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AbruptSLR

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Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
« Reply #900 on: August 25, 2016, 03:26:02 AM »
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM; the 30-day moving average SOI has moved down to +2.5:
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
« Reply #901 on: August 26, 2016, 03:37:44 AM »
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM; the 30-day moving average SOI has moved up to +3.0:
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
« Reply #902 on: August 27, 2016, 03:28:00 AM »
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM; the 30-day moving average SOI has moved up to +4.1:
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
« Reply #903 on: August 28, 2016, 03:26:46 AM »
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM; the 30-day moving average SOI has moved up to +4.6:
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
« Reply #904 on: August 29, 2016, 03:34:23 AM »
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM; the 30-day moving average SOI has moved up to +5.1:
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
« Reply #905 on: August 29, 2016, 05:13:19 PM »
The following table provides NOAA weekly Nino index values thru the week centered on August 24 2016, and shows a Nino 3.4 value of -0.6C.  However, the BoM shows a Nino 3.4 value of -0.42C, with the first two images issued by the BoM for the week ending August 28 2016, for the Nino 3.4 and the IOD, respectively.  The third image shows TAO's Eq Pac Subsurface Temp & Temp Anom profiles issued Aug 29 2016, and the fourth image shows NOAA's Eq Pac Upper Ocean Heat Anom also issued on Aug 29 2016, both of which indicate that the deep cool pool of water is slowly dissipating.  Taken together this information indicates that the ENSO remains on the cool side of neutral:

                     Nino1+2      Nino3         Nino34        Nino4
 Week           SST SSTA    SST SSTA   SST SSTA    SST SSTA
 20JUL2016     21.6 0.2     25.1-0.5     26.6-0.6     29.0 0.3
 27JUL2016     21.3 0.1     24.8-0.6     26.6-0.5     29.0 0.2
 03AUG2016     21.5 0.5     24.7-0.5     26.4-0.5     28.8 0.1
 10AUG2016     21.0 0.1     24.5-0.7     26.3-0.6     28.6-0.1
 17AUG2016     21.1 0.5     24.5-0.5     26.3-0.5     28.7 0.0
 24AUG2016     20.8 0.2     24.4-0.5     26.2-0.6     28.6-0.1
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
« Reply #906 on: August 29, 2016, 05:16:08 PM »
The four attached images were all issued today by the BoM for the week ending August 28 2016, and show the Nino 1, 2, 3 & 4 indices, respectively.  Taken together this information indicates that the ENSO remains on the cool side of neutral.
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
« Reply #907 on: August 30, 2016, 03:16:57 AM »
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM; the 30-day moving average SOI has drifted down to +4.9:
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

Lord M Vader

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Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
« Reply #908 on: August 30, 2016, 07:59:28 AM »
If a La Niña will develope later this year, I'm inclined to believe it will be a "Modoki La Niña" given the current temp anomalies in the Pacific. From what I have found out, Modoki Niñas for example enhance the possibility for a wintertime positive NAO in western Europe, opposite to the EP based Niña as well as .

I've found following articles discussing Modoki La Niñas. Right now I don't have the time to dig deeper into this so I'm just put the links here for eventual further discussions depending on how the proposed weak La Niña evolves. These articles are free don't need any payment but are open:

http://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s11434-012-5423-5

http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2011JC007304/abstract

http://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s00382-014-2155-z

Best, LMV

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
« Reply #909 on: August 31, 2016, 04:25:09 AM »
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM; the 30-day moving average SOI has moved up to +5.4:
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
« Reply #910 on: September 01, 2016, 03:27:05 AM »
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM; the 30-day moving average SOI has drifted down to +5.3 (and thus remains ENSO neutral):
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
« Reply #911 on: September 02, 2016, 04:56:00 AM »
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM; the 30-day moving average SOI has remained constant at +5.3:
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
« Reply #912 on: September 03, 2016, 03:25:46 AM »
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM; the 30-day moving average SOI has moved up to +5.8:
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
« Reply #913 on: September 04, 2016, 03:28:15 AM »
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM; the 30-day moving average SOI has moved up to +6.2:
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

Sigmetnow

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Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
« Reply #914 on: September 04, 2016, 08:11:05 PM »
NASA on the QBO:

A Strange Thing Happened in the Stratosphere
Quote
High above Earth’s tropics, a pattern of winds changed recently in a way that scientists had never seen in more than 60 years of consistent measurements.

This disruption to the wind pattern – called the “quasi-biennial oscillation” – did not have any immediate impact on weather or climate as we experience it on Earth’s surface. But it does raise interesting questions for the NASA scientists who observed it: If a pattern holds for six decades and then suddenly changes, what caused that to happen? Will it happen again? What effects might it have?

“The quasi-biennial oscillation is the stratosphere’s Old Faithful,” said Paul Newman, Chief Scientist for Earth Sciences at NASA’s Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, Maryland, and lead author on a new paper about the event published online in Geophysical Research Letters. “If Old Faithful stopped for a day, you’d begin to wonder about what was happening under the ground.”
...
With this disruption now documented, Newman and colleagues are currently focused on studying both its causes and potential implications. They have two hypotheses for what could have triggered it – the particularly strong El Niño in 2015-16 or the long-term trend of rising global temperatures. Newman said the scientists are conducting further research now to figure out if the event was a “black swan,” a once-in-a-generation event, or a “canary in the coal mine,” a shift with unforeseen circumstances, caused by climate change.
http://www.nasa.gov/feature/goddard/2016/a-strange-thing-happened-in-the-stratosphere
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AbruptSLR

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Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
« Reply #915 on: September 05, 2016, 03:38:58 AM »
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM; the 30-day moving average SOI has moved up to +6.7:

“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

budmantis

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Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
« Reply #916 on: September 05, 2016, 06:25:15 AM »
NASA on the QBO:

A Strange Thing Happened in the Stratosphere

Sigmetnow:

What are the implications for this phenomenon or is that an unknown at this point?

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
« Reply #917 on: September 05, 2016, 07:46:30 PM »
The first two images were issued today by the BoM & show the Nino 3.4 and IOD for the week ending Sept 4 2016.  The third image shows NOAA's Eq Pac Upper Ocean Heat Anom issued Sept 5 2016; while the fourth image shows TAO's Eq Pac Subsurface Temp & Temp Anom profiles also issued Sept 5 2016.  Taken together with the following Weekly Nino data issued by NOAA through the week centered on August 31 2016 (with a Nino 3.4 of -0.7C); this indicates that the ENSO is fluctuating about the cool side of neutral:


                     Nino1+2      Nino3         Nino34        Nino4
 Week           SST SSTA    SST SSTA   SST SSTA    SST SSTA
 27JUL2016     21.3 0.1     24.8-0.6     26.6-0.5     29.0 0.2
 03AUG2016     21.5 0.5     24.7-0.5     26.4-0.5     28.8 0.1
 10AUG2016     21.0 0.1     24.5-0.7     26.3-0.6     28.6-0.1
 17AUG2016     21.1 0.5     24.5-0.5     26.3-0.5     28.7 0.0
 24AUG2016     20.8 0.2     24.4-0.5     26.2-0.6     28.6-0.1
 31AUG2016     20.9 0.3     24.6-0.3     26.0-0.7     28.5-0.1
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
« Reply #918 on: September 05, 2016, 07:48:26 PM »
The four attached weekly plots were issued today by the BoM for the week ending Sept 4 2016 & show the Nino 1,2, 3 & 4, indices, respectively.  This data indicates that the ENSO continues to fluctuate on the cool side of neutral:
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

Lord M Vader

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Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
« Reply #919 on: September 05, 2016, 08:25:41 PM »
Latest ONI value for JJA was down to -0,3.

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
« Reply #920 on: September 06, 2016, 04:20:49 AM »
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM; the 30-day moving average SOI has moved up to +7.2:
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
« Reply #921 on: September 07, 2016, 03:33:49 AM »
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM; the 30-day moving average SOI has moved up to +7.7:
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
« Reply #922 on: September 08, 2016, 03:43:45 AM »
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM; the 30-day moving average SOI has moved down to +6.8:
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

jai mitchell

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Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
« Reply #923 on: September 08, 2016, 05:16:14 PM »
the NOAA ENSO diagnostic analysis has been updated reflecting new model runs that indicate a stronger neutral ENSO this year.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_disc_sep2016/ensodisc.shtml

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Sigmetnow

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Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
« Reply #924 on: September 08, 2016, 07:51:21 PM »
CPC's @ejbecker looks at thinking behind cancelling #LaNina Watch

September 2016 ENSO update: Cooling our heels
Quote
Since the demise of the big 2015-16 El Niño in April, the tropical Pacific has been loitering around in neutral… and now forecasters think it’s likely to stay that way through the winter. For now, we’re taking down the La Niña Watch, since it no longer looks favorable for La Niña conditions to develop within the next six months.

What happened?

Over the last few months, sea surface temperature anomalies (the departure from the long-term average) in the Niño3.4 region have become more negative, which was expected.  Currently, the sea surface temperature in the Nino3.4 region is about -0.5° below the long-term average, according to the ERSSTv4 data. 

This is the La Niña threshold! However, the second step of the La Niña conditions decision process is “do you think the SST will stay below the threshold for the next several overlapping seasons?” For now, the answer to this question is “no.”


In fact, the dynamical climate models are predicting that this month’s Niño3.4 index will be the low point, and sea surface temperatures will recover to near average over the next few months. There is still a range of forecasts, but all eight of the North American Multi-Model Ensemble models expect the negative anomalies to weaken toward zero.
https://www.climate.gov/news-features/blogs/enso/september-2016-enso-update-cooling-our-heels
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AbruptSLR

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Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
« Reply #925 on: September 09, 2016, 04:11:46 AM »
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM; the 30-day moving average SOI ha drifted down to +6.7:
« Last Edit: September 10, 2016, 04:00:54 AM by AbruptSLR »
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
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AbruptSLR

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Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
« Reply #926 on: September 09, 2016, 03:42:29 PM »
NASA on the QBO:

A Strange Thing Happened in the Stratosphere
[

Here is another follow-on article about Newman et al 2016's work on the QBO:

Stanley, S. (2016), Mysterious anomaly interrupts stratospheric wind pattern, Eos, 97, doi:10.1029/2016EO058557.

https://eos.org/research-spotlights/mysterious-anomaly-interrupts-stratospheric-wind-pattern?utm_source=eos&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=EosBuzz090916

Extract: "The weather we experience on Earth typically occurs in the troposphere, the lowest layer of the atmosphere. But the stratosphere, which envelops the planet just above the troposphere, is home to winds of its own. In a new study, Newman et al. report an anomalous interruption in an otherwise reliable stratospheric wind pattern known as the quasi-biennial oscillation.

Each cycle of the quasi-biennial oscillation begins with strong westerly winds that flow through the stratosphere in a belt around the equator. Over the course of about 1 year, these winds gradually weaken and descend in altitude to the lower stratosphere as easterly winds replace them. These easterly winds slowly sink and weaken, too, as westerly winds return. The cycle repeats roughly once every 28 months.

The researchers plan to continue analyzing wind and temperature data to determine what caused this anomaly and what its implications may be. Their investigation will include an exploration of possible connections with the 2015–2016 El Niño and climate change."
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

Sigmetnow

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Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
« Reply #927 on: September 09, 2016, 09:13:23 PM »
All of zero U.S. states were cooler than average this summer.

USA swelters through hottest summer nights in 121 years
Quote
Nights provided no relief from the heat this summer: While days were certainly hot across the USA, it was the endless parade of sultry, swampy nights that set an all-time record.

The summer of 2016 recorded hotter nights than any summer since records began in 1895, according to data released Thursday by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.

The national average low temperature rested at a balmy 60.8 degrees, about 2.4 degrees above average, said climate scientist Jake Crouch of NOAA's National Centers for Environmental Information. Meteorologists define summer as the year's warmest months of June, July and August.

The reason for the nighttime swelter, especially in the East, was unusually high levels of humidity due to a persistent flow of moisture-laden air off the Gulf of Mexico and Atlantic Ocean, Crouch said. Temperatures don't drop as much at night when the atmosphere is humid.

The devastating flooding in West Virginia in June, Ellicott City, Md., in July and Louisiana in August were also related to the flow of warm, humid air, Crouch said.
http://www.usatoday.com/story/weather/2016/09/08/usa-summer-climate-report/89998172/


The State of the Climate Summary Information is a synopsis of the collection of national and global summaries released each month.
National Summary Information - August 2016
http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/summary-info/national/201608
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AbruptSLR

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Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
« Reply #928 on: September 10, 2016, 04:00:18 AM »
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM; the 30-day moving average SOI has drifted down to +6.6:
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

Lord M Vader

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Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
« Reply #929 on: September 10, 2016, 05:43:56 PM »
Strong easterly wind burst in Central Pacific coming up for next week. Dr. Mike Ventrice's hovmoller from U_Albany calls for two weeks with strong easterlies over the area from 150W to the Date Line. See the tweet from Dr. Mike Ventrice: https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/774581178242392064



Interestingly, the cold pool at subsurface have diminished in the Central Pacific and the area with -2oC temps is more or less gone now. OTOH, the cold pool in the far Western Pacific have strengthened during the last week or so. Interestingly, a small "bridge" with marginally warmer water between the cold pool in the east and the one in west has established during the last few days.


AbruptSLR

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Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
« Reply #930 on: September 11, 2016, 03:29:58 AM »
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM; the 30-day moving average SOI has moved up to +7.0:
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
« Reply #931 on: September 12, 2016, 03:24:36 AM »
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM; the 30-day moving average SOI has moved up to +7.5:
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

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Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
« Reply #932 on: September 12, 2016, 08:53:04 AM »
NCEI (based on ERSST) has the PDO at -0.66 for August, that's ending a streak of 23 months with positive values.
Nate Mantua (based on OISST) hasn't updated with the August values yet.

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
« Reply #933 on: September 12, 2016, 05:17:13 PM »

Per the following weekly NOAA Nino data issued today thru the week centered on Sept 7 2016, all Nino values remain unchanged from last week; indicating that the ENSO remains on the cool side of neutral:

                     Nino1+2      Nino3         Nino34        Nino4
 Week           SST SSTA    SST SSTA   SST SSTA    SST SSTA
 27JUL2016     21.3 0.1     24.8-0.6     26.6-0.5     29.0 0.2
 03AUG2016     21.5 0.5     24.7-0.5     26.4-0.5     28.8 0.1
 10AUG2016     21.0 0.1     24.5-0.7     26.3-0.6     28.6-0.1
 17AUG2016     21.1 0.5     24.5-0.5     26.3-0.5     28.7 0.0
 24AUG2016     20.8 0.2     24.4-0.5     26.2-0.6     28.6-0.1
 31AUG2016     20.9 0.3     24.6-0.3     26.0-0.7     28.5-0.1
 07SEP2016     20.8 0.3     24.6-0.3     26.1-0.7     28.6-0.1

The first two images were issued today by the BoM for the week ending Sept 11 2016, for the Nino 3.4 and IOD, respectively (which indicate that the ocean is clearly neutral while the atmosphere has hints of future La Nina tendencies).
The last two images were issued today by NOAA with the third image showing the Eq Pac Upper Ocean Heat Anom (which is becoming less negative), and the fourth image showing that the Eq Pac SSTA Evolution is essentially in a neutral condition.
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
« Reply #934 on: September 12, 2016, 05:19:48 PM »
The four attached images were all issued today by the BoM for the week ending Sept 11 2016, & show the Nino 1, 2, 3 & 4 indices, respectively; all of which indicate cool but neutral ENSO conditions.
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

Lord M Vader

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Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
« Reply #935 on: September 12, 2016, 05:32:03 PM »
ASLR, wrt "hints of future La Niña tendencies", it seems like a really strong Easterly Wind Burst (EWB) has started today around the Date Line and should last for about 5 days or so.

Courtesy: U_Albany.



Best, LMV

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
« Reply #936 on: September 13, 2016, 03:29:25 AM »
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM; the 30-day moving average SOI has moved up to +8.6 (and is now about the +8.0 threshold for the first time since June 2014):
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
« Reply #937 on: September 14, 2016, 03:25:57 AM »
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM; the 30-day moving average SOI has zoomed up to +9.7:
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

budmantis

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Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
« Reply #938 on: September 14, 2016, 07:55:44 AM »
ASLR: The SOI (southern oscillation index?) has gone up rapidly the last couple of days. From my perspective, it seems extreme, but I've only been observing this for a short time.

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
« Reply #939 on: September 15, 2016, 05:06:12 AM »
ASLR: The SOI (southern oscillation index?) has gone up rapidly the last couple of days. From my perspective, it seems extreme, but I've only been observing this for a short time.

The SOI is the most volatile ENSO index because it is associated with the atmosphere (rather than the ocean).  if it stays above 8 for a few months then it means something.  In any case the 30-day moving average SOI has zipped up to +10.8:
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

budmantis

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Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
« Reply #940 on: September 15, 2016, 07:21:37 AM »
Highest since mid-2014.

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
« Reply #941 on: September 15, 2016, 03:00:27 PM »
Highest since mid-2014.

While the atmosphere may be tilting towards cooler conditions at the moment, the attached NOAA plot of the Eq Pac Upper Ocean Heat Anom issued Sept 15 2016; indicates that the ocean is currently leaning towards neutral conditions.
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
« Reply #942 on: September 16, 2016, 03:21:05 AM »
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM; the 30-day moving average SOI has zoomed up to +11.8:
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

Sigmetnow

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Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
« Reply #943 on: September 17, 2016, 12:47:56 PM »
We Don’t Know If It Will Be Sunny Next Month But We Know It’ll Be Hot All Year
By Gavin Schmidt
Quote
To summarize, some key climate statistics are easily predictable far beyond the scales at which weather forecasts are skillful. Those predictions clearly suggest an annual global temperature record in 2016 and a (relative) cooling in 2017, all while the long-term upward trends continue.
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/why-we-dont-know-if-it-will-be-sunny-next-month-but-we-know-itll-be-hot-all-year/
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
« Reply #944 on: September 18, 2016, 03:23:06 AM »
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM; the 30-day moving average SOI has moved up to +12.8:
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

Sigmetnow

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Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
« Reply #945 on: September 18, 2016, 07:28:48 PM »
Quote
@simondonner:  Like any good horror movie, the Blob may have a sequel #climate #oceans
https://twitter.com/simondonner/status/776847157030559744
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
« Reply #946 on: September 19, 2016, 01:23:54 AM »
The linked article is entitled: "Is La Niña Here? Depends Who You Ask":

http://www.climatecentral.org/news/la-nina-forecast-winter-2016-20706

Extract: "According to the Japanese Meteorological Agency (JMA), La Niña has in fact arrived.
The Australian Bureau of Meteorology, another of the big tropical Pacific watchers, still has a La Niña watch in place, but is still waiting for its “official” arrival.
But the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration dropped its La Niña watch last week, indicating that it’s unlikely that a La Niña will form this fall or winter.
All three agencies are looking at the same ocean, but have come to different conclusions about when — or even if — La Niña is going to happen. The main reason comes down to how you define La Niña."
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
« Reply #947 on: September 19, 2016, 03:32:59 AM »
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM; the 30-day moving average SOI has drifted down to +12.6:
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
« Reply #948 on: September 19, 2016, 04:21:39 PM »
The following NOAA ENSO data issued through the week centered on Sept 14 2016, shows cool neutral conditions with the Nino 3.4 increasing slightly from -0.7 last week to -0.6C:


                     Nino1+2      Nino3         Nino34        Nino4
 Week           SST SSTA    SST SSTA   SST SSTA    SST SSTA
 10AUG2016     21.0 0.1     24.5-0.7     26.3-0.6     28.6-0.1
 17AUG2016     21.1 0.5     24.5-0.5     26.3-0.5     28.7 0.0
 24AUG2016     20.8 0.2     24.4-0.5     26.2-0.6     28.6-0.1
 31AUG2016     20.9 0.3     24.6-0.3     26.0-0.7     28.5-0.1
 07SEP2016     20.8 0.3     24.6-0.3     26.1-0.7     28.6-0.1
 14SEP2016     20.6 0.2     24.7-0.2     26.1-0.6     28.5-0.2

The first two plots were issued today by the BoM for the week ending Sept 18 2016, with the first plot showing that the Nino 3.4 drifted down to -0.52C; while the second shows the IOD remained largely unchanged.

The last two plots were issued today by NOAA, with the third showing that the Eq Pac Upper Ocean Heat Anom continues to drift slowly upward, and the fourth showing the Eq Pac SSTA evolution.  All of these plots indicate continuing cool ENSO neutral conditions.
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
« Reply #949 on: September 19, 2016, 04:24:21 PM »
The four attached plots were all issued today by the BoM showing Nino index data thru the week ending Sept 18 2016; showing the Nino 1, 2 3 &4 indices, respectively.  All data indicates continuing cool ENSO neutral conditions:
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson