"Smart" and "Stupid" Questions - Feel Free To Ask

[Archimid]

Therefore, a mechanism that can account for the increased poleward energy flux is still needed. ...
In fact, the hemisphere-wide  Hadley  cell  (Farrell,  1990),  whose  sinking branch occurs in the Arctic, can warm high-latitude continental interior. However, this theory requires a tropopause height of ~30 km, 2-3 times that of the present-day value.

I read that and immediately thought, is the tropopause height changing? If so, how much? A quick google search gave me the attached image. From here: https://www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/ar4/wg1/en/fig/figure-9-14-l.png

That ends in the year 2000. Since then things have changed significantly. I would love to see the most recent data. My bet is that it follows temperature, so in the hottest year on record I would expect it to change accordingly.

[Gray-Wolf]

Though this is becoming overlong for 'stupid questions' i have to agree with Archimid that we have been seeing climate in the throes of AGW forced change ( via the Arctic) since the late 90's? The 'cold plunges' appeared to become a yearly event somewhere in the northern Hemisphere well before the open water we saw across the Arctic in 07'? From Japan to Greece, from Somalia to China we were seeing temperature/temp extremes as these 'polar outbreaks' became a common feature of northern hemisphere winters.

Last year we saw sub tropical airs plough into the basin at winter Solstice.

These rapid/unmodified airmass exchanges are the planet trying to flip up to a 'warmer setting' as we thicken our GHG blanket.

The energy we see flood the climate system on the first BOE will stoke up this process further and drive even balmier weather events around the areas impacted by rapid air mass exchange.

[Sleepy]

So for someone who is way out of his depth here: Is Persson the go-to guy for these matters? And is the controversy about what caused equable climates on earth resolved now?

1. No, not one single human is the go-to-guy, I think you know that science doesn't work like that.
2. No, but that wasn't the issue, it was about the Hadley cell expanding to the poles now or in a rather near future that caused emotions above (and in the freezing seasons thread). I posted a link to a recent study in the freezing seasons thread as well, about how much the Hadley cell has expanded.

[Tigertown]

Does Hudson Bay usually freeze over before it gets pumped full of ice? There appears to be a pretty good chance it will get imported(from the Bay's standpoint) this year. Is that out of the ordinary?

[be cause]

|Entertaining myself with a brouse of models and their attempts to deal with the uncharted , I note that JMA is forecasting pressure over Greenland to rise beyond 1080 mb . Is this even possible ?

[Darvince]

Yes, it is possible, but extraordinarily unlikely, because the current highest ever measured high pressure was 1086mb in northern Mongolia in the dead of winter. I looked at the run and it shows it peaking at 1090mb which I find absolutely insane, but considering the state of the Arctic and Siberia recently it's also entirely possible.

[Ice Shieldz]

Ha i know fun model madness.  Here is yesterday's ECMWF12Z @180 hours with -60F anomalies! I'm sure some equations in the models are gonna get tweaked or rewritten.     as extreme weather can provide important insights into underlying dynamics and processes.

[Tigertown]

Does Hudson Bay usually freeze over before it gets pumped full of ice? There appears to be a pretty good chance it will get imported(from the Bay's standpoint) this year. Is that out of the ordinary?

Well Tt(hope you don't mind the abbreviation), Whatever happens there in Hudson Bay, it will probably be a while. I just checked and the water temps there are still relatively warm. The better question may be how long will the ice that has wormed its way through the passages to get there will last?

[Peter Ellis]

Does Hudson Bay usually freeze over before it gets pumped full of ice? There appears to be a pretty good chance it will get imported(from the Bay's standpoint) this year. Is that out of the ordinary?

... imported from where? What on Earth are you talking about?  The ice edge is advancing from the North (as it does every single year), but that's not "import", that's just how stuff freezes. The northerly latitudes freeze over before the more southerly latitudes, on account of the shape of the planet.

Are you somehow thinking that ice from the Arctic ocean will make it southward out of the Arctic basin, all the way along the Northwest Passages, then turn east through the Fury and Hecla strait, south again through Foxe Basin and ultimately into Hudson Bay?  When these are already solidly covered with newly-formed first year ice?

Just... what?

[Shared Humanity]

Ahem, Shared-Humanity - So, quite a useless discussion.

It is what I do best.

[Tigertown]

Does Hudson Bay usually freeze over before it gets pumped full of ice? There appears to be a pretty good chance it will get imported(from the Bay's standpoint) this year. Is that out of the ordinary?

... imported from where? What on Earth are you talking about?  The ice edge is advancing from the North (as it does every single year), but that's not "import", that's just how stuff freezes. The northerly latitudes freeze over before the more southerly latitudes, on account of the shape of the planet.

Are you somehow thinking that ice from the Arctic ocean will make it southward out of the Arctic basin, all the way along the Northwest Passages, then turn east through the Fury and Hecla strait, south again through Foxe Basin and ultimately into Hudson Bay?  When these are already solidly covered with newly-formed first year ice?

Just... what?

Did you read the name of this thread? I thought the idea was to be able to ask something without being insulted. I have gone back and watched Polarview now and see that for the most part the ice formed in the northern part. You could have shown a lot more character by just explaining that.

[Shared Humanity]

Does Hudson Bay usually freeze over before it gets pumped full of ice? There appears to be a pretty good chance it will get imported(from the Bay's standpoint) this year. Is that out of the ordinary?

... imported from where? What on Earth are you talking about?  The ice edge is advancing from the North (as it does every single year), but that's not "import", that's just how stuff freezes. The northerly latitudes freeze over before the more southerly latitudes, on account of the shape of the planet.

Are you somehow thinking that ice from the Arctic ocean will make it southward out of the Arctic basin, all the way along the Northwest Passages, then turn east through the Fury and Hecla strait, south again through Foxe Basin and ultimately into Hudson Bay?  When these are already solidly covered with newly-formed first year ice?

Just... what?

Did you read the name of this thread? I thought the idea was to be able to ask something without being insulted. I have gone back and watched Polarview now and see that for the most part the ice formed in the northern part. You could have shown a lot more character by just explaining that.

I thought so as well but apparently this is not the case. Maybe we should create a "Really Stupid Questions" thread and leave this one for the "Know it Alls".

[magnamentis]

Does Hudson Bay usually freeze over before it gets pumped full of ice? There appears to be a pretty good chance it will get imported(from the Bay's standpoint) this year. Is that out of the ordinary?

... imported from where? What on Earth are you talking about?  The ice edge is advancing from the North (as it does every single year), but that's not "import", that's just how stuff freezes. The northerly latitudes freeze over before the more southerly latitudes, on account of the shape of the planet.

Are you somehow thinking that ice from the Arctic ocean will make it southward out of the Arctic basin, all the way along the Northwest Passages, then turn east through the Fury and Hecla strait, south again through Foxe Basin and ultimately into Hudson Bay?  When these are already solidly covered with newly-formed first year ice?

Just... what?

Did you read the name of this thread? I thought the idea was to be able to ask something without being insulted. I have gone back and watched Polarview now and see that for the most part the ice formed in the northern part. You could have shown a lot more character by just explaining that.

hehe... exactly what i thought but then if i had replied referring to the thread title that would have sounded like an offense against you so i refrained to do so, only you could do that LOL

however i share his conclusions and the explanation why, just no need for the condescending tone IMO. enjoy further and yes, perhaps @Shared Humanity is right (JK)

wish you all a nice week though

[Tigertown]

I guess I asked a humdinger of a stupid question. I had been watching Polarview. and it looked just like the ice was coming down through that last little  narrow passage into Foxe Basin and then migrating south. After zooming in, it appears that it may be forming inside the Basin Area instead of passing through. I still have lingering doubts that some cold slush or whatever might be slipping through then freezing back solid. If not it's a pretty good optical illusion.

[jdallen]

I guess I asked a humdinger of a stupid question. I had been watching Polarview. and it looked just like the ice was coming down through that last little  narrow passage into Foxe Basin and then migrating south. After zooming in, it appears that it may be forming inside the Basin Area instead of passing through. I still have lingering doubts that some cold slush or whatever might be slipping through then freezing back solid. If not it's a pretty good optical illusion.

Not enough flow, not fast enough Tigertown.  Just old-fashioned ice forming in place.  The Foxe basin has always been cold, and with air spilling out of the arctic, even the current "superheated" arctic air, is plenty cold enough to start it freezing over.  It's not that deep, and didn't get particularly warm.

[johnm33]

Tt If you look at the salinity animations in Hy-com you may form the opinion that the water passing through Fury and Hecla is relatively fresh, so easier to freeze.

[Cate]

So is this the highest daily mean temp above 80N ever recorded (by DMI, at any rate) for this date?

http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/meant80n.uk.php

[Tigertown]

Tt If you look at the salinity animations in Hy-com you may form the opinion that the water passing through Fury and Hecla is relatively fresh, so easier to freeze.

That makes sense.

[TerryM]

So is this the highest daily mean temp above 80N ever recorded (by DMI, at any rate) for this date?

http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/meant80n.uk.php

Thumbing back through DMI is seems certain that this is so at least since 1958. I haven't even found a close second for either side of the hump.


We live in exciting times.
Terry

[magnamentis]

So is this the highest daily mean temp above 80N ever recorded (by DMI, at any rate) for this date?

http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/meant80n.uk.php

Thumbing back through DMI is seems certain that this is so at least since 1958. I haven't even found a close second for either side of the hump.


We live in exciting times.
Terry

this and it's getting even warmer the next few days, another 5C up i'd guess

[jdallen]

So is this the highest daily mean temp above 80N ever recorded (by DMI, at any rate) for this date?

http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/meant80n.uk.php

Thumbing back through DMI is seems certain that this is so at least since 1958. I haven't even found a close second for either side of the hump.


We live in exciting times.
Terry

this and it's getting even warmer the next few days, another 5C up i'd guess

Climate Reanalyzer has near zero temps reaching within a couple hundred miles of the pole.  That will definitely keep it warm.

[Glenn Tamblyn]

Those temps on Climate Reanalyser are just bat-shit crazy. Actually suggesting climbing above zero near the pole briefly.

PIOMASS for November is going to look very, very interesting. Could this be the pre-conditioning for 'the big one' next year?

I hope Andrew Slater is able to continue his degree-days freezing graph for this year. Might be quite stunning.

[bbr2314]

Those temps on Climate Reanalyser are just bat-shit crazy. Actually suggesting climbing above zero near the pole briefly.

PIOMASS for November is going to look very, very interesting. Could this be the pre-conditioning for 'the big one' next year?

I hope Andrew Slater is able to continue his degree-days freezing graph for this year. Might be quite stunning.

Unfortunately Andrew Slater died earlier this year. The graphs have continued updating but I unfortunately think they may stop at the end of the year. RIP, and **** you 2016.

[oren]

The DMI temps are jaw-dropping. Just when I think it's gonna come down when the peripheral ice freezes over, it's coming up instead.

[Tigertown]

Those temps on Climate Reanalyser are just bat-shit crazy. Actually suggesting climbing above zero near the pole briefly.

PIOMASS for November is going to look very, very interesting. Could this be the pre-conditioning for 'the big one' next year?

I hope Andrew Slater is able to continue his degree-days freezing graph for this year. Might be quite stunning.

Tealight to the rescue:

[seaicesailor]

Those temps on Climate Reanalyser are ...

PIOMASS for November is going to look very, very interesting. Could this be the pre-conditioning for 'the big one' next year?

It was said before that Autumn with a very late refreeze such as the one experiencing might precondition for a rebound rather than a crash given the amount of extra heat being released, but that is a weak speculation based on a very little number of examples and, as we are seeing this season other factors in this abnormal climate such as extra humidity, whacked weather and ocean currents play their roles. Who knows if 2017 will look more like 2013 or go below 2012. My feeling is that, given the lack of MYI (and further loses during winter if ice drifts more or less as norm) and the off the chart NH temps in general, a sunny melting season breaking the 2013-2016 streak of cloudy summers will bring a record year.
But a repetition of 2013 might as well happen, why not? It looked so bad in march 2013, so so bad...

[TerryM]

I'm showing -.9 C at the pole according to nullschool at 4:00 AM EST today, 11/15/2016.


Terry

[Tarkis]

Not sure if anyone has already mentioned NASA's recent article on the 2015/16 arctic winter cyclone.

http://www.nasa.gov/feature/goddard/2016/extremely-warm-2015-16-winter-cyclone-weakened-arctic-sea-ice-pack

My question is, what are the chances of a repeat of such an event this year?

[DoomInTheUK]

...
My question is, what are the chances of a repeat of such an event this year?

A lot more likely with warmer waters surrounding a smaller extent. The impact could be worse too as the ice is in an even worse state now than last year.

Winter in the Arctic seems to be destabilised at the moment. Let's hope things settle down and we get something like normal temps soon or 2017 will be interesting...in a Chinese kind of way.

[abbottisgone]

Thumbing back through DMI is seems certain that this is so at least since 1958. I haven't even found a close second for either side of the hump.


We live in exciting times.
Terry

I would have said that there are some close examples to what is on the left hand side of the hump, but the right side is certainly unprecedented.

The world is truly watching, you can bet...so, beware of panic I say!

Going thru the years the right side starts to slowly get out of control,... until it just starts to get just a little bit crazier more often:  so I think we are seeing something that has been defined by the past record as indicative of a true signal of things to come.

[dnem]

Been following Wip's combined SIE and SIA graphs but would like to see Antartica data only as well.  What is the best site for up-to-date graphs and data for Antartica?  Having troubling finding them.

Thanks.

[magnamentis]

Been following Wip's combined SIE and SIA graphs but would like to see Antartica data only as well.  What is the best site for up-to-date graphs and data for Antartica?  Having troubling finding them.

Thanks.

often you can use the same sites for both, arctic and antarctic, just switching between the two, what i would like more and more to see is a well established interactive chart for global sea ice, similar to those, which as well are the answer to your question.

https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent

http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/charctic-interactive-sea-ice-graph/

[dnem]

Too funny. In the hundreds of times I've viewed those charts I never noticed the Antarctica tabs!

[oren]

dnem there's a thread on this forum dealing with sea ice extent around Antarctica.

[dnem]

Thanks Oren.  Information overload 

[dnem]

OK, 'nuther one for you all.

I've seen a few references to the "upcoming 65N SSW"?

What is that referring to?

Thanks.

[Gray-Wolf]

Some models are showing a Sudden Stratographic Warming in the next week or so. This can be quite disruptive to N. Hemisphere weather patterns but then can have very little impact? As I understand it the Strat is forced to warm and those changes then propagate down into the troposphere. I'm sure others will give you a fuller explanation that I can't!

But Sudden Stratographic Warming centred over 65N

[dnem]

Thanks G-W.  Just a poor biologist doing my best to hang in here!

[jdallen]

Can we please move the weather discussion out of this thread?

[Gray-Wolf]

Sorry jdallan but ,seeing as it concerned the blasting apart of the Polar Vortex, I thought here would be the place?

I cannot find a dedicated weather thread though or we'd probably not needed to have posted?

As it is the SSW , should it occur, could have a great impact on re-freeze ( esp. so early in the season with a PV that has already split and now faces an SSW) and so could form part of the jigsaw of data need to understand the upcoming winter? Even the QBO glitch , last Feb, could be linked seeing as they are both stratospheric winds descending through the troposphere to the surface?

[jdallen]

Sorry jdallan but ,seeing as it concerned the blasting apart of the Polar Vortex, I thought here would be the place?

I cannot find a dedicated weather thread though or we'd probably not needed to have posted?

It now has a home:

http://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,1779.0.html

[Shared Humanity]

The question belonged here as it is the Stupid Questions thread although I also don't know much about SSW so it can't be that stupid or maybe....it is and so am I. At any rate, it was not a weather discussion. It was a single question.

[jdallen]

The question belonged here as it is the Stupid Questions thread although I also don't know much about SSW so it can't be that stupid or maybe....it is and so am I. At any rate, it was not a weather discussion. It was a single question.

With respect, it was getting quite a bit past just answering your question, SH

[oren]

With respect, it was getting quite a bit past just answering your question, SH

Three short lines (which I found useful as well), I really can't understand your gripe.

[ktonine]

Is there a repository for the raw data values in the DMI N80 charts?

Just eyeballing the charts it looks like the baseline FFDs from the end of the melt season until now is about 1300, while this year is probably close to 600 -- a deficit of 700 FDDs.  For the entire season the the baseline is a little above 4000 with recent years slightly below that.  A deficit of 700 FDDs for the season would imply a thickness growth reduction of about 0.3m.

[dnem]

No there's not.  I raised the idea of digitizing the charts to extract FDD a few days ago and someone actually did it using Python.  It's on one of the threads.  I'll try and find it.

[dnem]

Check out
Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #694 on: November 14, 2016, 11:27:46 PM

[ktonine]

Check out
Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #694 on: November 14, 2016, 11:27:46 PM

dnem- thanks. 

I had seen Tealight's post, but the numbers he has are for the entire year, not the freezing season.  His annual numbers also disagree quite a bit with the numbers Chris Reynold's used on his dosbat blog -- where the annual total was under 4000 for recent years.

Unfortunately I'm not a graphics wizard otherwise I'd digitize them myself.  I'd have to pixel count and that's just too boring

[Jim Hunt]

No there's not.

Actually there is. For the 2016 numbers see:

ftp.dmi.dk/plus80N_temperatureindex/

For previous years see the attachment, which is actually a ZIP archive.

[ktonine]

No there's not.

Actually there is. For the 2016 numbers see:

ftp.dmi.dk/plus80N_temperatureindex/

For previous years see the attachment, which is actually a ZIP archive.

Thanks, Jim