2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath

[AbruptSLR]

Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM; the 30-day moving average SOI has moved up to -3.8:

[AbruptSLR]

Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM; the 30-day moving average SOI has moved rapidly up to -2.6:

[AbruptSLR]

Across the board the ENSO condition for last week fluctuated slightly towards El Nino favoring conditions, while remaining either solidly neutral or weakly La Nina-like.  The first two images are from NOAA for the Eq Pac showing Upper Ocean Heat Anom & SSTA Evolution respectively; while the last two are from the BoM & show the Nino 3.4 & IOD, respectively:

                   Nino1+2      Nino3         Nino34        Nino4
 Week           SST SSTA    SST SSTA   SST SSTA    SST SSTA
 14SEP2016     20.6 0.2     24.7-0.2     26.1-0.6     28.5-0.2
 21SEP2016     21.2 0.8     24.8-0.1     26.3-0.4     28.5-0.2
 28SEP2016     21.2 0.6     24.7-0.2     25.9-0.8     28.1-0.5
 05OCT2016     20.8 0.1     24.3-0.6     25.8-0.9     28.1-0.6
 12OCT2016     21.8 1.0     24.8-0.1     26.1-0.6     28.2-0.4
 19OCT2016     20.7-0.2     24.4-0.6     26.1-0.6     28.4-0.2
 26OCT2016     21.3 0.2     24.4-0.5     25.9-0.8     28.2-0.4
 02NOV2016     21.2 0.0     24.3-0.6     25.8-0.8     28.0-0.6
 09NOV2016     21.8 0.4     24.5-0.4     26.0-0.7     28.1-0.5

[AbruptSLR]

The four attached plots were issued today by the BoM thru the week ending Nov 13 2016, showing the Nino 1, 2, 3 & 4 indices, respectively.  They also fluctuated upwards slightly.

[AbruptSLR]

Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM; the 30-day moving average SOI has remained constant at -2.6:

[AbruptSLR]

Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM; the 30-day moving average SOI has plunged down to -3.9:

[AbruptSLR]

In the linked article entitled: "From Pole to Pole, Global Sea Ice Values are Plummeting", Scribbler notes that La Nina conditions "… tend to push more ocean and atmospheric heat toward the poles — particularly toward the Arctic."

https://robertscribbler.com/2016/11/15/from-pole-to-pole-global-sea-ice-values-are-plummeting/

Extract: "… the trajectory going into 2017 for the Arctic at present doesn’t look very good. Both sea ice extent and volume are now at or well below the previous low marks for this time of year. Remaining thick ice positioned near the Fram Strait generates a physical disadvantage to the ice in general. In addition, NOAA has announced that La Nina conditions are now present in the Equatorial Pacific. And La Nina events tend to push more ocean and atmospheric heat toward the poles — particularly toward the Arctic."

[Lord M Vader]

JISAO came in with a PDO-value at +0,56 which is up from 0,45 for September and +0,52 for August.

In the Western Pacific, temps have increased at depth and this might (or might not) signal a slow warming up of the Pacific.

SOI values continue to be rather low and lower what you would expect from a fullfledged La Niña. Todays and yesterdays value was -27,55 and -18,20. For the last 30 days, 16 of these have been negative and only 3 of them have exceeded +8.

[Gray-Wolf]

http://research.jisao.washington.edu/pdo/PDO.latest

Octobers PDO still positive. 2 more months for a full 3 year stretch of positive values ( the longest contigous run of either sign since 1998...... anyone still think the PDO is negative? ( some posters, on other sites I hasten to add, are adament this is just an interphase 'blip'??).

With PDO positive seeing a predominance of Nino over Nina this current Nina-ish look should be soon over?

[AbruptSLR]

Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM; the 30-day moving average SOI has moved down to -4.5:

[AbruptSLR]

Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM; the 30-day moving average SOI has plunged down to -5.8:

[AbruptSLR]

A relatively warm tongue of deep water can be seen forming in the Western Eq Pac in the first attached TAO Subsurface Temp & Temp Anom Profiles issued today; which appears to be warming the Eq Pac Upper Ocean Heat Anom as indicated by the second image issued by NOAA today.

[AbruptSLR]

Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM; the 30-day moving average SOI has remained constant at -5.8:

[AbruptSLR]

Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM; the 30-day moving average SOI has remained constant at -5.8 for the third day in a row:

[AbruptSLR]

Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM; the 30-day moving average SOI has remained constant at -5.8 for the fourth day in a row:

[AbruptSLR]

Per the following NOAA data and the four accompanying images, the ENSO was neutral last week.  The first two images were issued by NOAA on Nov 21 2016 for the Eq Pac and the first image shows the Upper Ocean Heat Anom & the second the SSTA Evolution.  The last two images were issued by the BoM showing week index data through the week ending Nov 20 2016, with the third image showing the Nino 3.4 and the fourth the IOD, indices respectively:

                     Nino1+2      Nino3         Nino34        Nino4
 Week           SST SSTA    SST SSTA   SST SSTA    SST SSTA
 12OCT2016     21.8 1.0     24.8-0.1     26.1-0.6     28.2-0.4
 19OCT2016     20.7-0.2     24.4-0.6     26.1-0.6     28.4-0.2
 26OCT2016     21.3 0.2     24.4-0.5     25.9-0.8     28.2-0.4
 02NOV2016     21.2 0.0     24.3-0.6     25.8-0.8     28.0-0.6
 09NOV2016     21.8 0.4     24.5-0.4     26.0-0.7     28.1-0.5
 16NOV2016     21.5-0.1     24.7-0.3     26.2-0.4     28.3-0.3

[AbruptSLR]

The four attached images were all issued today by the BoM shown weekly Nino index data through the week ending Nov 20 2016 & show the Nino 1, 2, 3 & 4 indices respectively.  This data all indicates cool but ENSO neutral conditions:

[Lord M Vader]

BAMS with for ex. Emily Becker, Michelle L'Heureux and Mike Halpert at NOAA as well as other people from Australian Bureau of Meteorology) released a preliminary accepted article about El Niño 2015-16:

Observing and Predicting the 2015-16 El Nino

http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/pdf/10.1175/BAMS-D-16-0009.1

Interesting reading indeed for us who like El Niño!

Best, LMV

[AbruptSLR]

Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM; the 30-day moving average SOI has remained constant at -5.8 for the fifth day in a row:

[AbruptSLR]

Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM; the 30-day moving average SOI has drifted up to -5.2:

[AbruptSLR]

Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM; the 30-day moving average SOI has remained constant at -5.2 for the second day in a row:

[AbruptSLR]

Per the attached plot issued yesterday by the BoM; the 30-day moving average SOI has remained constant at -5.2 for the third day in a row:

[AbruptSLR]

Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM; the 30-day moving average SOI has drifted down to -5.3:

[AbruptSLR]

Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM; the 30-day moving average SOI has soared up to -2.7:

[AbruptSLR]

Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM; the 30-day moving average SOI has soared up to -1.4:

[AbruptSLR]

Per the following NOAA weekly Nino indices data and the attached plots (with the first two for the Eq Pac per NOAA with the first of the Upper Ocean Heat Anom and the second of the SSTA Evolution, both issued today) (& the last two from the BoM for the week ending Nov 27 2106, with the third of the Nino 3.4 index and the fourth of the weekly IOD), we are currently in a cool neutral ENSO condition:

                     Nino1+2      Nino3         Nino34        Nino4
 Week           SST SSTA    SST SSTA   SST SSTA    SST SSTA

 26OCT2016     21.3 0.2     24.4-0.5     25.9-0.8     28.2-0.4
 02NOV2016     21.2 0.0     24.3-0.6     25.8-0.8     28.0-0.6
 09NOV2016     21.8 0.4     24.5-0.4     26.0-0.7     28.1-0.5
 16NOV2016     21.5-0.1     24.7-0.3     26.2-0.4     28.3-0.3
 23NOV2016     21.6-0.3     24.7-0.3     26.3-0.4     28.3-0.3

[AbruptSLR]

The four attached weekly Nino indices plots thru the week ending Nov 27 2016, were issued today by the BoM showing the Nino 1, 2, 3 & 4 indices, respectively.  All plots confirm that we are in ENSO neutral conditions.

[AbruptSLR]

Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM; the 30-day moving average SOI has soared up to -0.1:

[AbruptSLR]

Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM; the 30-day moving average SOI has remained constant at -0.1:

[Lord M Vader]

During the two latest positive phases of PDO, there hasn't been a "double up" La Niña (after checking NOAAs ONI-values back to 1950 and Eric Webbs analysis from 1925 and forward. I didn't check the period before as the values there should be of much higher uncertainty.

This is interesting as we now are in the positive phase since early 2014. And if a La Niña actually will be classified in a retrospective view, the odds for a "double" La Niña should be small, given that we will continue to be in the positive phase!

/LMV

[AbruptSLR]

Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM; the 30-day moving average SOI has remained constant at -0.1 for a third day in a row:

[Gray-Wolf]

During the two latest positive phases of PDO, there hasn't been a "double up" La Niña (after checking NOAAs ONI-values back to 1950 and Eric Webbs analysis from 1925 and forward. I didn't check the period before as the values there should be of much higher uncertainty.

This is interesting as we now are in the positive phase since early 2014. And if a La Niña actually will be classified in a retrospective view, the odds for a "double" La Niña should be small, given that we will continue to be in the positive phase!

/LMV

using the jsao values;

http://research.jisao.washington.edu/pdo/PDO.latest

if November and December remain positive then this current run will be the longest contiguous run of any sign since 98'. I only mention it as some deniers are claiming PDO-ve with the past 3 years being just an 'inter-phase phase'?

Seeing as IPO flipped at the same time I'm wondering if the paper looking at 'dimming' and IPO/PDO was onto something and it was the explosive expansion in brown coal use , across China, that forced us into a deep IPO-ve ( and so pushed PDO that way?) and that the 'flip is also a sign that 'Dimming' is on the decline and so we will now begin to feel the full impacts of our current GHG forcing?

[Lord M Vader]

First, the last two days there have been a significant bump up in the SSTA in the Niño 3-area with about 0,6^o. This is also reflected in the Niño 3.4-values. No really strong trades are foreseen in the Pacific over the next week and the question is whether this episode with "La Niña conditions" is over for this time or if we are going to see an evolution like back in 1983 when a moderate La Niña did develope by fall 1984.

According to Mike Ventrice tweet from Nov 9, the NMME is foreseeing a flip into negative PDO in March 2017: https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/796359781422272513

If this string with positive PDO continues and we don't see a flip back to consequently negative PDO value, I think we'll see the full impact of GHG. With +PDO, we can look forward to a higher frequency of El Niños. And a big ramp up in the GMSTA. Don't be surprised if we would see a 0,5-1,0^oC increase in the global temperatures with a +PDO until the next big flip to -PDO occurs.

[AbruptSLR]

Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM; the 30-day moving average SOI has drifted down to -0.7:

[AbruptSLR]

Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM; the 30-day moving average SOI has dropped down to -1.5:

[AbruptSLR]

Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM; the 30-day moving average SOI has drifted down to -1.6:

[Sigmetnow]

Eric Holthaus: Future Cyclone Vardah doesn’t look good for India. Possibility of hurricane-strength (>120kph) winds at landfall next Wed or Thurs.
https://twitter.com/ericholthaus/status/805261819237388288

[AbruptSLR]

Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM; the 30-day moving average SOI has drifted down to -1.7:

[AbruptSLR]

Per the following NOAA Nino indices data through the week centered on Nov 30 2016, and all of the attached images, ENSO is currently neutral & is likely to stay that way for some time to come.  The first & second images were issued today by NOAA for the Eq Pac showing the Upper Ocean Heat Anom, and the SSTA Evolution, respectively.  The last two images were issued by the BoM for the week ending Dec 4 2016, showing the Nino 3.4 & IOD indices, respectively.


                     Nino1+2      Nino3         Nino34        Nino4
 Week           SST SSTA    SST SSTA   SST SSTA    SST SSTA
 09NOV2016     21.8 0.4     24.5-0.4     26.0-0.7     28.1-0.5
 16NOV2016     21.5-0.1     24.7-0.3     26.2-0.4     28.3-0.3
 23NOV2016     21.6-0.3     24.7-0.3     26.3-0.4     28.3-0.3
 30NOV2016     22.2 0.1     24.5-0.5     26.2-0.4     28.4-0.2

[AbruptSLR]

The four attached images were issued today by the BoM showing Nino 1, 2, 3 & 4, indices respectively, through the week ending Dec 4 2016.  These all indicate neutral ENSO conditions.

[AbruptSLR]

Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM; the 30-day moving average SOI has drifted up to -1.2:

[Lord M Vader]

Australian BoM reports that "La Niña no longer likely in the coming months".

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/#tabs=Overview

[Gray-Wolf]

I cannot say I'm surprised L.M.V. ( see my posts dotted through the thread?) as I always thought we would end up going Nino to Nino and it is just that time span that was difficult to figure?

To me it will be whether global temps, with the help of reducing dimming and Arctic Amplification, overtake the Nino high point prior to the nino ?

[AbruptSLR]

Per the following data issued today by the BoM; the 30-day moving average SOI has drifted down to -1.3:

20161106,20161205,-1.3


Edit: See the associated plot

[AbruptSLR]

Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM; the 30-day moving average SOI has drifted down to -1.4:

[Lord M Vader]

According to NOAA, there is a 30% likelihood of a new El Niño during JJA in 2017. Ony a 15% shot for La Niña and about a 55% chance of neutral conditions. Interestingly, if one look at the ONI numbers for the period 1950-2016 it appears that there are seven years which have been completely neutral: 1960-1962, 1981, 1990, 1993 and 2013.

//LMV

[AbruptSLR]

Per the attached plot issued yesterday by the BoM; the 30-day moving average SOI has drifted up to -0.9:

[AbruptSLR]

Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM; the 30-day moving average SOI has drifted up to -0.4:

[AbruptSLR]

Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM; the 30-day moving average SOI has drifted up to +0.1:

[AbruptSLR]

Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM; the 30-day moving average SOI has drifted down to +0.0: