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AbruptSLR

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Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
« Reply #950 on: September 20, 2016, 06:56:11 AM »
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM; the 30-day moving average SOI has moved up to +13.0:
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

Lord M Vader

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Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
« Reply #951 on: September 20, 2016, 05:39:30 PM »
To add ASLR's daily reports of the SOI, I notice that the Pacific is cooling down rather quickly now at subsurface. The cold pool in WPAC have strengthened. In addition, we have an easterly wind burst right now piling up warm water further west and more easterlies are under way according to latest forecast from UAlbany. See attached pics. The first shows the forecasted easterlies for the upcoming week, the second one the subsurface temperatures per September 19 while the last one shows subsurface temps per September 4. (OBS! Don't put any attention to the filename,the pics are corrct in their order. However, the filenames are not!)

--> Higher odds for La Niña!



Best, LMV
« Last Edit: September 20, 2016, 05:46:16 PM by Lord M Vader »

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
« Reply #952 on: September 21, 2016, 03:37:30 AM »
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM; the 30-day moving average SOI has moved up to +13.5:
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
« Reply #953 on: September 21, 2016, 03:28:23 PM »
The linked Scribbler article is entitled: "Giant Gravity Waves Smashed Key Atmospheric Clock During Winter of 2016 — Possible Climate Change Link"

https://robertscribbler.com/2016/09/19/giant-gravity-waves-smashed-key-atmospheric-clock-during-winter-of-2016-possible-climate-change-link/

Extract: " …scientists believe that the quasi-biennial oscillation could become more susceptible to similar disruptions as the climate warms. — Physics.org (emphasis added)."
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
« Reply #954 on: September 22, 2016, 04:50:54 PM »
Per the attached plot issued yesterday by the BoM; the 30-day moving average SOI has drifted down to +13.3:
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
« Reply #955 on: September 23, 2016, 03:20:07 AM »
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM; the 30-day moving average SOI has drifted down to +13.2:
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

Sleepy

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Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
« Reply #956 on: September 23, 2016, 07:54:14 AM »
CDAS by Levi Cowan.

Sleepy

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Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
« Reply #957 on: September 23, 2016, 08:13:00 AM »
The Nino plumes from ECMWF.

Pmt111500

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Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
« Reply #958 on: September 23, 2016, 04:08:34 PM »
Quote
@simondonner:  Like any good horror movie, the Blob may have a sequel #climate #oceans
https://twitter.com/simondonner/status/776847157030559744

definitely not ok, but some were mentioning this possibility quite early during the buildup of the Nino. Anthropocene for North Pacific?
Cooling the outside by heat pump.

Lord M Vader

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Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
« Reply #959 on: September 23, 2016, 05:06:18 PM »
Michelle L. Heureux at Climate.gov has a new blog text about the shrinking odds for a La Niña:

https://www.climate.gov/news-features/blogs/enso/incredible-growth-2015-16-el-ni%C3%B1o-followed-incredible-shrinking-la-ni%C3%B1a

Sleepy: yes, a huge jump in the Niño indexes in just a few days.

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
« Reply #960 on: September 24, 2016, 03:25:56 AM »
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM; the 30-day moving average SOI has drifted down to +13.0:
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

Sleepy

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Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
« Reply #961 on: September 24, 2016, 06:35:54 AM »
Michelle L. Heureux at Climate.gov has a new blog text about the shrinking odds for a La Niña:

https://www.climate.gov/news-features/blogs/enso/incredible-growth-2015-16-el-ni%C3%B1o-followed-incredible-shrinking-la-ni%C3%B1a

Sleepy: yes, a huge jump in the Niño indexes in just a few days.
Tack för länken. I've been anticipating a La Nada or weak La Nina conditions all year as you can see in my earlier comments in this thread.  I also posted in the global temperatures thread last week, I can cross post it here as well as it might be more suited in this thread. Är man later o trötter så... ;)

SH & ASLR, I think we might see neutral ENSO conditions throughout 2017, the outlier right now that do predict La Nina conditions for winter is JMA. But SST's in the Nino4 region seems to have bottomed out now. And while there's another subsurface cold pool in the western pacific, it is far from the anomalies we saw earlier this year. Total heat content by TAO/Triton indicates dissipating colder anomalies.
And for the present increase in the SOI, autumn is the usual time for weather patterns to change. More notable is that the SOI has been consistently near zero for June, July and August. Also notable is the rapid phase change in the QBO. Whatever that sudden dive to zero will lead to, it will affect seasonal forecasting since it affects the forecasted NAO. And the QBO used to be the boring old faithful of oscillations. It's not anymore.
Low sea ice favors a strengthened Siberian high and/or a weaker winter polar vortex. A weaker polar vortex will support SSW's, and so on.

2017 will likely not beat 2016, but I see no real stall ahead, we just took another step up in global temperatures. My guess is that 2017 will provide a new record low extent in the Arctic and Antartica will follow within the next four years.

In short, I wish to see a stall ahead but I can't see it right now.

And for those who don't remember, JMA also declared an El Nino in late 2014.
« Last Edit: September 24, 2016, 06:43:11 AM by Sleepy »

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
« Reply #962 on: September 25, 2016, 03:39:02 AM »
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM; the 30-day moving average SOI has drifted down to +12.8:
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

Sleepy

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Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
« Reply #963 on: September 25, 2016, 06:12:48 AM »
The equatorial subsurface cold pool continues it's behaviour of indicating colder anomalies and then warming again, it's doing the latter now according to TAO/TRITON.
More from CDAS. Nino3 now above +0.5°.

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
« Reply #964 on: September 25, 2016, 04:42:50 PM »
Through the end of August 2016, the 12-month running average GMST Anom above pre-industrial is about 1.289C.  Thus in the linked article Scribbler is attempting not to alarm people by conceding in advance that by the end of December 2016 this 12-month running average may (or may not) drop down to 1.2C above pre-industrial values.  It is important to recognize that each incremental increase in GMST incrementally activates many positive feedback mechanisms like more positive PDO values:

https://robertscribbler.com/2016/09/23/la-nina-fizzles-pacific-hot-blob-returns-record-global-heat-likely-to-remain/

Extract: "Despite an obvious relationship between global warming and extreme regional heating events like the hot blob, some prominent media sources continue to link the formation of the hot blob to natural variability without mention of climate change. To do so fails to tell the whole story. Without that 1.2 C warming of the Earth since the 1880s due to our rampant burning of fossil fuels, we would not be seeing so much heat piling up in the northeastern Pacific. As such, the PDO has been put into a kind of climate change hyperdrive. And that’s what’s creating conditions under which these big, dangerous ocean hot blobs continue to grow."
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
« Reply #965 on: September 26, 2016, 03:22:31 AM »
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM; the 30-day moving average SOI has dropped down to +12.1:
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

Sleepy

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Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
« Reply #966 on: September 26, 2016, 06:34:58 AM »
QBO again.
Do strong warm ENSO events control the phase of the stratospheric QBO?
http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2016GL070751/abstract
Quote
Abstract
Although there in general are no significant long-term correlations between the QBO and the ENSO in observations we find that the QBO and the ENSO were aligned in the 3 to 4 years after the three warm ENSO events in 1982, 1997, and 2015. We investigate this indicated relationship with a version of the EC-Earth climate model which includes non-orographic gravity waves. We analyze the modelled QBO in ensembles forced with climatological SSTs and observed SSTs. In the ensemble with observed SSTs we find a strong and significant alignment of the ensemble members in the equatorial stratospheric winds in the 2 to 4 years after the strong ENSO event in 1997. This alignment also includes the observed QBO. No such alignment is found in the ensemble with climatological SSTs. These results indicate that strong warm ENSO events can lock the phase of the QBO.
Quote
Key points:
• In the years after the warm ENSO events, 1982, 1997, and 2015, the QBO
and the ENSO were aligned.
• In climate model ensemble with observed SSTs the QBOs align after a
strong warm ENSO event.
• The climate model with observed SSTs reproduces observed relation between
QBO phase propagation and ENSO.
I'm also quoting the whole introduction as well since it also provides a nice general description:
Quote
The El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO)
are the two most conspicuous modes of variability in the atmosphere. The QBO is a
quasi-periodic oscillation in the tropical stratosphere with a mean period of around 28
months [for a review, see Baldwin et al., 2001]. It is an internal atmospheric mode forced
by waves propagating from the troposphere. The QBO influences the northern hemisphere
extra-tropical stratosphere [Holton and Tan, 1980; Gray et al., 2004] and also impacts the
troposphere. For example, both the strength of the tropical Hadley circulation [Gray et al.,
1992] and the Madden–Julian oscillation [Yoo and Son, 2016] have been reported to be
modulated by the QBO. The ENSO [for a recent review, see Wang et al., 2012] is a coupled
atmosphere-ocean mode in the tropical Pacific featuring a broad temporal spectrum with
a preferred timescale of 3-5 years (Fig. 1). The ENSO has a large effect on weather in the
tropical and extra-tropical troposphere and is also a source of predictability on extended
range time-scales in the extra-tropics. There are also studies that show an effect of the
ENSO on the northern hemisphere stratospheric vortex [van Loon and Labitzke, 1987;
Mitchell et al., 2011]. See the recent paper by Hansen et al. [2015] for further literature
and for a model study of non-linear impacts connected to both the QBO and the ENSO
[Butler et al., 2014].
In spite of the various and extensive impacts of the two modes of variability, and a documented
relationship between the ENSO and the upwelling in the tropical lower stratosphere
[Simpson et al., 2011], there is no observed direct, linear relationship. For example,
the correlation between the MEI (Multivariate ENSO Index) and the zonal mean zonal winds in the equatorial stratosphere is not significantly different from zero (Fig. S1).
However, a relationship between the phase propagation of the QBO and the phase of the
ENSO has previously been found in observations [Taguchi, 2010; Yuan et al., 2014]. This
was further investigated by Schirber [2015] who, in a series of idealized model simulations,
found that the speed of the downward propagation of the westerly QBO depends on the
ENSO conditions.
The present study is inspired by the observation (Fig. 2) that the three strong
warm ENSO events beginning in 1982 [Philander, 1983], 1997 [Wolter and Timlin, 1998;
McPhaden, 1999], and 2015 are accompanied by the same phase of the QBO (positive
index at 50 and 30 hPa). These three warm ENSO events are the strongest in the period
since 1950 where both stratospheric data and the MEI index are available. Together with
the vanishing long-term correlations this suggests a non-linear relationship between the
QBO and the ENSO with only strong ENSO events having an influence.
Studies of the QBO/ENSO relationship are challenged by the relatively short period
with observations and the difficulties in obtaining realistic QBOs in climate models [Gior-
getta et al., 2002]. Version 3 of the climate model EC-Earth (The EC-Earth Consortium’s
climate model) includes non-orographic gravity waves and has a very good representation
of the stratosphere including a spontaneous QBO [Orr et al., 2010]. We will use AMIPtype
(Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project) ensemble experiments to show that
the relationship between the phase-speed of the QBO and the phase of the ENSO is well
represented in the model. We will also demonstrate that the warm ENSO event in 1997
leads to an alignment of the modelled QBOs in the different ensemble members. This latter result and the observed alignment after the warmest ENSO events indicate that
strong warm ENSO events can lock the phase of the QBO.
Also attaching Fig2 from the results.

Pmt111500

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Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
« Reply #967 on: September 26, 2016, 09:22:36 AM »
Thanks, Sleepy, very interesting.
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AbruptSLR

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Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
« Reply #968 on: September 26, 2016, 04:42:27 PM »
The following data shows NOAA's Nino values thru the week centered on Sept 21 2016, which indicates that the weekly Nino 3.4 index moved up to -0.4C:

                     Nino1+2      Nino3         Nino34        Nino4
 Week           SST SSTA    SST SSTA   SST SSTA    SST SSTA
 03AUG2016     21.5 0.5     24.7-0.5     26.4-0.5     28.8 0.1
 10AUG2016     21.0 0.1     24.5-0.7     26.3-0.6     28.6-0.1
 17AUG2016     21.1 0.5     24.5-0.5     26.3-0.5     28.7 0.0
 24AUG2016     20.8 0.2     24.4-0.5     26.2-0.6     28.6-0.1
 31AUG2016     20.9 0.3     24.6-0.3     26.0-0.7     28.5-0.1
 07SEP2016     20.8 0.3     24.6-0.3     26.1-0.7     28.6-0.1
 14SEP2016     20.6 0.2     24.7-0.2     26.1-0.6     28.5-0.2
 21SEP2016     21.2 0.8     24.8-0.1     26.3-0.4     28.5-0.2

The first two images were issued today by the BoM through the week ending Sept 25 2016, & indicate that the Nino 3.4 and the IOD, indices, respectively, moved away from supporting La Nina conditions.

The last two images were issued today by NOAA with the third image showing that the daily  Eq Pac Upper Ocean Heat Anom increased & the last image showing the Eq Pac SSTA Evolution, indicating cool but neutral ENSO conditions.
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
« Reply #969 on: September 26, 2016, 04:44:58 PM »
The four attached images were all issued today by the BoM for the Nino 1, 2, 3 & 4 indices respectively, all of which indicate slightly warming but neutral ENSO conditions.
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

Pmt111500

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Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
« Reply #970 on: September 26, 2016, 05:18:59 PM »
Thanks ASLR for the continued updates on Nino indexes, this is starting to look like La Nada follows, but that's only my gut saying so. Nothing concrete to show for this.

I should clearly re-read the IOD connection to ENSO -article a few years back, I don't remember any details. But this is why we have papers.
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AbruptSLR

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Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
« Reply #971 on: September 27, 2016, 03:47:59 AM »
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM; the 30-day moving average SOI has jumped up to +13.1:
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
« Reply #972 on: September 28, 2016, 03:27:14 AM »
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM; the 30-day moving average SOI has drifted down to +12.9:
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
« Reply #973 on: September 29, 2016, 03:29:05 AM »
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM; the 30-day moving average SOI has drifted down to +12.8:
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
« Reply #974 on: September 30, 2016, 03:19:15 AM »
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM; the 30-day moving average SOI has drifted down to +12.6:
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

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Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
« Reply #975 on: October 01, 2016, 02:13:09 AM »
August PDO index has come in at .52 , the lowest since Feb. 2014. With very warm waters in the Alaskan Gyre ,neutral ENSO and neutral ENSO forecasts the PDO probably will stay positive...
My guess anyway.

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Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
« Reply #976 on: October 01, 2016, 03:25:48 AM »
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM; the 30-day moving average SOI has moved up to +13.1:
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

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Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
« Reply #977 on: October 01, 2016, 09:14:45 AM »
Nino4 below -0.5°C.

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
« Reply #978 on: October 02, 2016, 03:20:12 AM »
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM; the 30-day moving average SOI has moved up to +13.5:
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

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Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
« Reply #979 on: October 03, 2016, 03:35:14 AM »
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM; the 30-day moving average SOI has drifted down to +13.4:
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

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Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
« Reply #980 on: October 03, 2016, 05:00:17 AM »
CDAS Nino 3&4 temps are in free fall. Nino4 at -0.822 now. Positive SOI, trades slightly stronger, cloudiness decreasing. This is the best shot for a La Nina all year.
But looking at the warmer SST's north and south of the equator, the enhanced cloudiness in the western Pacific, the lack of strength in the trades and the colder equatorial subsurface anomalies are dissipating yet again, as they have been doing all summer. I don't think this will be enough, it might just lead to the western Pacific warming up again.

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
« Reply #981 on: October 03, 2016, 04:30:44 PM »
All of the following data and attached images indicate a weekly cooling fluctuation, with over-all conditions remaining ENSO neutral:


                     Nino1+2      Nino3         Nino34        Nino4
 Week           SST SSTA    SST SSTA   SST SSTA    SST SSTA
 31AUG2016     20.9 0.3     24.6-0.3     26.0-0.7     28.5-0.1
 07SEP2016     20.8 0.3     24.6-0.3     26.1-0.7     28.6-0.1
 14SEP2016     20.6 0.2     24.7-0.2     26.1-0.6     28.5-0.2
 21SEP2016     21.2 0.8     24.8-0.1     26.3-0.4     28.5-0.2
 28SEP2016     21.2 0.6     24.7-0.2     25.9-0.8     28.1-0.5

The first two images were issued today by NOAA for the Eq Pac with the first image showing cooling in the Upper Ocean Heat Content, and the second image showing cooling in the SSTA evolution.

The last two images were issued today by the BoM for the week ending Oct 2 2016, with the third image showing neutral Nino 3.4 conditions and the fourth image showing less negative IOD values.
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
« Reply #982 on: October 03, 2016, 04:33:19 PM »
The four attached images were all issued today by the BoM for the week ending Oct 2 2016, showing the Nino 1, 2, 3 & 4 indices, respectively.  Collectively they indicate slight cooling, but continuing ENSO neutral conditions.
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

Lord M Vader

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Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
« Reply #983 on: October 03, 2016, 05:32:50 PM »
Something interesting is that no year since 1971 which has seen a developing La Niña have had more than three Cat 5 in the western Pacific basin. The two La Niña years 1970 and 1971 saw four and five Cat 5s in the western Pacific. However, as there is a known fact that typhoons in the western pacific were overestimated during the 1940's to 1960's I'm not sure whether it might have an overestimation of the typhoon intensity in 1970 and 1971.

From 1973 and onward there have been 12 La Niña years (1973-1975, 1984, 1988, 1995, 1998-2000, 2007 and 2010-2011).

Best, LMV


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Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
« Reply #984 on: October 04, 2016, 03:24:08 AM »
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM; the 30-day moving average SOI has drifted down to +13.3:
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

Lord M Vader

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Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
« Reply #985 on: October 04, 2016, 07:14:44 PM »
Two things, FWIW, JISAO came in with an August PDO value at +0,52.

Second, NOAA reports an ONI-index for the period July, August and September to be -0,5, just at La Niña threshold. However, it needs to remain at or below -0,5 for another four months to be declared a La Niña episod.

//LMV

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
« Reply #986 on: October 05, 2016, 03:20:32 AM »
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM; the 30-day moving average SOI has dropped down to +12.6:
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
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Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
« Reply #987 on: October 06, 2016, 03:25:51 AM »
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM; the 30-day moving average SOI has drifted down to +12.5:
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

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Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
« Reply #988 on: October 07, 2016, 03:24:27 AM »
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM; the 30-day moving average SOI has soared up to +13.6:
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

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Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
« Reply #989 on: October 08, 2016, 03:19:05 AM »
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM; the 30-day moving average SOI has drifted down to +13.5:
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
« Reply #990 on: October 09, 2016, 03:26:51 AM »
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM; the 30-day moving average SOI has moved up to +14.0:
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

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Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
« Reply #991 on: October 10, 2016, 06:08:22 PM »
Generally, the ENSO values cooled last week with both the NOAA and the BoM weekly values for Nino 3.4 below the -0.5 level (see the first image & the table below).  The first two images were issued today by the BoM for the week ending Oct 9 2016, showing the Nino 3.4 and IOD respectively.  The last two images were issued today by NOAA showing the Eq Pacific, Upper Ocean Heat Anom and the SSTA Evolution, respectively, both of which hint that ENSO may be close to reaching a lower plateau.


                     Nino1+2      Nino3         Nino34        Nino4
 Week           SST SSTA    SST SSTA   SST SSTA    SST SSTA

 31AUG2016     20.9 0.3     24.6-0.3     26.0-0.7     28.5-0.1
 07SEP2016     20.8 0.3     24.6-0.3     26.1-0.7     28.6-0.1
 14SEP2016     20.6 0.2     24.7-0.2     26.1-0.6     28.5-0.2
 21SEP2016     21.2 0.8     24.8-0.1     26.3-0.4     28.5-0.2
 28SEP2016     21.2 0.6     24.7-0.2     25.9-0.8     28.1-0.5
 05OCT2016     20.8 0.1     24.3-0.6     25.8-0.9     28.1-0.6
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
« Reply #992 on: October 10, 2016, 06:10:15 PM »
The four attached plots show the weekly Nino 1, 2, 4 & 4 values, respectively, issued today through the week ending Oct 9 2016.  They generally indicate that cooling occurred in the ENSO values last week (with continued ENSO neutral conditions).
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

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Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
« Reply #993 on: October 10, 2016, 09:05:39 PM »
The current SSTAs over the Pacific basin indicats to me that if a La Niña actually developes it should be a Modoki one.

OTOH, there have been a significant cooling of the waters in the Sea of Okhotsk while the anomalies over the Gulf of Alaska seems to have strengthened. Difficult to know what will happens next.

We can be fairly sure that October Niño 3.4 value will be below -0,5 which would guarantee a ONI value less than -0,5 for JAS and ASO.

Best, LMV

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Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
« Reply #994 on: October 11, 2016, 03:27:30 AM »
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM; the 30-day moving average SOI has dropped down to +13.3:
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

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Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
« Reply #995 on: October 11, 2016, 03:31:57 AM »
Per the attached POAMA Nino 3.4 forecast starting Oct 9 2016, we are currently at the bottom of the recent drop in Nino 3.4 values and it will probably start increasing soon.
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

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Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
« Reply #996 on: October 12, 2016, 03:29:55 AM »
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM; the 30-day moving average SOI has plunged down to +11.9 (& based on daily values these 30-day values should continue to fall for some time):
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

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Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
« Reply #997 on: October 13, 2016, 04:05:31 AM »
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM; the 30-day moving average SOI has continued plunging down to +9.9:
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

Lord M Vader

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Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
« Reply #998 on: October 13, 2016, 09:01:46 PM »
NOAA has reissued a La Niña watch today. The odds for a weak La Niña is now 70%. Read more at: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.pdf

The 30-day average SOI values should continue down as the high values seems to be replaced with lower ones for the foreseeble future.

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Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
« Reply #999 on: October 14, 2016, 03:20:57 AM »
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM; the 30-day moving average SOI has continued plunging down to +8.6:
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson