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Lord M Vader

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Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
« Reply #250 on: February 09, 2016, 09:12:27 PM »
Todays model runs for the MJO continues to be highly splitted. While NOAAs run shows an even more bullish solution than yesterday with a WWB which might go through the roof the ECMWFs runs shows just a weak WWB as MJO moves into phase 6-7.

Interestingly, ECMWFs monthly run shows that the MJO should go into phase 6-7 and possibly also phase 8 AND may stay there for a MONTH(!)

If NOAAs forecast holds we'll most likely see a strong surge in the Nino 3.4 anomaly. If not, maybe La Nina will arrive by summer?  Feels like we are going to a critical period now which should decide the outcome of ENSO state by late summer/early fall.

By the way, everyone living at the US West coast and especially in SoCal should follow this evolution closely! The CFS v2 NOAA forecast also hints a possible evolution of the Pineapple express by late February and first half of March. Well, let's see if this solution actually willevolve!
« Last Edit: February 09, 2016, 09:20:51 PM by Lord M Vader »

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
« Reply #251 on: February 09, 2016, 09:42:26 PM »
The linked reference indicates that the current generation of global climate models do not adequately account for ENSO behavior as compared to the paleo-record (thus indicating that we do not yet adequately understand the physics of this chaotic phenomenon):

J. Emile-Geay, K. M. Cobb, M. Carré, P. Braconnot, J. Leloup, Y. Zhou, S. P. Harrison, T. Corrège, H. V., McGregor, M. Collins, R. Driscoll, M. Elliot, B. Schneider & A. Tudhope (2016), "Links between tropical Pacific seasonal, interannual and orbital variability during the Holocene", Nature Geoscience, Volume: 9, Pages: 168–173, doi:10.1038/ngeo2608

http://www.nature.com/ngeo/journal/v9/n2/full/ngeo2608.html

Abstract: "The El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the leading mode of interannual climate variability. However, it is unclear how ENSO has responded to external forcing, particularly orbitally induced changes in the amplitude of the seasonal cycle during the Holocene. Here we present a reconstruction of seasonal and interannual surface conditions in the tropical Pacific Ocean from a network of high-resolution coral and mollusc records that span discrete intervals of the Holocene. We identify several intervals of reduced variance in the 2 to 7 yr ENSO band that are not in phase with orbital changes in equatorial insolation, with a notable 64% reduction between 5,000 and 3,000 years ago. We compare the reconstructed ENSO variance and seasonal cycle with that simulated by nine climate models that include orbital forcing, and find that the models do not capture the timing or amplitude of ENSO variability, nor the mid-Holocene increase in seasonality seen in the observations; moreover, a simulated inverse relationship between the amplitude of the seasonal cycle and ENSO-related variance in sea surface temperatures is not found in our reconstructions. We conclude that the tropical Pacific climate is highly variable and subject to millennial scale quiescent periods. These periods harbour no simple link to orbital forcing, and are not adequately simulated by the current generation of models."

See also:

https://news.usc.edu/89793/current-climate-models-misrepresent-el-nino/

Extract: "The finding contradicts the top nine climate models in use today, which associate exceptionally hot summers and cold winters with weak El Niños, and vice versa.
“The idea behind this link is based on very well-established physics, so it’s appealing to think that nature works this way. But our analysis shows that it’s not that simple,” said Julien Emile-Geay, lead author of a study contradicting the models and assistant professor of earth sciences at the USC Dornsife College of Letters, Arts and Sciences."
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AbruptSLR

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Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
« Reply #252 on: February 09, 2016, 09:47:39 PM »
Todays model runs for the MJO continues to be highly splitted. While NOAAs run shows an even more bullish solution than yesterday with a WWB which might go through the roof the ECMWFs runs shows just a weak WWB as MJO moves into phase 6-7.

Interestingly, ECMWFs monthly run shows that the MJO should go into phase 6-7 and possibly also phase 8 AND may stay there for a MONTH(!)

If NOAAs forecast holds we'll most likely see a strong surge in the Nino 3.4 anomaly. If not, maybe La Nina will arrive by summer?  Feels like we are going to a critical period now which should decide the outcome of ENSO state by late summer/early fall.

By the way, everyone living at the US West coast and especially in SoCal should follow this evolution closely! The CFS v2 NOAA forecast also hints a possible evolution of the Pineapple express by late February and first half of March. Well, let's see if this solution actually willevolve!

For some reason this morning I forgot to post the two attached MJO forecasts from Feb 9 to 23 2016, for the NCPE and ECMF ensembles, respectively, but they support your post:
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
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AbruptSLR

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Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
« Reply #253 on: February 10, 2016, 02:36:06 AM »
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has remained constant at -12.2:
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
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AbruptSLR

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Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
« Reply #254 on: February 10, 2016, 04:40:07 PM »
The first image shows the GFS Ensemble (NCPB - biases corrected) MJO forecast from Feb 10 to 24 2016, indicating that by Feb 17 the MJO may (or may not) be in position to start reinforcing El Nino conditions (was as at the moment it is suppressing El Nino reinforcement).

The second image shows the U at Albany 5S-5N 850-hPa Wind Anom forecast from Feb 10 to 17, 2016; which supports the idea that by Feb 17 2016, the MJO may well be in position to start reinforcing (instead of suppressing) El Nino conditions.

Edit: The third & fourth images show MJO forecasts from Feb 10 to 24 2016 for the NCPE (uncorrected), and the ECMF (uncorrected) ensembles, respectively.
« Last Edit: February 10, 2016, 04:45:34 PM by AbruptSLR »
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plinius

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Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
« Reply #255 on: February 10, 2016, 06:57:30 PM »
@ASLR: You are muddling _land_ based estimates with the more important ocean balance.

What concerns Nino and Super-Nino frequency in times of climate change. I will believe it, when I see it in the data. With all my awe for modern climate modelling, that is just outside the prediction accuracy.

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
« Reply #256 on: February 10, 2016, 08:30:12 PM »
@ASLR: You are muddling _land_ based estimates with the more important ocean balance.

What concerns Nino and Super-Nino frequency in times of climate change. I will believe it, when I see it in the data. With all my awe for modern climate modelling, that is just outside the prediction accuracy.

No one is perfect; however, I offer the attached images and following linked pdf to indicate that:
1.  The Land CO₂ sink is much more variable than the Ocean CO₂ sink.
2.  The ENSO has a pronounced influence on the Land CO₂ sink particularly with regard to tropical rainforests.
3. Climate change is threatening the carbon cycle in tropical rainforests with a possible tipping point.

http://biogeomod.net/talks/P_Cox_4_10_2011.pdf
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
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Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
« Reply #257 on: February 11, 2016, 03:28:41 PM »
The attached plot issued yesterday by the BoM, indicates that the 30-day moving average SOI has continued moving up to -11.2:
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

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Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
« Reply #258 on: February 11, 2016, 03:48:27 PM »
The first linked article discusses wildfires in the Amazon in 2015, as well as pending legislation that would legalize more deforestation.  While our current El Nino brought the drought & high regional temperatures, most of these fires were ignited by people and this trend is likely to continue.  Furthermore, I note that the wildfire season in Indonesia should start again in March

http://www.theecologist.org/News/news_round_up/2986882/brazil_as_forest_fires_rage_new_laws_will_open_gates_of_hell.html

Extract: "New laws passing through Congress will encourage deforestation by removing safeguards and opening up indigenous territories to mega-projects. Serious drought is already contributing to a big increase in forest fires.
Almost a quarter of a million forest fires were detected in Brazil last year - and the main cause of a huge increase is being attributed to climate change that brought about a year-long drought in much of the country.
Satellite data revealed a 27.5% increase in forest fires in 2015 compared with the previous year.



"This (2015) was a year with less rain, and hotter than the historic average, especially in central Brazil, in the south of the Amazon region and in parts of the Northeast. Some regions registered temperatures 4°C above the average."
These conditions favour the spread of fires, but Dr Setzer emphasises that it was not spontaneous combustion that caused the fires. "It was human activity, whether carelessness or deliberate", he says.

The increase in forest fires contributed to the general 16% increase in deforestation registered in 2015. And these figures present a stark contrast to Brazil's commitment at the COP21 climate change conference in Paris last month to reduce carbon emissions by 43% by 2030.
To achieve this, the government promised it would ensure zero illegal deforestation. Yet a lot of deforestation is technically legal, thanks to changes to the country's Forest Code. Also in jarring contrast to the government's Paris commitment are two bills now under debate in Congress, which, if made law, will greatly increase 'legal' deforestation.
One will overturn the ban on infrastructure projects inside indigenous territories, with a payoff to the communities of 2% of the value of the project. The other will 'streamline' the environmental licensing system for major infrastructure projects, such as roads, mines and dams.
The existing system demands detailed environmental, anthropological and archaeological studies and public hearings before a project is given the go-ahead. Not only will this system be scrapped, it will be replaced with self-licensing by the very companies that plan to build the projects.
Studies show that most deforestation takes place around these big projects, because they open up access to previously inaccessible areas. They also show that indigenous reserves in the Amazon region tend to be far better preserved than surrounding areas.
If Congress approves both these bills, and the president sanctions them, they will actively stimulate deforestation."


See also:
http://www.pri.org/stories/2016-02-10/current-el-ni-o-may-hold-lessons-how-deal-warming-planet

Extract: "“In some sense, what we're seeing around the world right now is an advanced view of the sort of things that we'll see more of in the future — all of the weather systems being somewhat more vigorous than they have been in the past, the risk of both droughts in some regions and flooding in other regions,” says climate scientist Kevin Trenberth of the National Center for Atmospheric Research.
El Niño is essentially a “mini global warming" event, Trenberth explains. It arises from a build-up of heat in the waters of the equatorial Pacific Ocean. The warm ocean waters and higher sea levels begin in the western tropical Pacific and then spread to the central and eastern Pacific. The warm tropical ocean releases additional water vapor into the atmosphere through evaporation.
When warm air rises from the oceans to higher levels of the atmosphere, the moisture in the air “rains out,” in a process called “latent heating of condensation.” As that moisture gets released, it leads to additional warming of the air and invigorates weather systems around the world, especially in the eastern Pacific. What’s more, changes in ocean temperature become amplified over dry land, according to one study."

http://www.pri.org/stories/2016-02-10/current-el-ni-o-may-hold-lessons-how-deal-warming-planet

Caption for image: "The atmospheric temperature above land and ocean in the tropics (relative to changes in ocean temperature). The pressure on the y-axis indicates the altitude; 1000hPa is the surface and 200hPa is 10-15km high"
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
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AbruptSLR

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Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
« Reply #259 on: February 11, 2016, 05:11:38 PM »
The first two images show the MJO forecasts from Feb 11 to 25 2016 for the NCPB (GFS) and the ECMF, respectively.  They both show the active phase of the MJO is now on the move eastward towards the International Dateline.

The third image shows the U at Albany 5S-5N 850-hPa Wind Anom, which confirms that the MJO may likely start to generate moderate WWB conditions beginning on Feb 17 2016.


Edit: For comparison, I provide the fourth attached image of the NCPE (uncorrected) MJO forecast from Feb 11 to 25 2016; which is the most bullish of all the forecasts.
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
« Reply #260 on: February 11, 2016, 06:32:12 PM »
That's a timely headline ... and about time. At least the excuse list hasn't dried up yet:

-- El Nino is having the predicted effects, only these big ones don't.

-- El Nino will indeed have the predicted effects, when it winds down in April.

-- It's been influencing the atmosphere exactly the same way we've seen previously, only not.

-- Jet stream has hardly budged, though 2000 km off is enough to ruin our predictions.

-- This El Nino is not too big to fail, it's too big to succeed.

Robert Scribbler provides support for your concerns that Arctic Amplification is beating the pants off a Super El Nino w.r.t. providing rainfall to the US Southwest.

http://robertscribbler.com/2016/02/10/even-a-monster-el-nino-cant-beat-the-southwest-drought/

Extract: "Quite frankly, it’s insane that we’re still seeing these conditions during a monster El Nino. These droughts should be rolling back as the storm track intensifies and hurls severe weather at the US West Coast. But that’s not what’s happening. At least not consistently. Instead, we keep getting these extreme ridge patterns in the Jet Stream over western North America. We keep getting these very warm, very dry spells of weather during the wet season. And now, we have California Snowpack melting away in February of all times.

The fact that these weather patterns emerged after the warmest January and lowest sea ice extents on record for the Arctic is a point that should not be missed by weather and climate analysts. It appears that what we are seeing is yet more evidence that polar amplification is driving a consistent high amplitude bulge in the Jet Stream over Western North America together with severe periods of warmth, dryness and snowpack melt during Winter. The hot side of a dipole pattern that is also setting up more extreme storm potentials as cold air is driven out of the Arctic along a deep trough over the Eastern US, slams into a record hot Gulf Stream, and then sets off a series of atmospheric bombs along a storm track running all the way across the North Atlantic and into Western Europe. Yet more evidence that what happens in the Arctic doesn’t stay in the Arctic."
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
« Reply #261 on: February 12, 2016, 03:31:33 AM »
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has continued moving up to -10.2:
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
« Reply #262 on: February 12, 2016, 04:59:38 PM »
The first image shows the U at Albany 5S-5N 850-hPa Wind Anom forecast from Feb 12 to 19 2016, showing that the forecast WWB is both sustained and strengthening.

The last three images show the MJO forecasts from Feb 12 to 26 2016, for the NCPE (uncorrected), NCPB (bias corrected), and ECMF (uncorrected), respectively.  All of these forecasts are relatively bullish for atmospheric conditions to reinforcing El Nino conditions after Feb 17 (through at least Feb 26 and well beyond).  Certainly the NOAA forecasts are more bullish than the EC forecast; however, I note that yesterday the NCPE had the most skillful one-day forecast for the MJO today.
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AbruptSLR

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Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
« Reply #263 on: February 12, 2016, 05:32:13 PM »
The linked Robert Scribbler article discusses how El Nino driven drought in Africa is causing both a major tropical wildfire outbreak (see two images) and famine.  Furthermore, I note that typically Indonesia's wildfire season typically re-starts by the end of March:

http://robertscribbler.com/2016/02/11/major-wildfire-outbreak-in-central-and-western-africa-as-drought-hunger-grow-more-widespread/

Extract: "Major Wildfire Outbreak in Central and Western Africa as Drought, Hunger Grow More Widespread

Central Africa is but the most recent region to feel the effects of extreme drought and related risks to food security. For through 2015 and on into early 2016, both drought and hunger grew in scope and intensity across Africa. An impact that is almost certainly related to the combined influences of a near record El Nino and global average temperatures that are now in the range of 1.1 degrees Celsius hotter those seen at the end of the 19th Century."


Caption for second attached image: (Large sections of Africa suffering from severe drought as of February 7th in the Africa Flood and Drought Monitor graphic above. Widespread areas in red show soil moisture levels hitting their lowest possible rating in the monitor over widespread regions during recent days.)
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Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
« Reply #264 on: February 12, 2016, 06:47:48 PM »
The following data indicates that the PDO for January 2016 has increased to +1.53:

YEAR     JAN    FEB    MAR    APR    MAY    JUN    JUL    AUG    SEP    OCT    NOV    DEC
2014    0.30    0.38   0.97    1.13    1.80   0.82    0.70   0.67   1.08   1.49   1.72   2.51
2015    2.45    2.30   2.00    1.44    1.20   1.54    1.84   1.56   1.94   1.47   0.86   1.01
2016   1.53

The first image shows the NOAA Eq Pac. Upper Ocean Heat Anom circa Feb 12 2016, indicating that after a recent decline the values have plateaued again.

The second and third images show the Eq Pac. Subsurface Temp Anoms for, the NOAA Feb 7 2016 model projection, and the TAO Feb 12 2016 observed data, respectively; showing that the recent downwelling phase of the EKW has not yet dissipated.
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
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AbruptSLR

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Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
« Reply #265 on: February 12, 2016, 07:06:56 PM »
I note that the Lenton et al (2008) image in Reply #256 indicates that with continued global warming the Indian Monsoon should experience Chaotic Multistability; while, the linked article indicates that there is currently divided opinions about where a La Nina in the second half of 2016 will restore the Indian monsoon rainfall, or whether warm Indian Ocean temperatures will bring below-average monsoon rainfall.  I note again that a weak El Nino in the second half of 2016 might bring severe drought conditions to Indian this year:

http://www.producer.com/2016/01/could-indias-2016-monsoon-disappoint-again/

Extract: "Conventional wisdom suggests that will lead to plentiful rain during monsoon season and increased pulse crop production for the world’s biggest pulse producer.

However, one weather observer said a warming Indian Ocean could result in the third consecutive year of below-average monsoon rainfall and another year of healthy pulse demand out of India
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Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
« Reply #266 on: February 12, 2016, 08:17:40 PM »
The linked article discusses how it is possible that global warming is increasing the frequency of extreme El Nino events, and indicates that this frequency may have already doubled from once every 20 years to once every 10 years & who knows whether this trend will continue:


http://e360.yale.edu/feature/el_nino_and_climate_change_wild_weather_may_get_wilder/2960/

Extract: "Climatologists are still calculating whether this is the biggest El Niño on record. What they do agree on is that there have now been three “super-El Niños” in the space of just over three decades — in 1982-83, 1997-98, and now 2015-16. This unusual recurrence gives weight to a forecast made by Wenju Cai of Australia’s national science agency, CSIRO, two years ago that headline-grabbing “super El Niños” were in the process of upgrading from once every 20 years to once every ten years.



Cai’s study, using 20 climate models from different research institutions that simulate Pacific Ocean conditions with and without climate change, found that this rhythm of normal El Niño cycles is unlikely to change as the world warms. But most of th e models predict that the chances of routine El Niños turning into extreme events — super El Niños — is growing strongly, with the likelihood of extremes expected to double.

Cai explains why: Big El Niños happen when the warm waters from the western Pacific push most strongly eastward. And climate change is making that easier, because temperatures in the normally cool waters along the western coasts of North and South America are rising faster than those in other parts of the oceans. So the extra heat from the west can spread further, which loads the dice in favor of major El Niño events."
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
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Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
« Reply #267 on: February 13, 2016, 02:46:01 AM »
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has continued moving up to -9.9:
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
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Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
« Reply #268 on: February 13, 2016, 05:07:02 PM »
The first image shows the U at Albany 850-hPa Wind Anom forecast from Feb 13 to 20 2016, showing a much more bullish forecast (for conditions reinforcing El Nino development) than yesterday's forecast.  Showing that the major WWB will start Feb 16 2016 and will strengthen thereafter.

The last three images show the MJO forecasts from Feb 13 to 27 2016 for the NCPE, NCPB, and ECMF, respectively.  These forecasts are all in general more bullish (for supporting El Nino development) than yesterday and on the one-day timeframe indicate that the NCPE has the most skill in this quadrant.
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Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
« Reply #269 on: February 13, 2016, 05:13:57 PM »
The first two images show the Nullschool Earth forecasts for Feb 17 2016 for the 850-hPa Wind & MSLP; and for the 250-hPa Wind & TPW, respectively.  These maps show: a WWB, a SPCZ, a negative SOI, a Walker Cell in an El Nino pattern and rain for California.

The third image shows the U at Albany 5S-5N 200-hPa Wind Anom forecast from Feb 13 to 20 2016, supporting the idea that by the end of the forecast period the Walker Cell will be in an El Nino pattern.

The fourth image shows the corrected CSFv2 Nino 3.4 forecast, both showing the shoulder that I had talked about earlier, and increasing the probability that a weak El Nino may occur in the second half of 2016.
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Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
« Reply #270 on: February 14, 2016, 02:21:08 AM »
Per the following data issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has continued moving up to -9.4:

20160114,20160212,-9.4


Edit: Here is the plot
« Last Edit: February 14, 2016, 02:39:26 AM by AbruptSLR »
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Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
« Reply #271 on: February 14, 2016, 10:25:57 AM »
Per the linked Washington Post article from Feb 10, 2016, Kevin Trenberth says that there has been little cooling of the Western Tropical Pacific during our current Super El Nino; which may help explain (to my way of thinking) why the MJO is forecast to strengthen as it crosses the Western Tropical Pacific on its way to the International Dateline:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/capital-weather-gang/wp/2016/02/10/90-in-february-this-is-not-what-california-was-expecting-from-a-super-el-nino/

Extract: "“This El Niño has been called ‘very strong’ and one of the top-three strongest on record,” said Trenberth. “That is true if one measures it only by the warmth in the eastern tropical Pacific. But most El Niños also feature a cooling in the western tropical Pacific, and that is largely absent this year.”"
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Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
« Reply #272 on: February 14, 2016, 10:33:14 AM »
The attached Nullschool Earth 850-hPa Wind & TPW forecast for Feb 18 2016, shows both strong WWB near the Dateline, and rain in Southern California (apparently due to the forecasted strong MJO in the Western Tropical Pacific at that time).
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Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
« Reply #273 on: February 14, 2016, 05:13:30 PM »
The four attached plot all show the MJO forecasts from Feb 14 to 28 2016, for the NCPE, NCPB (corrected), ECMF and ECMM (corrected), respectively.

Once again the NCPE one-day MJO forecast was the most skillful of those cited yesterday.

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Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
« Reply #274 on: February 14, 2016, 05:19:32 PM »
The two attached plots show the U at Albany Wind Anom forecasts from Feb 14 to 21 2016 for the 850-hPa, and the 200-hPa, cases respectively.

As the University at Albany appears to use Ventrice developed software, apparently with European Centre (ECMF) input, it is not surprising (given my last post) that these forecasts are starting the WWB earlier but with slightly lower intensity than yesterday's forecast.
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Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
« Reply #275 on: February 15, 2016, 03:11:32 AM »
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has remained constant at -9.4:
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Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
« Reply #276 on: February 15, 2016, 03:40:28 AM »
Per the linked Climate Central (The Guardian) article, NOAA & NASA have teamed up to study our current El Nino in more detail than has ever before for major El Nino event:

http://www.climatecentral.org/news/noaa-and-nasa-team-up-investigate-el-nino-20015

Extract: "America’s two leading climate science agencies are conducting an unprecedented survey via land, sea and air to investigate the current El Niño event and better understand its impact on weather systems that have brought both parched and soaking conditions to North America.

The project, which will conclude in March, will deploy resources from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and NASA to analyze one of the strongest El Niños on record. El Niño is a periodic phenomenon in which parts of the eastern Pacific warm, causing a ripple effect for weather around the world.

...

“A field campaign ordinarily takes years to plan and execute. But we recognized what an important opportunity we had and everyone worked hard to pull this mission together.”

NOAA said it was conducting the rapid assessment due to heightened interest over El Niño’s impact upon California, which is in the midst of a historic four-year drought. El Niño brought a slew of rain to California in December and January, prompting warnings to residents not to let their guard down in an unprecedented water conservation push.

...

While California has received some welcome rain, other parts of the US have experienced exceptionally dry and mild conditions. According to NOAA, only 5.7 percent of the Great Lakes’ surface was covered by ice as of Feb. 3, a huge drop on 2015, when 50 percent of the lakes’ surface was frozen.

The impact of El Niño has perhaps been most pernicious in Africa, with Zimbabwe declaring a state of emergency this week over a drought that has ravaged much of the south of the continent. An estimated 26 percent of Zimbabwe’s population, around 2.4 million, are now considered food insecuytre due to dying cattle and failed crops."
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
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Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
« Reply #277 on: February 15, 2016, 09:56:18 AM »
Sou made a nice blog post (which could go in any thread in here), including a nice graph comparing El Nino years with temperature anomalies.
http://blog.hotwhopper.com/2016/02/hottest-january-on-record-with-el-nino.html#more
Graph attached below.

I've been pondering over the SSW we had now. I noticed it on Feb 02 and made a couple of animatons, posted in the refreeze thread.
GFS: http://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,1377.msg69378.html#msg69378
ECMWF: http://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,1377.msg69472.html#msg69472

One would think that this SSW would be larger, considering the present large El Nino. But according to the following link, the larger SSW's might be more connected with weaker El Ninos like in 2009/10.
http://www.ecmwf.int/sites/default/files/elibrary/2012/12119-impact-enso-european-climate.pdf
Quote
5. Atypical events: “noise”, non-stationarity or non-linearity?
The North Atlantic/European region is highly variable from year to year due to fluctuations in the strength of the storm track and the associated NAO pattern which dominates year to year changes (Hurrell 1995). Of course much of this variability is unassociated with ENSO and may simply be unpredictable internal variability. However, during many ENSO events this appears not to be the case. Mathieu and colleagues (2004) showed that North Atlantic anomalies during individual ENSO events appear to be reproducible in ensembles of climate model experiments. On the other hand, they also concluded that this reproducible signal differedbetween different ENSO events.
The reproducible but apparently variable impact of ENSO on the North Atlantic also appears in longer sections of the observational record. For example, the average effect of ENSO in the latter 20 years of the 20th century was quite different to the average signal in the previous 20 years. Given that these signals are reproducible in models the obvious conclusion might be that the signals are real but “non-stationary” and therefore time-varying (Greatbatch et al, 2004).

An alternative idea is that the Atlantic response to ENSO could be non-linear. If El Nino events are segregated into the strongest one third and the weakest two thirds of events then an apparent consistency emerges in the Atlantic response (Toniazzo and Scaife, 2006). Only the moderate to weak events show the canonical negative NAO pattern while the strongest events show a rather different pattern with a barotropic high to the west of Europe. This response has been explained as a tropospheric wave train from the tropical Atlantic which appears to dominate the Atlantic response during the strongest El Niño events (Toniazzo and Scaife 2006). As this was a primarily observational result one might be forgiven for thinking that the apparent non-linearity appears in the observational record due to a random ‘fluke’. However, recent experiments with a climate model in which the amplitude of the El Niño signal in the tropical Pacific was artificially increased were able to reproduce the observed transition between a negative NAO like response and a pattern similar to the observed response strong El Nino events (Bell et al, 2009). This last piece of evidence adds weight to the idea that the observed non-linearity is indeed a real effect. Finally, it appears that the canonical response of the Atlantic to ENSO may continue for many years to come as it has been found to persist even under climate change conditions (Müller and Roeckner, 2006)

Edit, adding the conclusion as well.
Quote
6. Conclusion
Both observational and modelling studies show a consistent Atlantic climate response to ENSO. The canonical response is for a negative winter NAO pattern during El Nino and cold winter anomalies over Northern Europe. The whole depth of the atmosphere is involved in transmitting this signal from the tropical Pacific to the Aleutian region, into the stratosphere and subsequently back down in to the Atlantic basin. Most steps in this pathway are at least partly understood.
A number of other important details have been added to this basic picture. The signal mentioned above is strongest during late Winter. This intraseasonality is reproduced in some GCM studies where it coincides with the descent of a westward wind anomaly through the stratosphere. There is also evidence for non-linearity in the Atlantic response to El Niño, with the few strongest events showing a different (but consistent) pattern which can be attributed to a tropospheric wave train emanating from the tropical Atlantic. La Niña shows roughly opposite signals to El Niño, including the intraseasonality of the signal, although some authors have argued that this signal is less clearly reproduced in numerical models.
Finally it is worth remarking on the practical use of these signals for seasonal forecasting. Quantification of the size of the ENSO signal against the total variability in the Atlantic region shows that ENSO produces a shift in basic climatological parameters such as temperature or rainfall over Europe that is several tens of percent of the magnitude of observed variability (Ineson and Scaife 2009). These teleconnections are therefore an important component for European seasonal prediction, when ENSO is active. A very recent example may be the winter of 2009/10 which contained a moderate El Niño event and a record negative NAO, which may be partly explained by the canonical teleconnetion described in this paper.
« Last Edit: February 15, 2016, 10:01:47 AM by Sleepy »

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
« Reply #278 on: February 15, 2016, 10:51:24 AM »
Sleepy's excellent post on how the ENSO cycle can impact the climate/weather in Europe, made me think that I should provide some information about the impact of the ENSO cycle (including our current Super El Nino) on Australia.  The first linked website (& three associated images) discusses the general trends of impacts of the ENSO on Australia, while the second linked article provides a discussion of the current Super El Nino and its forecasted impact on Australian weather as El Nino conditions degrade.  Much like the US Southwest, Southern Australia has been in drought conditions but the forecast predicts some limited amount of rain relief:

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/updates/articles/a008-el-nino-and-australia.shtml

Caption for first image: "Growing season (April–November) rainfall anomalies for eastern Australian plotted against the SOI averaged for April–November for all years from 1900 to 2013, showing the varied effect of both strong and weak El Niño events on rainfall. El Niño is typically associated with sustained negative SOI values."

Caption for second image: "Australian winter–spring mean maximum temperature deciles averaged for twelve strong El Niño events."

Caption for third image: "Australian mean rainfall deciles during October–December (left) and February–April (right) averaged for twelve strong El Niño events."
Extract: "The date of the monsoon onset in tropical Australia is generally 2–6 weeks later during El Niño years than in La Niña years. This means that rainfall in the northern tropics is typically well-below-average during the early part of the wet season for El Niño years, but close to average during the latter part of the wet season."

See also the following Australian Broadcasting Corporation, ABC, forecast:

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-01-28/el-nino-declines-wetter-cooler-weather/7120288

Extract: "The Bureau of Meteorology is forecasting above average rainfall in for southern Australia in February to April as a strong El Nino declines
But the bureau warns it will not be enough to break the drought.
The latest long-range outlook suggests rainfall is more likely to be above average across much of southern Australia, with the strongest probability in the south-east, while the tropical north is expected to have a drier than average three months.
February will also be cooler than average across much of New South Wales and southern Queensland.
The bureau said while the rainfall forecast would be welcome in dry parts of southern Australia, a significant period of above average rain would be needed to recover from the long-term dry.
Dr Paul Feikema of the Bureau of Meteorolgy said the breakdown of El Nino historically saw good rainfall in some, but not all, areas.
"While each El Nino is unique, during the break down phase we usually expect some wetter than normal conditions in parts of southern Australia."
Dr Feikema said despite some rain in January, short and long-term drought continued in many parts of the country.
"Long-term deficiencies, over three years persist, particularly in Queensland, northern New South Wales and Victoria."
He said lower layer soil moisture remained below average across much of eastern Australia, particularly in areas affected by long-term drought."
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AbruptSLR

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Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
« Reply #279 on: February 15, 2016, 11:31:38 AM »
The two attached images show Nullschool forecasts for the South Pacific showing the 850-hPa Wind & MSLP forecasts for Feb 16, and 19, 2016, respectively.  These images indicate that the forecasted WWB will begin one day earlier than first forecast and will (at least initially) be focused south of the equator due to very strong and stable low pressure system just west of Tahiti (which will soon drive the SOI to become more negative):
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Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
« Reply #280 on: February 15, 2016, 11:49:46 AM »
The first three images were issued today by the BoM for the week ending Feb 14 2016, with the first image showing that the Nino 3.4 index decreased, & the second image shows that the IOD increased (but remained both negative and neutral).  The third image shows that significant cloud cover was in place last week near the Equatorial Dateline.

The fourth image shows the TAO Eq. Pac. Subsurface Temp. Anom. for Feb 14 2016, showing that the recent downwelling phase of the EKW is dissipating rapidly.
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Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
« Reply #281 on: February 15, 2016, 11:52:35 AM »
The four attached plots were all issued today by the BoM for the week ending Feb 14 2016 for the Nino 1, 2, 3 & 4 indices, respectively; all of which decreased last week.
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Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
« Reply #282 on: February 15, 2016, 03:04:05 PM »
Quote
#276 NOAA said it was conducting the rapid assessment due to heightened interest over El Niño’s impact upon California, which is in the midst of a historic four-year drought. El Niño brought a slew of rain to California in December and January, prompting warnings to residents not to let their guard down in an unprecedented water conservation push.
No it didn't. Nothing of the sort happened. Does NOAA not realize that 50 million people are actually living out here?

When December was bone dry, we were told 50 times to wait, El Nino wasn't expected to kick in until January. Stop your car at every dry drainage, there might be a flash flood upstream. Forget about water conservation, your house will wash into the sea.

When January had one Pacific storm train that didn't remotely fit anything previously defined as the "El Nino Pacific storm pattern", we were told 100 times that it was a perfect fit to the "El Nino Pacific storm pattern" but just wait until February, that  is normally the big month.

When February did not provide a drop, we were told 150 times that March or -- because this was a godzilla year -- April would be big.

But, see the cross-post at Arctic Humor #260, now we're being told by Keith Trenberth at NCAR that this was in fact a fairly minor El Nino if the strength is measured the right way (his way, not NOAA's or NASA's) and that the only part that counts for North Pacific tele quit two weeks ago.

Quote
"While this is technically a very strong El Niño, it’s not playing out as expected because tribal members are too focused on temperatures of specific regions, rather than the big picture. This El Niño has been called ‘very strong’ but that is true if one measures it only by the warmth in the eastern tropical Pacific. But most El Niños also feature a cooling in the western tropical Pacific, and that is largely absent this year.”

As a result, Trenberth said, the differences in temperature along the equator are much less than previous super El Niños, and the reversal in the trade winds that blow across the tropics is much weaker than we saw in the winter of 1997-1998, when Southern California saw nearly 14 inches of rain in the month of February alone..In addition, a lot of action is occurring in a very warm tropical Indian Ocean, which is interfering with the Pacific Ocean activity.

“A consequence of this is that the activity in the eastern Pacific has been nowhere near as strong as expected, and in fact it disappeared a couple of weeks ago,” said Trenberth. It’s the eastern Pacific activity that tends to have the most influence on Southern California storm tracks. 12 Feb 16

So naturally no rain should be predicted in February, especially from the safe perspective of a hindcast (Trenberth could see dry weather out to March 1st). We learn his computer model performed brilliantly, though time constraints prevented results from being shared with NOAA, FEMA, NASA, western water managers, agricultural interests, and the public until months after the fact.

Right: computer modeling successfully predicted tele effects of this El Nino on the northern hemisphere. And war is peace, freedom is slavery, ignorance is strength.

If the models are already so great, why do we need to spend further millions on this rushed new airplane survey of NOAA & NASA?

In June 2015, we were told that Miracle May -- that broke 125 year old rain records in Colorado and ended water rationing downstream in Arizona and California -- was exactly the kind of thing to be expected in an El Nino year even though the indices had hardly budged by then and the main event was still 8 months away. I'm not joking, those are the exact words of a climate scientist to Associated Press.

I'm going on the record as predicting -- if we get another Miracle May this year -- it too will be attributed to the current El Nino, even though the supposed tele effects of that have already disappeared. Everything anywhere in and around an El Nino event is attributed to that El Nino, it's that simple. In La Nada years, it's just weather (though patterns can coincidentally be a perfect match to El Nino's!).

There seem to be no agreed-upon rules or criteria for attribution, only endlessly shape-shifting definitions and measures that provide a good temporary fit to recent weather. There are no consequences for pushing complete rubbish out to the press. There seems to be zero accountability or standards within the profession -- a C- grade on a multiple choice test certifies you as meteorologist.

Will some science-hating humanities academic pound on Google Search to ridicule who said what when during the last six shabby months? I think that very likely.

My take overall is that El Nino tele climatology is not outright scientific fraud but is pushing the limits. By any practical measure, it's been harmful, which is worse than useless. People are pretending to have knowledge that they don't. There is pressure to show results after decades of continuing failure. We are still stuck at recording event data and developing backwards-looking indicators that fit it.

Interestingly, D Swain has backed off from the 'ridiculously resilient ridge' as having any predictive value ('resilient means persistent and that can only be determined after the fact') and has (wisely) frozen his California weather blog awaiting a flurry of El Nino scientific papers (excuses) expected in June.

This could just as well go in the humor forum: the endlessly repeated mantra of 1982/83 and 1997/98 bringing above average precip to the Southwest will get dragged down badly this 3rd year but carry on, that can be quietly changed to the one thing you can count on in El Nino years is below average precip without the little people even noticing.

The participants here really need to look at the larger picture -- when one sector of science abuses public credibility, legitimate scientists in other fields get caught up in the downdraft of public contempt. This will very much detract from our ability to communicate the real risks of coming climate change.
« Last Edit: February 15, 2016, 03:32:33 PM by A-Team »

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Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
« Reply #283 on: February 15, 2016, 03:35:06 PM »
Part of the issue is the heavy use of analogs for forecasting and extrapolation on small sample sizes. I've been arguing for some time now that these analogs are becoming a liability for the forecasting community because the "baseline" state is now changing so fast that by the time you have a decent data set of 30-year climate normals the system has already changed enough to basically invalidate most of them. Some still hold -- but finding them and vetting them is difficult. AA is wreaking havoc on the atmospheric pattern in the Northern Hemisphere and has now become powerful enough to start dominating the winter pattern on a virtually year-to-year basis since the big melt-out in 2007.

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Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
« Reply #284 on: February 15, 2016, 04:37:40 PM »
Per the following data, NOAA indicates that for the week centered on Feb 10 2016, the Nino 3.4 index has dropped down to +2.5, that the Nino 4 index remained constant at +1.5, and that both the Nino 1+2 and the Nino 3 indices dropped significantly:

                     Nino1+2      Nino3         Nino34        Nino4
 Week           SST SSTA    SST SSTA   SST SSTA    SST SSTA
 16DEC2015     25.2 2.4     28.0 2.9     29.5 2.9     30.2 1.7
 23DEC2015     25.2 2.1     28.0 2.7     29.3 2.7     30.0 1.6
 30DEC2015     25.2 1.6     28.0 2.6     29.3 2.7     29.9 1.5
 06JAN2016     25.7 1.8     28.1 2.7     29.1 2.6     29.7 1.4
 13JAN2016     25.7 1.4     28.3 2.8     29.2 2.6     29.6 1.3
 20JAN2016     26.0 1.4     28.2 2.5     29.1 2.5     29.6 1.4
 27JAN2016     26.1 1.0     28.2 2.3     29.1 2.5     29.7 1.5
 03FEB2016     26.6 1.2     28.3 2.2     29.3 2.6     29.6 1.5
 10FEB2016     26.5 0.7     28.3 2.0     29.2 2.5     29.6 1.5
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Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
« Reply #285 on: February 15, 2016, 04:50:35 PM »
The first two images were issued today by NOAA showing the Eq Pac Evolutions for the SSTA and the Upper-Ocean Heat Anom, respectively.  These two images support the idea that the current downwelling phase of the current EKW is nearly completed.

The last two images were issued by the U at Albany today for 5S-5N Wind Anoms at 850-hPa and 200-hPa, respectively.  The third image indicates break in the projected WWB by Feb 21, while the fourth image indicates less Walker Cell participation than was originally projected a few days ago.
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Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
« Reply #286 on: February 15, 2016, 04:59:45 PM »
The first two images were issued today by NOAA & show the MJO forecast from Feb 15 to 29 2016 for the NCPE (uncorrected), and the NCPB (bias corrected), respectively.

The third image show the MJO forecast for the same period for European Centre's ECMF forecast.

Again, yesterday's NCPE showed the most skill for a 1-day MJO forecast as the MJO is now just entering the Western Pacific.
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Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
« Reply #287 on: February 15, 2016, 07:57:52 PM »
Part of the issue is the heavy use of analogs for forecasting and extrapolation on small sample sizes. I've been arguing for some time now that these analogs are becoming a liability for the forecasting community because the "baseline" state is now changing so fast that by the time you have a decent data set of 30-year climate normals the system has already changed enough to basically invalidate most of them. Some still hold -- but finding them and vetting them is difficult. AA is wreaking havoc on the atmospheric pattern in the Northern Hemisphere and has now become powerful enough to start dominating the winter pattern on a virtually year-to-year basis since the big melt-out in 2007.

I concur that climate change is coming faster (including AA) than most people are prepared to admit, and this means that most climate change models (I note that of these models ice sheet models are widely acknowledged by experts to be the least accurate) including ENSO models will increasingly struggle to remain accurate.  Furthermore, due to moral hazard all kinds of parties (policymakers, media reporters, politicians, bloggers, etc.) will take advantage of this uncertainty to promote their own personal agendas.  Furthermore, as the linked survey results indicate that even middle and high school science teachers are befuddled about climate change, and scientists are widely acknowledged to poorly communicate their messages, so what chance is there that the general public will understand climate change, let alone a classically chaotic systems like ENSO?  That said, when engaged in battle the best thing to do is to keep your head down and keep fighting:

http://www.modernreaders.com/survey-climate-change-befuddles-most-teachers/40065/melissa-taylor

Extract: "A new survey commissioned by the National Center for Science Education and Penn State University suggests that middle and high school teachers are often confused when it comes to climate change."
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Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
« Reply #288 on: February 16, 2016, 02:42:48 AM »
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has re-continue moving up to -9.0:
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Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
« Reply #289 on: February 16, 2016, 10:11:16 AM »
Here is the Nullschool's forecast for Feb 20 2016, for the Earth 850-hPa Wind & MSLP, indicating that the WWB is slight weaker than the forecast for Feb 19 2016:
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Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
« Reply #290 on: February 16, 2016, 04:27:34 PM »
NASA: The Demise of the Warm Water Blob
Quote
Thanks in part to the strong El Niño in the equatorial Pacific, the Blob has finally broken up. Beginning in November 2015, strong winds blowing south from Alaska began to pick up, and sea surface temperatures in the northeastern Pacific began to cool.
http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/IOTD/view.php?id=87513

Top image is from July 2015; bottom image is from January 2016.
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Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
« Reply #291 on: February 16, 2016, 04:29:18 PM »
Part of the issue is the heavy use of analogs for forecasting and extrapolation on small sample sizes. I've been arguing for some time now that these analogs are becoming a liability for the forecasting community because the "baseline" state is now changing so fast that by the time you have a decent data set of 30-year climate normals the system has already changed enough to basically invalidate most of them. Some still hold -- but finding them and vetting them is difficult. AA is wreaking havoc on the atmospheric pattern in the Northern Hemisphere and has now become powerful enough to start dominating the winter pattern on a virtually year-to-year basis since the big melt-out in 2007.

The linked website indicates that NOAA is the USA's lead agency for model forecasts on the timescales of weeks to years (which includes the ENSO cycle), and one of its priorities is to improve its Climate Forecast System (CFS) version2.  Hopefully, they are receptive to helpful suggestions on how to improve their CFSv2 ENSO forecasts given the non-stationary nature of climate change and the positive feedback that the ENSO will have on future global warming:

http://www.nws.noaa.gov/ost/CTB/ov.htm

Extract: "NOAA/NCEP is the lead agency with responsibility for producing US operational climate monitoring, models and predictions on time scales ranging from weeks to years. The mission of NOAA Climate Test Bed (CTB) is to accelerate research-to-operation (R2O) to improve NCEP operational climate models, monitoring and predictions, and to provide operations-to-research (O2R) support to the climate research community with access to operational models, forecast tools and datasets.

The CTB’s current priorities include i) multi-model ensembles for climate predictions, ii) Climate Forecast System (CFS) improvements, iii) climate forecast tools and products; and iv) climate-quality reanalysis."
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Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
« Reply #292 on: February 16, 2016, 04:46:12 PM »
The first two images show NOAA's MJO forecast from Feb 16 to March 1 2016 for the NCPE (uncorrected) and NCPB (bias corrected) systems.  The NCPB showed the most 1-day skill of all Clivar MJO forecasts from yesterday (see the attached link), and indicates more bullish El Nino supporting conditions today than yesterday.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/CLIVAR/clivar_wh.shtml

The third image shows the U at Albany's 5S-5N 850-hPa Wind Anom forecast from Feb 16 to 23 2016, which is more bullish on the current WWB than its forecast from yesterday.

The European Centre has not yet posted updated MJO forecasts, but I will post the ECMF MJO forecast here when it is available.

Edit: The fourth image shows the ECMF MJO forecast from Feb 16 to March 1 2016
« Last Edit: February 16, 2016, 09:23:25 PM by AbruptSLR »
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
« Reply #293 on: February 17, 2016, 02:44:40 AM »
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has moved down to -9.5:
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

Pmt111500

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Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
« Reply #294 on: February 17, 2016, 03:56:07 AM »
Not that the MJO is the easiest system to predict accurately (in fact it might be one of the hardest of almost regular weather/climate phenomena to predict) I'd like to think the large difference between NCPB and EMFC forecasts would be indicative of something. Maybe this WWB is the last one strong enough to give support to El Nino conditions? Thus Nino would be soon over and the tropical maximum response to it would be in late March -early April once the effect has rounded the globe?

Also, Sleepy has posted images of a potential SSW event, which in it self is interesting. Some scholars are attempting to statistically connect enso and qbo, I thought the strong WWBs assocciated with MJOs during the build up of el ninos would mediate the connection, but one of the scholars said SSWs are more likely the physical link. The trouble with this is, the SSWs do not generally start from the Pacific! I believe there is a connection, but the level of maths involved pass my expertise by a half-a-mile, so it's not likely I can contribute to this effort, that imo could make the ENSO forecasts way more reliable.
« Last Edit: February 17, 2016, 04:29:39 AM by Pmt111500 »

Sleepy

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Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
« Reply #295 on: February 17, 2016, 06:21:10 AM »
Pmt, when I started reading about ENSO a few years back I was quite surprised when I ended up with reading papers fom the sixities about the QBO... Why? It's a large scale clockwork oscillation that's still not well understood. The same goes for the MJO. And ENSO, and it's aftermath. There's a fundamental misunderstanding here somewhere, maybe the coriolis effect? I think we (they) will have to check the cornerstones here. But I'm just a novice reading, trying to understand.

ASLR posted a link to a new paper in the Conservative Scientists & its Consequences thread yesterday.
http://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,1053.msg70113.html#msg70113
If someone has access to that paper I would love to read it.

Here's a paper from 2014.
Northern Hemisphere mid-winter vortex-displacement and vortex-split stratospheric sudden warmings: Influence of the Madden-Julian Oscillation and Quasi-Biennial Oscillation
http://web.gps.caltech.edu/~kfl/paper/Liu2014.pdf
Quoting the abstract:
Quote
We investigate the connection between the equatorial Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) and
different types of the Northern Hemisphere mid-winter major stratospheric sudden warmings (SSWs), i.e., vortex-displacement and vortex-split SSWs. The MJO-SSW relationship for vortex-split SSWs is stronger than that for vortex-displacement SSWs, as a result of the stronger and more coherent eastward propagating MJOs before vortex-split SSWs than those before vortex-displacement SSWs. Composite analysis indicates that both the intensity and propagation features of MJO may influence the MJO-related circulation pattern at high latitudes and the type of SSWs. A pronounced Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO) dependence is found for vortex-displacement and vortex-split SSWs, with vortex-displacement (-split) SSWs occurring preferentially in easterly (westerly) QBO phases. The lagged composites suggest that theMJO-related anomalies in the Arctic are very likely initiated when the MJO-related convection is active over the equatorial Indian Ocean (around the MJO phase 3). Further analysis suggests that the QBO may modulate the MJO-related wave disturbances via its influence on the upper tropospheric subtropical jet. As a result, the MJO-related circulation pattern in the Arctic tends to be wave number-one/wave number-two ~25–30 days following phase 3 (i.e., approximately phases 7–8, when the MJO-related convection is active over the western Pacific) during easterly/westerly QBO phases, which resembles the circulation pattern associated with vortex-displacement/vortex-split SSWs.

And there's a workshop in Helsinki in June.
The Large-Scale Atmospheric Circulation: Confronting Model Biases and Uncovering Mechanisms
http://www.sparcdynvar.org/enso-and-qbo/
Quote
The El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the Madden-Julian Oscillation and the stratospheric Quasi Biennial Oscillation (QBO) are major sources of interannual tropical variability, and are also known to generate teleconnections between the tropics and extratropics. However, their effects in the stratosphere are hard to separate in the analysis of observational data and realistic simulations. Recent papers have shown a non-linear stratospheric response when they combine (e.g. Calvo et al. 2009) and also in some cases, the influence of these stratospheric signals in the troposphere (e.g. Cagnazzo and Manzini 2009). This DynVar Research Topic focuses on characterizing the ENSO and QBO signals and their combined effects in the stratosphere; and also on investigating the possible role of the stratosphere on tropospheric ENSO and QBO teleconnections.
Let's hope some information is published after that one.

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Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
« Reply #296 on: February 17, 2016, 06:38:11 AM »
Have a look at what WebHubbleTelescope has done on QBO and his sloshing model for the El Nino at http://contextearth.com/. The maths is beyond me, but he explains the principles simply enough for me to just about follow.

From one of his recent posts:

"I have been on a path to understand ENSO via its relationship to QBO and the Chandler wobble (along with possible TSI contributions, which is fading) for awhile now. Factors such as QBO and CW have all been considered as possible forcing mechanisms, or at least as correlations, to ENSO in the research literature.

Over time, I got sidetracked into trying to figure out the causes of QBO and the Chandler wobble hoping that it might shed light into how they could be driving ENSO.

But now that we see how the QBO and the Chandler wobble both derive from the seasonally aliased lunar Draconic cycle, it may not take as long to piece the individual bits of evidence together.

I am optimistic based on how simple these precursor models are. As far as both QBO and the Chandler wobble are concerned, one can't ask for a simpler explanation than applying the moon's Draconic orbital cycle as a common forcing mechanism."

Pmt111500

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Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
« Reply #297 on: February 17, 2016, 06:59:11 AM »
Thanks for the link, i'm using the phone so links are pretty hard to add in context... WebHubTel was the scholar in question, a couple of my comments in there (by different nick...)

Pmt111500

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Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
« Reply #298 on: February 17, 2016, 03:32:37 PM »

ASLR posted a link to a new paper in the Conservative Scientists & its Consequences thread yesterday.
http://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,1053.msg70113.html#msg70113
If someone has access to that paper I would love to read it.

Here's a paper from 2014.
Northern Hemisphere mid-winter vortex-displacement and vortex-split stratospheric sudden warmings: Influence of the Madden-Julian Oscillation and Quasi-Biennial Oscillation
http://web.gps.caltech.edu/~kfl/paper/Liu2014.pdf
Quoting the abstract:
Quote
<cut> The lagged composites suggest that theMJO-related anomalies in the Arctic are very likely initiated when the MJO-related convection is active over the equatorial Indian Ocean (around the MJO phase 3). Further analysis suggests that the QBO may modulate the MJO-related wave disturbances via its influence on the upper tropospheric subtropical jet. As a result, the MJO-related circulation pattern in the Arctic tends to be wave number-one/wave number-two ~25–30 days following phase 3 (i.e., approximately phases 7–8, when the MJO-related convection is active over the western Pacific)

And there's a workshop in Helsinki in June.
The Large-Scale Atmospheric Circulation: Confronting Model Biases and Uncovering Mechanisms
http://www.sparcdynvar.org/enso-and-qbo/

That sounds like a plausible mechanism for the observed difference of the periods of qbo and enso WebHubTel talks about in the ''Daily Double' article. Yes, let's hope they'll get this solved, Robert Grumbine has also talked of this in his blog.

That could be a reason to visit Helsinki ;) , thanks for the info.

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
« Reply #299 on: February 17, 2016, 06:49:42 PM »
The first two images show the MJO forecasts from Feb 17 to March 2 2016 for the NCPE and the ECMF, ensembles respectively.  The NCPE's 1-day forecast from yesterday showed the most skill, and today's forecast is more bullish for reinforcing El Nino conditions than yesterday's forecast.

The last to images show the U at Albany 5S-5N Wind Anom forecast from Feb 17 to 24 2016, for the 850-hPa, and the 200-hPa, cases, respectively.  These images taken together indicate that through at least Feb 21 the SPCZ is the dominate cause of the current strong WWB, while by at least Feb 24 the Walker Cell will begin to dominate (in agreement by both the NCPE & the ECMF):
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson