPCC claims for no hysteresis in the Arctic?

Quote
I wouldn't be surprised to find old reports overestimating costs of renewables

Old reports? I don't know about the IPCC, but the IEA certainly overestimates all sorts of assumptions about renewables and EV. More often than not I hear of municipalities completing renewables before than expected. Their expectations no doubt based on what they believed to be the best science.

Quote
Again you have to consider the reason: Is the overestimate of cost a reasonable attempt that has been proven accidentally wrong by subsequent events (an honest attempt would be expected to have lots of errors in both directions) or is it deliberate or recklessly careless or....?

The IEA consistently fails in the same direction. I would be surprised if the same thing doesn't happen in the IPCC.



Quote
An environmentalist looking at such a cost benefit report and deciding it doesn't adequately make the urgent case for much more action and very soon risks being a confirmation bias conclusion

I'm not an environmentalist but I know of my bias towards catastrophic thinking. Sadly, what I learn every day reinforces that thinking. I was pleasantly surprised by my lastest BOE estimate of 2032 as it gives me more time. At the same time, I'm horrified that people are trying to solve climate change for 2050.

What is your bias? What bias might an IPCC scientist face? I know for sure they face lying governments begging for pleasant answers. But did they disclose that bias? Of course not.

 At least they lowered the safe limit to 1.5 C instead of 2 C.
I am an energy reservoir seemingly intent on lowering entropy for self preservation.

Klondike Kat

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Re: "Smart" and "Stupid" Questions - Feel Free To Ask
« Reply #2790 on: November 25, 2019, 05:37:14 PM »
Klondike Kat, please answer the question:

Quote
What about a cost-benefit analysis that underestimates the cost of not doing anything and overestimate the cost of doing something? What is the morality of such an analysis?


I'll rephrase it just in case you can't understand it:

What is the morality of a cost-benefit analysis that underestimates the destruction and overestimates the cost of doing something about it?

Do not be so condescending.

Your case is only immoral, if it has been based on deliberately deceptive reasoning.  Otherwise, one does the best they can with the information available.  One can find several cases in which a particular action would not have been taken had a CBA been performed, and others in which CBA yielded actions that should not have been taken. 

In hindsight, it was not a good idea to slaughter 40,000 elephants in Africa to save the grasslands from desertification.


Archimid

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Re: "Smart" and "Stupid" Questions - Feel Free To Ask
« Reply #2791 on: November 25, 2019, 05:57:53 PM »

Quote
Do not be so condescending.

I give climate change deniers the same respect I would give a Nazi. The number of victims of the Nazis was much less than what climate change brings.
 
Quote
Your case is only immoral, if it has been based on deliberately deceptive reasoning.

And there has been and there is "deliberately deceptive reasoning". Can you even admit to the fact that there has been a deliberate deception attempt? Should I pretend that people like you have been warning us all along and climate change denial is a figment of my imagination? Bleh

You can't even admit to your own bias.

Quote
Otherwise, one does the best they can with the information available.

And if it is available and you don't like it, ignore it.
I am an energy reservoir seemingly intent on lowering entropy for self preservation.

nanning

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Re: "Smart" and "Stupid" Questions - Feel Free To Ask
« Reply #2792 on: November 25, 2019, 06:23:52 PM »
Thank you very much for your great contributions to this discussion Archimid! :)

Hallo KK, what do you think of the costs of my solution: Use less and less energy in stead of continuing high energy lifestyles and trying to find ways to keep it like that. Excercise restraint; make sacrifices.
And KK, what do you think the benefits are of my solution?

I think you will find that the costs are low and the benefits are enormous, potentially species-saving.

Apparently the theory of costs/benefits is blind to reality. It has an inbuilt assumption of ongoing affluence. That cannot go on and is insane and of low morality. Think of the future of all of humanity, of the children.

Your turn ;).
"It is preoccupation with possessions, more than anything else, that prevents us from living freely and nobly" - Bertrand Russell
"It is preoccupation with what other people from your groups think of you, that prevents you from living freely and nobly" - Nanning
Why do you keep accumulating stuff?

Klondike Kat

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Re: "Smart" and "Stupid" Questions - Feel Free To Ask
« Reply #2793 on: November 25, 2019, 08:13:38 PM »
Nanning,

I take no issue with your solution.  However, you do realize that although it will save money, it will only slow the rate of CO2 increase slightly.  I fail to see the enormous benefits reaped.

crandles

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Re: "Smart" and "Stupid" Questions - Feel Free To Ask
« Reply #2794 on: November 25, 2019, 08:27:09 PM »
I think you will find that the costs are low and the benefits are enormous, potentially species-saving.

The cost are low and there are some considerable benefits that are hard to value but some people may consider them enormous. But the opportunity costs are also high in that people cannot choose to do some of the things they would like to do.

Not saying your safety first solution is wrong but many people would find it dreary, boring, unexciting, dreadfully dull, demoralising on the human spirit and lots of other similar descriptions.

Iknownot

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Re: "Smart" and "Stupid" Questions - Feel Free To Ask
« Reply #2795 on: November 26, 2019, 01:52:12 AM »
A couple of stupid questions as I dig into this fascinating subject. First, there was a huge fuss over plastic drinking sta in the us, and in response, many places now outlaw them. They have since been replaced with products that require the manufacturing of more plastic. Isn't that worse, as it's not the final product but the manufacturing that raises greenhouse gases? Second, if the earth's crust is constantly changing at a rate of about 1 inch per year, that means that in the last 40 years, the Atlantic has gained a lot of room. How would we expect the arctic to respond to that?

nanning

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Re: "Smart" and "Stupid" Questions - Feel Free To Ask
« Reply #2796 on: November 26, 2019, 07:58:50 AM »
Can someone please explain to me how the actions mentioned in the following quote fit in a costs/benefits analysis?

The linked article indicates that: "Clean-energy investments in the developing world plummeted last year … "

Title: "The developing world has hit the brakes on clean energy"

https://www.technologyreview.com/f/614750/the-developing-world-has-hit-the-brakes-on-clean-energy/

Extract: "Clean-energy investments in the developing world plummeted last year while coal use reached a record high.

Those are very bad signs for the climate. Most of the world’s economic expansion in the coming decades will be in nations like China, India, and other emerging markets. So powering that growth with fossil fuels, rather than renewables, threatens to lock in soaring levels of greenhouse gas emissions.

The really bad news: It now appears that China has kicked off a new coal building boom.
Last week, nonprofit Global Energy Monitor reported that the nation expanded its coal fleet by nearly 43 gigawatts between January 2018 and June 2019, far outpacing a roughly 8-gigawatt decline across the rest of the world in that period. And it has nearly 150 gigawatts under construction or likely to be revived—roughly equal to all the European Union’s coal plants.

“An increase in China’s coal power capacity is not compatible with the Paris climate agreement to hold warming well below 2 °C,” the report concluded."
"It is preoccupation with possessions, more than anything else, that prevents us from living freely and nobly" - Bertrand Russell
"It is preoccupation with what other people from your groups think of you, that prevents you from living freely and nobly" - Nanning
Why do you keep accumulating stuff?

binntho

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Re: "Smart" and "Stupid" Questions - Feel Free To Ask
« Reply #2797 on: November 26, 2019, 08:06:46 AM »
Does anybody think that a proper, actionable, cost-benefit analysis can be done when one of the possible outcomes is total devastation? I'm not sure. Perhaps there are methods for doing this.

But it doesn't matter, it makes absolutely no difference. No such analysis is ever going to be acted upon.
because a thing is eloquently expressed it should not be taken to be as necessarily true
St. Augustine, Confessions V, 6

nanning

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Re: "Smart" and "Stupid" Questions - Feel Free To Ask
« Reply #2798 on: November 26, 2019, 10:47:10 AM »
(Article found in a post in another thread I can't remember now. I post this here because I think it puts the costs/benefits discussion in context)

"Memo from a Climate Crisis Realist: The Choice before Us"
  by William E. Rees
William E. Rees is professor emeritus of human ecology and ecological economics at the University of British Columbia.

https://thetyee.ca/Analysis/2019/11/12/Climate-Crisis-Realist-Memo/

  quote from the article:
Quote
Eleven steps

So, where might we go from here? A rational world with a good grasp of reality would have begun articulating a long-term wind-down strategy 20 or 30 years ago. The needed global emergency plan would certainly have included most of the 11 realistic responses to the climate crisis listed below — which, even if implemented today would at least slow the coming unravelling. And no, the currently proposed Green New Deal won’t do it.

Here, then, is what an effective “Green New Deal” might look like:

1. Formal recognition of the end of material growth and the need to reduce the human ecological footprint;

2. Acknowledgement that, as long as we remain in overshoot — exploiting essential ecosystems faster than they can regenerate — sustainable production/consumption means less production/consumption;

3. Recognition of the theoretical and practical difficulties/impossibility of an all-green quantitatively equivalent energy transition;

4. Assistance to communities, families and individuals to facilitate the adoption of sustainable lifestyles (even North Americans lived happily on half the energy per capita in the 1960s that we use today);

5. Identification and implementation of strategies (e.g., taxes, fines) to encourage/force individuals and corporations to eliminate unnecessary fossil fuel use and reduce energy waste (half or more of energy “consumed” is wasted through inefficiencies and carelessness);

6. Programs to retrain the workforce for constructive employment in the new survival economy;

7. Policies to restructure the global and national economies to remain within the remaining “allowable” carbon budget while developing/improving sustainable energy alternatives;

8. Processes to allocate the remaining carbon budget (through rationing, quotas, etc.) fairly to essential uses only, such as food production, space/water heating, inter-urban transportation;

9. Plans to reduce the need for interregional transportation and increase regional resilience by re-localizing essential economic activity (de-globalization);

10. Recognition that equitable sustainability requires fiscal mechanisms for income/wealth redistribution;

11. A global population strategy to enable a smooth descent to the two to three billion that could live comfortably indefinitely within the biophysical means of nature.
"It is preoccupation with possessions, more than anything else, that prevents us from living freely and nobly" - Bertrand Russell
"It is preoccupation with what other people from your groups think of you, that prevents you from living freely and nobly" - Nanning
Why do you keep accumulating stuff?

binntho

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Re: "Smart" and "Stupid" Questions - Feel Free To Ask
« Reply #2799 on: November 26, 2019, 11:51:37 AM »
"Formal recognition of the end of material growth " ... yeah right. And the earth is flat and created by the flying spaghetti monster.
because a thing is eloquently expressed it should not be taken to be as necessarily true
St. Augustine, Confessions V, 6