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Steven

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Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
« Reply #550 on: April 18, 2016, 06:23:29 PM »
The BoM updated today their summary of international model outlooks for the Niño 3.4 index:

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/model-summary/#tabs=Pacific-Ocean

May 2016:


July 2016:


September 2016:



Quote
The all-model average NINO3.4 outlook for May is +0.5 °C, which is within neutral bounds (i.e., no longer at El Niño levels). By July, the model average drops to -0.8 °C (La Niña levels), with September the average dropping slightly further to -1.0 °C.

While model skill is generally low at this time of year, particularly for forecasts beyond mid-year, there is a strong model consensus for significantly cooler than average sea surface temperatures in the central tropical Pacific Ocean. Six of eight models indicate La Niña will form. The seventh model briefly falls into La Niña levels during July, but does not exceed La Niña thresholds for long enough to be considered an event.

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Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
« Reply #551 on: April 18, 2016, 06:29:38 PM »
The attached image was taken from the BoM website today and shows that the Eq Dateline cloud cover (OLR) has been and remains cloudy; which, indicates that the Walker Cell could help to slow the rate of decline of our current moderate strength El Nino.

Edit: The second attached image shows the U at Albany 5S-5N 200-hPa Wind Anom forecast from April 18 to 25 2016.  This image confirms that the Walker Cell is contributing to slow the rate of decline of our current moderate strength El Nino.
« Last Edit: April 18, 2016, 06:59:36 PM by AbruptSLR »
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
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Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
« Reply #552 on: April 19, 2016, 03:32:46 AM »
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has moved down to -15.2:
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

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Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
« Reply #553 on: April 19, 2016, 05:08:57 PM »
Per the linked Cyclocane warning there is a high probability of a tropical cyclone in the South Pacific within the next 24 hours (see first attached image issued by Cyclocane on April 19 2016 & the second attached image of the nullschool Earth 850-hPa Wind & MSLP Map for April 19 2016):

http://www.cyclocane.com/tropical-storm-risk/#spac

Extract: "SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 16.1S
176.9E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 14.3S 175.9W, APPROXIMATELY 305 NM WEST
OF PAGO PAGO, AMERICAN SAMOA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC)
WITH LIMITED CENTRAL CONVECTION. A 190251Z SSMI MICROWAVE IMAGE
SHOWS A WELL DEFINED LLCC WITH ASSOCIATED, LIMITED CONVECTION
WRAPPING ALONG THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN PERIPHERIES. A 181800Z
PARTIAL WINDSAT PASS FURTHER SHOWS 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS ALONG THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE LLCC. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES A
MARGINAL, BUT IMPROVING, ENVIRONMENT WITH 10 TO 15 KNOT VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND AN EASTWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL ON THE POLEWARD
SIDE. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS THE DISTURBANCE TRACKING
NORTHWESTWARD INTO A MARGINALLY BETTER VWS ENVIRONMENT WITH
CORRESPONDING SLOW CONSOLIDATION. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES NEAR 30
CELSIUS ARE CONDUCIVE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1002 MB. BASED ON THE CURRENT
STRUCTURE AND IMPROVING ENVIRONMENT, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS REMAINS HIGH. SEE REF A (WTPS21 PGTW 190400) FOR FURTHER
DETAILS."
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
« Reply #554 on: April 19, 2016, 09:24:42 PM »
The linked article puts a human face (from Africa to Asia to South America) on the worldwide suffering caused by our current El Nino.  In the extract, I focus on the recent suffering in India due to El Nino impacts on the Indian Monsoons, as I am concerned that the associated suffering in 2016 in India could be still greater, if a weak El Nino still exists by this coming early boreal summer:


http://gulfnews.com/culture/environment/el-ni-o-upsets-seasons-and-upends-lives-globally-1.1710558

Extract: "A Blow to India’s Monsoons
For the first time in his life, Jeevan Lal Yadav from Mahoba district has been getting his wheat and vegetables from the market 8 kilometres away, rather than from his own farm.
Yadav, 43, has not been able to grow anything this past year on the two hectares he cultivates here in the heart of northern India, parts of which are experiencing a severe drought.
He is one of millions struggling after a strong El Niño led to reduced rain from the southwest monsoons.
Rainfall in 2015 from monsoons, which sweep over most of India from June to September, was 14 per cent below the average. The reduction was more than 40 per cent in some areas, including India’s most populous state, Uttar Pradesh, where Yadav lives.
Because most Indians are farmers, and a majority rely entirely on the monsoon rains, a blow to the rainy season is devastating, rendering lives barely recognisable."
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
« Reply #555 on: April 20, 2016, 03:31:11 AM »
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has continued dropping down to -16.4:
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

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Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
« Reply #556 on: April 20, 2016, 07:01:44 AM »
The linked reference uses the CESM to study the differences & similarities between El Ninos and global warming induced El Nino-like SST patterns in the tropical Pacific Ocean.  Among numerous other finding, the study confirms that continued global warming will increase the frequency of intense El Nino events:

Fukai Liu, Yiyong Luo, Jian Lu & Xiuquan Wan (15 April 2016), "Response of the tropical Pacific Ocean to El Niño versus global warming", Climate Dynamics, pp 1-22, DOI 10.1007/s00382-016-3119-2



http://link.springer.com/article/10.1007%2Fs00382-016-3119-2


Abstract: "Climate models project an El Niño-like SST response in the tropical Pacific Ocean to global warming (GW). By employing the Community Earth System Model and applying an overriding technique to its ocean component, Parallel Ocean Program version 2, this study investigates the similarity and difference of formation mechanism for the changes in the tropical Pacific Ocean under El Niño and GW. Results show that, despite sharing some similarities between the two scenarios, there are many significant distinctions between GW and El Niño: (1) the phase locking of the seasonal cycle reduction is more notable under GW compared with El Niño, implying more extreme El Niño events in the future; (2) in contrast to the penetration of the equatorial subsurface temperature anomaly that appears to propagate in the form of an oceanic equatorial upwelling Kelvin wave during El Niño, the GW-induced subsurface temperature anomaly manifest in the form of off-equatorial upwelling Rossby waves; (3) while significant across-equator northward heat transport (NHT) is induced by the wind stress anomalies associated with El Niño, little NHT is found at the equator due to a symmetric change in the shallow meridional overturning circulation that appears to be weakened in both North and South Pacific under GW; and (4) heat budget analysis shows that the maintaining mechanisms for the eastern equatorial Pacific warming are also substantially different."
Thanks ASLR.
The submitted print version can be found here:
http://wxmaps.org/jianlu/Liu_Luo_Lu.CLDY15.submitted.pdf
Quoting the first part of the summary:
Quote
6. Summary and discussion
There is increasing evidence that climate models tend to produce an El Niño-like sea surface response in the tropical Pacific under the forcing of increasing concentration of greenhouse gases. However, through a GW-El Niño inter-comparison analysis, we find that many of the GW response features in the ocean as well as the related maintaining mechanisms turn out to be quite different from a typical El Niño. As summarized in Fig. 14, the major similarities and differences for the annual mean response are:

1. Both El Niño- and GW-induced patterns are featured with weakened equatorial trade winds. In response to the slowdown of the trade winds, there appears to be weakening in zonal SEC and meridional STC, enhancements in surface warming over the EEP and shoaling of thermoclines in the WEP.
2. Associated with the eastward shift of the weakened easterlies, the surface-warming center moves eastward and the weakening of the SEC are more significant in the EEP under GW in contrast to El Niño.
3. Over the EEP region, GW induces greater warming in the surface than subsurface while it is the other way around during El Niño. Taken together, GW-induced response is characteristic more of an enhanced stratification in the upper ocean than a shallower thermocline, whereas El Niño corresponds to a weaker upper ocean stratification and a deeper thermocline.

Also attaching fig. 14 where the first picture depicts the changes for El Nino and the second, Global Warming.

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
« Reply #557 on: April 20, 2016, 05:57:00 PM »
The first image shows the U at Albany 5S-5N 850-hPa Wind Anom forecast from April 20 to 27 2016, showing a slightly more intense WWB than yesterday's forecast.

The second image shows the nullschool Earth 850-hPa Wind & MSLP forecast for April 22 2016 (the peak of the WWB).

The third image & the following extract are from Cyclocane's 48-hr forecast for the South Pacific, showing TC-20P and a nearby tropical disturbance:

Extract: "SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 200000Z, TROPICAL CYCLONE 20P (TWENTY) WAS LOCATED NEAR
13.1S 178.2W, APPROXIMATELY 316 NM WEST OF AVATA SAMOA, AND HAD
TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 30 KNOTS GUSTING
TO 40 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTPS31 PGTW 200300) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 15.0S 159.2W,
APPROXIMATELY 435 NM WEST OF BORA BORA. RECENT ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CONVECTION FLARING ALONG THE
SOUTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEVELOPING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC). THE CIRCULATION LIES IN AN AREA OF LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR (15-20 KNOTS) AND STRONG POLEWARD AND EASTWARD OUTFLOW
ALOFT. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE CONDUCIVE FOR FURTHER
DEVELOPMENT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO
30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1003
MB. BECAUSE THE LLCC IS JUST BEGINNING TO DEVELOP AND THE VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR PATTERN IS LESS THAN OPTIMAL, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS LOW."
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
« Reply #558 on: April 21, 2016, 03:32:57 AM »
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has continued dropping down to -17.0:
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

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Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
« Reply #559 on: April 21, 2016, 06:22:40 AM »
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/energy-environment/wp/2016/04/20/and-then-we-wept-scientists-say-93-percent-of-the-great-barrier-reef-now-bleached/

"This is, by far, the worst bleaching they’ve seen on the Great Barrier Reef."

I remember visiting the great barrier reef and scuba diving through its corals about 10 years ago. The threat of bleaching was discussed at an exhibit at the Townsville Aquarium, with samples of corals withering and dying for us tourists to gawk at. Back then, they weren't really talking about climate change. I was hearing more talk about pollution and fertilizer runoff and pesky tourists dumping who knows what overboard. They were so strict that if you dropped anything off the boat they made you eat a spoonful of vegemite as punishment.

It's clear now that heat both from el nino and global warming seems to play the biggest role in bleaching, and the reef might recover somewhat until the next heatwave, and then who knows. I have to wonder if I'll be among the last generation to have seen a living reef.

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Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
« Reply #560 on: April 21, 2016, 04:44:02 PM »
As our current El Nino lingers, the current heatwave/drought cited in the linked article could get worse by early summer:

http://www.theguardian.com/sustainable-business/2016/apr/21/india-drought-flooding-natural-disasters-risk-population-economy-insurance

Extract: "High temperatures and a crippling shortage of rainfall in India is forcing schools to close and communities to ration drinking water."
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
« Reply #561 on: April 21, 2016, 05:49:38 PM »
The first image show the U at Albany 5S-5N 850-hPa Wind Anom forecast April 21 to 28 2016 indicating that the forecast WWB is stronger than previously forecast.

The second & third images show the nullschool Earth 850-hPa Wind & MSLP maps for April 21 and 22 2016, respectively; & both show how strong the current WWB is.

The last image shows the TAO Eq Pac Subsurface Temp Anom issued April 21 2016, showing (together with the information about the WWB) that the relatively warm surface layer in the Nino 3 and 3.4 regions are not going to dissipate quickly.
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
« Reply #562 on: April 22, 2016, 03:39:16 AM »
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM; the 30-day moving average SOI has plunged down to -18.2:
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

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Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
« Reply #563 on: April 23, 2016, 03:25:14 AM »
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average has continued plunging down to -19.6:
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

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Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
« Reply #564 on: April 23, 2016, 08:00:02 PM »
The linked article provides some evidence that the monsoons in India are already weak, and if I am right that the current El Nino may likely degrade relatively slowly, then the cited suffering of 330 million Indians could well become much worse:

http://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/apr/20/india-drought-affecting-330-million-people-weak-monsoons

Extract: "About 330 million people are affected by drought in India, the government has said, as the country reels from severe water shortages and desperately poor farmers suffer crop losses.

A senior government lawyer, PS Narasimha, told the supreme court that a quarter of the country’s population, spread across 10 states, had been hit by drought after two consecutive years of weak monsoons."
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

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Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
« Reply #565 on: April 24, 2016, 03:22:40 AM »
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has dropped down to -20.2:
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

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Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
« Reply #566 on: April 25, 2016, 03:37:55 AM »
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has drifted up to -20.1:
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

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Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
« Reply #567 on: April 25, 2016, 04:54:19 PM »
The following NOAA weekly Nino indices information indicates that all indices are down except the Nino 4 index that remained constant at 0.8, while the Nino 3.4 is at 1.1C for the week centered on April 20 2016:

                     Nino1+2      Nino3         Nino34        Nino4
 Week           SST SSTA    SST SSTA   SST SSTA    SST SSTA
 09MAR2016     27.7 1.2     28.6 1.6     28.9 1.8     29.6 1.5
 16MAR2016     27.5 1.0     28.8 1.7     28.9 1.7     29.6 1.4
 23MAR2016     27.2 0.9     28.6 1.4     28.8 1.5     29.5 1.2
 30MAR2016     27.5 1.5     28.9 1.6     29.0 1.5     29.5 1.1
 06APR2016     27.1 1.3     28.8 1.4     28.9 1.3     29.3 0.9
 13APR2016     25.6 0.1     28.6 1.2     29.1 1.3     29.3 0.8
 20APR2016     24.7-0.6     28.0 0.6     28.9 1.1     29.4 0.8

The first & second images were issued today by the BoM for the week ending April 24 2016, indicating that the Nino 3.4 index is down to +1.05C while the IOD remains neutral.

The third and fourth images were issued today by NOAA showing the Eq Pac Evolution for SSTA and the Upper Ocean Heat Anom, respectively, both indicating that the current EKW may be bottoming-out:
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

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Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
« Reply #568 on: April 25, 2016, 04:58:30 PM »
The four attached images were all issued today by the BoM for the week ending April 24 2016, showing the Nino 1, 2, 3 and 4 indices, respectively.  Note that the Nino 4 index is up to +0.88C(while all the others are down):
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

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Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
« Reply #569 on: April 25, 2016, 05:15:24 PM »
The first image shows NOAA Eq Pac Upper Ocean Heat Anom issued April 25 2016 supporting the idea that the current EKW may have reached a trough.

The second image show the TAO Subsurface Temp Profile & Temp Anom issued April 25 2016, showing that in the Nino 3, 3.4 & 4 regions that the thin warm surface layer has been stabilized by recent WWB activity.

The third image show the U at Albany 5S-5N 850-hPa Wind anom forecast from April 25 to May 2 2016, showing a hint of possible WWB activity at the end of the forecast period.

The fourth image shows the nullschool Earth Current & SSTA Map for April 23 2016, showing that the SSTA in the Eastern Tropical Pacific has turned mostly negative while the Western Tropical Pacific remains mostly positive.
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

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Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
« Reply #570 on: April 26, 2016, 03:36:04 AM »
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM; the 30-day moving average SOI has drifted up to -20.0:
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

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Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
« Reply #571 on: April 27, 2016, 05:31:39 AM »
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has dropped down to -20.7:
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

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Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
« Reply #572 on: April 27, 2016, 07:12:41 AM »
Hmm, we should be seeing a rapid shift in the SOI values by now, but we're not. Looking at the latest 90-day values at longpaddock (april 20&21) they actually dropped slightly. There's still some time for a rapid shift in the coming weeks.

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Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
« Reply #573 on: April 27, 2016, 11:14:39 AM »
I don't know whether it is part of the aftermath of the Super El Nino, but South Asia is going through one Hell of a heat wave right now:



And it's still only April!

http://www.voanews.com/content/punishing-heat-wave-sets-records-across-asia/3304515.html

Nearly 200 already dead, just in India. Last year's heatwave killed over 2000 in India. How many will die from this across South Asia this year?

If anyone has info on wet bulb temps in any of these areas, please pass that data along.
"A force de chercher de bonnes raisons, on en trouve; on les dit; et après on y tient, non pas tant parce qu'elles sont bonnes que pour ne pas se démentir." Choderlos de Laclos "You struggle to come up with some valid reasons, then cling to them, not because they're good, but just to not back down."

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Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
« Reply #574 on: April 27, 2016, 06:24:48 PM »
I don't know whether it is part of the aftermath of the Super El Nino, but South Asia is going through one Hell of a heat wave right now:

And it's still only April!

Nearly 200 already dead, just in India. Last year's heatwave killed over 2000 in India. How many will die from this across South Asia this year?

If anyone has info on wet bulb temps in any of these areas, please pass that data along.

The drought in India is intensifying and drought-migrants are moving to cities to access water:

http://www.theguardian.com/global-development/2016/apr/27/india-drought-migrants-head-to-cities-in-desperate-search-for-water

Extract: "India's drought migrants head to cities in desperate search for water
Parts of India are being parched by a drought that means farmers are unable to irrigate their fields, with some areas even running out of drinking water"
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

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Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
« Reply #575 on: April 27, 2016, 06:33:56 PM »
Latest analysis from NOAA per April 23 shows that the area with cold water have continued eastward and with a small area where the anomalies now are 5o below normal around 110W. See attached pic no 1.

The latest analysis per April 26 from another TAO/TRITON (NOAA) source reveals the same picture but also that the SSTAs are slowy increasing in the far Western Pacific. See second attached pic.

At this point, given the cold pool, I don't see how we are going to dodge a transition to a La Niña or cold neutral conditions.


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Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
« Reply #576 on: April 28, 2016, 03:28:48 AM »
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM; the 30-day moving average SOI has continued dropping down to -21.4:
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

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Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
« Reply #577 on: April 28, 2016, 09:35:53 AM »
Longpaddock has now updated their SOI values to the 26:th and their 90-day average continued to drop as well, to -13.85.

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Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
« Reply #578 on: April 28, 2016, 04:55:29 PM »
In the linked article Robert Scribbler discusses how this year over half a billion people worldwide face suffering from water and food shortages due to a combination of global warming and the residual effects of our degrading Super El Nino:

https://robertscribbler.com/2016/04/27/climate-change-drives-half-a-billion-people-to-suffer-hunger-water-shortages-as-droughts-and-heatwaves-wreck-crops-across-the-globe/


Extract: "Climate Change Drives Half a Billion People to Suffer Hunger, Water Shortages as Droughts and Heatwaves Wreck Crops Across the Globe
At least 12 Indian states are believed to be facing famine and experts have warned that the water crisis could worsen if urgent action is not taken.

El Nino has caused that heat to build up over the Equatorial and near-Equatorial regions of the world. Serving as a kind of human-forced warming amplifier for drought, heat, and water stress in these regions.
For the Summer of 2016, following one of the strongest El Ninos on record and entering a period when the world has never experienced such amazingly high global temperatures, the level of disruption is likely to be extraordinarily severe. Record heat will pull more moisture from soils and rivers than ever before, will take down the mountain snows that still exist faster than ever before, will dwindle the remaining glaciers to the lowest levels yet seen. In addition, consistent warm air invasions into the Arctic will tend to create high amplitude waves in the Jet Stream — setting up zones where droughts and heatwaves are further enhanced. So the crisis period for the Summer of 2016 has just begun."
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
« Reply #579 on: April 28, 2016, 05:07:09 PM »
The first image shows the U at Albany 5S-5N Eq Pac 850-hPa Wind Anom forecast from April 28 to May 5 2016, showing some limited but strategically (for sustaining the thin warm surface layer in the Nino 3, 3.4 and 4 regions) timed/positioned WWB activity.

The second image shows the TAO Eq Pac Subsurface Temp Anom profile issued April 28 2016, showing that indeed the thin warm surface layer remains stable in the Nino 3, 3.4 and 4 regions.
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

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Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
« Reply #580 on: April 29, 2016, 03:41:43 AM »
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has remained constant at -21.4:
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

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Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
« Reply #581 on: April 29, 2016, 07:50:25 PM »
The first image shows the U at Albany 5S-5N Eq Pac 850-hPa Wind Anom forecast from April 29 to May 6 2016, showing some limited but strategically (for sustaining the thin warm surface layer in the Nino 3, 3.4 and 4 regions) timed/positioned WWB activity.

The second image shows the TAO Eq Pac Subsurface Temp Anom profile issued April 29 2016, showing that indeed the thin warm surface layer remains stable in the Nino 3, 3.4 and 4 regions.

The third image shows NOAA's Eq Pac Subsurface Temp Anom profile for April 23 2016, which largely support the TAO observations.
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

Sigmetnow

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Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
« Reply #582 on: April 30, 2016, 01:13:42 AM »
El Niño and the stratospheric polar vortex

"El Niño, with its modified planetary waves, tends to promote the breakdown of the polar vortex"
Quote
ENSO influences climate all over the world by generating planetary-scale “wave trains” that shift the jet stream and associated weather patterns.  During El Niño winters, these wave trains may occur more often in an ideal location to strengthen into the stratosphere, causing a weaker stratospheric polar vortex in late winter and more frequent major disruptions of the polar vortex....

https://www.climate.gov/news-features/blogs/enso/el-ni%C3%B1o-and-stratospheric-polar-vortex
« Last Edit: April 30, 2016, 01:28:23 AM by Sigmetnow »
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Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
« Reply #583 on: April 30, 2016, 03:38:38 AM »
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM; the 30-day moving average SOI has drifted up to -21.3:
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

Lord M Vader

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Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
« Reply #584 on: April 30, 2016, 05:35:10 PM »
According to Tropical Tidbits, CDAS Niño 3.4-index dropped below +1,0 and is now at +0,972. This means that our El Niño have dropped to the weak range. In addtion, the Niño 1+2-area have warmed anomalously much the last couple of days and is now at +0,351 above normal.

If the Indian Ocean continues to warm, Tropical Tidbits will soon have to extend their upper limit to 33oC.

According to Mike Ventrices figure, moderate westerly anomalies will emerge now in the far Eastern Pacific.

//LMV

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Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
« Reply #585 on: May 01, 2016, 03:26:49 AM »
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM; the 30-day moving average SOI has drifted up to -21.2:
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

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Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
« Reply #586 on: May 01, 2016, 11:03:16 AM »
Compared to the April 25 2016 image shown in Reply #569, the attached nullschool Earth Ocean Current & SSTA map for April 29 2016, indicates that the cool surface regions of the Eastern Equatorial Pacific are beginning to decrease in extent (possibly due to recent WWB activity).  Also, I note that this image indicates that the PDO value for April will likely remain positive.
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

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Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
« Reply #587 on: May 01, 2016, 05:24:18 PM »
With our current El Nino heading into the weak range, this could intensify the drought in India that is already severe:

http://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2016/04/30/asia-pacific/parts-india-ban-daytime-cooking-hundreds-die-heat-fire/#.VyYca02UOP9

Extract: "With sizzling temperatures claiming more than 300 lives in India in April, officials said they were banning daytime cooking in some parts of the drought-stricken country in a bid to prevent accidental fires that have killed nearly 80 more people."
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

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Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
« Reply #588 on: May 02, 2016, 12:20:32 AM »
Current 30 day forecast shows the atmosphere switching into a cool ENSO pattern in about two weeks time.  Trade winds are shown returning to normal through the Pacific, with weak easterly anomalies over the Australian region which represents a significant westward extension of trade wind activities and a transfer of enhanced convection out of the central and eastern Pacific and into the Australian and east Indian ocean region.  The forecast is still chopping and changing a bit, but there seems some consistency to the theme of an end to westerly anomalies within the forecast period.

Climate change:  Prepare for the worst, hope for the best, expect the middle.

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Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
« Reply #589 on: May 02, 2016, 03:16:29 AM »
The two linked articles discuss why the spring "predictability barrier" for ENSO events represent such a challenge due to the complexity of the atmospheric-ocean system including: (a) the influence of salt in the ocean; (b) initialization challenges and (c) the physical size of the phenomena.  Therefore, most forecasts emphasizing the 50%-50% chance of a La Nina this year depends heavily on statistics of a relatively small amount of data, rather than on a clear understanding of the physical reality:

https://www2.ucar.edu/atmosnews/opinion/michele-rienecker-nasa


Extract: "Why is it so difficult to represent ENSO in a computer model?
It's very much a coupled phenomenon, with subtle interactions between the atmosphere and ocean that make a difference in how ENSO evolves. You need a very good representation of the atmospheric boundary layer and the ocean surface layer. These are areas where a lot of model improvement is still needed. In the western Pacific, we've tended to just look at the upper-ocean temperature anomalies and how winds can force those anomalies and respond to them. Now we're learning how salt can mediate that exchange. What's called a barrier layer inhibits the mixing deep down to the thermocline in the western Pacific. It's a very complex environment. ENSO is also very large in scale, so it depends on conditions throughout the Pacific, not just westerly wind bursts driving a subsurface anomaly to the east. We've seen cases where conditions in the eastern Pacific can completely suppress a developing El Niño or La Niña.
What's the status of dynamical forecasts of El Niño and La Niña now versus a few years ago?
For the last big El Niño [1997–98], once the warming was underway, model predictions did very well, including predicting the subsequent cooling. After the 1998 La Niña, there was a change in sign of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation [PDO] in 1999, and a lot of the forecasts—including ours—tended to overpredict warming for a few years afterward. In the past we've tended to initialize the atmosphere by itself and the ocean by itself. When you do that, they tend to be slightly inconsistent and have a tendency to produce "shocks"—which can still happen in our model and others. For the next generation of models, our community will pay a lot more attention to coupling in the initialization. We also have a lot more data for initializing the ocean; the Argo floats give us more information on subsurface salinity, for example. One thing we recognize is that ENSO is not a purely cyclic phenomenon—there are differences in each event, which make them more difficult to predict. We're trying to look at larger-scale processes that affect the predictability of the ENSO system, such as the PDO, as well as the impacts of local wind variations.
Why do you think the GMAO model did so well with the onset of the current El Niño?
Our model tends to be sensitive to the subsurface conditions— it likes to generate anomalies—and our thermocline is quite sharp. Starting in January, the subsurface in the western Pacific tended to be warm, and so our model propagated those anomalies to the east and projected a warm event. However, we've only had one very large El Niño since we started doing forecasting in 1993. In terms of building up confidence in our forecasts, that presents a problem.
Can we get past the spring "predictability barrier" for ENSO forecasts?
Once you get through the July time frame, the forecasts tend to do better, but in March-April-May, it's really tough. The westerly wind bursts, which are important when they have a long duration and long fetch, represent a chaotic input that is difficult to predict. So it's tough for prediction models to get things right. We're now realizing that the information we can get in a month's time is quite important. So instead of doing only one forecast a month, groups are starting to do predictions more frequently throughout the month in order to include the high-frequency information from winds across the Pacific."

See also:
https://www.climate.gov/news-features/blogs/enso/march-2016-el-ni%C3%B1o-update-spring-forward

Extract: "Where does the 50% chance of La Niña come from? Forecasters take into consideration what happened in the past, the predictions of computer models, and current conditions when making their forecast.
La Niña conditions have followed six of the ten moderate and strong El Niños since 1950, including two of the three previous strongest El Niños. However, this small number of cases means that it’s hard to make a very confident forecast based only on the previous events."
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

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Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
« Reply #590 on: May 02, 2016, 03:21:46 AM »
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM; the 30-day moving average SOI has dropped down to -22.0:
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

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Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
« Reply #591 on: May 02, 2016, 04:58:40 PM »
Per the following Nino data issued by NOAA thru the week centered on April 27 2016, the Nino 3.4 has dropped down to +0.8C (and thus is weak which puts India's current drought at risk of intensifying); while both the Nino 4 and the Nino 1+ 2 indices increased from last week:

                     Nino1+2      Nino3         Nino34        Nino4
 Week           SST SSTA    SST SSTA   SST SSTA    SST SSTA
 06APR2016     27.1 1.3     28.8 1.4     28.9 1.3     29.3 0.9
 13APR2016     25.6 0.1     28.6 1.2     29.1 1.3     29.3 0.8
 20APR2016     24.7-0.6     28.0 0.6     28.9 1.1     29.4 0.8
 27APR2016     24.7-0.3     27.7 0.4     28.7 0.8     29.5 0.9

The first two attached images were issued today by the BoM; for the week ending May 1 2016, indicating that the Nino 3.4 dropped down to +0.81C and that the IOD is now positive but neutral.

The last two images were issued today by NOAA & show the Eq Pac. Evolutions for the: Upper Ocean Heat Anom, and SSTA, respectively; indicating that the thin warm surface layer of water is still intact near the Nino 3.4 & 4 regions.
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

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Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
« Reply #592 on: May 02, 2016, 05:02:04 PM »
The four attached images were issued today by the BoM thru the week ending May 1 2016, showing the Nino 1, 2, 3 & 4 indices, respectively; confirming that the Nino 4 increased while the Eastern Equatorial Pacific continues to cool.
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
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Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
« Reply #593 on: May 02, 2016, 05:12:25 PM »
The first two attached images were issued today by NOAA with the first showing that the Eq Pac Upper Ocean Heat Anom may have plateaued; while the second attached image shows the Eq Pac Subsurface Temp Anom model projection for April 28 2016 indicating that the Eastern Eq. Pacific water is cool.

The third image shows the TAO Eq Pac Subsurface Temp Anom issued May 2 2016, indicating a small zone of warm surface water in the Eastern Eq Pacific.

The fourth image shows the U at Albany 5S-5N 850-hPa Wind Anom forecast for May 2 to 9 2016, confirming that there is currently a weak WWB near 100W; which might (or might not) continue to advect some warm surface water from the Western to the Eastern Eq Pacific.
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

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Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
« Reply #594 on: May 02, 2016, 06:15:08 PM »
The linked article indicates that the drought in India has intensified to the point that the government must use armed guards to protect reservoirs:

http://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/may/02/armed-guards-at-indias-dams-as-drought-grips-country

Extract: "Desperate farmers from a neighbouring state regularly attempt to steal water from the Barighat dam, forcing authorities in central Madhya Pradesh to protect it with armed guards to ensure supplies.
India is officially in the grip of its worst water crisis in years, with the government saying that about 330 million people, or a quarter of the population, are suffering from drought after the last two monsoons failed.
“Water is more precious than gold in this area,” Purshotam Sirohi, who was hired by the local municipality to protect the dam, in Tikamgarh district, told AFP.
“We are protecting the dam round the clock.”"
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

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Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
« Reply #595 on: May 03, 2016, 03:32:09 AM »
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM; the 30-day moving average SOI has moved up to -21.0
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Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
« Reply #596 on: May 04, 2016, 03:25:28 AM »
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM; the 30-day moving average SOI has drifted up to -20.7:
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

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Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
« Reply #597 on: May 05, 2016, 03:24:16 AM »
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM; the 30-day moving average SOI has moved up to -19.7:
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

Lord M Vader

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Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
« Reply #598 on: May 05, 2016, 11:05:59 PM »
If the upcoming forecast for MJO verifies, we should see destructive interference for El Nino by mid May as strong easterlies will encompass the whole Pacific. This should be a big threat to the warm layer in Nino 4 area. Moreover, ifverified it should clearly increase the odds for a transition to La Nina.

Cortesy NOAA.


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Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
« Reply #599 on: May 06, 2016, 02:33:47 AM »
If that verifies it will totally smash the warm water along the equatorial warm pool.

All models are showing a transition to cool ENSO conditions in the next few months, although the models are not clear on whether the cooling will be strong enough to qualify as a La Nina.  Only ECMWF allows the possibility of a rebound back to warmer than average conditions later this year, although it is one of the best models.  In nearly all historical instances of a strong el nino switching to cool ENSO conditions cool ENSO conditions have lasted at least 2 years.

The CFS 30 day forecast has been fairly consistent in forecasting an end to suppression of the trade winds by next week for a while now.  With significant subsurface cool anomalies even normal trade winds should be enough for these cooler subsurface waters to displace the thin layer of warm water above.
Climate change:  Prepare for the worst, hope for the best, expect the middle.