CC and Terrorism

[wili]

http://time.com/4113801/climate-change-terrorism/

Why Climate Change and Terrorism Are Connected

This seemed particularly topical given recent events.

Drought in Syria has contributed to instability

Democratic presidential candidate Bernie Sanders used the terrorist attacks in Paris to call for action to address climate change at a primary debate Saturday. But, while the plea attracted ridicule across the political spectrum, many academics and national security experts agree that climate change contributes to an uncertain world where terrorism can thrive.

[AbruptSLR]

To help connect the dots, I repost the following three linked articles indicating that the current climate change (and terrorism) related refuges from the Middle East could soon (by/before 2020) be added to by tens of millions of refuges from both sub-Saharan Africa and the North Indian Subcontinent (also due to extreme drought conditions):

1) Per the linked BBC article, the UN estimates that by 2020 over 50 million sub-Saharan African will move to North Africa and Europe due to desertification:

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-34790661

Extract: According to the UN, over 50 million people could move from the desertified areas of sub-Saharan Africa towards North Africa and Europe by 2020."


2) Per the linked The Guardian article, the current Super El Nino is already accelerating sub-Saharan African drought conditions above the average projections made by the UN:
http://www.theguardian.com/global-development/2015/nov/16/el-nino-food-shortages-floods-disease-and-droughts-set-to-put-millions-at-risk?CMP=twt_a-environment_b-gdneco?CMP=twt_a-environment_b-gdneco

Extract: "This year, a strong El Niño has been building since March and its effects are already being seen in Ethiopia, Somalia, Kenya, Malawi, Indonesia and across Central America, according to the World Meteorological Organisation. The phenomenon is also being held responsible for uncontrolled fires in forests in Indonesia and in the Amazon rainforest."


3) Per the linked NOAA article, and associated image, a moderate El Nino sometime before 2020 could add many more (millions more?) climate change refuges to the 50 million sub-Saharan refuges projected by the UN to moving into North Africa and Europe by 2020



https://www.climate.gov/news-features/blogs/enso/enso-and-indian-monsoon%E2%80%A6-not-straightforward-you%E2%80%99d-think

Caption for the second attached image: "Comparison of the Oceanic Niño Index to Indian monsoon rainfall from 1950-2012. La Niña years are blue, neutral years are gray, and El Niño years are red. El Niño years tend to be drier than average, but the strongest El Niño of the century (1997-98) produced a monsoon season with above-average rainfall. Graph adapted from Kumar et al. 2006."

[CraigsIsland]

Framing Climate Change as a "Threat Multiplier" is appropriate and topical for political/social/economic discussions.

How this is a "surprise" for those who took haste to what Bernie Sanders said - not a good sign that people understand the implications of a changing climate.

As Poli Sci major - Terrorism/War/Genocide etc. were my most studied topics in addition to Climate Change politics.

We need attitude change quickly for us to accept that we are facing serious challenges in corralling/adapting to climate change. 

[jai mitchell]

The UN recently stated that there would be an additional 20 million refugees from sub-sahara africa into northern Africa and Europe by 2020.

2C of globally averaged warming in the GCMs produces 3.5-4C of warming in this region.

The implications are devastating.

[Martin Gisser]

Remarks by CIA Director John O. Brennan as Prepared for Delivery at the Center for Strategic & International Studies Global Security Forum 2015

November 16, 2015

https://www.cia.gov/news-information/speeches-testimony/2015-speeches-testimony/brennan-remarks-at-csis-global-security-forum-2015.html

(...)

When CIA analysts look for deeper causes of this rising instability, they find nationalistic, sectarian, and technological factors that are eroding the structure of the international system. They also see socioeconomic trends, the impact of climate change, and other elements that are cause for concern.

(...)

Regions with burgeoning youth populations, such as the Arab world, have been unable to achieve the growth needed to reduce high unemployment rates. Perceptions of growing inequality have resulted in more assertive street politics and populism. At the same time, slower growth has left these nations with fewer resources to devote to economic, humanitarian, and peacekeeping assistance to address these challenges.

Mankind’s relationship with the natural world is aggravating these problems and is a potential source of crisis itself. Last year was the warmest on record, and this year is on track to be even warmer.

Extreme weather, along with public policies affecting food and water supplies, can worsen or create humanitarian crises. Of most immediate concern, sharply reduced crop yields in multiple places simultaneously could trigger a shock in food prices with devastating effect, especially in already fragile regions such as Africa, the Middle East, and South Asia. Compromised access to food and water greatly increases the prospect for famine and deadly epidemics.

(...)

[AbruptSLR]

The linked articles make it clear that experts believe that climate change directly contributes to promote growth of terrorism:

http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2015/11/16/3722355/bernie-sanders-climate-change-national-security-paris-climate-talks/

“In fact, climate change is directly related to the growth of terrorism,” Bernie Sanders said during Saturday’s debate. “And if we do not get our act together and listen to what the scientists say you’re going to see countries all over the world — this is what the CIA says — they’re going to be struggling over limited amounts of water, limited amounts of land to grow their crops. And you’re going to see all kinds of international conflict.”

http://talkingpointsmemo.com/dc/terrorism-climate-change

Extract: "For years, those in the national security community has considered climate change threat to American interests here and abroad, and are now exploring how climate change is exacerbating the conditions that lead to civil unrest.
Experts tell TPM that the national security community is taking seriously the idea that climate change, primarily by causing resource scarcity, is leading to more instability in regions vulnerable to unrest. That in turn, some believe, is helping to create the breeding grounds for terrorism, among other types of human conflict."

See also:
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/christopher-preble/does-climate-change-actually-fuel-terrorism_b_8593244.html

[AbruptSLR]

Boko Haram has pledged loyalty to ISIS and is benefitting from climate change induced refugees ins Sub-Saharan Africa:

http://www.trust.org/item/20151111103702-lwas6/?source=jtDontmiss

Extract: "The growing flow of migrants into drought-prone Niger, whose own population often struggles with hunger, raises tough questions about why people are moving from one risky place to another and how to head off related tensions, experts say.

Intensifying conflict, political instability and militant groups like Boko Haram are driving people into Niger from surrounding Libya, Chad, Nigeria and Mali, according to Barbara Bendandi, an environment expert with the International Organization for Migration (IOM)."

[AbruptSLR]

The four attached images from the linked UN cites show four different cases (Present, 2050 with low emissions and high adaption, 2050 with high emissions and high adaption, and 2050 with high emissions and no adaption) of the distribution of global hunger & climate vulnerability.  The indicated areas are at risk of having/creating (more) climate refugees that could be radicalized.


http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/food-insecurity-index/


See also:
http://www.dailyclimate.org/tdc-newsroom/2015/12/cop21-food-security-climate-change-paris

[Tom_Mazanec]

Terrorists benefit from Climate Change:
https://www.eurasiareview.com/02082019-climate-change-expands-the-terrorist-threat-analysis/

[DrTskoul]

Terrorists benefit from Climate Change:
https://www.eurasiareview.com/02082019-climate-change-expands-the-terrorist-threat-analysis/

That will be the least of our worries. Unless a big terrorist attack,  results to a nuclear retaliation.