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AbruptSLR

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Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
« Reply #850 on: August 01, 2016, 03:33:50 AM »
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM; the 30-day moving average SOI has moved up to +3.5:
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
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AbruptSLR

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Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
« Reply #851 on: August 01, 2016, 05:28:38 PM »

Per the following weekly ENSO data issued by NOAA for the week centered on July 27 2016, the Nino 3.4 index has drifted up to -0.5, while over all conditions remain neutral:

                     Nino1+2      Nino3         Nino34        Nino4
 Week           SST SSTA    SST SSTA   SST SSTA    SST SSTA
 22JUN2016     22.4-0.1     25.9-0.3     27.2-0.4     29.3 0.5
 29JUN2016     22.6 0.4     25.9-0.1     27.1-0.4     29.1 0.3
 06JUL2016     22.2 0.2     25.5-0.4     27.0-0.4     29.1 0.3
 13JUL2016     21.8 0.0     25.1-0.6     26.7-0.6     29.1 0.3
 20JUL2016     21.6 0.2     25.1-0.5     26.6-0.6     29.0 0.3
 27JUL2016     21.3 0.1     24.8-0.6     26.6-0.5     29.0 0.2

The first two images were issued today by the BoM for the week ending July 31 2016, and indicated respectively a Nino 3.4 of -0.37 and a relatively negative IOD.

The third image shows the U at Albany 5S-5N 850-hPa Wind Anom forecast from Aug 1 to 8 2016, indicating conditions favorable for transitioning slowly from ENSO neutral to weakly La Nina conditions.

The fourth image shows the TAO Eq Pac Subsurface Temp & Temp Anom profiles issued Aug 1 2016, indicating a possible transition from neutral to slight/weak La Nina conditions.
« Last Edit: August 01, 2016, 07:21:17 PM by AbruptSLR »
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
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AbruptSLR

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Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
« Reply #852 on: August 01, 2016, 05:31:01 PM »
The four attached plot were issued today by the BoM for the week ending July 31 2016 for the Nino 1, 2, 3 & 4 indices respectively.  They collectively indicate ENSO neutral conditions.
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
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Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
« Reply #853 on: August 01, 2016, 05:34:13 PM »
The three attached images were all issued today by NOAA. The first two show the Eq Pac SSTA & Upper Ocean Heat Anom, evolutions, respectively; while the third image shows the Eq Pac Upper Ocean Heat Anom.  Collectively they indicate ENSO neutral conditions that might possibly be trending towards weak La Nina conditions in coming months.
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
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AbruptSLR

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Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
« Reply #854 on: August 02, 2016, 03:34:50 AM »
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM; the 30-day moving average SOI has moved up to +4.2:

“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

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Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
« Reply #855 on: August 02, 2016, 07:09:46 AM »
The fourth image shows the TAO Eq Pac Subsurface Temp & Temp Anom profiles issued Aug 1 2016, indicating a possible transition from neutral to slight/weak La Nina conditions.
A few days back the readings at the TAO/TRITON data display indicated that -3°C anomaly increasing, while BoM's Ocean Subsurface Analyses did not. Here's the TAO/TRITON plot from 1 Aug (as of today) indicating a decrease again.

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
« Reply #856 on: August 02, 2016, 05:48:24 PM »
The fourth image shows the TAO Eq Pac Subsurface Temp & Temp Anom profiles issued Aug 1 2016, indicating a possible transition from neutral to slight/weak La Nina conditions.
A few days back the readings at the TAO/TRITON data display indicated that -3°C anomaly increasing, while BoM's Ocean Subsurface Analyses did not. Here's the TAO/TRITON plot from 1 Aug (as of today) indicating a decrease again.

Sleepy,

Thanks for keeping us current.  The attached image issued today of CDAS's SSTA shows just how large the sea surface temp instability waves are getting along the Equatorial Pacific.  Thus we can expect signification daily/weekly fluctuations with appreciable uncertainly about long-term trends.

Best,
ASLR
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
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Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
« Reply #857 on: August 03, 2016, 03:43:21 AM »
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM; the 30-day moving average SOI has drifted down to +4.0:
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

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Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
« Reply #858 on: August 03, 2016, 04:02:14 AM »
ASLR, I'm just observing. Now I'm not sure, but to me it seems like those subsurface readings are changing faster now, and if they are, it might also indicate increased subsurface mixing. If that's true, then it also supports the idea of a developing La Nina. Looking at the atmospheric response so far and where those colder surface anomalies are, we might be looking at a weak modoki. Lot's of if's and but's as usual though. :)

There's at least some support for the if's and but's in these papers:
http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v500/n7460/full/nature12363.html
http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2015GL066472/abstract
That last paper is also yet another that indicates that we (science) have not properly accounted for the rotational effects of this planet in the models. As I see it there are no mysteries here, it's "just" a matter of more computational power and money.

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Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
« Reply #859 on: August 03, 2016, 05:25:50 AM »
ASLR, I'm just observing. Now I'm not sure, but to me it seems like those subsurface readings are changing faster now, and if they are, it might also indicate increased subsurface mixing. If that's true, then it also supports the idea of a developing La Nina. Looking at the atmospheric response so far and where those colder surface anomalies are, we might be looking at a weak modoki. Lot's of if's and but's as usual though. :)

There's at least some support for the if's and but's in these papers:
http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v500/n7460/full/nature12363.html
http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2015GL066472/abstract
That last paper is also yet another that indicates that we (science) have not properly accounted for the rotational effects of this planet in the models. As I see it there are no mysteries here, it's "just" a matter of more computational power and money.

Interesting observations (although I am not sure why signs of a developing La Nina soon would indicate that a modoki would follow); particularly as a modoki in the Spring would likely result in decreased Arctic sea ice loss in the summer of 2017 (see the following reference):


Chundi Hu, Song Yang, Qigang Wu,   Zhenning Li, Junwen Chen, Kaiqiang Deng, Tuantuan Zhang & Chengyang Zhang (02 June 2016), "Shifting El Niño inhibits summer Arctic warming and Arctic sea-ice melting over the Canada Basin", Nature Communications 7, Article number: 11721 doi:10.1038/ncomms11721


http://www.nature.com/ncomms/2016/160602/ncomms11721/abs/ncomms11721.html

Abstract: "Arctic climate changes include not only changes in trends and mean states but also strong interannual variations in various fields. Although it is known that tropical-extratropical teleconnection is sensitive to changes in flavours of El Niño, whether Arctic climate variability is linked to El Niño, in particular on interannual timescale, remains unclear. Here we demonstrate for the first time a long-range linkage between central Pacific (CP) El Niño and summer Arctic climate. Observations show that the CP warming related to CP El Niño events deepens the tropospheric Arctic polar vortex and strengthens the circumpolar westerly wind, thereby contributing to inhibiting summer Arctic warming and sea-ice melting. Atmospheric model experiments can generally capture the observed responses of Arctic circulation and robust surface cooling to CP El Niño forcing. We suggest that identification of the equator-Arctic teleconnection, via the ‘atmospheric bridge’, can potentially contribute to improving the skill of predicting Arctic climate."
« Last Edit: August 03, 2016, 05:34:40 AM by AbruptSLR »
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Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
« Reply #860 on: August 03, 2016, 07:42:15 AM »
Sorry ASLR, I saw your orignal post but didn't notice the update until now.
My modoki speculation was mainly due to how the ocean and the (lack of) atmospheric response looks right now, and if a weak modoki then this year.
I've been following that study since I posted it here in early June in Reply #699 and also the extent numbers in the arctic. The CP region in the study differs and is larger than the regular Nino4 and the modoki Nina region is centered around 160°W (if I remember correctly) so I suspect they are not directly comparable. Hotlinking to the picture I posted in #699. (a) depicts the CP region.

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
« Reply #861 on: August 03, 2016, 10:38:49 AM »
I do not know whether the linked reference entitled "Nonlinear ENSO Warming Suppression (NEWS)
causing a La Nina-like mean-state response to global warming" is correct, or not; but it considers a possible mechanism to suppress strong El Nino events with continued global warming:

http://www.atmos.washington.edu/~dennis/KH16_news_ver2.pdf
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Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
« Reply #862 on: August 04, 2016, 03:39:01 AM »
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM; the 30-day moving average SOI has moved up to +4.5:
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

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Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
« Reply #863 on: August 05, 2016, 03:26:51 AM »
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM; the 30-day moving average SOI has moved up to +5.0:
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

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Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
« Reply #864 on: August 05, 2016, 05:49:13 PM »
Per the following link, the 2016 MJJ ONI value is 0.2 (which is in the neutral range):

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ensostuff/ensoyears.shtml
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Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
« Reply #865 on: August 06, 2016, 03:27:24 AM »
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM; the 30-day moving average SOI has drifted down to +4.9:
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

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Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
« Reply #866 on: August 07, 2016, 03:26:28 AM »
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM; the 30-day moving average SOI has drifted down to +4.7:
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

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Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
« Reply #867 on: August 08, 2016, 12:19:38 AM »
The attached plot downloaded from TAO today shows that with regards to WWV and the Nino 3.4 SSTA, our current 2015-16 event seems to more similar to the 82-83 event than the 97-98 event.  Furthermore, in 1983 an official ONI La Nina event was never declared.
« Last Edit: August 08, 2016, 12:39:38 AM by AbruptSLR »
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Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
« Reply #868 on: August 08, 2016, 03:24:07 AM »
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM; the 30-day moving average SOI has drifted down to +4.5:


“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

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Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
« Reply #869 on: August 08, 2016, 04:45:53 PM »
The following weekly NOAA Nino data through the week centered on August 3 2016, indicates that the Nino 3.4 index has remained constant at -0.5; while the first two attached image issued by the BoM for the week ending August 7 2016 indicates that the Nino 3.4 index has drifted up to -0.33, while the IOD have become significantly less negative, respectively:

                     Nino1+2      Nino3         Nino34        Nino4
 Week           SST SSTA    SST SSTA   SST SSTA    SST SSTA
 29JUN2016     22.6 0.4     25.9-0.1     27.1-0.4     29.1 0.3
 06JUL2016     22.2 0.2     25.5-0.4     27.0-0.4     29.1 0.3
 13JUL2016     21.8 0.0     25.1-0.6     26.7-0.6     29.1 0.3
 20JUL2016     21.6 0.2     25.1-0.5     26.6-0.6     29.0 0.3
 27JUL2016     21.3 0.1     24.8-0.6     26.6-0.5     29.0 0.2
 03AUG2016    21.5 0.5     24.7-0.5     26.4-0.5     28.8 0.1

The last two images were issued today by NOAA & show the Eq Pac Evolution for the SSTA and the Upper Ocean Heat Anom, respectively.  All of this data indicates continuing neutral ENSO conditions.
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

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Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
« Reply #870 on: August 08, 2016, 04:48:44 PM »
The four attached images were all issued today by the BoM showing weekly Nino information for the week ending August 7 2016, for the Nino 1, 2, 3 & 4 indices, respectively.  Collectively, these plots indicate continuing neutral ENSO conditions:
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
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Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
« Reply #871 on: August 08, 2016, 09:35:28 PM »
Here are some ENSO related plots that I haven't updated in a while, with all plots issued today, Aug 8 2016:

The first image shows NOAA's Eq Pac Upper Ocean Heat Anom, indicating we are in a plateau.
The second image shows Tao's Eq Pac Subsurface Temp & Temp Anom profiles; confirming that we are in a plateau.
The third image shows the U at Albany 5S-5N 850-hPa Wind Anom forecast, indicating that the recent easterly wind burst is now dissipating.
The fourth image shows the ECMM MJO forecast from Aug 8 to 22 2016, indicating the possibility that the recent atmospheric conditions that favored developing La Nina like conditions, are likely to dissipate (thus supporting the U at Albany 850-hPa wind anom forecast).
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
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Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
« Reply #872 on: August 09, 2016, 03:26:48 AM »
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM; the 30-day moving average SOI has moved up to +5.0:
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

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Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
« Reply #873 on: August 09, 2016, 07:23:29 PM »
I do not know much about the QBO (see various posts by Sleepy & the attached image about the structure of the QBO), but as it is changing rapidly at the moment I provide  the following link to Freire Universitat – Berlin article entitled: "The Quasi-Biennial-Oscillation (QBO) Data Serie":

http://www.geo.fu-berlin.de/en/met/ag/strat/produkte/qbo/

Extract: "Almost 50 years ago, the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO) of the winds in the equatorial stratosphere was detected due to the establishment of a global, regularly measuring radiosonde network (Graystone, 1959; Ebdon, 1960)."
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Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
« Reply #874 on: August 10, 2016, 03:25:56 AM »
Per the following data issued today by the BoM; the 30-day moving average SOI has drifted down to +4.9:

20160710,20160808,4.9

Edit: Here is the associated plot
« Last Edit: August 10, 2016, 03:38:56 AM by AbruptSLR »
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Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
« Reply #875 on: August 10, 2016, 05:06:45 AM »
Found this now, finally a paper about this. And paywalled of course.  :-X

The anomalous change in the QBO in 2015-16
http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2016GL070373/abstract

Quote
Abstract

The quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) is a tropical lower stratospheric, downward propagating zonal wind variation, with an average period of ~28 months. The QBO has been constantly documented since 1953. Here we describe the evolution of the QBO during the Northern Hemisphere winter of 2015-16 using radiosonde observations and meteorological reanalyses. Normally, the QBO would show a steady downward propagation of the westerly phase. In 2015-16, there was an anomalous upward displacement of this westerly phase from ~30 hPa to 15 hPa. These westerlies impinge on, or “cut-off” the normal downward propagation of the easterly phase. In addition, easterly winds develop at 40 hPa. Comparisons to tropical wind statistics for the 1953-present record demonstrate that this 2015-16 QBO disruption is unprecedented.

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Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
« Reply #876 on: August 10, 2016, 09:52:26 AM »
ECMWF's July Nino plumes.

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
« Reply #877 on: August 11, 2016, 03:25:37 AM »
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM; the 30-day moving average SOI has drifted down to +4.7:
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
« Reply #878 on: August 12, 2016, 03:28:25 AM »
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM; the 30-day moving average SOI has moved down to +3.9:
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

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Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
« Reply #879 on: August 13, 2016, 03:25:40 AM »
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM; the 30-day moving average SOI has moved up to +4.4, and thus remains neutral:
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

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Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
« Reply #880 on: August 13, 2016, 07:14:22 AM »
A nice graph made by Anthony Masiello. Precipitable water vapor anomalies between June 1997 to June 2016 with plotted Jan 1998 max.

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Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
« Reply #881 on: August 14, 2016, 03:28:16 AM »
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM; the 30-day moving average SOI has moved up to +4.9:
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

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Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
« Reply #882 on: August 15, 2016, 03:26:53 AM »
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM; the 30-day moving average SOI has drifted down to +4.7:
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

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Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
« Reply #883 on: August 15, 2016, 05:22:01 PM »
The following information indicates that for the past week, while remaining neutral, ENSO conditions have fluctuated towards La Nina-like conditions, as indicated by all of the Nino indices for the week centered on August 10 2016 in the following NOAA data:


                     Nino1+2      Nino3         Nino34        Nino4
 Week           SST SSTA    SST SSTA   SST SSTA    SST SSTA
 29JUN2016     22.6 0.4     25.9-0.1     27.1-0.4     29.1 0.3
 06JUL2016     22.2 0.2     25.5-0.4     27.0-0.4     29.1 0.3
 13JUL2016     21.8 0.0     25.1-0.6     26.7-0.6     29.1 0.3
 20JUL2016     21.6 0.2     25.1-0.5     26.6-0.6     29.0 0.3
 27JUL2016     21.3 0.1     24.8-0.6     26.6-0.5     29.0 0.2
 03AUG2016     21.5 0.5     24.7-0.5     26.4-0.5     28.8 0.1
 10AUG2016     21.0 0.1     24.5-0.7     26.3-0.6     28.6-0.1

The first two attached images were issued by the BoM thru the week ending August 14 2016 and show the Nino 3.4 at -0.43 and the IOD index becoming markedly less negative.

The third image shows the ECMM MJO forecast from August 15 to 29 2016, showing that the atmosphere now weakly favors El Nino-like conditions for the coming two weeks.

The fourth image shows NOAA's Eq Pac Upper Ocean Heat Anom thru August 15 2016, which indicates the impact of the recent strong trade winds.
« Last Edit: August 15, 2016, 05:28:14 PM by AbruptSLR »
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Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
« Reply #884 on: August 15, 2016, 05:25:37 PM »
The four attached images were all issued today by the BoM thru the week ending Aug 14 2016 for the Nino 1, 2, 3 & 4 indices, respectively, and while they are all lower than last week, they all indicate current ENSO neutral conditions:
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

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Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
« Reply #885 on: August 15, 2016, 05:35:22 PM »
The first image shows the U at Albany 5S-5N 850-hPa Wind Anom forecast from August 15 to 22 2016; which confirms that for the forecast period the atmosphere will weakly favor El Nino inducing conditions.

The second & third images were issued today by NOAA showing the Eq Pac Evolutions for the SSTA and the Upper Ocean Heat Anom, respectively; & both show the impacts of the recent strong trade winds.

The fourth image shows the TAO Eq Pac Subsurface Temp & Temp Anom profiles issued August 15 2016, which indicates that the cool pool at depth is continuing to dissipate which implies that the recent down-turn in the Upper Ocean Heat Anom is due to the recent strong trade wind impact on Eq Pac SSTA.
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
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AbruptSLR

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Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
« Reply #886 on: August 16, 2016, 03:25:02 AM »
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM; the 30-day moving average SOI has drifted down to +4.5:
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
« Reply #887 on: August 17, 2016, 03:26:56 AM »
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM; the 30-day moving average SOI has moved up to +5.0:
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
« Reply #888 on: August 18, 2016, 03:25:12 AM »
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM; the 30-day moving average SOI has drifted down to +4.9:
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
« Reply #889 on: August 19, 2016, 03:52:47 AM »
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM; the 30-day moving average SOI has moved down to +4.1:
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

Bruce Steele

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Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
« Reply #890 on: August 19, 2016, 06:31:17 AM »
The PDO index comes in at 1.25 for July. I would expect it to drop further as the El Niño fades .
If it goes negative I doubt it will go negative for long.
Question for AbruptSLR - 
Is there a mechanism to adjust the PDO index to the rising  SST trend in the Pacific ?  If the El Niño in the Niño34 region for three months at +.5 is adjusted over time to trend I was wondering about the PDO.

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
« Reply #891 on: August 19, 2016, 10:03:27 AM »
The PDO index comes in at 1.25 for July. I would expect it to drop further as the El Niño fades .
If it goes negative I doubt it will go negative for long.
Question for AbruptSLR - 
Is there a mechanism to adjust the PDO index to the rising  SST trend in the Pacific ?  If the El Niño in the Niño34 region for three months at +.5 is adjusted over time to trend I was wondering about the PDO.

Bruce,

As the issue that you raise is a little complicated (because the PDO index is reconstructed as the superimposition of both tropical forcing and extra-tropical processes), I provide the following link to the Wikipedia article about the PDO, which notes that linear inverse modeling (LIM) can be used to account for global trends for up to 4 seasons (see the following extract):

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pacific_decadal_oscillation



Extract: “NOAA's forecast products do not include the PDO at this time. Alexander et al., explored the prediction skill of a linear inverse modeling (LIM) method to predict the PDO, LIM assumes that the PDO can be separated into a linear deterministic component and a non-linear component represented by random fluctuations.

Much of the LIM PDO predictability arises from ENSO and the global trend rather than extra-tropical processes and is thus limited to ~4 seasons. The prediction is consistent with the seasonal footprinting mechanism in which an optimal SST structure evolves into the ENSO mature phase 6–10 months later that subsequently impacts the North Pacific Ocean SST via the atmospheric bridge.

Skills in predicting decadal PDO variability could arise from taking into account the impact of the externally forced and internally generatedPacific variability. The difference in phasing of the PDO can provide predictive power for regional climate anomalies, such as is the case for the American West's drought cycle. The Great Salt Lake of Utah, for example, follows a distinct phase of this oscillation.
Commercial climate forecasting vendors such as MW&A, utilize solar factors to predict the PDO index. This vendor also utilizes the PDO, along with other parameters to forecast drought patterns in the American West.”
Best,
ASLR
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Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
« Reply #892 on: August 19, 2016, 06:11:08 PM »
Further to my last post, the linked reference indicates that it would be advisable to develop a PDO Index based on heat content in the upper 300 meters of the ocean (HC300) as opposed to the traditional definition of PDO based on SST's:

Arun Kumar and Caihong Wen (2016), "An Oceanic Heat Content Based Definition for the Pacific Decadal Oscillation", Monthly Weather Review, DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/MWR-D-16-0080.1

http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/MWR-D-16-0080.1

Abstract: "Based on the variability of heat content in the upper 300 meters of the ocean (HC300), the feasibility of defining an index of Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) is explored. The motivation for defining PDO index on HC300 stems from the following considerations: (a) a need to accentuate lower frequency variations in the monitoring of PDO and (b) to take into account variations in the temperatures associated with the PDO that extend throughout the upper ocean (and are modulated by the seasonal cycle of mixed layer variability). It is demonstrated that HC300 based definition is better suited to encapsulate these characteristics in the PDO variability. The variability in an HC300 based definition is also contrasted with the traditional definition of the PDO based on SSTs."
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AbruptSLR

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Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
« Reply #893 on: August 20, 2016, 03:28:45 AM »
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM; the 30-day moving average SOI has dropped down to +3.3:
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

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Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
« Reply #894 on: August 21, 2016, 03:23:34 AM »
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM; the 30-day moving average SOI has drifted up to +3.7:
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

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Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
« Reply #895 on: August 22, 2016, 03:23:20 AM »
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM; the 30-day moving average SOI has dropped down to +3.0:
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

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Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
« Reply #896 on: August 22, 2016, 05:00:12 PM »
Per the following data, and the first image of the Eq Pac SSTA Evolution, issued by NOAA for the week centered on Aug 17 2016; the second image issued by NOAA today of the Eq Pac Upper Ocean Heat Anom, and the last two images issued today by the BoM for the week ending Aug 21 2016 (for Nino 3.4 and the IOD, respectively); ENSO conditions remain neutral:

                     Nino1+2      Nino3         Nino34        Nino4
 Week           SST SSTA    SST SSTA   SST SSTA    SST SSTA
 29JUN2016     22.6 0.4     25.9-0.1     27.1-0.4     29.1 0.3
 06JUL2016     22.2 0.2     25.5-0.4     27.0-0.4     29.1 0.3
 13JUL2016     21.8 0.0     25.1-0.6     26.7-0.6     29.1 0.3
 20JUL2016     21.6 0.2     25.1-0.5     26.6-0.6     29.0 0.3
 27JUL2016     21.3 0.1     24.8-0.6     26.6-0.5     29.0 0.2
 03AUG2016     21.5 0.5     24.7-0.5     26.4-0.5     28.8 0.1
 10AUG2016     21.0 0.1     24.5-0.7     26.3-0.6     28.6-0.1
 17AUG2016     21.1 0.5     24.5-0.5     26.3-0.5     28.7 0.0
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
« Reply #897 on: August 22, 2016, 05:02:13 PM »
The four attached images were issued today by the BoM for the week ending Aug 21 2016, and show the Nino 1, 2, 3 & 4 indices, respectively; all indicating neutral ENSO conditions:
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

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Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
« Reply #898 on: August 23, 2016, 03:30:47 AM »
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM; the 30-day moving average SOI has drifted down to +2.8:
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
« Reply #899 on: August 24, 2016, 03:26:18 AM »
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM; the 30-day moving average SOI has moved up to +3.3, and thus remains neutral:
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson