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JimD

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2016 Predictions
« on: December 28, 2015, 06:13:38 PM »
2016 Predictions

Rules: 

1.  NO Arguing with others predictions.  If you don't like theirs make the opposite prediction and a year from now you can be laughed at (or if you are lucky you can lord it over everyone).
2.  Predictions need to be related to climate change, collapse dynamics, carrying capacity issues, global politics/economic issues, technology developments related to the former items and such - i.e. relevant to the blog.  Who is going to win the Super Bowl or that funny form of football they play in the colonies are out of bounds.
3.  Keep predictions brief in that there is no requirement to present all of your reasoning - or even any.  Lots of predictions are fine however.  No links.
4.  If there are obvious rule additions needed let me know and I will edit them into the list.

This is intended to be sort of a fun brainstorming exercise.
We do not err because truth is difficult to see. It is visible at a glance. We err because this is more comfortable. Alexander Solzhenitsyn

How is it conceivable that all our technological progress - our very civilization - is like the axe in the hand of the pathological criminal? Albert Einstein

Buddy

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Re: 2016 Predictions
« Reply #1 on: December 28, 2015, 06:27:26 PM »
Arctic ice sheet:  Most of it will be TRASHED by late September 2016 (all but a 200 - 300 mile wide swath of ice butting up against the Canadian Archipeligo).  This is the VERY SAME statement I have made for the last 3 or 4 years....and it appears to be "on schedule".  Needless to say....it will be a record low extent year for the Arctic ice.

Price of Oil:  December 31st, 2016....will be $60 - $80 range.  Oil stocks will be in an intermediate UPSWING that will last perhaps INTO 2018 (before it starts its NEXT STEP DOWN).

Greenland ice sheet:  Bad year for Greenland.....especially if you don't like melted snow and ice.  Likely record melting....perhaps on a WTF scale (note:  WTF is NOT in the glossary:).

US Elections:  If the Arctic ice sheet does as I think it is LIKELY to do above.....global warming will move UP the scale of "important issues" in the US.  The likelihood of SIGNIFICANT NUMBERS of "new record high temps" in the US....like 2012....along with the trashing of the Arctic ice....will force voters to look at the obvious (not ALL of them....but global warming will move up from about 50% think its an important issue....to 65% - 70%.

In all.....2016 will be a rooster comes home to roost year for global warming.


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Neven

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Re: 2016 Predictions
« Reply #2 on: December 28, 2015, 07:04:27 PM »
A large amount of weird weather wouldn't surprise me in the least, maybe heavy flooding somewhere in Europe, or other things that shouldn't be happening for hundreds of years, because they happened just a few years ago.

Massive Greenland glacier retreat.

Arctic won't be sea ice-free.

More action in the courts with regard to climate change litigation.

The global-financial-crisis-is-now-behind-us bubble will be inflated some more, leading to record emissions.

Lots of refugees (many of them not real refugees) will pour into Europe during spring and summer.

Lots of fear, draconic measures, but no significant terrorist attacks.

FC Barcelona wins the Champions League.  ;) ;D
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AbruptSLR

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Re: 2016 Predictions
« Reply #3 on: December 28, 2015, 09:17:19 PM »
1. Sometime in 2016 the running monthly total of NASA's GISTemp LOTIv3, at 12m average elevation, baselined to 1880-1909, will exceed 1.2oC.
2. The Pine Island Ice Shelf, PIIS, will have a major calving event, sometime in 2016.
3. A La Nina event will not officially be recognized in 2016.
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
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OldLeatherneck

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Re: 2016 Predictions
« Reply #4 on: December 28, 2015, 09:55:47 PM »
What a fun way to jump back on the Forum after a longer than anticipated hiatus.  Hopefully will be more active in the months to come. 

1. Arctic Sea Ice Extent (ADS-NIPR) will set a new record low maximum in February or March of 2016, peaking between 13.5 M and 13.8M Km2.

2. September 2016 minimums for both area and extent will set new record lows, although not low enough to declare an ice-free Arctic.

3. By September of 2016, Neven will be able to go windsurfing within 50 nautical miles of the North Pole.

4. Globally, there will be one ore more mass casualty event due to AGW/CC induced extreme weather.

5. The US Presidential election will continue to be dominated by the bizarre theatrics and histrionics of many of the fear-mongering GOP candidates who have no idea of how to govern in a complex global society.

6. The Chicago Cubs may actually buy enough talent this off-season to advance to the World Series in October 2016.

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theoldinsane

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Re: 2016 Predictions
« Reply #5 on: December 28, 2015, 09:59:00 PM »
1 Arctic SIE maximum will reach a new minimum.

2 Arctic SIE in september will reach the second lowest (behind 2012).

3 At least one climate related black swan event worse than ever before in human history.  But hopefully it will be a wake up call for humantiy.

4 The yearly temperature anomaly in Sweden will be att least 2.5 C above the 1961-1990 baseline (2.23 C in 2014)

JimD

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Re: 2016 Predictions
« Reply #6 on: December 29, 2015, 12:59:05 AM »
As usual I have a lot of items.  I stopped because I felt bad lol.  OLN the cubs!  Really?  Barcelona? ..umm bullfighting?

Climate
1.  Arctic sea ice extent, or lack thereof, is still so far below human radar that it does not matter whether there is a minimum or not as no one is going to be paying attention (excepting this blog).
2.  All climate trends will of course be down for the duration of our lives, but once again I can't see anyone paying attention yet to the kinds of changes which will be the norm for some years yet.
3.  2016 will set another global high temp record.  But only by a little bit and see #2.
4.  CO2 monthly mean will not drop below 400ppm in 2016 and no one alive today will ever see it below that number again.  See #2 again.

Security
1.  War and the business of war (and economics of course) will continue to dominate global affairs and national directions - I am including refuges/immigrants in this category.
2.  Climate change and carrying capacity issues will continue to worsen but will not yet be severe enough to trigger wide scale disruptions.
3.  Global grain harvest will be adversely impacted by the El Nino weather and localized effects of climate change, but not to the point that food supplies will be more than a distribution and affordability issue.
4.  The refuge/immigration issue will seriously weaken the EU governing authority and structure (this is in my opinion the issue most likely to the most significant event in 2016 as the sovereignty issue has the capability of tearing the Eu apart)
5.  While the intervention of Russia in Syria has tipped the tide there and by the end of the year Syrian territory will be largely free of the armies of the radical Islamists there is no near term end to Al Queada, ISIS and the other flavors of radical Islam.  There will likely be several significant terrorist acts in Europe and the US with the prime fallout being actions which further the radical Islamist agenda (and also the agendas of the radical Christian and Jewish groups).
6.  US defense/intelligence budgets are likely to rise as well as those in the EU countries.
7.  I expect that the situation in Ukraine will blow up a bit again (since the US wants it too) but that the current status quo will be in place at the end of the year.
8.  Some place not on our current radar will find a way to blow up and cause unexpected problems.  Afghanistan has great potential to once again fall to the Taliban.

Energy
1.  Oil & natural gas prices will remain very low throughout the year and average around $40-45 bbl.
2.  The price of coal is likely to drift somewhat lower.
3.  Large scale renewables will not show significant growth due to the effects of the global recession, more expensive debt and declining subsidies
4.  In the US electric car sales will remain stalled and this condition will continue until there is a significant increase in the cost of fuel.

Economics
1.  The global recession will deepen.  In countries which are heavily dependent upon commodity exports this downturn will be severe.  Expect debt default problems, a few destabilized governments.
2.  China is not at bottom yet and until they are there it will drag everyone down with them.
3.  The US economy will slow significantly but may avoid a technical recession.
4.  European economies will see a broad range of trouble especially with the southern tier.
5.  There will be a desperate search for growth and the policy decisions working that issue will set the stage for even more trouble in later years.
6.  the economic slowdown will cause the typical short term fluctuations in various emissions and the use of various energies and this will be trumpeted by many as indicators of real change - sort of like Senator Inahoe thinking a snowstorm disproves climate change.

Politics
1.  There will be strong and continued growth in extreme nationalist political movements as this is a natural byproduct of decline/collapse.  This is markedly strong in Europe and there is growth in the US as well. 
2.  Hillary Clinton will win the US presidency, but this will not change in any significant way US national security viewpoints nor its general approach to using force.  She is after all a liberal in name only and a solid member of the hawkish foreign policy adherents.
3.  Republicans will retain control of Congress and the US government will be largely unable to fulfill its function - in other words more of the same.

Collapse Dynamics
1.  Europe is at the top of the list currently as the most likely to see a backing away from civilizational complexity - the EU in my opinion is a dead man walking and we will see a lot of progress towards its demise this year.  But that eventuality will still be some time away.
2.  No progress will be made on curtailing population growth nor reducing our negative effects on carrying capacity.
3.  No progress will be made on halting climate change.
4.  Many countries and locations will see a drop in quality of life, but this will be the norm for the duration of our lives and we are not yet near the points where large scale social collapse will occur.

All in all a year pretty much like this last one.  Crunch time is some time away still and we have lots of time to make things worse.  Maybe we should do a predictions for 2020 also?
We do not err because truth is difficult to see. It is visible at a glance. We err because this is more comfortable. Alexander Solzhenitsyn

How is it conceivable that all our technological progress - our very civilization - is like the axe in the hand of the pathological criminal? Albert Einstein

Theta

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Re: 2016 Predictions
« Reply #7 on: December 29, 2015, 02:04:25 PM »
I honestly think that this year will be the year where everything falls apart:

In terms of the Climate we have a strong El Nino which is posed to have a major effect on the increase in global average temperature along with generating storms that will damage key infrastructure. Secondly, the Arctic is really on its last legs and the weather is going to be really conductive towards accelerated melting because of the El Nino and the great warmth of the earth, so the albedo and methane feedbacks are going to accelerate dramatically.

In energy, I think we are about to fall off the Seneca Cliff, but it will be 90 degrees straight downwards overnight. The reason for this is due to extreme demand destruction which has led to low oil prices and thus a wave of defaults are about to cause everything to fall down into a deflationary black hole.

This leads to economics where the economy will suddenly crash and civilisation as we know it crashes and thus the geopolitical situation will get worse dramatically all over the globe.

One final note, as a result of these factors along with the collapse of civilisation, I feel that we will end up losing our heat shield from the existence of civilisation and thus our extinction will begin this year, not sure when, possibly in the summer as I believe that civilisation may be able to limp to that point before suffering an aneurysm and just disappears flat out. The time for which everyone dies could range from a few weeks, as human habitat disappears within a few weeks meaning cannibalism will probably be the only thing that allows people to keep themselves from going hungry as crops can't be cultivated in the extreme weather, nor can animals be hunted as everything will drop like flies, trees, animals, keystone creatures, and the ecosystem will just disappear like a candle, although if we're lucky we may last a few months to five years maybe. 
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Buddy

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Re: 2016 Predictions
« Reply #8 on: December 29, 2015, 02:19:06 PM »
Quote
I honestly think that this year will be the year where everything falls apart

Happy New Year:)
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JimD

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Re: 2016 Predictions
« Reply #9 on: December 29, 2015, 03:16:39 PM »
I found a 2016 predictions post from Raul Ilargi at The Automatic Earth blog.

http://www.theautomaticearth.com/2015/12/2016-is-an-easy-year-to-predict/

He is a more pessimistic than I and predicts severe effects in the world of global finance.  TAE focus's on economics and finance.

Deflation
Plunging commodity prices to include oil
Serious economic dislocation
We do not err because truth is difficult to see. It is visible at a glance. We err because this is more comfortable. Alexander Solzhenitsyn

How is it conceivable that all our technological progress - our very civilization - is like the axe in the hand of the pathological criminal? Albert Einstein

JimD

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Re: 2016 Predictions
« Reply #10 on: December 29, 2015, 03:31:57 PM »
Council on Foreign Relations  Preventive Priorities Survey: 2016

So, Not predictions but things they see that need to be prevented.  The cynic would say that they might not be 100% successful.  One could even say that many of their items are a given.  Prevention being a misnomer...perhaps management would be better?  Very interesting note is that the survey this piece was based upon predates the Paris attacks.

http://www.cfr.org/conflict-assessment/preventive-priorities-survey-2016/p37364?cid=ex-Atlantic-Uri_piece-preventive_priorities_survey-20151217

Quote
Top U.S. conflict prevention priorities in 2016 include

the intensification of the civil war in Syria;
a mass casualty attack on the U.S. homeland or a treaty ally;
a highly disruptive cyberattack on critical U.S. infrastructure;
a severe crisis with or in North Korea;
political instability in EU countries stemming from the influx of refugees and migrants;
continued political fracturing of Libya;
heightened tensions between Israelis and Palestinians;
intensified political violence in Turkey;
increased political instability in Egypt;
increased violence and instability in Afghanistan; and
continued fracturing of Iraq due to territorial gains by the self-proclaimed Islamic State and ongoing Sunni-Shia sectarian violence.
We do not err because truth is difficult to see. It is visible at a glance. We err because this is more comfortable. Alexander Solzhenitsyn

How is it conceivable that all our technological progress - our very civilization - is like the axe in the hand of the pathological criminal? Albert Einstein

JimD

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Re: 2016 Predictions
« Reply #11 on: December 29, 2015, 04:10:34 PM »
I'm having fun with this.  Once again I am the optimist.

Stratfor - A private US intelligence operation.  One can consider their views a direct line into neocon views.  It is in some depth as they market their 'viewpoints' throughout the US policy making world.

https://www.stratfor.com/forecast/annual-forecast-2016

1.  This is the year when Turkey, nervous but more politically coherent than it was last year, will likely make a military move into northern Syria while trying to enlarge its footprint in northern Iraq. Turkey will not only confront the Islamic State but will also keep Kurdish expansion in check as it raises the stakes in its confrontations with its old rivals, Russia and Iran.

2.  And the more the Islamic State's conventional capabilities weaken, the more actively the group and its affiliates will try to conduct terrorist attacks outside the Middle East to maintain its relevance. This in turn will drive competition within the jihadist landscape as al Qaeda factions in the Arabian Peninsula, the Maghreb, West Africa and South Asia try to keep pace.

3.  The jihadist threat will fuel Islamophobia in the West and catalyze the fragmentation of Europe. Border controls and calls for preserving national identity will dilute the EU principle of allowing free movement of people. Closed borders will create a bottleneck of migrants in the Western Balkans, a region already rife with ethnic and religious tension. But the main story in Europe for 2016 will center on France and Germany, the two pillars of the European Union. Both will be preparing for 2017 elections, and both are leaning in a more nationalist and Euroskeptic direction. Over time, Germany will become more outspoken and much less willing to compromise on matters of EU integration.

4.  The continuation of quantitative easing and another year of low oil prices will have a palliative effect on the deeper frictions in Europe as global commodity markets continue to suffer. The addition of Iranian oil to the market in the first half of the year will offset a drop in U.S. production.

5.  China will not bring about relief in commodity prices, either.

6.  Low commodity prices and rising U.S. interest rates, which affect currencies, will also spell another difficult year for much of Latin America.

7.  The defining events of 2016 will raise apprehension around the world, leading into what will likely be an even more tumultuous 2017 as an array of developing conflicts comes into sharper focus. The essential thing to bear in mind is that all these trends are connected. The U.S.-Russia standoff, surging nationalism in Europe, Turkey's re-emergence and other geopolitical currents will tie in to and feed off of one another. We will keep our eyes fixed on the bigger picture in 2016, for there is a much more complex one developing in 2017.

Then it goes into detail. 
We do not err because truth is difficult to see. It is visible at a glance. We err because this is more comfortable. Alexander Solzhenitsyn

How is it conceivable that all our technological progress - our very civilization - is like the axe in the hand of the pathological criminal? Albert Einstein

bbr2314

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Re: 2016 Predictions
« Reply #12 on: December 29, 2015, 07:23:40 PM »
1) Hudson Bay + Baffin Bay will retain abnormal amounts of sea ice through summer, more than ever before

2) Northern Europe/perhaps the NE US will see a corresponding period of never-before-seen springtime/early summer dreariness, possibly persisting through the entire summer for the UK/NRN Europe

3) Agree that Turkey will make moves into Northern Syria

4) The Middle East in general will degrade further

5) The US economy will continue performing better relative to the rest of the world, though our worsening weather will begin to impact infrastructure in a serious way -- good in that it's a wake up call, bad in that people may not do anything about it

6) Heat waves this coming summer will be the most severe we have ever seen across the entire NHEM
___________________

My biggest concern is that the Global Elite are now realizing that climate change is occurring in a horrific way, and that the only solution is massive depopulation. If the alternative to massive depopulation is 100% of humans die, then wiping out 90-99% of people so that a tiny minority may survive actually becomes rational.

There is no feasible way India or the billions of people in Africa can industrialize without seriously harming both their own environment and that of the West, so I do not anticipate they will be allowed to do this.

That means that a nuclear war is actually a plausible and possibly a beneficial solution to humanity's survival prospects. If I have thought of this, I can guarantee some thinktanks have come to the same conclusion -- or that they will soon come to the same conclusions -- and that leaves me thinking that most people will be dead soon. I think we have a few years before this happens, but 2016 will push us further down this path.

On the bright side, since negativity is useless without solutions to the problems: I think the Big Island of Hawai'i makes an attractive location to move to if ^ is inevitable. The range of elevations (sea level -> 13K feet) provide a buffer against potential climactic impacts of nuclear war, as even a 20-30-40 degree drop in global temperatures would leave areas close to sea level inhabitable, and the enormous insulating presence of the Pacific would also delay or outright deny the worst impacts of nuclear winter.

Besides that, there is a huge amount of ocean between the Island and other continents, and even if Hilo and Kona were hit by bombs, most of the land would still be habitable, with farming/etc still possible. With less than 200K people today, there are no resource constraints, and these would be made even less constraining if half the population were wiped out by whatever may come. I would think it would also be one of the last places the US Gov't would be able to maintain a functional presence/any semblance of order.

JimD

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Re: 2016 Predictions
« Reply #13 on: December 29, 2015, 10:14:42 PM »
....My biggest concern is that the Global Elite are now realizing that climate change is occurring in a horrific way, and that the only solution is massive depopulation. If the alternative to massive depopulation is 100% of humans die, then wiping out 90-99% of people so that a tiny minority may survive actually becomes rational.

There is no feasible way India or the billions of people in Africa can industrialize without seriously harming both their own environment and that of the West, so I do not anticipate they will be allowed to do this.............

This has been my argument here and on other blogs for years (and there is no doubt in my mind that our security experts figured this out long ago).  Dramatic depopulation is the only way forward.  So do it by plan as fast as you can or reality/collapse will do it for you.  The fastest way to reduce population should we fail to plan is the historical standard - famine.  An inevitable result of failing to address carrying capacity - not enough food ... a lot less people.  If you can't figure out a way to plan for it intelligently you just let it happen and plan to survive it.
We do not err because truth is difficult to see. It is visible at a glance. We err because this is more comfortable. Alexander Solzhenitsyn

How is it conceivable that all our technological progress - our very civilization - is like the axe in the hand of the pathological criminal? Albert Einstein

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2016 Predictions
« Reply #14 on: December 29, 2015, 11:03:57 PM »
....My biggest concern is that the Global Elite are now realizing that climate change is occurring in a horrific way, and that the only solution is massive depopulation. If the alternative to massive depopulation is 100% of humans die, then wiping out 90-99% of people so that a tiny minority may survive actually becomes rational.

There is no feasible way India or the billions of people in Africa can industrialize without seriously harming both their own environment and that of the West, so I do not anticipate they will be allowed to do this.............

This has been my argument here and on other blogs for years (and there is no doubt in my mind that our security experts figured this out long ago).  Dramatic depopulation is the only way forward.  So do it by plan as fast as you can or reality/collapse will do it for you.  The fastest way to reduce population should we fail to plan is the historical standard - famine.  An inevitable result of failing to address carrying capacity - not enough food ... a lot less people.  If you can't figure out a way to plan for it intelligently you just let it happen and plan to survive it.

Sadly, the failings of the rich/powerful have visited famine on the poor/weak more than once in the past:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Bengal_famine_of_1770

Location   Bengal
Period   1769-1773
Total deaths   10 million (see photo)


Extract: "The Great Bengal famine of 1770 was a catastrophic famine between 1769 and 1773 (1176 to 1180 in the Bengali calendar) that affected the lower Gangetic plain of India. The famine is estimated to have caused the deaths of 10 million people, reducing the population to thirty million in Bengal, which included Bihar and parts of Odisha. The Bengali name derives from its origins in the Bengali calendar year 1176. ("Chhiattōr"- "76"; "monnōntór"- "famine" in Bengali).[3] It was caused due to the widespread forced cultivation of opium (forced upon local farmers by the British East India Company as part of its strategy to export it to China) in place of local food crops, resulting in a shortage of grain for local people in Bengal."

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bengal_famine_of_1943

Location   Bengal
Period   1943–44
Total deaths   1.5 to 4 million


Extract: "The Bengal famine of 1943 struck the Bengal Province of pre-partition British India (present-day West Bengal, Odisha, Bihar and Bangladesh) during World War II following the Japanese occupation of Burma. Approximately 3 million people died due to famine. Generally the estimates are between 1.5 and 4 million, taking into account death due to starvation, malnutrition and disease, out of Bengal's 60.3 million population. Half of the victims died from disease after food became available in December 1943. Generally it is thought that there was a serious decrease in food production during that time, coupled with Bengal's continuing export of grain. However, according to Amartya Sen, there was no decrease in food production in 1943 (in fact food production was higher compared to 1941). As in previous Bengal famines, the highest mortality was not in previously very poor groups, but among artisans and small traders whose income vanished when people spent all they had on food and did not employ cobblers, carpenters, etc. The famine also caused major economic and social disruption, ruining millions of families."

Edit: In modern times, I imagine that such oppressed people would join the Maoist Guerrillas well before reaching this condition.
« Last Edit: December 29, 2015, 11:18:48 PM by AbruptSLR »
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
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JimD

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Re: 2016 Predictions
« Reply #15 on: December 30, 2015, 12:27:44 AM »
ASLR

And..

Stalin in 1932-33 deliberately starved as many as 7 million

Mao's famine from 1958-62 was responsible for as many as 30-45 million

and some others in the link. 

http://listverse.com/2013/04/10/10-terrible-famines-in-history/
We do not err because truth is difficult to see. It is visible at a glance. We err because this is more comfortable. Alexander Solzhenitsyn

How is it conceivable that all our technological progress - our very civilization - is like the axe in the hand of the pathological criminal? Albert Einstein

P-maker

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Re: 2016 Predictions
« Reply #16 on: December 30, 2015, 12:59:21 AM »
Gents,

Great famines following major droughts will be the great killers in the coming years, no matter what we do and how we organize ourselves. The devastating flooding events all over the World right now are just part of the prelude.

In the meantime, I give you my best wishes (and worst fears) for the coming year: 

1)   All sensible international organisations (e.g.  IEA, Arctic Council, EEA, UNFCCC, IPCC, WMO, Nordic Council & EU) will come together according to the Paris Agreement and lay all their eggs in the same basket in New York in April 2016. Or, they will start a cock fight over the implications of the Paris Agreement.

2)   A majority of consumers world-wide will in 2016 start asking for healthy local produce based on organic farming and sustainable land-use. Or, they will continue buying the cheapest crap they can find in the supermarket and develop obesity, diabetes and the World’s most expensive health care systems.

3)   A majority of tourists world-wide will in 2016 prefer to travel slowly and respectfully through healthy ecosystems and robust landscapes. Or, they will hurry through amusement parks and shopping centres and fill up their homes with loads of garbage brought home from far-away places they soon forget.

4)   An increasing majority of city-dwellers will in 2016 turn to co-creation of their own futures  in urban open spaces in order to create liveable and sustainable urban ecosystems. Or, they will isolate themselves in poorly built shoeboxes with horrendously in-efficient heating and cooling systems, which will leave homeless people in the streets to suffocate in a terribly polluted and hostile urban environment.

5)   Driven by shear necessity, an increasing number of investment decisions amongst citizens, municipalities and industry will in 2016 seek to achieve resilience through integrated mitigation and adaptation measures. Or, industrialized countries will continue to push other countries down a narrow mitigation road at the same time as these countries will identify a screaming need for immediate adaptation and emergency relief payouts following deadly weather and climate catastrophes.

6)   University people across the World will in 2016 decide to use the Internet for trans-disciplinary research and genuine trans-national collaboration. Or, individual researchers will keep their findings to themselves for years after discovery in order to boost their scientific careers and ultimately bolster their own egos at the most prestigious universities.

7)   An overwhelming majority of pension funds across the globe will in 2016 decide to vote with their feet in order to secure sensible degrowth through clever investments in energy efficiency and free renewable energy sources. Or, pensioners will decide to take as much cash out of their pension schemes as possible and make sure to invest this in un-insured beachfront properties, so they can watch the tide come in and send them to their graves in a hurry.

8)   All members of Neven’s Arctic Sea Ice Blog will in 2016 contribute all they possibly can to climate change risk reduction through clever engagement with decision makers and wise divestments from fossil fuel companies in every decision they make. Or, we will suffocate in our own drivel as the last multi-year sea ice leaves through the Fram Strait to build up a cold “Blob” south of Greenland, which will cast us all into unprecedented havoc, mischievement and overall misery.

Happy New Year!

PS JimD, let me kindly remind you of your own rules put forth at the top of this thread: E.g. no links and no arguing...

Theta

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Re: 2016 Predictions
« Reply #17 on: December 30, 2015, 02:03:24 AM »
I found a 2016 predictions post from Raul Ilargi at The Automatic Earth blog.

http://www.theautomaticearth.com/2015/12/2016-is-an-easy-year-to-predict/

He is a more pessimistic than I and predicts severe effects in the world of global finance.  TAE focus's on economics and finance.

Deflation
Plunging commodity prices to include oil
Serious economic dislocation

This corresponds with my fears about the future, we seem.to have hit the point of no return as demand destruction kills the oil industry and subsequently destroys civilisation and the heat shield that stops us from jumping to 2 or 3 degrees Celsius. This is coupled with the fact that the current el nino is bringing a lot of destruction and is disruptive towards ice thickness, so more disasters are coming it seems...
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Shared Humanity

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Re: 2016 Predictions
« Reply #18 on: December 30, 2015, 01:39:40 PM »
I like the concept of  this thread but we should hold to its rules....no links especially and no need to present a full argument. As originally introduced, this is a way of brainstorming.

Prediction:

The eastern coast of the US will be hit by a minimum of 5 massive storm events in 2016 and they will/can occur at anytime during the coming year. They may be hurricanes or massive nor'easters but the precipitation (rain, ice or snow), barometric pressures and/or wind fields will be described as "unprecedented -historical - one for the ages" until the next one hits. There will be a fierce debate as to whether these are due to global warming or simply variation in weather.

Evangelical Christians will blame the Godless radical homosexual agenda.

Rubikscube

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Re: 2016 Predictions
« Reply #19 on: December 30, 2015, 02:39:47 PM »
I predict there will be an epic drought in the Amazon rainforest, such as has become the custom during recent El Niño years. Water levels are currently 3 meters below average in Manaus.

The pineapple express will hit California sometime in January killing a 4 digit number of people and resulting in the most expensive natural disaster in modern history.

crandles

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Re: 2016 Predictions
« Reply #20 on: December 30, 2015, 02:57:04 PM »
29 Predictions

I find myself agreeing with a lot if not almost all of this.

>No progress will be made on halting climate change.
Might be inclined to suggest only very small progress, but one man's very small progress might well be seen as insignificant progress drowned out by further ghg emissions and/or other effects of CC becoming clearer. More renewables will be installed but ghg emissions will not tumble. Is that slight progress or not? The best news/strongest progress we could hope for would be that cost of renewables continues to tumble at a rapid rate such that we can expect renewables to increasingly be taken up regardless of subsidies. I expect we will need more than a year before we could reach such a conclusion.

Other predictions
Piomas Ice volume will exceed the April average minimum of 22.51 K Km^3 and also exceed the September minimum of 3.789  K Km^3.

Sigmetnow

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Re: 2016 Predictions
« Reply #21 on: December 30, 2015, 04:54:31 PM »
Predictions for 2016

Electric car sales will increase modestly, taking off only when the second generation 2017 models come out.   But when Tesla opens early ordering for its new car that's priced for the masses, the website will crash from high demand. 

Energy Storage will be a big story in 2016.  Gigafactory 1 will become the second largest building in the world.  The location for Gigafactory 2 will be announced.

Energy Efficiency will become more of a thing.  But grid-owners, and people in undeveloped countries, will be the only ones who appreciate it.

I will have grid-tied solar panels installed on my roof.  My neighbor will, too.  This will become a trend.

Robots will outnumber humans on the International Space Station.  The benefits of 3D printing will accelerate, in space and on the ground.

The oil glut will continue, and prices will remain low.  Surviving oil companies will tout "cleaner-burning natural gas."

A few more coal-burning power plants will be built.  They will mostly remain idle.

Nuclear energy will not be widely supported as a major solution.  Neither will fusion.  ;)

Pope Francis will directly accuse fossil fuel companies of "fouling the earth."  Divestment from fossil fuel interests will come to be seen as, "Only logical. *shrug*"

Global greenhouse gas emissions for 2015 will be declared slightly less than 2014.  Much debate will center on whether this "means anything."

England will suffer several more catastrophic floods.  More flood defense money will be spent to reimburse large landowners to let their fields flood, in order to help protect towns and cities.  In high-risk areas, castle moats and riverside pubs will be required to have flood defenses.

Forest areas will increasingly fall victim to plant pests and drought.  The U.S. will suffer from its worst wildfire season ever.

Vertical farming and "alternative foods" will get another look.

Humans will not go extinct.  But many other species will.

Civilization will not collapse.  But "the refugee problem" will worsen.

Democrat Bernie Sanders will be elected President of the United States.  Because many people vote a straight party ticket, many other Republicans will also lose their races.

Reducing inequality -- in the U.S. and globally -- becomes a recognized movement.  Women will play a bigger part in international efforts.  Unusual financial arrangements will be developed to help the poor live better lives.
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

Shared Humanity

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Re: 2016 Predictions
« Reply #22 on: December 30, 2015, 05:56:17 PM »
Coal plants will continue to be built and fired up across the world, exactly opposite the US as we continue to shut down plants with none under construction.

(The Cubs will take a 3-0 lead in the NLCS, only to lose four straight in dramatic fashion. Cubs fans all over the country will schedule appointments with their therapists.)

OldLeatherneck

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Re: 2016 Predictions
« Reply #23 on: December 30, 2015, 09:04:50 PM »

(The Cubs will take a 3-0 lead in the NLCS, only to lose four straight in dramatic fashion. Cubs fans all over the country will schedule appointments with their therapists.)

And may the fleas of a thousand camels find a happy home in the nether regions of your anatomy!!
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JimD

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Re: 2016 Predictions
« Reply #24 on: December 31, 2015, 12:49:49 AM »

PS JimD, let me kindly remind you of your own rules put forth at the top of this thread: E.g. no links and no arguing...

Pretty amusing post.  BTW I was not arguing I was agreeing.  But I did post links.
We do not err because truth is difficult to see. It is visible at a glance. We err because this is more comfortable. Alexander Solzhenitsyn

How is it conceivable that all our technological progress - our very civilization - is like the axe in the hand of the pathological criminal? Albert Einstein

iamlsd

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Re: 2016 Predictions
« Reply #25 on: December 31, 2015, 05:59:11 AM »
Ok here are my predictions for myself which I can be slightly knowledgeable about  ;)

1. My itsy off-grid shed made up of hand me down / cheap ebay purchases of batteries (~60ampHrs), 60 watts solar panels and a 300 watt wind turbine (currently located in the wind shadow of the hours  :-\ will get a serous over haul to become 200 ampHrs battery (probs AGM lead acid as lithium still to pricey) 200 watts solar and the turbine goes up on the roof where it can do something useful.

2. Install a more convenient permanent charging option for my electric car (Nissan Leaf) rather than using the portable charger and extension cords   8)

3. Add 1 to 2 more Kw of roof top solar to my current 3 Kw of grid connected panel to get me in credit on electricity bills rather than just missing out in summer and still paying 200 - 400 (Aussie dollars) in winter.

4. Add grid connected storage similar to /or use a Tesla powerwall (probably a pipe dream and out of budget for me but you never know)

5. Get more serious with my home grown food which is currently a bath tub hydroponics (supports a gold fish, some yabbies, parsley, rocket and a marsh lilly), Numerous pots of fruit trees, herbs and various veges.  Not sure how to scale up as I'm in a small unit but perhaps the hydroponics is the best bang for my buck and space.

Ok and on to the big picture stuff that I have only the skills of a "Master Lurker" to help me with  :o

1. In my neck of the woods (Adelaide - Aus)our nasty season of bush fires will continue and enter the records as the worst to date.  Unfortunately this will include additional loss of life.

2. Antarctic melt season will produce a record mass loss for the ice sheets and another ice sheet will disintegrate perhaps unexpectedly on Eastern Antarctic Ice Sheet.

3. CO2 ppm will hit a record high several time in a row. As will Methane levels

4. El Nino conditions will linger and not fully disappear until June / July bring at least one more massive storm system all the way to the North Pole as we have just had. Giving a record low Arctic sea ice max and the sea ice extent will melt to less that 2 million km/2 so effectively ice free.

5. Most countries will be making very positive noises about taking action on climate change but it will much less than what is needed.

Sigmetnow

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Re: 2016 Predictions
« Reply #26 on: December 31, 2015, 04:38:55 PM »
Ok here are my predictions for myself which I can be slightly knowledgeable about  ;)

1. My itsy off-grid shed made up of hand me down / cheap ebay purchases of batteries (~60ampHrs), 60 watts solar panels and a 300 watt wind turbine (currently located in the wind shadow of the hours  :-\ will get a serous over haul to become 200 ampHrs battery (probs AGM lead acid as lithium still to pricey) 200 watts solar and the turbine goes up on the roof where it can do something useful.

2. Install a more convenient permanent charging option for my electric car (Nissan Leaf) rather than using the portable charger and extension cords   8)

3. Add 1 to 2 more Kw of roof top solar to my current 3 Kw of grid connected panel to get me in credit on electricity bills rather than just missing out in summer and still paying 200 - 400 (Aussie dollars) in winter.

4. Add grid connected storage similar to /or use a Tesla powerwall (probably a pipe dream and out of budget for me but you never know)
...

I predict...  ;) my set-up will end up much like yours, with grid-tied solar plus a smaller solar system to charge a (Tesla PowerWall?) to charge an electric car. 

I was worried that plan might scare off my electrician -- but he wants to do the same thing at his house!
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

JimD

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Re: 2016 Predictions
« Reply #27 on: December 31, 2015, 05:25:47 PM »
iamlsd

Idea for you since you have a limited area.

My son grew potatoes on the balcony of his apartment in a barrel.  He started with some dirt and piles of leaves and just kept adding composted leaves as the plants grew.  It worked great.  When they were done growing he just turned the barrel upside down and harvested.  Google this to find instructions.

 
We do not err because truth is difficult to see. It is visible at a glance. We err because this is more comfortable. Alexander Solzhenitsyn

How is it conceivable that all our technological progress - our very civilization - is like the axe in the hand of the pathological criminal? Albert Einstein

JimD

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Re: 2016 Predictions
« Reply #28 on: January 01, 2016, 04:56:36 PM »
Richard Engle's 2016 predictions

For those who do not know who he is.  He is currently the Chief foreign corespondent for NBC News and is perhaps the most experienced war corespondent among US reporters (5 years in Iraq alone), he is fluent in Arabic, Italian, Spanish and has lived most of his adult life in the Middle East..  His life is quite a story...  https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Richard_Engel

His predictions:
1. Rise of the far right in Europe
2. More consensus against ISIS
3. More domestic terrorism
4. More U.S. involvement in Iraq and Syria
5. Chaos in Middle East keeps rumbling
6. Big changes could be coming to Iran
7. A hard year for Russia
8. China gets serious about the environment; India does not
9. Warming Latin American relations
10. Turkey takes center stage

Details of the above preditions:

http://www.nbcnews.com/storyline/2015-year-in-review/richard-engel-offers-10-predictions-2016-n481741
We do not err because truth is difficult to see. It is visible at a glance. We err because this is more comfortable. Alexander Solzhenitsyn

How is it conceivable that all our technological progress - our very civilization - is like the axe in the hand of the pathological criminal? Albert Einstein

OldLeatherneck

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Re: 2016 Predictions
« Reply #29 on: January 05, 2016, 01:31:25 AM »
2016 is starting off to be a terrible disruptive year.

1.  The Arctic Ocean started 2016 with above freezing air temperatures approaching the North Pole.
2.  While it is not surprising that the Saudis would execute 47 people in one day, it is surprising that they risked elevating tensions with Iran by executing a prominent Shiite Cleric.
3.  Iranian protesters have stormed the Saudi Embassy in Teheran.
4.  Saudi Arabia and many of it's neighbors have broken diplomatic relations with Iran.
5.  Here in America, an armed band of lunatic, right wing, racist militia members have occupied a Federal Wildlife Refuge

Here we are only 4 days into the new year and it would have been hard to envision a worse start to the new year.

Unfortunately, I don't have much hope for improvement on the climate front, the middle east conflicts front nor the political front in the US.

Fasten your seatbelts, 2016 is going to be a tumultuous year!!
"Share Your Knowledge.  It's a Way to Achieve Immortality."  ......the Dalai Lama

johnm33

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Re: 2016 Predictions
« Reply #30 on: January 05, 2016, 11:00:55 AM »
Just 3 for now
1. double figure retreat of 79N [in K]
2. meltwater dissolves old salt deposits on greenland causing persistent outflow below major glacier
3. the slowed down NAD cooled below greenland loses less heat as it moves north and arrives in the arctic in greater volume a little warmer and a little later, Barents sea ice suffers most.
edit added N[79N] for below read south of
« Last Edit: June 09, 2016, 12:42:17 AM by johnm33 »

TerryM

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Re: 2016 Predictions
« Reply #31 on: January 05, 2016, 05:38:32 PM »
For 2016 I fear the heating up of geopolitics more than the heating up of the environment.


We fight WWIIII with sticks & stones.
Terry

OldLeatherneck

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Re: 2016 Predictions
« Reply #32 on: January 05, 2016, 06:09:49 PM »
For 2016 I fear the heating up of geopolitics more than the heating up of the environment.


We fight WWIIII with sticks & stones.
Terry

Sadly, I must agree with  you.  Even with a potentially disastrous year for catastrophic climate related disasters, the complete and utter breakdown of governance throughout the middle east will cause far more death and destruction.
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citrine

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Re: 2016 Predictions
« Reply #33 on: January 07, 2016, 07:05:00 PM »
So I'm not the only one thinking that WWIII might be on the way? I've been getting the feeling for some months that here in the US propaganda (both 'news' and 'entertainment') has been cranking up.
near Raleigh, North Carolina / USDA Zone 7b

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2016 Predictions
« Reply #34 on: January 17, 2016, 12:14:59 AM »
"Neo, wake-up …
The Matrix Has You …
Follow the White Rabbit.
Knock, knock, Neo.
"

Many people think the current world population is 7billion, but per the linked website, it is actually 7.4billion:

http://www.worldometers.info/world-population/

Many people think the 50% CL world population by 2050 will be 9.5 billion, but after China changes its policies the first attached image shows a 50% CL 2050 value of 9.7 billion (+/- 0.7 for 95% CL).

Many people think the current global mean surface temperature is about 1C above pre-industrial, whereas the second attached image of the BerkeleyEarth global temperature anom. shows that by the end of 2015 we were very close to 1.2C above pre-industrial and rising rapidly.

Many people believe that if the world stays below AR5's carbon budget they are safe, but as temperatures continue to rise, model projection uncertainty grows, increasing the likelihood of unforeseen, disastrous events.

Wake-up Neo, the future is coming faster than you think.
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
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Iceismylife

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Re: 2016 Predictions
« Reply #35 on: January 20, 2016, 04:37:36 AM »
...
Deflation
Plunging commodity prices to include oil
Serious economic dislocation
Will it calve this year or next.  But the cracks are showing it is just when...

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2016 Predictions
« Reply #36 on: April 17, 2016, 05:38:59 PM »
1. Sometime in 2016 the running monthly total of NASA's GISTemp LOTIv3, at 12m average elevation, baselined to 1880-1909, will exceed 1.2oC.
2. The Pine Island Ice Shelf, PIIS, will have a major calving event, sometime in 2016.
3. A La Nina event will not officially be recognized in 2016.

The attached SkS 2C Tracker plot shows that the 12-month running average LOTI temp now exceeds 1.2C, so I have already achieved 1/3rd of my predictions, and counting.
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

Darvince

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Re: 2016 Predictions
« Reply #37 on: September 13, 2016, 12:33:28 PM »
So, how have everyone's predictions verified? ;)

crandles

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Re: 2016 Predictions
« Reply #38 on: September 13, 2016, 02:31:42 PM »

Collapse Dynamics
1.  Europe is at the top of the list currently as the most likely to see a backing away from civilizational complexity - the EU in my opinion is a dead man walking and we will see a lot of progress towards its demise this year.  But that eventuality will still be some time away.


Impressive brexit prediction.

JimD

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Re: 2016 Predictions
« Reply #39 on: September 16, 2016, 06:36:37 PM »
The year of course has some time to run still, but I looked back over all the items on my list. 

Probably one of my better years for prognostications.  No outright misses so far and a solid majority pretty much dead on the mark.  I admit that most of them are pretty easy predictions also so I can't claim too much credit.
We do not err because truth is difficult to see. It is visible at a glance. We err because this is more comfortable. Alexander Solzhenitsyn

How is it conceivable that all our technological progress - our very civilization - is like the axe in the hand of the pathological criminal? Albert Einstein

theoldinsane

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Re: 2016 Predictions
« Reply #40 on: October 03, 2016, 07:40:04 PM »
1 Arctic SIE maximum will reach a new minimum.

2 Arctic SIE in september will reach the second lowest (behind 2012).

3 At least one climate related black swan event worse than ever before in human history.  But hopefully it will be a wake up call for humantiy.

4 The yearly temperature anomaly in Sweden will be att least 2.5 C above the 1961-1990 baseline (2.23 C in 2014)

Well, let´s see how well I am right now.

1 Check

2 Check

3 Maybe a check if hurricane Matthew arrives in Miami as a CAT 4 or 3. It is possible, but of course I don´t want it. But I feel really sadness for the people in Haiti right now.

http://edition.cnn.com/2016/10/03/americas/hurricane-matthew/

4 To be determined later. About 1.5-1.6 C right now