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AbruptSLR

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Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
« Reply #750 on: June 20, 2016, 04:58:16 PM »
The four attached plots were all issued today by the BoM showing data through the week ending June 19 2016 for the Nino 1, 2, 3 & 4 indices, respectively (which are generally slightly up):
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

Tor Bejnar

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Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
« Reply #751 on: June 20, 2016, 05:21:03 PM »
Showing much the same thing (I think!):
Arctic ice is healthy for children and other living things.

Lord M Vader

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Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
« Reply #752 on: June 20, 2016, 05:43:31 PM »
The most recent forecast from U_Albany depicts a couple of days ahead with strong easterlies across most of the Pacific basin. This should make the SSTAs plunging down quickly and maybe pave the way for a La Nina.




AbruptSLR

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Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
« Reply #753 on: June 21, 2016, 03:26:56 AM »
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM; the 30-day moving average SOI has drifted up to +3.7:
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

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Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
« Reply #754 on: June 21, 2016, 05:21:31 AM »
Showing much the same thing (I think!):
I would rather note the blue member runs.
Models aside and right now, we might be looking at a borderline La Nina later on this year, -0.5°C.
« Last Edit: June 21, 2016, 06:32:00 AM by Sleepy »

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Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
« Reply #755 on: June 21, 2016, 06:25:37 AM »
BoM will be updating today but I won't be able to follow that since I'll be attending my brothers funeral. Here's the same animation as in #743 and earlier, now with June 20 added. Those colder subsurface anomalies are breaking up.
Click to animate.

Tor Bejnar

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Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
« Reply #756 on: June 21, 2016, 02:37:22 PM »
Our condolences, Sleepy.
Arctic ice is healthy for children and other living things.

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
« Reply #757 on: June 21, 2016, 04:47:43 PM »
Our condolences, Sleepy.

Our thoughts are with you, Sleepy.
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

Lord M Vader

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Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
« Reply #758 on: June 21, 2016, 05:59:11 PM »
Our thoughts and condoleances are with you Sleepy!  :(

werther

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Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
« Reply #759 on: June 21, 2016, 07:59:14 PM »
Letting go is the hardest part of life, Sleepy. I wish it was a beautiful ceremony.

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Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
« Reply #760 on: June 22, 2016, 07:11:17 AM »
@all
I'm surprised and amazed by the comments and the PMs I've got. I'm deliberately not too social in my own comments and I did not expect the response.
Letting go never becomes a habit, just break down and get moving again. Life is more important than death, but it's nothing without it.

Thank you very, very much.

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Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
« Reply #761 on: June 22, 2016, 09:16:39 AM »
A quote from BoM yesterday.
Quote
The tropical Pacific Ocean remains in a neutral El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) state—neither El Niño nor La Niña—with all ocean and atmospheric indicators now near normal.

Recent observations and climate model forecasts continue to suggest La Niña may develop in the coming months, hence the Bureau’s ENSO Outlook remains at La Niña WATCH level. A La Niña WATCH means there is a 50% likelihood of La Niña developing during the second half of 2016.  If La Niña does develop, climate models suggest it is unlikely to reach levels seen in the most recent event of 2010–12, which was one of the strongest La Niña events on record.
Latest POAMA Nino34 from June 19 attached along with those from May 8 & May 22. POAMA Nino3 & Nino4 never reaches La Nina (BoM threshold at -0.8°C).

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
« Reply #762 on: June 22, 2016, 04:36:13 PM »
Per the attached plot issued yesterday by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has dropped down to +3.0:
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
« Reply #763 on: June 23, 2016, 04:01:14 AM »
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM; the 30-day moving average SOI has dropped down to +2.3:
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
« Reply #764 on: June 24, 2016, 05:02:29 AM »
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM; the 30-day moving average SOI has drifted up to +2.4 (and thus is still neutral):
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

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Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
« Reply #765 on: June 24, 2016, 08:22:38 AM »
Yet another subsurface animation, as the previous ones, now with June 23 added.

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
« Reply #766 on: June 25, 2016, 03:24:47 AM »
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM; the 30-day moving average SOI has
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
« Reply #767 on: June 26, 2016, 03:32:10 AM »
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM; the 30-day moving average SOI has moved up to +3.5:
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
« Reply #768 on: June 26, 2016, 08:37:34 PM »
The first image shows NOAA's Eq Pac Upper Ocean Heat Anom issued June 26 2016.  The second images shows TAO's Eq Pac Subsurface Temp & Temp Anom also issued June 26 2106.  The third image shows U at Albany's 5S-5N 850-hPa Wind Anom forecast from June 26 to July 3 2016.  Collectively, this images support the idea that ENSO neutral conditions will continue for some time to come.
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
« Reply #769 on: June 27, 2016, 03:23:45 AM »
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM; the 30-day moving average SOI has drifted up to +3.6:
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
« Reply #770 on: June 27, 2016, 05:13:21 PM »
The following NOAA data on weekly Nino indices information through the week centered on June 22 2016, indicates neutral conditions with the Nino 3.4 index at -0.4C:


                     Nino1+2      Nino3         Nino34        Nino4
 Week           SST SSTA    SST SSTA   SST SSTA    SST SSTA
 25MAY2016     24.0 0.2     26.6-0.3     27.7-0.1     29.4 0.6
 01JUN2016     23.4 0.0     26.4-0.3     27.6-0.2     29.3 0.5
 08JUN2016     23.7 0.6     26.6 0.0     27.8 0.1     29.5 0.6
 15JUN2016     23.3 0.4     26.6 0.2     27.8 0.2     29.5 0.7
 22JUN2016     22.4-0.1     25.9-0.3     27.2-0.4     29.3 0.5

The first two images were issued today by the BoM with weekly data through the week ending June 26 2016, with the first image for the Nino 3.4 index and the second for the IOD index, both of which are down from last week.

The last two images were issued today by NOAA showing Eq Pac Evolution plots for SSTA and Upper Ocean Heat Anoms, respectively.  Both of which indicate continuing ENSO neutral conditions.
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
« Reply #771 on: June 27, 2016, 05:16:57 PM »
The four attached plots were all issued today by the BoM for weekly data thru the week ending June 26 2016, & show the Nino 1, 2, 3 & 4 indices, respectively.  This data indicates neutral ENSO conditions.
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
« Reply #772 on: June 28, 2016, 04:40:20 AM »
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM; the 30-day moving average SOI has moved up to +4.5:
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
« Reply #773 on: June 29, 2016, 03:20:19 AM »
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM; the 30-day moving average SOI has moved up to +5.5:
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

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Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
« Reply #774 on: June 29, 2016, 09:47:42 AM »
Kind of a stand still anticipating a drop into La Nina territory during July. The most interesting area right now is probably the one that contains the earlier discussed Nino CP region. Not only for teleconnections to the Arctic but also because it contains the smaller Nino4 region which is an important area during a transition to La Nina.

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
« Reply #775 on: June 30, 2016, 03:21:26 AM »
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM; the 30-day moving average SOI has drifted up to +5.6:
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

Sleepy

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Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
« Reply #776 on: June 30, 2016, 08:20:10 AM »
An animated comparison between June28 & June29 of the same region as in Reply #774.
It shows warming again, that area is amazingly stubborn.

I also noted Robert Scribblers latest and that several people got hung up on the jet stream crossing the equator. That itself is not unusual as it has happened many times before. The changes in wind anomalies in the stratosphere are, which can be observed by the QBO index.

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
« Reply #777 on: July 01, 2016, 03:24:47 AM »
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM; the 30-day moving average SOI has drifted up to +5.7:
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

Sleepy

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Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
« Reply #778 on: July 01, 2016, 07:28:27 AM »
A study published in 2012 on what might be going on in the Nino3 area (open access):
Parameterization of Tropical Instability Waves and Examination of Their Impact on ENSO Characteristics
http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/full/10.1175/JCLI-D-11-00233.1
Abstract.
Quote
The impact of tropical instability waves (TIWs) on El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) characteristics is investigated by introducing a new parameterization of TIWs into an atmosphere–ocean general circulation model (AOGCM), the Model for Interdisciplinary Research on Climate (MIROC), with a medium-resolution (~1.4°) ocean model (known as MIROCmedres). Because this resolution is not sufficient to reproduce eddies at the spatial scale of TIWs, this approach isolates TIW effects from other factors that can affect ENSO characteristics. The parameterization scheme represents the effect of baroclinic eddy heat transport by TIWs. A 100-yr integration reveals a significant role of TIWs in observed ENSO asymmetry. Asymmetric heat transport associated with TIWs that are active (inactive) during La Niña (El Niño) generates a significant asymmetric negative feedback to ENSO and explains the observed asymmetric feature of a stronger-amplitude El Niño and weaker-amplitude La Niña. Furthermore, the parameterized eddy heat flux also affects the mean subsurface heat balance via the shallowing and steepening thermocline. This change in subsurface stratification induces a stronger thermocline feedback and a longer ENSO period.
A small quote from the summary as well.
Quote
Observational data have shown that the asymmetry of ENSO has increased concurrent with the 1970s climate shift (Wu and Hsieh 2003; An 2004; An and Jin 2004; An et al. 2005). An and Jin (2004) reported that the interdecadal changes in ENSO nonlinearity were related to SST climate-state change and subsurface temperature. Many studies have shown that the SST pattern change in the 1970s has produced local maximum values in the off-equatorial eastern Pacific in both the Northern and Southern Hemispheres (e.g., Imada and Kimoto 2009); that is, the increasing meridional SST gradient at the north of the cold tongue is favorable for the activation of TIWs.
My bold in both quotes above.

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
« Reply #779 on: July 02, 2016, 03:27:51 AM »
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM; the 30-day moving average SOI has drifted up to +5.8:
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

Sleepy

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Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
« Reply #780 on: July 02, 2016, 07:14:00 AM »
Multidecadal Variations of the Effects of the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation on the Climate System.
http://www.atmos-chem-phys-discuss.net/acp-2016-502/
Quote
Effects of the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO) on tropospheric climate are relatively small or appear only intermittently. Studying them requires long time series of both the QBO and climate variables, which has restricted previous studies to the past 30-50 years. Here we use the benefits of an existing QBO reconstruction back to 1908. We first investigate additional, newly digitized historical observations of stratospheric winds to test the reconstruction. Then we use 20 the QBO time series to analyze atmospheric data sets (reconstructions and reanalyses) as well as the results of coupled ocean-atmosphere-chemistry climate model simulations that were forced with the reconstructed QBO. We investigate effects related to (1) tropical-extratropical interaction in the stratosphere, wave-mean flow interaction, and subsequent downward propagation and (2) interaction between deep tropical convection and stratospheric flow. We generally find weak connections, though some are statistically significant over the 100-year period and consistent with model results. Apparent 25 multidecadal variations in the connection between the QBO and the investigated climate responses are consistent with a small effect in the presence of large variability, with one exception: the imprint on the northern polar vortex, which is seen in recent reanalysis data, is not found in the period 1908-1957. Conversely, an imprint in Berlin surface air temperature is only found in 1908-1957, but not in the recent period. In the model simulations, likewise, both links tend to appear alternatingly, suggesting a more systematic modulation. Over the Pacific warm pool, we find increased convection during easterly QBO 30 mainly in boreal winter in observation-based data as well as in the model simulations, with large variability. No QBO effects were found in the Indian monsoon strength or Atlantic hurricane frequency.


The Impact of GCM Dynamical Cores on Idealized Sudden Stratospheric Warmings and their QBO Interactions
http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/JAS-D-15-0242.1
Quote
The paper demonstrates that Sudden Stratospheric Warmings (SSWs) can be simulated in an ensemble of dry dynamical cores that miss the typical SSW forcing mechanisms like moist processes, land-sea contrasts or topography. These idealized General Circulation Model (GCM) simulations are driven by a simple Held-Suarez-Williamson (HSW) temperature relaxation and low-level Rayleigh friction. In particular, the four dynamical cores of NCAR’s Community Atmosphere Model version 5 (CAM5) are used which are the semi-Lagrangian (SLD) and Eulerian (EUL) spectral transform models, the Finite-Volume (FV) and the Spectral Element (SE) model.

Three research themes are discussed. First, it is shown that SSW events in such idealized simulations have very realistic flow characteristics that are analyzed via the SLD model. A single vortex-split event is highlighted that is driven by wavenumber 1 and 2 wave-mean flow interactions. Secondly, the SLD simulations are compared to the EUL, FV and SE dynamical cores, which sheds light on the impact of the numerical schemes on the circulation. Only SLD produces major SSWs while others only exhibit minor stratospheric warmings. These differences are caused by SLD’s more vigorous wave-mean flow interactions in addition to a warm pole bias which leads to relatively weak polar jets in SLD. Thirdly, it is shown that tropical Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO)-like oscillations and SSWs can co-exist in such idealized HSW simulations. They are present in the SLD dynamical core that is used to analyze the QBO-SSW interactions via a Transformed Eulerian Mean (TEM) analysis. The TEM results provide support for the Holton-Tan effect.

Sleepy

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Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
« Reply #781 on: July 02, 2016, 07:16:22 AM »
This one's unfortunately paywalled.

Mjo-related intraseasonal variation of gravity waves in the southern hemisphere tropical stratosphere revealed by high-resolution airs observations.
http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2015JD024463/abstract
Quote
The intraseasonal variability of gravity waves (GWs) in the austral summer middle stratosphere was examined using dedicated high-resolution temperature retrieval from the Atmospheric Infrared Sounder data. Composite maps were made of stratospheric GW temperature variances, large-scale zonal winds around the tropopause, and precipitation based on the real-time multivariate Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) index. Regional distributions of these quantities are synchronized with the MJO: The GW variances are larger for stronger precipitation, and for more strongly westward wind around the tropopause at a given precipitation. These results suggest that the GWs observed by AIRS in the stratosphere originate from convection. Moreover, it is shown that the zonal wind around the tropopause likely controls the GW propagation into the stratosphere by a critical level filtering mechanism and/or the GW generation by an obstacle source effect. This means that the MJO can modulate the middle atmospheric circulation by regulating the GWs in two ways, namely, generation and propagation.

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Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
« Reply #782 on: July 02, 2016, 07:47:45 AM »
Animation/flip between the latest two analyses by BoM, first July01 second June30.
Click to animate.

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
« Reply #783 on: July 02, 2016, 07:38:49 PM »
Per the linked reference, the Indo-Pacific warm pool is growing (32% in the past 60-years) and warming due to anthropogenic causes:

Evan Weller, Seung-Ki Min, Wenju Cai, Francis W. Zwiers, Yeon-Hee Kim and Donghyun Lee (01 Jul 2016), "Human-caused Indo-Pacific warm pool expansion", Science Advances, Vol. 2, no. 7, e1501719, DOI: 10.1126/sciadv.1501719


http://advances.sciencemag.org/content/2/7/e1501719

Abstract: "The Indo-Pacific warm pool (IPWP) has warmed and grown substantially during the past century. The IPWP is Earth’s largest region of warm sea surface temperatures (SSTs), has the highest rainfall, and is fundamental to global atmospheric circulation and hydrological cycle. The region has also experienced the world’s highest rates of sea-level rise in recent decades, indicating large increases in ocean heat content and leading to substantial impacts on small island states in the region. Previous studies have considered mechanisms for the basin-scale ocean warming, but not the causes of the observed IPWP expansion, where expansion in the Indian Ocean has far exceeded that in the Pacific Ocean. We identify human and natural contributions to the observed IPWP changes since the 1950s by comparing observations with climate model simulations using an optimal fingerprinting technique. Greenhouse gas forcing is found to be the dominant cause of the observed increases in IPWP intensity and size, whereas natural fluctuations associated with the Pacific Decadal Oscillation have played a smaller yet significant role. Further, we show that the shape and impact of human-induced IPWP growth could be asymmetric between the Indian and Pacific basins, the causes of which remain uncertain. Human-induced changes in the IPWP have important implications for understanding and projecting related changes in monsoonal rainfall, and frequency or intensity of tropical storms, which have profound socioeconomic consequences."

See also:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/energy-environment/wp/2016/07/01/the-biggest-body-of-warm-water-on-earth-is-getting-even-bigger/

Extract: "And the warm pool is growing.
“It is about four or five times larger than Australia,” said Seung-Ki Min, a researcher at Pohang University of Science and Technology in South Korea and an author of a new study in Science Advances on the warm pool’s expansion. “It has been increasing about 32 percent over the last 60 years in size.”"
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
« Reply #784 on: July 03, 2016, 03:17:17 AM »
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM; the 30-day moving average SOI has drifted up to +5.9:
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

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Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
« Reply #785 on: July 04, 2016, 03:28:42 AM »
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM; the 30-day moving average SOI has remained constant at +5.9:
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

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Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
« Reply #786 on: July 04, 2016, 06:59:22 AM »
So, the pacific storm drought is coming to an end according to JTWC.
Earlier records of inactivity in the western pacific were in 72-73 and 97-98 (198 days) and 82-83 (196 days). The warmer than normal waters in the western pacific has been countered by stronger than normal vertical wind shear.

In the eastern pacific the previously latest date for a troiplcal storm to form was in 20090621 with Andres.

Edit; read this now: http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/west-pacific-ocean-longest-stretch-without-tropical-activity-on-record-july-2/58455831
Quote
The new record of 199 days ended on Sunday with the development of Tropical Storm Nepartak. The lack of tropical systems occurred from Dec. 17, 2015 to July 2, 2016.
Quote
The development of Nepartak ended this season's bid to break another tropical record. July 7 marks the latest start to a single season without a named tropical system in history
« Last Edit: July 04, 2016, 07:10:45 AM by Sleepy »

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
« Reply #787 on: July 04, 2016, 05:14:36 PM »
The first two images were issued today by the BoM for the week ending July 3 2016, showing the Nino 3.4 and IOD, indices, respectively.

The last two images were issued today by NOAA, with the first showing the CFSv2 Nino 3.4 forecast and the second showing the NCPB MJO forecast.

All of these images support the idea that ENSO neutral conditions will prevail for some time (months) to come.
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

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Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
« Reply #788 on: July 04, 2016, 05:18:39 PM »
The four attached images were all issued today by the BoM thru the week ending July 3 2016 and show the Nino 1, 2, 3 & 4 indices, respectively.  All images indicate ENSO neutral conditions.
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

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Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
« Reply #789 on: July 05, 2016, 06:35:35 AM »
Latest analysis by BoM (20160704) shows that subsurface cold pool strengthening again. And warmer anomalies both below and above strengthening. The anaysis from 20160701 seemed a bit odd. Not cropped and no animation this time.

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Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
« Reply #790 on: July 05, 2016, 07:42:26 AM »
BoM have issued a Negative Indian Ocean Dipole. Current weekly IOD value is the lowest on 15 years according to BoM. Often means higher maxtemps and warmer nights in the northern parts of Australia. They also indicate that if a La Niña forms, climate models suggest it's unlikely that it would be of the same magnitude as during 2010-2012.

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/

Latest ONI value from NOAA for AMJ is +0,7.ENSO of 1992 and 1983 both had a higher AMJ value at +1,0 respectively. 1958 had an equal high value at this time of year. So did 1987 too, but that year should be seen as a special case. None of the years 1992, 1983 and 1958 saw a La Niña emerging during the second half of year. In fact, 1958 saw a minimal El Niño developing through the beginning of 1959.
« Last Edit: July 05, 2016, 07:59:28 AM by Lord M Vader »

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
« Reply #791 on: July 05, 2016, 04:34:00 PM »
The following weekly NOAA Nino data indicates that the Nino 3.4 index remained unchanged at -0.4C:

                   Nino1+2      Nino3         Nino34        Nino4
 Week           SST SSTA    SST SSTA   SST SSTA    SST SSTA

 01JUN2016     23.4 0.0     26.4-0.3     27.6-0.2     29.3 0.5
 08JUN2016     23.7 0.6     26.6 0.0     27.8 0.1     29.5 0.6
 15JUN2016     23.3 0.4     26.6 0.2     27.8 0.2     29.5 0.7
 22JUN2016     22.4-0.1     25.9-0.3     27.2-0.4     29.3 0.5
 29JUN2016     22.6 0.4     25.9-0.1     27.1-0.4     29.1 0.3

The first three attached images were all issued today by NOAA for the Eq Pac, with the first two showing the Evolutions for the SSTA and the Upper Ocean Heat Anom, respectively.  The third image shows the Upper Ocean Heat Anom; while the fourth image was issued yesterday by the BoM and indicates that the 30-day moving average SOI has drifted down to +5.1.  These images support the idea of neutral ENSO conditions.
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AbruptSLR

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Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
« Reply #792 on: July 06, 2016, 03:29:22 AM »
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM; the 30-day moving average SOI has remained constant at +5.1:
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

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Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
« Reply #793 on: July 06, 2016, 10:19:22 AM »
As for the aftermath of this thread, in -67 Manabe and Wetherald projected a cooling stratosphere over a warming troposphere, what are we seeing now?
 
A qoute from the following paper by Gerber and also the 1st picture attached with the vertical temperature structure of the atmosphere showing the January zonal-mean temperature at 40 N.
The Stratosphere and its Coupling to the Troposphere and Beyond
http://math.nyu.edu/~gerber/pages/documents/gerber-strat_trop_coupling-Encyc_Applied_Comp_Math.pdf
Quote
Anthropogenic forcing has changed the stratosphere, with resulting impacts on the surface. While greenhouse gases warm the troposphere, they increase the radiative efficiency of the stratosphere, leading to a net cooling in this part of the atmosphere. The combination of a warming troposphere and cooling stratosphere leads to a rise in the tropopause, and may be one of the most identifiable signatures of global warming on the atmospheric circulation.
We have seen changes in stratospheric winds (QBO) as mentioned above in this thread, but what about the temperatures after this El Nino?
The main point of entry is in the tropics, attached in the 2nd picture are the tropical zonal mean temperatures for 70, 50 and 30mb. They are showing cooler than normal temperatures. If that will affect higher latitudes we surely must see some effects in the following year?

To visualise what I'm playing with, I'll attach a 3rd picture, Fig14 from this recent article:
Tambora and the “Year Without a Summer” of 1816. A Perspective on Earth and Human Systems Science.
http://www.geography.unibe.ch/unibe/portal/fak_naturwis/e_geowiss/c_igeogr/content/e39624/e39625/e39626/e426207/e431533/tambora_e_web_eng.pdf

If warming thanks to eruptions gives that delay seen in the 3rd picture (Fig14), would not cooling thanks to global warming and the recent strong El Nino do the (mirrored) same?
82-83 is a bad year to check (thanks to El Chichon) but after 97-98, a cooling is possible to see over the Arctic the following winter and spring. How much warmer, wetter and (less) ice will that give in 2017?

Or have I simply lost my marbles? :)

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Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
« Reply #794 on: July 06, 2016, 04:11:09 PM »
Oh, Nepartak is a Cat5 now.
JTWC: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 150 KT, GUSTS 180 KT
Heading towards Taiwan.

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
« Reply #795 on: July 07, 2016, 03:25:47 AM »
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM; the 30-day moving average SOI has remained constant at +5.1:
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

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Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
« Reply #796 on: July 07, 2016, 07:14:03 AM »
More QBO.
A quote from a tweet by Sam Lillo including the 1st picture.
Quote
QBO still in process of shifting nearly 180 degrees out of phase from the oscillation we've observed for decades

2nd picture from the University of Reading showing a time-pressure section for the last two years zonal mean equatorial winds in more detail than the graphs from fu-berlin posted earlier.

An older link to Sandro Wellyanto Lubis site describing planetary waves.
https://sandrolubis.wordpress.com/2012/09/19/planetary-waves/
Quote
Planetary waves can be defined as large-scale perturbations or disturbances of the atmospheric dynamical structure having zonal wavelengths of the scale of the earth’s radius. These waves have significant influence on the wind speeds, temperature, distribution of ozone, and other characteristics of the middle atmosphere structure. Planetary waves (PW) are responsible for the longer-period variability in the stratospheric dynamic such as QBO, SSW, and vacillation of the mean flow at extratropical latitudes and also play an important role in the dynamic of MLT (Salby 1984, Pogoreltsev et al., 2007, Forbes et al. 2004). These waves are generated by orographic and diabatic heating in the troposphere and also possible forced by irregular thermal or mechanical forcing in the lower atmosphere (Holton 2004, Andrews et al., 1987, Fedulina 2004).

The QBO is not behaving as supposed. Also adding Table II from this paper.
https://www.researchgate.net/publication/291186271_The_Climate-system_Historical_Forecast_Project_Do_stratosphere-resolving_models_make_better_seasonal_climate_predictions_in_boreal_winter

The 82-83 El Nino with a WQBO was followed by QBO neutral. Whatever the QBO is up to now, it will probably mess up some forecasts.

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
« Reply #797 on: July 07, 2016, 09:50:24 PM »
Scribbler notes that not only will Super Typhoon Nepartak have a big impact on Taiwan, but it will also have a big impact on mainland China that has already sustained well above average rainfall (& associated flooding):

https://robertscribbler.com/2016/07/06/rapid-bombification-super-typhoon-nepartak-barrels-toward-taiwan-takes-aim-at-already-flooded-china/

Extract: "Super Typhoon Nepartak Barrels Toward Taiwan, Takes Aim at Already Flooded China"
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

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Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
« Reply #798 on: July 08, 2016, 03:27:17 AM »
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM; the 30-day moving average SOI has soared up to +6.7 (but remains in the neutral range):
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

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Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
« Reply #799 on: July 08, 2016, 08:14:51 AM »
A follow up to my comment in #796 and still stratosphere related. To be blunt, the ECMWF nino plumes are messed up. I've had a hard time accepting the modeled outputs all spring (not only ECMWF). The outputs from January-February were actually better than the following ones.
Attaching the Nino4, Nino3 and Nino34 plumes for June.