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AbruptSLR

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Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
« Reply #800 on: July 09, 2016, 03:34:05 AM »
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM; the 30-day moving average SOI has plunged down to +5.2:
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
« Reply #801 on: July 10, 2016, 03:26:18 AM »
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM; the 30-day moving average SOI has moved down to +4.4:
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
« Reply #802 on: July 11, 2016, 03:35:54 AM »
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM; the 30-day moving average SOI has drifted up to +4.5:
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

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Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
« Reply #803 on: July 11, 2016, 06:25:56 AM »
Nino4 going up again according to CDAS by Levi Cowan, Nino3 down. Subsurface cold pool diminishing according to TAO/TRITON.
70&10mb winds almost a carbon copy of 2015 when viewed through earth.nullschool.net.
Quite different Nino34 plumes from ECMWF compared to June.

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
« Reply #804 on: July 11, 2016, 06:42:45 PM »
Per the following NOAA data the ENSO conditions remain neutral for the week centered on July 6 2016 (with Nino 3.4 remaining constant at -0.4C):

                     Nino1+2      Nino3         Nino34        Nino4
 Week           SST SSTA    SST SSTA   SST SSTA    SST SSTA

 15JUN2016     23.3 0.4     26.6 0.2     27.8 0.2     29.5 0.7
 22JUN2016     22.4-0.1     25.9-0.3     27.2-0.4     29.3 0.5
 29JUN2016     22.6 0.4     25.9-0.1     27.1-0.4     29.1 0.3
 06JUL2016     22.2 0.2     25.5-0.4     27.0-0.4     29.1 0.3

The first two images were issued by the BoM for the week ending July 10 2016, with the first showing the Nino 3.4 remains neutral and the second showing that the IOD is now more negative that it has been in several years.

The last two images were issued by NOAA for the Eq Pac Evolution issued July 11 2016 for the SSTA and the Upper Ocean Heat Content Anom, respectively.  All of this data indicates continuing ENSO neutral conditions for some weeks to come.
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
« Reply #805 on: July 11, 2016, 06:44:36 PM »
The four attached images were all issued today by the BoM for the week ending July 10 2016, and show the Nino 1, 2, 3 & 4, indices respectively.  All plots indicate continuing ENSO neutral conditions.
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
« Reply #806 on: July 11, 2016, 06:55:00 PM »
The first image shows the TAO Eq Pac Subsurface Temp & Temp Anom profiles issued July 11 2016.

The second image shows NOAA Eq Pac Upper Ocean Heat Anom plot issued July 11 2016.

The third image shows the ECMM MJO forecast from July 11 to 25 2016.

The fourth image shows the U at Albany 5S-5N 850-hPa Wind Anom forecast from July 11 to 18 2016.

All of these plots indicate continuing ENSO neutral conditions for some weeks to come.
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
« Reply #807 on: July 12, 2016, 03:23:36 AM »
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM; the 30-day moving average SOI has moved down to +3.7:
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

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Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
« Reply #808 on: July 12, 2016, 06:16:38 AM »
70&10mb winds almost a carbon copy of 2015 when viewed through earth.nullschool.net.
A short follow up to that, here viewed with the graphics presented at the University of Reading.
First picture is their graphics for June 9.
Second is a cross section cut from the approximately same time of last year compared now.

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
« Reply #809 on: July 13, 2016, 03:24:36 AM »
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM; the 30-day moving average SOI has moved up to +4.5:
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
« Reply #810 on: July 14, 2016, 03:34:19 AM »
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM; the 30-day moving average SOI has remained constant at +4.5 (and thus remains ENSO neutral):
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
« Reply #811 on: July 15, 2016, 10:26:23 AM »
Per the attached plot issued yesterday by the BoM; the 30-day moving average SOI has moved down to +3.8:
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
« Reply #812 on: July 16, 2016, 03:26:34 AM »
Per the attached plot issued yesterday by the BoM; the 30-day moving average SOI has drifted up to +3.9:
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

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Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
« Reply #813 on: July 16, 2016, 07:23:11 AM »
So, finally we mere mortals have been blessed with access to ECMWF's July nino plumes. The earlier post with the July Nino34 in Reply #803 was from a tweet by a meteorologist.
The Nino4 is even more interesting.

Edit; here's the June Nino4 posted earlier.
« Last Edit: July 16, 2016, 07:28:18 AM by Sleepy »

Archimid

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Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
« Reply #814 on: July 16, 2016, 04:57:46 PM »
I don't understand what happened in the last leg of observations of the NINO4 SST. The observation blue dotted lines have red dotted lines below it. Does this means that the observations took a  higher path that prior projections?
I am an energy reservoir seemingly intent on lowering entropy for self preservation.

Sigmetnow

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Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
« Reply #815 on: July 16, 2016, 06:55:03 PM »
Quote
Ed Vallee:  Real-time ENSO water temp analysis showing first official #LaNina reading in the 3.4 region today. Must watch trends
https://twitter.com/edvalleewx/status/754319838932262913
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
« Reply #816 on: July 17, 2016, 03:27:56 AM »
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM; the 30-day moving average SOI has moved down to +3.1:
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

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Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
« Reply #817 on: July 17, 2016, 06:29:39 AM »
I don't understand what happened in the last leg of observations of the NINO4 SST. The observation blue dotted lines have red dotted lines below it. Does this means that the observations took a  higher path that prior projections?
You mean the plumes from June?
My earlier comment where I posted that, might help?
http://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,1454.msg82734.html#msg82734

I'll also add a quote from ECMWF:
Quote
The biggest risk factor to the validity of the p.d.f. is the risk that the ENSO SSTs in future years will be biased warm or cold relative to the calibration period for reasons that are missing from the models, or that one or more of the models suffers from some error or mistake that will result in future forecasts being biased relative to model performance in the calibration period.

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Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
« Reply #818 on: July 17, 2016, 06:41:31 AM »
Quote
Ed Vallee:  Real-time ENSO water temp analysis showing first official #LaNina reading in the 3.4 region today. Must watch trends
https://twitter.com/edvalleewx/status/754319838932262913
Better watch trends in the Nino4 region. A quote from NOAA:
Quote
SST values in the Niño 3.4 region may not be the best choice for determining La Niña episodes but, for consistency, the index has been defined by negative anomalies in this area. A better choice might be the Niño 4 region, since that region normally has SSTs at or above the threshold for deep convection throughout the year. An SST anomaly of -0.5°C in that region would be sufficient to bring water temperatures below the 28°C threshold, which would result in a significant westward shift in the pattern of deep convection in the tropical Pacific.
And also attaching CDAS for Nino4 by Levi Cowan.

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
« Reply #819 on: July 18, 2016, 03:26:12 AM »
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM; the 30-day moving average SOI has moved down to +2.4:
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

Apocalypse4Real

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Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
« Reply #820 on: July 18, 2016, 04:32:08 PM »
Decided to blog on Nino 3.4 SST's and what it looks like when we change the base by using the NCDC SST data. The SST data goes back to 1854. The difference is attached for 1981-2010 vs 1854-1883 SSTs and anomalies.

The blog link is: http://www.megiddo666.apocalypse4real-globalmethanetracking.com/2016/07/super-el-nino-over-perhaps-not-base.html

A4R

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
« Reply #821 on: July 18, 2016, 06:08:25 PM »

The following NOAA data indicates that for the week centered on July 13 2016 both the Nino 3.4 & the Nino 3 have drifted down to -0.6:


                     Nino1+2      Nino3         Nino34        Nino4
 Week           SST SSTA    SST SSTA   SST SSTA    SST SSTA
 15JUN2016     23.3 0.4     26.6 0.2     27.8 0.2     29.5 0.7
 22JUN2016     22.4-0.1     25.9-0.3     27.2-0.4     29.3 0.5
 29JUN2016     22.6 0.4     25.9-0.1     27.1-0.4     29.1 0.3
 06JUL2016     22.2 0.2     25.5-0.4     27.0-0.4     29.1 0.3
 13JUL2016     21.8 0.0     25.1-0.6     26.7-0.6     29.1 0.3

Per the first two images issued today by the BoM for the week ending July 17 2016, the first image indicates the Nino 3.4 remains in the neutral range (at -0.21) while the second image indicates that the IOD remains negative.

The last two images were both issued today by NOAA & the third image indicates that the Eq Pac Upper Ocean Heat Anom remains relatively unchanged as is also the case for the Eq Pac SSTA Evolution shown in the fourth image:
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
« Reply #822 on: July 18, 2016, 06:10:56 PM »
The four attached images were all issued by the BoM today for the week ending July 17 2016, for the Nino 1, 2 3 & 4 indices, respectively; and they all indicate ENSO neutral conditions:
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
« Reply #823 on: July 19, 2016, 09:27:01 AM »
Per the attached plot issued yesterday by the BoM; the 30-day moving average SOI has moved down to +1.8:
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
« Reply #824 on: July 20, 2016, 03:29:33 AM »
Per the attached plot issued yesterday by the BoM; the 30-day moving average SOI has remained constant at +1.8:
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

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Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
« Reply #825 on: July 20, 2016, 05:10:19 AM »
June PDO at 2.03°C.
The PDO has now been positive for 30 consecutive months.

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
« Reply #826 on: July 21, 2016, 03:31:31 AM »
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM; the 30-day moving average SOI has drifted up to +2.5:
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

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Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
« Reply #827 on: July 21, 2016, 07:12:02 AM »
QBO.
The multivariate QBO index employs two EOFs that together describe 95.4% of the variance in the winds. MQI phase space. The annotation on the plot indicates the pressure level of the relevant wind extrema (e.g. W50 is a westerly wind max at 50mb).
First picture shows the projected changes, the second July 16, by Sam Lillo.

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Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
« Reply #828 on: July 21, 2016, 08:43:38 AM »
Multi-year persistence of the 2014/15 North Pacific marine heatwave.
http://www.nature.com/nclimate/journal/vaop/ncurrent/full/nclimate3082.html
Paywalled.
Between the winters of 2013/14 and 2014/15 during the strong North American drought, the northeast Pacific experienced the largest marine heatwave ever recorded. Here we combine observations with an ensemble of climate model simulations to show that teleconnections between the North Pacific and the weak 2014/2015 El Niño linked the atmospheric forcing patterns of this event. These teleconnection dynamics from the extratropics to the tropics during winter 2013/14, and then back to the extratropics during winter 2014/15, are a key source of multi-year persistence of the North Pacific atmosphere. The corresponding ocean anomalies map onto known patterns of North Pacific decadal variability, specifically the North Pacific Gyre Oscillation (NPGO) in 2014 and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) in 2015. A large ensemble of climate model simulations predicts that the winter variance of the NPGO- and PDO-like patterns increases under greenhouse forcing, consistent with other studies suggesting an increase in the atmospheric extremes that lead to drought over North America.

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
« Reply #829 on: July 22, 2016, 04:57:00 AM »
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM; the 30-day moving average SOI has moved up to +3.3:
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
« Reply #830 on: July 23, 2016, 03:24:30 AM »
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM; the 30-day moving average SOI has moved up to +4.0:
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

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Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
« Reply #831 on: July 23, 2016, 06:27:06 AM »
Nino4 now at -0.307°C according to CDAS presented by Levi Cowan.

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
« Reply #832 on: July 24, 2016, 03:39:48 AM »
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM; the 30-day moving average SOI has remained constant at +4.0:
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
« Reply #833 on: July 25, 2016, 03:29:18 AM »
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM; for the third day the 30-day moving average SOI has remained constant at +4.0:
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
« Reply #834 on: July 25, 2016, 04:48:40 PM »

Per the following table issued by NOAA today thru the week centered on July 20 2016, the Nino 3.4 & 4 have remained constant:


                     Nino1+2      Nino3         Nino34        Nino4
 Week           SST SSTA    SST SSTA   SST SSTA    SST SSTA
 06JUL2016     22.2 0.2     25.5-0.4     27.0-0.4     29.1 0.3
 13JUL2016     21.8 0.0     25.1-0.6     26.7-0.6     29.1 0.3
 20JUL2016     21.6 0.2     25.1-0.5     26.6-0.6     29.0 0.3

The first two attached plot were issued today by the BoM thru the week ending July 24 2016 show the Nino 3.4 at -0.17 & the IOD at -1.06, respectively.

The last two plots were issued today by NOAA & show the Eq Pac Evolution for the SSTA and the Upper Ocean Heat Anom, respectively.

On balance this information indicates continuing ENSO neutral conditions.

“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
« Reply #835 on: July 25, 2016, 04:51:21 PM »
The four attached plot were all issued today by the BoM thru the week ending July 24 2016, and show the Nino 1, 2, 3 & 4 indices, respectively.  These plots indicate continuing ENSO neutral conditions.
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
« Reply #836 on: July 26, 2016, 03:33:10 AM »
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM; for the third day the 30-day moving average SOI has drifter up to +4.1:
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

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Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
« Reply #837 on: July 26, 2016, 09:12:23 AM »
Nino4 temps going up again (CDAS), equatorial subsurface cold pool slowly tapering off, atmosphere not responding, PDO continously postive, it's the end of July, etc...
2017/18 El Nino?

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
« Reply #838 on: July 27, 2016, 03:22:42 AM »
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM; for the second day the 30-day moving average SOI has remained constant at +4.1:
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

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Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
« Reply #839 on: July 27, 2016, 04:25:29 AM »
QBO, update to #827 above. Sam Lillo keeps updating these graphs via tweets.

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Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
« Reply #840 on: July 27, 2016, 04:39:11 AM »
More on the Nino4 region but a trip back to the former El Nino thread, December 16:th and CFSv2.
http://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,1064.msg67183.html#msg67183
Hotlinking to that graph there:

And attaching the present Nino4 from CFSv2.

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Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
« Reply #841 on: July 27, 2016, 08:02:27 AM »
ENSO-related variation of equatorial MRG and Rossby waves and forcing from higher latitudes.
http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/qj.2842/full
Quote
Abstract
The contrasting behaviour of westward-moving mixed Rossby–gravity (WMRG) and the first Rossby (R1) waves in El Niño (EN) and La Niña (LN) seasons is documented with a focus on the Northern Hemisphere winter. The eastward-moving variance in the upper troposphere is dominated by WMRG and R1 structures that appear to be Doppler-shifted by the flow and are referred to as WMRG-E and R1-E. In the east Pacific and Atlantic the years with stronger equatorial westerly winds, LN in the former and EN in the latter, have the stronger WMRG and WMRG-E. In the east Pacific, R1 is also a maximum in LN. However, R1-E exhibits an eastward shift between LN and EN.

The changes with El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phase provide a test bed for the understanding of these waves. In the east Pacific and Atlantic, the stronger WMRG-E and WMRG with stronger westerlies are in accord with the dispersion relation with simple Doppler-shifting by the zonal flow. The possible existence of free waves can also explain stronger R1 in EN in the Eastern Hemisphere. 1-D free-wave propagation theory based on wave activity conservation is also important for R1. However, this theory is unable to explain the amplitude maxima for other waves observed in the strong equatorial westerly regions in the Western Hemisphere, and certainly not their ENSO-related variation. The forcing of equatorial waves by higher-latitude wave activity and its variation with ENSO phase is therefore examined. Propagation of extratropical eastward-moving Rossby wave activity through the westerly ducts into the equatorial region where it triggers WMRG-E is favoured in the stronger westerlies, in LN in the east Pacific and EN in the Atlantic. It is also found that WMRG is forced by Southern Hemisphere westward-moving wave trains arching into the equatorial region where they are reflected. The most significant mechanism for both R1 and R1-E appears to be lateral forcing by subtropical wave trains.
Plus a quote from within the paper:
Quote
The fact that EN events significantly suppress WMRG waves over the central-eastern Pacific in both winter and summer may have an implication for the stratosphere QBO. Maruyama and Tsuneoka (1988) found that EN events had a connection to longer-lasting QBO westerly/shorter-lasting QBO easterly. This is consistent with the finding here considering that the tropospheric WMRG waves, which propagate upwards and contribute to the easterly momentum acceleration, are suppressed in EN years. In addition, given that Kelvin waves contribute to the westerly momentum acceleration, the QBO difference may also be related to the fact that upper-tropospheric Kelvin waves are substantially enhanced by EN events, as shown in Yang and Hoskins (2013). A modelling study of Maury et al. (2013) indeed showed that ENSO has a substantial influence on stratospheric Kelvin waves.
My bold.

Another recent discussion paper:
Tropical temperature variability and Kelvin wave activity in the UTLS from GPS RO measurements.
http://www.atmos-chem-phys-discuss.net/acp-2016-576/
Quote
Abstract. Tropical temperature variability over 10–30 km and associated Kelvin wave activity is investigated using GPS radio occultation (RO) data from January 2002 to December 2014. RO data are a powerful tool to quantify tropical temperature oscillations with short vertical wavelengths due to their high vertical resolution and high accuracy and precision. Gridded temperatures from GPS RO show strongest variability in the tropical tropopause region (on average 3 K²). Large-scale zonal variability is dominated by transient high-frequency waves (2 K²) and about half of high-frequency variance is explained by eastward traveling Kelvin waves with periods of 7 to 30 days (1 K²). Quasi-stationary waves associated with the annual cycle and inter-annual variability contribute about a third (1 K²) to total resolved zonal variance. High-frequency waves, including Kelvin waves, are highly transient in time. Above 20 km, Kelvin waves are strongly modulated by the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) in stratospheric zonal winds, with enhanced wave activity during the westerly shear phase of the QBO. In the tropical tropopause region, however, peaks of Kelvin wave activity are irregularly distributed in time. Several peaks coincide with maxima of zonal variance in tropospheric deep convection, but other episodes are not evidently related. Further investigations of convective forcing and atmospheric background conditions are needed to better understand variability near the tropopause.
My bold.

Also attaching fig 10 from the discussion paper.
Quote
Figure 10. Time series of daily Kelvin wave variance (thin gray) and smoothed Kelvin wave variance (thick black) at 18 km (top panel) and time series of daily variances of high-pass filtered OLR data between 10°S and 10°N (bottom panel). Green and red lines indicate points of time with smoothed Kelvin wave variance outside of one standard deviation (1.59 K², indicated by the dashed yellow line). Green lines indicate matched peaks between Kelvin wave variance and OLR variance, red lines indicate a peak in Kelvin wave variance but a missing peak in OLR variance. Blue lines in the bottom panel indicate a peak in OLR variance but a missing peak in Kelvin wave variance.

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
« Reply #842 on: July 27, 2016, 11:25:04 AM »
QBO, update to #827 above. Sam Lillo keeps updating these graphs via tweets.

For those who are interested, the following links directly to Sam Lillo's Twitter feed:

https://twitter.com/splillo?lang=en
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
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Sleepy

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Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
« Reply #843 on: July 28, 2016, 05:36:59 AM »
CDAS Nino4 by Levi Cowan.

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
« Reply #844 on: July 28, 2016, 07:01:34 AM »
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM; for the third day in a row the 30-day moving average SOI has remained constant at +4.1:
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
« Reply #845 on: July 29, 2016, 03:30:00 AM »
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM; the 30-day moving average SOI has plunged down to +2.8:
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

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Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
« Reply #846 on: July 29, 2016, 06:10:20 AM »
ESA's SMOS satellite has found a rise in fresh water in the tropical Pacific Ocean during last year's El Niño event.
http://www.esa.int/Our_Activities/Observing_the_Earth/SMOS/SMOS_tracks_Pacific_fresh_water_pools
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The SMOS satellite first acquired sea-surface salinity observations in early 2010 as a weak El Niño was fading out and reversed into a strong La Niña, which lasted until 2012. Lower than usual salinities were observed in early 2010 in the equatorial Pacific as the Western Pacific Fresh Pool extended east. The pool retracted back westward as La Niña settled in.
Last year, a strong El Niño developed again. The central Pacific high salinities disappeared and gave way for the Western Pacific Fresh Pool to reach the Eastern Pacific Fresh Pool. This is the greatest El Niño-related salinity anomaly ever measured at the basin scale.

“Scientists have shown that low-salinity pools modify the ocean’s vertical structure and change the impact of the atmospheric forcing on it,” said Audrey Hasson, researcher at LOCEAN in Paris, France.

“A study combining satellite observations with models is underway to understand the role of salinity in the development of the most recent El Niño event.”

Furthermore, scientists have identified the rain-dominated Eastern Pacific Fresh Pool as an ideal place to carry out experiments to better understand the link between sea surface salinity, freshwater fluxes and the oceanic circulation.

Scientists have not only used SMOS data to examine the extent of the fresh pool at the surface, but also salinity measurements collected by Argo buoys to estimate the depth of the fresh pool.



If someone wish to dive further into the output from ESA's SMOS satellite Proteus:
https://smos.argans.co.uk/

Edit; I'd like to attach the trend from SARAL and SLR in the Pacific as well. Welcome to the Anthropocene.
« Last Edit: July 29, 2016, 06:22:27 AM by Sleepy »

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
« Reply #847 on: July 30, 2016, 03:50:53 AM »
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM; the 30-day moving average SOI has remained constant at +2.8:
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

Gray-Wolf

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Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
« Reply #848 on: July 30, 2016, 07:29:25 PM »
So it is starting to look like my 'Gut' was right and we will not see Nina develop this year ( by the 5 tri monthly period reckoning) with 3.4 now above -0.5 anom? That means it has to reverse back below -0.5 by Tuesday or Aug is also out of reckoning???

Models all seem to be pointing to 3.4 being in positive values by Feb 2017 so we will have quite a wait for any Nina to get sorted into some kind of strength to cover the 5 tri monthly trigger point?

To me PDO flipped positive over 2 years ago and so 'favours' Nino over Nina . To do this Nina's get shoved up into being Nada's and Nada's get pushed up into being Nino's so dropping Nina frequency and increasing Nino's share?

Under PDO-ve we might be in a low grade Nina by now but the PDO/IPO being positive appears to have kibosh-ed that?

Any thoughts?

Also, I know we had a big warm pool in place since 2013 ( at least 2013) and Nino must have depleted this but could we still see the repeat of a big KW event in late Jan/early Feb 2017 as we had seen previously?
« Last Edit: July 31, 2016, 11:30:44 AM by Gray-Wolf »
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AbruptSLR

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Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
« Reply #849 on: July 31, 2016, 09:13:29 AM »
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM; the 30-day moving average SOI has remained constant at +2.8 for the third day:
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson