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AbruptSLR

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Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
« Reply #700 on: June 08, 2016, 03:39:17 AM »
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has plunged down to -1.2:
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Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
« Reply #701 on: June 08, 2016, 08:46:25 AM »
BoMs update yesterday wasn't exciting, everything's pretty much in neutral, OLR as well. Their latest subsurface analysis showed a bit more elongated and slightly strengthened pool of negative anomalies than their analysis from June 2:nd. But also some tiny positive surface anomalies.

Made a couple of animations of the NCEP RTG_SST_HR anomalies from June 1-7. First the globe and second, the area between 160W-95W and 25S-20N. The area around the dateline shows increases together with the area around Berings Strait. Also along the entire US west coast and the area just north of the equator. We only have three weeks left of June, while watching a shallow cold pool and increasing surface anomalies.

Click to animate. There are 2s delays on the first and last images in the animation, the rest is 1s.
Edit; deleted the second animation instead of lowering the resolution, it didn't work after upload.
« Last Edit: June 08, 2016, 09:24:50 AM by Sleepy »

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
« Reply #702 on: June 09, 2016, 03:25:07 AM »
Per the following data, and attached plot, both issued today by the BoM; the 30-day moving average SOI has moved down to -1.8:

20160509,20160607,-1.8
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

Michael Hauber

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Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
« Reply #703 on: June 09, 2016, 05:21:08 AM »
Shifting El Niño inhibits summer Arctic warming and Arctic sea-ice melting over the Canada Basin.
http://www.nature.com/ncomms/2016/160602/ncomms11721/full/ncomms11721.html


Interesting.

A Central Pacific el nino leads to increased sea ice during summer.  But an east Pacific el nino has no effect.  As the effect is deduced by correlation between the CP index and values such as temperature, SST and ice concentration in the Arctic, it seems that the reverse should hold and that a Central Pacific La Nina would lead to reduced ice.

The central pacific index they use is a box located much further west, and includes a much wider north to south slice than the traditional nino 3.4 index, and would be closer to the nino 4 index.  Current cooling is mainly in the east and only quite close to the equator, and models do not suggest this will change in a hurry.  This index would almost certainly be significantly positive and could easily remain positive throughout the current NH summer.
Climate change:  Prepare for the worst, hope for the best, expect the middle.

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Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
« Reply #704 on: June 09, 2016, 09:25:31 AM »
Michael, I thought so too. It's at least something to keep an eye on. The 925mb temps have been noted to differ in the past and this might be the cause. There were a small discussion in the IJIS thread a couple of weeks back, so I posted it here since speculations about ENSO correlations to the arctic sea ice demise was considered OT there.

Adding fig 5 & 17 from the study as well.

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Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
« Reply #705 on: June 09, 2016, 09:44:59 AM »
Another oscillation connected to both ENSO and the arctic, is the QBO. Adding this study from last year on how QBO would affect the subtropical jet and the NAO in combination with a La Nina.
Tropospheric QBO–ENSO Interactions and Differences between the Atlantic and Pacific.
http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0164.1
Quote
This study investigates the interaction of the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) and the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in the troposphere separately for the North Pacific and North Atlantic region. Three 145-yr model simulations with NCAR’s Community Earth System Model Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model (CESM-WACCM) are analyzed where only natural (no anthropogenic) forcings are considered. These long simulations allow the authors to obtain statistically reliable results from an exceptional large number of cases for each combination of the QBO (westerly and easterly) and ENSO phases (El Niño and La Niña). Two different analysis methods were applied to investigate where nonlinearity might play a role in QBO–ENSO interactions. The analyses reveal that the stratospheric equatorial QBO anomalies extend down to the troposphere over the North Pacific during Northern Hemisphere winter only during La Niña and not during El Niño events. The Aleutian low is deepened during QBO westerly (QBOW) as compared to QBO easterly (QBOE) conditions, and the North Pacific subtropical jet is shifted northward during La Niña. In the North Atlantic, the interaction of QBOW with La Niña conditions (QBOE with El Niño) results in a positive (negative) North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) pattern. For both regions, nonlinear interactions between the QBO and ENSO might play a role. The results provide the potential to enhance the skill of tropospheric seasonal predictions in the North Atlantic and North Pacific region.
My bold.
At present we are having a La Nada regarding both ENSO and QBO. Looking at the graph at fu-berlin the transition this year resembles no previous year on record. I don't like that.
http://www.geo.fu-berlin.de/en/met/ag/strat/produkte/qbo/

Lord M Vader

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Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
« Reply #706 on: June 09, 2016, 06:49:53 PM »
During the last 10 days, there have been considerable differences in the Pacific subsurface waters which the two attached images from TAO/TRITON shows:





As can be seen, the warm pocket in Western Pacific has increased and the cold pocket in the Eastern Pacific has shrunk. Some upwelling of cold water is still present around 125-130W.

Best, LMV

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Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
« Reply #707 on: June 09, 2016, 07:01:16 PM »
Western Pacific hydroclimate linked to global climate variability over the past two millennia
http://www.nature.com/ncomms/2016/160608/ncomms11719/full/ncomms11719.html
Quote
Interdecadal modes of tropical Pacific ocean-atmosphere circulation have a strong influence on global temperature, yet the extent to which these phenomena influence global climate on multicentury timescales is still poorly known. Here we present a 2,000-year, multiproxy reconstruction of western Pacific hydroclimate from two speleothem records for southeastern Indonesia. The composite record shows pronounced shifts in monsoon rainfall that are antiphased with precipitation records for East Asia and the central-eastern equatorial Pacific. These meridional and zonal patterns are best explained by a poleward expansion of the Australasian Intertropical Convergence Zone and weakening of the Pacific Walker circulation (PWC) between ~1000 and 1500 CE Conversely, an equatorward contraction of the Intertropical Convergence Zone and strengthened PWC occurred between ~1500 and 1900 CE. Our findings, together with climate model simulations, highlight the likelihood that century-scale variations in tropical Pacific climate modes can significantly modulate radiatively forced shifts in global temperature.
My bold.

Fig5 attached.

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
« Reply #708 on: June 09, 2016, 07:42:29 PM »
Western Pacific hydroclimate linked to global climate variability over the past two millennia
http://www.nature.com/ncomms/2016/160608/ncomms11719/full/ncomms11719.html
Quote
Interdecadal modes of tropical Pacific ocean-atmosphere circulation have a strong influence on global temperature, yet the extent to which these phenomena influence global climate on multicentury timescales is still poorly known. Here we present a 2,000-year, multiproxy reconstruction of western Pacific hydroclimate from two speleothem records for southeastern Indonesia. The composite record shows pronounced shifts in monsoon rainfall that are antiphased with precipitation records for East Asia and the central-eastern equatorial Pacific. These meridional and zonal patterns are best explained by a poleward expansion of the Australasian Intertropical Convergence Zone and weakening of the Pacific Walker circulation (PWC) between ~1000 and 1500 CE Conversely, an equatorward contraction of the Intertropical Convergence Zone and strengthened PWC occurred between ~1500 and 1900 CE. Our findings, together with climate model simulations, highlight the likelihood that century-scale variations in tropical Pacific climate modes can significantly modulate radiatively forced shifts in global temperature.
My bold.

Sleepy,

Thanks for the recent series of posts on the influence of the Tropical Pacific on both Arctic Amplification and GMST departures.  It is clear to me that the Tropical Pacific can act as a chaotic strange attractor to amplify otherwise relatively weak radiative forcing inputs, and your last post of Fig. 5 indicates that we are now entering a phase of the century-scale variations in which Tropical Pacific modes naturally promote more strong El Ninos, which must then be added to the influences of anthropogenic forcing.
« Last Edit: June 09, 2016, 10:04:43 PM by AbruptSLR »
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Sigmetnow

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Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
« Reply #709 on: June 09, 2016, 09:47:19 PM »
El Niño is dead, leaving behind legacy of a heated planet, devastated corals and monster storms
Quote
“We’re sticking a fork in this El Niño and calling it done,” writes NOAA climate analyst Emily Becker on its El Niño blog.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/capital-weather-gang/wp/2016/06/09/el-nino-is-dead-leaving-behind-legacy-of-a-heated-planet-devastated-corals-and-monster-storms/
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
« Reply #710 on: June 10, 2016, 03:24:58 AM »
Per the following data, and associate plot, both issued today by the BoM; the 30-day moving average SOI has soared up to -0.1:

20160510,20160608,-0.1
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

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Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
« Reply #711 on: June 10, 2016, 06:26:19 AM »
As a follow up to my comments around the subsurface cold pool in #691 & #701 I made an animation of the latest updates by BoM. The dates are May16, June02, June06 & June09.
2s delays on first and last frames, 1s on the middle ones.

Sleepy

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Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
« Reply #712 on: June 10, 2016, 08:44:53 AM »
Western Pacific hydroclimate linked to global climate variability over the past two millennia
http://www.nature.com/ncomms/2016/160608/ncomms11719/full/ncomms11719.html
Quote
Interdecadal modes of tropical Pacific ocean-atmosphere circulation have a strong influence on global temperature, yet the extent to which these phenomena influence global climate on multicentury timescales is still poorly known. Here we present a 2,000-year, multiproxy reconstruction of western Pacific hydroclimate from two speleothem records for southeastern Indonesia. The composite record shows pronounced shifts in monsoon rainfall that are antiphased with precipitation records for East Asia and the central-eastern equatorial Pacific. These meridional and zonal patterns are best explained by a poleward expansion of the Australasian Intertropical Convergence Zone and weakening of the Pacific Walker circulation (PWC) between ~1000 and 1500 CE Conversely, an equatorward contraction of the Intertropical Convergence Zone and strengthened PWC occurred between ~1500 and 1900 CE. Our findings, together with climate model simulations, highlight the likelihood that century-scale variations in tropical Pacific climate modes can significantly modulate radiatively forced shifts in global temperature.
My bold.

Sleepy,

Thanks for the recent series of posts on the influence of the Tropical Pacific on both Arctic Amplification and GMST departures.  It is clear to me that the Tropical Pacific can act as a chaotic strange attractor to amplify otherwise relatively weak radiative forcing inputs, and your last post of Fig. 5 indicates that we are now entering a phase of the century-scale variations in which Tropical Pacific modes naturally promote more strong El Ninos, which must then be added to the influences of anthropogenic forcing.

Thanks ASLR and yes, unfortunately. First we have ENSO, the largest signal in the interannual variation of the atmosphere-ocean system, then add the positive decadal variation we seem to be entering right now and then add this, a century-scale variation. :(

Eyeballing other atmospheric oscillations and the arctic sea ice, I don't really see many resemblances in indices to years like 2007 & 2012 so the badly shaped ice might survive this year as well. There's still much to do for those who work with this though, using the QBO as an example, it is still not incorporated in most models as far as I know. Also add the issues the models still have with forecasts over the arctic. So maybe 2017 for the anticipated new record drop.

Regarding the other study posted in #699, following Wipneus updates to his home brew thread is a must right now, while keeping an eye on temperatures around the nino4 region.

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
« Reply #713 on: June 11, 2016, 03:34:19 AM »
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM; the 30-day moving average SOI has moved up to +0.8:
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

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Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
« Reply #714 on: June 11, 2016, 06:19:35 AM »
Same animation as in #701 above but now June1-10. Hopefully this will work since it's just shy of 2MB. One of many "things" to follow, is the Nino3 area.

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
« Reply #715 on: June 11, 2016, 08:16:11 PM »
In the linked article Scribbler notes that India's monsoon is delayed for the third year in a row (see the first attached image), and that climate change is the likely cause.  However, I note that it is human subjectivity, and not science, that makes us evaluate the impacts of climate change separately from ENSO impacts, and I note that while the media (& Scribbler) believe that La Nina is beginning to bloom, the second image of the TAO Eq Pac Subsurface Temp & Temp Anom profiles issued June 11 2016, indicate that the recent upwelling of cool deep water in the Nino 3, & eastern Nino 3.4, regions is now subsiding and the cool deep pool of water is dissipating (see the third attached image); it appear more likely that we are headed towards La Nada (neutral) conditions rather than La Nina conditions (as Sleepy has already pointed out):

https://robertscribbler.com/2016/06/10/indias-monsoon-is-delayed-for-the-third-year-in-a-row-climate-change-is-likely-cause/

Extract: "The reduction in India’s monsoon rains is a big deal. It generates systemic drought, creates a prevalence for heatwaves, and locally amplifies the impacts of human-caused climate change. For three years now, the Indian monsoon has been delayed. India is experiencing its worst heatwaves ever recorded and water shortages across the country are growing dire. The monsoonal rains are coming, again late. And people across India — residents as well as weather and climate experts — are beginning to wonder if the endemic drought and heat stress will ever end.

Historically, there was only one climate condition known to bring about a delay in India’s Monsoon — El Nino. And last year, a strong El Nino is thought to have contributed both to the Monsoon’s late arrival and to a very severe drought that is now gripping the state. What the 2015 El Nino cannot also account for is the 2014 delay and weakening of monsoonal rains. And during 2016, as India’s monsoon has again been held back by 1-2 weeks, and El Nino is now but a memory, it’s beginning to become quite clear that there’s something else involved in the weakening of India’s annual rains.

Delays in the Indian Monsoon result in a loss of precipitation due to the fact that the duration of the event is greatly reduced. Rainfall has to therefore be more intense over a shorter period of time in order to make up for losses. Increasing drought prevalence results in further moisture losses due to a kind of atmospheric heat and dryness barrier that tends to sap storms of precipitation even as they start to form. The net result for India is a prediction of severe moisture loss due to human-caused climate change.

This year’s India monsoonal delay — as with the delay during 2014 — falls into that pattern. And the massive drought that India is now experiencing as a result appears to be emerging from a set of atmospheric conditions that are consistent with human-caused climate change. India’s risk for continued drought and increasingly extreme heatwaves over the coming years is therefore on the rise. And it is yet to be seen if this year’s monsoon will deliver the hoped-for and desperately-needed relief. Already, the rain-bearing storm system is lagging. And that’s not a good sign."
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
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AbruptSLR

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Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
« Reply #716 on: June 12, 2016, 03:26:25 AM »
Per the following data, and associated plot, both issued today by the BoM; the 30-day moving average SOI has moved up to +1.8:

20160512,20160610,1.8
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

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Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
« Reply #717 on: June 12, 2016, 09:32:18 AM »
Connecting to what ASLR wrote above regarding human subjectivity, I would like to use an analogy from chess. A novice can beat an expert, but will never beat a grand master. Apart from spectators like myself, there are a lot of novices, then a large number of experts, but also a few grand masters in climate science. One of the latter is Syukuro Manabe who started using computers and models in the 60's. In the 80's he said that warming will be greatest at the north pole, during winter. This is now a fact. In the 90's he concluded that part of the warming trend in the pacific may be attributed to sustained thermal forcing. This is now a fact. The models he used back then indicated that the SST gradient along the equator slackened together with the easterlies, and this would result in an El Nino-like pattern of changes. This is still not a fact(?).

This event has showed a weak annual cycle (regarding coupling) and a strong ENSO regime. The PDO has been positive for 29 consecutive months now (May +2.35). We are consistently breaking greenhouse gas records and one can go on forever about feedbacks.
Still, a lot of people and media have for a very long time now been speculating about how strong the following La Nina will be. Very little about; what if we do not see a La Nina at all or just a quick dip into La Nina territory? What if we are entering a new era with this event? We can't bargain with the ocean.

But sure, this might still develop into a La Nina and the experts are still expecting a 50-75% possibility for that.

Man made climate change can't be separated from ENSO, neither can the Arctic sea ice.

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Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
« Reply #718 on: June 12, 2016, 12:12:03 PM »
I'm also  little 'ticked off' by the number of folk who expect the Nina to 'balance out' the Nino impacts? I ,for the life of me, cannot see how they arrive at this conclusion?
We may well slip into Nina but the past Nino took a long time to arrive and sat a long while ast near Nino temps. The forecast Nina does appear to slip below Nina temps but do they stay there long enough for Nina to be called?

Anyhoo's I do not think Nina will dent global temps to the same extent as we saw temps rise whilst under Nino conditions.... those temp gains were not Nino alone but general warmth around the planet ( esp. the Oceans).
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Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
« Reply #719 on: June 12, 2016, 05:32:27 PM »
From an AGW point of view it really doesn't matter if we have La Nina or El Nino now. With ~90% of the energy going into the ocean the heat will come back to haunt us soon anyway. The ocean will always win.

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Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
« Reply #720 on: June 12, 2016, 06:02:53 PM »
I'm still not convinced we will see Nina? I think the wider ocean warmth will over ride it and looking at the sst's plot either side of the cold plume???
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AbruptSLR

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Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
« Reply #721 on: June 12, 2016, 11:22:34 PM »
I'm still not convinced we will see Nina? I think the wider ocean warmth will over ride it and looking at the sst's plot either side of the cold plume???

Gray-Wolf,

I concur that based on current trends the chances of a La Nina event this year appear to be diminishing.  In this regards:
(a) The first image shows the TAO Eq Pac Subsurface Temp & Temp Anom profiles issued June 12 2016; indicating that both the upwelling of cool deep water to the surface in the Nino 3 & 3.4 regions is continuing to diminish rapidly; while the cool pool of deep water is also diminishing relatively rapidly.
(b) The second image shows both the CDAS SSTA (upper panel) and 7-day change in SSTA (lower panel) for June 12 2016; indicating (as you point-out) that the warm surface waters on either side of the equator appear to be moving towards the equator in both the Nino 3 & 3.4 regions (probably associate with the reduction in upwelling cited in item (a).
(c) The third attached image shows the daily CDAS Nino 3.4 values through June 12 2016, indicating that this value (while bearing uncertainty in mind) has moved up to +0.31C.

Best,
ASLR
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AbruptSLR

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Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
« Reply #722 on: June 12, 2016, 11:48:16 PM »
From an AGW point of view it really doesn't matter if we have La Nina or El Nino now. With ~90% of the energy going into the ocean the heat will come back to haunt us soon anyway. The ocean will always win.

While I appreciate the point that you are making on a macro-scale; on a decadal-scale I am concerned that the chaotic ratcheting mechanism illustrated in the first attached image could shift (upwards) the quasi-static equilibrium condition of say the Arctic Sea Ice Extent (and consequently the associated Arctic Amplification) if a La Nina were to have begun at the beginning of this month (and advected more warm atmospheric energy into the Arctic Basin).  Furthermore, if the butterfly events in the first image are taken to be a positive PDO phase instead of an ENSO event; this it is possible that the illustrated chaotic ratcheting mechanism could serve to trigger the collapse of the WAIS, which if Hansen et al 2016 are correct (see the second attached image) this could greatly amplify the Earth Energy Imbalance for many decades to come (which effectively increases the ECS for the next several decades with regard to more ice sheet melting and more extreme weather events).
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Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
« Reply #723 on: June 13, 2016, 03:26:43 AM »
Per the following data, and accompanying plot, both issued today by the BoM; the 30-day moving average SOI has remained constant at +1.8:

20160513,20160611,1.8
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
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Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
« Reply #724 on: June 13, 2016, 07:18:45 AM »
I'm still not convinced we will see Nina? I think the wider ocean warmth will over ride it and looking at the sst's plot either side of the cold plume???
Neither am I, Gray-Wolf. As I wrote in reply #2 in this thread from Dec 30 2015: "Looking at the upper ocean conditions (first attachment) and specifically at the basin-wide heat anomalies it would be much more likely (in my mind) that this event will take some more time to taper off."
And the decline of El Nino has been slow and I've stuck to that idea since then, speculating about La Nada and maybe a quick dip into La Nina territory and by the look of things now, it might just be so (late forming La Ninas also tend to be weak). Now that's not scientific by any means, since I was anticipating a slow decline, continuing positive PDO values and continued weak coupling from the atmosphere. But I'm just a retired IT-Manager, so I don't have to bother about my reputation or employment. ;)

Regarding your previous question; if we stick to the ONI, then events are defined as 5 consecutive overlapping 3-month periods at or below the -0.5°C anomaly for La Nina.

Apart from ASLRs points above you can also look at the animations I've made earlier, latest in #711 and #714. Regarding the arctic I've been playing with a scenario wich will give less melt now (as it has been since late May when I proposed that in the IJIS thread) and more next year.
On the macro-scale, apart from risking to be in a continuing decal positive regime in the pacific, we might now also add a natural positive century scale variation (see previous posts in this thread). Hansen's latest, might turn out to be conservative.

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Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
« Reply #725 on: June 13, 2016, 09:11:16 AM »
Latest PDO value from JISAO came in at +2,35 making it the highest value on record for the month May. on a second place we find 1940 which had a May value at +2,32 and with 1941 on a third placewith +2,25. The only other year that had a May value above 2,00 is May 1996 and 1993 which had +2,18 and +2,13 respetively.

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Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
« Reply #726 on: June 13, 2016, 11:02:43 AM »
LMW, also as noted in #717 we are now up to 29 consecutive months of positive PDO values.

ASLR, I recognized the graphics from your posts in the Hansen et al thread so I'm with you, I hope...

We humans always needs to fall back on statistics. Weather is chaos and has no memory, it starts from now. Here's a study from March, they are using a markov switching autoregressive model to describe the SOI.
https://www.researchgate.net/publication/287816294_A_Markov_regime-switching_framework_to_forecast_El_Nio_Southern_Oscillation_patterns
Only 39 reads but the forecast given there for the SOI is rather interesting.
Attaching Fig10: Forecast obtained with the proposed model for the SOI index (2014-2018).
« Last Edit: June 13, 2016, 11:08:25 AM by Sleepy »

Lord M Vader

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Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
« Reply #727 on: June 13, 2016, 03:59:13 PM »
Sleepy, very interesting figure you have provided us! :) A new El Niño in 2017-2018 would surely have a good shot to beat out 2016 record high temperatures and put us even closer to the 1,5oC-goal.

The most important thing we should think about right now is that the last time the PDO was positive e.g 1977-1998 the world warmed about 0,4-0,5oC.Given that the humanity have blown up an even higher amount of carbon dioxide into the atmosphere since 1998 I don't think it's completely unreasonable to believ that we might see a temperature increase of 0,5-1oC until about 2035. 2035 seems to be a year quite reasonabe to believe the PDO will switch back to the negative phase. In any case, this would blow us away from the dear 2oC-goal

The prospect of La Niña should however see a decent boost as (ccording to U Albany) an Easterly Wind Burst seems to emerge over the Niño 3.4-area in a couple of days as the MJO moves into the Indian Ocean and strengthens there.


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Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
« Reply #728 on: June 13, 2016, 04:07:02 PM »
I believe the PDO is 'milding out' since the early 80's? We still haqve folk telling us we are in PDO-ve and that this positive is just a phase within a phase even if , by Christmas, it will be the longest contiguous phase sign since 98' ( and positive has more 2. something values since 98)'.

If PDO positive generally sees more Nino ,than Nina, activity what would its 'milding out signal?

I'm not saying Nina is dead but if there is a link between phase state and predominance in Nino/Nina occurrences then we should be looking more closely at these 'changes'?

 

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AbruptSLR

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Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
« Reply #729 on: June 13, 2016, 07:20:52 PM »
Per the following NOAA weekly Nino data thru the week centered on Jun 8 2016, the Nino 3.4 has increased to +0.1C



                     Nino1+2      Nino3         Nino34        Nino4
 Week           SST SSTA    SST SSTA   SST SSTA    SST SSTA
 18MAY2016     24.3 0.2     26.9-0.1     28.1 0.2     29.4 0.6
 25MAY2016     24.0 0.2     26.6-0.3     27.7-0.1     29.4 0.6
 01JUN2016     23.4 0.0     26.4-0.3     27.6-0.2     29.3 0.5
 08JUN2016     23.7 0.6     26.6 0.0     27.8 0.1     29.5 0.6

The first two attached image were issued today by the BoM for the week ending June 12 2016, for the Nino 3.4 and the IOD indices, respectively, confirming that the current Nino 3.4 is indeed positive, but as the IOD is increasingly negative this implies that the SOI will likely become more positive in coming weeks.

The last two attached images were issued by NOAA today showing the Eq Pac Evolution for the SSTA and the Upper Ocean Heat Anom, respectively.  Both figures confirm that we have passed the bottom of the EKW trough and so we may stay in ENSO neutral conditions for at least some weeks to come.
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
« Reply #730 on: June 13, 2016, 07:23:44 PM »
The four attached images were all issued today by the BoM for weekly Nino index values through the week ending June 12 2016, for the Nino 1, 2, 3 & 4 indices, respectively.  The all indicate that ENSO neutral conditions may be sustained for at least some weeks to come.
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
« Reply #731 on: June 14, 2016, 03:25:54 AM »
Per the following data, and associated plot, both issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has drifted down to +1.2:

20160514,20160612,1.2
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
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Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
« Reply #732 on: June 14, 2016, 07:45:37 AM »
Continuing the pattern seeking.
https://www.esr.org/enso_index.html
ENSO cycle as indicated by 1st EOF of surface current and SST anomalies.
Quote
We use the near real-time surface current (SC) output from the diagnostic model to monitor the evolution of the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) signal in the tropical Pacific Ocean. The SC anomaly variations, with the seasonal climatology removed, have a very strong ENSO signal as seen in their principal empirical orthogonal function (EOF) and its comparison with the EOF of the sea surface temperature anomaly (SST). This figure portrays the first EOF mode of SC and SST anomalies for the past decade extending through the latest 10-day period. The amplitude time series (top panel) are computed by fitting the data sets to 10-year base period eigen vectors (1993-2002) The amplitudes are then normalized by their respective standard deviations. The bottom panel shows the corresponding EOF maps, scaled accordingly. The El Niño signal can be seen as periods of positive excursions (> 1 Std. Dev.) of the amplitude time series.
1st pic the EOF plot and the 2nd only the last three years.

The PDO.
https://www.esr.org/pdo_index.html
Quote
A study of the long period baroclinic variability in the Northeast Pacific Ocean (Cummings and Lagerloef, 2004) concluded that this variability occurs as a response to stochastic atmospheric forcing. They report that a significant percentage (~40%) of this variability is evident in the first EOF mode (EOF1) of a Markov model driven by local Ekman pumping as well as the EOF1 mode of the Topex/Poseiden/Jason Altimeter representing the SSH. This indicates that  the EOF1 of the altimeter data is a useful indicator of the decadal variability in the northeast Pacific.   Because SSH variability represents the vertically integrated buoyancy changes of the upper ocean and pycnocline, it provides more slowly varying and robust signal than SST, which responds more rapidly to atmospheric forcing.  This is consistent with previous studies of dynamic height anomalies over the Gulf of Alaska (Lagerloef, 1995), spectra of sea surface temperature and salinity (Hall and Manabe, 1997), and a long time series of pycnocline depth anomalies at Station P (Cummings and Lagerloef, 2002).
As previous pictures above, 3rd pic shows the longer time frame and the 4th the last three years.
Quote
As a method of monitoring this variability, we present the EOF1 amplitude and spatial pattern of the altimeter SSH anomaly (from the long-term mean seasonal cycle).   Other North Pacific variability indices are shown for comparison:  (1) The PDO SST index (Mantua, 1997, is portrayed as blue and red bars, and (2) the historic (1968-1990) Alaska Gyre dynamic height anomaly EOF1 (Lagerloef, 1995), scaled with a factor of 3.5, is the black line. The normalized altimeter SSH anomaly EOF1 amplitude is included as the green line. The most recent SSH anomalies from the 1993:2007 climatology are also shown.
Quote
Note: The gridded SSH data used in this analysis has recently changed. Previously we used a gridded SSH product derived exclusively from the Topex/Poseiden/Jason altimeters. Beginning in 2009, the data presented here are based on the AVISO data product, which analyses multiple altimeters and offers higher spatial resolution than the previous analysis.  Consequently, the newly derived EOF1 spatial pattern shows more structure than the previous analysis.  The 15-year correlation coefficient between the respective SSH EOF1 time series is 0.97.
There are no signs of a PDO decline and the equatorial currents are still anomalously negative.

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Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
« Reply #733 on: June 14, 2016, 07:53:56 AM »
CDAS by Levi Cowan.

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
« Reply #734 on: June 15, 2016, 03:22:14 AM »
Per the attached plot issue today by the BoM; the 30-day moving average SOI has moved down to +0.5:
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

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Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
« Reply #735 on: June 15, 2016, 03:45:48 AM »
What a difference 2 weeks makes.

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Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
« Reply #736 on: June 15, 2016, 07:17:02 AM »
As a follow up to the animation in #711 here's a comparison between the subsurface analysis from Bom between June 9 and June 13.

Lord M Vader

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Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
« Reply #737 on: June 15, 2016, 08:29:44 PM »
Latest Ensemble ECMWF calls for cool ENSO neutral conditions or weak La Niña conditions by fall.

The majority of the members favor La Niña by July with a bump up in August.

http://www.ecmwf.int/en/forecasts/charts/seasonal/nino-plumes-public-charts-long-range-forecast?time=2016060100,0,2016060100&nino_area=3&forecast_type_and_skill_measure=plumes

« Last Edit: June 15, 2016, 08:37:56 PM by Lord M Vader »

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
« Reply #738 on: June 16, 2016, 03:26:25 AM »
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM; the 30-day moving average SOI has drifted up to +0.6:
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

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Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
« Reply #739 on: June 16, 2016, 06:41:30 AM »
As noted previously the ECMWF's nino34 forecasts has predicted colder than reality, starting with their March forecast. While this is during the spring barrier it's still a persistent feature. I also noted that ECMWF hasn't updated their forecast from May with that black dotted line yet.

Superimposing the June forecast's dotted line over May (works also with the March forecast over May) gives the attached, and odd, result.

Also attached is CDAS Nino4 by Levi Cowan, now at +0.727

Lord M Vader

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Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
« Reply #740 on: June 16, 2016, 05:53:32 PM »
Seems like the MJO will move quite quickly over the Indian Ocean and into the Maritime continent during the next couple of days (NCPB). The ECMM forecast has the same solution, but also depicts a scenario in which the MJO, although in a weak state, might reach phase 6 by early July.

This means that there will only be a short time with stronger trades. The ECMM scenario would in addition mean a weak WWB by early July.

U_Albany forecast:

ECMM forecast for June 16-June 30 (courtesy NOAA):

NCPB forecast from NOAA:

//LMV

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Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
« Reply #741 on: June 16, 2016, 07:55:00 PM »
Latest plume of model forecasts for the Niño 3.4 index, from the IRI website:






http://iri.columbia.edu/our-expertise/climate/forecasts/enso/current/?enso_tab=enso-quicklook

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
« Reply #742 on: June 17, 2016, 03:24:40 AM »
Per the attached plot issued by the BoM today; the 30-day moving average SOI has drifted up to +0.7:
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

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Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
« Reply #743 on: June 17, 2016, 05:52:48 AM »
The same animation as in #711, but now with June 13 & 16 added. Click on it.
In the last frame the cold pool is surfacing at 140W, also clearly visible on the second picture from yesterday.

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Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
« Reply #744 on: June 18, 2016, 03:30:14 AM »
Per the following data, and associated plot, both issued today by the BoM; the 30-day moving average SOI has moved up to +1.7:

20160518,20160616,1.7
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
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Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
« Reply #745 on: June 19, 2016, 03:24:10 AM »
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM; the 30-day moving average SOI has soared up to +3.4:
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

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Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
« Reply #746 on: June 19, 2016, 04:39:15 PM »
While at the moment the atmosphere is tending toward promoting future weak La Nina-like conditions, the attached plot showing the TAO Eq Pac Subsurface Temp & Temp Anom issued June 19 2016, indicates that at the moment the ocean is tending to promoting neutral conditions.
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

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Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
« Reply #747 on: June 20, 2016, 03:23:54 AM »
Per both the following data, and the associated attached plot, issued today by the BoM; the 30-day moving average SOI has drifted up to +3.5:

20160520,20160618,3.5
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
« Reply #748 on: June 20, 2016, 04:35:10 PM »
Per the following Nino indices data issued by NOAA through the week centered on June 15 2015, the weekly Nino 3, 3.4 and 4 indices are all more positive.


                     Nino1+2      Nino3         Nino34        Nino4
 Week           SST SSTA    SST SSTA   SST SSTA    SST SSTA
 25MAY2016     24.0 0.2     26.6-0.3     27.7-0.1     29.4 0.6
 01JUN2016     23.4 0.0     26.4-0.3     27.6-0.2     29.3 0.5
 08JUN2016     23.7 0.6     26.6 0.0     27.8 0.1     29.5 0.6
 15JUN2016     23.3 0.4     26.6 0.2     27.8 0.2     29.5 0.7
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AbruptSLR

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Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
« Reply #749 on: June 20, 2016, 04:52:44 PM »
The first and second images show NOAA's Eq Pac evolutions for SSTA and Upper Ocean Heat Anom, respectively, issued June 20 2016; which together with the third attached image issued today by NOAA of the Eq Pac Upper Ocean Heat Anom; all indicate that we have moved past the trough of the upwelling EKW phase and into a more neutral condition.

The fourth image issued today by the BoM shows the Nino 3.4 index for the week ending June 19 2016, indicating that this index is more positive (but still neutral) as compared to last week.
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson