2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath

[AbruptSLR]

Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM; the 30-day moving average SOI has moved down to +2.5:

[AbruptSLR]

Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM; the 30-day moving average SOI has moved up to +3.0:

[AbruptSLR]

Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM; the 30-day moving average SOI has moved up to +4.1:

[AbruptSLR]

Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM; the 30-day moving average SOI has moved up to +4.6:

[AbruptSLR]

Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM; the 30-day moving average SOI has moved up to +5.1:

[AbruptSLR]

The following table provides NOAA weekly Nino index values thru the week centered on August 24 2016, and shows a Nino 3.4 value of -0.6C.  However, the BoM shows a Nino 3.4 value of -0.42C, with the first two images issued by the BoM for the week ending August 28 2016, for the Nino 3.4 and the IOD, respectively.  The third image shows TAO's Eq Pac Subsurface Temp & Temp Anom profiles issued Aug 29 2016, and the fourth image shows NOAA's Eq Pac Upper Ocean Heat Anom also issued on Aug 29 2016, both of which indicate that the deep cool pool of water is slowly dissipating.  Taken together this information indicates that the ENSO remains on the cool side of neutral:

                     Nino1+2      Nino3         Nino34        Nino4
 Week           SST SSTA    SST SSTA   SST SSTA    SST SSTA
 20JUL2016     21.6 0.2     25.1-0.5     26.6-0.6     29.0 0.3
 27JUL2016     21.3 0.1     24.8-0.6     26.6-0.5     29.0 0.2
 03AUG2016     21.5 0.5     24.7-0.5     26.4-0.5     28.8 0.1
 10AUG2016     21.0 0.1     24.5-0.7     26.3-0.6     28.6-0.1
 17AUG2016     21.1 0.5     24.5-0.5     26.3-0.5     28.7 0.0
 24AUG2016     20.8 0.2     24.4-0.5     26.2-0.6     28.6-0.1

[AbruptSLR]

The four attached images were all issued today by the BoM for the week ending August 28 2016, and show the Nino 1, 2, 3 & 4 indices, respectively.  Taken together this information indicates that the ENSO remains on the cool side of neutral.

[AbruptSLR]

Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM; the 30-day moving average SOI has drifted down to +4.9:

[Lord M Vader]

If a La Niña will develope later this year, I'm inclined to believe it will be a "Modoki La Niña" given the current temp anomalies in the Pacific. From what I have found out, Modoki Niñas for example enhance the possibility for a wintertime positive NAO in western Europe, opposite to the EP based Niña as well as .

I've found following articles discussing Modoki La Niñas. Right now I don't have the time to dig deeper into this so I'm just put the links here for eventual further discussions depending on how the proposed weak La Niña evolves. These articles are free don't need any payment but are open:

http://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s11434-012-5423-5

http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2011JC007304/abstract

http://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s00382-014-2155-z

Best, LMV

[AbruptSLR]

Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM; the 30-day moving average SOI has moved up to +5.4:

[AbruptSLR]

Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM; the 30-day moving average SOI has drifted down to +5.3 (and thus remains ENSO neutral):

[AbruptSLR]

Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM; the 30-day moving average SOI has remained constant at +5.3:

[AbruptSLR]

Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM; the 30-day moving average SOI has moved up to +5.8:

[AbruptSLR]

Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM; the 30-day moving average SOI has moved up to +6.2:

[Sigmetnow]

NASA on the QBO:

A Strange Thing Happened in the Stratosphere

High above Earth’s tropics, a pattern of winds changed recently in a way that scientists had never seen in more than 60 years of consistent measurements.

This disruption to the wind pattern – called the “quasi-biennial oscillation” – did not have any immediate impact on weather or climate as we experience it on Earth’s surface. But it does raise interesting questions for the NASA scientists who observed it: If a pattern holds for six decades and then suddenly changes, what caused that to happen? Will it happen again? What effects might it have?

“The quasi-biennial oscillation is the stratosphere’s Old Faithful,” said Paul Newman, Chief Scientist for Earth Sciences at NASA’s Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, Maryland, and lead author on a new paper about the event published online in Geophysical Research Letters. “If Old Faithful stopped for a day, you’d begin to wonder about what was happening under the ground.”
...
With this disruption now documented, Newman and colleagues are currently focused on studying both its causes and potential implications. They have two hypotheses for what could have triggered it – the particularly strong El Niño in 2015-16 or the long-term trend of rising global temperatures. Newman said the scientists are conducting further research now to figure out if the event was a “black swan,” a once-in-a-generation event, or a “canary in the coal mine,” a shift with unforeseen circumstances, caused by climate change.

http://www.nasa.gov/feature/goddard/2016/a-strange-thing-happened-in-the-stratosphere

[AbruptSLR]

Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM; the 30-day moving average SOI has moved up to +6.7:

[budmantis]

NASA on the QBO:

A Strange Thing Happened in the Stratosphere

Sigmetnow:

What are the implications for this phenomenon or is that an unknown at this point?

[AbruptSLR]

The first two images were issued today by the BoM & show the Nino 3.4 and IOD for the week ending Sept 4 2016.  The third image shows NOAA's Eq Pac Upper Ocean Heat Anom issued Sept 5 2016; while the fourth image shows TAO's Eq Pac Subsurface Temp & Temp Anom profiles also issued Sept 5 2016.  Taken together with the following Weekly Nino data issued by NOAA through the week centered on August 31 2016 (with a Nino 3.4 of -0.7C); this indicates that the ENSO is fluctuating about the cool side of neutral:


                     Nino1+2      Nino3         Nino34        Nino4
 Week           SST SSTA    SST SSTA   SST SSTA    SST SSTA
 27JUL2016     21.3 0.1     24.8-0.6     26.6-0.5     29.0 0.2
 03AUG2016     21.5 0.5     24.7-0.5     26.4-0.5     28.8 0.1
 10AUG2016     21.0 0.1     24.5-0.7     26.3-0.6     28.6-0.1
 17AUG2016     21.1 0.5     24.5-0.5     26.3-0.5     28.7 0.0
 24AUG2016     20.8 0.2     24.4-0.5     26.2-0.6     28.6-0.1
 31AUG2016     20.9 0.3     24.6-0.3     26.0-0.7     28.5-0.1

[AbruptSLR]

The four attached weekly plots were issued today by the BoM for the week ending Sept 4 2016 & show the Nino 1,2, 3 & 4, indices, respectively.  This data indicates that the ENSO continues to fluctuate on the cool side of neutral:

[Lord M Vader]

Latest ONI value for JJA was down to -0,3.

[AbruptSLR]

Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM; the 30-day moving average SOI has moved up to +7.2:

[AbruptSLR]

Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM; the 30-day moving average SOI has moved up to +7.7:

[AbruptSLR]

Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM; the 30-day moving average SOI has moved down to +6.8:

[jai mitchell]

the NOAA ENSO diagnostic analysis has been updated reflecting new model runs that indicate a stronger neutral ENSO this year.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_disc_sep2016/ensodisc.shtml

[Sigmetnow]

CPC's @ejbecker looks at thinking behind cancelling #LaNina Watch

September 2016 ENSO update: Cooling our heels

Since the demise of the big 2015-16 El Niño in April, the tropical Pacific has been loitering around in neutral… and now forecasters think it’s likely to stay that way through the winter. For now, we’re taking down the La Niña Watch, since it no longer looks favorable for La Niña conditions to develop within the next six months.

What happened?

Over the last few months, sea surface temperature anomalies (the departure from the long-term average) in the Niño3.4 region have become more negative, which was expected.  Currently, the sea surface temperature in the Nino3.4 region is about -0.5° below the long-term average, according to the ERSSTv4 data. 

This is the La Niña threshold! However, the second step of the La Niña conditions decision process is “do you think the SST will stay below the threshold for the next several overlapping seasons?” For now, the answer to this question is “no.”

In fact, the dynamical climate models are predicting that this month’s Niño3.4 index will be the low point, and sea surface temperatures will recover to near average over the next few months. There is still a range of forecasts, but all eight of the North American Multi-Model Ensemble models expect the negative anomalies to weaken toward zero.

https://www.climate.gov/news-features/blogs/enso/september-2016-enso-update-cooling-our-heels

[AbruptSLR]

Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM; the 30-day moving average SOI ha drifted down to +6.7:

[AbruptSLR]

NASA on the QBO:

A Strange Thing Happened in the Stratosphere
[

Here is another follow-on article about Newman et al 2016's work on the QBO:

Stanley, S. (2016), Mysterious anomaly interrupts stratospheric wind pattern, Eos, 97, doi:10.1029/2016EO058557.

https://eos.org/research-spotlights/mysterious-anomaly-interrupts-stratospheric-wind-pattern?utm_source=eos&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=EosBuzz090916

Extract: "The weather we experience on Earth typically occurs in the troposphere, the lowest layer of the atmosphere. But the stratosphere, which envelops the planet just above the troposphere, is home to winds of its own. In a new study, Newman et al. report an anomalous interruption in an otherwise reliable stratospheric wind pattern known as the quasi-biennial oscillation.

Each cycle of the quasi-biennial oscillation begins with strong westerly winds that flow through the stratosphere in a belt around the equator. Over the course of about 1 year, these winds gradually weaken and descend in altitude to the lower stratosphere as easterly winds replace them. These easterly winds slowly sink and weaken, too, as westerly winds return. The cycle repeats roughly once every 28 months.
…
The researchers plan to continue analyzing wind and temperature data to determine what caused this anomaly and what its implications may be. Their investigation will include an exploration of possible connections with the 2015–2016 El Niño and climate change."

[Sigmetnow]

All of zero U.S. states were cooler than average this summer.

USA swelters through hottest summer nights in 121 years

Nights provided no relief from the heat this summer: While days were certainly hot across the USA, it was the endless parade of sultry, swampy nights that set an all-time record.

The summer of 2016 recorded hotter nights than any summer since records began in 1895, according to data released Thursday by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.

The national average low temperature rested at a balmy 60.8 degrees, about 2.4 degrees above average, said climate scientist Jake Crouch of NOAA's National Centers for Environmental Information. Meteorologists define summer as the year's warmest months of June, July and August.

The reason for the nighttime swelter, especially in the East, was unusually high levels of humidity due to a persistent flow of moisture-laden air off the Gulf of Mexico and Atlantic Ocean, Crouch said. Temperatures don't drop as much at night when the atmosphere is humid.

The devastating flooding in West Virginia in June, Ellicott City, Md., in July and Louisiana in August were also related to the flow of warm, humid air, Crouch said.

http://www.usatoday.com/story/weather/2016/09/08/usa-summer-climate-report/89998172/


The State of the Climate Summary Information is a synopsis of the collection of national and global summaries released each month.
National Summary Information - August 2016
http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/summary-info/national/201608

[AbruptSLR]

Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM; the 30-day moving average SOI has drifted down to +6.6:

[Lord M Vader]

Strong easterly wind burst in Central Pacific coming up for next week. Dr. Mike Ventrice's hovmoller from U_Albany calls for two weeks with strong easterlies over the area from 150W to the Date Line. See the tweet from Dr. Mike Ventrice: https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/774581178242392064



Interestingly, the cold pool at subsurface have diminished in the Central Pacific and the area with -2^oC temps is more or less gone now. OTOH, the cold pool in the far Western Pacific have strengthened during the last week or so. Interestingly, a small "bridge" with marginally warmer water between the cold pool in the east and the one in west has established during the last few days.

[AbruptSLR]

Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM; the 30-day moving average SOI has moved up to +7.0:

[AbruptSLR]

Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM; the 30-day moving average SOI has moved up to +7.5:

[Sleepy]

NCEI (based on ERSST) has the PDO at -0.66 for August, that's ending a streak of 23 months with positive values.
Nate Mantua (based on OISST) hasn't updated with the August values yet.

[AbruptSLR]

Per the following weekly NOAA Nino data issued today thru the week centered on Sept 7 2016, all Nino values remain unchanged from last week; indicating that the ENSO remains on the cool side of neutral:

                     Nino1+2      Nino3         Nino34        Nino4
 Week           SST SSTA    SST SSTA   SST SSTA    SST SSTA
 27JUL2016     21.3 0.1     24.8-0.6     26.6-0.5     29.0 0.2
 03AUG2016     21.5 0.5     24.7-0.5     26.4-0.5     28.8 0.1
 10AUG2016     21.0 0.1     24.5-0.7     26.3-0.6     28.6-0.1
 17AUG2016     21.1 0.5     24.5-0.5     26.3-0.5     28.7 0.0
 24AUG2016     20.8 0.2     24.4-0.5     26.2-0.6     28.6-0.1
 31AUG2016     20.9 0.3     24.6-0.3     26.0-0.7     28.5-0.1
 07SEP2016     20.8 0.3     24.6-0.3     26.1-0.7     28.6-0.1

The first two images were issued today by the BoM for the week ending Sept 11 2016, for the Nino 3.4 and IOD, respectively (which indicate that the ocean is clearly neutral while the atmosphere has hints of future La Nina tendencies).
The last two images were issued today by NOAA with the third image showing the Eq Pac Upper Ocean Heat Anom (which is becoming less negative), and the fourth image showing that the Eq Pac SSTA Evolution is essentially in a neutral condition.

[AbruptSLR]

The four attached images were all issued today by the BoM for the week ending Sept 11 2016, & show the Nino 1, 2, 3 & 4 indices, respectively; all of which indicate cool but neutral ENSO conditions.

[Lord M Vader]

ASLR, wrt "hints of future La Niña tendencies", it seems like a really strong Easterly Wind Burst (EWB) has started today around the Date Line and should last for about 5 days or so.

Courtesy: U_Albany.



Best, LMV

[AbruptSLR]

Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM; the 30-day moving average SOI has moved up to +8.6 (and is now about the +8.0 threshold for the first time since June 2014):

[AbruptSLR]

Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM; the 30-day moving average SOI has zoomed up to +9.7:

[budmantis]

ASLR: The SOI (southern oscillation index?) has gone up rapidly the last couple of days. From my perspective, it seems extreme, but I've only been observing this for a short time.

[AbruptSLR]

ASLR: The SOI (southern oscillation index?) has gone up rapidly the last couple of days. From my perspective, it seems extreme, but I've only been observing this for a short time.

The SOI is the most volatile ENSO index because it is associated with the atmosphere (rather than the ocean).  if it stays above 8 for a few months then it means something.  In any case the 30-day moving average SOI has zipped up to +10.8:

[budmantis]

Highest since mid-2014.

[AbruptSLR]

Highest since mid-2014.

While the atmosphere may be tilting towards cooler conditions at the moment, the attached NOAA plot of the Eq Pac Upper Ocean Heat Anom issued Sept 15 2016; indicates that the ocean is currently leaning towards neutral conditions.

[AbruptSLR]

Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM; the 30-day moving average SOI has zoomed up to +11.8:

[Sigmetnow]

We Don’t Know If It Will Be Sunny Next Month But We Know It’ll Be Hot All Year
By Gavin Schmidt

To summarize, some key climate statistics are easily predictable far beyond the scales at which weather forecasts are skillful. Those predictions clearly suggest an annual global temperature record in 2016 and a (relative) cooling in 2017, all while the long-term upward trends continue.

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/why-we-dont-know-if-it-will-be-sunny-next-month-but-we-know-itll-be-hot-all-year/

[AbruptSLR]

Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM; the 30-day moving average SOI has moved up to +12.8:

[Sigmetnow]

@simondonner:  Like any good horror movie, the Blob may have a sequel #climate #oceans
https://twitter.com/simondonner/status/776847157030559744

[AbruptSLR]

The linked article is entitled: "Is La Niña Here? Depends Who You Ask":

http://www.climatecentral.org/news/la-nina-forecast-winter-2016-20706

Extract: "According to the Japanese Meteorological Agency (JMA), La Niña has in fact arrived.
The Australian Bureau of Meteorology, another of the big tropical Pacific watchers, still has a La Niña watch in place, but is still waiting for its “official” arrival.
But the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration dropped its La Niña watch last week, indicating that it’s unlikely that a La Niña will form this fall or winter.
All three agencies are looking at the same ocean, but have come to different conclusions about when — or even if — La Niña is going to happen. The main reason comes down to how you define La Niña."

[AbruptSLR]

Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM; the 30-day moving average SOI has drifted down to +12.6:

[AbruptSLR]

The following NOAA ENSO data issued through the week centered on Sept 14 2016, shows cool neutral conditions with the Nino 3.4 increasing slightly from -0.7 last week to -0.6C:


                     Nino1+2      Nino3         Nino34        Nino4
 Week           SST SSTA    SST SSTA   SST SSTA    SST SSTA
 10AUG2016     21.0 0.1     24.5-0.7     26.3-0.6     28.6-0.1
 17AUG2016     21.1 0.5     24.5-0.5     26.3-0.5     28.7 0.0
 24AUG2016     20.8 0.2     24.4-0.5     26.2-0.6     28.6-0.1
 31AUG2016     20.9 0.3     24.6-0.3     26.0-0.7     28.5-0.1
 07SEP2016     20.8 0.3     24.6-0.3     26.1-0.7     28.6-0.1
 14SEP2016     20.6 0.2     24.7-0.2     26.1-0.6     28.5-0.2

The first two plots were issued today by the BoM for the week ending Sept 18 2016, with the first plot showing that the Nino 3.4 drifted down to -0.52C; while the second shows the IOD remained largely unchanged.

The last two plots were issued today by NOAA, with the third showing that the Eq Pac Upper Ocean Heat Anom continues to drift slowly upward, and the fourth showing the Eq Pac SSTA evolution.  All of these plots indicate continuing cool ENSO neutral conditions.

[AbruptSLR]

The four attached plots were all issued today by the BoM showing Nino index data thru the week ending Sept 18 2016; showing the Nino 1, 2 3 &4 indices, respectively.  All data indicates continuing cool ENSO neutral conditions: